Winchester, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

969
FXUS65 KVEF 150520
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
855 PM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonably warm conditions continue through
tomorrow. Unsettled weather begins Wednesday and will last through
Saturday. This will bring periods of increasing winds, cooler
temperatures, showers and mountain snow, and potentially a few
thunderstorms. Return to milder and quieter weather from Sunday into
next week.
&&


.UPDATE...Widespread mid-level and high clouds out there this
evening as a shortwave pivots around the larger cutoff low to the
west. Dry low-levels have kept the light returns seen on radar as
virga rather than rain, but cannot rule out a few sprinkles tonight,
especially in the higher terrain. Virga and/or light showers
possible again tomorrow, mainly across the southern Great Basin and
Sierra. Better precipitation chances develop Wednesday - Friday as
the cutoff low finally moves inland and merges with another system
over our area. Isolated to scattered showers (and maybe a few
storms) are expected each day, with the best chances across the
southern Great Basin and northwestern Arizona. Gusty winds and much
cooler temperatures are also expected during this time. By the
weekend, the system exits our area, resulting in drier conditions
and moderating temperatures.
&&


.SHORT TERM...Through Tuesday Night...
Over the next couple of days, the main weather feature of note
will be a slow moving cutoff low off the California coast. This
feature is poised to bring gradually increasing moisture and
mid/high level cloudiness. It will also maintain temperatures at
or just above seasonal normals. A compact upper wave will lift
northward across the region this evening and overnight. While
moisture is quite limited, sufficient lift will allow for the
development if isolated to scattered showers. Recent hi-res
ensembles continue to depict an arc of shower activity lifting
across southern Nevada and western Arizona this evening into
tonight. An assessment of the environment below the mid levels
reveals significant moistening will be needed for any
precipitation to reach the surface, thus confidence is quite low
in any location receiving much in the way of rain. Those areas
that do will likely be confined to the higher elevations. Due to
the evaporative potential, any shower may produce brief gusty
winds, but otherwise be of little impact.


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through the weekend...
As we eclipse the halfway mark of this week, a more active
pattern look to take shape. This will come as the closed upper low
gradually moves onshore and phases with an even stronger upper
storm digging in from the Pacific Northwest on Friday. The result
of this will be a prolonged period of unsettled weather for the
latter half of the week. This will include increasing
probabilities for impactful wind gusts of 30-40 mph or greater
(30-50%), precipitation totals of 0.1-0.2 inches or more (20-40%
lower elevation, greater in the high terrain), and accumulating
mountain snow. In addition, increasing moisture coupled with
enhanced lift and some heating will result in modest instability
Wednesday through Friday, with at least a 10-20% chance of
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Will continue to monitor this
potential as we go through the week. By Sunday, this system looks to
move east, bringing in a period of quieter weather and gradually
warming conditions into the first of next week.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Light winds persist this evening but southerly or
southeasterly winds with intermittent higher gusts to 15-20 kt are
still possible overnight as some virga moves through aloft. There
will be plenty of high level clouds through the overnight with
ceilings around 15kft. After 10Z, winds again become light, before
redeveloping out of the southeast after daybreak. Less cloud cover
anticipated tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...At KVGT and KHND,
generally under 10 kts through a period of gusty southerly winds
remains possible through 10z. Otherwise, decreasing clouds expected
by daybreak with southerly or southeasterly winds expected during
the day at most of the regional terminals, with gusts of 15 to 20
knots possible.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Woods
DISCUSSION...Austin
AVIATION...Outler

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