Fernley, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

838
FXUS65 KREV 141032
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
232 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mild and and dry through Sunday, with patchy freezing fog this
  morning in Sierra valleys. Now is the time to prepare for the
  upcoming winter storm.

* Winds increase across Sierra ridges tonight, with further
  strengthening Monday through Tuesday. Periods of gusty winds mix
  down to lower elevations late Monday into Tuesday.

* Snow reaches the Sierra Sunday night, with the highest snowfall
  rates Monday through Tuesday night. Lower elevation snow is most
  likely from Monday night through Tuesday. Cold weather and
  lingering snow impacts continue through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We`ll squeeze out a couple more dry and mild days before a winter
blast comes not only for the Sierra, but also spreading into the
lower elevations of western NV/eastern CA, as a deepening low
pressure trough digs southward from the eastern Pacific.

While we have been dealing with timing challenges for this change
to the stormy pattern, there are some areas where confidence is
improving.

* Sunday Night-Monday Afternoon:

The first push of snow is on track to reach northeast CA and the
Tahoe region during the late evening/overnight hours, then extend
into Mono County by early Monday morning. Snow is expected to
continue through the day Monday with periods of heavy snow for
a majority of the Winter Storm Watch area. For lower elevations,
rain and snow is on tap for much of Monday, especially for
northwest and far western NV where the setup is more favorable
for moisture spilling over from the Sierra. While snow levels are
currently setting up in the 5000-5500 ft range, they may drop
below 5000 feet at times during periods of heavier precip rates.
This is an additional wild card where if enough cold air can
filter into the valleys when the precip begins and intensifies,
more valleys areas could end up with snow through Monday as well.

Gusty winds (up to 40 mph for valleys and 60-80 mph for Sierra
ridges) will accompany this first wave of storm activity,
although the peak speeds are more likely for the next phase of the
storm.

* Monday Evening-Tuesday Night:

This is the time frame where travel across the Sierra will be
most dangerous, with heaviest snowfall rates (up to 3"/hour at
times), peak winds producing whiteout conditions, and colder
temperatures. See the Winter Storm Watch for the current storm
total snowfall and wind gust projections.

For the lower elevations, the largely snow-free winter so far will
change as snow levels drop to most valley floors from Monday
evening through the overnight hours (if not already there prior to
this time frame). Both commutes on Tuesday are on track to be
slick and hazardous across the main urban areas of far western NV,
while for the Basin and Range the Tuesday evening commute is more
likely to be impacted. Snow amounts continue to be a moving target
with the storm still a few days away, although the probability of
2+" of snow for foothill locations and around Virginia City is
80+ percent, with 30-70% chance for the Greater Reno/Carson metro
areas. Higher end snow scenarios (90th percentiles) could bring
4-8" totals for the Reno/Carson vicinity and 8" or more for
foothills/Virginia City.

Also complicating the travel hazards will be strong wind gusts
producing blowing and drifting snow, and overnight temperatures
well below freezing in all areas.

* Wednesday-Thursday and beyond:

Cold conditions continue with periods of snow showers producing
additional light-moderate accumulations for the Sierra, and spotty
light accumulations for lower elevations at times from Wednesday
into Thursday. Even though snowfall rates are less likely to
reach the intensity compared to Monday-Tuesday, any new snow that
falls will readily stick to most surfaces and produce slick and
icy conditions, especially at night. We may see a drying trend
toward next weekend, although some scenarios indicate additional
weaker storms dropping in from the northwest, keeping the threat
of snow showers going especially for areas north of I-80. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions prevail across the region through Sunday, with
  thicker mid-high level cloud cover through much of today and
  tonight, before a short clearing period Sunday ahead of the main
  storm. Patchy freezing fog still has a 30-50% chance of
  producing IFR/LIFR at KTRK this morning between 10-14Z, although
  coverage and duration may be limited by the incoming higher
  level cloud cover.

* S-SW Winds increase aloft through the weekend with FL100 wind
  gusts up to 55 kt tonight into Sunday. Afternoon surface gusts
  up to 20-25 kt each day through Sunday, leading to increasing
  turbulence and periods of LLWS even before the main storm
  arrives Sunday night.

* A major winter storm moves into the region from Sunday night
  through midweek, producing widespread aviation impacts for all
  main terminals, with the greatest overall impacts for Sierra
  sites. See main discussion for additional details.

MJD

&&

.AVALANCHE...

A major winter storm will move into all avalanche center terrain
starting Sunday night, with the most widespread and heaviest snow
projected from Monday-Tuesday night.

* Timing/snowfall rates: Snow looks to push into SACs terrain
  Sunday night, then reaching BAC/ESAC areas by early Monday
  morning. Snow then becomes mainly continuous for all areas, with
  rates of 1-2"/hour at times through Monday afternoon, increasing
  to potentially 2-3"/hour for portions of Tuesday-Tuesday night.

* SWE/Snowfall totals: SWE of 2-4", locally higher up to 5"
  currently favoring SAC terrain. Storm total snowfall from
  Sunday night-Wednesday morning projected to range from 2-4 feet,
  with pockets of 5 or more feet for higher peaks.

* Snow-Liquid Ratios (SLR): SLRs at the storm`s onset a higher
  density 8-11:1 through Monday morning, then to a more powdery
  12-16:1 as the colder air arrives from Monday evening onward.

* Ridge Top Winds: Before the storm, south winds increase for
  tonight with gusts 50-65 mph. The main push of winds arrives
  Monday and continues through Tuesday night, with periods of peak
  gusts 100+ mph mainly from the southwest.

MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Wednesday evening
     NVZ002.

CA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Wednesday evening
     CAZ071>073.

&&

$$