Waverly, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

685
FXUS63 KOAX 171950
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
250 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather potential returns Sunday evening into the
  overnight period (15-30% chance), especially in southeast NE
  and southwest IA. Hail will be the primary hazard, though
  strong winds and brief tornado will be possible.

- Additional severe weather chances are present Monday afternoon
  and evening (15-30% chance), primarily in southeast NE and
  southwest IA.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday through Wednesday will
  bring the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flooding
  concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Short Term (Today and Tomorrow)

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a departing low over the
Great Lakes region and an incoming mid-level trough dipping into the
Intermountain West. At the surface, high pressure continues to build
in behind the exiting low, resulting in pleasant afternoon
conditions and gradually calming northerly winds. Afternoon high
temperatures are expected to range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Storm chances return Sunday as the aforementioned western trough
shifts eastward, spinning up a surface low over eastern Colorado.
This low is expected to track northeastward, drawing a warm front
eastward, likely setting up near the NE/KS border. Moisture
transport will increase throughout the day, leading to increasing
cloud cover and the potential for a few light scattered afternoon
rain showers (PoPs 15%). Highs are expected to peak in the 70s.

The northward extent of the warm front will be the key in determining
the severe weather threat tomorrow evening and overnight. Areas
along and south of the front will see increasing instability during
the afternoon, with SBCAPE values of 1250-2500 J/kg, steep mid-level
lapse rates (7.5-9 deg/km), and deep-layer shear exceeding 45 kts.
Surface-based convection will be possible for areas along and south
of the front, posing more of a risk for all hazards. Most CAMs
currently keep the warm front and associated instability near the
NE/KS border; however, any northward or southward shift will need
close monitoring.

North of the warm front, a strengthening low-level jet and
sufficient elevated instability will support a few organized storms
during the evening and overnight hours, with hail being the primary
hazard. That being said, a nonzero risk for damaging winds and an
isolated tornado remains. The SPC maintains a Slight Risk (level 2
out of 5) for severe weather generally along and south of a line
from Albion to Omaha, NE to Red Oak, IA. Coverage of showers and
storms will increase through the evening, with PoPs of 70-95%.

Additionally, heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns are
present. Multiple rounds of showers and storms, combined with
precipitation water values of 1.25-1.50 inches and a deep warm cloud
depth, may lead to localized heavy rainfall, particularly across
southeast NE and southwest IA.

Long Term (Monday and Beyond)

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Monday
morning, with a brief lull possible during the late morning and
early afternoon before the potential for strong to severe storms
returns. Several uncertainties remain regarding Monday`s setup.
Ongoing moisture transport will bring dew points into the 60s across
much of the region. However, lingering morning showers and cloud
debris may limit destabilization in some areas. High temperatures
are expected to range from the 60s in areas where cloud cover
lingers and the 80s where sunshines breaks through.

The aforementioned surface low is forecast to move into central
Nebraska by the afternoon, establishing a narrow corridor of SBCAPE
potentially exceeding 2500-3000 J/kg across eastern NE and southwest
IA. Forcing will be sufficient to support organized surface-based
convection capable of all hazards. The SPC has an enhanced risk
(level 3 out of 5) for severe weather in extreme southeast NE and a
slight risk (level 2 out of 5) to much of eastern NE and southwest
IA.

Localized flooding concerns remain as well, with PWAT values ranging
from 1-1.50 inches. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
increase in coverage (PoPs 70-90%) and continue through the
overnight hours and into early Tuesday, although the severe weather
threat is expected to diminish into early Tuesday.

Tuesday will feature lingering showers and cloud cover, keeping high
temperatures cooler, mainly in the 50s and 60s. Rainfall amounts
over the next several days will be highly dependent on the placement
of heavier convection. Both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance
indicate generally a 50-70% chance of precipitation totals
exceeding 1 inch, with locally higher amounts possible.

A few additional showers and thunderstorms may develop on Wednesday
(PoPs 30%) on the back side of the departing low, with highs
generally in the 60s. By late Wednesday into Thursday, surface high
pressure is expected to build into the area, bringing mostly clear
conditions and highs rebounding into the 70s. Looking ahead, a
shortwave trough tracking across the northern Plains will bring a
chance for showers Thursday night into Friday (PoPs 20-30%), with
some lingering light precipitation possible into the weekend. Severe
weather potential with this passage remains low in this extended
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. Winds will be the primary concern this afternoon.
Northerly to northwesterly winds will continue above 12 kts,
gusting up to 25-30 kts, before gradually calming through the
afternoon. Winds are expected to calm under 12 kts at all
terminals by 20-01Z. Skies will remain mostly clear, with a few
mid to upper level clouds passing by. Winds will gradually veer
to southeasterly overnight, increase in strength again late
tomorrow morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood