Papillion, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

964
FXUS63 KOAX 211121
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
521 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will slowly warm heading into the weekend, with
  highs Saturday expected to be in the upper 40s/low 50s.

- A cold front Sunday afternoon will usher in another polar
  airmass to the region, dropping high temps for next week into
  the 30s and lows into the 10s/low 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Longwave ridging over the central CONUS will bring a period of
quiet weather for the next few days. As high pressure shifts
east, southerly winds will allow us to gradually warm up heading
into Saturday. Saturday afternoon highs are expected to be in
the upper 40s and low 50s.

On Sunday, a negatively tilted shortwave trough is expected to
eject out into the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold
front will sweep northwest to southeast across our area. No
precipitation is expected with this system. With the cold front
moving through during the afternoon, there will be substantial
spread in afternoon highs across the region. Portions of
northeast Nebraska will struggle to warm into the mid 40s, while
locations in far southeast Nebraska will reach near 60 degrees.

Post-frontal temperatures will be much more seasonal, if not
slightly below average. High temperatures next week look to be
in the 30s, with lows in the 10s and lower 20s. Upper-level flow
also looks to be more zonal by next work week, suggesting there
may be increased potential for low-amplitude short waves to
bring periods of clouds, maybe some light precip to the region,
particularly by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

IR satellite and surface observations as of 5 AM (11z) indicate
a fragmented cloud deck (FL017-023) over far eastern NE and
western IA. Model soundings suggest that any MVFR ceilings are
likely to remain to the east of KOFK and KLNK. However, it
appears that KOMA could see periodic MVFR ceilings through about
16z. Have deliberated between using a TEMPO group or indicating
prevailing MVFR conditions, and the latest model data argue for
the latter. Otherwise, gusty northwest winds this morning are
expected to diminish this afternoon into evening.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Darrah
AVIATION...Mead