Ogallala, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

790
FXUS63 KLBF 141157
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
557 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be well above normal through Tuesday with daily
  highs running 20 to 30 degrees above normal.

- Record or near record high temperatures are possible Sunday along
  with near critical to critical fire weather conditions.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
  Monday with near critical to critical fire weather conditions
  possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

- The threat for precipitation will increase toward the end of
  next week, however, confidence in widespread beneficial
  precipitation is low.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

H5 analysis tonight had a split flow pattern across the
western CONUS, with the northern and southern streams combining
along the east coast of the CONUS. A trough of low pressure
extended from Quebec south to around Bermuda. West of the trough
low amplitude ridging extended from eastern Texas, north to
eastern South Dakota. West of this ridge, a southern stream
trough of low pressure extended from Utah, south to northern
portions of the Gulf of California. Ridging was present across
central California, northeast into northern Nevada. West of this
feature, a positively tilted trough of low pressure was present
from northwestern British Columbia, to approximately 700 miles
off the coast of northern California. In advance of the
southwestern CONUS trough, a broad plume of mid and upper level
moisture was present from Arizona-east and northeast into the
central and southern Rockies and central and southern plains.
Across western and north central Nebraska tonight, abundant mid
and upper level clouds continued to infiltrate the area from the
southwest. Overnight, a broad area of convection had developed
off to the south of the area in western Texas, western Oklahoma
into southern Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Surface low pressure will track along the Kansas/Oklahoma
border today. A broad shield of precipitation will lift north
approaching the KS/Nebraska border around sunrise Saturday. As
this precipitation lifts north, it will encounter drier air in
the lower levels. This dry air will inhibit the northward
progression of precipitation this morning, confining
precipitation to southern Nebraska. Looking at the deterministic
solns tonight, including the GFS, NAM and HRRR, the threat for
precipitation across the forecast area has shrunk further south.
That being said, will limit pops to south of a line from Hayes
Center to Oconto. Went ahead and eliminated sprinkles from the
forecast as dry air will lead to a sharp cutoff in precipitation
on the the northern periphery of the precipitation shield.
Skies will clear by midday across most of the forecast area, so
their impacts on high temperatures today should be limited. The
inherited forecast had highs around 60 today and this is in line
with the NBM and latest statistical MET and MAV guidance. That
being said, no changes were made to the high temperature
forecast for today. Winds will shift around to the west tonight
as low pressure develops over southeastern Montana. The light
westerly winds, drier air and clear skies, will allow lows to
hit the mid 20s across the area. On Sunday the forecast area
will be east of a surface trough and northwest of a surface high
over Oklahoma. This will lead to a decent surface pressure
gradient across the area Sunday afternoon. The southwesterly and
westerly winds will also force very dry boundary air east of
the Panhandle. As highs reach into the mid and upper 60s Sunday
(record breaking for North Platte and Valentine), minimum RH
will fall off to 15 to 20 percent across a large portion of the
area. Looking at bufkit forecast soundings Sunday afternoon,
there is decent potential for wind gusts in the 20 to 30 MPH
range...mainly over the western 3/4ths of the forecast area. As
for highs Sunday, utilized a blend of the NBM and NBM50%ile.
This brought highs more in line with the statistical MET and MAV
numbers. For the wind forecast, the NBM seemed to initialize
too low on speeds, so utilized the 75th%ile NBM winds for the
forecast. In case you were wondering, record highs for North
Platte and Valentine are 67 and 66 respectively. For Broken Bow
and Imperial, they are 74 and 73, and believe we should fall
short with our forecast of upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A well defined upper-trough will be advancing onto the west coast
Sunday night into Monday. Very warm temperatures are expected across
the area Monday as broad upper-level ridging dominates the central
Plains downstream of the trough. Lee cyclogenesis will occur through
the day Monday across eastern Colorado as the upper flow gradually
becomes more southwest later in the day ahead of the approaching
western CONUS trough. Despite the warm temperatures and low
humidity, fire weather concerns appear elevated at best Monday as
winds will be light. Winds will gradually increase some by the
afternoon from the south-southeast as the surface low deepens. This
will also advect some limited Gulf moisture into the area,
especially by Monday evening. It appears that dew points will rise
into the middle 30s Monday night as south-southeast low-level flow
continues through the night. With the increase in moisture and
southerly flow, a very mild night is expected, with lows likely to
remain above the freezing mark at most locations.

Attention turns to fire weather Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
As the surface low tracks off to the northeast of the area. Strong
gusty west winds are likely to develop Tuesday afternoon and
continue through Wednesday. Continue above average temperatures will
combine with low relative humidity and the gusty winds. This could
bring near critical or even critical conditions to parts of the
area. Latest model consensus is for very dry air to advect eastward
Tuesday afternoon as a deep surface low tracks across northern
Nebraska to western Iowa by late afternoon. Dew points falling into
the single digits west of Highway 83 will combine with strong, gusty
west winds and warm temperatures. Gusty west winds continue into
Wednesday, with temperatures remaining above normal with low
humidity values.

Both the GFS and ECMWF bring a quick moving, potent upper-trough
across the region Thursday. Chances looking better for at least some
light precipitation with this system. Ensemble probabilities have at
least some chance (10-30%) of seeing a tenth of an inch or more of
QPF along and north of I-80 (best chances northern Nebraska).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska through today and tonight. A mid-level cloud
deck will be located across southwest Nebraska through mid-
morning. Thereafter, some fair weather cumulus clouds will
develop around 6000FT AGL late morning through the afternoon
hours. Clear skies are expected tonight. Winds will remain
light, 10 kts or less through tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

With minimum RH trending lower and winds trending up
somewhat from the previous forecast, and after collaboration with
Rapid City, went ahead and expanded the fire weather watch into
zones 208 and 219 Sunday afternoon. Forecast sounding data is
indicating decent potential to reach wind gusts of 20 to 30 MPH
Sunday afternoon west of a line from Broken Bow to O`Neill. With
forecast afternoon dew points dropping slightly from the inherited
forecast, minimum RH of 15% has expanded into zones 208 and 219 with
this forecast package.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for NEZ204-206-208-210-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler