Ogallala, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

075
FXUS63 KLBF 122050
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
350 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening
  across portions of northern Nebraska. Damaging winds will be
  the primary threat.

- The combination of temperatures in the 90s and increasing
  humidity could lead to dangerous heat for portions of
  southwest into central and north central Nebraska Thursday and
  Friday.

- An approaching frontal boundary will bring a threat for near
  daily thunderstorms for late week and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Currently, light north winds prevail across the area, with surface
high pressure centered over northwest Nebraska/southwestern South
Dakota. Temperatures have climbed into the 80s, along with drier air
being ushered into northern Nebraska. This surface high pressure
will continue to drift east into this evening, with winds veering
southerly by tonight in its wake.

By tomorrow morning, a shortwave will begin to cross the Rockies,
with associated surface low pressure deepening over eastern Wyoming.
This positions the area between the departing surface high and the
deepening surface low, leading to a quickly constricting surface
pressure gradient from east to west. Southerly winds increase
through the afternoon tomorrow in response, with gusts of 25 to 35
miles per hour expected. Unfortunately, these strengthening gusts
will overlap with falling humidity values and lead to elevated fire
concerns across western Nebraska.

This will also lead to increasing dewpoints across central and north
central Nebraska, though only into the lower and middle 60s. Still,
this will promote increasing instability with eastward extent across
the area tomorrow. As for thunderstorms, it appears this will come
in two waves. The first will be tomorrow morning, as elevated
showers and thunderstorms move into northern Nebraska from South
Dakota. Exactly how strong these storms will be remains in question,
as they should encounter a less favorable environment with southeast
extent into Nebraska, with increasing CIN. The expectation for now
is that these storms will quickly end by late morning and largely
remain north of the area. It is unclear how these storms may impact
later convection and this will need to be monitored.

Later tomorrow afternoon, convection is expected to initiate along
the terrain of the Black Hills, and move southeast with time. These
storms should eventually cluster as they approach northern Nebraska,
leading to an increasing threat for damaging winds. Storms will
encounter increasing instability as they move eastward, along with
enlarging hodographs as a modest southerly LLJ strengthens late
evening. This could be concerning with respect to a tornado threat,
though storm mode and surface stabilization should mostly temper
this threat. At least a broken line of storms should track north of
HWY 2 tomorrow evening, bringing a threat for damaging wind gusts.
These storms should slowly exit the area prior to sunrise Wednesday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Heights rise subtly aloft into Thursday, as upper ridging begins to
translate east across the southern CONUS. Increasing warm advection
boosts highs into the 90s for the majority of the area both Thursday
and Friday. Combined with increasing dewpoints, this should lead to
increasing heat concerns as we head towards late week. Heat index
values approaching 100F are looking increasingly likely for portions
of southwest into central and north central Nebraska. This will need
to be monitored for potential heat headlines, and those with
outdoor plans should monitor later forecasts closely.

As the upper ridge begins to transition towards the Lower
Mississippi Valley, flow aloft transitions southwesterly across the
Plains. This will bring a return of more active weather, as a slow
moving surface frontal boundary begins to push southward into the
area. Near daily threats for scattered thunderstorms is expected,
and could lead to at least some threat for strong to severe storms.
Trends will need to be monitored closely, and this could also bring
a threat for locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all of western and
north central Nebraska through Wednesday morning. Patchy
shallow ground fog could develop for a time early Wednesday
morning in the Platte river valley, but should not be widespread
and will not include in the LBF TAF at this time. Otherwise
light winds will become rather gusty from the south at 10-20 kts
Wednesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Taylor