North Platte, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

125
FXUS63 KLBF 142003
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
303 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Monday for the Panhandle
  into far western Sandhills where Red Flag Warnings are in
  effect.

- Warm and dry conditions are likely for most locations much of
  the upcoming week, prolonging fire weather concerns.

- More unsettled weather arrives by late week with increasing precipitation
  potential across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

This afternoon, steady low stratus hung on across the Panhandle into
southwest Nebraska. Temperatures have been held in check as a result
with low to middle 60s. Further east, increasing breaks and
eventually clear skies has allowed for temperatures to climb. Early
afternoon readings range from upper 60s to lower 70s across the
area. Even in the warmer areas, all values remain below normal for
middle June though this cooldown will depart as quickly as it came.

For tonight...believe tonight will prove to be fairly cool across
much of local area. Surface high pressure extending southeast along
the lee of the northern Rockies will drift off the higher terrain
and through western Nebraska during the overnight. Winds will
lighten and become mostly variable as a result. Low-level moisture
should be shunted south as a result with decreasing dew point values
through the evening. Skies will gradually clear, with a window from
after midnight to just prior to dawn Monday for optimal radiational
cooling. Statistical guidance continues to hone in on middle to
upper 30s for the west central Sandhills into the eastern Panhandle.
This appears plausible given the overall setup and could occur prior
to approaching high level clouds around sunrise Monday. Recent HRRR
guidance supports the notion while painting values as low as 36-37F
between Alliance and Hyannis while the NAM Nest is further north
towards the Pine Ridge. HREF probabilities show reasonable spread
with 40% potential anywhere in Sheridan County but a more focused
bullseye in rural areas north of Antioch. The current forecast calls
for lows bottoming out around 38F in the mentioned areas. While no
extensive climatological sites exist in the immediate area, a quick
look at the history from the Alliance Airport shows values colder
than 45F on 06/15 have only occurred 5 times since 1997. This is
certainly atypical of middle June forecast lows. Further south, more
extensive cloud cover and possibly some light precipitation chances
should promote a sharp warming gradient just south of the Platte
River with upper 40s to lower 50s appear probable.

Monday/Monday Night...critical fire weather conditions appear likely
for our western zones, with details regarding this found below in
the Fire Weather discussion. Modest high pressure will settle
southeast with south to westerly flow becoming established across
the area. Within the enhanced northwesterly flow, a disturbance will
dive southeast out of the Northern Plains and cross the Dakotas.
Main upper-level dynamics will largely remain north and east of the
area but a trailing cool front will quickly settle out of western
South Dakota. Afternoon highs got a subtle boost across the area
given favorable downsloping flow winds nearing 25 to 35 mph beneath
warm h85 temperatures and favorable compressional warming with the
advancing front. Winds will flip in the evening with the arrival of
the front but fropa should remain dry. This is largely due to
precipitable water values of 0.60" or less, or roughly 50-75% of
normal for the time of year. Winds behind the front are not expected
to be overly significant with a brief continuation of 20-25 mph
gusts out of the north but quickly subsiding thereafter. Low
temperatures should not be as chilly with values ranging from upper
40s to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Amplified northwest flow will continue much of the upcoming week.
This will support largely dry conditions and when factored with
general downsloping flow, above normal temperatures. Upper ridge to
the west will relax some as another Pacific Northwest trough departs
southwest Canada. This feature will pass through the Central Plains
around Wednesday with a trailing cool front expected to knock
temperatures down from upper 80s/middle 90s on Wednesday to upper
70s/lower 80s for Thursday. Precipitation potential will be stymied
by the lack of greater atmospheric moisture though Chance PoPs (up
to 30%) continue for our far northeast zones. Ridging will begin to
build east by late week with approaching ridge axis towards
Friday/Saturday. Breakdown begins promptly with broad troughing
across the western CONUS. This allows southwesterly flow to return
which is more supportive of richer moisture quality and greater
precipitation potential. By late Saturday/early Sunday, a more
pronounced mid-level disturbance should cross the central Rockies
and bring some greater rainfall potential to the area. PoPs from the
model blend climb to around 40% Saturday afternoon but increase
further towards 60% Saturday night into early Sunday. Precipitation
potential should continue into the following week and this should
support cooler temperatures again with a return to 70s and lower 80s
forecast by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Mid-level cloud cover will be prevalent through the next 24
hours but should remain at or above 7kft AGL. Breezy northwest
winds will subside this evening, becoming more variable, before
resuming out of the west by late morning on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are likely on Monday for western
Nebraska with a Red Flag Warning in effect for Zone 204.

Behind departing high pressure, westerly downsloping flow should
develop across much of the area by late morning. A modest trough
across the Northern Plains coupled with weak surface high pressure
now to the south and east will lead to a compressed pressure
gradient and strengthening winds through the day. Increasing
influence from approaching thermal ridging coupled with the westerly
flow will support a warm up across the area. Forecast highs range
from upper 70s to lower 80s which are fairly seasonable values for
mid June. Trajectories suggest minimal airmass change ahead of the
approaching from later in the day which support dew points holding
in the middle 30s without considering the introduction of descending
dry mid-level air which is suggested by most NWP solutions. The
lingering uncertainty is timing of arrival of this drier air with an
immediately prior to fropa arrival being advertised by NAM12/RAP
solutions. This may delay the lowest humidity levels to later in the
day with a fairly progressive dry air plume limiting time a single
location sees critical levels (15% or less). Winds appear to be
fairly reasonable confidence with expansive 80%+ probabilities for
exceeding 25 mph gusts west of Highway 83 which appear to favor mid
to late afternoon as well. This aligns with an approaching h7 speed
max as the h7 shortwave enters eastern South Dakota. HREF and NBM
probabilities show good agreement in painting 50%+ joint
probabilities of > 15 mph winds (sustained) and < 20% minimum
humidities and with this in mind, did upgrade the inherited Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning. Though portions of Zone 204
have seen rainfall surpluses in the past week, the spotty coverage
and recent updates that fuels remain receptive in drier areas
supports the upgrade. Duration and magnitude of humidity drop
further east casts doubt on reaching Red Flag Warning criteria thus
no additional headlines were issued. Frontal passage appears to
favor late afternoon through early evening north to south. The
frontal boundary does not appear particularly sharp so a more
gradual versus abrupt wind shift appears probable. And while some
increased gusts area possible for a brief period behind the
departing front, duration appears to be limited to an hour or two
before winds again subside quickly. Poor humidity recovery is
expected Monday night with values only reaching the 50-65% range
heading into Tuesday.

Fire weather concerns continue near daily this upcoming week with a
return to above normal temperatures and lack of greater moisture in
place. Critical conditions appear possible again each day Tuesday
and Wednesday as temperatures return to the upper 80s to lower 90s.
How much overlap we see of critical humidity and strong gusts
remains somewhat in question. This is especially true on Wednesday,
which appears to be one of the warmer days of the week, as another
frontal boundary will settle through the area and recent trends have
sped this up to a mid-afternoon passage which will hinder humidity
drop. Confidence in precise timing remains limited so stay tuned.
Following a slightly cooler day on Thursday, warmer temperatures
return for Friday before a more unsettled pattern arrives for the
weekend which could lead to the return of greater precipitation
potential across the region.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...NMJ