North Platte, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

644
FXUS63 KLBF 112253
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
553 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-critical fire weather conditions across central and
  western Nebraska for the next several days.

- Temperatures well above normal tomorrow, then cooler and
  windy into the start of next week.

- Potential for some showers Sunday night mainly south of I-80
  though precipitation amounts expected to be quite light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Dry and breezy conditions will persist into early this evening
before winds diminish overnight. However after winds diminish
this evening, the low level wind field will amplify as a low
level jet becomes established with potential for some gusty
southerly winds overnight especially north of I-80.

Saturday will be hot and dry as the axis of the large upper
ridge moves east and brings temperatures aloft into the 99th
percentile over the High Plains. Have given temperatures
tomorrow a bit of a boost into the middle 80s to around 90
degrees south of Hwy 2, a bit cooler to the north with the best
potential for readings at or above 90 degrees residing south of
I-80. As we get into Saturday evening there is an outside
chance for an isolated shower mainly along the Hwy 20 corridor
ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Some of
these showers will have erratic gusty winds with an outside
chance for some thunder though the chance for thunder is only 15
percent or less.

A large area of high pressure will build into the region on
Sunday, pushing the cold front through the region. Gusty
northwest winds will bring cooler/near normal temperatures to
central and western Nebraska Sunday and Monday, and there is a
60 percent chance for gusts at or above 40mph especially north
of I-80. There will also be potential for scattered showers
south of Hwy 2 Sunday night though QPF amounts look quite light.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Ensembles are in agreement in depicting a progressive upper
level pattern through next week through precipitable water
anomalies show little in the way of meaningful moisture return
to the High Plains through late next week. Expect this will see
temperatures around normal to start the week, followed by a mid
week surge to above normal, then cooling again late. Blended
ensemble guidance is painting with a fairly broad brush with
precipitation potential though anticipate the primary window
for measurable precipitation will be Wednesday night into
Thursday but precipitation amounts look quite light once again
with only a 25 percent chance for amounts around one tenth of an
inch confined mainly to northwest Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. A brief
period of LLWS will be possible around midnight until around
sunrise Saturday. LLWS will be out of the south around 40 kts.
Sfc winds will remain southerly tonight around 10 to 15 kts
with gust up to 25 kts. By Saturday morning winds will begin to
shift to the west around 5 to 10 kts across the northern
Sandhills, remaining out of the south across the southern
portion of the forecast area the remainder of the forecast
period around 5 to 10 kts. Winds will shift to the north across
the northern Sandhills by late afternoon around 5 to 10 kts.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Near critical fire weather conditions will persist through the
weekend and into the first part of next week.

Dry and breezy conditions will persist into early this evening
before winds diminish and RH increases overnight. RH recovery will
be moderate south of I-80 as it peaks near 80 percent by daybreak,
but recovery will be poor further to the north where max values
are expected to generally be at or below 60 percent. Also after
winds diminish this evening, the low level wind field will amplify
as a low level jet becomes established with potential for some
southerly gusts at or above 25mph overnight especially north of
I-80.

Saturday will be hot with afternoon temperatures in the middle 80s
to around 90 degrees south of Hwy 2, a bit cooler to the north.
The added heat will drive RH down tomorrow afternoon with most
locations south of Hwy 2 and along/west of Hwy 83 falling into
the 10 to 15 percent range, a bit higher further north and east.
Once again tomorrow the question will be how much wind there will
be during the afternoon. Probabilistic guidance shows only a 25
percent chance for gusts at or above 25mph though chances increase
quickly heading both further west and east. BufKit also shows
potential for winds to overperform if mixing is deep enough west
of Hwy 83. Given the uncertainty in winds will hold off on any
fire headlines for Saturday but continue to monitor trends in the
wind forecast closely. There is also an outside chance for an
isolated shower mainly along the Hwy 20 corridor by tomorrow
evening into tomorrow night ahead of a cold front approaching from
the northwest. Some of these showers will have erratic gusty
winds with an outside chance for some thunder though the chance
for thunder is only 15 percent or less.

A large area of high pressure will build into the region on
Sunday, pushing the cold front through the region and bringing
gusty northwest winds to central and western Nebraska Sunday and
Monday with up to a 60 percent chance for gusts at or above 40mph
especially north of I-80. There will also be potential for
scattered showers south of Hwy 2 Sunday night though QPF amounts
look quite light so no significant wetting precipitation expected.
RH will be up a bit with minimum values up into the 15 to 30
percent range so anticipate wind will be the primary driver for
fire concerns Sunday and Monday and will have to see exactly where
and how much rain falls before narrowing down potential areas of
critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Gomez
FIRE WEATHER...MBS