McCook, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

614
FXUS63 KGLD 251245
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
545 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing fog is possible this morning in Norton and Graham
  counties. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 12pm
  CT.

- Sprinkles are possible today across the area.

- Near record to record high temperatures are expected
  Christmas Day and Friday. No white Christmas this year.

- Cooling trend this weekend with near-average temperatures on
  Sunday followed by a warming/moderating trend early next week.

- Light rain/snow is possible over portions of the area Sunday,
  mainly west and north of Goodland. Little to no accumulation
  is currently anticipated but some refreeze potential from the
  precipitation could pose an impact to post-holiday travelers.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 541 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

A slow moving westward fog bank continues to move towards Graham
and Norton counties. Went ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory
for those two counties through noon CT. Most visibility
guidance does not have visibilities falling in the counties with
the exception of the RAP which has more saturated low levels.
With the current progression it seems the RAP has some validity
to it which is the main reason to go ahead and issue along with
it being Christmas morning as well. Freezing fog is also a
concern with temperatures well below freezing, due to the warm
soil temperatures elevated surfaces are at most concern for
slick spots or light ice accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 106 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

Much like yesterday morning, Norton and Graham counties could see
some freezing fog this morning. However, this fog is forecast to
remain east, and out of the CWA. If it does move in, dense freezing
fog would be likely. Fog is most likely between 10-18Z. We cannot
rule out needing a Dense Fog Advisory, but as of 7Z confidence for
dense fog in the CWA is about 50%.

Don`t expect a white, snowy Christmas this year as record high
temperatures are expected and it`ll be closer to Christmas in July.
The low looks to slowly start moving east during the day, which will
lead to some easterly, downsloping winds. Temperatures are expected
to mimic Wednesday`s highs, within a few degrees. REFS temperature
probabilities show a strong signal for temperatures of at least 75
degrees between Joes and Wray, CO southeast to Russell Springs and
Weskan, KS, and all of Greeley and Wichita counties. The eastern
CWA`s temperatures will heavily depend on how far west the fog and
stratus get this morning. Areas under fog and stratus this morning
will likely only warm into the mid to upper 50s while areas clear
conditions will warm into the 60s to low 70s.

What is a bit different today is some moist air looks to advect into
the region from the southern CONUS and mix down from the mid-levels
with slightly stronger winds. With this, RH values are expected to
only drop into the low 20s. The northeastern CWA, where a lingering
850 mb trough is, winds will be weak and variable. In the
southwestern CWA, where the low will have exited, westerly winds
sustained around 10-15 kts with gusts ranging from 15-25 kts are
expected. Guidance is staying the course and showing the low
remaining on the more southerly course, keeping the strongest winds
south of the CWA. There is now just a 2-5% chance the low takes a
northerly course, which would lead to gusts up around 30-35 kts.

It`s also worth noting, there is a 10% chance of isolated
precipitation during the day today. A weak shortwave trough will be
moving over the CWA, and will provide enough forcing to lead to some
light rain. Available moisture is the main limiting factor for any
precipitation today. If precipitation does occur, high temperatures
could drop a couple degrees.

Christmas night, a weak ridge will be pushing in from the southwest.
This is forecast to keep temperatures in the 30s, with cooler
temperatures in the northern CWA.

Early Friday morning, either a ridge or a weak high will move over
the CWA before a trough pushes in from the northwest. This provides
another chance at record high temperatures, but this time the warmer
temperatures will be in the eastern CWA. Currently, NBM is showing
highs will be around 70 for most of the area with the far western
portions of the CWA remaining in the mid 60s. Guidance is showing a
10-15% chance that the trough and ridge create a 25-30 kts 850 mb
LLJ, in which case 25-30 kts gusts could mix down to the surface.

Friday night, the trough looks to fully push into the CWA which will
eventually lead to northwesterly winds by sunrise. Temperatures will
be cooling as the cold front/northwesterly winds move in.
Temperatures in the northwestern CWA will drop to around freezing
while the southeastern CWA may remain around 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 123 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

Longwave troughing across the western CONUS is forecast to be
ongoing starting the extended period Saturday leading to another day
of above normal temperatures for the area. High temperatures are
again forecast in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Locales across
southwestern portions of the forecast area may see slightly higher
than current forecast temperatures assuming the southwesterly
winds can remain in place through the day. If troughing can
remain deep enough and winds can remain westerly would not be
surprised if temperature come up a few degrees if that signal
does continue. Winds overall across the area look to be light
with the exception being the southwestern portions of the area
as slightly stronger 850mb jet is forecast to remain across the
area with sustained winds around 15 mph and sporadic gusts of
20-25 mph.

The main focus for the extended period continues to be on an
incoming modest cold front this weekend. GEFS has slowed down
down on the passage of the front to overnight Saturday night
which is trending a bit closer to the ECMWF-AIFS which still
shows around 12Z Sunday for the passage. precipitation chances
are still seen as well during this time frame as a mid level
trough moves through the area. Rain initially is forecast
before changing to all snow as cold air advection continues and
drops the entire atmospheric profiles according to GFS and
ECWMF fall to below -5C supporting all snow. A big caveat
however is number one how moist will the low levels be as the
NAM does indicate drier air near the surface and what will the
precipitation type be before temperatures fully fall. GFS cross
soundings which shows more low level saturation does show
around 5 microbars of omega near the surface with the front but
with the omega not being in the dendritic growth zone would
support drizzle or freezing drizzle. Confidence in that
currently is around 5%. With the frontal passage winds are
forecast to increase to around 20-25 mph sustained with some
higher gusts possible. Breezy winds are forecast to continue
through the day Sunday as cold air advection continues. Should
snow be occurring then there could be some visibility
restrictions to blowing snow as the snow is falling. Not as
concerned about flash freeze potential as soil temperatures
continue to rise and will rise ahead of the front due to the
above normal temperatures but any post holiday travelers will
need to be aware of re-freeze potential especially on bridges
and overpasses and the colder air continues to filter in. At
the this time the favored area for precipitation continues to
be across northwest portions of the area Sunday morning with
mainly light accumulations of precipitation.

Sunday, it will feel more like winter temperature wise as well as
temperatures will struggle to make it above freezing due to the
continued cold air advection throughout the day as 850mb
temperatures ranging -5-10C move in across the area. Winds as
well as mentioned above are forecast to continue to remain
breezy allowing wind chills in the teens to twenties to be
present during the afternoon. Post frontal, Sunday night into
Monday morning a surface high moves in relaxing the winds.
Current forecast temperatures are in the low teens but some
single digit temperatures are still possible along with wind
chills falling to zero and below zero across the area.

Monday and through mid week is forecast to see moderating
temperatures and a more tranquil pattern returning with above
normal favored as ridging redevelops across the western CONUS;
at this time does not appear to be as warm as this week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period for
both KGLD and KMCK. KMCK is still expected to remain clear of
the fog and stratus to the east this morning. Both sites, but
mainly KGLD, could see some brief sprinkles throughout the day,
but no impacts are expected.

Winds at KGLD may gust up to 20 kts this afternoon from the
west. KMCK will see the light and variable winds persist until
this evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 123 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

Well above average temperatures will persist through the
remainder of the week. Some locations may approach monthly
(December)record highs. For reference, average highs this time
of year are ~40F.

================================
Record Highs for December 25
================================
Burlington.........67 in 1929 current forecast....76
Goodland...........74 in 1950 current forecast....76
McCook.............70 in 1929 current forecast....62
Hill City..........76 in 1950 current forecast....61

================================
Record Warmest Lows December 26
================================
Burlington.........34 in 2005
Goodland...........36 in 1980
McCook.............33 in 1979
Hill City..........36 in 2024

================================
Record Highs for December 26
================================
Burlington.........77 in 1980 current forecast....67
Goodland...........69 in 2005 current forecast....68
McCook.............68 in 2008 current forecast....67
Hill City..........73 in 2021 current forecast....69

================================
Monthly (December) Record Highs
================================
Burlington.........81 in 1939
Goodland...........83 in 1964
McCook.............81 in 1964
Hill City..........83 in 1964

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ004-016.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...Trigg