McCook, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

805
FXUS63 KGLD 141825
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1225 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overnight showers and isolated storms are forecast tonight;
  severe weather is not expected.

- A severe storm or two is possible Monday afternoon along and
  south of Interstate 70. Hail around 2 inches in diameter and
  damaging winds around 60 mph are the primary hazards.

- Warming trend this week as Wednesday`s high temperatures may
  get to above 100 degrees and may pose a fire weather threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Northwest flow is currently in place across the region along with
fairly thick mid to upper level clouds as moisture around 700-500 mb
is in place from a shortwave from the Rockies. The cloud cover is
forecast to slowly burn off through the afternoon. Cooler
temperatures remain forecast as the area is in wake of yesterday`s
cold front and the lingering cloud cover through the day as high
temperatures are forecast to remain in the 60s to 70s along with
light winds as an inverted surface trough is in place across the
area. This evening the shortwave from the Rockies is forecast to
move onto the Plains along with some additional 700mb vorticity
increasing through around 03Z. Showers are forecast to develop
along the Palmer Divide and spread into the western portions of
the CWA this evening. Storms are currently not forecast but a
rogue lightning strike can`t be completely ruled out due to
around 50 j/kg of CAPE currently being depicted in guidance. Dew
point depressions are forecast to remain around 15-20 degrees
but since the better forcing is located around 700mb think this
should be enough for some light rainfall to reach the surface.
Most likely scenario is that most will see a few hundredths of
an inch of rain with pockets of a couple tenths. Scattered
showers are forecast to continue through the majority of the
night as weak 300K isentropic ascent continues to remain in
place.


Monday, a large low pressure system is forecast to be in place
across much of the Great Lakes region, resulting in northwest
flow continuing for the Tri-State area. Temperatures are
forecast to warm back into the upper 70s to low 80s across the
forecast area as western CONUS ridging begins to have an
influence on the Plains. A surface convergence boundary/dry line
is forecast to set up south of I-70 during the afternoon hours
and may be the focus for some thunderstorm development during
the afternoon and evening hours as a weak shortwave traverses
across the area within the northwest flow. Confidence is still
a little low (10%) in if these storms will initiate and how far
south of I70 they will develop, but it seems like guidance has
been trending further north with this boundary over the past few
runs. Some guidance also has storms developing as early as 2pm
MT which not totally buying at this point due to the speed of
the shortwave but think late afternoon/early evening seems the
most likely. Despite not being currently outlooked should these
storms develop there should be some severe threat with them with
hail up to ping pong ball size. If storms can remain discrete
enough and remain sustained then the potential is there for hail
as large as tennis balls along and south of Highway 40 where
the higher surface to equilibrium level bulk shear lies with
the 15Z RAP depicting this being around 50 knots. 41 knots of
0-6 shear and 2100 j/kg of MUCAPE are currently being depicted
by guidance. Lapse rates may be the lacking feature for any
severe threat with around 7.0 c/km currently being depicted by
guidance. Additional overnight showers and storms may be
possible as well as the northern extent of Mucape boundary
interacts with an advancing 250mb jet and cold front at the
surface ; northeastern portions of the area are currently
favored. Severe weather would be unlikely with that activity
due to minimal CAPE being in place. Moisture advection is
forecast to occur through the night Monday and into Tuesday
morning. Fog potential may be possible along and south of
Interstate 70 with dense fog potential currently appearing to be
on the table due to high surface to 1km mixing ration
differences. There is discrepancies with guidance on the
quality of the moisture advection at this time so will leave
fog out of the forecast for now.

Similar synoptic flow is forecast Tuesday across the area. The
ridge across the western CONUS is forecast to continue to expand
and amplify as even warmer temperatures that Tuesday are
forecast to occur with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Tuesday currently looks dry across the area with drier air in
place and moisture shunted down into southern Kansas. Light
winds are currently forecast at the surface but a 700mb jet may
be able to bring down higher wind gusts up to 20 mph during the
afternoon hours with mixing heights of 8000-10000 feet
currently forecast. Due to this not concerned at this time
about fire weather despite the lower humidity due to the warm
temperatures as winds are forecast to be marginal at best.
Tuesday night a surface trough is forecast to move through the
area and increase winds as the 850mb jet increases. Some
pressure rises is seen as well which should be able to help mix
down the winds through the nocturnal inversion.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The upper pattern for Tuesday still has the ridge off the
Pacific- Northwest and over our area the flow is from the
northwest. The high temperatures are currently forecast to be in
the mid 80s and lower 90s range. The winds remain calm and
gusts tame. As for precipitation chances, PoPs are currently
showing 5-10% chance and with there being CAPE less than 500
J/kg, these would likely just be pop-up rain showers if anything
were to develop.

Wednesday, still looks to have a concern for the high
temperatures and fire weather. The high temperatures for the day
are currently forecast to be in the high 90s to low 100s.
Looking at Guidance the probability of exceeding 100 for the day
is around 20-45%. The maximum temperatures that could be seen
are 100-105 degrees with a 10-20% chance of exceeding 105. These
high temperatures around or above 100 still would be south of
I-70 and east of KS Hwy 25. The lows for Wednesday also look to
be above normal with the EFI SOT showing values in the 0.6-0.7
for Yuma County. Currently the lows are forecast to be in the
mid to high 60s.

The Fire Weather Concerns are present for the majority of the
County Warning Area (CWA) and the main timing focus is in the
morning to afternoon hours on Wednesday. Winds look to be from
northwest in the morning hours then shifting around midday to be
from the northeast. Sustained winds are forecast to be in the
20-30 mph range. The Gusts are forecast to be in the 30-45 mph
range. One thing to note, Guidance is disagreeing on the peak
gust speeds. The NBM is currently favoring the higher values
with a 15-35% chance of seeing gusts exceeding 50 mph. The LREF
has the gusts has a 10-20% chance of exceeding 40 mph. Moving on
to the Relative Humidity (RH) values, the majority of the CWA
looks to get below 15%. The lowest RH values look to be west of
KS Hwy 27, and values in single digits for Cheyenne County in
Colorado. Moving to GFDI, there are values 50+ for mainly Yuma
and Kit Carson counties in CO. This would indicate very high
fire growth. The main uncertainty would be are the
ingredients/criteria for Critical Fire Weather being met at the
same time. The higher gusts are more favored for Yuma and the
northern parts of Kit Carson in the morning, but the RH values
do not begin to decrease until the afternoon and the lowest
values favor Cheyenne County in Colorado. One last thing to
note, is this is about 5 days out, but there is signal for at
least there being Elevated Fire Weather present and currently
30-40% that conditions will meet Red Flag Criteria at some point
in the day.

One other hazard that maybe present Wednesday, is localized
blowing dust. After looking at Guidance the conditions are there
for plumes of blowing dust. Given the 2-2.5 C/km is higher than
the threshold, any dust should get mixed up into atmosphere and
could create air quality issues and visibility could get
reduced down to a mile.

For the extended part of the week. The upper pattern
transitions to more zonal flow with the winds coming from the
west-northwest. During this period there could be some shortwave
disturbances that could bring us some precipitation. Thursday
through Saturday temperatures look to be in the mid 80s to high
90s. Thursday does have a cool down, as there is a cold front
moving into very late Wednesday night into very early Thursday
morning. This cold front should bring the highs down to the mid
80s. The winds and gusts both show some signs of there being
gusts up to 30 mph but it varies day to day. As for precipation
chances, Friday has the strongest signal for showers/storms.
Friday`s SFC-CAPE values, from Guidance, are around the
1000-1500 J/kg for the mean. The 90th percentile for both the
NBM and LREF are around the 1500-2000 J/kg range. These values
would be supportive of showers/storms. The NCAR AI NWP
Convective Hazard Forecast does have some forecasts showing a
5-15% chance for severe hazards. Granted this is still about a
week away and a fair amount can change.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are currently forecast for each terminal for
this TAF period. Light and variable winds are forecast to
persist at GLD before becoming more easterly during the evening.
The opposite at MCK with north-northwesterly winds around 10
knots before shifting to the west for the afternoon. Watching
for some light showers and spotty lighting strikes this evening
and overnight for each terminal. Guidance is indicating perhaps
a bit higher threat for MCK but confidence isn`t quite high
enough to include in the TAF at this time so will monitor for
the 00Z TAF issuance for introduction.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...Trigg