McCook, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

243
FXUS63 KGLD 112308
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
508 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions expected in northwest
  Kansas this afternoon.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across the
  entire Tri-State area on Saturday. Locally critical fire
  weather conditions are possible, especially in Kit Carson/
  Cheyenne counties in CO. Outdoor burning should be avoided.
  Repeating, outdoor burning is not advised on Saturday.

- Near record to record high temperatures possible Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Today-Tonight: Modest low-level southerly return flow will
prevail today, as an upper level ridge over the Rockies flattens
and extends eastward over the Central Plains and the MSLP-850
mb height gradient reorients/tightens in response to modest
surface pressure falls / lee trough development in Colorado.
Expect dry conditions and warmer temps with highs in the mid-
upper 70`s. High resolution guidance and forecast soundings
suggest that breezy (20-30 mph) south winds in vicinity of the
Kansas and Colorado border (KITR, KGLD, KSYF) this morning will
decrease to 15-20 mph this afternoon. West of Hwy 385 in eastern
Colorado.. very near or within the developing surface trough (a
minimum in the MSLP gradient).. south winds may struggle to
exceed 10-15 mph this afternoon. Near-critical fire weather
conditions are likely over northwest Kansas, where relative
humidity readings will bottom-out at 15-20 percent amidst breezy
south winds, breeziest (20-30 mph) late this morning and very
early this afternoon.

Sat-Sat night: Expect dry conditions and further warming as the
upper level ridge departs (progressing east toward the MS River
Valley), broad cyclonic flow aloft envelopes the western CONUS
and low-level southerly flow persists.. on the eastern periphery
of a broad lee trough/cyclone that will slowly migrate eastward
from CO into far western KS during the aft-eve. Guidance
indicates 850 mb temperatures on the order of 26-29C and near
record highs (for the date) in the upper 80`s to mid 90`s.
Despite deep vertical mixing (8-11 KFT AGL), forecast soundings
continue to indicate weak (13-20 knot) SW-WSW flow
within/throughout the mixed layer.. suggesting SW-WSW winds at
10-20 mph with occasional gusts to ~25 mph. Near-critical fire
weather conditions are likely across the entire Tri-State area.
Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible..
especially in western Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado
(areas that received less rainfall last week). Outdoor burning
is not advised.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Sunday: Guidance suggests that progressive shortwave energy
moving ashore the Pacific Northwest (Sat morning) will amplify
into a closed low (with an attendant surface cyclone) as it
tracks east across the northern Rockies (Sat night) and Dakotas
(Sun).. and that a moist, evaporatively cooled airmass emanating
from widespread precipitation in Montana (Sat night) will surge
southward through the Tri-State area mid-late Sunday morning,
the leading edge of which will manifest as a northerly wind
shift and effective cold frontal passage. If this is the case,
i.e. cooler temperatures and increased low-level moisture.. 850
mb dewpoints ~0 to +3C Sunday aft (compared to -5 to -12C
Saturday aft).. critical fire weather conditions are unlikely.
Guidance suggests that low-topped convection (showers) may
develop along the Cheyenne Ridge (near the WY-CO-NE border) as a
southwest to northeast oriented shear axis approaches from the
west during the late afternoon.. and that outflow and/or low-
level speed convergence may aid in additional development and/or
downstream propagation into the Goodland CWA Sunday evening.
Weak synoptic forcing and weak, shallow instability (100-250
J/kg MUCAPE) suggest little in the way of lightning potential,
let alone organized convection, though.. strong winds are a
possibility -if- diurnal timing is favorable and modest DCAPE is
present over eastern CO.

Monday-Friday: Below average forecast confidence. Long range
guidance suggests that a complex split-flow synoptic regime will
evolve over western North America next week, a pattern roughly
characterized by (1) ridging aloft along the Pacific Coast, (2)
a cut-off low trapped beneath the ridge offshore the southern
Pacific Coast and (3) confluent flow aloft over the central
Rockies and High Plains. If this is the case, i.e. confluent
flow aloft is anchored directly over, or near, the Tri-State
area.. one would generally expect dry conditions. Forecast
confidence typically decreases with range. `Below average`, in
this context, is intended to communicate a further reduction in
confidence associated with / inherent-to increased pattern
complexity.. e.g. patterns characterized by cut-off waves,
multibranched jet/wave interactions and potentially significant
forms of constructive/destructive interference, among others.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 507 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. There will be a few hours of low level wind shear
overnight at both sites associated with the nocturnal low level
jet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Record high temperatures for Saturday April 12 are listed
in the following table.

==============================================
Location                     Record High (F)
==============================================
Goodland, KS................   93 in 2023
McCook, NE..................   93 in 2023
Burlington, CO..............   95 in 2023
Hill City, KS...............   93 in 2011

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...024
CLIMATE...JN