McCook, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

239
FXUS63 KGLD 142328
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
428 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday in
  parts of northeast Colorado and along the Kansas and Colorado
  border area.

- Damaging wind gusts are likely on Friday with northwest winds
  gusting 60-90 mph Friday morning through Friday afternoon.
  Blowing dust, including localized but extremely hazardous dust
  storms, may also develop. Any fires that ignite will have
  explosive growth potential due to strong winds and low
  humidity.

- Saturday also has the potential for strong winds, blowing dust
  and wild fires. While the wind is not expected to be as high
  as Friday, gusts over 60 mph will be possible in the
  afternoon, particularly in northeast Colorado and west of
  Highway 25 in Kansas and Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Wind, fire and blowing dust concerns continue for the area
Thursday through Saturday, though Friday will be the most
impactful day.

For Thursday, will see a modest increase in winds in the
afternoon with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range, possibly up to
45 mph north of Interstate 70. Afternoon relative humidity
minimums will drop into the mid to upper teens, and that was
derived from the lowest percentile dew points from the NBM.
Areas currently in the Red Flag Warning have the highest
probability of reaching critical criteria for a few hours, but
confidence in the watch area is still lacking to upgrade, mainly
because of dew points. Otherwise, looking at highs in the lower
60s and lows Thursday night in the 20s behind and early cold
frontal passage. Winds will become gusty overnight as upper
shortwave axis approaches and winds increase aloft. Even without
full mixing, may see gusts approaching 50 mph towards 12z Friday
morning.

Friday remains the main day of concern. A 500 mb jet max of
110 kts will move over the area in the morning behind the
shortwave axis. As mixing commences, possibly as early as the
12-15z time frame, surface winds will rapidly increase and
approach or exceed warning criteria, continuing through the
afternoon. NBM statistics continue to support gusts in the
60-90 mph range, highest in northeast Colorado and west of
Highway 25 in Kansas/Nebraska. Mixing heights remain just a bit
high, now around 2.5-2.8 km in the afternoon, which is about the
only negative factor for blowing dust and may prevent more
widespread low visibilities from developing. However, given the
magnitude of the wind and antecedent dry conditions, localized
plumes of dust storms appear to be likely. Burn scars in Yuma
County, Colorado, from last month`s strong wind event may be of
particular concern as a source region for the dust, which would
work downstream into the Kansas/Colorado border area on
northwest winds. Winds will diminish Friday night, but still
gusting up to 50 mph at times in the early evening. Highs will
be in the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows Friday night in the
teens.

Another upper shortwave trough moves across the area on
Saturday. The 500 mb jet max is not as strong compared to
Friday, but still seeing around 90 kts by Saturday afternoon
overspreading the area from Colorado behind the shortwave axis.
NBM statistics suggest Colorado and west of Highway 25 in
Kansas/Nebraska may once again see strong winds meeting High
Wind criteria of 58 mph or higher. Blowing dust and fire weather
may be additional concerns. Will hold off issuing any watch for
now so as not to distract from the wind event on Friday. Highs
will be in the 30s and lows Saturday night in the single digits
and teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

The extended forecast begins with a broad upper trough extending
west to east from the northern Rockies to New England and digging
south to the Gulf Coast. An amplified ridge sets up over the
Aleutian Islands and the PACNW on Sunday, with north-northwest flow
over the Tri-State area. Expect a very nice warm up with high
temperatures rebounding back into the mid to upper 50s. Winds may
still be on the breezy side of things, particularly in northeastern
Colorado and Nebraska/Kansas counties along the Colorado border.
Gusts may reach 30-35mph at times. With minimum RH values falling
into the upper teens to low 20s in these same locations, this will
be another afternoon to watch for the potential for some fire
weather concerns.

Expect a cooler day on Monday as a surface high moves over Canada
and the Dakotas. Highs will be in the low to mid-40s, closer to
seasonal temperatures. Winds will also slacken off, out of the
north- northwest around 10-15mph.

The cool down will be short lived, with highs returning to the 50s
heading toward mid-week. Lows will be in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 423 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF period. Variable
winds this evening are forecast to eventually become more
southeasterly between 05-07Z before continuing to shift and
eventually becoming more northwesterly my mid morning Thursday.
A stronger signal for LLWS is seen for KMCK than KGLD currently
so will continue to monitor this for the next TAF issuance.
Breezy to gusty winds are then forecast to ensue mid morning
Thursday and las through the rest of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 423 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Thursday, fire zones (CO) 253, 254, (KS) 13, and 27 are expected to
see RH values mid teens for a few hours while winds from the
northwest gust up around 40 MPH. As mentioned in the short-term
discussion above, today`s set up similar to Tuesday`s. Tuesday
saw the winds mix down drier air, allowing spotty critical fire
weather conditions to occur. Thursday is starting closer to
critical conditions than Tuesday was, increasing confidence to
80% that Red Flag criteria will be met. This prompted a Red
Flag Warning to be issued. Adjacent counties may also see
critical fire weather conditions, but have a lower chance than
the Warned counties. There is a notable 20% chance that dry air
will not mix down and RH values will remain above critical
values. Patchy blowing dust is possible, but widespread
visibility impacts are not expected.

Friday, winds will be much higher, with gusts up to 65 MPH being
possible. RH values are forecast to be lower than Thursday`s,
potentially nearing 10% if temperatures get into the mid 40s.
Blowing dust is also expected, including visibility potentially
dropping to less than 1 mile. There is a 30% chance that cooler
temperatures occur, and RH values do not drop below 15%. GFDI
values across eastern Colorado range from 60-100 Friday.

Over the weekend, we could see continuing critical fire weather
conditions with northwesterly winds gusting over 25 MPH and RH
values dropping to around 20%. Saturday is the main day for the
weekend to watch as there is still potential that that wind
gusts of 40-50 knots may still be ongoing.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for KSZ001-014-028-041-042.
     Fire Weather Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
     High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
     Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM MST Thursday for KSZ013-027.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for COZ252.
     Fire Weather Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     afternoon for COZ252>254.
     High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     afternoon for COZ090>092.
     Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM MST Thursday for COZ253-254.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     afternoon for NEZ079>081.
     High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     afternoon for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...CA/Trigg