Lincoln, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

523
FXUS63 KOAX 121750
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1250 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of fog has been bouncing visibilities to below 1
  mile at times, with additional chances tomorrow morning near
  and east of the Nebraska/Iowa border.

- Warmth returns by Friday, with increasing chances for heat
  indices to reach above 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this morning features two main parts of the
weakening trough situated over the central CONUS in the form of
the main vorticity maximum along the Canadian border, while a
string of shortwaves displaced southward from the main upper
system continue to spin and force convection across the Central
and Southern Plains. Eastern Nebraska and western Iowa are just
to the north of the convective action this morning, with very
weak surface flow and slight high pressure ridging in place to
help form patchy fog once again. Similar to yesterday morning,
surface visibilities have not stayed consistent for any period
of time, bouncing from normal values to as low as one quarter of
a mile. Short-term models tend to break up the fog within a
couple hours of sunrise, and we`ll be left with a wonderful late
summer day with highs topping out in the lower 80s. We should
avoid a repeat of the frustrating funnel formation that occurred
yesterday with cloud cover today expected to push southeast,
scoured out by an approaching boundary that will help swing
winds northwesterly. With the recent moisture we`ve had
alongside the cooler mornings, fog will once again be a
possibility overnight especially for areas near and east of the
Nebraska border with Iowa and Missouri where winds will also
tank and allow for more efficient cold air draining.

For Wednesday, expect to see the further-exiting aforementioned
trough be replaced by west-northwesterly flow. Models have
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa mostly dry, with the only
exception being a compact shortwave that is expected to eject
eastward from the High Plains and traverse South Dakota during
the evening hours. The SPC so far has concurred and kept the
severe risk area just to the north, or only barely glancing far
northeast Nebraska, but this will need to be monitored for any
southward slide for folks camping outside and enjoying the
slinking remainder of the summer.

Thursday and Beyond:

After a cool start to the week, the latter half will be an
unfortunate reminder that the summer heat is never too far away.
Very comfortable highs in the 80s will be replaced by temps
that reach well into the 90s, and heat indices that will try to
bush north of 100 degrees. Deterministic model guidance
continues to be in favor of the amplification of a broad
mid/upper ridge that will settle over the Lower Mississippi
Valley, while a lower level thermal ridge will extend from the
Central and Southern High Plains northeastward through the
forecast area. If there has been any trend in the details of the
heat wave, the latest runs have ever-so- slightly amplified the
ridge, increasing the ceiling to the heat a smidgen. The latest
heat index values do push higher than 100 degrees for most of
the forecast area both Friday and Saturday, with Friday being
the warmer of the two days (and making it the best candidate for
an eventual Heat Advisory). As far as shower and storm chances
go, the amplification trend in models of the ridge has pushed
some of the ridge-riding convection northward, drying out our
outlook. Convection will still be near enough to the area and
will certainly have a good chance to be nocturnal as it drifts
away from the High Plains to warrant checking back -- especially
for those planning to endure the summer heat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

- Potential for reduced VSBYs in Fog/BR again early Wednesday AM

A cold front is slowly drifting south across the area this
afternoon. Expect light southwest winds at OMA/LNK to turn
northerly behind the front around 19-20Z. There is a narrow
axis of SCT to BKN 2500-3000ft cumulus along the front so tossed
in a FEW025 mention to account for it, but it should be fairly
short-lived. Dry conditions are currently forecast through the
TAF period, with the better potential for a stray shower or
storm this afternoon being east of the terminals.

Winds become light and variable after sunset with expansive
surface high pressure overhead. The calm winds and clear skies
will set the stage for another potential round of fog
development late tonight into early Wednesday morning,
currently favoring areas along and east of the Missouri River.
Opted to introduce MVFR VSBYs in a TEMPO at OMA where guidance
is most consistent in fog development. IFR or lower VSBYs may
need to be considered if confidence increases. Any lingering fog
should erode within a few hours of sunrise on Wednesday with
winds returning to a prevailing southeast direction by mid to
late morning.

Petr

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petr