Lincoln, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

605
FXUS63 KOAX 180946
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
346 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The cold air has arrived with our first taste of it today as
  highs stay down in the teens to low 20s with wind chills
  feeling like single digits.

- Dangerously cold wind chills ranging from 15 to 30 below zero
  are expected across the area each morning from Sunday through
  Tuesday.

- Temperatures rebound by mid-week next week, becoming more
  seasonal with highs in the 30s Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

The cold front has come and gone and it left behind an arctic
air mass across the Northern and Central Plains. Temperatures
as of 3 AM this morning sit solidly in the teens with northerly
winds gusting to 40 mph making it feel as cold as 5 below in
areas.

The upper-level pattern shows a deep upper-level trough over the
Northern Plains, with a ridge along the Gulf of Alaska helping
to force arctic air south into our region. As this ridge
continues to amplify, we`ll see enhancement in the northerly
Polar Jet enhancing the advection of arctic temperatures into
the Northern and Central Plains over the next few days.

Today we start out windy, with winds gradually weakening through
the day. Wind chills this morning will sit in the -3 to -15
range, warming into the single digits during the afternoon as
ambient air temperatures rise into the teens to low 20s. This
will be the warmest of the next few days as a second shortwave
moving through tonight will bring another reinforcing boost of
that arctic air dropping temperatures down below zero in many
areas by daybreak Sunday morning. Though winds will be weaker,
we`ll still have enough to make it miserable as wind chills drop
to a bone-chilling -15 to -30 Sunday morning. Hold on to your
hats (beanies?) as this will be the case for the next two
mornings as well.

For those who dislike snow, the good news is we won`t see any of
the white stuff during this cold snap, but we do need some snow.
It`s been a very dry winter so far, and that doesn`t appear to
be breaking through the next seven days. Temperatures during the
afternoons Sunday and Monday will rise into the upper-single-
digits to low-teens, though wind chill will keep it feeling like
temperatures remain below zero. We`ve issued a Cold Weather
Advisory through the period of Sunday - Tuesday morning to
highlight the dangerously cold temperatures expected.

As we go into midweek, we start to see temperatures rebound
Tuesday afternoon as the aforementioned ridge out west starts to
advance eastward into Alberta. This helps to push the cold air
off to the east. Tuesday afternoon we see temperatures rise back
up into the 20s in many locations. Wednesday we see another
shortwave move through with pre-frontal warm-air advection
bringing temperatures back up into the upper 30s to near 40 in
many locations. As we go into Wednesday evening, a handful of
the latest ensemble members do show some potential for light
snow as another cold front brings temperatures back down toward
seasonal normal or cooler for Thursday.

In the "beyond section" of the forecast, the trend seems to be
for cooler than normal temperatures to prevail with brief warm-
ups ahead of additional cold fronts bringing the cold air back
across our area. While nothing looks to be quite as cold as what
we are seeing this weekend into early next week, we could
potentially see chances for precipitation as the 6-10 day
outlook shows precipitation chances increasing back up to normal
with above normal chances in the 8-14 day outlook. This is
likely due to a upper-level pattern that continues to be active
through the next couple of weeks.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Potent wind gusts have persisted long in the evening ours today,
with the expectation that they could linger for a few more
before slowly diminishing overnight. Scattered MVFR ceilings
have also build in from the northwest but look less likely the
farther south and east you go. Nonetheless, KOMA and KOFK have a
portion of the early TAF period with ceiling restrictions while
KLNK is only expected to see them intermittently over the next
2-3 hours. Winds will stay out or the north-northwest through
the period with gusts falling to 22 kts or so by the end of it
alongside decreasing clouds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST
     Tuesday for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065.
IA...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST
     Tuesday for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Petersen