Lexington, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

127
FXUS63 KGID 112009
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
309 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread elevated/near-critical fire weather conditions
  possible Saturday through Monday due to gusty winds and low
  relative humidity.

- Highs in the 80s on Saturday, in the 70s and 80s on Sunday.

- Chance for light precipitation Sunday night (20-40%), and Wednesday/Thursday
  (15-30%).

- Near normal temperatures (highs 60s) to start next week,
  climbing back above normal (highs 70s/80s) by the end of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Today...

It`s a beautiful day outside with temperatures currently sitting in
the upper 60s to mid 70s, and plenty of sunshine. Relative humidity
values have fallen to around 20% across the area. The strongest
winds are west of Highway 281, gusting 15-25mph, combined with the
low relative humidity, periods of near critical fire weather
conditions will continue into the early evening hours. Winds will
increase this evening as the pressure gradient tightens over the
forecast area. Southerly winds gusting 20-25mph will help keep
temperatures above normal overnight, in the mid/upper 40s.

Saturday...

Southerly flow will strengthen over the area on Saturday ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough. This will result in the warmest day
across the forecast period, as highs soar into the 80s. Southerly
winds gusting 30-35mph are expected during the day on Saturday,
bringing another day of fire weather concerns to the area. Afternoon
relative humidity values look to remain largely above 20%, keeping
the area from reaching true "critical" criteria, but at least
widespread near-critical fire weather conditions are expected. The
area most likely to reach "critical" fire weather conditions is
along/west of Highway 283, though this looks to be too brief and
localized to warrant headline issuance at this time. A cold front
will move into the area Saturday night as the aforementioned
shortwave trough and surface low move through the Plains.


Sunday...

The cold front will exit southeastern portions of the area Sunday
morning as the low moves into the Midwest. Highs on Sunday will
range from the upper 60s (northwest) to the low 80s (southeast).
Winds will be gusty and northerly behind the cold front, with
sustained winds of 20-25mph and gusts of 30-40mph. These gusty winds
will result in another day of fire weather concerns to the area.
Afternoon relative humidity values look to remain above critical
criteria falling to around 25%, but it would result in another day
of widespread near-critical fire weather conditions. If relative
humidity values were to decrease further, a fire weather headline
may be needed. The low over the Midwest will advect cooler and drier
air into the are Sunday night, though winds gusting 15-20mph keep
temperatures from falling much below 40 degrees.

Precipitation chances return to the area Sunday night as showers
that develop over northeastern  move into the area. Any
precipitation from this looks to be fairly minimal (10% chance for
0.10" or more).

Monday...

A cooler day is expected on Monday due to persistent cold air
advection. Highs on Monday will be in the low to mid 60s. A
tight pressure gradient continues over the area on Monday,
leading to yet another windy day with northwest winds gusting
30-40mph (strongest north of I-80). Despite the cooler
temperatures on Monday, the drier airmass will result in
afternoon relative humidity values falling to around 20% across
most of the forecast area. Combined with the gusty winds, an
area of critical fire weather conditions appears possible. This
will continue to be monitored closely to see if fire weather
headlines end up being needed. Overall, Monday appears to be the
day with the highest fire weather risk, given the most
favorable overlap of low relative humidity and gusty winds.

Tuesday Onwards...

Zonal flow-weak ridging will build over the are on Tuesday, with
above normal temperatures. A passing shortwave trough will bring the
next chance for precipitation to the area Wednesday night/Thursday,
though this looks to be fairly low and any precipitation remaining
fairly light where it does fall. Dry and Above normal temperatures
look to continue past the forecast period, with the CPC 6-10 and 8-
14 day outlooks favoring above normal temperatures, and below
normal precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Light southerly
winds will continue this afternoon, strongest at KEAR with gusts
of 10-15kts. Winds will rise above 10kts this evening,
continuing overnight with sustained winds of 10-15kts and gusts
of 15-20kts. LLWS will develop at 010 around midnight due to a
LLJ, continuing through sunrise. Southerly winds will increase
again after sunrise, gusting 25-30kts by the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis