Grand Island, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

910
FXUS63 KGID 070506
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1106 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized slick spots are possible due to patchy freezing rain
  this evening. Mainly in areas north of Interstate 80 and east
  of Highway 281.

- The next chance for precipitation (20-30%) arrives Tuesday
  night.

- The remainder of the forecast period (through next Friday)
  will see highs bouncing between the 50s, 60s and 70s. The
  warmest day looks to fall Monday (upper 60s and 70s).

- Near critical fire weather concerns return to southwest
  portions of the area Saturday through Monday afternoon. Winds
  do not appear to be strong enough to provoke critical
  conditions at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The main story up front: A few strong to severe storms will be
possible this afternoon for mainly our southeastern portions of the
area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a slight risk (level 2
of 5) across a few of our southeastern Nebraska and Kansas counties
(areas southeast of a line from York to Smith Center). Storms across
north central Kansas and mainly areas east of HWY-281 in Nebraska
may develop in 2 waves between 2-9PM. Storms developing earlier on
and along the front (areas mainly within the slight risk area), will
be more likely to become severe. The strongest storms may carry up
to golf ball sized hail and/or produce wind gusts near 60MPH. An
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out along the front (2% SPC Tornado
Risk), though the fast rushing cold air advection behind the front
may keep the threat fairly minimal (mainly only for
Mitchell, Jewell and Thayer counties).

The second wave of elevated storms developing later behind the front
(mainly across Nebraska areas east of HWY-281) will in all
likeliness be less severe in nature, though a few "hailers" can`t be
completely ruled out. In addition to the scattered storms, freezing
rain and sleet on the back end of the system may bring in a quick
wintry mix to a few portions of central Nebraska later this evening
and tonight. Snowfall amounts should remain less than 0.5",
primarily coating some areas north of HWY-6 with a glazing to few
hundredths of an inch of ice and a trace to few tents of an inch of
snow. Despite the light accumulations, slick spots on roadways mixed
with northerly wind gusts of 25-35MPH could cause reduced
visibilities and tricky travel conditions later this evening and
tonight. At this point in time, we do not believe that impacts will
be widespread enough for a Winter Weather Advisory, though we will
keep a close eye for worsening conditions.

What is diving our forecast?: Aloft, we find the area underneath the
difluent region of a Rockies centered trough, forcing rising motion
from mid-level PVA. Pressure falls at the surface completes the
picture with the triple point of a warm front, cold front and
dryline all meeting across north central Kansas this afternoon. The
warm front, east of the area, will continue to move northeast,
increasing instability ahead of the cold front (up to 2,000J of CAPE
across a few southeastern portions of the area). The dryline setting
up across central Kansas has created a tight moisture gradient that
is mixing eastward. These two features will provide the main support
for this afternoon`s severe storm potential across mainly Filmore,
Thayer, Nuckolls, Jewell, Mitchell and Osborne counties. The last
remaining piece of the puzzle has been the cold front that blew
through a majority of the area already today. This influx of cooler
air near the surface will set the stage up for wintry action across
a few locations north of HWY-6 later this evening and tonight.

The forecast beyond tonight is mostly dry with only a minor 20-30%
chance of precipitation returning to the area Tuesday night. The
upper-level pattern is expected to flatten out zonally, limiting the
potential for am amplified trough/ridging pattern. As result, highs
will remain in the 50s for Saturday then quickly warming back up to
the upper 60s and 70s by Monday. Highs thereafter (through next
Friday) are expected to flip-flop between the 50s, 60s and low 70s.
A cutoff low in the southwest will close in on to the
central/southern Plains around mid-week, possibly aiding in the
development of a Central Plains shortwave trough (reason for the 20-
30% PoPs). At this point in time, this event is too far out to be
able to reveal too many more details. The only other forecast note
will be the presence of near-critical fire weather conditions
setting up across a select portion of the area Saturday through
Monday afternoon. Though areas of critical RH values will likely
file into a portion of our southwestern areas each afternoon, at
this point in time, it is uncertain if the winds will be strong
enough to support critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR ceilings persist for the next several hours, but are
anticipated to scatter out before sunrise on Saturday.

Winds Saturday start out of the northwest, turning to the west
and southwest through the late afternoon and evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Mangels