Crete, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

076
FXUS63 KOAX 201046
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
546 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Considerable uncertainty exists in thunderstorm timing and
  coverage from late this afternoon through tonight. Where
  thunderstorms occur, some severe weather is possible.

- Off-and-on thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast during
  the upcoming week.

- Dangerous heat will be possible next week, namely Tuesday and
  Wednesday, with heat indices up to 100-110.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Today through Monday...

Storms finally developed along a boundary just north of I-80
overnight Heavy rainfall along and north of the Platte River
prompted a few Flood Advisories, where storms dropped a quick 2 to 3
inches of rain. Lingering showers and storms are expected to exit
the forecast area early this morning, with a period of dry weather
into the afternoon hours.

A surface front is expected to remain stalled across our area today,
with quasi-zonal flow aloft. A shortwave disturbance will track
across the northern Plains, initiating convection over the Dakotas
this afternoon/evening. However, confidence is lower farther south
over our forecast area, where forcing is weaker. Given the presence
of the front, there is still a chance of isolated to widely
scattered storms developing in our area this evening. A few CAM
solutions suggest storms developing over western South Dakota could
merge into an MCS that dives southeast across eastern Nebraska
overnight. Overall confidence is low in exactly which scenario will
play out, so opted to maintain 15-30 percent PoPs this evening
and overnight. Once again plenty of instability will be in the
region, with up to 2000 J/kg of CAPE across eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa, but shear will be marginal at 20-40 kts. If
storms do develop/move over the area, a couple could be severe
with hail and strong winds, however they will likely struggle to
remain strong and organized.

Upper ridging builds over the region Monday, giving us a brief break
from the active pattern. Highs on Sunday will range from the low 80s
over northeast Nebraska to the low 90s near the KS/NE border.
Temperatures will warm under the ridge Monday, rising into the 90s
across the forecast area with heat indices up to 100-105.

Tuesday and Beyond...

High pressure continues to build into the Mississippi River valley
through midweek, before a trough pulls a cold front through Central
Plains Wednesday night/Thursday. Warm, moist air will continue to
build into the region ahead of the front. A few warm air advection
showers and storms look possible Tuesday morning, although the
better chance for precipitation will remain north, over the Dakotas,
as a shortwave ripples along the upper ridge.

Highs will push into the mid to upper 90s Tuesday and Wednesday,
with heat indices up to 100-110. Relatively cooler temperatures
could make it into northeast Nebraska Wednesday, giving some
earlier relief from the heat, should the front move a little faster.
Heat headlines still appear possible somewhere within the forecast
area this Monday through Wednesday, so those with any outdoor plans
next week should continue to pay attention to the forecast and
prepare to take necessary precautions to avoid heat related
illnesses.

Precipitation chances will increase Wednesday night into Thursday
with the frontal passage. Additional 15-30 percent PoPs will
remain in the forecast as the surface boundary lingers in the
region through the end of the week. Highs will remain warm, yet
seasonable behind the front, reaching into the upper 80s and low
90s Thursday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Patchy MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities have overspread most of
northeast Nebraska this morning. These may bounce in and out of the
KOFK area, but should improve to VFR by 16Z this morning. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms may develop over the region late
this afternoon and evening, potentially continuing into the
overnight hours. If storms do develop, a few could become strong to
severe. Overall confidence in whether or not precipitation will
actually develop remains too low to include a mention in the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG