Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

372
FXUS65 KCYS 231109
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
509 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will carry through Memorial Day weekend, with
  near record high temperatures possible by Monday.

- Isolated high-based showers and storms will be possible each
  afternoon over the long weekend, but rainfall will be
  limited.

- Potential for thunderstorms and rainfall will increase Tuesday
  and continue through much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 121 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Relatively quieter weather is expected this weekend as the
upper-level trough moves off to the northeast and northwesterly
flow aloft returns to the region. Saturday will feature stout
northwesterly flow aloft with only a few 500mb vorticity lobes
moving through and out of the region. Usually, northwesterly
flow aloft keeps the door open for precipitation chances across
the region, but 700mb flow remains westerly with modest downward
omega values, leading to dry downsloping winds drying out the
surface throughout the day. A very subtle, 700mb short-wave
looks to push through overnight tonight, but looks to only bring
a chance for breezy surface winds as 700mb height gradients
strengthen marginally overnight. However, breezy surface flow is
expected throughout the afternoon along and west of the Laramie
Range as surface pressure gradients remains elevated throughout
the day and westerly, 700mb flow promotes sinking downslope
winds along and just east of the Laramie Range. With dry
conditions from downsloping winds, little to no precipitation is
anticipated today, with clouds increasing ahead of the 700mb
short- wave. Northwesterly flow aloft will keep temperatures on
the cooler side, as compared to Sunday and Monday, with
afternoon high temperatures in the mid-60s to mid-70s
everywhere. Therefore, a pleasant day is in store for the start
of the weekend.

Zonal flow returns for the morning and afternoon hours on Sunday,
leading to continued dry conditions. A few 500mb vorticity lobes
will traverse across the region during the afternoon hours, giving
portions of the CWA slight chance to chance PoPs (15 to 30%) in the
afternoon hours. 700mb flow will remain largely zonal Sunday morning
through the afternoon and evening hours. With weak downslope flow
along and east of the Laramie Range, drier conditions will continue.
Temperatures will warm into the low-70s to mid-80s across the area
as 700mb temperatures warm into the 8 to 11C range in the afternoon.
The dry conditions will not continue long as the next upper-level
system pushes into southern California Sunday evening into the early
morning hours Monday. This system will turn upper-level winds
southwesterly, with a decent fetch of moisture advecting in from the
Pacific Ocean. Multiple lobes of stronger 500mb vorticity will eject
out ahead of the incoming system, leading to the isolated to
scattered precipitation chances, namely west of the Laramie Range
due to drier conditions east of the Laramie Range, though an
isolated shower cannot be ruled out across western Nebraska.
Forecast soundings from the RAP suggests stout Inverted-V profiles
across the entire CWA, leading to the threat for gusty showers
Sunday evening. Minimal precipitation is anticipated to hit the
ground on Sunday evening due to the dry low-levels evaporating
the precipitation first. With DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg, there
is further support for mainly gusty showers, but an isolated
thunderstorm is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

No major changes to the medium to long range forecast period. Please
see previous long range discussion...

By Monday the synoptic pattern starts to shift as the global models
have come to agreement (sort of). Previous model runs treated the
synoptic setup as one low pressure system pushing into the Baja
California region with another northern system to pushes into the
Pacific Northwest. Now the global models all show this as more of a
deep reinforced trough from the Low pushing into the Pacific
Northwest. This will still push us into a southwest advecting in
some moisture from the Pacific and some dry air from the downsloping
winds off the mountains near the surface Monday into Tuesday. By
Tuesday afternoon the low pressure system gets close enough to send
a shortwave as a catalyst to another wet pattern. Thanks to our
summer sun, the synoptic set up of this deep trough will lead to
decent destabilization of the atmosphere and produce scattered
thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening. This bowling ball of a
low looks to roughly get temporarily cut off from the synoptic as a
quasi-omega block begins to setup over the CONUS region. An area of
high pressure appears to sit over the Northern Plains region while
Lows sit and spin over the Nova Scotia region and the West coast.
While the low from the West coast parks itself over Nevada it will
send  with corresponding shortwaves through the intermountain west
for almost daily chances for precipitation through out the week and
possibly the rest of this month to finish out our wet month of
May.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist at all terminals through
the 12Z TAF period. Upper-level clouds are slowly drifting
across the region with light and variable winds at the surface.
Clouds clear out for the mid-morning hours before starting to
increase west to east by 18Z. Isolated showers are possible
today, but confidence is low on any specific terminals being
impacted. Winds will be gusty and erratic in and around any
showers that form this afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...MM/AM
AVIATION...AM