Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

150
FXUS65 KCYS 252332
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
532 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and drier this weekend with temperatures around 5 to 10
  degrees above normal.

- A strong Pacific storm system will bring scattered showers and
  storms along with seasonably cool temperatures for the start
  to middle of next week, with a slow warming trend into the
  later part of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

While some cloud cover lingers this afternoon from the overnight
low stratus and light shower activity, mostly in Laramie County
and through the Nebraska Panhandle, new development of showers
and weak storms is ongoing further west in our area. These
lingering clouds along with some mixed layer stability are
likely contributing to stout CIN values and preventing stronger
convective development, but some meager instability alongside
locally notable PWAT values nearing 1.0 inch should allow for
some stronger showers and storms this evening, with heavy
downpours likely the strongest threat though gusty and erratic
winds cannot be ruled out as well.

As the shortwave inducing this activity passes through the
region, we`ll see drier and warmer southwesterly flow under
ridging dominate through the early part of Sunday. Highs warm
above normal as 850mb temperatures bounce back into the 25-27C
range, keeping us in the 70`s to 80`s for both Saturday and
Sunday. But skies won`t be completely clear and we shouldn`t be
fully devoid of moisture as some upper level moisture does
stream into the region, with surface level RH values remaining
outside of critical thresholds in regards to fire weather
concerns. Sunday should start off similarly warm and dry, but
moisture will begin surging back in response to an approaching
Pacific trough that will become the focal point moving into the
long-term forecast. Isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm chances return Sunday evening into the overnight
period through Monday morning, but with moisture still
rebounding and overall severe parameters lacking, most likely
scenario right now is a few meager cells promoting localized
rain and thunder, with the real show expected early next week
as the Pacific trough fully moves into our region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

After a warm and largely dry weekend, the weather will turn more
unsettled once again as we head into the early part of next week. We
will have an interesting synoptic setup across the area, with the
typical upper level ridge over the southern Plains, combined with an
approaching Pacific trough. The wild-card factor here will be the
potential for an infusion of an exceptionally moist airmass ahead of
and associated with Hurricane Polo as it moves into Baja California
early next week. Unfortunately for our area which remains in drought
conditions, these factors do not look likely to align and produce
heavy rainfall for our area. Instead, the Pacific trough is trending
towards a split trough scenario. The northern branch will move
through on Monday, leaving behind a closed low in the southwest,
which eventually absorbs the remnants of Hurricane Polo. Moisture
will be abundant by Monday, with PW values around the 90th to 99th
percentile of climatology, but forcing and instability look
unimpressive at this time as the core of the northern branch of the
split trough passes to our north. Still, we should have enough to at
least support scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
Look for increased cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures as a
result, though highs should still be a touch above seasonal
averages. A cool front with the northern branch system will knock
temperatures down by about 5-10 degrees for Tuesday. A chance for
showers remains in the forecast, but the most likely scenario at
this time leaves the closed low, and thus the potential for
widespread heavy rainfall, mainly to our south.

Heading into the middle of the week, the most likely scenario
supported by about 80+% of ensemble members features seasonable
temperatures and dry conditions as the upper level closed low spins
to our south. Cloud cover may spill into our southern zones
associated with the system to the south. While the probability of a
different scenario is low, it is still worth a mention. In about 20%
of ensemble members (and the AI-GFS), the closed low over the
southwest lifts more to the north instead of the east, which would
bring abundant wrap-around moisture into our High Plains zones
Wednesday into early Thursday. Regardless of the precipitation
potential, there is also a chance for some strong winds behind this
system. The official forecast reflects the former scenario, which is
far more likely at this time, but we can`t quite rule out the latter
just yet. After the closed low moves out, expect another warm-up
beginning Thursday, and peaking on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Little change from the previous aviation forecast. Shower and
storms are drifting east near KCYS. It is uncertain if any will
directly impact this terminal, but prob30 was maintained here
and KBFF. Showers could hold together to impact KAIA and KSNY
later this evening. Overnight ceilings drop once again,
particularly at KAIA and KSNY. Dense fog is not anticipated, but
a brief reduction in visibility and ceilings could send these terminals
into MVFR. The shortwave bringing the showers/storms will
depart east and behind it dryer and windier conditions will
improve conditions around 9-13z. An area of LLWS is possible
for a few hours while it passes, but the area may be north of
KCYS and west of KBFF. If trends are for it to become more
widespread or cover a terminal the 6z TAFs will be updated
accordingly. Clear to mostly clear skies are expected through
the morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...RV