Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

822
FXUS65 KCYS 141151
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
450 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances of precipitation increase over the weekend for the
  mountains, with a few spotty showers possible mainly along
  and south of the I-80 corridor.

- A more active pattern is expected into the middle of next
  week, with precipitation chances returning Wednesday into
  Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Surface observations and 10.3-3.9 um IR Satellite loop shows
another round of low clouds and areas of fog early this morning,
this time with higher areal coverage compared to last night.
Fog and lower visibility seems to be more confined near the I-25
corridor on the lee-side of the Laramie Range, and across the
Cheyenne Ridge extending into Kimball Nebraska. Dense fog has
been brief and limited to the lower valleys, but will continue
to monitor the areal extent as we head into the early morning
hours in the event we need a Dense Fog Advisory. Otherwise, not
many changes to the weekend forecast as the next Pacific storm
system, currently moving eastward over the Great Basin Region,
is expected to stay south of the Wyoming/Colorado border today.
In fact, models have trended even further south with this system
as of the 00z model runs with high res ensembles (REFS) and the
HRRR showing hardly any precipitation at all outside the
mountains today and this evening. Given this trend, decreased
POP a bit along the I-80 corridor with POP near 50 percent
across the mountains for maybe an inch or two of snow above 9000
feet. Cooler today with ample cloud cover and upslope south to
southeast winds. Highs will struggle to reach the 50s and will
generally top out in the mid 40s to mid 50s through this
afternoon. There is some uncertainty with today`s high
temperatures as low clouds and even some patchy fog may linger
into the afternoon hours. This may keep high temperatures in the
low 40s for a few places across far eastern Wyoming and western
Nebraska. Also, low clouds and fog may return to the high
plains, after a brief break, later tonight. Fog is expected to
be more patchy compared to the last few days with breezy winds
near the surface.

For Sunday, models show the Great Basin storm system ejecting
south and east into Texas and Oklahoma by Sunday morning.
Lingering morning cloud cover should give way to mostly sunny
skies by noon-ish with high temperatures trending back into the
50s to low 60s. Shortwave ridge axis will translate eastward
into the Intermountain West and northern Front Range by later on
Sunday with a gradual warming trend likely into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Monday...The unusually mild weather continues with broad southwest
flow aloft, and high 500 mb heights near 5760 meters overhead. This
will induce decent surface lee troughing and mild weather
enthusiasts will rejoice with 700 mb temperatures near 6 Celsius and
downslope warming boosting maximum temperatures into the mid
50s to mid 60s.

Tuesday...Stronger southwest flow aloft develops across our neck of
the woods here in southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, with a
slightly negatively tilted shortwave trough aloft moving across
Idaho, Utah and western Wyoming, with surface lee troughing keeping
our weather conditions high and dry once again with slightly cooler
700 mb temperatures near 4 Celsius and slightly cooler temperatures
for our forecast area, though still on the mild side.

Wednesday...The aforementioned shortwave trough aloft loses
amplitude as it moves to eastern Montana and the western
Dakotas by sunrise, sending its associated cold front into our
counties, Pacific originated. As is typical with these systems,
will see scattered to numerous rain and snow showers early in
the day west of a Douglas to Laramie line due to dynamics and
orographics with some decent snows across our northern Laramie,
Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges, though downslope wind east of the
mountains and Laramie Range will as usual provide a rain shadow
effect with little if any precipitation east of the Interstate
25 corridor and Laramie Range. Orographic snows will continue in
the afternoon for our Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges, and we may
need some type of Winter Weather Highlight such as a Winter
Weather Advisory, if model congruency continues.

Thursday...Looks like a windy and relatively mild day for November,
the beginning of our typical windy November through March windy
season. Strong southwest flow aloft continues, and our wind prone
locations such as Arlington, Bordeaux and the Interstate 80 Summit
between Laramie and Cheyenne may see some strong winds, and possible
wind highlights.

Friday...For climatology enthusiast, November 20th is the
latest first measurable snowfall event in recorded history for
Cheyenne, with at least one tenth of an inch of snow measured on
the ground. Interestingly, this coincides with a decent and
progressive neutrally tilted shortwave trough aloft that is
progged to move across our forecast area with a rather strong
cold frontal passage, which if model timing is correct will
produce decent orographic snows for our Laramie, Snowy and
Sierra Madre Ranges, and some likely accumulating snow for lower
elevations due to the thickness packing along the front,
dynamics and synoptic forcing, especially if the track of the
system is a bit further south across Colorado, rather than over
Wyoming as currently depicted, so please stay tuned to the
latest forecasts from your entire National Weather Service team.
In any event. Friday the 20th, will be a cold and blustery day
with measurable snow becoming increasingly likely at many
locations, although snowfall amounts are quite unpredictable for
day 7, one week out. Maximum temperatures will only be in the
upper 30s to upper 40s with breezy to windy conditions, only six
days before Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 450 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

A Pacific storm system will remain south of the region today, with
most of the precipitation south of the Interstate 80 corridor.
However, low level upslope flow will continue through tonight across
the northern fringe of this system , resulting in persistent low
clouds and areas of fog at times.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: Persistent IFR to LIFR conditions expected
over the eastern plains, including KCYS and all the western Nebraska
terminals except KCDR for low clouds and areas of fog...sometimes
dense. CIGS may lift to MVFR briefly between 19z and 00z Sunday, but
are expected to fall back to IFR in the evening hours (00z to 03z
Sunday). VFR conditions will continue for KLAR and KRWL over the
next 24 hours with a few light sprinkles or flurries possible.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...TJT