Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

808
FXUS65 KCYS 080821
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
221 AM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM Saturday through 9 PM
  Sunday for all of southeast Wyoming for very low humidities
  and significant gusty winds.

- Hot temperatures continue through the start of the week before
  a pattern change begins to occur as precipitation chances
  start to rise and temperatures fall, dropping to below normal
  by the later half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A warm weekend on tap as we see temperatures back into the 90`s
to triple digits alongside the atmosphere attempting to produce
precipitation, and of course we can`t forget smokey conditions
promoting poor air quality as well. Through the weekend our
CWA will be dominated by upper level high pressure over the
Four Corners, causing flow aloft from the west to northwest.
This will naturally continue to bring wildfire smoke across our
area from the Pacific Northwest, with an Air Quality Alert in
place for all of our Wyoming zones through Monday afternoon.
Also in effect for our Wyoming zones is a Red Flag Warning
through Sunday evening as dry air and breezy conditions continue
to promote a critical environment. Daily RH values in the teens
to single digits are expected, with poor overnight recoveries
tonight only in the 30-40% range (which may be generous given
how poor our recoveries have been the past several days).
Meanwhile, our chances of precipitation may start to increase
beginning later this weekend, but don`t expect a pattern change
that will dramatically alter our hot and dry conditions just
yet. PWAT values for today will be well below normal, by around
20-40%, and a classic inverted V signature is shown in forecast
soundings for the area. This environment will only be able to
produce a dry thunderstorm or gusty virga shower at best with
precipitation at the surface unlikely. Sunday though we`ll see a
bit more moisture begin to move into the region, and PWAT
values should be at or just above average at around 0.75-1".
While soundings still show an inverted V signature and dry
lower level conditions will likely continue to limit what we
can get to the surface, there`s at least a bit more hope that
somewhere could see a small amount of rainfall. But what`s
likely is that we`ll see another round of gusty virga showers
and/or dry lightning, further complicating our critical fire
weather environment. Overall more of the same, but hopefully a
respite is in sight as we move into the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A suppressed ridge pattern will continue throughout the majority
of the long-term forecast period. Monsoonal ridging throughout
the weekend will gradually subside, with the 500mb jet generally
positioned from the Washington/Oregon cascades and stretching
across the northern Rockies into the high plains of Montana and
northern Wyoming. South of this feature, gradually deepening
moisture will spread across the central and southern Rockies
from the Four Corners eastward through the high plains. PWAT
values at selected sites across southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska all show a steady rise each day from Sunday through the
end of the week. This will lead to increasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms each day. By the Wednesday-Friday
timeframe PWAT normalized anomalies in ensemble guidance will
run around 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above the mean. This
will result in high confidence of afternoon thunderstorms, some
of which may contain heavy drenching downpours. Despite better
thunderstorm chances, severe weather remains generally unlikely
in southeast Wyoming with mostly light westerly flow in the mid
and upper-levels present. Farther east into the Nebraska
Panhandle, some faster flow aloft will begin to impinge on the
area from the north by Wednesday as the aforementioned ridge of
high pressure continues to become more suppressed to the south.
Low-end wind shear values on the order of 30-40 knots may assist
with multicell storm modes that could produce organized outflow
wind events during the afternoon hours from Wednesday through
Friday. High confidence exists in above-normal temperatures
continuing through the entire long-term period. However,
increasing coverage of afternoon thunderstorms from mid-week
onward will likely limit temperatures somewhat, generally
running around 10 degrees above normal instead of the near-
record daily heat we will experience this weekend. Overall,
generally high confidence exists in the long-term period with
excellent agreement in ensemble guidance with regard to synoptic
forecast features.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Winds are fairly light out of the south to southeast between 10
to 15 knots at most terminals. Winds are expected to continue to
subside and become variable through the morning. A near surface
inversion has developed with a low level jet atop it, which is
inducing 40 kts of LLWS at KCDR and KAIA. This LLWS is expected
to remain in place through about 12z. Relative humidity values
are expected to increase for the Nebraska Panhandle which may
produce CIGs at terminals to 3 kft or lower. Some patchy fog is
possible, but not likely enough to introduce in the 06z TAFs.
Low clouds rise and burn off by mid morning. The wind pattern
throughout the afternoon in Nebraska is rather chaotic with
numerous wind shifts. Therefore, wind direction forecast is of
lower confidence than normal at the Nebraska Panhandle
terminals. Prevailing direction out of the northwest is expected
for SE Wyoming terminals with gusts approaching 30 knots. Some
late afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms are possible
for the southeast Wyoming terminals, but probabilities remain
too low to introduce in TAFs.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Air Quality Alert until noon MDT Monday for WYZ101>119.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT Sunday
     for WYZ417>433.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...RV