Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

155
FXUS65 KCYS 180817
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
217 AM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical Fire Weather conditions expected on Saturday with
  gusty winds and low humidity values, with further critical
  conditions possible Sunday and again Monday as humidities dive
  into the single digit values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026

High pressure will begin to build into the Rockies today as upper-
level ridging takes hold of western CONUS. The ridge will begin to
push cold air out of the region allowing warmer air to take its
place. High temperatures on Saturday will be much warmer than
Friday, however still below normal for this time of year. West of
the Laramie Range, highs are expected to be in the 40s, while
temperatures east of the range will be in the 50s. These highs
will be roughly 5 to 8 degrees below average for mid-April. With
the ridge building in, precipitation chances will be minimal,
but cannot rule out a stray shower in the northern Nebraska
panhandle as residual moisture and energy from the trough push
out during the afternoon. Dry air will also be ushered in with
the ridge, leading to rapid drying of the low-levels. The dry
air combined with the blustery conditions expected today will
lead to critical fire weather conditions for most areas east of
the Laramie Range.

A return to above average temperatures is expected on Sunday as 700
mb temperatures climb above 0C. Highs will reach the 60s for most
areas, leading to a pleasant day across the forecast area. With the
approaching ridge axis, precipitation is not expected as sunny skies
dominate. The approaching axis will also ensure that the low-levels
stay extremely dry, with relative humidity falling into the single
digits. This poses a concern for fire weather, however light winds
under the ridge will limit any critical conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The work week will begin under the influence of a longwave ridge
centered over the Rocky Mountain region, placing us in mid-level
zonal flow. Unsurprisingly this will result in well above average
temperatures, with locations east of the Laramie Range in the 70s
and low 80s, especially in our Nebraska counties. West of I-25,
temperatures will be slightly cooler in the 60s. Fire weather will
be the main concern on Monday as median RH values are around 10%
east of the Laramie Range per LREF guidance. Ensemble guidance also
has median wind gusts of 20-25 mph, so combined with plenty of dry
fuels given that our recent system didn`t provide much in the way of
moisture, fire conditions look to be elevated at this time. Have
issued a Fire Weather Watch for area along and east of I-25 for this
reason through Monday evening.

Not much change for Tuesday, except for slightly weaker winds which
should decrease the fire concerns. RH values will also be slightly
higher in the 15-20% range. High temperatures look to be a about 5
degrees warmer than Monday considering the ridge axis is progged to
be located over SE Wyoming and W Nebraska. Not exactly threatening
daily record highs, but temperatures should reach 20 degrees above
climatology.

Wednesday the ridge begins to progress to the east, placing us in a
southwesterly flow regime ahead of a closed low located over Oregon
and Northern California. High temperatures look to remain similar to
those of Tuesday, however given weak forcing for ascent downstream
of the closed low, we may manage to see some high-based convection.
Ensemble model soundings indicate inverted-v profiles, so wind is
more likely than any beneficial rainfall. This is also consistent
with ensemble median PWAT values which are around climatology,
suggesting the overall lack of moisture.

On Thursday, the closed low progresses into an open wave and lifts
off to the north and east of our area, bringing us a series of
vorticity maxima along the base of the shortwave, providing some
greater forcing for ascent. At the very least, this should increase
cloud cover over Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska. There is
a slight increase in PWAT (0.05" more) relative to Wednesday,
however the bulk of the moisture remains well to our north and east,
so precipitation chances appear low at this time, so will keep low
PoPs in the forecast. Given the increasing cloud cover, we can
expect temperatures to be 10-15 degrees cooler than Wednesday`s
highs.

Ensembles are hinting at a cold front pushing across our area
sometime Thursday evening into Friday morning, so Friday is expected
to be much cooler than the rest of the work week. With the general
lack of moisture along with quasi-zonal flow, beneficial
precipitation unfortunately doesn`t look to accompany this
front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A few isolated snow showers continue to drift across the region
tonight, potentially impacting KCYS, KLAR, KRWL, and KSNY.
Probability of these terminals seeing snow are low, so included
PROB30 groups to highlight to 2 to 3 hours most likely to see snow
impacts. After snow finally moves out of the are overnight, expect
clearing skies into the morning hours. Winds start to increase late
morning into the afternoon hours, with gusts upwards of 25-30kts
possible at all terminals. Isolated, high clouds move back into the
area late in the period.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for WYZ430>433.
     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening
     for WYZ417-418-430>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for NEZ434>437.
     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening
     for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AM