Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

441
FXUS65 KCYS 152329
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
429 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire danger will remain elevated to near-critical through at
  least Tuesday.

- A High Wind Watch has been issued for southeast Wyoming,
  mainly along and west of the Interstate 25 corridor.

- Moderate to heavy mountain snowfall is expected from Tuesday
  through Thursday this week, mainly above 8500 feet. A Winter
  Storm Watch is in effect for the Snowy and Sierra Madre
  Ranges.

- Snow squalls possible west of the Laramie Range Tuesday
  morning with the passage of a cold front.

- Snowfall is possible over the Plains Wednesday into
  Thursday, followed by temperatures falling below seasonal
  averages for the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 259 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

MONDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE FELT. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ABOVE 0C, WHICH IS ROUGHLY THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR NAEFS
CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MILD DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OUT WEST, TO 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THESE HIGHS ARE ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-
FEBRUARY. WITH A JET STREAK OVERHEAD, EXPECT TO SEE SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS JET STREAK WILL ALSO
LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

BY MONDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SWING INTO WYOMING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING BOTH PRECIPITATION AND WIND, HOWEVER THE
WIND WILL ARRIVE FIRST. HIGH WIND WATCHES WERE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT
NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EARLIER START TIME TO SOME OF
THESE WATCHES. BUMPED THE START TIME UP TO MONDAY EVENING FOR
SOME OF THE CARBON COUNTY ZONES AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT RAPIDLY
INCREASES UP TO 55 KTS WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE. KEPT THE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING START TIME FOR THE OTHER WATCHES AS
MSLP AND CAG TO CPR HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE SLOW TO STEEPEN.
DESPITE THIS, WINDS ALOFT WILL RAMP UP TO 60 KTS BY TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OF THE INCOMING JET STREAK.

BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL ARRIVE IN CARBON COUNTY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT, WITH HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR SHOWING MORE
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OUT
WEST. A QUICK LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS DOES INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR FEBRUARY. COMBINED WITH THE ALREADY
PRESENT STRONG BACKGROUND WINDS EXPECTED, SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MODELED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ALSO SUPPORT THE NOTION
THAT SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR SNOW
SQUALLS WILL BE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS PRESENT EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE, HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT BEFORE
IT EVEN REACHES THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS OUT WEST WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY MINIMAL FROM
SQUALL/SHOWER ACTIVITY, HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A QUICK INCH FROM
BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. WHILE THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE DONE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TUESDAY MORNING WILL ACTUALLY MARK THE START OF
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES. MOIST, SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN STEADY LIGHT
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE MOUNTAINS STARTING TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY COULD REACH UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BESIDES THE PRECIPITATION, HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A FEW ADDITIONAL ZONES TO THE EXISTING
HIGH WIND WATCH, INCLUDING THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE, FOOTHILLS, AND
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY. IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR THESE LOCATIONS HITTING HIGH WINDS, BUT EXTREMELY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO EXIST IN THESE AREAS WHICH WILL HELP GET
50 TO 60 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ARGUMENTS COULD BE MADE
FOR POSSIBLE WATCH EXPANSION FURTHER EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE
WITH 60 KT WINDS ALOFT AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER,
THE PLACEMENT OF THE 250 MB JETSTREAK PUTS THE CWA IN AN AREA OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE IT DIFFICULT
FOR HIGH WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN AREAS FURTHER EAST.
REGARDLESS OF IF THIS HAPPENS, A VERY WINDY DAY IS STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL LIKELY EASE TUESDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

A train of progressive troughs moving across the Rockies from the
Pacific this week will keep active weather continuing through Friday
or Saturday, before mild weather and ridging begins to make a return
by Sunday.

On Wednesday morning, the area will be in between systems as the
first wind storm moves out across the northern Plains. The second
trough will be another powerful Pacific trough rapidly moving inland
during the middle of the week. Cloud layer RH and mean wind show
moist orographic lift continuing in the mountains even in between
the troughs, suggesting there may not be much of a break in mountain
snowfall, though rates will certainly decrease for a period of time.
Much of the area should see a break from the winds Wednesday morning
with a reduced cross-barrier height gradient setting up in between
troughs. In addition, the departing first trough will drop a surface
high pressure over the Montana plains, and the edge of this features
will try to creep into our northern zones. While we are not
expecting this to manifest as an actual arctic frontal boundary for
our area, the increased surface pressure spreading down the I-25
corridor should help provide at least a temporary break from the
strong winds. The strong subtropical jet streak out ahead of the
primary trough moving across the Great Basin on Wednesday will have
noticeable diffluent flow aloft, supporting rapid pressure falls
just in the lee of the mountains during the day and evening on
Wednesday. Winds will gradually increase through the day again,
particularly west of I-25, as surface pressure falls and lee
cyclogenesis occurs. Expect to find a stalled frontal boundary
somewhere over the area, which as of now appears most likely to set
up along the North Platte River Valley. North/east of this boundary,
we will see lighter upslope flow, while stronger south to southwest
winds can be expected south/west of the boundary.

The primary surface low is expected to develop over northeast
Colorado (a rare positioning for this winter season). However, a
secondary surface low over southwest or central Wyoming will keep
southwest winds in place over Carbon, Albany, and possibly Laramie
county, keeping winds elevated here. We will have the low-level
upslope flow in place north of the stalled boundary, and forcing
aloft looks to improve Wednesday afternoon and evening as isentropic
lift kicks up in advance of the approaching trough. This system will
be quite progressive, and thus the window for snowfall is not very
long, but we have several lifting mechanisms present including those
mentioned above, plus vorticity advection aloft, and strong
frontogenesis. This will help spread snowfall out into the High
Plains Wednesday late afternoon into early Thursday morning.

This system has the potential to be the first widespread
accumulating snow event of the year, but some portions of the
forecast area will still probably miss out once again. Highest
confidence in impactful snow accumulation (in addition to the
mountains) at this time is along the US-20 corridor from Douglas to
Chadron, and along the I-80 corridor in Carbon county. Based on
ratios of about 15:1, the median ensemble member has over 2" of snow
falling in both Douglas and Chadron with about 25% of members over
4" of snow. Further west, there is medium confidence in snow impacts
too, but the characteristics will be different. The isentropic lift
and thus the stratiform valley snowfall will probably not make it
into Carbon county, but forecast soundings show very steep lapse
rates through the entire troposphere near Rawlins Wednesday
afternoon. In addition, strong mechanical forcing is expected as the
secondary surface low over central Wyoming gives into the primary
low over northeast Colorado. As this occurs, expect rapid increases
in surface pressure as the frontal boundary sweeps in from the west.
As a result, Wednesday will probably bring another chance for
convective snow showers and possibly snow squalls to Carbon county.
Snowfall in Laramie will depend on the ability of the convective
snow showers to continue east of the Snowy Range, which is a little
more uncertain than Rawlins. Probabilities for 1" of snow are around
40% at this time. The I-80 corridor from Cheyenne eastward is the
most likely area to miss out on this snow event. Southwest winds in
the early phases of the event transitioning to westerly winds later
are rather unfavorable. There is a scenario supported by about 25%
of ensemble members with a stronger, more southerly upper level
trough which would allow for the isentropic lift to set up further
south and include the Cheyenne area, but this is not the most likely
scenario at this time. Median 24-hour QPF for Cheyenne is only
0.02", which would just be a dusting to a half inch of snow. The
model mean is skewed somewhat by a small handful of high outliers.

Once the upper level trough axis swings through late Wednesday
evening, we will see rapid dry air advection into the I-80 corridor,
along with another increase in wind speeds. Due to the cold front
and surface high pressure over the High Plains, this round of wind
will likely be confined to areas west of I-25 (though can`t rule out
gusts of 60+ mph creeping into the Cheyenne area). In-house guidance
is depicting around a 50% chance for high winds in the Arlington/Elk
Mountain and I-80 summit areas Wednesday evening into early Thursday
morning. Expect a cold and windy day on Thursday, which could lead
to blowing snow concerns in areas receiving snowfall on Wednesday
night. However, the probability for high winds is fairly low (10%
for the High Plains).

Models are beginning to pick up on one final trough in this train
moving through the area around the Friday or Friday night time
period. This one looks weaker than the two preceding systems, and
without as strong of a moisture tap to the Pacific. Nonetheless,
recent ensemble guidance is trending a little bit more aggressive on
precipitation, primarily for the mountains. This may bring another
chance for some light snow over the Plains and strong winds in the
wind prone areas in its wake. Ensembles are in good agreement
showing strong ridging beginning to build back into the area by
Sunday supporting another warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 426 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period. Wind gusts will
ease over the High Plains overnight, but RWL will remain gusty,
and LAR is expected to develop some LLWS when the surface winds
die down.

Southwest winds gusting 30 to 40 knots will pick up again
Monday morning for RWL and LAR. Winds will shift to the south
for all High Plains terminals and begin gusting 15 to 25 knots
around midday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ417-418-
     428>433.
     High Wind Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening
     for WYZ101-106-107-115>118.
     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for WYZ104-109.
     High Wind Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening
     for WYZ105-110-111-113.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through late
     Wednesday night for WYZ112-114.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN