Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

079
FXUS65 KCYS 250541
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1141 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool but seasonable temperatures will continue with a warming
  trend expected for the weekend.

- A brief drying trend expected for the weekend, ahead of a
  potential strong Pacific storm system moving into the Front
  Range early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Tonight...A weak shortwave trough aloft, oriented west
to east, will move slowly north across Wyoming with deeper low and
mid level moisture transported northward across our forecast area.
Even with a decent low and mid level theta-e ridge axis in the area,
lift will be minimal due to synoptic and orographic and mesoscale
features, though the usually dependable HRRR does depict isolated
showers and thunderstorms developing late this afternoon, through
this evening to the south of a Laramie to Scottsbluff line. Thus,
will maintain isolated to widely scattered POPS for locations near
the Colorado state line, and later gridded forecast updates may need
to adjust POPS higher further north. Looks like fog and low clouds
will become widespread as per boundary layer relative humidity and
upslope wind progs, thus expect rather widespread fog to develop,
which may be tempered by the areal coverage of low clouds. We did
see some local areas of dense fog this morning across far eastern
Laramie County of Wyoming and the southern Nebraska Panhandle,
including Kimball and believe a persistence forecast for fog
development is prudent due to the moist low levels.

Friday...With the flow at mid levels turning southwest, a decent
surface lee trough will develop from northwest to southeast
bisecting our counties from Douglas to Cheyenne, with a rather
impressive 850/700 mb theta-e ridge axis along the spine of the
Laramie Range and the Interstate 25 corridor. Decent low level
convergence along the surface trough, combined with diurnal heating
and differential heating due to terrain differences over the
mountains, is expected to spawn scattered showers and some
thunderstorms from the Laramie Valley northward to Douglas and also
including the southern Laramie Range and central Laramie County
including Cheyenne.

Saturday/Saturday night...Will see a pleasant beginning to the
weekend as ridging aloft moves overhead and surface low pressure
develops over central Wyoming. Although low level moisture will be
adequate, warm temperatures aloft from 10 to 12 Celsius will likely
provide enough convective inhibition, CIN, to minimize shower and
thunderstorm potential, thus will maintain our current dry forecast.
Excellent late September day for outdoor weather enthusiasts and
outdoor weather activities. Quiescent overnight Saturday night with
minimum temperatures in the 40s west of Interstate 25, and lower 50s
further east, making it quite pleasant to open up windows for fresh,
cool air.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Long term starts quiet but then we`ll see a good shot of fall
weather to start the next work week, giving us cooler
temperatures and widespread precipitation followed by a dryout
and warming period into the middle of the week. Sunday morning
at least starts out relatively quiet and dry as we`ll see
afternoon temperatures warm in the mid 70`s to mid 80`s for the
day. But an incoming shortwave along with increasing moisture
should help to usher in a few late evening and overnight showers
or storms prior to the more eventful Monday and Tuesday. The
work week then starts out with a surface cold front approaching
the region and moving across into Tuesday, while deep upper
level troughing from the Pacific moves in and across the region.
This system brings a nice influx of moisture, with PWAT values
approaching 170-200% of normal. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms start to overspread the region into the early
afternoon hours, but guaranteed moisture encompassing most of
our forecast area occurs during the evening into the overnight
hours through Tuesday morning. Initial activity could include
thunderstorms, with favorable lapse rates and marginal
instability alongside some stout bulk wind shear for our eastern
zones. Therefore, a few storms could be on the stronger side,
but with how much cloud cover and overspreading precipitation we
are expecting, this should be few and far between as of this
writing. Otherwise, widespread QPF looks both generous and
fairly plentiful, with most of our CWA seeing a tenth to a
quarter of an inch, with locally heavier totals in the strongest
downpours. Our mountain zones should be seeing around an inch
of QPF meanwhile, and overnight temperatures into Tuesday
morning will be approaching freezing, meaning they may see their
first snow (albeit light) of the season. Behind the cold front,
temperatures on Tuesday will sit around 5-8 degrees below
normal, giving us highs in the 50`s and 60`s. And then expect
chilly mornings through the rest of the forecast period, as low
temperatures bottom out in the 40`s, possibly even upper 30`s,
particularly if we can get any overnight clearing to allow for
even more cooling. We`ll be looking at similarly cool
temperatures into Wednesday as highs stay in the 60`s, to just
around 70`s, with another chance of precipitation as a shortwave
passes across with deep upper level troughing just to our north
as we end the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Ceilings are lowing near areas of light mist and showers near KCYS
and KSNY. Expect ceilings to continue to lower at all terminals
through the night. Additionally areas of fog are expected to
form at most Nebraska Panhandle terminals, excluding KCDR where
latest guidance has backed off of fog somewhat. KCYS and KLAR
could see fog or CIGs that drop below MVFR as well. The timing
for the greatest risk of IFR or LIFR conditions appears to be
from 11 through 15z, though it is certainly possible conditions
deteriorate quicker or persist outside this range. Ceilings
improve in the mid to late morning, but may still be in MVFR at
terminals into the afternoon. A short wave trough near KRWL is
expected to kick off a few showers and storms from KRWL east
through KLAR and KCYS from mid afternoon through the evening.
Some signals of a low level jet are beginning to show up for
tomorrow night and could end up imparting LLWS. Just something
to watch for in the upcoming aviation forecasts.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RV