Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

536
FXUS65 KCYS 260732
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
132 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain showers and mountain snowfall expected
  through Monday morning as a central Pacific system lifts
  northeast across the region.

- Near normal temperatures and a bit warmer by Tuesday through
  Thursday, but the next Pacific system will be approaching from
  the eastern Pacific later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 129 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Much welcomed rainfall is ongoing across SE Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle at this hour associated an amplified open wave and a
region of diffluence aloft. Latest MRMS QPE has estimated as much as
0.60" of rainfall has fallen across portions of Carbon and Albany
Counties, with totals closer to 0.20" in Cheyenne. Amounts have been
much lighter across the Panhandle at this time, which is expected to
ramp up overnight into Monday morning as the shortwave trough lifts
to the north and east.

Current surface observations show ENE upslope flow east of the
Laramie Range, with temperatures mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s
under low cloud cover, likely keeping our temperatures well above
freezing through the overnight period. Radar imagery has shown quite
a bit of bright banding this evening and overnight (ring of enhanced
reflectivity collocated with reduced correlation coefficient),
meaning that the melting layer isn`t terribly far above the surface,
so wouldn`t be surprised to see some melting flakes mixed in with
some of the heavier showers primarily across northern regions of the
Panhandle, although no snow accumulation is expected. 00Z analysis
combined with latest model guidance shows the main axis of
isentropic ascent/warm advection gradually shifting more to the east
over our Nebraska Panhandle counties towards sunrise, therefore
expect precipitation coverage to increase through the night. Latest
SPC Mesoanalysis shows a narrow region of 100-250 J/Kg of MUCAPE
draped along the I-80 corridor across Kimball and Cheyenne Counties,
so cannot rule out a lightning strike or two with some weak,
embedded elevated convection, however decided to keep thunder out of
the grids due to < 15% confidence and low coverage. High resolution
ensemble guidance has median QPF ranging from 0.30" across the NW
Panhandle, to as high as 0.75" further south and east, with lighter
amounts across SE Wyoming in addition to what we have currently
received. This seems reasonable given PWAT at the 99th percentile
for this time of year, as we have a lot of total column moisture to
work with. While certainly not a drought-buster, this is excellent
moisture for drought-stricken areas as the current drought monitor
has our region ranging anywhere from moderate (D1) to exceptional
drought (D4). Expect precipitation coverage to gradually
decrease from west to east as we head into the daytime on Monday
morning, with SE Wyoming likely being dry come mid morning, and
regions of the Nebraska Panhandle seeing precipitation exit the
area by early afternoon. Low cloud cover may be stubborn
tomorrow given the upslope flow regime, so high temperatures are
expected to remain mainly in the 40s east of the Laramie Range,
and low 50s to the west where fewer clouds are expected. One
exception will be across the northern Panhandle where clouds and
precipitation will stick around the longest, and ENE upslope
flow will keep clouds banked up against the Pine Ridge.

Into Monday night, mostly dry conditions will prevail as this system
exits our region and weak mid-level shortwave ridging builds in.
Under the subsident flow and light winds, cannot rule out some low
clouds east of the I-25 corridor given the damp soils, light winds,
and residual moisture. Will let the day shift evaluate the potential
for fog coverage Monday night into Tuesday morning as confidence
remains too low at this time.

Tuesday will begin our warming trend as the flow regime becomes more
WSW ahead of a trough located over the Pacific Northwest. As the
ridge builds to our east, expect much milder day with high
temperatures expected to reach the low 60s east of the I-25
corridor, with low to mid 50s to the west of the Laramie Range. Dry
conditions are expected into Tuesday with temperatures largely
remaining above freezing. Effective radiative cooling during the
overnight period will be limited as 700 mb cross-barrier flow ramps
up to 40-50 knots, which will increase our wind speeds at the
surface into Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 129 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Medium Range models remain in good agreement for much of mid to
late week as weak to moderate southwest flow aloft dominates the
weather pattern across the northern Front Range. With a lack of
Pacific (shortwave) energy embedded in the mean southwest flow
aloft through Friday, expect generally dry conditions
and mild temperatures Wednesday through Friday as the polar jet
stream will remain well to the north, and the subtropical jet
should stay well south of the region near the Mexico/USA border and
into Texas. Since southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska will be in
between storm tracks, relatively mild temperatures are expected
through the end of the week with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to
upper 60s. Temperatures should peak Friday afternoon as 700mb
temperatures climb over 5c ahead of the next Pacific storm system
moving onshore, with a few locations possibly reaching 70 degrees
east of the Interstate 25 corridor.

Deterministic models are in better agreement for next weekend,
but ensembles still depict relatively low confidence with
precipitation chances...mainly due to the evolution and speed
of the Pacific energy moving onshore. Thankfully, with the
Pacific energy trending a little slower, Halloween evening looks
decent with maybe a few rain showers in the evening.
Temperatures should be relatively mild for this time of the year
in the upper 30s to upper 40s between sunset and 10:00 PM.
Winds appear light and variable and should result in a pleasant
evening. Models do show the first of a series of upper level
disturbances lifting northward across the area on Halloween, but
the system is pretty progressive with the best dynamics located
north and west of the I-25 corridor. A more potent system is
forecast to arrive on Sunday and continue early next week. Model
solutions and ensemble members diverge significantly with this
storm system, so will not go into too much detail at this time.
However, temperatures will trend cooler and likely below average
for this time of the year by next Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A storm system moving across the area will bring impactful
conditions to area terminals tonight and into the day Monday. Low
CIGs and visibility are being observed at most terminals and will
continue overnight and into tomorrow morning. Showers and fog are
causing visibility reductions with CIGs hovering between IFR and
MVFR east of the Laramie Range. Precipitation will become heavier
and more widespread in the Nebraska panhandle early Monday morning.
Further visibility reductions are expected from this with very low
ceilings. Precipitation will taper off by the afternoon for most
terminals, with conditions improving slowly during the afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...SF