Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

379
FXUS65 KCYS 071806
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1206 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue
  through the work week.

- A pattern change is increasingly likely beginning around this
  weekend into early next week, but the details remain
  uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Quiet and warmer than normal weather will continue over the next
48 hours with mostly clear skies over southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska early this morning. Upper level ridge axis over
most of the Intermountain West will continue to drive the dry
conditions and unseasonable warmth over the region. A few showers
and embedded thunder showers noted on radar this morning over
northern Colorado and north central Colorado. This activity
should remain south of the border, so will keep POP near 0% for
the rest of this morning.

For today and Thursday, little to no precipitation is expected
with dry conditions continuing through early Friday morning.
Although shallow fair weather CU is expected again today in
response to surface heating, didn`t get much shower activity
yesterday north of the CO/WY border...and expect that trend to
continue today with high res guidance backing off on any threat
of showers. This appears to be mainly due to the delay with the
slow backdoor cold front moving into the area. Surface analysis
shows what appears to be the stalled backdoor cold front near
over the western Nebraska panhandle and will likely move little
through this morning. Models still show some low level
convergence near the Laramie Range this afternoon, but with a
dry boundary layer and poor midlevel lapse rates, kept POP
below 10 percent, but most places will just see virga outside of
the mountains if anything does form.

High temperatures won`t be quite as high as the previous few
days, but near record highs are still expected...especially at
Laramie and Rawlins. The next decent chance for widespread
record highs will be Friday afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures
will remain around 15 degrees above average for early October
with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s, warmest for elevations
below 5000 feet.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The long term forecast will change from having warm light winds and
clearer skies to a more active pattern. Starting sometime Friday
night and through the weekend a low pressure system will start to
push in from the Pacific Northwest and begin to start feeding that
Pacific Moisture into the Intermountain West region. THe height
gradient will also begin to tighten so breezier conditions can also
be expected as the process begins to take shape. Depending on which
global model you look at they all paint almost the same overall
picture with some minute timing differences. However with weather,
the details and timing are always the deciding factors with how this
unfolds. Right now, some of the global ensembles have precipitation
starting as early as Sunday morning some have it starting as early
as Sunday night. Which could mean the difference of rain or snow for
our mountain peaks and an earlier snowpack the better in my opinion.
However, everywhere else in our area thats not the peaks of the
Snowy range or Sierra Madres look to be getting rain and high
temperatures look to only drop into the 50`s and 60`s during this
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period. Winds are
generally light today, but occasional gusts up to around 20
knots are possible. The direction will become variable at times
overnight before settling on west for most terminals mid
Thursday morning.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MN