Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

285
FXUS65 KCYS 161131
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
431 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread strong to locally damaging winds will continue
  through the day today.

- High winds may continue through Sunday in the wind prone
  areas.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
  Friday and Saturday due to gusty winds, low humidity, and dry
  fuels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

GOES water vapor imagery shows a narrow stream of upper level
moisture over the area getting slowly pushed southward as arctic air
moves down from the north. We have been in a lull of the strong
winds for the last several hours, likely due to some modest
ascending motion moving through the area behind the initial frontal
passage. Radar continues to show snow showers moving across portions
of southeast Wyoming, but coverage is beginning to decrease as
forcing for ascent weakens. Descent should take over shortly, which
will end both the snow shower potential and the lull in the strong
winds. Northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota have been seeing
consistent 60+ mph gusts over the last few hours, and this should
expand into our area as descending motion works its way southward.
The strongest winds will be over the area generally between about
7AM and 3PM. Expect widespread gusts of 60 to 75 mph, with a few
isolated higher gusts possible. The most likely areas for these
stronger gusts remain the wind prone areas along I-80 (Laramie to
Elk Mountain and Cheyenne to Vedauwoo), and the US-20 corridor.
Temperatures will be quite cold today, in the 20s to low 30s for
most. Morning wind chills will be around 0F, and will only recover
to the lower teens at best during the afternoon. Despite the cold
temperatures, a very dry airmass moving in overhead will put fairly
low RH in place today. Grassland fire danger will be elevated once
again. However, RH should remain above thresholds for a Red Flag
Warning, but due to the extreme wind speeds, there could still be
control issues for new grassland wildfires today in areas that did
not receive enough snow to cover the grass last evening. It is
difficult to assess where snow was able to reach the ground via
webcams, but will re-evaluate once reports start coming in later
this morning.

After sunset today, expect strong winds to decouple from the
surface, but the flow aloft will remain strong all through the
night. Still, we should see gusts come down to a more reasonable 40
to 55 mph. Most high wind warnings expire at 5PM, but the I-80 wind
prone areas will continue into Saturday morning when the 700-mb flow
finally comes down. We may need to watch for a few isolated gusts to
60 mph overnight, but this will be much more limited than during the
day on Friday. Recent model guidance has begun to pick up on a
narrow filament of increased moisture moving into the area this
evening, but are rather inconsistent on the placement of this
feature and the amount it may increase dewpoints. Still, following
this trend, hi-res models have begun to show some light snow
developing this evening, mainly in the higher terrain where
orographic lift will be enough to extract a few snowflakes. We could
see another dusting to an inch or so in the higher terrain, with
perhaps 1-3" above 10 kft.

Saturday will be another dry and windy day across the area, but wind
speeds will be lower than Friday. Look for gusts of 40 to 55 mph in
the morning, gradually decreasing through the afternoon.
Temperatures will still be cold, but a remarkably dry airmass will
move in overhead. Precipitable water values over the Nebraska
panhandle on Saturday will be less than 0.10, and possibly as low as
0.05. These are largely below the lowest percentile of climatology.
Surface dewpoints could be as low as -10 to -20F which will push RH
near or below 15%. Fire weather headlines will likely be needed, but
decided to wait for the next shift to get a better idea of where
snow fell last night. By Saturday evening, the ridge aloft will
begin to push westward, helping to spread improved moisture eastward
with the miler air. This brief amplification of the ridge will occur
ahead of another shortwave diving down from the north. A surface low
will accompany this feature, and expect to see surface pressure
falling over the High Plains Saturday evening. The cross-barrier
pressure gradient will begin to climb as a result, possibly bringing
another window for High Winds Saturday evening into early Sunday
morning. However, this will be a more traditional event, likely
confined to the typical wind prone areas. Current probabilities are
around 50% for the wind prone areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Model guidance continues to trend faster with Sunday`s cold frontal
passage. Now, it looks more like a morning cold front, which will
likely prevent Sunday`s highs from warming much above seasonal
averages. In addition to the cold front, this feature will be
trailed by another potent 700-mb jet similar to today`s event, but
placed a bit further north and east. LREF mean 700-mb winds during
the day on Sunday are above 50 knots northeast of a roughly Lusk to
Sidney line. While most of the area will see gusty northwest winds
once again, we may need to watch for another round of 60+ mph gusts
in the northern Nebraska panhandle and Niobrara county. Breezy
conditions may last into Monday with temperatures remaining near or
slightly below average for this time of year. Warm air advection
should boost temperatures back above seasonal averages on Tuesday,
but of course, this will come with another chance for strong winds
in the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming.

The latter half of next week is a bit more interesting, with
ensembles diverging wildly. Most members agree that the extremely
persistent ridge over the western CONUS will at least begin to
weaken. However, there is disagreement on whether it will breakdown
fully and transition to a more zonal flow pattern over the CONUS, or
just weaken slightly. Regardless, an arctic surface high pressure
appears likely to be positioned over the Canadian Prairie by
midweek. The main questions for our area are then 1) if this arctic
high will push south into our area and then 2) if so, when will that
occur. Currently, about 20% of ensemble members bring this
front south on Wednesday into Thursday, giving a shot for light
snow and colder temperatures. Most other members still bring a
cool down, but hold it off until the weekend. Amongst those,
there is discrepancy regarding how far south the cold air will
push. Some bring this well to the south, opening the door to
Pacific moisture and widespread snowfall, while other stall the
cold front on our doorstep, likely giving us cold air but not
much snow. The main takeaway is that the forecast for the latter
part of next week still has quite a bit of uncertainty, but
there is a chance for something other than wind (although of
course, that will be there too) to sneak into our area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 429 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Snow showers are clearing out this morning, and the main
aviation hazard today will be strong winds. All terminals except
RWL can expect gusts of 35 to 45 knots this morning, increasing
to 45 to 55 knots between 14z and 16z. A few gusts exceeding 60
knots will be possible. Expect winds to weaken slightly around
sunset, but gusts of 35 to 45 knots will remain possible through
the night and into Saturday morning. Overnight winds may not be
quite as consistent as the daytime, and could be accompanied by
LLWS during lulls at the surface.

Another round of snow showers may impact LAR and RWL this
evening. Confidence is low, but hinted at this with a PROB30
group.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ101-102-
     106>108-118-119.
     High Wind Warning until noon MST Saturday for WYZ110-116-117.
     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for WYZ115.
NE...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN