Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

966
FXUS65 KCYS 211145
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
545 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of southeast Wyoming
  and the Nebraska panhandle today through this evening.
  Critical fire weather conditions expected.

- Record warmth will continue Saturday with all-time record high
  temperatures for the month of March likely.

- Cooler, though still above average, temperatures return Sunday
  behind a cold front. Isolated showers possible with this
  frontal passage Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Not many changes to the forecast for this weekend, with record
setting temperatures still on track for Saturday. Still expect
a cool front to push south across the area late tonight.
Although this front will bring cooler air for Sunday, still
expect high temperatures Sunday afternoon to be 5 to 10 degrees
above average for late March.

All models show the 593-595dm upper level high nearly stationary
for much of the day today and finally drifting southeast into
New Mexico. Flow aloft will become more zonal for the Front
Range and increase through the day as the next "cool" front
slides south across Montana and northern Wyoming. NAEFS
continues to show 700mb and 500mb temperatures and geopotential
height at all-time highs for this time of the year with very
little change compared to 24 to 48 hours ago. Kept forecast
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s for southeast Wyoming,
and in the low 90s for Torrington and all of western Nebraska.
Decided to keep high temperatures a few degrees shy of the all-
time record high temperatures for the month of April due to:
(a) how unlikely this event typically is and (b) high clouds are
expected to increase from northwest to southeast, which will
likely result in slightly less warming mid to late afternoon.
Either way, Most all-time record high temperatures for the month
of March will be tied or broken. It`s going to be on the hot
side for locations east of the Interstate 25 corridor. Outside
of fire weather concerns, minimal to no impacts expected.

For Saturday night and Sunday, models continue to show the next
cold front moving southward across the high plains with 700mb
temperatures lowering between 0c-5c behind the front. Afternoon
temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees cooler compared to
Saturday, but this is still 5 to 10 degrees above average for
this time of the year with afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s
to low 60s. Winds are expected to shift into the east along and
east of the Laramie Range with increasing dewpoints and higher
humidities, which should temporarily end our widespread fire
weather concerns. As for precipitation, models have backed off
on scattered shower activity across southeast Wyoming. With
ample instability Sunday afternoon and evening, can`t rule out
some weak rain showers over the area, including the northern
Nebraska panhandle late Sunday and Sunday night. It will be
awfully dry above the surface, so most of the activity may just
stay as virga with not much precip reaching the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Sunday`s reprieve from the warm pattern will be brief however,
as the upper level ridge re-strengthens and its influence
spreads back over our region beginning Monday. Dry air will
start advecting east in from the Intermountain West and desert
regions, along with substantial surface mixing during the day,
will send relative humidity values back down into the teens.
This is despite overcast conditions most of Monday and Tuesday.
Overnight humidity recoveries are poor with how dry the surface
has been, only reaching 40 to 50% values. Daily maximum
temperature records are likely to break again on Wednesday as
highs soar into the 80s and possibly 90s over the plains
regions. Another concern is the arrival of stronger 700mb flow
influenced by several embedded shortwaves that tighten the
pressure gradients Tuesday and Wednesday. Internal machine
learning guidance highlights elevated probabilities of 40 to 50%
that our wind prones reach high wind criteria. These conditions
do point towards elevated fire weather concerns, particularly
Wednesday.

Overnight Wednesday a cold front passage is being advertised in the
guidance. An upper level trough riding along the US/Canadian boarder
will push the ridge back south and east out of our region
temporarily. We may even see temperatures return to average.
Unfortunately, this front is likely to be on the dry side with
limited support from GEFS ensemble members of any measurable
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Strong upper level high will continue to dominate the weather today.
A cold front is forecast to dig south into the eastern plains late
this evening and tonight, resulting in winds shifting into the north
and increasing cloud cover after sunset.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail through the next
18 to 24 hours. There is a 20% to 35% of MVFR CIGS after 09z for the
Nebraska terminals behind the cold front. With relatively low
chances and timing differences, will keep this out of the Nebraska
TAFs for now. Westerly winds will shift into the north behind the
front with another round of gusty winds possible after 06z tonight.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417>423-
     425-427>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...TJT