Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

790
FXUS65 KCYS 311706
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1106 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Westerly downslope winds will keep majority of the forecast
  area dry today with a slight chance for showers in the
  northern portion of Converse and Niobrara county.

- Monday brings another chance for strong to severe
  thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. SPC has a slight
  risk (level 2 of 5) for the eastern portion of Laramie county
  and southern half of the Nebraska Panhandle. Large hail,
  severe wind, and a couple tornadoes look to be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

The upper level low is slowly lifting to the north and ending the
rain shower chances for the night. The 700mb jet is staring to form
as winds are sporadically kicking up to between 45 and 50 mph across
I-80 and I-25. The GFS and RRFS have pushed back the peak winds to
about 09-12z compared to model runs 24 hours ago having the peak
winds start around 03-06z. However, the models still maintain that
the wind gusts will gradually weaken through the afternoon and
evening after 18z. The 00z runs also have the peak strength of the
700mb jet at 55knots which may not be strong enough to achieve our
high wind criteria of 58 mph at the surface. So the rest of the
areas were still left in the high wind watch except for Arlington
which was upgraded to a warning the previous shift. This afternoon a
weak shortwave will pas through the Intermountain west giving a
slight chance for afternoon rain showers in the northern half of
Converse and Niobrara county. Most of the forcing is north of our
forecast area however, some models have a vortmax moving through our
Northern counties as the Upper level spins over the Montana and
Dakotas border. This vortmax may have enough power to create a weak
shower but due to our dry westerly flow no real measurable rainfall
is expected. Temperatures are expected to stay in the 60`s and 70`s
with a couple isolated areas possibly reaching 80. Over night the
temperatures will drop into the 40`s and 50`s keeping us relativity
cool at night.

For Monday, another shortwave pushes into the Intermountain west in
the late morning and early afternoon. The stream of vorticity and
Warm air advection accompanying this wave is expected to go right
through our forecast area. Our winds shift from the our dry westerly
flow to a slightly more moist southerly flow. This stream of
vorticity will take advantage of the slight increase in moisture
over the Intermountain West to produce some thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening. The RAP and the RRFS put about 1,000 to 1,500
joules of CAPE over the southern half of the Nebraska Panhandle and
the eastern edge of Laramie county possibly extending as far west as
Burns, WY. SPC has issued a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for
Severe thunderstorms for the southern panhandle and Laramie county
stopping just short of Cheyenne. Looking at the RRFS UH tracks, the
model favored area extends from the southeastern corner of Goshen
county to Cheyenne county in the Nebraska Panhandle. All hazards
look to be possible as the swath indicates longer lived mesocyclones
capable of producing large hail with tornadoes possible. SPC also
included this same area under their 2 percent TOR forecast. Both the
GFS and RRFS have bulk shear ranging from 30 to 40 knots Monday
afternoon however, the RRFS also ramps up Bulk shear in the evening
to around 60 knots which would likely shred any developing storms
and effectively kill any severe chances. Monday will be interesting
for sure.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

The long term period will begin under broad SW flow aloft and a
ridge axis located to our east over the Central Great Plains, with a
large closed upper-level low situated over Montana. Tuesday will
feature high temperatures of 5-10 degrees above climatology in the
mid-upper 70s along and west of the I-25 corridor with mid-80s
further east mainly across our Nebraska counties. With PWAT values
around the 90th percentile and some weak IVT within the SW flow, can
expect showers and thunderstorms as numerous weak impulses propagate
around the base of the aforementioned closed system to our north.
While the strongest deep-layer shear is expected to remain well to
our north over SE Montana, effective bulk shear around 30 knots will
result in a chance for a few severe thunderstorms, especially east
of the Laramie Range where low-level moisture is expected to be
highest. Although exact details are likely to change, ensemble
guidance has a dryline located somewhere in the vicinity of the
Wyoming/Nebraska border which could also provide a source for
mesoscale forcing for ascent depending on the strength of the
dryline circulation and the magnitude of capping. With the above-
average high temperatures on Monday located upstream of SE Wyoming/W
Nebraska across Western Colorado, SW aloft may advect a strong
elevated mixed layer over our low-level moisture which may limit
shower and thunderstorm coverage to the higher terrain, with lower
elevations remaining capped. This will need to be monitored in short-
term updates to address chances of severe weather on Tuesday.

Wednesday will feature weakening flow aloft as the closed system and
associated belt of strong flow to our north lifts to the north and
east over Canada. There should be enough remaining moisture
underneath the ridge to allow for another round of diurnal showers
and thunderstorms, however with an overall lack of large-scale
forcing, these should be confined to the higher terrain. Weak mean
cloud-layer flow underneath the ridge would also suggest little
storm coverage over lower elevations. High temperatures on Wednesday
will be similar to the day prior.

Heading towards the end of the work week, the longwave ridge
flattens and mid-level flow becomes more zonal. As mid-level heights
rise, we will also see a gradual warming trend along with mostly dry
conditions. Some lingering moisture will allow for daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms, although no widespread precipitation is
anticipated through the end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR will prevail for all terminals throughout the TAF period. Expect
gusty westerly winds up to 40 knots for the Wyoming terminals until
00Z, with the Nebraska terminals seeing gusts up to 30 knots. Winds
will relax into the evening hours down to 10-15 knots before
becoming variable around sunrise. Expect mostly clear skies with a
few high clouds aoa 20k ft with our typical diurnal cumulus
dissipating quickly after sunset.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ106.
     High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for WYZ110.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...NB