Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

648
FXUS65 KCYS 191727
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1127 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions will persist through the end of the week, but
  a weak pressure gradient will promote slightly above normal
  temperatures with winds generally too weak for critical fire
  concerns.

- A return to more active weather will occur over the weekend
  and on Monday as a series of weather disturbances combine with
  adequate low and mid level moisture to produce scattered to
  numerous late day showers and thunderstorms.

- Somewhat drier air will move into the forecast area for
  Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, producing a decrease in
  areal shower and thunderstorm coverage, along with bringing a
  warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Benign weather will continue for today as weak ridging noses in from
the southwest. This will help bring ample sunshine along with
lighter winds, so expect highs this afternoon to soar into the low
to mid 80s with lows Friday night dipping down into the 50s.
Speaking of Friday night, that is when we will start to see some
changes. First thing first, the weak ridge overhead will slide off
to the east, as it does so, a surface a low will strengthen over
east-central Colorado. This will help shift the surface flow to
become southeasterly, which will allow ample moisture at low-mid
levels to advect into eastern portions of our CWA. At the same time,
most of the CWA west of the I-25 corridor will remain dry with a dry
airmass firmly in place.

Lets shift focus to the main event in the short term period,
Saturday. With the aforementioned surface low pumping in moisture,
coupled with an upper-level shortwave sliding across the CWA as the
ridge moves off to the east, these features will help bring in the
potential for severe weather by Saturday afternoon. Taking a look at
a few other severe indices, model guidance is showing Convective
Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values upwards of 2000 J/KG while
Lifted Indices (LI) around -6, combined with a few other favorable
parameters, strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop and
impact portions of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle by
Saturday afternoon. Most of this development should remain east of
the I-25 corridor, with southern portions of the Nebraska Panhandle,
including Sidney, having the greatest threat of severe weather.
Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) introduced a slight
risk (2 of 5) for this area and a marginal risk (1 of 5) for the
remainder of the CWA as mentioned previously. All storm modes are
possible of which may produce tornadoes, large hail, and/or strong
winds, so stay tuned to the forecast for future updates. The other
thing that can`t be over looked, guidance is showing precipitable
water values of an inch or more across eastern Wyoming and the
Nebraska Panhandle, with this much moisture, a very serious threat
of flash flooding is possible. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
has a Marginal Risk (MRGL) for excessive rainfall that could
indicate the high probability of the flash flooding potential across
portions of the Nebraska Panhandle and far eastern Wyoming.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

     No major changes to the long term outside of removing
Saturday to put in the short term and then starting the long
term with Sunday from the previous discussion...

Sunday...While a shortwave trough aloft slides eastward across
the Dakotas and Nebraska in the afternoon, its associated cold
front will bring some heat relief with 700 mb temperatures near
7C suggesting maximum temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s.
Continued adequate low and mid level moisture for scattered late
day showers and thunderstorms, closer to the deeper moisture
east of Interstate 25.

Monday...Looks like a similar setup compared to Saturday, with a
shortwave trough passage in the afternoon, spawning scattered
showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening focused
along a surface trough axis west of the Wyoming-Nebraska state line.
Some strong to severe thunderstorms look likely due to expected
instability and wind shear profiles, mainly for southeast Wyoming
east of I-25. Upslope flow in the low levels will aid lift for storm
generation.

Tuesday...Drier air infiltrates our forecast area under northwest
flow aloft, allowing only isolated to widely scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms, primarily east of I-25.
Temperatures slightly warmer than Monday with 700 mb temperatures
near 11C.

Wednesday...Ridging aloft moves overhead inducing warmer high
temperatures. A surface trough will develop east of I-25, with
convergence along the trough aiding in isolated to widely scattered
late day showers and thunderstorms east of I-25.

Thursday...Typical "beware" northwest flow aloft will prevail, with
decent southeasterly low level winds advecting low level moisture
northwestward across our eastern half of counties, and helping to
spawn scattered showers and thunderstorms focused along a low level
convergence axis. Decent shear and instability suggest possible
isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening east of I-25.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Later this afternoon the winds should switch to the east and
then southwest to south in some place by 06z. By 08z Low clouds
will start to push into the region from KCYS and east through
tomorrow morning. After 18z tomorrow isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible for KCYS and terminals east. Next TAF
period will cover the thunderstorms.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...RUBIN/RZ
AVIATION...MM