Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

594
FXUS65 KCYS 280915
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
315 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of near record warmth and critical fire weather
  conditions is expected to begin today and continue through
  Monday.

- A few high-based virga showers will be possible each evening,
  bringing the potential for gusty and erratic winds and
  isolated lightning.

- A strong cold front arriving Monday night will bring cooler
  temperatures and a chance for rain and snow Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Warm temperatures and critical fire weather remain the primary
concerns of the day today. After one day of near average
temperatures yesterday, the usual programming is resuming today as
the stubborn, powerful ridge of high pressure aloft re-strengthens
over the western CONUS. Rapid warm air advection is already
occurring aloft this morning as the surface high pressure
responsible for the cooler weather retreats to the east. The
nocturnal low-level jet has generally proceeded as expected, and
will gradually weaken over the next few hours, dying down by
mid morning over western Nebraska. Expect westerly winds to mix
down in Wyoming around mid morning as well, supporting rapid
warming. 700-mb temperatures will climb to around +6 to +9C by
midday today, and remain there through Monday evening. For most
of the area, this will hover between the 97.5 and 99.5
percentiles of climatology. Corresponding highs at the surface
are expected to range generally from the 70s to mid 80s with the
higher temperatures in the typical spots of western Nebraska
and the Torrington area. Highs will not vary much from one day
to the next, but we may see slightly cooler highs to the west on
Monday while areas to the east see slightly warmer highs. At
least a couple of daily record highs are expected each of the
next three days, but the monthly record highs set earlier this
month are expected to be safe through this round of warmth.
Widespread warmth will support minimum afternoon relative
humidity between 8 and 15 percent each day. Due to more cloud
cover than the last few warm spells, overnight lows may actually
be a touch warmer. Expect poor overnight RH recoveries,
exacerbating the fire weather conditions.

The other component of the fire weather equation will be the wind.
Look for widespread westerly winds gusting 35 to 50 mph in southeast
Wyoming today. There is lower confidence in the gusty winds reaching
western Nebraska. This will depend on how quickly the surface trough
can push to the east. So, there is high confidence in widespread
critical fire weather conditions in Wyoming, and elevated conditions
in Nebraska. Brief critical conditions could occur in western
Nebraska if winds end up stronger than forecast. For Sunday, expect
westerly winds to spread across the entire area, but overall wind
speeds will be a little lower than today. Look for gusts of 25 to 45
mph across the area, with the stronger gusts in Wyoming as usual.
Monday will see some enhancement of the pressure gradient in advance
of an upper level shortwave trough progressing across the northern
Rockies. Expect the strongest winds of the 3-day warm spell on
Monday, leading to widespread critical fire weather conditions. We
will also need to watch for marginally high winds returning to the
wind prone areas. Current probabilities range from about 30 to 50%.

Lastly, each of the next three days will bring a chance for widely
scattered evening virga showers. While the well-mixed boundary layer
is expected to remain very dry, forecast soundings show decent
moisture moving into the 500 to 200-mb layer. These moisture
intrusions will be associated with weak vorticity maximums
moving through the area just after peak heating each day. A
little boost of synoptic lift from the vort-max combined with
some modest moisture aloft should support the development of
widely scattered shower activity. This will be extremely high-
based and over the top of a parched boundary layer. Therefore,
anything more than a few sprinkles reaching the ground is highly
unlikely. However, there may be enough mass loading to observe
gusty and erratic winds at the surface near this activity.
Instability will be quite limited, but 100-200 J/kg of CAPE each
afternoon could support a handful of isolated dry lightning
strikes. This activity will be possible each evening on
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The extremely persistent blocking ridge responsible for the
exceptionally warm and dry second half of March this year will
finally break down for the last day of the month. As the ridge aloft
shifts east, the door will open to Pacific troughs to move into the
interior west, with access to some moisture. The first of these is
expected to pass to our north on Monday evening. While the upper
level disturbance will pass too far north for much precipitation
here, it will send a strong surface cold front down the eastern side
of the Rockies. This will arrive sometime Monday night through our
area, bringing an abrupt drop in temperatures and a wind shift to
gusty north or northwest winds behind the boundary. This front looks
to be much more well defined than the one that passed through on
Thursday. Decent frontogenesis along the boundary may also support
some rain showers mixing with and changing over to snow.
Precipitation potential Monday night into Tuesday morning looks
fairly limited.

The second phase of this looks a little more interesting. The axis
of the surface ridge looks to move through the area around midday
Tuesday, as the frontal boundary is stuck up against the higher
terrain, struggling to move west of the terrain barrier. Meanwhile,
another shortwave trough will approach the area. This system looks
weaker, but will take a more favorable track across the central
Great Basin and into the central Rockies rather than passing to our
north. Model guidance shows overrunning isentropic lift on top of
the stalled frontal boundary developing Tuesday morning and possibly
continuing into Wednesday morning. Positive theta-e advection should
support the development of some precipitation. Precipitation type is
somewhat uncertain due to marginal 700-mb temperatures between -2C
and 0C, colder surface temperatures and the warm air advection
aloft. Regarding precipitation amounts, this is not expected to be a
drought-busting event by any means, but we will see the highest odds
for a wetting rainfall we have seen in weeks. Probabilities for 0.1"
of liquid precipitation or more are highest along the I-80 corridor,
reaching 50 to 70% between Elk Mountain and Cheyenne, and dropping
off to 30 to 50% around Kimball, Sidney, and Rawlins. Probabilities
range from 20 to 40% north along and north of the North Platte
River, so this event is unlikely to provide much relief to those
areas.

Our area will be between troughs on Thursday, which should allow for
temperatures to climb above average once again, but not up to the
record breaking heights that have been quite common recently.
Thursday will also bring the potential for another round of strong
winds with increasing west to southwest flow aloft in advance
of the next upper level trough.

The next potential system will arrive in the Friday to Saturday
period, but the details regarding this system are still highly
uncertain. LREF ensembles are split nearly exactly 50/50 between two
possible outcomes. The first scenario is supported by the
deterministic GFS, about 75% of GEFS members, and about 30% of ECWMF
ensemble members. This would involve a powerful but very progressive
Pacific trough passing north of our area on Friday. Most
precipitation would fall on Friday, with overall lower totals
expected. Mean QPF in this cluster is generally less than 0.1", but
some locally higher amounts would be possible in the mountains and
along the Pine Ridge. Fairly widespread strong northwest winds could
also be expected. The other scenario, supported by 70% of ECWMF
members and 25% of GEFS members favors a much slower, potentially
closed, upper level low traversing further south. This case would
mean more widespread precipitation, mainly on Saturday, and a much
longer cool down. Mean QPF is around 0.2 to 0.4" along the I-80
corridor (lower amounts further north). This scenario would also
probably be less windy, but gusty north to northwest winds could
still easily kick up behind the departing closed low outside of the
current operational forecast window.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the duration of
this TAF period. The only thing of concern that may impact aviation
operations will be the potential for LLWS at KCYS, KBFF, KCDR, and
KAIA. So, KCYS will be impacted from about 14Z to 17Z Saturday and
the Nebraska Panhandle terminals now through to 10Z tonight.
Otherwise, gusty winds will ramp up across southeast Wyoming by 17Z
into the 25 to 35 knot range while the Nebraska sites will see winds
diminish to 10 knots or less by the afternoon hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT Monday
     for WYZ417>423-425-427>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for
     NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...RZ