Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

504
FXUS65 KCYS 221744
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1144 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures will continue through the end of
  the week, but a weekend system will drop temperatures towards
  near- to below-average temperatures.

- Precipitation is possible this afternoon through Sunday, with
  the potential for frozen precipitation outside of the
  mountains Sunday morning.

- An active week is expected next week with multiple clipper
  systems moving through the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 254 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Mostly quiet again tonight with some mid-level clouds drifting
across much of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. GOES
Nighttime Microphysics show some lower clouds beginning to blanket
wester Nebraska, with limited lower-level coverage across southeast
Wyoming. This cloud bank should help keep portions of western
Nebraska warmer than previously expected. Temperatures are currently
in the mid-40s to low-60s across the region, with Laramie being the
coldest at 45F as of 07Z. Winds are light and variable across
southeast Wyoming and should remain that way for a few more hours. A
low-level jet developed over western Nebraska, so many sites are
windy and gusty.

A more active pattern will begin today and continue through much of
the upcoming work week as an upper-level low over western California
pushes inland towards the Intermountain West. This low should be
positioned over northern Nevada by early Friday morning. The upper-
level ridge that has been keeping the region warmer will be old news
as the upper-level trough pushes eastward. Southwesterly flow aloft
will strengthen and turn more southerly throughout the day today
with a nearly 100kt jet developing overnight tonight. However, the
jet will not be in a favorable location for significant enhancement
of the synoptic ascent, with the right entrance and left exit region
of the jet off to the west. Multiple lobes of 500mb vorticity will
eject to the northeast ahead of the incoming system this afternoon,
increasing the synoptic forcing for western portions of the region,
mainly Carbon and Albany counties west of the Laramie Range. A
diffuse 700mb shortwave trough will move through early this morning,
increasing wind speeds across western Carbon County. Southwesterly
700mb flow will continue this morning before swapping more southerly
later this afternoon. Models have slowed down the arrival of the
700mb, southerly jet across western Carbon County, with this jet not
anticipated to develop until early Friday morning. Despite this,
throughout the day today 700mb temperatures will warm into the 6 to
9C range, leading to surface temperatures warming back into the mid-
60s and mid-70s. As the best forcing pushes northeastward towards
Carbon County, precipitable water values are progged to be above the
maximum percentile for this time of year per the NAEFS. Therefore,
precipitation today, while sparse, should have a decent amount of
water with it for October. Precipitation will remain confined to
west of the Laramie Range, where the best ascent and moisture will
be located due to the southwesterly flow advecting in Pacific
moisture and getting trapped along the Laramie Range. There will be
meager CAPE across this region, so a rumble or two or thunder cannot
be completely ruled out, though widespread storms are not expected.
Overnight lows will drop into the mid-30s for the Sierra Madre and
Snowy Ranges, so precipitation is anticipated to change over to snow
flurries by early Friday morning.

The upper-level low continues to push eastward out of northern
Nevada on Friday, but starts to weaken Friday morning into the early
afternoon. 500mb cyclonic vorticity advection kicks up across Idaho
and western Montana Friday afternoon, leading to split flow with the
northern branch becoming the strongest and the southern branch
remaining weaker. While it does look like the weaker, southern
branch will impact southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, with the
transition into split flow, a strong 250mb jet develops across
Wyoming with portions of the CWA within the left exit region of the
jet. This will increase synoptic forcing for the region, despite the
southern branch remaining weaker than the northern branch. Recent
model runs are pushing the 700mb low further north, remaining over
southern Canada rather than dipping into the northern CONUS. As a
result, strong wind potential has decreased some, but brief period
of elevated winds will be possible for western portions of the CWA.
With the most recent evolution of this system, precipitation chances
would become less widespread than previously forecast, though
precipitable water values still remain maxed out for this time of
year so any shower could be quite heavy. A strong cold front will
accompany this system and will drop 700mb temperatures into the 0 to
4C range by early Saturday morning. With cooling temperatures at
700mb, rain across the Sierra Madre and Snowy ranges should change
over to mostly snow overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Snow
accumulation is not anticipated to be significant, due to the
weakening southern branch of the system. Temperatures will max out
in the upper-50s to low-80s Friday afternoon, with the warmest
temperatures across the western Nebraska Panhandle due to very
strong southerly flow. Overnight lows will be much cooler, thanks to
the cold front, dropping into the mid-30s to low-50s everywhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Upper-level flow on Saturday will remain fairly strong out of the
southwest as the low responsible for the rainier weather marches
eastward across the Four Corners region after elongating southward
on Friday. This low will slowly turn northeastward Saturday night
into early Sunday morning, looking to impact the CWA a second time
on Sunday. 500mb CVA will increase across the upper-level low,
increasing its advection northeastward, while also ejecting multiple
lobes of vorticity into the CWA. 700mb flow will be weaker as the
700mb low over southern Canada move far enough away to not longer
influence the region. Mostly light and variable flow is expected
throughout the day Saturday. Saturday night into early Sunday
morning, 700mb flow turns southeasterly with surface flow flipping
around to the east. The surface low that was progged to develop in
yesterday`s model suite no longer exists, with northerly surface
flow prevailing across eastern Colorado due to the strong cold
front. This will not stop precipitation from developing with
multiple 500mb vorticity maxima moving across the region. The NAEFS
model suggests increased precipitable water values around the 90th
percentile for southeastern portions of the CWA, where the best
forcing looks to set up. A rain/snow mix could develop west of the
Laramie Range with mostly rain and, maybe, a few flurries east of
the Laramie Range. The I-80 Summit may see a prolonged period of
rain and snow due to easterly, upslope flow ongoing through the
afternoon hours. 700mb temperatures cool into the 0 to 2C range
behind the front, leading to a much cooler day across the region
with surface temperatures in the mid-40s to mid-50s. Overnight lows
Saturday night into Sunday morning will drop into the 30s
everywhere, with 700mb temperatures between -2 and 0C. With
precipitation likely continuing into the overnight hours, snow
flurries will be possible for Sunday morning, though significant
accumulation is not expected.

On Sunday, the upper-level low is progged to get absorbed into the
upper-level flow and finally push the upper-level trough through the
Intermountain West by Monday morning. Residual upper-level forcing
will remain across the area as the low moves off to the east,
therefore, keeping precipitation chances possible on Sunday. 700mb
temperatures will remain in the -2 to 0C range throughout the day
Sunday. Easterly flow will continue Sunday due to a secondary,
backdoor cold front moving through the region, favoring upslope
development along and east of the Laramie Range. While 700mb
temperatures will be favorable for snow, rather than rain, daytime
warming may prevent snow from falling with mostly a cold rain and
flurries possible east of the Laramie Range. Once again, significant
snowfall accumulation is not anticipated at this time, though things
may change as this system moves into the shorter-term forecast
periods.

Monday onwards favors an active period of weather with multiple
Albert Clipper systems pushing out of Canada and into the CONUS.
Temperatures will remain cooler throughout the weak, near normal for
this time of year. Temperatures look to start warming Tuesday
through the end of the week, with above average temperatures
possible Tuesday through the end of the week. Multiple rounds of
precipitation will be possible throughout the week, though
confidence is lower in exactly how many places will see the
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Primarily VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. The
exception will be with precipitation across WY TAF sites, with
the most likely drop in VIS happening for KRWL. Rain showers
should overspread both KRWL and KLAR this afternoon and evening,
and may make it as far as KCYS. A rumble of thunder also
possible near KRWL, but probs are low enough that they were left
out of TAF for now. Prevailing CIGs will be generally mid level
at BKN to OVC all sites as clouds build in this afternoon, with
skies lifting and clearing into tomorrow morning. Winds breezy
this afternoon with gusts around 20-25 knots, calming during the
evening and nighttime hours and picking back up tomorrow morning
into the afternoon at 20-30 knots.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...CG