Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

605
FXUS65 KCYS 192345
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
545 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
  into the weekend. Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
  may return to the area as a potent Pacific storm system moves
  into Wyoming Saturday and Saturday night.

- Much cooler temperatures expected to return on Sunday with
  cloudy skies and wetting rainfall expected for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A stormy Saturday is expected across the forecast area with showers
and thunderstorms already appearing on radar early this afternoon. A
potent upper-level closed low moving into Wyoming this afternoon
will be the main driver of storms as it drags a weak surface front
along with it. Ahead of the front, winds will shift more easterly in
the Nebraska panhandle, allowing dewpoints to sustain in the 50s.
Sunshine in the panhandle will help add to the instability, with
model soundings actually showing impressive CAPE values for mid to
late September. MUCAPE values will reach 1200 J/kg with good low-
level shear. As a result, an isolated severe storm or two could be
possible through this evening. Strong winds will likely be the main
hazard, especially with Hi-Res guidance hinting at some bowing
segments later this evening. But severe hail cannot be ruled out as
storms initially start as discrete cells. As with the last few
days, heavy rain and flash flooding are possible with PWATs
above the 90th percentile for NAEFS climatology. Showers and
storms will continue through the better part of the night,
mainly for the Nebraska panhandle.

More of the same can be expected for Sunday. As the upper-level low
tracks into eastern Wyoming, the surface low will follow with it.
Models still are waffling back and forth with placement of the
surface low, which will ultimately have an impact on which locations
see more or less precipitation. Regardless, areas east of the
Laramie Range and the Nebraska panhandle are most likely to see
precipitation tomorrow. Storms could start as early as mid-morning,
with strong to marginally severe storms possible in the Nebraska
panhandle. The environment here will be able to hang on to
instability throughout the night, so strong winds and hail will be
possible. A stationary frontal boundary roughly along the
Wyoming/Nebraska border will begin to pop off storms from converging
winds on either side of the front during the morning hours. By the
afternoon, the area will get in on some wrap around moisture, so
scattered showers and storm will persist into the evening hours, but
will be less intense and less numerous than the morning storms.
PWATs will remain high in the morning, so heavy rain and flash
flooding potential will be greatest before noon. A few showers could
linger into the overnight hours, but should not cause any
impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The long term forecast is a little messy. The upper
level low that gave us rain showers this weekend is expected to be
pushing into the Northern Plains/Midwest by Monday. This will cause
an area of high pressure to reside over the Intermountain West
eventually building into more of a negatively canted ridge. Theres
is also an area of high pressure that begins to form over the Great
Lakes region as our former low pressure system enters the Northern
plains causing a traffic jam over the east coast. This becomes our
problem as the ridge builds over us it blocks the weak low pressure
system off the west coast. Temperatures will start to climb at the
700mb level raising the temperature from 6C back to 12C thus raising
our cool fall-like surface temps back into the more summer-ish 70`s
and 80`s. This upper level low is depicted to sit and spin sending a
little bit of moisture and some weak shortwaves through Wednesday
night for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers in
the afternoon and evenings, but with the weak ridge and drier
airmass moving over us this week. Don`t expect to have strong
thunderstorm or scattered heavy rainfall chances. By Thursday, the
Intermountain west really locks into a dry southwest flow pulling
dry area from the desert of California and Arizona.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A mix of flight categories expected through the TAF period. VFR
to MVFR conditions possible through this evening due to passing
showers and thunderstorms most sites. Overnight into tomorrow
morning, low stratus will overtake all Nebraska Panhandle sites,
with IFR to LIFR conditions expected. CIGs should lift into the
afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances as mentioned through
this evening, with chances of rain possible through the night,
and likely again along with developing thunderstorms tomorrow
morning into the afternoon. Winds will be variable, erratic, and
gusty near any showers or storms, but overall flow otherwise
will lessen to 10 knots or less overnight with northwesterly to
northerly winds tomorrow morning into the afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...CG