Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

115
FXUS65 KCYS 121124
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
524 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A widespread, locally damaging wind event is still on track
  for Thursday with gusts of 60 to 80 mph expected, with the
  potential for localized gusts up to 100 mph in the wind prone
  areas across southeast Wyoming. High Wind Warnings are in
  effect.

- Very strong winds will continue through at least Saturday
  ahead of the next chance for precipitation Saturday into
  Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 318 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The short term forecast remains on track with Thursday marking the
start of a prolonged high wind event, with the strongest winds also
expected Thursday. High Wind Warnings are in place for most of the
CWA, with the exception of the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges as well
as southwest Carbon County. Several zones across southeast Wyoming
have already verified early this morning. Confidence remains high in
this being a widespread and impactful high wind event. The powerful
upper-level jet in the vicinity of the CWA will contribute to the
strong winds, but a strong MSLP gradient will also add to the
intensity. One of the most impressive parameters continues to be the
CAG to CPR height gradients. Both the 850 and 700 mb height
gradients will max out over 100 meters Thursday morning, which is
some of the highest values seen in recent memory. Values like these
will lead to an unprecedented high wind event. Unsurprisingly,
these hefty gradients will lead to exceptionally strong winds
aloft. The GFS has consistently shown 700 mb winds over 80 kts
for the last few days, with the most recent 00Z run of the GFS
showing 90 kt winds over the Bordeaux area. Remarkably strong
subsidence will also be present over the typical wind prones
that also extend into the Interstate 25 corridor. Combined with
a textbook mountain wave signature, these winds should have no
problem making it down to the surface. Strongest wind gusts are
expected in the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming. 80 to 90
MPH gusts are likely in the Arlington, Bordeaux, Coleman, and
South Laramie Range and foothills areas. Cannot rule out
occasional gusts to 100 MPH in these areas as well as the North
Laramie Range. Outside of the wind prones, 80 MPH wind gusts
will be possible in much of southeast Wyoming. Wind gusts in
excess of 70 MPH will also be likely in the Nebraska panhandle.
With winds this strong, damage is possible to structures as well
as blowovers of high profile vehicles. Winds will ease Thursday
evening as a cold front moves across the area. Winds will turn
out of the north, effectively shutting off high winds in far
eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle. Areas along the
Interstate 25 corridor and westward will not be as lucky as the
front gets caught along the Laramie Range. High winds will
likely continue in these areas, but will be weaker than winds
during the day Thursday.

High winds will continue into Friday and Saturday for the southeast
Wyoming wind prones and adjacent areas. Gradients will stay steep
through Saturday with winds aloft consistently staying above 65 kts.
Subsidence also remains strong, helping these winds get down to the
surface. Although 90 MPH wind gusts will be less likely, cannot rule
out 80 MPH gusts in the wind prones and 70 MPH gusts in the wind
prone adjacent areas. High Wind Warnings for these areas remain in
place through Saturday evening. Winds will eventually weaken once a
strong cold front moves across the area Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The long term starts off active as a system drops through the
region and clears out the strong winds we`ve been seeing, but
also brings cold temperatures alongside chances of precipitation.
Thereafter high pressure ridging comes right back in, bringing
temperatures up from below average right back to well above
average with winds on the rise and critical fire weather
conditions possible as well.

As mentioned, Saturday night into Sunday we`ll see a stout
trough and very strong cold front dive across the region. With
QPF totals on the rise from previous runs, it`s becoming likely
we`ll see area wide precipitation that will start off as rain or
a mix of rain and snow outside of the mountains before
transitioning fully to snow by early Sunday morning and
continuing into the day. And with widespread highs in the 30`s
across the area from the surge of cold air, it`s more likely
than not that this will remain snowfall through moving out of
the region by the early afternoon and into the evening Sunday
night. But don`t expect the cold to stick around for long, as
high pressure will be right back to warm us up with highs
already into the 40`s and 50`s by Monday, and widespread 60`s
and 70`s expected by Tuesday under a very strong and slow moving
Western US high. In fact, temperatures are expected to flirt
with record highs across the area just beyond the long term next
Wednesday, so prepare for more record setting warmth in the
future. Meanwhile, we should continue to see the usual breezy
winds for the region, with in-house guidance picking up on
chances for High Wind Warning (58+ mph) level criteria for the
usual wind prone locations (Bordeaux, Arlington), with
probabilities up to 60-75% already for Tuesday. But alongside
the warmth and winds comes Red Flag concerns, and RH values will
be approaching the teens by Tuesday, with even lower values
just beyond the long term. Look for winds and a critical fire
weather environment to be our main concerns by the end of the
forecast period, so the usual for this winter and early spring.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The main aviation concern today will be strong wind gusts at all
terminals. Gusts over 50 kts are expected, with terminals in
southeast Wyoming potentially gusting over 60 kts at times.
LLWS will be a concern throughout the day with very strong winds
aloft. The strong winds could also lead to areas of blowing
dust which will reduce visibility. Winds will weaken after
sunset, mainly in the Nebraska panhandle as a cold front turns
winds out of the north.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT Saturday night for WYZ101-
     103>107-109-110-113-115>118.
     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for WYZ102-108-
     119.
NE...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...SF