Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

192
FXUS65 KCYS 011739
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1039 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quieter weather through the evening hours before precipitation
  chances return starting over the mountains.

- Widespread snowfall possible Monday into Tuesday and early Wednesday
  morning.

- Next impactful system expected to arrive late Wednesday night
  through the end of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 142 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

One day of quiet weather is expected today before precipitation
chances ramp back up as the next winter system moves through the
region to start the week. For Sunday, upper-level ridging remains in
place throughout most of the day, but the ridge begins to weaken as
an upper-level trough moves into the western CONUS starting late
Sunday night into early Monday morning. As a result, upper-level
winds will shift from northwesterly during the morning and afternoon
hours to westerly starting in the overnight hours and continuing
through the early morning hours Monday. A subtle 500mb shortwave is
traversing across southern portions of the CWA at this time, leading
to the increasing cloud cover overhead and mountain snowfall chances
as 500mb cyclonic vorticity advection pushes over the mountains.
Additionally, a weak 700mb shortwave is passing through the region
now through about mid-morning, further supporting increasing
synoptic forcing and precipitation chances. Elevated 700mb winds
this morning could lead to some breezy conditions across the
Panhandle with gusts up to 40mph possible throughout the overnight
hours, but likely dying off come sunrise. The next band of 500mb
vorticity move southwest to Northwest across the CWA starting this
evening as well as another diffuse 700mb shortwave. This will keep
mountain snowfall ongoing and likely increasing precipitation
chances in the lower elevations, though mostly along and west of the
Laramie Range. Significant snowfall accumulation is not anticipated
with this event, but the mountains could pick up a quick 2 to 6
inches of snowfall throughout the day, while the lower elevations
may see a few hundredths of precipitation, likely rainfall due to
warm 700mb temperatures and surface temperatures in the  50s and 60s
today. The best event looks to start impacting the region to start
the week, as that upper-level trough moves closer to the CWA.

For Monday, the upper-level ridge will weaken significantly and be
pushed off to the east by the approaching upper-level trough. This
upper-level trough will be the next significant weather producer for
the region, likely resulting in accumulating snowfall for many
locations. The region will be under the influence of the left exit
region of the upper-level jet starting early Monday morning and
continuing through most of the day as the trough pushes further
east. This is a favorable location for synoptically-driven ascent
across the region. Additionally, the southwesterly flow aloft and
through much of the atmosphere will help advect in additional
Pacific Moisture, with the NAEFS Mean Integrated Water Vapor
Transport suggesting IVT values above the 90th percentile for much
of the are. Precipitable Water values are also progged to be in the
99th percentile and higher throughout the day Monday. As a result,
ample moisture will be in place to get precipitation, especially
with the help of synoptic lift. Additionally, further down at 700mb
a low will start to develop over southeastern Idaho, northeastern
Utah, and wester Wyoming, leading to enhanced southwesterly flow
across the region. This continues to advect Pacific Moisture into
the region, especially across the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges.
With upslope flow ongoing at the surface and 700mb, as well as 700mb
warm air advection, the mountains, especially the Sierra Madres, are
expected to receive significant precipitation Monday. Precipitation
should be primarily snow across the mountains for Monday, but likely
rain in the lower elevations with temperatures in the 50s and 60s
once more. A cold front pushes through Monday night into Tuesday
morning, dropping 700mb temperatures to the -5 to -3C range, a
favorable range for snowfall everywhere.

The upper-level trough will push through the region Tuesday, finally
exiting to the east into the overnight hours Tuesday. Ample synoptic
forcing will be present as the trough moves through, along with the
ample 500mb vorticity associated with it. 700mb temperatures will
remain around the -6 to -4C range all day Tuesday, leading to all
precipitation likely to be snow across the region. Light
accumulations are possible outside of the mountains, while heavier
accumulations are likely in the mountains. The mountains look to
receive another 6 to 12 inches of snow late Monday night through
early Tuesday morning, with lower elevations remaining in the trace
to 2 inches range, through Wednesday morning. Snow begins to taper
off early Wednesday morning into the mid-morning hours as the upper-
level trough pushes off to the east of the CWA and northerly upper-
level flow returns once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Looking mid-week and beyond, Wednesday will likely be the only dry
and quiet day of the week. Snow comes to an end early Wednesday
morning, with clearing skies expected behind the departing upper-
level trough and ridge building over the region. Temperatures will
warm nicely on Wednesday, though may be stunted depending on the
exact amount of snowfall received, as well as how much of it sticks.
Thursday will bring the next upper-level trough through the region,
with ample synoptic forcing for another round of precipitation
across the region. The 700mb low associated with this incoming
trough looks to be positioned a litter further to the north per the
GFS and directly overhead per the ECMWF. Both long range models
suggest a strong cold front pushing through Thursday, though the
ECMWF lags behind the GFS by almost 24 hours with bringing the front
through the region. Therefore, Thursday`s temperatures forecast is
low confidence at this time, due to significant differences in
frontal passage in longer range models. Despite this, the cold front
should be strong enough to bring another round of beneficial
precipitation to the entire CWA. Given very cold 700mb temperatures
expected behind the front, any rain falling on Thursday should very
quickly transfer over the snow and continue through potentially
early Saturday morning. This event is several days out at this time,
but it will be something to watch as this first system pushes
through the region. Cooler temperatures expected to end the week
before a warming trend returns for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1040 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Winds are going to be calmer throughout the TAF period compared
to the last couple of days. There is some precipitation chances
tonight for KRWL and KLAR but its unclear if precip will reach
the ground. The next stronger wave will start around 10z for
KRWL and KLAR. There is more confidence these showers will reach
the ground. Under these showers there is a chance ceilings will
drop to 2,000 to 3,000ft. Through the morning the showers look
to move through almost every TAF site with the exception of CYS
and SNY which may get VCSH instead.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MM