Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

708
FXUS65 KCYS 242330
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
430 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of strong gusty winds will continue through late
  Wednesday evening, with periods of very windy conditions
  continuing through Friday. High Wind Warnings are currently in
  effect for most of southeast Wyoming and portions of the
  southern Nebraska Panhandle.

- Elevated fire weather concerns expected through the end of the
  week, mainly in the southern Nebraska panhandle.

- Mountain snowfall, with some rain/snow mix across the lower
  elevations, expected late Tuesday and into Wednesday. 8 to 16
  inches of snow possible across the mountains. Winter Weather
  Advisories are in effect for the higher mountains through
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Forecast remains mostly on track this afternoon with high winds in
full effect across most zones in a High Wind Warning. Strongest wind
gusts so far have been 81 MPH in the South Laramie Range and
Foothills. Most other gusts have been in the 60s with a few 70s
sprinkled in there. Most zones in a High Wind Warning today have
verified, with the exception of northern Carbon and Albany Counties,
although winds have been consistently gusting in the 50s here.
High winds will continue through the afternoon as a weak
boundary moves south across the forecast area. MSLP and 700 mb
height gradients will stay compressed, allowing winds aloft to
stay around 55 kts into the overnight hours. Subsidence will
weaken a bit overnight, which will likely lead to a break in
high winds for zones outside of the wind prones. Subsidence will
still be strong over the wind prones, so places like Arlington
and the South Laramie Range and Foothills will likely still see
gusts over 60 MPH tonight.

Besides the wind, this boundary will also bring some precipitation
to the area. Webcam observations show some rain and snow showers
around the Arlington area and SNOTELs in the mountains indicate snow
has just started recently in the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges. Snow
is expected to continue in the mountains overnight with heavy snow
possible at times. Models keep showing a rather sharp cut off in
snow accumulation at around 9000 feet. Above this, 8 to 16 inches
could be possible, while below this could see only a few inches of
snow. Currently, Winter Weather Advisories are in place for the
mountains through Wednesday afternoon, however this will have to be
closely watched in case an upgrade to a Warning is necessary. The
NBM remains an outlier in QPF amounts with this system, showing
almost double the amount other models are showing, leading to a few
feet of snow above 10000 feet in the mountains. Most models are
closer to an inch of QPF in the mountains, leading to totals much
lower than this. Trended snow totals closer to the lower QPF models,
so the current Advisory looked on track. Will also have to keep an
eye on the Arlington area as a few inches of snow accumulation is
not out of the question which could make travel difficult when
combined with the strong winds.

High winds will continue into the day Wednesday ahead of an incoming
front. As previously mentioned strong gradients will drive
strengthening winds aloft. 700 mb winds will peak around 70 kts with
very strong subsidence and mountain wave activity to bring these
winds down to the surface. Given the wind gusts today, decided to
upgrade the remaining High Wind Watches in the Nebraska panhandle to
Warnings. Widespread gusts of 60 MPH are expected across the Warning
area with the strongest wind gusts once again expected in the
typical wind prone areas. The frontal passage is expected sometime
during the evening hours. This will likely turn the winds off for
most locations as winds turn more northwesterly. Unfortunately,
models are now hinting that high winds in the wind prones will
likely continue through at least Wednesday night, so extensions
to these Warnings may be necessary. Besides wind, the front
could have some precipitation with it. Given the warm
temperatures and time of day, most precipitation will fall as
rain and be through the area by the evening.

A return to drier and potentially less windy conditions is
expected Thursday. Temperatures behind the front will be
slightly cooler than Wednesday, but highs will still be above
average in the 40s and 50s. Some lingering high winds could
still be possible in the wind prones during the day, however it
appears the GFS has started to back off on strong winds aloft. A
few lingering mountain snow showers could be possible Thursday
morning, but overall the trend will be towards drier weather as
the ridge over the west coast strengthens.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Mild conditions will prevail into the weekend as we remain
downstream of a longwave ridge, placing us in a NW flow regime.
Friday will be the windiest day of the period, especially for the
wind-prone areas of Bordeaux and Arlington as model cross-sections
indicate 40-50 knot cross-barrier flow at mountain-top in the
presence of 50-60 knots at 700 mb. Temperatures will again remain
well-above average, with locations east of the Laramie Range
approaching 60 degrees. Our Nebraska counties will likely soar into
the mid 60s which isn`t quite record territory, but it is about 20
degrees above climatology. Fire conditions will have to be monitored
closely given progged sustained wind speeds of 25-30 knots, NBM mean
minimum RH values around 15%, warm temperatures, and dry fuels.
Friday is certainly a day to be extra cautious when planning outdoor
activities.

Moving onto Saturday and Sunday, breezy and mild conditions will
continue, although the wind won`t be nearly as impressive as Friday.
Later on the in weekend, we will be placed in the right-exit region
of a 110 knot 250 mb jet as well as downstream of a subtle shortwave
trough, which will bring chances for some beneficial precipitation
mainly for our mountain ranges in the western portion of our CWA.
Precipitation amounts don`t look impressive at this time, especially
for locations east of the I-25 corridor, but the Snowy and Sierra
Madre Ranges could pick up a quarter of an inch of QPF based on
ensemble guidance. More specifics will be discussed in the next few
days.

Another shortwave trough embedded in a zonal flow regime will
propagate across our CWA on Monday, however forcing for ascent
appears to be rather weak and short-lived, so any precipitation is
expected to be light. Tuesday, we remain in a split-flow pattern
with above-average 500 mb heights over our area, resulting in
temperatures continuing to be above normal. Heading into the middle
of the week, guidance is hinting at a closed low located over
California ejecting off to the north and east, which will be
something to monitor and discuss in future forecasts, although
confidence in this scenario producing meaningful precipitation for
our CWA is minimal at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 430 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Very gusty winds, between 35 and 50 knots, will continue to plague
southeast Wyoming terminals throughout this TAF period with LLWS
possible for KLAR and KCYS. Nebraska terminals, as a whole, will
diminish this evening to less than 15 knots. However, winds will
pick back up starting around 12Z for KSNY then the remaining sites
by 17Z with gusts 25-45 knots. Precipitation wise, -RA remains
possible for KRWL, KLAR, and KCYS with -SN possibly mixing in at
times at KRWL and KLAR. VIS shouldn`t dip below 3SM, but CIGs may
drop to around 3K feet at KRWL and KLAR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ104-105-107-
     109-110-115-118.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ106-116-117.
     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ108-119.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ112-
     114.
     High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ113.
NE...High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for NEZ019-
     055.
     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for NEZ020-
     054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RZ