Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

302
FXUS65 KCYS 142035
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
235 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of southeast
  Wyoming and western Nebraska from noon to 9 PM on Monday.

- Fire weather concerns continue Tuesday through at least
  Friday, with dry, breezy conditions and very warm
  temperatures. Minimal precipitation expected during this time.
  A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Tuesday afternoon
  through Wednesday evening.

- A high wind event is looking increasingly likely for Tuesday
  evening into Wednesday for the wind prone regions of
  southeast Wyoming.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Clouds and patchy fog continue to persist east of the Laramie Range
this afternoon, leading to a cool day in the wake up yesterday`s
cold front. Temperatures are currently only sitting in the 50s and
60s and are not expected to get much warmer as the afternoon
progresses. While the clouds remain, cannot rule out some light
showers and sprinkles as observed this morning. Any precipitation
that falls will likely be negligible since model soundings show a
shallow saturated layer. Clouds will slowly dissipate through the
afternoon, eventually becoming mostly clear later in the evening.

A return to warmer temperatures and drier conditions is expected for
Monday. With strong upper-level ridging dominating the west coast,
some of that continental tropical airmass will start to spill over
into the Rockies. 700 mb temperatures will return to around
+10C, leading to average highs in the 70s and 80s. Mid-level
relative humidity will also drop to about 30 percent, leading to
a mostly sunny day across the forecast area. The CWA will sit
at the western periphery of a 250 mb jet during the day Monday,
leading to gusty conditions. The warmer, drier, and windier
conditions will lead to critical fire weather across much of the
Nebraska panhandle and eastern Wyoming. As a result, the Fire
Weather Watch in place has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
as surface relative humidity will fall to about 15 percent with
30 MPH wind gusts. The Red Flag Warning will continue through
Monday evening. Humidity recoveries Monday night will be fairly
good due to increased cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Tuesday morning starts off in Northwest flow on the
front side of the Ridge. The clouds from Monday`s shortwave should
be clearing out during the as subsident and partial downsloping flow
start to take over the Intermountain West. Depending on how fast we
clear the clouds will result in potential Red Flag conditions in the
afternoon and evening. Min RH is progged in the teens with an
overnight recovery in the 30`s and 40`s. A 700mb jet will start to
ramp up Tuesday night to around 50 to 60 knots as an upper level
trough gets pushed into the Intermountain West and the Central CONUS
area. This trough is attached to the parent low spinning over the
Hudson bay that retrogrades slightly to the west and south
tightening the pressure gradient over the Rockies. High winds may be
possible over the I-80 corridor near the Arlington area with peak
winds between 12-18z Wednesday morning. A high wind watch may be
needed but we will wait until Monday to decide the headline
decisions as High winds are typically uncommon for us in the summer,
but it will definitely be windy. As the upper level trough peels off
to the east our Northern counties from Niobrara to Dawes county in
the Nebraska Panhandle looks likely to experience borderline high
winds in the afternoon on top of elevated to critical Fire weather
conditions. A fire weather watch was put out from 18z Tuesday to 02z
Thursday (Wednesday Evening) to highlight these dangerous
conditions. Wednesday afternoon to Wednesday evening another cold
front is progged to push through our region. While the parent low
moves across the Northern plains to our north. Some moisture may be
accompanying the cold front effectively ending the critical to near
critical conditions that evening. While the front may not produce
any showers there looks to be enough moisture to potential allowing
overnight recoveries to reach 60 percent and above for most of the
area. Friday may have fire weather conditions but there is another
system that may impact our region sometime Friday evening and
through the weekend. So far the global models are hinting at finally
getting some rain but we shall see how the models trend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The mid to low clouds are following an upper level trough that
is dragging further south than models have indicated. However,
by this afternoon every terminal should be VFR as the low clouds
should be further south out of our CWA. Clouds upstream are
between 3,600ft and 6,000ft for the majority of the observations
sites. So this afternoon to evening we should see those move
through our area then eventually clearing out by tomorrow
morning. Winds will likely go variable overnight before
eventually becoming westerly then eventually Northwesterly
around 15-18z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ417-418-
     432-433.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for WYZ417-418-430>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for NEZ434>437.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MM