Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

967
FXUS65 KCYS 202325
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of southeast Wyoming
  and the Nebraska panhandle. Critical fire weather conditions
  expected.

- Record warmth will continue this afternoon through Saturday.

- Cooler, though still above average, temperatures return Sunday
  behind a cold front. Isolated to widely scattered
  precipitation chances expected with this frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Water Vapor imagery show a relatively dry airmass centered over the
desert southwest dominating the weather the Southern portion of the
West coast and the central Rocky mountain area. THe 500mb jetstream
is to our north pushing moisture through the Pacific Northwest,
Montana, and the Northern Plains. The 700mb jet will be at a calmer
35 to 45 knots leading to a light breezy wind for the Southeast
Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle area through Saturday evening. As
this upper level ridge every so slowly drifts to the east it will
advect more dry air and warmer temperatures into the region through
Saturday afternoon. This will result in temperatures in the 80`s and
possibly 90`s east of I-25 and temperatures in the mid 70`s for the
higher elevations west of I-25. No changes to the current red flag
warning were made and is still set to expire Saturday evening. A
cold front is set to impact the Intermountain west Saturday night
into Sunday morning. While this cold front is set to bring in more
moisture to the region allowing RH values to reach out Red Flag
criteria for the eastern portion of the forecast area. There`s not a
whole lot of opportunity for precipitation with this frontal
passage. Most of the forcing is kept in northeast Wyoming and South
Dakota, however some models do develop some showers as far south as
Platte and Goshen County. Looking at the Model soundings, most of
the high-res models keep the boundary layer rather dry with some
saturation pushing as far south as Scottsbluff. I kept low pops over
the areas I was most confident in which was the northern half of our
Northern counties to which the forcing and saturation was closest to
lining up Saturday Night into Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

The cold front that passed through our area overnight should be on
its way out by day break Sunday. In its wake temperatures should
start off about 10 degrees cooler than the previous morning and make
their way to the upper 50s to low 60s by the afternoon. This still
leaves us about 5 degrees warmer than average for this time of year.
Winds will be relatively light out of the northeast for points east
of I-25 and out of the west/northwest for point west of the Laramie
Ranges. Winds will turn from the south with the subtle return flow
on the backside of the parting surface high pressure and cold front.
Some areas of drizzle may materialize in the early morning hours of
Sunday, particularly to the north in Converse and Niobrara Counties.
Then perhaps again later in the day, near sunset, over the inner
mountain ranges.

This reprieve from the warm pattern will be brief however, as the
upper level ridge re-strengthens and its influence spreads back over
our region beginning Monday. Dry air will start advecting east in
from the Intermountain West and desert regions, along with
substantial surface mixing during the day, will send relative
humidity values back down into the teens. This is despite overcast
conditions most of Monday and Tuesday. Overnight humidity recoveries
are poor with how dry the surface has been, only reaching 40 to 50%
values. Daily maximum temperature records are likely to break again
on Wednesday as highs soar into the 80s and possibly 90s over the
plains regions. Another concern is the arrival of stronger 700mb
flow influenced by several embedded shortwaves that tighten the
pressure gradients Tuesday and Wednesday. Internal machine learning
guidance highlights elevated probabilities of 40 to 50% that our
wind prones reach high wind criteria. These conditions do point
towards elevated fire weather concerns, particularly Wednesday.

Overnight Wednesday a cold front passage is being advertised in the
guidance. An upper level trough riding along the US/Canadian boarder
will push the ridge back south and east out of our region
temporarily. We may even see temperatures return to average.
Unfortunately, this front is likely to be on the dry side with
limited support from GEFS ensemble members of any measurable
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

VFR conditions will continue to dominate across all terminals for
the duration of this TAF period under the influence of high
pressure. Gusty west winds up to 30 knots will diminish this
afternoon/evening to less than 10 knots across all terminals. A
slight uptick Saturday morning across the southeast Wyoming
sites with gusty west winds up to 30-40 knots. While winds
across the Nebraska Panhandle will remain generally less than 30
knots.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Saturday for WYZ417>423-425-
     427>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Saturday for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...RZ