Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

601
FXUS65 KCYS 052325
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue
  through the work week.

- Fire weather will be a concern, alongside a chance at record
  high temperatures both today and Tuesday.

- A pattern change is increasingly likely beginning around
  Sunday into early next week, but the details remain uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A toasty day is in store for us across SE Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle, as record-breaking warmth is expected across our area
underneath broad longwave ridging over the western half of the
country. Although the ridge dampens throughout the day, 700 mb
temperatures are progged to exceed the 99th percentile relative to
climatology resulting in high temperatures expected to reach the mid
to upper 80s east of the I-25 corridor, with a few 90 degree
readings possible across Western Nebraska. As it stands, HREF
guidance has a 50th percentile high temperature of 83F in Cheyenne,
which would break the previous record high of 82F set way back in
1947. While stations such as Scottsbluff and Chadron are likely to
fall just short of record territory (daily records are in the low to
mid 90s), these locations are still expected to see high
temperatures averaging 15-20 degrees above climatology.

Aside from the heat, the main concern today will be fire weather
conditions, as a lee trough establishes itself across the region,
which will result in an uptick in gradient flow and our winds. As
minimum RH values are anticipated to range from 10-15% east of the
Laramie Range combined with peak gusts of 20-30 mph and plenty of
dry fuels, outdoor burning is not recommended today, hence the
issuance of a Red Flag Warning until 6 PM today. Further, rather
poor overnight recoveries of only 35-40% are expected, which may
continue any fire weather concerns into tomorrow as we remain in an
anomalously hot and dry pattern.

The longwave ridge bringing us these unseasonably warm temperatures
will continue to weaken into tomorrow, however with NAEFS guidance
showing 500 mb geopotential height still exceeding the 90th
percentile, well above-average high temperatures are expected again.
Regardless of whether or not more temperature records are broken
tomorrow (Laramie and Rawlins are forecast to exceed the daily
record, with Cheyenne tying), we can still expect to see
temperatures range from 15 to 20 degrees above average, with low to
mid 80s east of the I-25 corridor and mid 70s to the west. Median RH
values tomorrow afternoon are in the 15-20% range, however winds
will be weaker than today resulting in a more marginal fire weather
setup, hence allowing the Red Flag Warning to expire this evening
with the possibility of another issuance for tomorrow during the day
depending on trends this afternoon and evening. Tomorrow night will
remain dry, though slightly cooler given the decrease in winds
allowing for more effective radiative cooling. It may seem hard to
believe, but our average overnight low in Cheyenne tomorrow is in
the upper 30s, and we likely won`t dip below 45F. The trend of above-
average temperatures will continue through the rest of the work
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

High confidence in warm and dry weather continues through Saturday,
but a major pattern change is increasingly likely beginning around
Sunday.

Broad ridging will continue to dominate the western US through the
end of the week. Ensembles are in pretty good agreement showing the
strength of the ridge moderating just slightly on Wednesday and
Thursday, so forecast highs will be just a few degrees cooler
than today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be closest to records
again at Laramie and Rawlins, as the core of the ridge will
remain to our west. While humidity will remain low and lead to
elevated fire weather conditions, winds are expected to remain
light through this period. Therefore, critical fire weather
conditions are unlikely. The ridge will start to amplify again
on Friday into Saturday as its axis shifts rapidly eastward
towards the central CONUS. 700-mb temperatures will remain
around the climatological 90th percentile for this period. With
the ridge moving east, flow aloft will turn more to the
southwest, opening the door to increased wind speeds especially
in Carbon, Albany, and Converse counties. While high winds are
unlikely (10-20% chance) this may increase fire weather concerns
for Friday and Saturday. In addition, a few ensemble members
show some disorganized vorticity meandering through our area
under the ridge during this period. Combined with the southwest
flow increasing mid to upper level moisture, we may see isolated
high- based showers returning to the forecast by the end of the
week. Current chances for measurable precipitation remain slim.


Major changes are increasingly likely beginning around Sunday. While
confidence is high that something will change, there is low
confidence in what the new weather pattern will look like. Ensembles
are unanimously showing some type of powerful Pacific trough
approaching the area Sunday or Monday, but are in very poor
agreement on exactly how this moves through the area. The LREF suite
is split nearly 50-50 into two clusters. In one cluster, the Pacific
trough moves through more quickly, and as an open wave. This would
lead to a dramatic cool down on Sunday or Monday with higher chances
for widespread freezing temperatures. Overall QPF expectations
are lower in this scenario (widespread 0.1 to 0.4"), but the
chance for snow falling in more populated areas would be higher.
The other cluster of ensembles depicts the upper level low
diving further south and closing off over the western US. The
storm moves through much more slowly, leading to significantly
warmer temperatures Sunday and Monday and a delayed cool down
after the end of the operational forecast period. In this
scenario, overall QPF expectations look considerably higher
(widespread 0.4 to 0.8", but the chance for snow would be lower
due to warmer temperatures when precipitation is falling. One
other interesting tidbit is that ECMWF AIFS and GEFS AI members
tend to strongly prefer the faster, drier, and colder former
scenario. This will be an interesting event to watch for the
performance of these relatively new guidance tools.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all the terminals for the
duration of this TAF period. Breezy winds at the Wyoming sites will
wind down around sunset to generally less than 10 knots. Overall,
expect light and variable winds across all terminals for the
overnight hours into Tuesday morning.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ418>422-
     427-430-432.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...RZ