Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

071
FXUS65 KCYS 231728
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1128 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms today, mainly
  further south near the Colorado border and western Nebraska.
  Brief strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall expected
  with this activity into this evening.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through
  the end of the week with slightly above average temperature
  expected until Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 155 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Current KCYS radar loop shows remnant convective activity
weakening early this morning across western Nebraska as the low
to midlevels stabilize for the rest of tonight. Will need to
monitor the potential for fog with weak south winds and near
saturated conditions near the surface. Otherwise, still getting
some brief wind gusts of 45 to 55 MPH with the left over
convection, but that should end shortly. Disturbance aloft,
which aided in most of the convection initiation on Saturday,
will continue to push east early this morning and eventually
into central and eastern Nebraska by sunrise. With slightly
drier and more stable air behind this shortwave disturbance,
expect coverage of showers and thunderstorms to be considerably
less today. Expect dewpoint to fall into the upper 30s and 40s
along and west of the I-25 corridor, possibly as far east as far
western Nebraska. No notable forcing today as the flatten ridge
amplifies slightly this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms expected today, but mainly further south along
and near the I-80 corridor. Increased POP a bit across western
Nebraska with the surface moisture remaining in place. There is
more shear across this region as well, so can`t rule out a few
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. Coverage of severe
thunderstorms will be limited, just like on Saturday. Otherwise,
surface winds are expected to increase out of the west with
gusts of 30 to 45 MPH possible, especially across southeast
Wyoming near the wind prone areas and west of the I-25 corridor.

For Monday, similar convective environment compared to Sunday
but with more midlevel forcing and a bit more low level
convergence near the Laramie Range. These factors will help
convection initiation which high resolution models all show
into the mid to late afternoon and through the evening hours.
Increased POP between 25 to 40 percent, especially further south
along the Interstate 80 corridor and the mountains. As we head
into the evening hours, expect enhanced moisture advection and
convergence near the surface as surface winds shift into the
east across the eastern plains. With inverted V soundings for
much of the day, expect any thunderstorms to produce gusty winds
into the evening hours. SPC introduced a Marginal Risk of
strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly for strong outflow winds.
Remaining very warm or hot during the day with highs in the mid
80s (west) to mid 90s east of the Interstate 25 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Moving into the work week we`ll start off on the hot side with a
high pressure ridge firmly in control of the Western US. While
temperatures will cool just a couple of degrees compared to
Sunday, highs still sit warmer than average by around 5-8
degrees. A cold front will be approaching the region with
another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on tap
including locally stronger to weakly severe activity possible.
By Tuesday though a backdoor cold front will offer very meager
respite as highs drop by around 2-6 degrees, closer to near
average but still above by up to a few degrees. Similarly,
moisture will continue to remain just above average at around
120-140% of average, equating to PWAT values of 0.75-1.25
inches. While not impressive by any stretch of the imagination,
this should continue to fuel daytime thunderstorms with a
marginal risk of severe activity. Wednesday through the end of
the week look to be largely similar with a steady warming trend,
bringing us back to temperatures similar to Monday alongside
continued daily afternoon thunderstorm risk under westerly to
northwesterly flow. Drier air will slowly infiltrate through the
week though, and this will begin to steadily increase our fire
weather risk with elevated conditions at least by Friday. Anyone
expecting an early end to summer will be sorely disappointed in
the last full week of August.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Added a mention
of showers and/or thunderstorms in all sites due to recent high
resolution model guidance, but pinpointing exact storm activity
is a bit more difficult today and these probabilities are still
on the low side. Winds breezy, 15-30 knots, stronger and more
erratic near any precipitation activity. Winds should weaken
overnight into tomorrow morning and become 10 kts or less. CIGs
will generally be mid level, with some clouds nearing low level
with thunderstorms, lifting and clearing overnight into tomorrow
morning.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG