Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

965
FXUS65 KCYS 222325
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers possible Sunday night and Monday.

- Slow warming trend expected Monday through Wednesday with
  another round of record high temperatures possible.

- Fire weather concerns will increase Tuesday and Wednesday with
  increasing westerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Clouds continue to clear out early this afternoon behind last
night`s cold front. Once clouds lift, the afternoon will be pleasant
with mostly sunny skies and relatively light winds across most of
the area. Temperatures behind the front are cooler, but are still
hovering a bit above average for this time of year. Clouds will
build back in later this evening as a weak vorticity max moves
across the area, ever so slightly increasing mid-level moisture.
Could also see breezy conditions in the Nebraska panhandle overnight
from a nocturnal low-level jet.

Hi-Res guidance suggests light showers or sprinkles developing by
daybreak Monday along the Interstate 80 corridor. A weak shortwave
will move across the CWA throughout the day, supporting these
showers into the evening hours. Best chance for precipitation will
be in the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges, but even that is not saying
much as the mid-levels still remain fairly dry. The highest peaks
may be able to squeeze out an inch of snow. Other locations along
the Interstate 80 corridor could see light rain if showers are able
to overcome the still dry low-levels. Despite the mostly cloudy
conditions expected during the day, high temperatures are expected
to be warmer than today as warm air is advected into the CWA. 700 mb
temperatures will make it to +6C at the warmest, which is roughly
the 90th percentile for NAEFS climatology. Breezy conditions will
help mix these temperatures down to the surface, allowing highs to
reach the 60s and 70s once again.

Upper-level ridging intensifies on Tuesday, leading to warmer and
drier conditions. 700 mb temperatures will rise to about +8C during
the afternoon, leading to highs mainly in the 70s. A few locations
in the Nebraska panhandle and lower elevations of eastern Wyoming
could reach the low 80s! However, increasing westerly winds aloft
from a 250 mb jet could lead to persistent mountain wave clouds that
block out some of the daytime heating. Conversely, downsloping from
the westerly winds could cause enough warming to reach the low 80s
in these locations regardless. Precipitation chances are not
expected during this time as dry desert air will be advected into
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Tuesday overnight temperatures are looking to dip into the mid 40s to
mid 50s. Humidities seem to be improving in guidance compared to the
last few days. This may be attributed to a stronger low level flow
response to a surface trough to our north in Canada on Monday and
then again with lee troughing on Tuesday and Wednesday over our
area. Humidities still fall during the day Wednesday into the teens
and single digits. Daily high temperature records are likely to be
broken, at some places by nearly 10 degrees, as temperatures soar
into the 80 and 90s outside the Ranges. Winds will be gusty given
the increasing pressure gradients contributed by the passing of
these near surface waves and the stout ridge to our south. 700 mb
geopotential height differences across the Casper and Bordeaux gaps
are reaching 50 meters, increasing the confidence of winds greater
than 50 mph. Widespread gusts out of the west to 30 to 45 mph are
possible along I-25 and points east. The wind prones could receive
gusts to 60-70 mph. This is not great news concerning fire weather
during the day. The Storm Prediction Center has kept 70 Critical
condition probabilities over the CWA given these anticipated
conditions.

Overnight Wednesday, temperatures fall into the upper 30s and
low 40s across the region. We anticipate a cold front to pass
through overnight into the morning hours of Thursday. However,
there is uncertainty about timing as guidance continues to push
the timing later in the day. This cold front is expected to drop
daytime temperatures by about 20-30 degrees east and north of
the Ranges while interior areas may drop by about 10 degrees.
This front is anticipated to be rather dry. Perhaps a few rain
and snow showers along the Sierra Madre, Snowy, and Southern
Laramie Ranges spilling into the Cheyenne Ridge in the
afternoon. PoPs are around 15-35 percent, but no appreciable
accumulations are expected at this time.

Thursday night looks chilly with lows below freezing at most places.
These seasonable temperatures are appreciated given the early taste
of summer we have been getting. Friday looks to be dry, cloudy, and
cool with lite winds given the post frontal ridging. Saturday starts
another warming trend, while staying somewhat true to what it means
to be in the springtime here in Southeastern Wyoming and Western
Nebraska. Expect the ridge to make another intrusion for at least
another couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the duration of
this TAF period. Clouds will be increasing through the overnight
hours, but CIGs will remain above 10K feet. Winds will vary across
the CWA for this forecast with a few sites (KLAR, KSNY, and KAIA)
seeing gusts to 35 knots by 18Z tomorrow morning while the remaining
terminals will see gusts generally less than 25 knots.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...RZ