Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

639
FXUS65 KCYS 192328
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
528 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet conditions end tonight as showers and severe weather
  return on Saturday, with further disturbances bringing a more
  active pattern through early next week.

- Somewhat drier air will move into the forecast area for
  Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, producing a decrease in
  areal shower and thunderstorm coverage, along with bringing a
  warming trend, though latest guidance does indicate the ridge
  may break down a bit and allow for more precipitation
  incursions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Today will be the last quiet day for our region for a while as a
more active pattern develops into Saturday and continues into
next week. For this afternoon and evening, we`ll see low level
flow continue to shift to easterly to southerly, allowing an
influx of moisture to move across the area. During the nighttime
hours we could see an isolated shower develop, particularly in
the Nebraska Panhandle or further west across Carbon County, but
overall this risk remains slight to low. What we should most
definitely see however is an influx of cloudiness in response to
this surge of moisture. Cloudiness and moisture will also help
to keep overnight lows a bit warmer, with temperatures in the
widespread 50`s.

Saturday is expected to be a very active day as we see the
return of severe weather. At the surface, a developing low in
eastern Colorado will include an attendant frontal boundary that
will stall out along our high elevation zones, causing westerly
to southwesterly flow through the Laramie Range, while easterly
to southerly flow will prevail east of the mountains, continuing
to pump moisture across the area. This boundary alongside the
orographic lift should be the focal point for thunderstorm
development. Aloft, the ridge over the area will breakdown as a
shortwave rides the periphery of this feature, with a low-
level jet strengthening into the afternoon and evening hours.
Starting the day off, the aforementioned cloud cover could help
to limit destabilization early on, but most model guidance
expects that this won`t be enough to stop thunderstorm
development for the day. And with daytime heating shooting us
back up into the 70`s to upper 80`s for highs, we should see
plenty of warmth to promote bountiful instability. Current
analysis of ensembles and high resolution guidance indicates a
strong risk of both hail and even tornado potential for the
area. Surface based instability is pushing 1000-2000 J/kg of
CAPE, but portions of the southern Panhandle are nearing 3000
J/kg at their peak. Meanwhile bulk shear values of 50-80 knots
will support rotating and strong updrafts, with very large hail
possible. Hail stones exceeding 2 inches cannot be ruled out,
particularly with any storms that can remain discrete. Meanwhile
SRH values from the HREF show around 100-200 m2/s2, but
isolated pockets nearing 300 are possible. And as the afternoon
goes on into the evening, the strengthening low-level jet could
fuel low level shear values of at least 20-30 knots, possibly
more depending upon where it takes hold, though the most likely
location for stronger shear would be the southeastern portion of
the Nebraska Panhandle. If any storms can remain discrete at
this time, roughly the 21-00Z timeframe, the tornado risk may be
much higher than just an isolated one or two, and could include
stronger and much more damaging activity. Finally, PWAT values
from the increased moisture flow will help to lower LCL`s while
also producing a low risk of heavy, flooding rainfall. Of note,
the fresh burn scar of the South Fork Fire in the northern
Panhandle would be vulnerable to heavier rainfall and could
produce flooding risk, and will need to be monitored accordingly
should heavy rainfall train across this area. By the mid to
late evening, most of the strong activity should be out of our
region, though some lingering showers and thunderstorms will
likely persist, but severe risk should be on the downward
trend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

It will be a semi-active pattern for the long term.
Sunday, a shortwave will drop down into the Intermountain West to
continue our chances for much needed rain for our farmers. Some
lingering mid-level moisture from Saturday will look to be
sufficient for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. SPC has a Slight
risk for Cheyenne County in Nebraska and a Marginal Risk from
Kimball to Alliance. The rest of forecast area is in a general
thunder instead of a severe risk. Monday into Tuesday, A low
pressure system drops into a the Northern Plains sending a frontal
passage through our area. This weak front will bring some cool air
over the Intermountain West keeping our temperatures mostly in the
70`s for both days but some isolated 80 temperatures will be
possible as warm dry air starts to also push in from the West. As
more of the dry air begins to filter in over night RH values West of
I-25 will start to drop into the teens while everything east will
stay into the 30`s and 40`s. This dry air will most likely follow
the upper level ridge that sets up on the West coast and slightly
pushes east. The ridge does look to compress on the back half of the
work week to allow some low chances for rainfall as more shortwaves
push into Pacific Northwest from the Alaskan Bay.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Low clouds and early morning showers look likely in the morning
and should clear by 18z for KCYS and the Nebraska Panhandle.
After 18z the models want to develop some showers over our
Wyoming terminals with Thunderstorm development right around 19z
for KCYS. These thunderstorms are expected to move east and
enter the Panhandle right around 21-22z and continue until about
03z after the TAF period to move out of the Panhandle. Large
hail and tornadoes will be possible with any discrete
thunderstorms. Severe wind risk up to 75mph will be possible if
the storms merge into a line of thunderstorm after 22z progged
by some of the models.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MM