Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

886
FXUS65 KCYS 292325
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record warmth and critical fire weather conditions will
  continue through Monday evening.

- A few high-based virga showers will be possible this evening,
  with more widespread activity possible Monday, bringing the
  potential for gusty and erratic winds and isolated lightning.

- A strong cold front arriving Monday night will bring cooler
  temperatures and a chance for rain and snow Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Hi-res models have trended further south near the Colorado as they
also shift most of the forcing south into Colorado as well. So, not
too confident that these showers will travel north into our forecast
area. However, there are a couple models that maintain some showers
near Saratoga, Rawlins and Laramie after 7pm with an end time near
Midnight. If showers do move more north into our forecast area, then
very little precipitation and brief strong erratic winds should be
expected underneath and in proximity of these showers.

By Monday, our area will begin to experience some influence from a
Pacific trough finally breaking into the northern Rockies region.
This system will support potent lee cyclogenesis over the Black
Hills region, with surface pressure falling rapidly through the day.
Stronger westerly winds will overspread most of the area. Look for
wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph in Wyoming, and 30 to 40 mph in Nebraska.
 This will keep fire danger quite high again as temperatures creep
up a few more degrees in the Nebraska panhandle. In addition, the
late afternoon and evening virga shower activity looks slightly more
widespread on Monday. Lightning probabilities will also be a touch
higher, perhaps around 10-20%. As elevated moisture increases ahead
of the next system, we may actually see some rainfall reach the
ground. While the chance for wetting rainfall (0.10" or more)
remains quite low Monday evening, there is about a 20-30% for 0.01"
over much of the area. There is about 30% chance for winds exceeding
high wind criteria in the typical wind prone areas. Parameters for
synoptic winds are largely unimpressive, but the boost from the
virga shower activity could be enough to get a few gusts exceeding
60 mph.

Big changes will finally arrive with a powerful cold front Monday
night. The lee cyclone will begin to race eastward around sunset,
allowing rapid pressure rises to push down from the north along a
frontal boundary. Expect an abrupt wind shift to the north behind
this boundary. Winds could be quite strong right along the front as
well, with potential for gusts of 45 to 55 mph during a brief window
behind the frontal passage. Shower activity will continue along and
behind the front, continuing into Tuesday morning. Rapid cold air
advection will also change precipitation type from rain over to snow
by daybreak Tuesday for most of the area. The front will stall just
west of the Laramie Range, allowing milder air to remain in Carbon
county. The frontal passage may bring a dusting to an inch or so of
snow to portions of the area and a rapid drop in temperatures end up
just below freezing by Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

We remain in an active and cooler pattern into the middle of the
week ahead of a dampened shortwave trough embedded in mid-level
zonal flow. This will provide a source for ascent and hence chances
for beneficial precipitation across Southern Wyoming and
Western Nebraska. Models continue to show isentropic ascent
throughout this period, in addition to southeasterly
anticyclonic upslope flow, which which increases confidence that
we will see beneficial moisture from this rather weak wave
Wednesday into Thursday. NBM has 60-70% probabilities of
exceeding 0.25" of liquid (either in the form of rain and/or
snow) through Thursday morning, with odds of 40-50% of exceeding
the same threshold for our Nebraska counties. The LREF has
around 20% lower probabilities through this timeframe so there
is still some uncertainty which will likely become ironed out in
the next couple of days.

As for precipitation type, temperatures look to be borderline cold
enough for snow east of the Laramie Range, with 50th percentile
temperatures hovering at or slightly above freezing on Wednesday
morning and Wednesday high temperatures primarily in the 40s given
extensive cloud cover and upslope surface flow. While a mixture of
rain and snow seems the most likely, any changes in forecast
temperature could result in areas seeing more snow versus rain, or
vice-versa.

Thursday is expected to be the warmest day of the period as west-
southwesterly 700 mb flow increases to 45-50 knots resulting in a
warm, downsloping regime in the lee of the Laramie and Snowy Ranges.
Omega fields also show a mountain wave pattern with strong descent
in the lee of the aforementioned ranges. This will bring an increase
in the high wind threat especially for the favored areas of
Arlington and Bordeaux Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. In-
house machine learning guidance currently has high wind
probabilities(gusts > 58 mph) for both locations around 70-80%. As
we know, with wind usually comes the warmth, so high temperatures on
Thursday should easily exceed 60 degrees for areas east of the I-25
corridor.

Late Thursday into Friday, a more amplified shortwave trough ejects
off to the east, however at this time the bulk of the forcing for
ascent looks to remain to our north over South Dakota and NE
Wyoming. As a result of the surface low ejecting off the higher
terrain and associated lee cyclogenesis to our north and east, a
cold front will slice across Southern Wyoming into Friday morning
bringing a decrease in high temperatures on Friday and chances for
precipitation depending on the eventual track of the lee cyclone.
Given ample low-level cold advection behind the front, expect Friday
and Saturday`s high temperatures to remain 5-10 degrees blow
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the duration of
this TAF period. Any precipitation that develops this evening should
stay south of our CWA; however, if any activity moves north into our
area, KLAR and KRWL have the best chances through 06Z this evening.
Winds will wind down this afternoon/evening to 10 knots or less
across all terminals. Between 17Z and 21Z Monday, winds will ramp
back up with westerly gusts 20 to 40 knots, strongest at KRWL and
KLAR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ417>423-425-
     427>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN/MM
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RZ