Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

327
FXUS65 KCYS 172044
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
244 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering snowfall possible this afternoon, subsiding into the
  evening hours with minimal accumulations expected.

- Winter-like temperatures in the teens to low 20s are expected
  by Saturday morning, creating a risk for outdoor irrigation
  and sensitive vegetation that has emerged from winter dormancy
  early.

- Critical Fire Weather conditions expected on Saturday with
  gusty winds and low humidity values, with further critical
  conditions possible Sunday and again Monday as humidities dive
  into the single digit values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

We saw some impressive snowfall rates finally this morning as
banding activity moved across in the post-frontal environment.
While snow did briefly bring down visibilities, overall
accumulations were minimal with limited significant impacts
outside of localized travel conditions. A few echoes are still
seen on radar with light snowfall possible as this activity
moves across the region, but this should be on the downward
trend and exiting the region into the evening and overnight
hours. For tonight, the combination of snowfall that continues
to stick to the ground alongside the arctic airmass that has
overspread the region will contribute to very cold temperatures,
with overnight lows descending into the mid to low 20`s and
even some teens making an appearance. Don`t be surprised if we
see lows tank in the panhandle thanks to clearing skies.

Moving into the weekend, the main story will be the complete 180
in our conditions as we go from cool temperatures and
precipitation to warming and fire weather concerns. The limited
snowfall we did receive won`t be enough to counter the dry
conditions we`ve been having east of the mountains, and a Red
Flag Warning is in effect for Saturday due to low RH values
combined with gusty winds in the 25 to 35 mph range. Sunday will
continue the drying trend as we see RH values bottom out into
the single digit values, and while winds won`t be nearly as
strong under a weaker pressure gradient, our overall fire threat
will remain high due to this dry environment. A Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for Sunday, and will extend into Monday as
overnight recoveries only peak at a paltry 35-45%, with daytime
minimums once again into the single digits on Monday. Outside
of fire weather, no other sensible weather concerns are
anticipated under mostly clear skies with temperatures warming
into the 50`s on Saturday, and the return of 60`s and 70`s on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The work week will begin under the influence of a longwave ridge
centered over the Rocky Mountain region, placing us in mid-level
zonal flow. Unsurprisingly this will result in well above average
temperatures, with locations east of the Laramie Range in the 70s
and low 80s, especially in our Nebraska counties. West of I-25,
temperatures will be slightly cooler in the 60s. Fire weather will
be the main concern on Monday as median RH values are around 10%
east of the Laramie Range per LREF guidance. Ensemble guidance also
has median wind gusts of 20-25 mph, so combined with plenty of dry
fuels given that our recent system didn`t provide much in the way of
moisture, fire conditions look to be elevated at this time. Have
issued a Fire Weather Watch for area along and east of I-25 for this
reason through Monday evening.

Not much change for Tuesday, except for slightly weaker winds which
should decrease the fire concerns. RH values will also be slightly
higher in the 15-20% range. High temperatures look to be a about 5
degrees warmer than Monday considering the ridge axis is progged to
be located over SE Wyoming and W Nebraska. Not exactly threatening
daily record highs, but temperatures should reach 20 degrees above
climatology.

Wednesday the ridge begins to progress to the east, placing us in a
southwesterly flow regime ahead of a closed low located over Oregon
and Northern California. High temperatures look to remain similar to
those of Tuesday, however given weak forcing for ascent downstream
of the closed low, we may manage to see some high-based convection.
Ensemble model soundings indicate inverted-v profiles, so wind is
more likely than any beneficial rainfall. This is also consistent
with ensemble median PWAT values which are around climatology,
suggesting the overall lack of moisture.

On Thursday, the closed low progresses into an open wave and lifts
off to the north and east of our area, bringing us a series of
vorticity maxima along the base of the shortwave, providing some
greater forcing for ascent. At the very least, this should increase
cloud cover over Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska. There is
a slight increase in PWAT (0.05" more) relative to Wednesday,
however the bulk of the moisture remains well to our north and east,
so precipitation chances appear low at this time, so will keep low
PoPs in the forecast. Given the increasing cloud cover, we can
expect temperatures to be 10-15 degrees cooler than Wednesday`s
highs.

Ensembles are hinting at a cold front pushing across our area
sometime Thursday evening into Friday morning, so Friday is expected
to be much cooler than the rest of the work week. With the general
lack of moisture along with quasi-zonal flow, beneficial
precipitation unfortunately doesn`t look to accompany this
front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A weather disturbance aloft will move across the forecast area
today, with strong northwest flow developing for tonight and
Saturday.

Wyoming TAFS...High confidence in ceilings from 5000 to
9000 feet at Rawlins until 01Z, then clearing skies as the
weather disturbance moves away. Gradients suggest winds gusting
to 25 knots until 01Z, and after 15Z Saturday.

For Laramie and Cheyenne, moderate confidence in ceilings from
1500 to 3500 feet through 02Z, with a weather disturbance
producing occasional light snow and visibilities to 3/4 mile,
then scattered to broken clouds prevail after 02Z. Winds gusting
to 30 knots until 02Z, and to 30 knots after 15Z Saturday.

Nebraska TAFS...For Chadron and Alliance, moderate confidence in
ceilings near 8000 feet until 02Z, with a weather disturbance
producing light snow and visibilities to 3 miles with ceilings
near 2000 feet, then skies will become clear after 02Z.
Gradients support wind gusts to 28 knots until 02Z, and to
30 knots after 15Z Saturday.

For Scottsbluff and Sidney, moderate confidence in ceilings from
2500 to 5000 feet until 02Z, then clearing skies. A weather
disturbance will produce light snow and visibilities from 3/4 to
4 miles with ceilings near 1500 to 2500 feet. Gradients support
wind gusts to 30 knots until 02Z, and after 15Z Saturday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for
     WYZ430>433.
     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening
  for WYZ417-418-430>433.

NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for
 NEZ434>437. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through
 Monday evening for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RUBIN