Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

105
FXUS65 KCYS 252012
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
212 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain and mountain snowfall expected today and
  Monday as a central Pacific system lifts northeast across the
  region.

- Near normal temperatures and a bit warmer by Tuesday through
  Thursday, but the next Pacific system will be approaching from
  the eastern Pacific later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

What a difference a day will make as we see a more active
weather pattern through Monday morning across the CWA as a stout
upper level low moves from the Desert Southwest into the
region. But first, lets take a quick look at today`s
temperatures with highs west of I-25 topping out in the lower
50s and lower to upper 40s east of the corridor. While lows
tonight dip into the lower to mid 30s. Switching gears a bit and
taking a look at the upper levels, initially we have a cut off
low over the Desert Southwest while we sit under a southwesterly
flow regime with a ridge to our east across the Mississippi
Valley. As we progress through this afternoon, the cut off low
will lift northeast and as it does so, the flow aloft over the
CWA will become difluent, this combined with a plume of Pacific
moisture and favorable ascent will support increased
precipitation chances across the CWA by the late afternoon hours
through the overnight into Monday morning.

Lets take a closer look at today through Monday morning, the low
over the Southwest will continue to lift northeast closer to our
CWA. Guidance indicates a surge of moisture ahead of this system,
with ensemble members having PWATs above and around the 98th
percentile. With adequate forcing, moderate rainfall looks to be a
possibility. So, with ingredients in place, this looks like a
scenario where up to 0.5" of rainfall, locally higher amounts, are
possible across southeast Wyoming. With the best dynamics
setting up over the Nebraska Panhandle, many locations there
have the best chances of seeing 1.0" of precipitation. With this
system moving in, especially in the afternoon hours, it is not
out of the realm of possibility to see a few embedded weak
thunderstorms as there is some instability in place, albeit a
very slight chance. The coverage with regards to the rain
showers will initially be scattered in nature then become more
widespread this afternoon into the evening/overnight hours,
when the heaviest of the precipitation is expected due to the
influx of Pacific moisture. As we head into the overnight hours,
the upper level low will slide northeast across the CWA. As it
continues to lift off to the northeast Monday morning, rain
showers will linger across the Nebraska Panhandle with clearing
off to the west. This clearing will continue through the day as
the system lifts out of the region, from a west to east. Most
of the precipitation should remain as all rain, but for the late
evening hours through the overnight can`t rule out a few snow
flakes mixing in. Not expecting any accumulations at lower
elevations due to the warm soil temperatures, but higher
elevation may see sub-advisory snowfall, with amounts on the
order of 5.0" or less.

Expect slightly cooler temperatures Monday to hang on east of the I-
25 corridor as highs will only top out in the lower to mid 40s
across the Nebraska Panhandle while elsewhere highs will approach
the low 50s. Looking west of I-25, highs will top out into the lower
to mid 50s. Lows Monday night will tank into the lower 30s, to near
freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

No major changes in the long term period, please see previous
discussion...

Medium to long range models in reasonable agreement through late
week, with a period of quiet weather expected for southeast Wyoming
and western Nebraska during the middle of the week. Models show
moderate southwesterly flow across the area with the polar jet
staying north of the Front Range, and the subtropical jet staying
well to the south over Texas and northern Mexico. We`re kind of in-
between these two separate storm tracks for most of the week with
mostly quiet weather expected and near or slightly above average
temperatures. A pair of potent Pacific shortwave troughs are
forecast to impact the area late this weekend and early next week,
with the second one likely missing southern Wyoming and remaining
north of the area Tuesday. Models show a surface "cold front"
rapidly moving east and clipping the forecast area to the north.
However, all this front will do is shift low to midlevel winds into
the west and increase wind speeds on Tuesday and Tuesday
night...producing somewhat warmer downslope winds for a bulk of the
area, including the high plains. Will need to watch for High Wind
criteria for the typical wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming since
most models show 700mb winds increasing over 45 knots by Tuesday
morning and remaining elevated through Tuesday night with a decent
surface pressure gradient and some hint of brief mountain wave
activity. At this time, in-house wind guidance shows probability of
wind gusts over 55 MPH around 20% to 45% for Arlington, Bordeaux,
and even some of the sub wind prone areas along Interstate 25 near
Douglas. For now, increase wind speeds up to criteria but did not
increase wind gusts over 60 MPH quite yet. Event should be pretty
brief and not too widespread, and peak mid Tuesday morning. Models
have backed off on winds Tuesday night/early Wednesday with a slight
downward trend, so kept those winds lower for now.

Downslope winds should result in relatively mild temperatures for
this time of the year Tuesday through Thursday, but not quite as
warm as it has been prior to this weekend. Kept high temperatures in
the upper 50s to upper 60s, warmest of the eastern plains below 5000
feet and coolest temperatures across Carbon and Albany counties.
Peak temperatures should occur later in the week with highs
approaching 70 degrees over the western Nebraska panhandle as an
upper level ridge axis across the southern United States and the
Gulf amplifies ahead of the next Pacific storm system. Model
solutions begin to diverge at this time, which is to be expected
nearly 7 days out, as potential long wave trough attempts to settle
across the eastern Pacific Ocean with a potent storm system pushing
inland and into the Great Basin Region by late next Saturday and
into next Sunday. Will have to keep an eye on this storm later in
the forecast period as some model solutions and ensembles show a
decent amount of colder air along with a subtropical moisture tap
from the central Pacific. This pattern typically favors lee-side low
pressure systems and an active weather pattern for the Front
Range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A complex forecast ahead as a Pacific storm will move across the
region later this afternoon through Monday afternoon. Expect
rain showers to overspread the CWA later today as the storm
gets closer, impacting all terminals at varying times. MVFR CIGs
will continue to hold firm at KSNY and KAIA, dropping to IFR in
several hours. Elsewhere, CIGs have lifted and cleared for
KCYS, KLAR, and KRWL. This will be brief as clouds will return
as the Pacific storm system moves closer, expect a return of IFR
to LIFR CIGs by 03Z Monday along with increasing precipitation
chances, especially for the Nebraska terminals and KCYS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RZ