Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

864
FXUS65 KCYS 261151
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
550 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms
  Friday afternoon. Isolated large hail and strong gusty winds
  are possible east of Interstate 25.

- Warming temperatures, falling humidity, and increasing winds
  will increase fire weather concerns this weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Much quieter weather early this morning, compared to Thursday
morning, with decreasing cloudiness as yesterday`s upper level
trough axis ejects well east of the forecast area into the
central plains. Some low clouds will persist over east central
Wyoming and most of the western Nebraska Panhandle through the
early morning hours, although fog will become more patchy
through sunrise as southerly winds gradually increase.

All models continue to show a warming and drying trend
beginning today as the mid to upper level flow backs into the
southwest ahead of an elongated upper level trough across the
Pacific coast. 700mb temperatures will respond and climb above
13c, but southerly winds will keep temperatures in the low to
mid 80s, slightly cooler across the Pine Ridge and Cheyenne
Ridge. Models show an embedded shortwave moving east across the
area Friday afternoon, which will likely trigger another round
of thunderstorms. However, with the drier airmass beginning to
push into the region and some boundary layer CIN noted on the
area soundings, expect coverage to be lower compared to the
last several days. The most favorable location for strong to
severe thunderstorms will likely be east of I-25 into western
Nebraska, with thunderstorms pushing out of the area by the
early evening hours (6 to 8 pm). Marginally large hail and brief
strong gusty winds will be the primary severe weather threats.
Based on current high res guidance, this threat is expected to
be pretty isolated with only a few thunderstorms approaching
severe thresholds.

Dry weather returns on Saturday for all of southeast Wyoming
and most of western Nebraska as a dryline-like feature slowly
drifting east through the afternoon hours. High resolution
guidance has started to show this dryline stalling over the
western Nebraska Panhandle in the late afternoon, with some
thunderstorm activity initiating over Dawes, Box Butte, Morrill,
and Cheyenne counties late in the afternoon and evening hours.
Will keep an eye on this to see if it becomes a trend, but kept
a slight risk of showers and thunderstorms for the northern and
central Nebraska Panhandle for now Saturday evening. Models tend
to move the surface moisture out of the area too quickly in
these cases. Otherwise, much drier air will spread across
Wyoming with increasing southwest winds. Could see gusts
approaching 55 MPH for parts of Carbon and possibly Albany
counties with all models showing a rare late June 250mb jet core
of 120kts over south central Wyoming. 700 to 500mb winds are
expected to respond with westerly winds of 45 to 50 knots during
the day. Can`t rule out high wind criteria, but confidence is
pretty low at this time due to a weak surface pressure gradient
and mostly a boundary layer mixing event expected with little
forcing. Other than some fire weather concerns, should be
relatively quiet weather and pleasant conditions for most of the
region. High temperatures will be very warm, and generally in
the mid 80s to mid 90s...warmest below 5000 feet.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A large upper level trough will set up shop over the Pacific
Northwest at the beginning of the long term. The western lobe of
this trough is favored to have more vorticity and energy. This
vorticity lobe will swing south and north while becoming negatively
tilted as it move over our area Monday. We would typically expect
unsettled weather with such setups, however it appears the dryline
will be too far east, shutting off our access to moisture for
widespread rain.

Sunday a cold front associated with the aforementioned trough will
make its way through the area. A slight uptick in precipitation
probabilities is anticipated mainly for the northern portions of the
CWA, though widespread rain is unlikely. GEFS ensemble members have
between a 40-70% of points receiving any measurable rainfall.
Following the frontal passage we stick with a dry and warming trend.
Highs creeping into the 90s west of I-25 by Thursday. Gusty winds
will continue to no ones surprise. It probably will not be until
Wednesday or Thursday that moisture makes its return to our most
eastern counties. A few dry storms could then be allowed to develop
with enough lifting from the persistent but disorganized troughing
to our west.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Low clouds and some fog will linger across far eastern Wyoming and
western Nebraska early this morning before lifting by midmorning.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected after 20z this
afternoon for most terminals. Winds are also expected to increase
out of the south and southwest late this morning and this afternoon.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: IFR to LIFR VIS and CIGS will linger for
KAIA, KBFF, and possibly KCDR until 14z as low level moisture
remains near the surface. A drier airmass is expected to begin
moving into Wyoming through this afternoon, which should limit
thunderstorm coverage compared to the last several days. Expect
widely scattered thunderstorms along and east of the Laramie Range
into western Nebraska. Kept PROB30 groups and VCTS for the terminals
with the highest chance to see thunderstorm activity between 21z
today and 03z Saturday. Brief heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and
MVFR conditions possible with these storms.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...TJT