Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

516
FXUS65 KCYS 272320
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
420 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warnings remain in effect through Friday evening and
  Saturday morning.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through Saturday evening
  for most locations.

- Warmer, drier weather expected over the next few days before
  precipitation chances start increasing Sunday
  afternoon/evening and onwards.

- Multiple rounds of precipitation possible through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Forecast remains active in the short term as we see high winds
and critical fire weather conditions through Saturday, with a
pattern change then bringing precipitation chances to the area.
For today and Saturday - ongoing high winds and low RH values
will continue to fuel highlights across the region into Saturday
afternoon. High wind warnings are expected to remain in place
through Saturday morning, with winds weakening after 12Z as
pressure gradients relax and the jet weakens as well. In house
guidance remains on board with this scenario, with probabilities
of winds 58+ mph nosediving after 12Z (<40%). But that will not
be our only hazard, as the ridging in control of the region
continues to restrict our moisture and keep temperatures warm,
promoting a critical fire weather environment that will persist
through Saturday afternoon. Overnight recoveries will continue
to remain poor to moderate (35-55%), but a backdoor cold front
on Saturday will decrease temperatures across our northern zones
and bring enough moisture for these locations to preclude
further critical fire weather concerns. But for our southeastern
zones, generally from Platte and Goshen Counties and
southeastwards into the I-80 corridor, RH values will once again
descend into the mid to low teens. This combined with winds
remaining breezy in the 25-35 mph range will continue to promote
critical conditions, with the Red Flag Warning remaining in
place across this region through 00Z Sunday.

For Saturday evening and Sunday - Ridging over the western US
will begin to falter as approaching low pressure from the
Pacific weakens this dominating high. An initial shortwave will
move across the region during this timeframe ahead of the larger
low, causing our winds to shift and moisture to increase for the
CWA. This will help to finally temper our absurd critical fire
weather environment, and to increase precipitation chances first
across our southern high elevation zones before overspreading
across most of the CWA late Sunday into early Monday. With flow
first westerly before turning more southwesterly late in the
forecast period, upslope flow will be on the rise for our high
elevation zones, so we should see a notable increase in
precipitation chances for these areas. But with temperatures
remaining 10-15 degrees above normal, don`t expect much wintry
precipitation out of this activity aside from the mountains, and
instead welcome a more spring-like rain. Though any
precipitation we can get will be welcome at this point with
significant drought throughout our region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

The work week will begin under the influence of a weak ridge located
downstream of a rather vigorous shortwave trough situated over
Northern California, resulting in a continuation of the anomalously
warm conditions across SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. There
is weak isentropic ascent located over our area Monday morning into
the afternoon, which is also reflected in the omega fields. 700 mb
flow remains quasi-zonal and forecast soundings indicate some dry
air in the low levels, so the Sierra Madre and Snowy ranges will be
the favored areas for QPF, although there will still be a chance for
a few rain or snow showers at lower elevations, though it may be
more of a virga event, resulting in more wind than precipitation.

Monday night into Tuesday is when we have the highest confidence of
seeing the majority of our precipitation, as there is some 700 mb
frontogenesis across Southern Wyoming helping to provide some
forcing for ascent, hence increasing our chances for more widespread
precipitation. The NBM has mean QPF ranging from 0.15-0.20 inches
for areas east of the I-25 corridor, whereas our mountain ranges
should see an additional 0.10 inches given the mid-level flow
regime. NBM probabilities of seeing 0.1 inches of liquid or greater
is a near certainty for the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges, whereas
east of the Laramie Range areas have a 50% shot at seeing QPF
exceeding this threshold. 50% probabilities also exist at achieving
WWA criteria for the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges, so stay tuned
for future updates as this event gets closer.

As this system is rather disorganized and the majority of the
synoptic-scale forcing for ascent is located well to our south over
Colorado, this event unfortunately won`t put much of a dent in our
ongoing drought conditions. On Tuesday, temperatures at lower
elevations are progged to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, so any
precipitation in extreme Eastern Wyoming and our Nebraska counties
will likely fall as rain.

On Wednesday high temperatures rebound into the mid to upper 50s for
areas east of the Laramie Range as a weak mid-level ridge builds in
ahead of the next shortwave trough, therefore conditions will remain
dry. Thursday our next system of interest should impact our area as
it moves in from the west. This system digs in more so from the
north compared to the system earlier in the week, so we can expect a
dip in our temperatures and increasing chances for beneficial
moisture for Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska. Our winds
will also ramp up at this time especially in the usual wind-prone
areas of Bordeaux and Arlington thanks to 40-50 knot 700 mb flow
rounding the base of the shortwave trough in addition to anafrontal
gradient flow as this system lifts to the north and east away from
our area. In-house guidance has maximum probabilities of around 50%
of seeing 60 mph gusts or greater in these areas, so while not as
impressive as what we have seen most recently, high winds will
return to the picture for the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 420 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions will dominate across all terminals for the duration
of this TAF period. Winds, as a whole, will generally remain gusty
for the southeast Wyoming terminals through most of this forecast,
with gusts 20 to 40 knots. The Nebraska panhandle sites will
see winds diminish this afternoon/evening to 10 knots of less
and pick right back up by tomorrow morning with gusts topping
out to around 25 knots. LLWS will be possible for KCYS, KLAR,
and KSNY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for WYZ417-418.
     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for WYZ430>433.
     High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Saturday for WYZ106-110-116-
     117.
     High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST Saturday for WYZ109.
     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ118.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for NEZ434-435.
     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for NEZ436-437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RZ