Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

077
FXUS65 KCYS 182346
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
546 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions and above average temperatures are
  expected to continue for much of the week ahead.

- The next chance for precipitation and temperatures closer to
  seasonal averages will be Friday into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Based off current observations, it appears the weak surface cold
front has traversed most of the CWA with winds shifting more
northerly. As a result, temperatures are cooler today than
yesterday, but still above average for mid to late October. Cloud
cover is also increasing across the area as a shortwave in southern
California advects mid-level moisture into Utah and western
Colorado. Clouds will also help moderate temperatures, with
highs expected in the 60s for most cities in southeast Wyoming
and western Nebraska. It is worth mentioning that Hi-Res
guidance does show a slight chance of precipitation later this
evening, mainly in Carbon County. However, it is likely too dry
to get any showers/meaningful precipitation to develop.

Rinse and repeat for Monday and Tuesday as the pattern stays
relatively stagnant over the next few days. Temperatures on Monday
will be similar to Sunday with most locations seeing highs in the
60s as the CWA still sits behind the surface front. This front will
recede back northward by Tuesday morning, leading to warmer
temperatures on Tuesday. Highs east of the Laramie Range will bounce
back into the 70s, which will be about 10 degrees above average for
late October. Still looking at a bit of cloud cover on both days,
mainly over the high terrain and areas further west. The slow moving
shortwave over southern California will gradually makes its way
northeastward into southern Wyoming by Tuesday. However, by
Tuesday, the system will be pretty moisture starved with only a
bit of mid-level moisture remaining. As a result of the
shortwave inching closer to Wyoming, cannot rule out slight
chances of showers both Monday afternoon/evening and during the
day Tuesday. There will be a bit more lift involved on Tuesday,
so Tuesday will be the day with the "greatest" precipitation
chance.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

The long term period starts out mild and quiet as we remain on the
western periphery of a longwave ridge, placing us in a southwesterly
flow regime. As a result, high temperatures on both Wednesday and
Thursday will peak 10-15 degrees above climatology (average high for
Cheyenne on Thursday is 57F). The southwesterly flow will allow for
a surge of mid to upper-level moisture from Baja California ahead of
an amplified closed low located off the coast of California. Latest
NAEFS guidance suggests PWAT near the climatological maximum on
Thursday (~0.75"), which is quite remarkable given that our
southwestern monsoon pattern typically ends in early to mid
September. The main question will be if we can actually translate
any of this rich moisture down to the surface as precipitation,
which has been difficult to do so far this year. Unfortunately, our
prospects aren`t exactly looking favorable for any widespread QPF as
the main synoptic-scale forcing for ascent is temporally offset from
the primary moisture plume. The main DCVA combined with weak
isentropic ascent looks to be over SE Wyoming sometime on Friday,
which also looks like the day with our best chance for showers.
Thunderstorm chances look to be low at this time as LREF guidance
and forecast soundings show MLCAPE generally below 100 J/Kg, with
slightly higher values in the Panhandle. Friday also looks to be
quite mild, with median high temperatures per LREF guidance staying
in the mid 60s to mid 70s east of the I-25 corridor, and primarily
50s west of the Laramie Range.

The unsettled pattern will continue into the weekend as the closed
low gradually translates to the east over the Desert Southwest,
placing us in a region of weak zonal flow aloft. Again, not overly
enthusiastic about chances for widespread precipitation across SE
Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle given that forcing for ascent is
rather weak. Still quite a ways out so not going to get into
specifics, but deterministic runs are showing a cold front moving
across our region some time on Saturday with a 10-15 degree drop in
high temperatures relative to Thursday and Friday, so we may
actually see an "average" day of fall weather this weekend with
chances for precipitation, though shower coverage will likely be
spotty.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period. Expect some mid
to high level cloud cover to filter through the region through
Monday morning. Northeast winds over the plains will weaken and
become occasionally variable overnight before settling on south
to southeast by midday Monday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...MN