Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

901
FXUS65 KCYS 212350
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
550 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all areas east of the
  Laramie Range until Wednesday evening as critical fire
  conditions are expected.

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather
  Wednesday afternoon. The primary concerns will be damaging
  winds gusts caused by microbursts.

- The potential for high winds will return Wednesday afternoon
  into Thursday. This may event spread outside of the wind prone
  areas. A High Wind Watch has been issued for Wednesday
  afternoon through Thursday evening.

- A cooler weather pattern with more frequent chances for precipitation
  will take over Thursday and last into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 316 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

The apex of the upper level ridging is just about centered over the
Intermountain West. This ridging has help facilitate our mostly
clear skies and drier air being pumped towards the surface. Looking
across the Southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle area winds
remain rather light with RH values being around 15 percent or less
across the forecast area. As this ridge pushes off this evening an
upper level trough will slowly push eastward from the Pacific
Northwest and along the Canadian border. The pressure gradient is
expected to increase as the trough pushes into the region as well as
the dry line moving through. High winds look to start Wednesday
morning and last through the evening Thursday. WInds in and along
the wind prones look to possibly reach up to 80 mph as the 700mb jet
increases to around 70 to 75 knots late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning. With the increasing downsloping winds Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday, its questionable as to whether the dryline
will have any moisture to lift considering the RH values being so
low. If any showers do develop along the dryline then the highest
threat would most likely be a dry microburst type setup where
precipitation falls out of the cloud and evaporates before hitting
the ground, however the weight and pressure displaced by the
precipitation is still moving towards the ground causing and
increase in wind gusts in all directions from the center point of
where this column of weight and pressure impacts the ground. The
high winds will continue into Thursday as the upper level trough
continues to push through the Intermountain West and into the
Northern Plains. There is a little bit of moisture being advected
into the region along the trough axis as it pushes eastward. The
highest chance for any measurable precipitation is in the mountains
and lower elevations of Carbon county. The dry layer near the
surface will be reinforced by the high winds east and along the I-25
corridor thus limiting the amount of any measurable precipitation
hitting the ground in the lower elevations. As the high winds start
to die down Thursday afternoon the precipitation chances will start
to increase for the lower elevations east of I-25. Even though most
of the forcing looks to be contained in the Dakota`s, there are a
couple vort maxes that lagged behind the main trough and increase
the amount of synoptic forcing for our area. By Thursday evening the
High winds should be done but we will have lingering strong gusts
along I-80 and in our wind prone areas. Overnight Thursday, another
shortwave will push into the Intermountain West giving greater
precipitation chances across the forecast area moving into Friday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

As we head into the long term period, one thing will be very clear,
the air will feel a little crisper on your skin. Expect temperatures
to be and remain near normal, believe it or not, with highs topping
out in the 50s across southeast Wyoming and low to upper 60s in the
Nebraska Panhandle. Not only this, but we will be in an active
pattern, so precipitation chances will be elevated compared to what
we`ve been seeing as of late. Why, well, more on that in a bit.
Hopefully this increased chance of precipitation will make a dent in
the extreme drought (U.S. Drought Monitor) we are in and cut down
our fire weather threat. So, what is different this time around?
Well, the main player in this forecast period will be a robust upper-
level low that becomes parked over Saskatchewan with a trough
stretching south into our region. This will allow vort maxes, pulses
of energy, to feed into our CWA and kick start that increased
precipitation chance. As we progress into and through the weekend,
this upper-level low will remain quasi-stationary over Saskatchewan
through at least Monday. Thereafter, it will move off to the east
and weaken as a weak transient ridge builds across our CWA, drying
us out briefly.

What are the probabilities of seeing at least 0.10" of
precipitation? Well, there will be a weak system that slides in
Friday and ensemble guidance has probs remaining relatively low
across the CWA. However, there will be another system over the
weekend into early next week that will give us a better chance.
Probs with this one are in the 60 to 80% range of seeing 0.10" of
liquid precipitation. Most locations will see primarily rain, but in
the higher elevations this rain may mix with snow or remain all
snow, with amounts still needing a bit of ironing out. Winds in the
long term will not be much of a concern with meager mid-level
support. Friday morning has our best chances with a 50 knot 700MB
jet sliding in. Per GFS, omega will be lacking so these winds may
not mix down to the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

High pressure aloft will remain over the region until Wednesday
morning. A cold front and associated upper level trough will then
push into Wyoming late in the morning and afternoon. Increasing
winds and cloud cover is expected after 15z Wednesday.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will continue over the next
24 hours. Winds will become relatively light tonight before
increasing from west to east between 11z and 19z respectively. Gusts
between 30 to 40 knots expected for the southeast Wyoming terminals,
and between 25 to 35 knots for western Nebraska. Can`t rule out a
shower or thunder shower for KSNY, KAIA, and KCDR Wednesday
afternoon, but confidence and coverage are low at this time.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Wednesday for WYZ417-418-
     430>433.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
     afternoon for WYZ101.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for WYZ104-109-111-113.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     afternoon for WYZ106-116>118.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
     afternoon for WYZ107-108-115-119.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for WYZ110.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Wednesday for NEZ434>437.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for NEZ003-019>021-054-055-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...TJT