Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

077
FXUS65 KCYS 110003
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
603 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning has been extended for eastern Wyoming and all
  of western Nebraska through Friday evening, with critical or
  near- critical fire conditions through the work week.

- High Wind Warning in effect for the Arlington wind prone area
  along I-80 through this 8pm this evening with the remaining
  High Wind watches set to expire at 6pm this evening.

- Cooler than average temperatures expected late in the weekend
  into early next week with widespread precipitation possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 333 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Gusty winds remain blowing about 40 to 50 mph with
some isolated places briefly gusting up to 60-70 mph in the wind
prones. The 700mb jet is expected to remain active over the next
couple days. However, this evening a cold front is progged to arrive
between 8pm and Midnight. The winds will briefly decrease tonight
but expect the winds to ramp back up behind this front and switch to
a more North-nortwesterly direction. Models and model soundings
don`t show any showers associated with this front as there is very
little forcing and moisture in our area. Around 15 pops were added
tonight mainly to Converse county, WY and Cheyenne County, NE as
some models have showers moving in from bordering counties. The dry
layer is pretty stout so no measurable precipitation is expected
from the passing showers. Moving into Thursday, the 700mb jet will
gradually decrease to around 35 to 40kts. Due to diurnal mixing wind
gusts between 30- 40mph can be expected during the day with a
gradual wane Thursday night into Friday morning. The Red Flag
warning was extended through Friday evening because of the
persistent gusty winds Thursday afternoon. Behind the front the RH
recovery is okay as 50 to 60 percent over the Panhandle and RH
values look to drop in the 20`s in the Northern half with a drop
into the teens in the southern half.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Heading into the long term period, most of the CWA east of the I-25
corridor will have elevated fire weather concerns with dry
conditions continuing along with temperatures soaring into the mid
80s to mid 90s, warmest across the Nebraska Panhandle. This
coincides with minimum RH values tanking into the single digits by
Friday afternoon. A silver lining, winds don`t look to be all that
gusty, generally less than 25 mph. So, this may help in limiting any
fire spread for fires that are ongoing or if a new one begins. Then,
some changes are in store for over the weekend.

By Saturday evening, a 500MB shortwave takes a nose dive south, out
of Montana, into our CWA. This will bring a surface cold front that
slides across the region late Saturday into Sunday, increasing the
chances of precipitation along with bringing in a surge of cooler
air. Therefore, temperatures on Sunday will only top out in the mid
60s for many locations across the CWA, a tad cooler than what we`ve
been having as of late. This will bring an end to the fire weather
threat for the time being. The aforementioned shortwave rides on the
western peripheral of a deep trough that sets up over most of the
CONUS just to our east while a weak ridge tries to build to our
southwest. This keeps us under northwesterly flow which will bring
us a continuation of cooler temperatures through mid-week. Winds, as
of now, may pose minimal to no threat as the signal is weak within
most guidance. At the tail end of this forecast period, models are
hinting to a return of drier conditions along with a spike in
temperatures, stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 603 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions will remain through the next 24 hours under zonal
flow at the base of a longwave trough, resulting in dry conditions.
Unsurprisingly, the main concern will be the breezy conditions with
westerly winds of 20-30 knots ahead of a cold front this evening
before winds shift to northwesterly post frontal passage. Winds may
gust as high as 45-50 knots primarily for KRWL and KLAR before
decreasing slightly after 06Z. Also decided to include smoke in the
prevailing conditions for KCDR as weather cameras show a
considerable smoke plume with the South Fork fire located upstream.
Will continue to monitor visibilities and will amend the KCDR TAF if
necessary.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Friday for WYZ417-418-430>433.
     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ110.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Friday for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...NB