Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

873
FXUS65 KCYS 061003
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
403 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers will come to an end from north to south this
  morning. Slushy, icy, or slick conditions will affect the
  Wednesday morning commute in some areas.

- Winds will increase tonight in the wind prone areas of
  southeast Wyoming, then spread elsewhere Thursday.

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday
  afternoon and evening will have the potential to produce gusty
  and erratic winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Snow showers continue to move across the I-80 corridor this morning,
but we are nearing the end of this long duration late season snow
event. GOES water vapor imagery shows the axis of the upper level
shortwave moving from north to south across central Wyoming at this
time. Drier air aloft is already moving into our northern counties,
but moisture and lift remain in place further south. The trough axis
should clear through the area between about 6am and 9am, bringing
snow activity to an end. A cold airmass is firmly in place this
morning, but the cloud cover over most of the area is keeping
temperatures from dropping below the mid 20s to lower 30s and in
most areas. The center of this cold surface high pressure system
will move across the area today, keeping temperatures well below
seasonal averages. Skies will clear form north to south, but most
will see some sunshine by the end of the day today. As such,
temperatures should warm above yesterday`s highs. Laramie and
Cheyenne will be the coldest, with highs in the upper 40s, but all
other areas should reach the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Since we are in the midst of a very wintry weather pattern this
week, it is only fitting that we will also have to talk about high
winds. The aforementioned surface high pressure will get abandoned
over the interior Rockies tonight. This will be enhanced by clear
skies and plentiful radiative cooling over the fresh snowfall in
north central Colorado. Meanwhile, the western ridge will recover
and transition the area into a progressive northwest flow pattern. A
fast moving upper level shortwave will push into the northern
Rockies tonight. This will be accompanied by a surface trough, and
as a result, we can expect to see surface pressure over the High
Plains dropping rapidly. Thus, the pressure gradient across the area
will strengthen this evening and into Thursday morning, peaking
around 3am to 6am. This potential wind event appears to be entirely
surface driven, and parameters aloft and at 700-mb are unimpressive.
Surface driven events are rare this time of year, which reduces
confidence. Surface pressure gradients are sufficient to produce
high winds in some models, but not in others. Both in-house and NBM
guidance gives approximately a 40% chance for high winds at each of
the typical wind prone spots in southeast Wyoming. There is a little
uncertainty in how the new snow will respond to the slightly warmer
temperatures and limited sunshine today, but patchy blowing snow was
introduced to the official forecast. If we get more sunshine than
expected, that could remove the threat for blowing snow by wetting
the snow and allowing it to bond to itself. Confidence was not high
enough to a High Wind Watch this morning, but we will need to
continue to minor this.

Northwest flow will spread into the High Plains quickly Thursday
morning, setting up a fairly windy day across the area. Temperatures
will recover to near or slightly above seasonal averages. We will be
right back into a more typical spring-like weather pattern. This
will still be a very progressive pattern though. The shortwave
trough mentioned above will arrive Thursday afternoon, and provide
some forcing for large scale ascent. Instability in the ballpark of
300 to 800 J/kg SBCAPE may be present over the High Plains, with
moderately steep lapse rates and fairly good moisture. Shear will be
unidirectional, but around 20 to 40 knots. As a result, the synoptic
lift should be able to kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms,
which will move quickly from northwest to southeast. These storms
could produce gusty and erratic winds. A few gusts over 60 mph
cannot be ruled out. These storms will be moving quickly, which will
temper hopes for widespread beneficial rainfall. Still, brief
moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected, with highly localized
rainfall amounts in the 0.1 to 0.25" range anticipated. This
activity will likely continue well into the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026

A progressive northwest flow pattern will remain over the area
through the weekend. This will be driven by a persistent ridge
over the West Coast and troughing over the Great Lakes region.
Temperatures should remain close to seasonal averages each day,
with breezy conditions continuing. Winds will tick up on Friday
night into Saturday as the next upper level shortwave trough
makes its way through the area. We have another 20 to 40% chance
for high winds in the wind prone areas with this feature, and
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms over the High
Plains.

The ridge will shift eastward early next week, sending temperatures
up for Monday. This may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday as
well, but ensembles differ in their handling of another upper
level shortwave riding over the top of the ridge. About half of
LREF members bring this feature through far enough south to
knock temperatures down to near average for Tuesday, while the
others keep the feature to the north, which would lead to a
continuation of temperatures 10 to 20F above seasonal average.
The warming trend will also likely increase fire weather
concerns. While the recent rain and snow will probably be able
to kick start a decent greenup in the I-80 corridor, those to
the north remain quite parched with fuels ready to burn.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Snow showers continue to move through the southern portion of
the area. CYS, LAR, and RWL should oscillate between MVFR and
IFR through early Wednesday morning. SNY could see a drop into
MFR to IFR as well, but confidence is lower there. Conditions
will begin to improve after sunrise. All terminals should reach
VFR by noon Wednesday and remain there for the rest of the TAF
period. Winds may begin to increase by the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for
     WYZ103>106-109-112-119.
     Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT today for WYZ110-114-116-
     117.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for WYZ115-
     118.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for NEZ054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN