Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

491
FXUS65 KCYS 221103
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
503 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Freeze Warning remains in effect through 9AM this morning
  for portions of Carbon and Albany Counties.

- Warmer conditions anticipated Friday with partly to mostly
  cloudy skies and minimal precipitation chances.

- A warming trend will carry through Memorial Day weekend, with
  near record high temperatures possible by Monday.

- Isolated high-based showers and storms will be possible each
  day over the long weekend but rainfall will be limited.
  Rainfall potential will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 118 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

The upper-level trough that brought severe weather to the CWA
yesterday is slowly continuing its northeastward journey into
northern portions of the High Plains. Zonal flow aloft will develop
this morning as the short-wave trough continues northeastward. Zonal
flow continues aloft through mid-morning before the next upper-level
short-wave starts to push into western Wyoming, resulting in
southwesterly flow aloft across southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska. Most models are in good agreement with this second short-
wave being quite benign, expected to only increase cloud cover
across the region throughout the afternoon and evening hours.
Looking down at 500mb, vorticity advection will be neutral to
anticyclonic throughout the day today, with stronger vorticity
maxima not arriving into western Carbon County until 9PM this
evening and ejects eastward as the upper-level short-wave pushes
throughout overhead. 700mb flow shows a similar situation, with the
700mb low slowly wrapping up as it moves north-northeasterly across
western South Dakota. The trailing cold front has already moves
through much of the region tonight, though some isolated to
scattered precipitation remains possible near Chadron due to the
proximity of the strong lift associated with the surface and 700mb
lows. Any precipitation activity will not linger long as it advects
into South Dakota over the next 1 to 3 hours. Warm air advection at
700mb returns for this afternoon, with temperatures increasing from
the -6 to -3C range in the early morning hours to the -1 to 2C range
by this evening. Unfortunately, westerly flow will develop behind
the departing 700mb low, leading to modest downsloping along and
east of the Laramie Range. This downsloping is expected to limit
precipitation chances this afternoon, while also increasing surface
temperatures into the 50s and 60s once more. Strong, northwesterly
flow will continue at the surface throughout the day, leading to
breezy conditions across the region, but especially along and east
of the Laramie Range. Westerly, 700mb flow overnight tonight will
keep morning lows a bit warmer in the 30s and 40s. The best chance
for another frost or freeze will primarily be in the Laramie Valley
where temperatures are currently forecast to drop towards the 30 to
32F mark overnight tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 118 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

No major changes to the medium to long range forecast period. Please
see previous long range discussion...

After this trough pushes through into the Northern Plains on Friday,
a weak upper level ridge starts to build over the Intermountain
West. Southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle will largely be
dry this weekend as there will be limited vorticity and decent lift
to play with. However, some diurnal afternoon showers may be
possible, but mostly confined to the southern half of the forecast
area Saturday and Sunday. By Monday the synoptic pattern starts to
shift as a progged Low pressure system starts to push into Baja
California with another northern system to pushes into the Pacific
Northwest. This will push us into a southwest advecting in some
moisture from the Pacific and some dry air from the downsloping
winds off the mountains near the surface. As these two systems push
into United States the southern system almost gets absorbed by the
northern system to form this deep trough to kick start our wet
pattern again on Tuesday most likely in the afternoon. Thanks to our
summer sun, the synoptic set up of this deep trough will lead to
decent destabilization of the atmosphere and produce scattered
thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening. The models really start
to diverge with the synoptic pattern after Wednesday morning. The
GFS has a tilted ridge working its way into the Intermountain West
possibly drying us out or we can go with the Euro or Canadian that
have systems of varying intensities keep us rainy and stormy
throughout the week. It will be interesting to see how the models
trend past our Tuesday trough.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 503 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

A low cloud deck has settled over much of western Nebraska behind
the cold front and is currently impacting KBFF, KCDR, and KAIA, with
KSNY just on the edge of the deck. MVFR ceilings are anticipated to
continue for the next 1 to 3 hours in western Nebraska. There is the
potential for KSNY to see some of these lower clouds as satellite
currently shows the southern flank of clouds starting to extend
towards KSNY. Included a TEMPO group for MVFR ceilings due to lower
confidence in the MVFR ceilings sticking around. Partly cloudy skies
will return for the late-morning hours.

Gusty winds are ongoing across much of the area and are expected to
continue through much of the 12Z TAF period. Light, variable winds
are currently anticipated to return between 02 and 05Z overnight
tonight. There is a small chance for a lingering shower or two to
impact KCDR, so a PROB30 group stands for the time with the highest
likelihood of precipitation returning.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for WYZ104-105-
     109>111-113-115-116.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...MM/AM
AVIATION...AM