Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

671
FXUS65 KCYS 111150
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
550 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and warmer weather will prevail through Wednesday,
  with thunderstorms possibly returning late this the week.

- Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions possible
  over east central Wyoming and the northern Nebraska Panhandle
  Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Quiet weather and warm temperatures expected at the start of the
work-week as models continue to show a broad ridge axis aloft
moving over the Front Range this morning. 700mb temperatures
are forecast to climb above 10c for the whole area, which
translates to afternoon high temperatures in the upper 70s to
upper 80s. The lowest elevations of western Nebraska may see
highs around 90 with dry westerly winds. A few (daily) record
high temperatures are expected, mainly over the Nebraska
Panhandle in addition to Rawlins. Most other locations should
get within a few degrees of the daily record high. Otherwise, Other
than some fire weather concerns, pleasant weather is expected
today with no changes to the previous forecast.

Models continue to show a shallow cold front moving in from the
north late Monday evening and Monday night, resulting in
slightly cooler temperatures across the region. Little to no
precipitation expected with FROPA with the only moisture
advection remaining near the surface. High temperatures will be
around 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to today, but still
remaining about 10 degrees above average for mid May. Typically,
it would be relatively chilly Tuesday night behind the front
with clear skies. However, all models show quick WAA as another
ridge axis builds across the Rocky Mountain Region. This will
keep low temperatures above average for this time of the year
with a very low chance for frost/freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

An upper level ridge will be centered over the New Mexico and
Colorado area with an axis extending north over our area and into
Canada. This kind of pattern should favor dry and clear conditions
for much of our area. The daytime mixing of the boundary layer will
dry out the surface while sinking air from the ridge will heat up
the surface. Sampling the GFS model during the afternoon hours of
Wednesday is indeed showing these conditions with a nearly 50 degree
spread in surface temperatures and dew point temperatures. Maximum
temperature will be flirting with daily record highs in some spots
with widespread 80s and 90s. Relative humidities will drop into the
teens and even single digits for areas in Carbon County. Surface
trough development is being depicted in global models just to our
north. During the afternoon a corridor of stronger flow to the
southwest of this low will collocate with the driest conditions in
Carbon and Albany Counties that afternoon. Sustained winds of 30 mph
and higher gusts may be possible, though these details are murky
being a few days out and depending on the strength of the surface
low. Overnight humidity recoveries are expected to be poor for
locations west of the Laramie Range. Regardless the pattern does
favor elevated fire weather concerns at a minimum and interests
should monitor conditions and forecasts for Wednesday and the next
following days.

Thursday continues the dry conditions of Wednesday. We do see some
monsoonal type moisture funneling in from the Gulf of California and
the East Pacific that could be enough to create isolated showers and
thunderstorms. PoPs are not high with current forecasts calling for
around 20% chances at most. GEFS members give about a 20-40% chance
of some areas in the CWA receiving 0.05" of rainfall. Given the
fairly dry conditions at the surface most precipitation will
evaporate on its way down from cloud level. The ridge axis that had
been parked overhead the last few days should start to slide
southeast, but dry and warm conditions will continue. Daytime
temperatures may climb into the mid to upper 80s for areas east of
the Laramie Range, with a slight cooling for the interior mountain
regions. Relative humidity values remain low, in the teens, so fire
weather concerns continue.

About this time a compact, high amplitude negatively tilted trough
will be making its way in from the northwest. Compared to
yesterday`s guidance, the placement of this trough is trending
southward and slower. The surface low that forms Wednesday may be
tugged south to met this upper level trough during the day Thursday
and Friday. We will likely remain on the dry side of this surface
low. With the southward position of the upper level feature our high
wind chances have decreased for Thursday, but gusty winds are still
likely. Additionally, thunderstorm chances do not seem to have
gotten better with this placement given the shut-off of surface
moisture under the favorable portions of the jet, though details are
still uncertain at this range. There was a slight increase in storm
potential from machine learning models for the Nebraska Panhandle
for what it is worth. The most likely outcome is a capped
environment there.

Friday through the weekend portion of this outlook are appearing
cooler following the departure of the upper level system. Another
ridging pattern may setup for Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions
continue with daytime humidity minimums dropping below 20%.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Upper level ridge axis will build over the region today before a
shallow dry cold front moves south across the region late this
evening and tonight, with winds shifting into the north.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will continue over the next
24 hours. Occasionally gusty winds up to 25 knots possible over the
western Nebraska terminals, with frequent gusts of ~30 knots for the
southeast Wyoming terminals this afternoon. Winds will shift into
the north behind the cold front tonight and become gusty at times.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...TJT