Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

794
FXUS65 KCYS 120525
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1025 PM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The long duration high wind event will continue Thursday with
  winds slowly diminishing Thursday night. More high winds
  possible for the wind prones Friday into Saturday morning.

- Arctic cold front will brush eastern Wyoming and the northern
  Nebraska Panhandle late Friday and Friday night. Much colder
  temperatures and some light snow possible as far west as the
  Interstate 25 corridor into Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

High winds continue in the short term, with all zones currently in a
High Wind Warning already verifying. Winds remain strongest in the
usual southeast Wyoming wind prones with gusts of almost 80 MPH
being observed. Wind prone adjacent areas have also seen their fair
share of gusts over 65 MPH. High winds will continue through the
afternoon, but will start to weaken early this evening as a cold
front pushes across the area. The front will turn winds more
northerly, effectively shutting off high winds. Most High Wind
Warnings end at 5 PM this evening with the exception of Arlington
and the South Laramie Range. MSLP gradients will still remain
elevated in these areas with 50 kts winds aloft and some subsidence.
High winds will likely not be frequent in these areas overnight nor
will we see the magnitude of gusts observed over the last several
days. Behind the front, precipitation will likely move into some of
the northern zones of the CWA. The coldest, or arctic air of the
front will likely be along a line extending from Bill in Converse
County southeast to Alliance in Box Butte County. Along this line
and north is also the area that is expected to see some
precipitation from this front overnight. Snow accumulations look to
be light given that the airmass is quite cold and the CWA will be at
the edge of the moisture plume.

Some lingering snow showers could be possible throughout the day in
the aforementioned area as the arctic air boundary remains
stationary. Models are in pretty good agreement with holding the
boundary on that Bill to Alliance line, however, would not be
surprised to see that boundary sag a little bit further south into
the North Platte River Valley, bringing the colder temperatures with
it. Highs on Friday north of this boundary will be quite cold with
ample cloud cover. Highs in the 20s and 30s can be expected. The
rest of the CWA will see cooler temperatures but not nearly as cold
as the northeast corner of the forecast area. High temperatures in
southeast Wyoming will still be about 10 to 15 degrees above
average, thanks to some continued blustery conditions. Highs in
the 40s and 50s can be expected. The southern Nebraska
panhandle will see temperatures closer to average with highs in
the 40s. High Wind Warnings for Arlington and the South Laramie
Range expire at 5 AM on Friday, however, the potential is there
for high winds to continue through the day Friday and even into
Saturday morning. Parameters for high winds do definitely
weaken during the day Friday, but winds in the wind prones will
still be borderline. Variables like height gradients, 700 mb
winds and subsidence remain elevated enough that marginal high
winds cannot be ruled out in Arlington and the South Laramie
Range. It may be worth extending the current Warning for these
zones through Saturday morning, but an argument can be made for
issuing another round of High Wind Warnings starting Friday
night.

Friday night, a weak upper-level disturbance will move across the
CWA, strengthening MSLP gradients and increasing winds aloft up to
almost 60 kts. High wind chances look better for both Arlington and
the South Laramie Range with in-house guidance suggesting 60 to 80
percent probabilities of high winds occurring. Hi-Res guidance also
suggests wind gusts over 60 MPH during this time in the usual wind
prones. Additional High Wind Warnings could be needed for Bordeaux,
though some models show the winds too northwesterly to take
advantage of the gap area. Will also have to keep an eye on the
South Laramie Range foothills and central Laramie County for
potential High Wind Warnings Friday night through Saturday
morning. Decided to hold off an issuing anything quite yet as
parameters still look quite marginal with in-house guidance for
these zones showing low probabilities for high winds.

Saturday, another push of cold air will turn winds more northerly,
finally shutting off the prolonged wind machine. Even the southeast
Wyoming wind prones will finally see the end to the barrage of
tropical storm to hurricane force winds. The stagnant jet streak
that was over the CWA will finally push off to the east, leaving
behind some colder, but calmer conditions. High temperatures on
Saturday will be nearly identical to Friday, albeit a few degrees
cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

Ensemble clusters show strong synoptic agreement through the weekend
into Monday afternoon when scenarios diverge and become more
dependent upon the evolution of an incoming Pacific Northwest trough
and how much the western ridge dissipates as an upper low cuts
across Mexican/US border early in the week. Overall a deamplifying
ridge through the weekend with retreating high pressure will lead to
temporarily cooler temps Friday and Saturday but as faster zonal
flow develops atop the crest of the ridge by Sunday warming temps
and a high plains downslope airmass will take hold pushing daily
highs into the 50s and even low 60s east of I25 through Wednesday.
By Wednesday evening that previously mentioned Pacific Northwest
trough should be moving across the high plains states of Montana and
the Dakotas with an attendant cold front progged to push south,
bringing temps back closer to seasonal averages along the front
range for the later portion of the week. By the end of the week most
clusters maintain some degree of zonal flow aloft with the ridge
axis centered overhead but some push the ridge axis slightly further
east into the plains with SW flow aloft harboring better potential
for high elevation snows Wednesday and beyond.

Coincident with the expected mid to late week front will be
increasing height gradients across southeast Wyoming that could end
our brief (and enjoyable) break from the high winds. Currently
looking to be more of a threat for the typically wind prone areas on
Wednesday/Thursday but we will continue to monitor other less prone
areas for any needed headlines when appropriate.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

Generally VFR conditions across a majority of the terminals for this
TAF period, with exceptions across the Nebraksa Panhandle, where
CIGs may drop to MVFR tonight into tomorrow morning as a system
passes to the north. VIS reductions may be possible for KCDR in
light snow as the system passes to the north. Gusty winds should
continue to subside, and as such, KLAR and KCYS may see LLWS through
21Z Friday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for WYZ110-116.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...RZ