Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

334
FXUS65 KCYS 071104
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
404 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warnings are in effect for the typical wind prone
  areas of southeast Wyoming starting this afternoon.

- High Winds expected to occur in three phase, with minimal
  downtime between each phase.

- Warming trend through the start of the week, before the next
  system moves in mid-week.

- The probability for a significant and widespread wind event on
  Thursday and/or Friday continues to increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Quieter weather returns to the region this weekend through at least
mid-week, with only strong winds expected Saturday through Monday
and no precipitation chances until Wednesday. The upper-level trough
is departing this region this morning with upper-level water vapor
imagery showing the main trough axis along a line from about Rapid
City, SD, southwest through Salt Lake City, UT, and slowly advancing
southeasterly. The trough axis should clear the CWA by mid-morning,
lead to northerly flow aloft returning as the upper-level ridge to
the west tilts eastward. The ridge as a whole does not look to move
much, with a low to the east, the upper-level pattern across the
western CONUS looks like an Omega Block trying to setup today and
remaining in place through mid-week. Usually, a setup like this
would lead to mostly benign weather across the CWA, upper-level
zonal flow will push the apex of the ridge to the south and lead to
zonal, westerly, upper-level flow through about Wednesday morning.
While the overall weather will be quieter than Friday, a prolonged
high wind event will setup this afternoon through at least Monday
afternoon. With zonal flow remaining in place for the work week,
several other high winds events look likely, potentially lead to a
very warm and windy week, especially across southeast Wyoming.

The primary threat for high winds this weekend through the start of
the week will be Saturday morning through Monday morning, starting
with Arlington Saturday morning and impacting all the wind prones by
Saturday evening. This prolonged event is expected to occur in three
phases, the first on Saturday afternoon/evening with a surface
pressure gradient driven event, then an increasing surface pressure
gradient with strong 700mb wind event Sunday morning/afternoon, and
the final being the strong combination of strong pressure gradients,
strong 700mb flow, and strong downward omega event late Sunday night
through the morning on Monday. No changed were made to the High Wind
Warnings, especially since minimal downtime is expected between each
of the three phases playing out.

Phase one begins later this morning through the afternoon hours at
Arlington/Elk Mountain as surface pressure gradients increase to 3-
4mb across the Arlington wind prone region and 700mb winds remain
fairly weak, around 40kts at peak strength early this evening.
Downward omega values are progged to be fairly strong, leading to
downward acceleration of winds and, therefore, strong wind gusts at
and near Arlington. Craig to Casper gradients will be a bit on the
weaker side, only between about 50 and 60m through the evening. In-
house random forest guidance suggests 60+% probability of high winds
at Arlington, further increasing confidence for a gradient-driven
event this afternoon. Wind gusts at Arlington up to 65mph will be
expected with this first phase, with Bordeaux, the Summit, and
Foothills likely remaining in the 40 to 50mph range this afternoon,
starting to increase for Phase 2 in the evening and overnight hours.

Phase two starts later tonight through the overnight hours and into
the afternoon hours Sunday. 700mb flow will begin to strengthen
later tonight as a 700mb low over Canada moves further south,
increasing height gradients across much of the Intermountain West
and Pacific Northwest. The 700mb jet across the Laramie Range
increases to around 50kts in response to the increasing height
gradients by early Sunday morning, between 2 and 5 AM. Surface
pressure gradients remain very strong across the CWA, as a high over
western Colorado strengthens and a low strengthens across southern
Canada, increasing pressure gradients as far south as northern
Colorado. This phase will be one of the stronger two phases, with
more locations potentially seeing high winds. Surface pressure
gradients across the Arlington zone remain around 3 to 4mb Sunday
evening into the overnight hours, with Craig to Casper gradients
increasing into the low-60s overnight. Surface pressure gradients
across the Laramie Range near Bordeaux and the I-80 Summit will be
stronger, likely between about 4 and 5mb, resulting in very strong
surface winds, likely gusting 75+mph. Elevated downward omega values
will help mix down 700mb winds, helping surface pressure gradient-
driven winds increasing as downslope acceleration comes into play as
well. In-house random forest guidance keeps about a 80% chance for
high winds at Arlington and about a 60% change at Bordeaux,
increasing confidence in the wind event continuing through Sunday.

The final phase will combine all of the features we typically look
for with high winds, resulting in it also being the other of the two
strongest events, especially near Bordeaux, starting late Sunday
night and continuing through Monday afternoon. Late Sunday night,
the most zonal upper-level flow is expected to develop, leading to
vertical stacking of stronger, zonal winds from 250mb down through
the surface. 700mb height gradients will remain very elevated as
cooler air pushes southwards, dipping heights down to the north
while keeping them similar to the south. A 55 to 60kt 700mb jet is
expected to remain in place across the Laramie Range, with a 700mb
terrain-induced trough. Very strong surface pressure gradients
continue Sunday night through Monday as the surface high over
western Colorado strengthens and the surface low over southern
Canada continues to strengthen and move eastward. The cold front
associated with this low will increase surface pressure across the
Northern Plains through Monday morning. With the CWA and wind prones
sandwiched between two highs and having the lowest pressure between
the two systems, surface pressure gradients will remain high. At the
peak, the surface pressure gradient across the Arlington zone will
be about 4 to 5mb, with similar gradients expected across the
Laramie Range and the other zones. Downward omega values will be
elevated again for the final phase of this event, adding downward
acceleration to this breezy equation. Combining all of the features,
strong winds will continue, likely gusting 75+mph throughout the
period as well. The biggest difference with this final phase is the
potential for strong, 700mb winds to spread eastward along with the
best downward omega values. Wind prone-adjacent areas could see high
winds with this final phase, namely central and eastern Laramie
County, eastern Platte County, and potentially as far east as
Kimball County in Nebraska. 750mb winds across central and eastern
Laramie County, as well as eastern Platte County, are expected to
increase up to 55 to 60kts late Sunday night, with downward omegas
also pushing east, likely adding downward acceleration to the mix
for these areas. In-house guidance suggests about a 20% chance for
high winds in Cheyenne, and with this model we typically look for
about 25% probability due to fewer number of training cases.
Therefore, an eastward expansion of the High Wind Warning may be
needed for the final phase of the event, but decided not to expand
at this time due to some uncertainty. The highest uncertainty will
be for western portions of the Panhandle, namely Scotts Bluff County
souther through Kimball County, where 800mb winds are expected to
increase to around 50kts, but downward omega values are not as
impressive and, therefore, may not bring enough energy down to get
high wind criteria. This will be something to watch over the next
several days.

With highs winds comes warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Today
will be the coolest day in the short term forecast period, with
highs only in the low-40s to mid-50s across the region. Some
uncertainty in maximum temperature exists for the Nebraska Panhandle
this afternoon due to the speed at which the snowpack melts. If the
snowpack starts melting quicker, highs in the mid-50s to potentially
upper-50s would be expected. With a slower melting of the snowpack,
cooler temperatures would be expected across the Panhandle. Nudged
temperatures across the Panhandle down, due to a slightly higher
likelihood of the snowpack taking longer to melt this morning into
the afternoon hours. A warming trend returns Sunday through Monday
with highs expected to be in the low-50s to upper-60s Sunday, mid-
50s to low-70s Monday, and low-50s to low-60s on Tuesday as a broad,
upper-level trough starts to dip towards the region. Overall,
expecting a warmer than average weekend and start of the week with
limited to no precipitation expected until Wednesday onwards.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

As these two systems push off to the east Tuesday into
Wednesday, the intermountain west may see the pressure gradient
slightly relax and cause a mid level jetstream de-acceleration
and temporarily suspend our high winds. However the jet will
still maintain a speed of 45 to 50 knots giving us possibly
elevated winds but its still a little uncertain if we will reach
possible high wind criteria during this time as the global
omega fields due suggest some maintaining of subsident flow over
our wind prone areas. To further cement the idea that the
gradient will relax enough to prevent high winds is the
expansion of stronger rising motion across our forecast area as
the subsident flow is shown to weaken across our wind prones.
Our in house algorithm does also agree with this meteorological
ideology as it maintains a 60 percent probability for elevated
winds instead of High winds like the previous days. However,
given we are still in westerly flow aloft the Intermountain west
is prone to the development of strong mountain waves from that
direction which still may give us high winds despite the lack of
support from the jetstream itself. A brief ridge does push into
the Intermountain West at this time which does generally help
weaken the mountain wave potential while maintaining our warmer
weather. From Thursday through the weekend, the ridge becomes
more broad and less amplified as it dominates the Southwestern
United states behind the earlier southern low pressure system
continuing to push east into the Gulf region. Meanwhile another
system (another one) pushes itself through the Canadian
Providences from the Pacific Northwest. This arrival of a new
system compresses the gradient against the broad ridge
rejuvenating the high winds over the Intermountain west with the
700mb jet ramping up to 70 knots. So another high wind warning
may come into existence later this week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR condition expected through the 12Z TAF period for almost all
terminals. KRWL could see some low-level clouds briefly move in
and out through for the next few hours. Included a FEW010 group
to show this potential. Winds pick up through the morning hours
with gusty conditions throughout the day. Most terminals will be
gusting between 25 and 35 kts throughout the day. Skies remain
mostly clear from about 16Z onwards.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MST Monday
     for WYZ106-116-117.
     High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM MST Monday
     for WYZ110.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...MM/AM
AVIATION...AM