Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

496
FXUS65 KCYS 051755
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1055 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of accumulating snow is expected Thursday
  evening into Friday night. Uncertainty remains regarding
  forecast snow totals.

- Gusty winds are expected Friday in the wake of a cold front.
  This will lead to blowing snow concerns in areas receiving
  snow Thursday night and Friday.

- The pattern will shift to mostly dry and above normal
  temperatures after Saturday and persist through the start of
  next week with high winds possible during this time as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 256 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

One more mild day expected across most of the CWA today before the
next storm system arrives to cool down temperatures for the
remainder of the week. South to southwest flow ahead of the incoming
trough will keep 700 mb temperatures east of the Laramie Range
around 0C. As a result, high temperatures will climb into the 60s
with a few locations in the Nebraska panhandle potentially reaching
the low 70s! Temperatures west of the Laramie Range will be a
bit cooler as the cold front associated with next storm system
begins to push into the western part of the CWA during the
morning hours. High temperatures here will primarily be in the
40s with perhaps areas of the Laramie Valley reaching the low
50s. During the afternoon hours lee cyclogenesis will take place
in east-central Colorado as the trough swings into the Rockies.
As a result, some showers will likely develop later in the
afternoon. Showers on the east side of the Laramie Range will
initially be rain, while snow is more likely out west.

Precipitation will become more widespread Thursday night. Although
the cold front will likely be through the CWA by Thursday evening,
temperatures will be slow to cool off, meaning the transition from
rain to snow will likely be gradual. The Interstate 25 corridor will
likely transition over to snow by midnight, while the Nebraska
panhandle will transition by sunrise on Friday. Surface low track
based on cluster analysis of the GFS and ECMWF show good agreement
through Thursday night, but more uncertainty is possible during the
day Friday as ensemble members are split between a more easterly
track vs. southeast track.

Based on previous model runs, precipitation amounts have definitely
trended downward. The eastward/southeastward track of the low moves
the bulk of precipitation further south into Colorado. Regardless,
this storm still looks like it will bring widespread accumulating
snowfall to the CWA. Winter Weather Advisories are still valid as
Advisory level snowfall amounts are still forecast across much of
southeast Wyoming. Decided to not make any changes to the current
Winter Storm Watches as Hi-Res guidance is much different from
global models in this area. While ensembles are pretty consistent
with generally 2 to 4 inches across much of southeast Wyoming, Hi-
Res guidance like the HRRR, does potentially show low-end Winter
Storm Warning amounts between Laramie and Cheyenne, including both
cities. Good northerly upslope flow on the backside of the surface
low could support roughly 6 inches of snow in these areas. Given the
uncertainty and only recent uptick in snowfall amounts from Hi-Res
guidance decided to leave the Winter Storm Watches as is to allow
for at least another few model cycles. Outside of these areas,
winter headlines may also need to be considered for central Laramie
County. Totals in the Nebraska panhandle will be highest in the Pine
Ridge area due to the upslope flow. Areas outside of this can
generally expect a half to 2 inches of accumulation. Most
accumulation in the CWA will happen late Thursday night through
Friday morning. Snow will taper off Friday afternoon with lingering
snow showers possible through the evening hours. Cannot rule out
areas of blowing and drifting snow during the day Friday as 30 to 40
MPH wind gusts are expected behind the surface low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 400 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

At the start of the long term, a benign weather pattern will settle
in across the region as a system that impacted our CWA the day
prior exits off to the east. As we progress through Monday, we dry
out and remain dry as precipitation chances are minimal with the
upper-level pattern becoming zonal. Then, a pattern change is
possible Tuesday as a shortwave drops south, increasing
precipitation chances and leading to cooler temperatures, more on
that later. As of now, most of the precipitation associated with
this system should remain all rain at lower elevations and snow in
the higher terrain. There maybe a short window of the rain
transitioning to snow Tuesday night, but at this time there should be
minimal to no snow accumulations at the lower elevations. Now, lets
take a look at temperatures, with a fresh blanket of snow across the
CWA, expect slightly cooler temperatures to continue into Saturday.
Thereafter, a warming trend will ensue Sunday as 700mb temps
increase into the 2 to 4 degree C range. These temperatures will
remain in place through Monday, then with a front diving south
Tuesday, cooler temperatures will once again make a return. So, we
don`t live at 700mb, what does this all mean at the surface? Well,
expect highs to climb into the mid 30s west of I-25 and 40s to low
50s east of the corridor on Saturday. Temperatures will warm Sunday
into Monday as highs soar into the upper 40s to low 50s west of I-25
and low to upper 60s to the east, warmest across the Nebraska
Panhandle. By Tuesday, a cooling trend will round out the long term
period.

Switching to winds, expect windier conditions to make a return to
our wind prones across southeast Wyoming Sunday through Wednesday. A
700mb jet will dive south, increasing mid-level winds to near 65
knots Sunday afternoon/evening. These winds will mix down to the
surface as sinking air aloft sets up, negative Omega (GFS). There
will be some variance in strength through Wednesday, but expect the
windy conditions to continue from Sunday. All this coupled with our
in-house guidance, there is a 80% chance of high winds along I-80
near Arlington late Saturday though Sunday night and along I-25 at
Bordeaux. High wind probabilities decrease through the remainder of
the forecast period. As of now, in-house guidance has probabilities
of high winds in Cheyenne generally less than 20% for the
aforementioned duration.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1041 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Ceilings are going to have a steep gradient between SKC, BKn070,
and then bkn025/030. There will be some holes in the sky that I
tried to time out for the Southeast Wyoming terminals in the
first 6 hours but according to observations and satellite clouds
look to be between 3,000 and 5,000ft. For the Wyoming terminals
rain looks to start between 22z and 0z and after 02z for the
Nebraska terminals mainly KBFF and KCDR. These shower will be
intermittent at times in the beginning. Low MVFR to IFR can be
expected by 15z tomorrow as the precipitation should be snow for
all terminals by that time. Winds will shift to the north
behind the front and i expect to be variable right before it.
With the cold airmass dropping down on us tonight the freezing
level is roughly going to be at or near the surface for the
Wyoming sites and maybe a little higher for our Nebraska
terminals. Snow accumulations could be a couple inches depending
on when the rain turns into snow later tonight after 06z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight MST
     Friday night for WYZ103-106-110-112-114-115.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM MST
     Friday for WYZ104-109.
     Winter Storm Watch from 8 PM MST this evening through Friday
     evening for WYZ116-117.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...MM