Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

834
FXUS65 KCYS 220545
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1045 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple arctic cold fronts are expected to impact the
  forecast area through the end of the week and into the weekend.

- Much colder temperatures Thursday through Sunday, with the
  strongest shot of cold air expected Friday.

- Some accumulating snowfall possible Friday and Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 351 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

Current observations show that a cold front has just moved through
the CWA, with northerly winds and temperatures in the 30s behind it.
This is the first shot of cold air that will affect the forecast
area over the next 48 hours. This first cold front is rather dry,
with not much mid-level moisture present. However, there will be
some increasing high clouds later tonight. Winds behind the first
front will also ease through the remainder of the afternoon, leading
to a quiet overnight.

As expected, temperatures on Thursday will be much colder behind the
front. Highs will struggle to reach freezing for most cities as 700
mb temperatures hover in the negative teens. Dry conditions are
expected during the day, but clouds will increase during the
afternoon ahead of the approaching arctic front. Arctic air will
likely arrive by Thursday evening, bringing with it some light snow.
Winds behind the front will be rather weak, with surface winds
turning more easterly. These easterly winds will lead to upslope
flow across the eastern portion of the CWA, leading to light snow
during the overnight hours. Light snow accumulations generally under
an inch could be possible, mainly along and east of the Laramie
Range, including portions of the Nebraska panhandle. Temperatures
overnight will fall into the single digits, with below zero
temperatures likely in valleys and the northern Nebraska panhandle.

Arctic air will hang around through the day Friday with high
temperatures struggling to reach the teens for areas east of the
Laramie Range. Although winds will not be particularly strong under
the arctic airmass, even the slightest breeze will lead to bitterly
cold wind chills. Wind chills Friday morning could drop below -20F,
prompting the need for a future Wind Chill Advisory. Snow chances
increase during the day Friday with ensemble, Hi-Res, and
deterministic models showing the potential for accumulating snow.
Ensemble consensus from both the GFS and ECMWF show about an inch of
accumulation for most of the CWA, with Hi-Res guidance generally on
board with those totals. NBM shows slightly higher totals up to 2 to
3 inches which may not be out of the question with model
soundings showing saturated dendritic growth zones and perhaps
a hint of warm, moist air aloft overrunning colder air at the
surface. Snow will continue into the overnight hours Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 351 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

The long term starts quite chilly as an arctic airmass
overspreads the region and we see some light snow across much of
the CWA before ridging begins to take over and warm us up and
bring back chances of high winds. Overnight lows Friday night
into Saturday behind an arctic airmass will be bitter, into the
negatives with wind chills bringing us down into the negative
teens and twenties. With temperatures getting this cold, a few
locations will likely need Cold Weather Advisories. And highs
likewise will struggle to break out of the teens and single
digits. Meanwhile a weak slug of moisture should bring a chance
at snow, and while current totals are generally on the low side,
around 1-2 inches, some models indicate we could see some better
growth rates and perhaps a little more snow than forecast.
Still, don`t anticipate anything worthy of a stout winter storm,
but perhaps a surprise advisory could be in store.

Into the later part of the weekend and early next week, we`ll
see ridging taking over once again and pressure gradients and
the low level jet returning, meaning what else - high winds. In
house guidance is starting to ping a 40-80% probability of winds
58+ mph for our wind prone locations beginning Sunday morning
and continuing into the early week timeframe, and Craig to
Casper gradients are peaking in the 55-65 meter range while
700mb winds are reaching into the 60 knot range. Don`t be
surprised if our brief respite from strong winds is broken by
early next week. Otherwise the ridge will bring us into a dry
westerly flow pattern, with temperatures on the rise. Highs are
able to reach back up into the 20`s on Sunday, and then Monday
into Tuesday we should get back out of freezing during the
afternoon each day as highs return into the 40`s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

Primary forecast concern over the next 24 to 30 hours will be the
secondary arctic cold front, which is forecast to push south into
southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska this afternoon and this
evening. Any lowering CIGS or snowfall should hold off until after
06z Friday.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions expected over the next 24
hours with relatively quiet weather ahead of the secondary front.
Even winds will be tame as the arctic front will become stationary
for most of Thursday morning, and then slowly move south between 15z
and 21z. Clouds will gradually lower to 5000 feet agl over KCDR and
KAIA after 00z Friday. Snow will likely hold off until after 06z
Friday for these two terminals.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...TJT