Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

505
FXUS65 KCYS 281104
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
404 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warnings remain in effect for the wind prone
  locations through 11 AM Saturday morning.

- Red Flag Warnings have been expanded to include southern
  Converse County, and northern Platte and Goshen counties
  through 5PM Saturday evening.

- Precipitation chances start increasing Sunday morning and
  continue throughout most of the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

One more day of active weather before the region with see some
calmer weather on Sunday. The upper-level ridge over the western
CONUS will slowly move eastward before being absorbed into the
broader upper-level ridge developing over the Desert Southwest.
Northwesterly flow wil continue aloft, leading to another dry day
across the region with continued gusty winds. However, later this
evening into the overnight hours, a fairly strong band of 500mb
vorticity will start pushing into southwestern portions of the CWA
as a subtle 500mb shortwave traverses across southern portions of
the CWA. Further down at 700mb, height gradients will finally begin
to weaken later this morning with downward omega values decreasing
as well. Craig to Casper gradients will finally dip below 50m by 8
to 11 AM this morning, leading to the end of the high wind concerns
for the next several days. As gradients weaken and 700mb winds
switch to more westerly east of the Laramie Range, 700mb winds west
of the Laramie Range switch to southwesterly. This favors upslope
flow along the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges. Assisted by the 500mb
shortwave and cyclonic vorticity advection, precipitation chances in
the mountains start to increase very late tonight into very early
Sunday morning. Precipitation in the Sierra Madres looks to start
around 11PM tonight and continue throughout much of the next several
days. Snow accumulations do not look to be all that high at this
time, with the current forecast of only 4 to 6 inches in the
mountains through Monday evening. Temperatures will be warm once
again Saturday, with highs expected to be in the mid-50s to mid-60s
across the region.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this
afternoon across much of the region. Afternoon minimum humidity
values will drop into the 10 to 20% range with strong wind gusts
from ongoing downslope flow. The worst conditions look to be along
the I-80 corridor through the southern Panhandle. However, northern
portions of the region may also see critical fire weather conditions
with strong winds, namely along the I-25 corridor in Converse
County. Decided to add fire weather zone 418 to the Red Flag Warning
for this afternoon as critical conditions may develop this
afternoon. With how warm and dry it has been, it will not take much
to get a fire going and with breezy winds, rapid fire spread is
expected. Humidity recoveries Saturday night into Sunday morning
will be very good, likely into the 60-75% range. With additional
moisture moving into the region, critical fire weather conditions
will end Saturday evening. Elevated fire weather conditions are not
expected to return until mid-week.

On Sunday, the upper-level ridge starts to quickly accelerate off to
the east as an incoming upper-level trough pushes into the western
CONUS. Multiple lobes of 500mb vorticity will eject out ahead of
this trough and will continue to do so all day on Sunday, with the
main trough impacting the region Monday into Tuesday. 700mb flow on
Sunday will remain largely westerly along and east of the Laramie
Range and southwesterly west, suggesting continued upslope flow
along the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges. With surface flow also
remaining mostly southwesterly, continued snowfall is expected in
the mountains. However, the best moisture doesn`t arrive until mid-
day Sunday, so significant snowfall is not expected to begin until
then. A brief lull in the precipitation looks possible late Sunday
night into early Sunday morning ahead of the next push of upper-
level forcing Monday onwards. Temperatures Sunday will be warm
again, with highs in the low- to upper-50s area wide.

On Monday, the upper-level trough will start to approach the region,
leading to continued 500mb vorticity lobe ejection and increase
upper-level synoptic forcing. The best forcing looks to arrive
Monday evening throughout the day Tuesday. Monday afternoon, a 700mb
shortwave looks to propagate across northern portions of the CWA,
leading to brief increase in winds west the the Laramie Range. High
Winds are not expected given the fairly weak 700mb jet Monday
afternoon. For more information regarding Monday night into the day
Tuesday, please see the long term discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

No major changes. See previous discussion...

The work week will begin under the influence of a weak ridge located
downstream of a rather vigorous shortwave trough situated over
Northern California, resulting in a continuation of the anomalously
warm conditions across SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. There
is weak isentropic ascent located over our area Monday morning into
the afternoon, which is also reflected in the omega fields. 700 mb
flow remains quasi-zonal and forecast soundings indicate some dry
air in the low levels, so the Sierra Madre and Snowy ranges will be
the favored areas for QPF, although there will still be a chance for
a few rain or snow showers at lower elevations, though it may be
more of a virga event, resulting in more wind than precipitation.

Monday night into Tuesday is when we have the highest confidence of
seeing the majority of our precipitation, as there is some 700 mb
frontogenesis across Southern Wyoming helping to provide some
forcing for ascent, hence increasing our chances for more widespread
precipitation. The NBM has mean QPF ranging from 0.15-0.20 inches
for areas east of the I-25 corridor, whereas our mountain ranges
should see an additional 0.10 inches given the mid-level flow
regime. NBM probabilities of seeing 0.1 inches of liquid or greater
is a near certainty for the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges, whereas
east of the Laramie Range areas have a 50% shot at seeing QPF
exceeding this threshold. 50% probabilities also exist at achieving
WWA criteria for the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges, so stay tuned
for future updates as this event gets closer.

As this system is rather disorganized and the majority of the
synoptic-scale forcing for ascent is located well to our south over
Colorado, this event unfortunately won`t put much of a dent in our
ongoing drought conditions. On Tuesday, temperatures at lower
elevations are progged to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, so any
precipitation in extreme Eastern Wyoming and our Nebraska counties
will likely fall as rain.

On Wednesday high temperatures rebound into the mid to upper 50s for
areas east of the Laramie Range as a weak mid-level ridge builds in
ahead of the next shortwave trough, therefore conditions will remain
dry. Thursday our next system of interest should impact our area as
it moves in from the west. This system digs in more so from the
north compared to the system earlier in the week, so we can expect a
dip in our temperatures and increasing chances for beneficial
moisture for Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska. Our winds
will also ramp up at this time especially in the usual wind-prone
areas of Bordeaux and Arlington thanks to 40-50 knot 700 mb flow
rounding the base of the shortwave trough in addition to anafrontal
gradient flow as this system lifts to the north and east away from
our area. In-house guidance has maximum probabilities of around 50%
of seeing 60 mph gusts or greater in these areas, so while not as
impressive as what we have seen most recently, high winds will
return to the picture for the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with clear skies
turning partly cloudy to mostly cloudy throughout the evening. A
weak front will move through the region today, shifting winds to
be out of the north. Expecting the front to pass through all
terminals between 16 and 20Z. Precipitation chances increasing
late in the period.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ430>433.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for WYZ418.
     High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for WYZ106-110-
     116-117.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ436-437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...NB/AM
AVIATION...AM