Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

249
FXUS65 KCYS 302325
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through late Tuesday
  evening will bring the potential for strong, gusty, and
  erratic winds.

- A few more organized strong to severe storms are possible in
  the central and southern Nebraska panhandle through Tuesday
  night.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue for the week
  ahead with warm and dry weather expected and daily chances for
 PM thunderstorms or gusty showers.

- A warming trend will occur for Thursday and Friday, before
  somewhat cooler temperatures occur for our
  bisesquicentennial, the 250th anniversary of our country on
  Independence Day, then a slow warming trend develops again for
  Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue today across the area, but
fortunately, winds are much lighter than they were yesterday. Still,
near critical fire weather conditions are ongoing as another,
weaker, upper level shortwave approaches the area. This is apparent
on GOES satellite imagery over northeast Utah. As the upper level
feature lifts northward, a stalled convergence/frontal boundary over
our area is slowly lifting northward as well. This is currently
located roughly from Medicine Bow Peak up towards Wheatland and
eventually the southwest corner of South Dakota. Low-level
convergence along the boundary is supporting the development of some
cumulus cloud activity and a few pulsey showers showing up on radar.
Instability is minimal right now, so these are not lasting very
long, but we should see longevity of this activity improve after
about 4PM or so as synoptic lift ahead of the approaching shortwave
and upper level moisture improve.

Meanwhile, the approaching upper level disturbance is supporting lee
cyclogenesis over the Denver area this afternoon. As this moves off
to the northeast and strengthens, potent frontogenesis will develop
over northeast Colorado extending up into far southeast Wyoming and
the central/southern Nebraska panhandle. Positive moisture advection
in this same area will also build elevated instability. So, expect
these two areas (the convergence boundary, and the frontogenesis) to
be the primary zones of focus for shower and thunderstorm activity
this evening but a few will probably filter through in between. At
least initially, the dry surface environment will mean that the
primary hazard will be dry microbursts. Expect the coverage of gusty
and erratic winds to be significantly greater than the coverage of
appreciable rainfall. While these won`t technically be dry
thunderstorms, there will be areas exposed to winds and lightning
with little to no rainfall. Confidence is pretty high in gusty and
erratic winds this evening, but lower in the more organized severe
thunderstorm potential. The second area of forcing in the southern
Nebraska panhandle will see increasing moisture and instability this
evening. Therefore, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms
will be more likely to become strong to severe later in the evening.
However, this remains a fairly conditional threat. RAP forecast
soundings for Sidney show a fairly dry boundary layer until about
9PM, after which time, severe thunderstorm parameters climb rapidly.
However, dry air aloft and weakening forcing will begin to move into
the area as early as 12AM-1AM, so the window is fairly short.
Isolated large hail and locally heavy rainfall will be possible if a
storm manages to develop in this environment.

Wednesday will start off with clear skies as tonight`s vort-max
moves off to the northeast. The area will remain in southwest flow
aloft, and highs tomorrow are expected to be fairly close to their
values today. Synoptic wind is expected to be overall lighter
tomorrow, but gusty westerlies are still expected mainly in the
morning to early afternoon. Winds will die down later as humidity
drops, so confidence in critical fire weather conditions is lower
tomorrow. We will have another round of potential gusty showers or
storms in the afternoon and evening, but coverage will be lower than
today due to weaker forcing aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Thursday...The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma at
spc.noaa.gov, forecasts a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms in
the afternoon and evening, for our northeast counties in our county
warning area, north of a Sheridan to Scottsbluff line. Concur with
their assessment as a shortwave trough aloft passes near the Wyoming
and Colorado state line at peak heating, with a north to south
oriented surface boundary or dryline stretching across southeast
Wyoming. Although bulk shear values at 00Z will be limited, near 30
knots, CAPE progged to be some 2500 to 3600 J/kg across western
Nebraska. Quite impressive 850/700 mb theta-e ridge axis will extend
across western Nebraska at late afternoon with dewpoints in the mid
to upper 50s. Thus isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, some
strong to severe, look increasingly likely in the aforementioned
marginal risk area. A warming trend ensues with 700 mb temperatures
near 18 Celsius.

Friday...Although another weak perturbation, or shortwave trough,
will lie across western Nebraska in the late afternoon, with
adequate low and mid level moisture, the 850/700 mb theta-e ridge
axis will be a bit further east compared to Thursday, though we will
need to watch for decent low level convergence across the eastern
row of counties in the Nebraska Panhandle for isolated strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms. With less cloud cover compared to
Thursday, the warming trend will continue.

Independence Day...The flow aloft remains westerly, and with decent
moisture in the 850-500 mb layer, and individual layers, combined
with low level convergence east of I-25, we anticipate seeing
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
east of I-25 in the afternoon, and over western Nebraska in the
evening. All in all, the 250th anniversary of our country should see
quite pleasant weather conditions across southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska, with minimal late day showers and thunderstorms,
near perfect for outdoor activities. Somewhat cooler for the holiday
due to more cloud cover and in a post cold frontal airmass, with
maximum temperatures in the 80s, near perfect for the
bisesquicentennial, 250th anniversary of our country`s birth.

Sunday...With warm temperatures aloft, the CIN, convective
inhibition, will increase markedly with 700 mb temperatures near 18
Celsius, limiting convective potential, and allowing for at best,
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
along and east of I-25. Another warming trend begins based on
700 mb temperature trends.

Monday and Tuesday...Similar synoptic pattern to Sunday, with decent
southerly low level moisture advecting northward into our counties,
especially east of I-25, though warm temperature aloft will produce
enough convective inhibition, CIN, to limit afternoon and evening
thunderstorms to isolated to widely scattered. Temperatures will
continue their warming trend based on 700 mb temperatures and the
paucity, limited amount, of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are initiating and will move across the
CWA over the next several hours. Generally a line from Laramie to
Chadron and points east will have the best chances of seeing any of
the activity. The forcing mechanism lifting out of Colorado will
make it difficult on the exact path of these storms, so the TAFs
will be amended as needed. Hence the PROB30 groups, and by about 04Z
this evening, the activity should be winding down.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417-418-
     430>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RZ