Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

725
FXUS65 KCYS 202342
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
542 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler temperatures expected on Today and Monday behind
  a strong cold front.

- Strong winds will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning across the western Nebraska Panhandle with a stout
  low-level jet expected to develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 257 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Today will be the last day of consistently stormy weather across the
area as the low pressure center spins over Casper, WY. Storms are
already ongoing, thanks to the low pressure system pulling moist,
southerly flow into the mid-levels out ahead of it. With cooler
temperatures being observed today, that atmosphere is more stable,
making strong to severe storms less likely later today. Hi-Res
guidance still shows the potential for an isolated strong storm
or two, but model soundings from the GFS show an environment
with only about 500 to 700 J/kg of MUCAPE. This is enough
instability to get thunderstorms, but not strong ones. Showers
and storms will continue into the evening hours for locations in
the Nebraska panhandle as the low pressure system slowly spins
eastward into South Dakota. Once the system makes it east of the
CWA, wrap around moisture could produce a few light showers
overnight in the vicinity of the Pine Ridge from Lusk to
Chadron.

As the trough/low pressure system moves eastward into the center of
the country, shallow ridging will begin to build into the Rockies.
As a result, temperatures on Monday will be a few degrees warmer
compared to Sunday, but still cooler than average for this time of
year. The ridge will also help clear clouds out of the area, lead to
a partly to mostly sunny day across the forecast area. Precipitation
chances are not anticipated, however, a few lingering showers will
still be possible in the Pine Ridge area from the low pressure
system moving out. Overnight, winds will turn southeasterly,
ushering in low-level moisture with fog and low stratus potential in
the Nebraska panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

By Tuesday morning, there`s is an area of high
pressure that begins to form over the Great Lakes region as our
former low pressure system enters the Northern plains causing a
traffic jam over the east coast. This becomes our problem as the
ridge builds over us it blocks the weak low pressure system off the
west coast. Multiple shortwaves will be pushing through the
Intermountain west with the first one starting late Tuesday evening
through Wednesday morning for possible light rain showers. With the
later timing off this wave its going to be hard to maintain higher
energy levels needed for severe thunderstorms as the sun angle is
slowly starting to decline. Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
evening looks pretty dry as the Intermountain maintains southwest
flow on the front edge of the ridge advecting in the dry airmass of
the desert southwest. Thursday night into Friday morning another Low
pressure system is progged to push into the Pacific Northwest to
cause some light rain showers to possibly occur Friday. Daily high
temperatures will fluctuate as 700mb temperatures bounce between 6
and 12 degrees C. So on our dry days expect temperatures to range
between the 70`s and low 80`s to 60/70`s on our rainy days.
Overnight temperatures will remain relatively stable with the
overnight lows to remain in the 40`s to with some areas reaching the
low 50`s. This weekend is starting to trend warmer and drier with
the global models wanting to amplify the ridging pattern over us
shifting the potential Low pressure system from Friday further north
into the Canadian Provinces.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours for all Wyoming
terminals; a mix of all flight categories expected over the next
24 hours for Nebraska terminals, with the exception of KSNY
which should remain VFR through the period.

For Wyoming & KSNY - expect mid to high level clouds, with SCT
to BKN status this evening before becoming FEW to SKC overnight
into tomorrow. Breezy winds this evening will become 10 knots or
less overnight through tomorrow.

For remaining Nebraska terminals - Mid to low level clouds
continue this evening due to nearby showers and storms. These
should clear later this evening, but then low clouds will
overspread overnight through much of tomorrow morning alongside
some lingering precipitation, but thunderstorm chances should be
out of the region. All flight categories will continue to be
possible with IFR to LIFR possible as the lowest clouds build in
overnight, particularly for KCDR. Winds outside of any storms
remaining near sites tonight will be 10 knots or less through
the period.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...CG