Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

194
FXUS65 KCYS 312005
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
205 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally dense fog is possible Saturday night into Sunday
  morning for areas east of the Laramie Range.

- A complex but disorganized storm system will move into the
  area Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures and a chance for
  rain and high elevation snow showers.

- A second round of precipitation is increasingly likely to
  develop over portions of the High Plains Monday into Monday
  evening.

- Widespread blustery conditions are anticipated Monday into
  Tuesday along and east of the Laramie range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 156 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Looking at a not-so-spooky rest of Halloween with favorable
conditions for trick or treaters. Clouds are gradually decreasing
early this afternoon, leading to mild temperatures across the
forecast area. Highs in the 50s and 60s are expected, with
temperatures falling into the 40s and 50s this evening for the candy
seekers that will be out and about. Cannot rule out a stray
convective shower this afternoon and the early part of the evening
as sunshine helps build weak low-level instability. However, these
will be short-lived and will have little precipitation in them. The
rest of the night looks relatively uneventful aside from another
round of fog for areas east of the Laramie Range. Weak southerly
winds will once again increase low-level moisture, leading to the
potential for dense fog late tonight and into Sunday morning.

The following 48 hours will be much more active with widespread
precipitation chances. This two part system will bring
precipitation, wind, and cooler temperatures to the region. A potent
upper-level trough will begin to push into western Wyoming on
Sunday. Southwest flow ahead of this trough will advect ample
tropical moisture into the area, allowing PWATs to reach
climatological max per NAEFS guidance. Broad and weak forcing will
lead to predominately stratiform precipitation through most of the
day. Precipitation chances will be highest for areas along and west
of the Laramie Range, and along a line from Douglas to Chadron
northward. Areas outside of the aforementioned areas could still see
precipitation, however chances appear to be lower based on current
Hi-Res models. Precipitation during this "first wave" is expected to
fall as rain as it will arrive ahead of the cold front. Southwest
flow will actually help advect fairly mild 700 mb air into the area
ahead of the front. So despite the abundant cloud cover,
temperatures are still expected to reach the 50s and low 60s. There
will be a brief "lull" in precipitation early Sunday evening before
the cold front arrives.

The cold front will arrive Sunday night, gradually ushering in
cooler air. Simultaneously, leeside cyclogenesis will be
occurring in northeast Colorado, forming a surface low. Cluster
analysis from both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble are in good
agreement regarding surface low placement and track into the day
Monday. Once the surface low forms, precipitation will once
again become pretty widespread across the CWA overnight. Still
likely looking at mostly rain Sunday night as the cold air is
slower to arrive.

Monday, expect a colder day behind the front with temperatures in
the 40s for southeast Wyoming and low 50s for the Nebraska
panhandle. Temperatures could be cold enough to see some snow mix
with rain, but this will be dependent on the snow levels which are
still uncertain. However, at this point, cannot rule out snow levels
down to about 6000 feet. Heavier precipitation rates will also be
more likely to see the full switch from rain to snow. Higher
rates does come with the potential for some minor accumulations.
The mountains and higher elevation areas are still the areas
with the highest confidence in seeing accumulations. Lower
elevations west of the Laramie Range could see some minor
accumulations but uncertainty is high. Ensemble guidance from
both the GFS and ECMWF still have very few members latching on
to any accumulations for these valley locations. However, did
force some snow into the forecast for places like Laramie and
Rawlins since there is at least a decent chance of these cities
seeing a trace of snow. As the surface low tracks into central
Nebraska during the day Monday, the CWA will get into some good
wrap around moisture, leading to widespread precipitation
throughout the day. The location of the surface low will also
lead to a very strong MSLP gradient across the forecast area.
The strong gradient will lead to a very windy day Monday, with
blustery northwest winds. 50 to 55 MPH wind gusts are expected
for the Interstate 25 corridor and the eastern plains. Cannot
rule out high winds at this juncture, however, northwest winds
are typically not a favorable direction for high winds in the
CWA. Strong winds and precipitation will continue into Monday
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 156 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

As we start off the long term period, the region will be sitting
firmly under a trough aloft with a northerly flow regime overhead.
Shifting gears a bit to the surface, there will be a deep surface
low located to our northeast across southeast South Dakota. The
result of the placement of this surface feature will be a tight
northwest pressure gradient over the CWA causing surface winds to
become northerly to northwesterly along with residual moisture being
fed into the CWA. This will keep chances of precipitation, possibly
a few snow showers mixing in to our west across the Laramie Range
and later in the evening across the Nebraska Panhandle with little
to no snow accumulations expected through Monday night at lower
elevations. Higher elevations, north of 9,000 feet could see some
accumulating snowfall on the order of 1 to 3 additional inches
Monday afternoon/evening, especially across the Sierra Madre and
Snowy Ranges. Overall, QPF totals through Monday night look to be on
the order of a tenth to two tenths, highest across northern portions
of the Nebraska Panhandle, of an inch primarily north of I-80 and
east of I-25. As mentioned briefly above, the surface gradient will
tighten and this will cause the potential for strong winds Monday
night in the wake of the surface low and associated cold front.
Ensemble guidance supports to a degree wind gusts approaching or
exceeding 50 mph, primarily a swath along the I-80 corridor in the
Nebraska Panhandle. Due to weak subsidence, Omega (GFS), these
strong winds will be gradient driven at the surface due to the tight
pressure gradient that sets up over the area.

As we progress in this forecast period, the stronger winds will
diminish through Tuesday morning into the early afternoon hours as
the surface low slides off to the east, causing the surface gradient
to lax and winds to ease. Not only this, but drier conditions return
with weak ridging building in aloft by Tuesday afternoon. By
Wednesday, some model differences arise with a trough that moves to
our west and how that feature evolves. One solution has it a bit
faster and sliding across the CWA through Wednesday while the EC has
it a bit slower and weaker. Beyond Wednesday, model consensus lacks
with the placement and amplitude of synoptic features, so stay tuned
to the forecast for future refinements to the forecast. Now, taking
a closer look at temperatures, expect highs to climb into the lower
to mid 40s west of I-25 and lower to mid 50s east of I-25 through
the remainder of the work week into next weekend. While lows dip
into the lower to mid 30s across the CWA, coldest west of the I-25
corridor.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Low CIGs will continue to lift over the next several hours for
the Nebraska terminals, KAIA may hold onto the lower CIGs for
slightly longer. A passing shower may come in the VC to KCYS and
KLAR through this afternoon. Otherwise, not all that eventful
for the remainder of the sites for most of the daytime hours. A
return of FG is possible at KBFF, KSNY, and KAIA later this
afternoon/evening, bringing IFR conditions back to those sites.
This FG will plague these terminals through around 15Z Sunday,
thereafter the FG should lift and disperse with a return of
gusty winds on the order of 25 knots. These breezy winds will
also return to KCYS and KLAR by 16Z Sunday with gusts 20 to 25
knots.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...RZ