Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

860
FXUS65 KCYS 142347
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
447 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions is in
  effect for much of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska
  Sunday.

- Fire danger will remain elevated to critical through at least
  Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday.

- High winds are increasingly likely for most of southeast
  Wyoming and western Nebraska on Tuesday.

- Moderate to heavy mountain snowfall is expected this from
  Tuesday through Thursday this week, mainly above 8500 feet.

- Snowfall is possible over the Plains Wednesday into Thursday,
  followed by temperatures falling below seasonal averages for
  the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 323 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

With upper-level ridging moving into the Rockies today, a period of
dry and mild weather is expected. As the ridge axis translates
eastward into the forecast area on Sunday, southwest flow will
advect warmer air aloft. 700 mb temperatures will rise above 0C,
which is roughly the 90th percentile for NAEFS climatology. These
anomalously warm temperatures will lead to a mild day across
the CWA. Highs for most locations will be in the 50s and 60s,
which is anywhere from 15 to 25 degrees above average for mid-
February. As a result, a few locations will have the potential
to set new record high temperatures. However, some cloud cover
could jeopardize these record highs. Breezy west to southwest
winds may cause mountain wave clouds to develop, blocking out
some of the daytime heating needed to achieve this record
warmth. The warmth and dryness will also lead to near-critical
fire weather conditions for much of the forecast area during the
afternoon hours.

The upper-level ridge axis will be east of the CWA by Monday,
however, the warmth will remain. 90th percentile 700 mb temperatures
will once again be present, leading to similar high temperatures as
Sunday. Breezy conditions can be expected out west as a weak
disturbance passes overhead during the day. This could lead to some
cloud cover around in the afternoon. Precipitation chances are
not expected during the day, however an incoming trough moving
in late Monday night could cause some snow to move into the high
terrain out west.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

A parade of storm systems will continue through much of the week
ahead, keeping fairly active weather in the picture for our area.
The primary hazards will be fire weather and strong winds on Tuesday
into Wednesday, and then possibly another system with more moisture
available Wednesday into Thursday.

A powerful upper level trough will push inland from the Pacific
heading into Tuesday. A moisture laden jet stream will push up
against our mountains, likely leading to a period of moderate to
heavy orographic snowfall in the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges.
Southwest flow aloft will support strong lee cyclogenesis over
northeast Wyoming. Upwards of 90% of ensemble members have the
surface low to our north, giving fairly high confidence in westerly
downslope flow for the entirety of the High Plains on Tuesday. Winds
may start off southwest to south Tuesday morning, but the lee
cyclone to our north will begin to push eastward around midday,
dragging the surface trough to the east as well. As this occurs,
expect strong winds to overspread nearly the entire area Tuesday
afternoon. Spread still exists between the ECMWF ensemble system and
the GEFS, with the GEFS mean 700-mb wind over KCYS Tuesday afternoon
around 55 knots and the ECMWF ensemble mean around 45 knots. The
primary discrepancy appears to be the southern extent of the strong
winds aloft, as both systems are in good agreement showing 700-mb
winds exceeding 50 knots over Converse and Niobrara counties.

As of now, confidence is high in high winds for the wind prone areas
and adjacent zones in Carbon, Albany, Converse, and Platte counties.
This is near certainty already for the wind prone areas, and the
main question is just how strong can the winds get. The most likely
scenario at this time is a middle-tier high wind event for these
areas with gusts of mainly 65 to 75 mph as high wind parameters are
not quite off the charts yet, and there is not a consistent signal
for a mountain top inversion supporting significant wave breaking.
Confidence is medium for Laramie, Goshen, and Niobrara counties,
where the flow aloft is not as consistent amongst ensembles, but
most models show fairly strong subsidence. The lowest confidence is
in the Nebraska panhandle, where both the availability of
subsidence and the flow aloft are more in question. However,
the probability for high winds has still increased from prior
forecasts, hovering around 50-60% for the northern panhandle,
and 20-30% for the southern panhandle. While temperatures will
not be as warm as Sunday and Monday, Tuesday will still bring
near critical fire danger with dewpoints mainly in the teens or
even single digits. As fuels remain critically dry grass fires
will have the potential to spread very rapidly in the presence
of these strong winds. Due to the downslope flow, precipitation
will likely remain very limited along and east of the I-25
corridor. PoPs were decreased from the NBM to remove the mention
of rain and snow from the forecast. Our far northern zones
north of roughly Douglas to Chadron can still get precipitation
in northwest flow, so retained a chance for rain/snow there.

The first upper level low will push to our east Tuesday night, while
a strong pressure gradient remains in place over the plains, keeping
winds elevated. The second upper level low will be right on the
heels of the first, pushing into the area during the day on
Wednesday. The mountains may not even get much of a break in
snowfall before the next surge in orographic moisture moves in. This
trough will have a more zonally oriented jet streak aloft than the
first, which, when combined with a surface high sliding down from
the north on the backside of the first trough, will likely support
lee cyclogenesis further south. In fact, a narrow majority of
ensemble members show the surface cyclone developing over northeast
Colorado, which is favorable positioning for High Plains
precipitation. The caveat is that many show a secondary surface
low over central Wyoming (perhaps in the Wind River valley),
which could keep westerly to southwesterly surface winds in
place over Carbon, Albany, and Laramie counties and thus
suppress precipitation. As of now, confidence is highest in
seeing measurable snowfall in the mountains, and for areas of
the Plains north of the North Platte River valley. Colder air
will work in behind the second system, pushing temperatures
actually below seasonal averages which is quite rare this
season. Extreme cold is not expected, but highs in the 20s and
30s look like a good bet for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 445 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period. Remaining wind
gusts this afternoon will ease over the next few hours, but
expect fairly widespread gusty southwest winds to return Sunday
as high level cloud cover increases. Look for gusts of 20 to 30
knots mid morning into the afternoon, and possibly up to around
40 knots at RWL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for WYZ417-418-
     428>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN