Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

106
FXUS65 KCYS 172342
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
442 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Pacific storm system will impact the area Monday with
  snow...rain...and cooler temperatures. High Wind Warning
  remains in effect for the wind prone areas of southeast
  Wyoming.

- Locally heavy mountain snowfall will continue today with a
  Winter Weather Advisory in effect until late this evening.

- Models continue to alternate on the strength and placement of
  a low later this week, but expecting at least a chance of
  precipitation and snow with this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Current winter headlines are doing well with SNOTEL sites estimating
snowfall totals in the Sierra Madres between 5 and 7 inches.
Snowfall totals in the Snowys are noticeably lower, around 3
inches, due to shadowing from the Sierras in southwest flow.
There was a brief lull in snow in the mountains this morning,
however Hi-Res guidance shows another round of snow this
afternoon which could lead to an additional 3 to 6 inches of
snow before the end of this event. Snow will taper off this
evening as the upper-level low moves into Nebraska and weak
ridging begins to build in. The High Wind Warning in effect for
the Arlington area has also been performing well throughout the
day with frequent gusts over 50 MPH and an occasional gust to 60
MPH. The South Laramie Range and Foothills have yet to hit, but
Hi-Res guidance like the HRRR and FV3 show winds peaking this
evening with over 50 kt gusts. In-house guidance is in agreement
as 700 mb winds peak at 50 kts over the summit and foothills
with strong subsidence during this time. Winds will ease
overnight as the low pressure system moves further east. As the
system moves out, lingering showers will persist through the
afternoon hours and overnight.

Weak ridging will build over the CWA on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
As a result, weather on both days will be nearly identical.
Southwest flow aloft will usher in warmer air, with 700 mb
temperatures rising to about 0C. High temperatures will climb to
roughly 10 degrees above average both days with highs mainly in the
50s and low 60s. Subsidence under the ridge will keep conditions dry
for the most part, however mid-level moisture could lead to
orographic snow showers in the mountains. Mid-level moisture will
also lead to some cloud cover on both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

The long term is an unsettled pattern that will see our
temperatures dropping closer to normal but then ultimately
warming again as a closed upper low makes its way across the
region that models have been waffling over, leading to
uncertainty in how significant of impacts will occur from this
system to end the week. Wednesday night begins under transient
ridging that will continue into early Thursday, but by the
afternoon and evening an approaching closed low will bring
precipitation and unsettled conditions back to the region. There
is a large amount of uncertainty with this system though as
models are unable to come to an agreement on the strength and
track of this low from run to run. The latest 12Z guidance is
less impressive in terms of precipitation for the CWA, as both
the ECMWF Ens and the GEFS show limited wintry accumulations in
both the mountains and even adjacent valleys and high plains due
to a more southerly track of the system. Nonetheless, both are
still showing at least some accumulation even down into Cheyenne
proper possible before temperatures jump back above freezing on
Friday, so look for at least a non-zero chance that we could
see a little bit of snow for the mountains and portions of
southeastern Wyoming before this system departs. On the note of
temperatures, highs on Thursday should drop into the 40`s to
50`s, with temperatures cooling a few degrees further on Friday
as we see low 40`s for highs in a few locations, particularly
along the I-80 corridor where the most likely impacts from the
low will be possible. Moving into the weekend another transient
ridge should briefly "warm" us back up with 40`s to upper 50`s
expected, warmest east of the Laramie Range, but by late Sunday
the next impactful system will be on our doorstep with more
precipitation and cooling temperatures possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 438 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Areas of showers will continue to bring periods of MVFR to IFR
conditions across the region through this evening, but should be
departing overnight. Sites most likely to see precipitation
include KRWL/KBFF/KCDR/KAIA, while other sites have a chance of
a rare passing shower but too low to include in TAFs. Gusty
winds through the nighttime hours with speeds 15-25 knots and
gusts up to 40 knots expected for all WY terminals as well as
KSNY, but by tomorrow morning all sites should see winds
lessened. CIGs start on the mid to low side, producing some of
the aforementioned MVFR to IFR conditions primarily at
KRWL/KBFF/KCDR/KAIA, with clouds lifting overnight as the system
departs and precipitation exits the area. Into tomorrow
afternoon look for mid to high level clouds with winds 10 knots
or less.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ110-116-
     117.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ112-
     114.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG