Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

116
FXUS65 KCYS 031740
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1040 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Sierra
  Madre, Snowy, and North Laramie Ranges, as well as the I-80
  Summit and Arlington area today and tonight through 5 PM
  Tuesday.

- Another round of accumulating snow is expected Thursday
  morning through Saturday morning. Exact accumulations
  uncertain at this time.

- Upper-level blocking pattern may start this weekend, leading
  to the potential for multiple rounds of precipitation across
  the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 304 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

Rain and snow showers continue early this morning as a shortwave
pushes into the forecast area. Current observations show
temperatures above freezing for most location, with many ASOS across
the CWA reporting rain. SNOTELs in the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges
are just beginning to pick up accumulating snow, while webcams
around the Arlington area show a mix of rain and snow. Patchy fog
has also been popping up around the CWA, with this likely continuing
through the morning hours.

Precipitation will become more widespread and stratiform as the
morning progresses. The shortwave will dive south into Colorado,
leaving the bulk of precipitation to fall along the Interstate 80
corridor. Decent precipitation amounts are expected, including some
accumulating snow. Snow accumulations will mainly be in the high
terrain as well as the plains/valleys west of the Laramie Range.
Winter Weather Advisories are in place for the Snowy, Sierra Madre
and North Laramie Ranges through the afternoon. The Snowy and Sierra
Madres will see the most accumulation, with over 10 inches of snow
possible. Winter Weather Advisories are also in place for the
Arlington area and South Laramie Range with up to 6 inches of snow
possible. Will have to keep an eye on areas like Laramie as
prolonged northerly flow could lead to enhanced snowfall amounts
during the day. For the most part, areas east of the Laramie
Range will be warm enough to see mostly rain. The exception to
this would be Cheyenne. Some models like the HRRR, show a few
inches of snow accumulation due to prolonged upslope flow. Other
models like the GFS and ECMWF, show about a dusting as both the
air and ground will be too warm. Trended snowfall totals for
Cheyenne near an inch to account for any accumulation that may
happen. However, given the warm overnight temperatures, higher
accumulations are not likely. Showers will gradually taper off
later in the afternoon, leading to a quiet but chilly overnight.

Once the shortwave is out of the area, temperatures will quickly
warm up above average once again. Upper-level ridging will take the
place of the shortwave, leading to mild and dry conditions on
Wednesday. Temperatures west of the Laramie Range could be a bit
cooler than currently forecast as this will depend on snow cover,
but areas east of the Range will likely see highs in the 50s and
60s. Sunny skies are expected during the day, meaning minimal
precipitation chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

In the wake of our system earlier in the week, our area will briefly
be under the influence of a shortwave ridge, bringing us well-above
average temperatures with a chance for some light precipitation
ahead of the next incoming system. High temperatures will likely
exceed 60 degrees east of the Laramie Range, with 50s west of the I-
25 corridor. Models actually have some weak instability progged
primarily over our Wyoming counties, so any precipitation may be
more convective in nature. Lee cyclogenesis will take place on
Friday downstream of a vigorous shortwave trough digging across
the Four Corners region, with an associated front impacting SE
Wyoming and W Nebraska during the day, resulting in a 20-25
degree drop in high temperatures relative to the previous day.
For once, our temperatures will actually be cooler than average,
so enjoy the brief taste of winter while it lasts. Given our
location relative to the vorticity maxima associated with the
500 mb closed low (resulting in differential cyclonic vorticity
advection) along with progged 700 mb frontogenesis, we expect
that precipitation will be rather widespread and likely in the
form of snow given the post- frontal air mass.

As we head into the weekend, we remain in a cold advection regime
under northerly flow, resulting in another day of below-average
temperatures and blustery conditions. We will be in the left-
entrance region of a 110 knot 250 mb jet, therefore large-scale
subsidence and dry conditions are expected at this time. On Sunday,
500 mb heights rise as a zonally-oriented ridge (weird, right?)
builds on the eastern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone located
off the California coast. This should result in a warming trend into
early next week, which will also be accompanied by an increase in
our winds. 700 mb cross-barrier flow is progged to exceed 50 knots,
with supporting guidance from an in-house wind product suggesting
greater than 60% probabilities of Arlington meeting high wind
criteria. Details will become more apparent as we get closer in time
to this event, but generally the trend is towards warmer, drier, and
windier conditions after a brief cooldown heading into this weekend
(which will hopefully involve some beneficial moisture).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1040 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

A system moving through will bring a mixed-bag of precipitation
across the southeast Wyoming terminals, from accumulating SN to
a RA/SN mix. This precipitation will cause flight categories to
drop to IFR, in poor VIS and under low CIGs. The Nebraska
Panhandle sites will see mainly RA, dropping conditions to MVFR
with reduced VIS and lower CIGs. All this will come to an end by
this afternoon and early evening as the system responsible
pushes out of the CWA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     WYZ103-110-112-114-116.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for
     WYZ109.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...NB/RZ