Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

648
FXUS65 KCYS 021139
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
539 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the end
  of the work week.

- Afternoon and evening storms will be possible most days
  through the end of the week. A few strong to severe storms
  will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 336 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Radar is active early this morning with multiple slow moving
thunderstorms plaguing the southern Nebraska panhandle. Model
soundings show elevated instability with some decent moisture
advection in the low to mid-levels which is helping to fuel
storms. While storms south of the Colorado/Nebraska border have
been severe, storms in the panhandle remain sub-severe, likely
due to a strong capping inversion and weaker shear as seen on
model soundings. Hi-Res guidance is slow to move storms out,
showing them trekking across most of the Nebraska panhandle
before moving out around 6 AM. This is also roughly the time the
shortwave responsible for these storms exits the area.

Behind the weak shortwave, warm and dry air will settle into the
CWA. With mid-level moisture falling below 30 percent by the
afternoon, cloud cover will be limited, leading to a mostly sunny
day. Warming 700 mb temperatures along with the sunny skies will
lead to a hot day, especially east of the Laramie Range. Here,
temperatures will reach the upper 80s to low 90s. Although it
will feel like a warm summer day, there is a conditional severe
threat for the Nebraska panhandle. Parts of the environment are
suitable for severe storms, mainly the instability. Model
soundings from the GFS show MUCAPE values ranging from 1500 to
2300 J/kg during the afternoon. The dry surface and inverted-V
profiles also show DCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg. These
parameters will lead to both a severe hail and wind threat.
However, most Hi-Res guidance do not show much, if any storms,
developing this afternoon. Hi-Res guidance is likely picking up
on the weakly sheared environment, and thus shows a few gusty
showers at best. Despite these conditions, cannot rule out an
isolated strong to severe storm Thursday afternoon/evening.

Much of the same is expected for Friday with similar high
temperatures and surface dryness. The conditional severe threat
remains the same as models show conflicting information at this
time. The GFS shows very little shear and instability aside from
ample DCAPE due to the dry environment. The HRRR shows plenty
of MUCAPE and shear in the Nebraska panhandle Friday afternoon.
The HRRR shows multiple discrete cells developing off the high
terrain and pushing eastward throughout the afternoon.
Hopefully, models can come into better agreement within the next
12 to 24 hours for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Independence Day...The flow aloft remains westerly, and with decent
moisture in the 850-500 mb layer, and individual layers, combined
with low level convergence east of I-25, we anticipate seeing
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
east of I-25 in the afternoon, and over western Nebraska in the
evening. All in all, the 250th anniversary of our country should see
quite pleasant weather conditions across southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska, with minimal late day showers and thunderstorms,
near perfect for outdoor activities. Somewhat cooler for the holiday
due to more cloud cover and in a post cold frontal airmass, with
maximum temperatures in the 80s, near perfect for the
bisesquicentennial, 250th anniversary of our country`s birth. A
decent 850/700 mb theta-e ridge axis will extend across western
Nebraska, so there is a possibility of isolated strong thunderstorms
across the southern Nebraska Panhandle where CAPES of 2000 to 3000
J/kg will occur, though 0 to 6 km bulk shear values near 25 knots
will somewhat mitigate the storms severity.

Sunday...With warm temperatures aloft, the CIN, convective
inhibition, will increase markedly with 700 mb temperatures near 17
Celsius, limiting convective potential, and allowing for at best,
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
along and east of I-25. Another warming trend begins based on 700 mb
temperature trends.

Monday-Wednesday...Similar synoptic pattern to Sunday, with decent
southerly low level moisture advecting northward into our counties,
especially east of I-25, though warm temperature aloft will produce
enough convective inhibition, CIN, to limit afternoon and evening
thunderstorms to isolated to widely scattered coverage. Temperatures
will continue their warming trend based on 700 mb temperatures and
the paucity, limited amount, of cloud cover. Slightly cooler on
Wednesday due to an increase in mid and high level cloudiness.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Lingering showers across the Nebraska panhandle have resulted in
gusty winds, cloud cover and some visibility reductions. Winds
should ease by mid-morning, with clouds also clearing out around the
same time. Mostly sunny skies are expected for the rest of the day
with winds on the lighter side. Smoke aloft can also be expected
from wildfires, but this should not affect visibility at terminals.
An isolated gusty shower or storm could be possible this
evening.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...SF