Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

613
FXUS65 KCYS 121655
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1055 AM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures and near critical fire weather conditions are
  expected to return for Wednesday and Thursday.

- Isolated to widely scattered PM showers and thunderstorms will
  return for Thursday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

The area is enjoying a very pleasant summer day today with cooler
than average temperatures largely in the 70s to mid 80s across the
area. Light northerly flow prevails over the area just behind the
axis of an unseasonably strong upper level trough. While the mid to
upper atmosphere is quite dry, there is some modest moisture between
about 700 and 550-mb allowing for increasing cloud cover generally
in the 8 to 15 kft AGL range. The dry air, combined with a prominent
inversion around 500-mb, will limit any vertical development to
today`s afternoon cumulus, and PM thunderstorms are not expected
today. A modest vort-max visible as a region of cloud cover
currently in Northwest Wyoming will move eastward this evening. This
will provide some weak ascent along with more moisture in the lower
free troposphere, and could produce widely scattered showers
generally along/north of a roughly Douglas to Alliance line. The
chance of appreciable rainfall from this is near zero, but we may
see a few sprinkles and possibly an isolated report of a few
hundredths of an inch. The inversion will still be present, and
should prevent much, if any, thunder. This activity is expected to
wind down Tuesday morning.

Look for another nice day on Tuesday, but highs will begin to climb
slightly, warming perhaps 5F above today`s values. Limited
instability generally around 500 J/kg or less may produce some
isolated showers Tuesday afternoon, but confidence in any rainfall
is too low to add PoPs to the forecast at this time.

Changes will be on the way for Wednesday as the powerful ridge
currently over the west coast moves eastward mid week. 700-mb
temperatures will surge from around +10C Tuesday morning to around
+16 to +18C by Wednesday afternoon. Expect hot temperatures to
return to the forecast on Wednesday, perhaps 10F or more hotter than
Tuesday in some areas. The typical lower elevation hot spots will
make another run at 100F. A very dry boundary layer is expected to
limit afternoon convection once again, but we may see some isolated
virga showers in the afternoon and evening. On the flip side, hot
temperatures and a deep, well-mixed boundary layer are expected to
bring fire weather concerns back into the picture. Elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions can be expected along and west of
the Laramie range.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Thursday...Continued hot as 700 mb temperatures remain about the
same. With a slight influx of low and mid level moisture, and a
passing shortwave trough aloft, we expect to see isolated to widely
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Friday...Slightly cooler as 700 mb temperatures drop a little.
Enough low and mid level moisture for scattered late day showers and
thunderstorms.

Saturday...With weak disturbances in the flow aloft, and adequate
low and mid level moisture, we anticipate scattered afternoon and
evening thunderstorms once again. Slightly cooler with more cloud
cover.

Sunday...With slightly less atmospheric moisture, we expect a small
decrease in late day shower and thunderstorm coverage. Maximum
temperatures close to those of Saturday.

Monday...Despite ridging aloft, it looks like there will be adequate
moisture aloft to produce isolated late day showers and
thunderstorms. Maximum temperatures look similar to those of
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period. Winds may be
variable at times early this afternoon but should setting on
south to southeast for High Plains terminals by mid to late
afternoon. A low level jet is expected tonight in the Nebraska
panhandle, with gusty southerly winds expected between about
05z and 15z. In addition, periods of LLWS are possible
particularly at KBFF and KCDR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MN