Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

396
FXUS65 KCYS 180805
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
205 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions and above average temperatures are
  expected to continue for much of the week ahead.

- The next chance for precipitation and temperatures closer to
  seasonal averages will be Friday into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

While last winter may have shown you to never really put away the
shorts, today and tomorrow you might want to wear pants. 700mb
temperatures are going to drop from around 12C to 6C today and
Monday. A cold front is expected to drop by around the afternoon to
bring a cool fall sensation over the region. Daily high temperatures
are expected to be in the 60`s with a couple locations in the
Nebraska Panhandle to potentially hit 70. Winds are also expected to
become breezy around 20 to 30 mph before dieing down in the evening.
The overnight temperatures are expected to be in the 30`s to maybe
low 40`s across the area. This cold front is expected to stall
somewhere in Northern Colorado (let`s say Ft. Collins or Loveland),
this means we can expect the same cool temperatures as today to also
occur on Monday. There are some high based clouds that will move in
most likely dropping the temperatures a degree or two colder than
currently forecasted for areas west of I-25. If this occurs and
upsets you, then you can blame Utah for having a shortwave that
gives them weather but sends excess clouds over to us. However,
looking at the most recent sky fields in our models these clouds may
be gone by Monday afternoon and then you will see the sun again.
Monday night will be a tad warmer with overnight temperatures in the
40`s with light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Warm and dry weather is expected to continue through most of next
week, though a transition to a more active pattern is possible by
the end of the week into next weekend. The synoptic weather pattern
for the weak ahead will features a broad ridge over the central US,
with another slow moving closed low meandering into the western part
of the country. Southwest flow aloft will prevail through most of
the week. Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages with 700-
mb temperatures around +5 to +8C for much of the week. Look for
highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the area, which will be about
10-15F above normal. The flow direction will continue to improve mid
to upper level moisture through the week. By Thursday afternoon,
NAEFS mean precipitable water is actually quite close to
climatological maximums. Despite the high moisture content, we don`t
have much lift to actually translate this into precipitation. Weak
heating this late in the season will keep convective instability to
a minimum, and synoptic forcing appears unimpressive at this time.
Still, we may see some widely scattered high-based showers each
afternoon and early evening through the week ahead. Forcing may be
strong enough by Thursday to pick up coverage a little as the upper
level low to our west inches closer. Fortunately, the moisture
advection will mix into the boundary layer periodically, which
should keep fire weather concerns down.

The upper level low will make its exit to the east sometime in the
Friday through Sunday period. This will present the next chance for
notable precipitation, while also dropping temperatures closer to
seasonal normals. Most likely, Friday will be another warm day but
with increasing chances for rainfall later in the day, with the cool-
down waiting until Saturday. Since we are still 6 to 7 days out,
precipitation is highly uncertain at this time. NBM PoPs are
generally in the 30 to 50% range which seems appropriate at this
lead time. While a sizable minority of ensemble members have
healthy precipitation totals (0.5" or more), this system appears
fairly disorganized so there is also a possibility (30% or so) that
it delivers minimal rainfall to our area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. A cold front will
be passing through and the winds will become gusty and colder
behind it. Some high based clouds will be passing through
tomorrow evening between 12,000ft and 20,000ft so no impacts to
general aviation are expected. Around 00z winds will start to
turn more eastward but winds will be about 10kts during that
time.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MM