Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

894
FXUS65 KCYS 022007
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
207 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record heat this afternoon, followed by temperatures cooling
  as a front moves into the region through Tuesday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue
  through Monday.

- Warming resumes on Wednesday as the ridge builds back in, with
  similar temperatures next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Forecast is largely on track this afternoon as temperatures
continue to soar and red flag conditions are noted for our
western and eastern zones. Had to expand the Red Flag Warning
across Carbon County and into Albany County as winds have been
overspreading into these areas and creating a critical
environment. Meanwhile, with some daily record highs already
broken and some on track to tie or break, it will be a notable day
of warmth no matter what. Moving into this evening, we should
see temperatures decline and Red Flag conditions subside for our
eastern zones, but with poor overnight recoveries expected for
our western zones, the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to
continue during the nighttime hours into tomorrow.

Red Flag conditions for tomorrow are a bit more tricky than
today. Areas along and east of I-25 are expected to see minimum
RH values down into the teens, but a surge of moisture/cold
front from the incoming trough will cause our humidity values
to rise quickly during the later afternoon and into the evening.
If our winds can pick up early enough, we`ll easily see a
critical environment for several hours before RH values rise.
Knowing how our winds like to over perform coupled with the
expectation that at least a couple of hours of critical
conditons are likely, decided to err on the safe side and issued
a Red Flag Warning for the aforementioned region. Meanwhile the
critical environment for our western zones remains much more
likely, with that warning continuing through tomorrow evening as
well. With the expected surge of moisture and incoming front, a
few showers and thunderstorms across the southern Laramie Range
may be possible during the afternoon. Soundings around the area
and into the lower terrain show an inverted V setup,
unsurprising since our surface will be fairly dry. Therefore
it`s possible this activity could be virga in nature and only
produce some locally gusty winds depending on how much surface
moisture we can get across the area with storm development. But
low moisture would only enhance the critical fire weather
environment, including both the gusty winds and dry lightning.
Thankfully we`ll get a reprieve into the long term, but this
will be a momentary lapse at best.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week as we remain in a much
more comfortable post-frontal air mass and under the influence of a
1020 mb surface high to our north. While the bulk of the forcing for
ascent will remain well to our northeast over Manitoba and Ontario,
decreasing 500 mb heights that actually fall below the median value
relative to climatology will bring us some much-desired and
seasonably cool conditions across SE Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle. Strengthening ESE gradient flow will be in place thanks
to an inverted ridge being banking up against the higher terrain
will also bring us some breezy conditions. Despite it being another
dry day, we can expect much more comfortable temperatures with highs
ranging from the mid to upper 70s east of a Laramie to Douglas line,
with low 80s expected further west where fewer clouds are expected.
Long-range ensemble guidance is suggesting wind gusts ranging from
25-30 mph mainly east of the Laramie Range, however 25th percentile
RH values are around 25-35%, so Red Flag conditions are unlikely at
this time, but will need to be monitored depending on if the
magnitude of low-level upslope flow decreases. Enjoy the cooler
weather while it lasts...

The warm up begins on Wednesday as a mid-level ridge builds over the
Desert Southwest, placing us in a northwesterly flow regime, which
is not exactly ideal in terms of monsoonal moisture transport from
the southwest. Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with calmer winds compared to the previous day. The trend
continues into Thursday as the ridge axis shifts north and east
closer to the Rocky Mountain West, resulting in high temperatures
approaching 90 degrees. Ending the work week and heading into the
weekend, ensemble guidance has the ridge continuing to strengthen
and shift east over the Great Basin, returning the possibility of
seeing near record-high temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100 east
of the I-25 corridor, and upper 80s to low 90s to the west. Dry
conditions remain in place underneath the ridge until at least the
weekend with no meaningful precipitation chances as PWAT remains
between the 10th to 20th percentiles.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Another hot and
dry day is expected across SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle
with a few high-based cumulus along with some high clouds aoa 20
kft. The main hazard these next 24 hours will be gusty winds,
primarily for the Nebraska terminals after 02Z thanks to the onset
of a 40-45 knot SE low-level jet, which will gradually veer to SW
throughout the night as the boundary layer decouples and we continue
to stabilize. Added the mention of low-level wind shear around 2 kft
at KCDR, KBFF, and KAIA to account for this. Confidence in LLWS is
lower at KSNY so did not include in the TAFs at this time.
Otherwise, expect prevailing southerly flow at the surface before a
cold front moves through the area around 14Z Monday, which will
shift the winds out of the northwest.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ101-102-104-
     107>109-111-118-119.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ417-418-
     430>433.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ420>423-425-427.
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434>437.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...NB