Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

684
FXUS65 KCYS 141751
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1151 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain and snow showers in Carbon and Albany counties
  this morning may result in a few slick spots along the I-80
  corridor and accumulating snow above about 8500 feet in
  elevation.

- A strong but compact system will bring a chance for rain to
  the High Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Warmer and drier weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday,
  bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions and
  marginally high winds in the wind prone areas.

- A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder, and
  wetter weather for Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A weak upper-level trough and associated vort max will slide through
the CWA today. This feature and its associated energy will increase
the threat of precipitation, first across our western zones and then
east/northeastward throughout the day. The suite of deterministic hi-
res models depict this activity, albeit a bit disorganized and
not with the greatest consensus. Because of this, forecast confidence
is low due to this disagreement in solutions. In addition, modeled
soundings show that the lower atmosphere is dry which will play a
role if precipitation actually hits the ground. With all this being
said, if you drew a line from Douglas to Chadron, south of this we
have generally a 50% chance of precipitation. The greatest threat
will be along I-80 from Rawlins to Sidney. At the latter parts of
today, near Sidney, some guidance is showing the potential that there
could be a few rumbles of thunder. However, instability parameters
are meager at best and confidence if this will actually happen
remains low. Peering into the world of ensemble guidance, probs
greater than 60% of a location getting a tenth or more of liquid
precipitation remains across the higher terrain west of Cheyenne and
the Nebraska Panhandle. While here locally, unfortunately, Cheyenne
has a 40-60% chance of a tenth of liquid precipitation. For the
higher elevations, including Laramie, snow showers are a possibility
with little to no accumulations expected. Locations above 8K feet
may see a few inches of late season snowfall. This system and
any precipitation will exit the CWA by Wednesday morning, then
expect a quieter day along with plentiful sunshine throughout
Wednesday.

Switching gears a bit, lets take a look at temperatures and winds.
First temperatures, with 700mb temps in the 0 to -2C range, expect
highs this afternoon a tad cooler then previous days with 50s west
of I-25 and mid 50s to mid 60s east of the I-25 corridor. And
Wednesday, with clearing skies, 700mb temps warm up a bit into the
+2 to +4C range, translating to a few degrees warmer across the
board. Low temps will reflect a similar pattern, cooler Tuesday
night (generally in the 30S) and near 40 for Wednesday night.
Regarding winds, mid-level winds today are nothing to write home
about, so expect surface winds generally less than 20 mph across
the CWA. By early Wednesday morning, the 700mb jet picks right
back up to near 50 knots, with the peak over the Laramie Range.
However, per the GFS, subsidence is meager so these winds may
not mix down to the surface. In-house guidance agrees, and shows
generally less than 40% of high winds for our known wind prones
along I-25 and I-80. This threat, albeit slim, will be all but
over Wednesday afternoon/evening as winds across the region once
again will be on a downward trend.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Thursday night-Friday...A progressive and sharp trough aloft and its
associated cold front move from Idaho and Utah Thursday evening, to
western Wyoming late Thursday night, with the cold front passing our
counties Thursday night. The trough axis aloft tracks across our
counties during the day on Friday. Fairly high confidence in
scattered to numerous rain and snow showers spreading from west to
east Thursday night, with likely to widespread snow showers Friday
afternoon. Much cooler and windy on Friday with maximum temperatures
in the mid 30s and 40s. Winter weather highlights may be needed for
the mountains and nearby locations.

Saturday...Snow showers will gradually end from west to east early
in the day, as the shortwave trough aloft moves into the northern
Great Plains states. Strong low and mid level northwest flow will
help produce a windy day, with possible high winds for our wind
prone locations. Somewhat warmer than Friday with 700 mb
temperatures near 6 Celsius.

Sunday...The flow aloft weakens as low amplitude shortwave ridging
aloft develops over Wyoming, producing dry conditions and mild
temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s with 700 mb temperatures near
2 Celsius.

Monday...Ridging aloft moves over our forecast area, with surface
lee troughing over our eastern counties, producing a dry and mild
day. 700 mb temperatures near 8 Celsius will yield maximum
temperatures in the mid 60s west of I-25, with 70s east of I-25.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Looking at satellite and Airport observations further southwest
into the CO/UT area, Cloud ceilings are going to bounce between
MVFR and VFR today with a chance for KLAR to drop to around
1,000ft with those afternoon showers. These showers are expected
to move northeast throughout the day with the possibility of
some thunderstorms after 00z for KSNY. The low to mid level
clouds should start clearing out by 06z leaving some transient
high clouds to push through.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MM