Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

381
FXUS65 KCYS 151854
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1254 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A High Wind Watch remains in effect for the typical wind
  prones across southeast Wyoming from 6 AM through 3 PM
  Wednesday.

- A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for many locations east
  of the Laramie Range from noon to 8 PM on Thursday.

- A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder, and
  wetter weather Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 222 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026

What a difference a day makes, the system that impacted the CWA
yesterday will be a distant memory as it moves off to the east. A
transient ridge will build, bringing blue skies and warmer
temperatures. So, highs today will soar into the upper 50s west
of the Laramie Range and 60s/70s to the east with lows Wednesday
night dipping into the 40s across the region. The only headline
for today will be the potential of a low end high wind event in
our known wind prones across southeast Wyoming. The 700MB jet
cranks up this morning, peaking around 50 knots. However, per
the GFS, subsidence is meager, so these winds may not mix all
the way down to the surface. In-house guidance agrees and shows
generally less than 40% chance of high winds. So, due to low
confidence, the High Wind Watch will remain as is from 6AM this
morning to 3PM this afternoon. Thereafter, winds will be on a
slight downward trend.

Onto Thursday, well, some changes are in-store and that beautiful
bright light in the sky will become shrouded by clouds. First thing
first, lets take a gander at the upper-levels, a positively tilted
trough will slide east across the Intermountain West to our doorstep
by Thursday night, this is the feature that will bring the changes
that I briefly mentioned earlier. Ahead of this, with southwesterly
flow aloft, highs will soar back to around 60 for many locations
west of I-25 and the upper 60s to upper 70s east of the corridor. By
Thursday afternoon through the nighttime hours that`s when things
will change. Embedded in this trough is a cold front that will dive
southeast across the CWA, bringing increased chances precipitation
and much colder temps. So, by Thursday afternoon precipitation will
begin to enter our CWA across our northwest forecast zones. As we
progress into the nighttime hours, the cold front continues to slide
southeast, as it does, precipitation chances increase. The other
thing of note, as upper-level flow turns northwesterly, a colder
airmass will spread into our CWA. Taking a look at 700MB temps,
they tank into the -12 to -14 degree C range by Friday morning,
so expect low 20s to around 30 as you begin your day. During
Thursday night, as temperature tank, precipitation will
transition to snow. As a result, northwest of a line from
Laramie to Chadron, many locations could wake up to a dusting to
an inch of snow. I know chances of snow may excite you, but we
can`t forget about winds. Another potential high wind event
along with elevated fire concerns late Thursday morning into
afternoon hours. We will have the 700MB jet ramp up once again
early Thursday morning to around 60 knots, primarily over the
Laramie Range. With weak subsidence in place, these winds will
have a hard time mixing down to the surface. With low probs, via
in-house guidance, no headlines as of now. However, it appears
that it will become breezy which will increase the fire weather
threat as min RH values dip into the 10 to 15 percent range east
of the I-25 corridor, stay tuned...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Our ridge starts to become flattened and pushed off to
the east Thursday. A cold low pressure system will start to push
into the Intermountain west as it dives southeast from the
Saskatchewan/Albertan Providences bringing a colder airmass with it.
A cold front will start push through the Southeast Wyoming area late
afternoon to early evening. Models show it being a pretty stout
front with temps in the 50`s in front and 30`s behind it. However,
due to the timing of the front a fire weather watch was issued for
Goshen, Platte, Laramie, and the Nebraska Panhandle counties as RH
values look likely to drop between 10 and 15 percent for the
afternoon coupled with the breezy winds between 20 to 25 mph.
Converse and Niobrara weren`t included because there is uncertainty
with how low the RH will drop before the cold front pushes through
raising the humidity above possible threshold values. There will be
some showers associated with this front as well. Looking at the
model soundings the mid-levels will saturate first and produce virga
at first. But the virga should reach the ground into the overnight
period and likely come down as snow as we saturate the lower levels
and  below freezing. 700mb temperatures look to drop to about
-13C making it for a colder Wyoming Friday with temps in the 30`s
while the Panhandle looks to be in the low 40`s. The snow showers
will continue into Friday as the pressure system start to makes its
way into the Northern Plains. Friday night will be the peak of the
cold airmass as overnight temperatures drop into the teens and
twenties. Another ridge will also start to push into the
Intermountain west late Friday afternoon keeping us in Northwesterly
flow filtering in that colder air from the North and tightening our
pressure gradient creating a cold breezy wind as well. Total
accumulations from the Thursday/Friday system looks to be around 3-4
inches in areas west of the I-25 corridor, 2-3 inches along the I-25
corridor, and about 1-2 inches east of the corridor. For the
Nebraska Panhandle it looks to be roughly 0.5 to 1 inch of snow with
some 1-2 inch areas closer to the WY/NE border. By Saturday morning
the system should be far enough east to stop snowing while the ridge
moves further east as well. The airmass over the intermountain west
will gradually warm up but the Saturday temps will still be in the
40`s and 50`s. Sunday, warm temps in the 60/70`s east of I-25 return
with mostly clear skies in the afternoon. This warmer ridge is
currently expected to last until Tuesday morning before another
shortwave could possibly hit the Intermountain West again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The flow aloft will become westerly today, then turn southwest
tonight.

Confidence is high, due to a ridge of high pressure aloft, with
scattered to broken clouds from 12000 to 15000 feet, and also
moderate confidence in winds gusting to 40 knots at the Wyoming TAF
sites until 01Z, then to 30 knots until 15Z and to 38 knots after
15Z Thursday. Winds expected to gust to 35 knots for the Nebraska
TAFS until 02Z, and again to 28 knots after 15Z Thursday. A
reduction in pressure gradient and decoupling will help reduce the
winds overnight.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ417>419-
     430>433.
     High Wind Watch from midnight MDT tonight through Thursday
     evening for WYZ104-109-110-113.
     High Wind Watch until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ106-110-
     116-117.
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...RUBIN