Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

176
FXUS65 KCYS 091135
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
535 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will warm back up on Tuesday with highs east of
  the Laramie Range 10-15 degrees above normal, with
  temperatures backing down through Thursday before another
  warmup on Friday to end the week.

- Red Flag Warning in effect for eastern Wyoming and all of
  western Nebraska Tuesday through late Wednesday, with critical
  fire weather conditions likely extending through late in the
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 153 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Some showers and thunderstorms this morning lifting up across
the Colorado border into the Nebraska Panhandle this morning on
radar. The environment is just weak enough that most of this
activity is losing it`s intensity before it can reach our area,
but monitoring for strength as well as overall rainfall in case
any additional products are necessary. While thunderstorm
activity will relax moving into this afternoon, don`t expect
our weather to quiet down in the least as we switch gears into
critical fire weather conditions and strong, gusty winds through
Wednesday.

For today, we`ll see the upper level trough continuing to move
over our region, shifting flow from southwesterly to more
westerly over the course of the day, with this flow persisting
into Wednesday for most of the day until very late/overnight
when a shortwave will swing in from the northwest and bring a
cooler pattern just outside of the short term. This pattern will
promote warmer temperatures today thanks to dry and warm desert
southwest area overspreading the region. This will primarily
impact highs east of the Laramie Range, with temperatures 10-15
degrees above normal, while to the west we should see a a
pleasantly cooler day thanks to the incoming trough cutting off
the warmer flow in this region earlier on, with highs much
closer to normal. But the aforementioned dry air alongside a
tightened pressure from this system creating gusty winds will
create an critical fire weather environment, with Red Flag
Warnings in effect for eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle starting at noon today. And with relative humidity
recoveries poor with further gusty and dry conditions tomorrow,
this Warning is in effect through 9 PM on Wednesday. It must be
noted that the Nebraska Panhandle has received notable
precipitation recently, with greenup finally beginning to occur.
While fuels may finally be exiting a critical status, to limit
confusion due to expected critical weather conditions, have
elected to keep the Red Flag valid across the area. Finally,
this system should still be able to produce a few showers or
storms later today, but with dry boundary layer, we`ll likely be
seeing them struggle to get precipitation to the surface after
daytime heating. With elevated instability present alongside
inverted V sounding profiles, expecting we`ll see gusty virga
and the potential for some dry lightning, but locations in the
extreme western portion of our CWA may be able to see some
precipitation development before the strengthening storms exit
our CWA and continue eastwards.

Wednesday marks the cooler day as warm air intrusion begins to
wane, but it will still be a relatively warmer than normal day
east of the Laramie Range again as highs sit around 2 to 6
degrees above normal. Dry air will remain firmly in place
however, continuing the risk of critical fire conditions
alongside the strong winds which will be the strongest of the
week thanks to notably enhanced pressure gradients. But high
wind products are not currently anticipated, as surface pressure
gradients lie just outside of where we would like to see them
for gusts of 58+ mph, and in house guidance indicates only
around a 40% probability of high wind criteria. If anywhere were
to hit it though, look to the Chugwater to Wheatland corridor
alongside the Arlington/Elk Mountain region as the most likely
candidates.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The long term forecast appears dry with a switch in the flow regime
from southerly flow to a more westerly. This is due to a persistent
upper level trough pattern to our north into Canada. A cold front
Wednesday will effectively cut us off from the more moist air that
has been advecting in from the Gulf. During this period we are
watching for conditions favorable for fire weather and high winds.

The high wind conditions spill over from Tuesday as flow at the 700
mb level stays elevated. The GFS is projecting winds at this level
at around 50 knots. As daytime mixing commences the risk of these
winds being mixed to the surface increases. Additionally enhancement
by mountain wave breaking is likely to occur. Taking a horizontal
cross section across our west to east ranges depict downsloping
winds approaching 55 knots during the late morning to early
afternoon hours collocated in areas of negative omega. Higher gusts
are certainly possible given the low resolution of global models.
This is not a great combination with the expected low relative
humidities values. Across most of the area values are expected to
plummet below 15 percent and temperatures in the 70s to high 80s.
This is following previous poor nighttime recoveries of about 40-50
percent.

Going into Thursday and beyond, winds start to calm down after the
departure of the mid level shortwave and ridging builds in. As
mentioned our source of moisture has been cut off by the prevailing
synoptic pattern, so humidity values remain very low. Winds are
likely to remain high enough to warrant continued fire weather
products through just about the entirety of the long term. Saturday
and Sunday may see enough moisture and a source of lift from a
clipper type system to support a few storms. Both GFS and Euro are
on board with this solution with the usual caveat being that at
this range solutions will change. If you are looking for any bit of
good news past the long term, the latest CPC outlook has our area in
below average temperatures and increased precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

A few low clouds noted over KCYS this morning bringing MVFR
conditions to the terminal. Once these depart in a few hours,
VFR conditions expected widespread for all terminals through the
end of the forecast period. Winds increasing today from the
south to southwest and then becoming westerly overnight, with
gusts 25 to 40 knots, strongest at WY terminals. CIGs mid to
high level, becoming around 10K feet later this afternoon and
evening with a chance of nearby showers or storms.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for
     WYZ417-418-430>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for
     NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...CG