Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

167
FXUS65 KCYS 251145
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
545 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler this weekend with temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees
  below normal.

- Widespread rain and mountain snowfall expected Sunday and
  Monday as a central Pacific system lifts northeast across the
  region.

- Near normal temperatures and a bit warmer by Tuesday through
  Thursday, but the next Pacific system will be approaching from
  the eastern Pacific later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

An active beginning to the forecast period, as a vigorous
closed upper-level low continues to churn over the Desert Southwest.
A considerable moist conveyor belt associated with this system is
evident on GOES mid-level water vapor imagery, with numerous shower
streaming up from the south and west out of Colorado. Heading
through the overnight period and into Sunday morning, these showers
are expected to impact mainly the eastern portion of the Nebraska
Panhandle as an axis of weak isentropic ascent gradually lifts to
the north and east. Decided to increase PoPs through the morning
hours across the Panhandle for this reason, although the bulk of the
forcing for ascent will remain well to the south and west of our
area until late Sunday into Monday as the closed low lifts to the
north and east. QPF looks to remain spotty and light for areas
across the Panhandle overnight into Sunday morning, with most areas
seeing under a tenth of an inch. Areas further west across SE
Wyoming should stay mostly dry through the rest of the morning,
although patchy dense fog will impact much of the region under the
moist, southeasterly upslope flow behind yesterday`s FROPA. Decided
to go ahead and issue a Dense Fog Advisory for the I-80 summit until
10AM MDT on Sunday for this reason, with WYDOT cameras and sensors
showing visibilities under 1/4 mile.

During the day on Sunday, the closed low to our south and west will
transition into an open wave as it lifts north and east closer to
our area. Expect a relatively gloomy and brisk day, as areas east of
the Laramie Range will remain under weak ESE upslope, resulting in a
cold air damming setup. Highs east of the I-25 corridor tomorrow
will likely be stuck in the 40s given lots of low cloud cover, with
locations west of the Laramie Range expected to see highs in the
50s.

Sunday night into Monday morning is when the most active (and wet)
weather is expected as the strongest DCVA impacts mainly the
Nebraska Panhandle as the wave translates across our area.
Deterministic guidance is showing very strong isentropic ascent over
the Panhandle counties into Monday morning, with forecast soundings
illustrating strong low-level veering/warm advection. Combined with
overall favorable kinematics, NAEFS guidance shows PWAT at or above
the 99th percentile relative to climatology, translating to over
0.80" of PWAT (!!), which is truly a feat for late October. ECMWF
ensemble guidance showing as much as 0.7" of QPF for this event.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see some locally higher totals up to 1.0"
given the anomalous deep-layer moisture and some very weak elevated
instability atop the warm nose, with MUCAPE up to 100 J/Kg, allowing
for at least some isolated weak convection. Locations east of the
Laramie Range across SE Wyoming will likely also expected to see
some decent rainfall, however not as impressive as areas further
east where the strongest forcing for ascent is expected. Gradually
decreased PoPs from west to east throughout the day on Monday to
reflect this trend.

Now, the question everyone has been waiting for...Will it snow?
Unlikely, but not out of the question is the answer. Latest trends
from high resolution ensemble guidance have trended slightly cooler
with 700 mb temperatures along the I-25 corridor down to -2C across
SE Wyoming. While unlikely to see any accumulating snow across the
High Plains of SE Wyoming, this will have to be monitored as any
increase in the magnitude of ascent as the system ejects over our
area could result in additional cooling of the column. This may
allow for a brief transition to snow or a rain/snow mix across SE
Wyoming Monday morning, with the latest HREF showing snow
probabilities for Cheyenne Monday morning of around 35%. No
impactful accumulation is expected at this time, but is worth
mentioning due to the current cooling trend.

Precipitation will gradually end from west to east on Monday, with
another chilly day expected with highs mainly in the 40s east of the
I-25 corridor, and perhaps a few 50s to the west. Chadron and
locations north of the Pine Ridge may actually struggle to get out
of the 30s for highs on Monday, as weak NE surface flow will keep
cool, moist air banked up against the ridge, keeping the areas
socked in with stratus. Can expect a seasonably chilly night Monday
night into Tuesday with lows primarily in the 30s. Can expect some
lingering fog mainly east of the Laramie Range overnight as winds
will be rather light, with just a few clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Medium to long range models in reasonable agreement through late
week, with a period of quiet weather expected for southeast Wyoming
and western Nebraska during the middle of the week. Models show
moderate southwesterly flow across the area with the polar jet
staying north of the Front Range, and the subtropical jet staying
well to the south over Texas and northern Mexico. We`re kind of in-
between these two separate storm tracks for most of the week with
mostly quiet weather expected and near or slightly above average
temperatures. A pair of potent Pacific shortwave troughs are
forecast to impact the area late this weekend and early next week,
with the second one likely missing southern Wyoming and remaining
north of the area Tuesday. Models show a surface "cold front"
rapidly moving east and clipping the forecast area to the north.
However, all this front will do is shift low to midlevel winds into
the west and increase wind speeds on Tuesday and Tuesday
night...producing somewhat warmer downslope winds for a bulk of the
area, including the high plains. Will need to watch for High Wind
criteria for the typical wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming since
most models show 700mb winds increasing over 45 knots by Tuesday
morning and remaining elevated through Tuesday night with a decent
surface pressure gradient and some hint of brief mountain wave
activity. At this time, in-house wind guidance shows probability of
wind gusts over 55 MPH around 20% to 45% for Arlington, Bordeaux,
and even some of the sub wind prone areas along Interstate 25 near
Douglas. For now, increase wind speeds up to criteria but did not
increase wind gusts over 60 MPH quite yet. Event should be pretty
brief and not too widespread, and peak mid Tuesday morning. Models
have backed off on winds Tuesday night/early Wednesday with a slight
downward trend, so kept those winds lower for now.

Downslope winds should result in relatively mild temperatures for
this time of the year Tuesday through Thursday, but not quite as
warm as it has been prior to this weekend. Kept high temperatures in
the upper 50s to upper 60s, warmest of the eastern plains below 5000
feet and coolest temperatures across Carbon and Albany counties.
Peak temperatures should occur later in the week with highs
approaching 70 degrees over the western Nebraska panhandle as an
upper level ridge axis across the southern United States and the
Gulf amplifies ahead of the next Pacific storm system. Model
solutions begin to diverge at this time, which is to be expected
nearly 7 days out, as potential long wave trough attempts to settle
across the eastern Pacific Ocean with a potent storm system pushing
inland and into the Great Basin Region by late next Saturday and
into next Sunday. Will have to keep an eye on this storm later in
the forecast period as some model solutions and ensembles show a
decent amount of colder air along with a subtropical moisture tap
from the central Pacific. This pattern typically favors lee-side low
pressure systems and an active weather pattern for the Front
Range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A slow moving Pacific storm system will gradually lift northeast
today and tonight, bringing widespread rainfall for most of
southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska late this afternoon through
Monday morning. Widespread and long duration IFR to LIFR conditions
expected for most terminals through 12z Monday.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: MVFR CIGS will continue this morning for
KCYS and portions of the Nebraska Panhandle terminals. Brief IFR and
light rain showers mainly for KSNY through 15z. CIGS will briefly
lift into the early afternoon hours. As the storm system lifts
north, CIGS will gradually lower to IFR with increasing
precipitation from south to north. Expect all western Nebraska
terminals and KCYS to see IFR to LIFR CIGS by 03z Monday with light
rain becoming moderate to heavy overnight. KLAR will be tricky due
to lower confidence with some downslope easterly winds off the
southern Laramie Range. KRWL will be on the western fringe of the
precipitation shield with MVFR CIGS and light off/on rain showers
the most likely scenario at this time.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for WYZ116.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT