Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

171
FXUS65 KCYS 221747
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1047 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple arctic cold fronts are expected to impact the
  forecast area through the end of the week and into the weekend.

- Much colder temperatures Thursday through Sunday, with the
  strongest shot of cold air expected Friday.

- Cold Weather Advisory in effect for portions of western
  Nebraska Thursday night through Saturday. This Advisory may
  be extended further west into southeast Wyoming.

- Some accumulating snowfall possible Friday and Friday night,
  and again on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 305 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

Quiet weather observed early this morning across southeast Wyoming
and western Nebraska. Winds have been relatively tame, for a
change, even across the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming.
Further north, the next weather maker in the form of an arctic
cold front is moving south into the northern plains including
eastern Montana. Surface temperatures across eastern Montana and
the Dakotas are currently dropping into the single digits below
zero with -10 to -20F across southern Canada. This arctic
airmass is forecast to move over the area, likely bringing the
coldest air so far this winter.

For today, seasonably cold temperatures are expected with high
temperatures in the 20s (north of I-80) and low to mid 30s over
the I-80 corridor. All models show the secondary surge of arctic
air moving south into the region by late this evening, likely
arriving after sunset. Deterministic models and ensembles
showing better run to run consistency, so did not make too many
changes to the temperature forecasts early this morning. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the single digits pretty much
everywhere as the second surge of arctic air rapidly moves south
and stalls near the mountains. Forecast low temperatures are
generally between 5 above to 5 below zero, with some lower teens
for Carbon County...where the front will likely stall for a bit.
Unlike some of the previous arctic fronts the last few years,
this one won`t have strong winds along the frontal boundary or
behind it. However, occasionally breezy northeast to east winds
are possible. As we head into Friday, all models show 850mb
temperatures between -10c and -20c behind the front, which
typically translates to single digits above and below zero
depending on elevation. A few of the colder models have backed
off on the -25c 850mb temperatures, which were more common
during yesterday`s 00z model runs...but that just means that
record low temperatures a more unlikely. Still expect overnight
low temperatures Saturday and Sunday morning to be near zero
or -5 to -10, especially across the high plains. NBM min and max
temperatures were way too warm, which is pretty common with
arctic airmasses, so adjusted forecast using the previous
forecast, NBM 25th percentile, and CONRAW. With occasionally
breezy east to southeast winds, wind chill temperatures are
forecast to be around -20 to -25 for portions of the high
plains. Confidence is high enough to issue a Cold Weather
Advisory for bitter cold wind chill temperatures for most of the
western Nebraska Panhandle starting late Thursday night and
continuing through Saturday. Expect this Advisory to be extended
further west at a later time if model trends continue.

Snow is still expected to develop along and behind the arctic
surge, likely starting after midnight tonight over east central
Wyoming and northern/central Nebraska panhandle. As with most
arctic air intrusions, snowfall rates and amounts are highly
uncertain due to very limited moisture source(s) and the brief
nature of the event as the best dynamic forcing is either too
brief or limited in areal coverage. Decided to use previous
similar events as guidance for this arctic intrusion, and went
with a general 1 to 3 inches of snow...highest in the favorable
shallow upslope regions. Still think most areas will see around
one inch to maybe two inches of snow, but the ECMWF and GFS
show a region of moderate frontogenesis developing across
southeast Wyoming Friday and Friday evening with 700mb Omega
averaging around 10 to 30 mb/hour with modest WAA aloft. These
factors typically contribute to locally higher amounts and
moderate snowfall rates near arctic fronts. With generally low
confidence due to the lack of moisture and PWATs below one
quarter of an inch, decided against any winter weather headlines
(other than the non-precip Cold Weather Advisory). In addition,
although models are not showing the potential of freezing fog
along and east of the Laramie Range, persistent moist upslope
east to southeast winds will likely produce a low stratus deck
and some fog along and just west of the I-25 corridor...which is
pretty common with these events. Can`t rule out some freezing
drizzle late tonight through Friday morning as well, but
confidence is very low since the saturated layer is rather
shallow and poorly defined on area model soundings.

Otherwise, very cold Friday and Saturday with high temperatures
likely in the single digits or low teens across most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

Medium to long range forecast generally look on track after this
weekend. Models are now showing a third reinforcing shot of
very cold air on Sunday as another upper level disturbance
quickly digs south out of Canada. Lowered Min and Max
temperatures a bit Sunday and Sunday night. May also see another
round of snow Sunday with minimal accumulations.


Previous discussion...
Issued at 351 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026


The long term starts quite chilly as an arctic airmass
overspreads the region and we see some light snow across much of
the CWA before ridging begins to take over and warm us up and
bring back chances of high winds. Overnight lows Friday night
into Saturday behind an arctic airmass will be bitter, into the
negatives with wind chills bringing us down into the negative
teens and twenties. With temperatures getting this cold, a few
locations will likely need Cold Weather Advisories. And highs
likewise will struggle to break out of the teens and single
digits. Meanwhile a weak slug of moisture should bring a chance
at snow, and while current totals are generally on the low side,
around 1-2 inches, some models indicate we could see some better
growth rates and perhaps a little more snow than forecast.
Still, don`t anticipate anything worthy of a stout winter storm,
but perhaps a surprise advisory could be in store.

Into the later part of the weekend and early next week, we`ll
see ridging taking over once again and pressure gradients and
the low level jet returning, meaning what else - high winds. In
house guidance is starting to ping a 40-80% probability of winds
58+ mph for our wind prone locations beginning Sunday morning
and continuing into the early week timeframe, and Craig to
Casper gradients are peaking in the 55-65 meter range while
700mb winds are reaching into the 60 knot range. Don`t be
surprised if our brief respite from strong winds is broken by
early next week. Otherwise the ridge will bring us into a dry
westerly flow pattern, with temperatures on the rise. Highs are
able to reach back up into the 20`s on Sunday, and then Monday
into Tuesday we should get back out of freezing during the
afternoon each day as highs return into the 40`s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1039 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions through this evening, but overnight into tomorrow
morning we`ll see multiple features bringing VIS and CIGs down.
First the cold air and moisture present should produce areas of
BR and possibly even FZFG just past the Laramie range,
primarily impacting KCYS. Then into tomorrow morning, snow will
overspread most of the region, bringing CIGs to MVFR or IFR
status alongside lowered VIS during falling snow, affecting all
NE terminals and KCYS, with snow not expected to overspread
into remaining WY terminals until just after the TAF period.
Winds could see occasional breeziness with some gusts of around
20-25 knots, but otherwise look for average winds 10-15 knots
and shifting from a northwesterly to northerly component, to a
more easterly to southeasterly direction by the end of the
period.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MST
     Saturday for NEZ002-003-021-055-095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG