Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

892
FXUS65 KCYS 070546
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1145 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds will increase tonight in the wind prone areas of
  southeast Wyoming, elevated to high winds possible.

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday
  afternoon and evening will have the potential to produce small
  hail and gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

The rest of Wednesday will be on the quiet side with abundant
sunshine across most of the area and chillier than normal
temperatures behind yesterday`s storm system. The strong May sun has
allowed for fairly decent melting of the snowpack that is in place.
Some melting could continue overnight as winds increase and become
more westerly. Downsloping winds could continue to eat away at the
snowpack if winds can keep temperature above freezing overnight.
Overnight lows tonight are tricky as it will generally be clear
where there is snowpack, allowing for temperatures to fall below
typical guidance under normal circumstances. However, given the
surface high developing over the Colorado Rockies overnight, a
strong MSLP gradient will evolve west of the Laramie Range. This
will cause the winds to ramp up, leading to the aforementioned
downslope. Downsloping winds could keep temperatures on the "mild"
side above freezing. Due to the uncertainty, just went with the NBM
for low temperatures tonight. Focusing back on the winds, cannot
rule out the chance for brief high winds in the wind prones late
tonight into Thursday morning. This is solely a gradient driven
event with no upper-level support. The strong MSLP gradient and
strong 850 mb CAG to CPR height gradients could lead to 60 MPH
gusts, mainly between 12 AM and 6 AM Thursday. For now, decided to
hold off on any products due to lack of confidence.

Heading into Thursday, temperatures will quickly rebound back to
around seasonable with highs mainly in the 60s across most of the
area. A deep upper-level ridge will begin to push onto the west
coast, ushering in the warmer temperatures aloft. However, the CWA
will still be on the backside of the trough over the Great Lakes. A
weak disturbance will move through the back of the trough, prompting
a round of showers and thunderstorms during the day. Showers could
move into the forecast area from the northwest as early as sunrise,
becoming more numerous throughout the day. Instability will be
decent by the afternoon with about 300 to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE.
Thunderstorms are likely, with small hail possible. Cannot rule
out a few severe wind gusts within storms as well. Scattered
showers and storms will continue into the overnight hours, but
will eventually dissipate as the disturbance moves out of the
area.

Quieter weather is expected on Friday as the CWA sits between storm
systems. Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees warmer than
Thursday with a bit more sunshine expected. Precipitation chances
during the day will be minimal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Warm days are ahead as high pressure ridging looks to take over
for the majority of the long term forecast period, though we do
start unsettled and near average before the heat takes hold.
Friday evening should be mostly uneventful under a transient
ridge with near seasonable low temperatures. Moving into
Saturday however, a quick moving shortwave should bring a shot
at showers and thunderstorms alongside gusty winds thanks to the
enhanced pressure gradient. While the best precipitation
chances will be for our northern zones, many of these locations
didn`t receive our recent snowfall and therefore the
precipitation will be beneficial for them. In house guidance is
highlighting the potential for wind highlights as probabilities
are nearing 40% for the Arlington area, and 700mb winds around
50 knots are present. If nothing else, we should see a few
storms and some locally gusty winds, but no strong agreement
that more significant conditions are expected.

Thereafter, the main story will be strong ridging that will
overtake the majority of the Western US. We`ll see mostly dry
conditions and a steady warming trend, with temperatures around
15 to 20 degrees above normal by early next week and continuing
into the middle of the week, with parts of the NE Panhandle
even flirting with 90 degrees. While ensembles do show this
feature beginning to flatten out moving into the middle of next
week, the strongest winds and pressure gradients would still lie
to our north and east, keeping us under warm westerly flow with
only weak upslope flow possibly promoting any new precipitation,
but even this would be unlikely with how dry the lower levels
will be. Most likely outcome currently would be isolated virga
which could bring locally breezy winds, but otherwise if you
didn`t enjoy our brief return to winter this week, warm and dry
weather are incoming by next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the first half
of this TAF period. Around 00Z Friday, clouds will thicken with
bases dropping to 5-8K feet. Rain chances, low confidence, will also
increase as a weak system pushes in. So a PROB30 group was added for
KLAR and KBFF. Winds will be the other factor as gusty westerly
winds pick up to around 35 knots tonight across the southeast
Wyoming sites. The Nebraska terminals will see west winds generally
less than 10 knots tonight and ramping back up by 20Z with gusts up
to 25 knots. After 01Z Friday, winds will be on the downward trend
for all terminals with winds becoming generally less than 10 knots.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RZ