Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

089
FXUS65 KCYS 291146
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
546 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern will continue into the weekend
  with daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and
  thunderstorms.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms could be possible Friday and
  Saturday. Storms could contain damaging winds and large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 427 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Low clouds remain over the majority of the forecast area this
morning as the surface and low level moisture gets trapped under a
transient ridge. This ridge is expected to push east as a negatively
tilted trough begins pushing into the Intermountain West this
afternoon. This push will provide the synoptic forcing to develop
some showers with some embedded thunderstorms possible on the
eastern side of our southeastern corner of Wyoming. Hi-res guidance
places about 1800 joules of CAPE near the Wyoming and Nebraska
Border this late afternoon. NAEFS still places PWAT values in the
90th percentile between 0.75 and 1 inch values along the same area.
While there will be ample forcing for storm initiation the lack of
shear will prevent most thunderstorms from being able to sustain
themselves and eventually collapse one themselves. Most Hi-Res
guidance does throw out the idea of potential pockets of 30 knot
shear that could sustain a weak thunderstorm but the vast
environment lacks the shear needed by thunderstorms to separate the
updraft and downdraft region and survive. This now pulsy environment
will have thunderstorms quickly pulse up and then collapse on itself
leading to a very microburst-y environment. As these storms collapse
it wouldn`t surprise me if we start seeing brief strong wind gusts
(microburst) underneath these collapsing cells. Saturday, looks to
be a little drier as the upper level low begins to pivot and lift
northward making us become rather dry slotted for most of the area.
SPC has drawn a slight risk for the eastern edge of our portion of
the Panhandle. Hi-res guidance paints a swath of 2,000 joules with
favorable lapse rates and forcing to initiate convection. However,
due to the proximity of the most favorable environment it is likely
that storms may develop on our side of the Nebraska Panhandle and
quickly push into South Dakota or into the more eastern Panhandle
outside our jurisdiction. So it will be interesting to see how the
dynamics come into play with the Low essentially pivoting over us
and dryslotting our area on one half and eject strong streams of
vorticity to increase forcing on the other. As this upper level low
pivots and begins to lift northward, our pressure gradient begins to
tighten and switches us to westerly flow. 700mb pressure gradients
fields on the GFS and some hi-res models show a short-lived jet
between 55 to 60kts develop overnight Saturday into Sunday. With the
strong subsident flow of the dry slot those brief faster winds
should easily mix to the ground to give us potential high winds
between 03z and 09z Sunday with strong winds slowly dieing down
throughout the afternoon Sunday the further the system lifts
northward. Looking at the model omega fields, strong subsident flow
remains over Bordeaux starting Saturday night and remains over it
through Sunday afternoon increasing confidence in the strong gusty
wind outcome. However, it`s a little uncertain if the jet will
remain strong enough to give us those high winds results or if we
just end up getting close. This uncertainty in reaching high wind
criteria has resulted in no headlines being issued on this shift and
passed the torch to the day crew for one last look.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 427 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026

On Sunday, the flow becomes more zonal and 500 mb
heights begin to rise as weak ridging builds in across our region,
also yielding a drop in PWAT. Values remain around the 45th
percentile across our area per ensemble guidance, so expect to see a
drop in shower and storm coverage, with an activity being confined
primarily to the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges. Thanks to rising
heights and zonal flow, Sunday will be breezy with highs near or
slightly above normal (average high for Cheyenne on May 31 is 71
degrees). Monday will be similar to Sunday, with a slight decrease
in the winds and mostly dry conditions. Heading into the middle of
the work week, the mid-level ridge begins to build across the Rocky
Mountain West resulting in a gradual warming trend and mostly dry
conditions, with no meaningful and widespread precipitation in the
extended. Ensembles are hinting at an increase in in low-level
moisture as well as PWAT mainly for our Nebraska counties (nearing
the 85th percentile), however these details will need to be sorted
out in future updates.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Some low level moisture is trapped under a weak area of high
pressure resulting in IFR conditions for majority of the
terminals in Nebraska. However there is an upper level low that
will start to push in this morning effectively clearing the low
level clouds and replacing them with higher level clouds for VFR
ceiling heights. This upper level low will also develop some
gusty showers this afternoon for the Wyoming terminals as well
as some possible thunderstorms for our Nebraska side. Storm
activity should subside after 00z for our Wyoming airports and
around 06z for our Nebraska airports.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for WYZ116>118.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...MM