Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

172
FXUS65 KCYS 112216
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
316 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snowfall will continue through Thursday morning with
  light snow spilling into the I-80 corridor between Cheyenne
  and Rawlins.

- While temperatures will remain above seasonal averages for
  much of the week ahead, there will be occasional chances for
  light precipitation

- High winds are possible Tuesday in our wind prones across
  southeast Wyoming.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Moisture has finally returned to the area after a lengthy dry spell.
An elongated closed upper level low continues to spin over the
California coast ahead of a moisture laden jet stream visible on
GOES water vapor imagery across the southwest US and into our area.
Moist orographic lift has returned decent snowfall to the mountains
today with decent snowfall rates observed over the last several
hours. SNOTEL sites in the Sierra Madre range have picked up between
3 and 7 inches of snow generally (with a few locally higher
amounts), while the Snowy Range is slightly behind, at around 1 to 4
inches so far. Webcams indicate that snow is spilling into the lower
elevations of Carbon county, but with fairly minimal impacts so far
due to the mild temperatures. Temperatures are above freezing below
about 7500 ft in elevation. East of the Laramie Range, we have some
radar echoes showing up, but the dry boundary layer is preventing
any of this from reaching the ground. RH is generally between 25 and
40% over the High Plains at this time.

A vort-max is moving across the area this afternoon, and we can
expect to see some modest drying in the middle atmosphere in
the next few hours, which should decrease snowfall rates in the
mountains or potentially bring a lull in snowfall entirely. The
vort- max moving overhead today is also helping to temporarily
boost the pressure/height gradients across the area and thus
kick up the wind speeds. 700-mb winds around 40 to 45 knots are
expected to continue through the evening today over portions of
southeast Wyoming. However, most wind parameters are weaker than
what we would like to see for High Winds. No wind headlines
have been issued, but we will need to monitor the typical wind
prone areas through the evening for gusts mostly 40 to 55 mph.
There is about a 20-30% chance for gusts exceeding 60 mph this
evening. Another push of mid-level moisture should pick up
snowfall rates again in the mountains late this evening, which
will last into Thursday morning. The southern Wyoming mountains
will be on the far northern edge of this next moisture plume, so
additional totals in the second phase should be less than the
first phase.

The mid-level frontal boundary will remain stalled over the area
with decent mid level moisture continuing to push through during the
day Thursday. A few weak shortwave troughs traversing across the
stalled boundary will help to kick up weak isentropic lift over the
High Plains, which should allow for light precipitation to spread
east of I-25. There is some uncertainty regarding how far north this
lift will extend, but for now, the mention of precipitation is
extended up to about the North Platte River Valley. The highest
probabilities are a little further south. Models also show a little
bit of convective instability present across the area Thursday with
steep lapse rates in place. Precipitation may take on more of a
showery nature. Temperatures will be mild once again, which will
mean both rain and snow will be in play. Snow levels will generally
be around 6000 to 7000 feet. Expect mostly snow above 7000 ft,
mostly rain below 5500 feet, and a mix of rain and snow in between.
Areas seeing snow could see brief, locally heavy rates due to the
instability, dropping visibility and perhaps leading to some slick
conditions, but this will be quite transient. Unfortunately, wetting
rainfall probabilities are quite low, generally under 20% for all
areas outside of the mountains. We may see isolated rainfall amounts
of 0.1" or snowfall around one inch, but the coverage of this will
be limited at best. Forcing for lift will weaken Thursday evening,
and shower coverage will decrease after that.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

At the start of the long term period, a weak upper-level trough will
slide across the CWA, keeping chances of precipitation in the
forecast through Friday night. As we progress in the long term, this
trough and associated precipitation will move out of the CWA by
Saturday morning as ridging nudges back in, dominating weather
conditions through Monday morning. Some changes are in store by
Tuesday as troughing begins to push back into the CWA, increasing
precipitation chances, mainly across our western forecast zones, and
winds in our known wind prones in southeast Wyoming. In the
meantime, the risk of high winds remains low Friday through Monday
with meager mid-level support. The same can`t be said for Tuesday as
a stout 700mb jet, nearing 70 knots, sets up across the CWA along
with negative Omega (GFS) that will mix these winds down to the
surface. So, what does this mean with surface winds? Well, in-house
guidance suggests a high wind event with widespread probs in the 40
to 60 percent range across our wind prones in southeast Wyoming with
a few locations topping out near 80%. This is in agreement with
ensemble guidance having a 70% chance of gusts greater than 50 mph
with some members suggesting a 50% chance of gusts greater than 60
mph. With the current forecast, this is not reflected in it as it is
based off of the lower end of guidance. This will be monitored and
over the next few days will be adjusted to reflect the latest
probabilistic guidance suggesting a high wind event on Tuesday. Then
by Wednesday, at the tail end of the forecast period, you`ll be
thinking what winds as they will be a memory with the upper-level
support pushing off to the east.

The other thing of concern in the extended, as we dry out over the
weekend and the uptick in winds by early next week, is the
increasing threat of fire weather conditions across portions of the
CWA, especially from Cheyenne and points east. A limiting factor
could be any precipitation that may have fallen the preceding days,
but with min RH values forecast to drop below 20% along with dry
fuels and gusty winds, fire weather concerns rapidly increase Sunday
into Tuesday of next week. So, there may be the need for another
long duration Red Flag Warning in this time frame, stay tuned to the
forecast for future updates.

Lets shift our attention to temperatures in the extended and what we
can expect. Aloft, we will see 700mb temps climbing to around -2
degrees C Friday/Saturday and a bit warmer Sunday/Monday, soaring to
around +4 degrees C. So, closer to reality, surface highs
Friday/Saturday will top out in the mid 40s west of I-25 and low to
upper 50s east of the corridor. A tad warmer Sunday/Monday as highs
top out near 50 degrees over the higher terrain west of I-25 and in
the 60s elswhere. While lows dip into the 20s to near 30 through the
long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1045 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Overall, VFR conditions will prevail across most sites, except KRWL
and KLAR, for the duration of this TAF period. A front is pushing
into the region, this will bring in the threat of precipitation and
gusty winds. Kept the PROB30 group that was introduced earlier for
KRWL and KLAR that includes MVFR conditions in light snow/rain mix
through 23Z. Otherwise, expect gusty southwest winds across the
Wyoming terminals in the 20-30 knot range through 03Z Thursday.
Elsewhere, for the Nebraska Panhandle terminals, winds should remain
or become light and variable by 22Z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Thursday for WYZ112-114.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...RZ