Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

601
FXUS65 KCYS 140536
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1036 PM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances of precipitation increase over the weekend for the
  mountains, with a few spotty showers possible mainly along
  and south of the I-80 corridor.

- A more active pattern is expected into the middle of next
  week, with precipitation chances returning Wednesday into
  Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1226 PM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

One last mild day is expected today before a cooler and more
unsettled pattern takes place this weekend. Latest visible satellite
trends are showing fog beginning to erode across portions of the
Nebraska Panhandle where weak E or SE upslope flow and effective
radiative cooling occurred overnight underneath the ridge. These low
clouds managed to hang around a bit longer than expected, so decided
to nudge down high temperatures for today mainly along the North
Platte River Valley (Scottsbluff - Torington) where fog persisted
the longest, delaying surface heating. Expect locations across SE
Wyoming to experience another day of temperatures 10-15 degrees
above average for this time of year, with clouds increasing
throughout the day ahead of our next system. Overnight will be
similar to last night, with the potential for fog development mainly
after 09Z in the moist SE upslope flow regime. Have the highest
confidence of widespread and potentially dense fog along the North
Platte River Valley which may extend as far west as I-25. Similar to
this morning, wouldn`t be surprised to see another Dense Fog
Advisory be issued by the overnight shift for numerous counties in
the Nebraska Panhandle.

Tomorrow will feature cooler temperatures as the ridge axis
translates east of our area with rapidly falling 500 mb heights
ahead of a negatively-tilted shortwave trough. As this trough is
relatively broad with rather weak flow aloft (15-25 knot 500 mb
flow), vorticity and hence differential vorticity advection would
primarily stem from curvature vorticity (rather than shear
vorticity). We also have to consider any forcing for ascent driven
by thermal advection/isentropic lift, which also doesn`t look
favorable over our area as there is actually isentropic descent
(cold advection). So, combining the two, since the base of the
trough (and hence curvature vorticity) is progged to be well to our
south over Colorado and the main forcing being displaced from our
region, precipitation chances look to be spotty at best tomorrow
evening and overnight into Sunday. The best chances for any
beneficial moisture will be along and south of the I-80 corridor,
with the most widespread precipitation south of our area in
Colorado. Decided to trim PoPs from NBM guidance for this reason,
keeping the highest (30-40%) probabilities hugged against the
Colorado border. The Sierra Madre and Snowy Mountains across SE
Wyoming may manage to pick up an inch or two of snow, but not
expecting anything heavy or widespread at this time.

To end the weekend period, shortwave ridging builds in across the
Great Basin and Rocky Mountain West which will bring a slight
increase in daytime high temperatures on Sunday and drier
conditions. Can expect a decrease in clouds and any lingering
precipitation throughout the day, resulting in a beautiful afternoon
with highs mainly in the 50s to perhaps 60 degrees in a few
locations throughout the Nebraska Panhandle. Dry and quiet weather
looks to persist into the beginning of the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Monday...The unusually mild weather continues with broad southwest
flow aloft, and high 500 mb heights near 5760 meters overhead. This
will induce decent surface lee troughing and mild weather
enthusiasts will rejoice with 700 mb temperatures near 6 Celsius and
downslope warming boosting maximum temperatures into the mid
50s to mid 60s.

Tuesday...Stronger southwest flow aloft develops across our neck of
the woods here in southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, with a
slightly negatively tilted shortwave trough aloft moving across
Idaho, Utah and western Wyoming, with surface lee troughing keeping
our weather conditions high and dry once again with slightly cooler
700 mb temperatures near 4 Celsius and slightly cooler temperatures
for our forecast area, though still on the mild side.

Wednesday...The aforementioned shortwave trough aloft loses
amplitude as it moves to eastern Montana and the western
Dakotas by sunrise, sending its associated cold front into our
counties, Pacific originated. As is typical with these systems,
will see scattered to numerous rain and snow showers early in
the day west of a Douglas to Laramie line due to dynamics and
orographics with some decent snows across our northern Laramie,
Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges, though downslope wind east of the
mountains and Laramie Range will as usual provide a rain shadow
effect with little if any precipitation east of the Interstate
25 corridor and Laramie Range. Orographic snows will continue in
the afternoon for our Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges, and we may
need some type of Winter Weather Highlight such as a Winter
Weather Advisory, if model congruency continues.

Thursday...Looks like a windy and relatively mild day for November,
the beginning of our typical windy November through March windy
season. Strong southwest flow aloft continues, and our wind prone
locations such as Arlington, Bordeaux and the Interstate 80 Summit
between Laramie and Cheyenne may see some strong winds, and possible
wind highlights.

Friday...For climatology enthusiast, November 20th is the
latest first measurable snowfall event in recorded history for
Cheyenne, with at least one tenth of an inch of snow measured on
the ground. Interestingly, this coincides with a decent and
progressive neutrally tilted shortwave trough aloft that is
progged to move across our forecast area with a rather strong
cold frontal passage, which if model timing is correct will
produce decent orographic snows for our Laramie, Snowy and
Sierra Madre Ranges, and some likely accumulating snow for lower
elevations due to the thickness packing along the front,
dynamics and synoptic forcing, especially if the track of the
system is a bit further south across Colorado, rather than over
Wyoming as currently depicted, so please stay tuned to the
latest forecasts from your entire National Weather Service team.
In any event. Friday the 20th, will be a cold and blustery day
with measurable snow becoming increasingly likely at many
locations, although snowfall amounts are quite unpredictable for
day 7, one week out. Maximum temperatures will only be in the
upper 30s to upper 40s with breezy to windy conditions, only six
days before Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

The low stratus deck has really expanded faster than orginally
thought when first seen on satellite. Every terminal east of
I-25 will see bkn or overcast conditions within the next couple
hours. KLAR and KRWL will be the only terminals with VFR
conditions as they are only expected to see high based clouds
around 13,000ft through the TAF period. Model guidance has kept
pushing back the timing to which the low cloud deck could clear.
According to current model guidance that could be as early as
00z tomorrow.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MM