Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

511
FXUS65 KCYS 240859
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
259 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm temperatures will return through the area through
  Wednesday with widespread record highs expected Wednesday
  afternoon.

- Marginally high winds are possible (30 to 60% chance) for the
  wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming today and Wednesday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather continues through Wednesday
  and possibly beyond. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for
  much of the area for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Record high temperatures and fire weather remain the primary
concerns for the next several days. Our period of only slightly
above average temperatures is coming to an end today as the powerful
ridge begins to re-strengthen over the desert southwest and shift to
the northeast. Expect unseasonably warm temperatures once again this
afternoon as 700-mb temperatures climb to around +6 to +10C, which
is generally the 97 to 99.5 percentile of climatology. All locations
will once again see near record breaking high temperatures in the
70s to lower 80s across the area. Westerly winds will spread over
most of the area by midday today, providing an extra boost to high
temperatures today despite some cloud cover sticking around most of
the day. In addition to the warmth, large-scale subsidence will help
boost wind speeds in the wind prone areas today. Most models show
700-mb winds around 45 to 55 knots over the Arlington/Elk Mountain
and Laramie Range areas beginning late this morning and continuing
through midday tomorrow. However, pressure/height gradients are
fairly unimpressive, and considerably weaker than what we`d like to
see for high winds. This leads to low confidence in a potential wind
event today. In-house guidance and NBM probabilities are in fairly
good agreement showing probabilities around 40 to 60% for the
Arlington/Elk Mountain area today, and 30 to 50% probability
tomorrow. For the Laramie Range wind corridors, probabilities
are a bit lower, around 20 to 40% mainly tonight and Wednesday
morning. This mainly appears to be driven by the 700-mb winds
and flow aloft, which should be able to mix down during the
daytime hours. This was enough to issue a low confidence High
Wind Watch for the Arlington area, but held off on the I-25 wind
prone corridors for now.

Expect another mild night tonight as cloud cover clears, but light
to moderate westerly flow prevents the development of a shallow
inversion. This will set the stage for another day of unprecedented
spring warmth on Wednesday. The ridge strength will peak aloft and
strong warm air advection is expected ahead of an approaching
upper level shortwave. 700-mb temperatures will crest between
+10 and +14C, which easily exceeds the climatological maximum
per the NAEFS mean. The ECWMF extreme forecast index of surface
maximum temperature is hovering around 0.99 for most of the
area, indicating high confidence in an anomalous warm event. In
fact, the current official forecast reflects highs similar to
Saturday, pushing the upper 70s in Rawlins and Laramie, and the
80s to low 90s along and east of I-25. All long term forecast
sites are forecast to smash daily record highs, most by close to
10 degrees. Prior to last week, Wednesday would be an easy
forecast for monthly record highs too, but values will be fairly
close to the new monthly records just set on Saturday.

Record warmth combined with continued westerly winds across the area
will boost fire weather concerns once again. While we will have a
little more moisture present than last week`s warm spell, RH is
still expected to drop to 10 to 15% along and east of the Laramie
Range Wednesday. As a result, there is high confidence in widespread
critical fire weather conditions along and east of I-25. Further
west, the slightly cooler temperatures reduces confidence somewhat,
but it was still high enough to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch.
Wildfire will spread rapidly under these conditions.

The last weather concern in the short term will be the shortwave
trough passing to our north Wednesday evening. This feature will
kick off upper level positive theta-e advection, moistening the
upper atmosphere during the afternoon and evening hours. While low-
level moisture will be highly limited, there should be enough above
the very deep, well-mixed boundary layer to kick off some showers
around mid-afternoon. This area will be mainly concentrated east of
the Laramie Range, and south of a Wheatland to Alliance line
(roughly). While instability forecasts are not terribly impressive,
100 to 300 J/kg of CAPE may be enough to produce some isolated
lightning. The probability of lightning in the vicinity of a given
location is only around 10%, but this is still concerning due to the
very dry boundary layer. This could help support a few dry
microbursts with gusty and erratic winds at the surface. Wetting
rains are unfortunately quite unlikely (less than 10%
probability) with these showers continuing into Wednesday
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A potent cold front will push into the area behind the departing
shortwave trough Thursday morning. This will manifest as a shift in
the winds to the north or northeast along with an increase in
relative humidity. Expect this to push into our northern zones
before sunrise Thursday, and reach the I-80 corridor around mid
morning. However, it may take until Thursday evening for improved
moisture to break west of the higher terrain and reach the Laramie
to Rawlins corridor. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions
will continue for Carbon and Albany counties with near record high
temperatures continuing, even as those to the east cool down about
20F from Wednesday`s highs (and still remain about 10F above
seasonal averages!) Models show the potential for strong
frontogenesis Thursday afternoon as the frontal boundary stalls
against the Laramie Range. Modest overrunning lift on top should
produce another round of shower activity during the afternoon and
evening hours. This activity will also mix with and eventually
chance over to snow as 700-mb temperatures fall behind the cold
front. While widespread accumulating snow is not expected, this
round of precipitation will provide slightly better odds for
appreciable precipitation. Probabilities for wetting rainfall
(greater than 0.1" liquid) are around 10 to 25% for much of Albany,
Laramie, Platte, and Goshen counties. Lower probabilities are
present for other counties.

Friday will feature temperatures near seasonal averages as the
surface high pressure system begins to retreat off to the east. Look
for increasing southerly winds as this feature begins to move away
from the area. The cycle repeats again Saturday into early next week
as the powerful ridge re-strengthens once again. Lee troughing
should reach the I-25 corridor on Saturday, spreading westerly and
near record high temperatures across much of southeast Wyoming. By
Sunday, westerlies should push back across the entire area, which
will bring the potential for widespread daily record highs Sunday
and Monday. This round of warmth does not appear as anomalous as
last Saturday and this upcoming Wednesday. The ECMWF EFI for maximum
temperatures is generally between 0.8 and 0.9 while NAEFS mean 700-
mb temperatures around +6 to +8C are around the 97.5 percentile of
climatology rather than obliterating monthly maximums. Models are in
fairly good agreement showing mid to upper level moisture improving
gradually Saturday through Tuesday. This will present the
possibility for a pattern of diurnal convection in the afternoon and
evening to set up during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for the duration of
this TAF period as clouds moving through the region will generally
remain above 10K feet. Relatively benign winds across all sites
tonight, then they will pick right back up by 18Z, except for KCDR
and KAIA, with gusts to around 25 to 45 knots. After 00Z Wednesday,
winds will once again wind down to less than 20 knots.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for
     WYZ417>419-430>433.
     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for
     WYZ420>423.
     High Wind Watch from 9 AM MDT this morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for WYZ110.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for
     NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...RZ