Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

470
FXUS65 KCYS 202356
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
555 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to Critical Fire Weather conditions expected again
  Tuesday as humidities dive into the single digit values with
  light winds. However, gusty microburst showers may develop in
  the afternoon.

- The potential for high winds will return Wednesday afternoon
  into Thursday. This may event spread outside of the wind
  prone areas.

- A cooler weather pattern with more frequent chances for precipitation
  will take over Thursday and last into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

The sort of broad ridge is still slowly pushing it`s way east as
forecasted. The apex of the ridge is expected to be over the
Intermountain West on Tuesday before getting somewhat flattened by
an incoming system. Unfortunately for us this ridge will keep the
dry air and warm temperatures coming over the next few days. While
the ridge apex is over our portion of the Intermountain west the
winds will be relatively calm but the subsident flow also helps push
dry air towards the surface. There will be a weak shortwave that
will quickly push through Tuesday and afternoon and evening. Hi-res
has some showers developing in Carbon and Albany county in the
afternoon and slowly pushing east. However, looking at model
soundings there is a very large inverted v-shape indicating a strong
dry layer at the surface and with our light westerly winds that dry
layer doesn`t appear to saturate anytime soon. This means that any
shower that does develop will likely produce virga and some gusty
winds underneath it much like a dry microburst. Another day of the
humidity in the low teens and single digits. Wednesday, The ridge
will be pushing eastward over the Northern Plains as a deep upper
level trough starts to push into the Intermountain West. This trough
will gradually increase the pressure gradient over the Intermountain
West leading to stronger and gustier winds as the day goes on. Wind
gusts up to 45 mph will be possible east of the I-25 corridor in
Southeast Wyoming while the Nebraska Panhandle winds will be a
little lighter around 30 mph. Even though there is going to be a
little bit of moisture advecting ahead of this trough RH values are
still projected to be between 10 and 15 percent across the forecast
area. The combination of gusty showers on Tuesday and increasing
winds on Wednesday plus extremely dry conditions on both days has
led to a new Red Flag Warning to go into effect 11am Tuesday through
8pm Wednesday as poor overnight recoveries are also forecasted
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

A strong upper level low will traverse across the northern Rockies
Wednesday night into Thursday. Models have come into better
agreement on overall track of the low, which will keep the system to
our north and thus put us in a fairly unfavorable position to
receive widespread precipitation. Instead, our area is likely to be
positioned on the windy side of the system, with more limited
precipitation potential mainly confined to the mountains and perhaps
Carbon and Converse Counties. There is still quite a bit of spread
in the wind potential for this period. The GFS remains quite
aggressive, and would indicate the potential for a middle to upper
tier wind event. However, this solution is not yet the model
consensus. Over Cheyenne, 700-mb wind speeds Thursday morning range
from 41 knots at the 25th percentile up to 58 knots at the 75h
percentile, which is quite the large spread for this lead time. The
lower end scenario supported by the deterministic ECMWF and a fair
number of ensemble members shows the upper level low considerably
further north, over northeast Montana rather than northeast Wyoming.
This keeps the strongest low-level height gradients to our north and
would likely mean the high wind threat is confined to the wind prone
areas. Current probabilities for winds exceeding high wind criteria
are around 90% in the typical SE Wyoming wind prone areas along I-80
and I-25, 50 to 75% for SE Wyoming population centers including
Douglas, Wheatland, Cheyenne, and Laramie, and 30 to 60% for
remaining portions of the area including Rawlins, Torrington, and the
Nebraska panhandle. Some form of high wind headlines will likely be
needed for this event, but the extent of the hazard remains
uncertain.

Regardless of exact wind speeds, expect a windy and cooler day
Thursday as temperatures fall back to near seasonal averages behind
a cold front. A secondary vort-max will rotate around the longwave
trough, arriving Thursday afternoon into Friday. This will knock
down temperatures further, with highs expected to be about 5 to 10F
below seasonal averages for Friday. In addition, the upper level
disturbance will bring increased chances for widespread light
precipitation. While some light snow and/or rain is probable with
PoPs in the 40 to 60% range, LREF probabilities for 0.10" or more of
liquid precipitation is around 30 to 50% for most of southeast
Wyoming, and 10 to 30% for most of western Nebraska. Concerning
precipitation type, the chilly temperatures will support snow for
the majority of those areas that manage to see precipitation.

Temperatures will remain chilly through the weekend. 700-mb
temperatures will be near the climatological 10th percentile. LREF
means are around -4C, but the interquartile range stretches from
around -7C to -1C, indicating fairly low confidence in exact
temperatures. The chill will be held in place by a broad, and
unseasonably strong  upper level low over the Canadian prairie, which
will also keep the baroclinic zone over our area. Thus, expect the
weather pattern to remain unsettled through this period. Another
upper level low will move in across the western US and across the
Four Corners states late Saturday into early Monday. This will take
a more favorable track for widespread precipitation across our area.
In addition, models are in fairly good agreement showing a surface
high settling in over the northern Plains, allowing for an
improvement in surface dewpoints and surface winds generally out of
the south to east direction. For this system, LREF probabilities for
0.1" of precipitation or more are around 50 to 70% for the entire
area. This drops down to 20 to 40% chance for greater than 0.25",
and a 10 to 20% for greater than 0.5". Precipitation type will be a
little more complicated with this event with the large spread in 700-
mb temperature shown by various ensemble members. The warmer end
would be rain for most areas outside of the mountains, while the
colder end would be snow for almost everyone. The NBM may be a
little on the cold side for snow levels for this event, but overall
the most likely scenario is a rain/snow mix. High temperatures will
be 10 to 20F below average through the weekend, with lows around 5
to 10F below average due to the increased cloud cover. The positive
news of the cooler weather pattern is that we can expect a break
from the fire weather concerns for several days, even if the
precipitation fails to materialize.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Upper level ridge axis will remain nearly stationary over the Front
Range over the next 24 hours and even strengthen a bit into Tuesday.
Warm temperatures and dry weather will continue.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will continue over the next
24 hours with limited Aviation concerns. Lighter winds are expected
into Tuesday with gusts up to 25 knots over KLAR and KRWL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417-418-
     430>433.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for
     WYZ417-418-430>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434>437.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for
     NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...TJT