Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

047
FXUS65 KCYS 162334
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
434 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread strong to locally damaging winds will continue
  through early Friday evening.

- Wind chills below zero expected Friday night into Saturday
  morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the Northern
  Nebraska panhandle for wind chills as cold as -30F.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday
  due to gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels. A Red Flag
  Warning is in effect for the Nebraska panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

So far the widespread high wind event remains on track with all
zones in High Wind Warnings verifying. Impressive wind gusts have
been seen throughout the day, with frequent 80+ MPH gusts in the
South Laramie Range and foothills and 70+ MPH gusts virtually
everywhere else east of the Laramie Range. Numerous reports of tree
and structural damage from the strong winds have also been reported.
Widespread observations of strong wind gusts continue this
afternoon, with a gradual easing of wind gusts expected this
evening. High Wind Warnings east of the Laramie Range will expire at
5 PM, however, a brief extension may be needed if strong winds
decouple from the surface later than expected. Strong winds will
continue aloft overnight, so blustery conditions are still expected
tonight. Occasional wind gusts to 60 MPH in these locations will
likely be inevitable overnight as decent subsidence will still
exist, however 45 to 55 MPH will generally be the norm. With the
arctic airmass still in place overnight, low temperatures will drop
into the single digits and teens. A few more rural locations could
fall below zero. Given the continued strong winds, wind chills
overnight will be sub-zero. Besides wind and cold, a little nose of
energy will stick off the main trough over the Great Lakes. This
vorticity max will provide a bit of lift needed to produce a
few light snow showers overnight. Areas with the best chance of
seeing snow showers will be the northern Nebraska panhandle, the
Laramie Valley and the Snowy Range. Moisture with an airmass
this cold will be minimal, so little to no accumulation is
expected.

Wind chills Saturday morning, especially in the northern
Nebraska panhandle, will be quite cold. The cold temperatures
combined with strong winds will lead to wind chills below -25F
in these areas. As a result, went ahead and issued a Cold
Weather Advisory through 10 AM Saturday. Strong winds will
continue through much of the day Saturday as MSLP gradients
remain fairly steep and the 250 mb jet traverses the CWA. High
Wind Warnings for the wind prone areas of Arlington and the
South Laramie Range and foothills continue through noon Saturday
as strong subsidence helps bring the winds aloft down to the
surface. Areas outside of the wind prones can still expect a
windy day with frequent gusts over 45+ MPH. The strongest winds
will be in the morning, with winds gradually weakening through
the afternoon. The strong winds will also lead to fire weather
concerns, specifically in the Nebraska panhandle. An anomalously
dry airmass will swing into the panhandle on Saturday as the
upper-level trough moves eastward. Relative humidity will fall
below 15 percent for much of the panhandle leading to critical
fire weather concern when coupled with the winds. Despite fire
weather concerns, temperatures across the forecast area will
remain below average with 700 mb temperatures in the 10th
percentile according to NAEFS climatology. High temperatures
across the area will be in the 20s and 30s.

Heading into Sunday, high temperatures will return to near-average
for most of the CWA. As the arctic trough pushes further east,
seasonal air aloft will move in. Expect continued windy conditions
on Sunday as the 250 mb jet sits over the eastern half of the CWA.
Wind gusts over 45 MPH are likely in the aforementioned areas.
Minimal precipitation chances are expected with partly to mostly
sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 422 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

In the long term, the region will see a quick moving shot of
cold air to start the period before we then mostly sit between
major features with the primary influence coming from ridging
re-establishing itself across the western US, but by the end of
the forecast period a breakdown of this pattern will leave
ensembles in disagreement on how to handle the forecast. Sunday
into Monday a low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes
will drop a cold front across the region, bringing a surge of
cooler air alongside a shot of light precipitation. Most likely
time for precipitation will be on Sunday, but only a quick
chance of some localized snow near the high terrain is expected
before then departing with accumulations minimal at this time.
Meanwhile this cold air should cause our temperatures to drop
from near normal to just a few degrees below normal on Monday.
This cold air will be short lived though, and by Tuesday warm
air advection will bring us back to around 10-15 degrees above
normal. Meanwhile, a quick jet over the region on Tuesday should
produce another round of strong winds, albeit it mostly
relegated to the wind prone locations, with in house guidance
promoting a 60-70% probability of high winds for Arlington and
Bordeaux. Moving into Wednesday & Thursday, the ridge should
start breaking down, but ensembles begin to diverge on how much
this high will erode, with around 60% of members expecting this
high to weaken but still be able to lightly hold the region,
while the remaining 40% expect this feature to fall apart thanks
to low pressure to deep low pressure to the north and a weak
low offshore from California. Either way, this should help to
tune down temperatures and bring us back to closer to near
normal. This could also allow for some weak embedded systems to
skim across the CWA and bring another chance of precipitation or
gusty winds, but as of this writing no features are noted that
look potent enough to cause anything more than a quick glancing
pass at the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 434 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

The biggest threat to aviation operations in this TAF period will be
the continuation of powerful winds, expect gusts upwards of 45-60
knots over the next several hours, diminishing after 03Z. The
reprieve from winds, unfortunately, will not occur until the tail end
of the TAF period when winds decrease to less than 20 knots across
all terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the
duration of this TAF period, except for KLAR, KBFF, and KAIA.
Where snow showers may impact KLAR and BLDU at KAIA and KBFF,
reducing CIGs and VIS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ101-102-
     106>108-118-119.
     High Wind Warning until noon MST Saturday for WYZ110-116-117.
     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for WYZ115.
NE...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM MST
     Saturday for NEZ002-003-095-096.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for
     NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RZ