Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

120
FXUS65 KCYS 201125
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and severe weather return this afternoon, with
  further disturbances bringing a more active pattern through
  early next week.

- Somewhat drier air will move into the forecast area for
  Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, producing a decrease in
  areal shower and thunderstorm coverage, along with bringing a
  warming trend, though latest guidance does indicate the ridge
  may break down a bit and allow for more precipitation
  incursions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Lets get it on! Today will mark the start of an active weather
pattern that will bleed into next week. So, lets take a closer look
at this afternoon as we have and continue to anticipate the return
of severe weather. Why today, well, a surface low will strengthen
over east-central Colorado, this will feed moisture into our CWA as
flow becomes southerly to southeasterly. This coupled with an upper-
level shortwave that slides across the region as the ridge that has
been dominating our weather slides off to the east. These two
features will be the catalyst in driving today`s weather. With the
influx of moisture, clouds are likely to develop during the morning
hours which could hamper the destabilization of the atmosphere,
possibly delaying the thunderstorm development. However, guidance
tells a different story and that this cloud cover will not delay
thunderstorm activity. As the sun burns off the clouds, highs will
soar into the 80s, helping to increase the instability. As such, hi-
res guidance is picking up on the initialization nicely at around
1PM along I-25. Then, over the next few hours, making it into the
Nebraska Panhandle by 3PM. Lets briefly take a look at what else in
the atmosphere that is creating a prime environment for this to
happen this afternoon. A few other severe indices that we look at
concur with a severe threat this afternoon, with Convective
Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values upwards of 2000 J/KG and
bulk shear values of 50-70 knots will support rotating and strong
updrafts, combined with a few other favorable parameters, severe
thunderstorms that may produce tornadoes and very large hail are
likely this afternoon across eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle. Frankly, the concerning aspect of this convection is that
the hi-res guidance is developing discrete long-tracked supercells,
capable of producing 2"+ hail, strong winds, and long-track
tornadoes. Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has much of
far eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle under a slight risk
(2 of 5) for severe weather and a marginal risk (1 of 5) for the
remainder of the CWA east of I-25. The other thing that can`t be
over looked, are the chances of flash flooding in any of these
storms. The atmosphere will be moist and with precipitable water
values of an inch or more over the area of concern, flash flooding
will be a very serious threat this afternoon as well. Turn around,
don`t drown. By the late evening hours, most of the activity should
be out of our region, though some lingering showers and sub-severe
thunderstorms will likely persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

It will be a semi-active pattern for the long term.
Sunday, a shortwave will drop down into the Intermountain West to
continue our chances for much needed rain for our farmers. Some
lingering mid-level moisture from Saturday will look to be
sufficient for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. SPC has a Slight
risk for Cheyenne County in Nebraska and a Marginal Risk from
Kimball to Alliance. The rest of forecast area is in a general
thunder instead of a severe risk. Monday into Tuesday, A low
pressure system drops into a the Northern Plains sending a frontal
passage through our area. This weak front will bring some cool air
over the Intermountain West keeping our temperatures mostly in the
70`s for both days but some isolated 80 temperatures will be
possible as warm dry air starts to also push in from the West. As
more of the dry air begins to filter in over night RH values West of
I-25 will start to drop into the teens while everything east will
stay into the 30`s and 40`s. This dry air will most likely follow
the upper level ridge that sets up on the West coast and slightly
pushes east. The ridge does look to compress on the back half of the
work week to allow some low chances for rainfall as more shortwaves
push into Pacific Northwest from the Alaskan Bay.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Low CIGs, dropping flight categories down to IFR and/or LIFR, have
moved in and are impacting KCYS, KBFF, KSNY, and KAIA. Low CIGs will
eventually erode a bit later this morning, then aviation concerns
turn to afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the CWA. There is
increasing confidence in strong to severe storms across far eastern
Wyoming and western Nebraska this afternoon and I tried to reflect
this in the TAFs. There remains the potential that storms will
linger into the evening hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...RZ