Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

909
FXUS65 KCYS 241738
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1038 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of strong gusty winds will continue through late
  Wednesday evening, with periods of very windy conditions
  continuing through Friday. High Wind Watches and Warnings are
  currently in effect for most of southeast Wyoming and portions
  of the southern Nebraska Panhandle.

- Elevated fire weather concerns late this morning into early
  this afternoon for far southeast Wyoming and the southern
  Nebraska Panhandle.

- Mountain snowfall, with some rain/snow mix across the lower
  elevations, expected late Tuesday and into Wednesday. 8 to 16
  inches of snow possible across the mountains. Winter Weather
  Advisories are in effect for the higher mountains through
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

A few notable changes to the previous forecast made early this
morning with High Wind Headlines and Winter Weather Advisories
in generally good shape. Upgraded the High Wind Watch over
eastern Laramie County, Banner county, and Kimball county to a
Warning, mainly for Wednesday, with models in good agreement and
guidance showing a high potential for 58+ MPH gusts and/or
sustained winds of 40+ for an hour. Also, added the Saratoga
area/Upper North Platte River Valley zone to the warning with
high res guidance continuing to show some mountain wave activity
becoming an issue with decent lee-side subsidence to the east
of the Sierra Madre Range. Another good chance to hit criteria
is when the front goes through the region on Wednesday. Although
eastern Laramie County starts this afternoon, believe there is
enough of a chance to hit high wind criteria both days to
justify the two day Warning, even though Wednesday should be the
main event.

So far this morning, Arlington/Elk Mountain and Bordeaux have
hit criteria with gusts up to 62 MPH and a gust of 59 MPH
respectively. Surprised there isn`t higher gusts, or the gusts
aren`t more widespread since models are showing 60 knots at
700mb and a pretty strong surface pressure gradient. A quick
glance at the model soundings show the lack of a pronounced
temperature inversion near mountain-top, which may be limiting
the wind gusts to some degree. Expect this to change through
the day and into tonight as all model soundings show the
near-700mb inversion strengthening over southeast Wyoming by
this afternoon as the strong Pacific jet max translates into
Wyoming. Kept everything else as is for Tuesday, although models
have backed off on the 700mb flow a bit. GFS and NAM Omega and
1000-500mb thickness continue to show the classic mountain wave
signature setting up this afternoon through tonight. This is
when some of the strongest winds may be observed with gusts up
to 80 MPH possible in the wind prone areas and also the lee-side
of the higher mountain ranges, possibly including the northern
Laramie Range.

Wednesday will be similar with a more widespread high wind event
likely as a stationary front slides southward across the region.
The front will result in better mixing with higher lapse rates
near the frontal boundary, with portions of the western Nebraska
panhandle seeing gusts around 60 MPH for a few hours. Kept the
High Wind Watch going for Goshen, Scotts Bluff County, and
Cheyenne County mainly because of limited confidence in the
position of the front. If the front is already south and/or west
of these zones, winds may be much weaker during the afternoon.
We still have some time left before Wednesday afternoon, so kept
the Watch as is. Expect some of the higher gusts of this event
to occur on Wednesday, especially for the towns and cities along
I-80. Can`t rule out some gusts over 70 MPH.

The same system and strong upper jet will also be responsible
for some low elevation rain/snow and mountain snowfall starting
mainly Tuesday afternoon and continuing into Wednesday (along
the front). A few models have gone very aggressive with mountain
snowfall during this run, showing near 3 feet of snow for the
Snowy Range. High res guidance and the NAM are much more
consistent with only a slight increase in QPF compared to 24
hours ago. Increased snow accumulations between 8 to 16 inches
with some of the higher peaks closer to 20 inches. Keep in mind,
this is nearly a 32 to 36 hour total and will not fall all at
once. Will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going, but will
closely monitor snowfall rates in case we need to upgrade later
on Tuesday. The last few runs of the HRRR increase the
confidence for the Winter Weather Advisory though with periods
of moderate snow and some lulls in the steady snowfall early
tonight and then again early Wednesday morning. Little to no
snow is expected to accumulate below 7000 feet due to the
relatively warmish airmass. Will need to keep an eye on
Arlington/Elk Mountain area for accumulating snowfall, but the
relatively mild temperatures may keep the pavement warm enough
to limit overall travel hazards.

By Wednesday night, starting to doubt there will be much of a
break in the high winds across the wind prone areas (and maybe
wind prone adjacent zones as well). Models show the surface
front not pushing far enough south and west to end the high wind
threat, especially west of I-25. Models and in-house wind
guidance still shows a notable decrease in winds and pressure
gradients along the I-25, at least until later in the week.
Nudged winds up a little more Wednesday night and we may need to
extend portions of the High Wind Warning through the end of the
week, especially for Arlington/Elk Mountain and possibly the
I-80 Summit.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

The CWA will remain in a NW flow pattern on the eastern periphery of
a ridge this weekend, resulting in above-average temperatures
(shocker!) and dry conditions. Thursday and Friday will continue to
be windy in the presence of a 50-60 knot 700 mb jet, which will
induce a classic mountain wave pattern across the Snowy and Laramie
ranges. Model cross-sections indicate closely-packed isentropes at
mountain-top, indicating a stable layer which is favorable for
strong downsloping winds. However winds aren`t entirely
perpendicular to the ranges and there is no mean-state critical
level (reversal in the wind direction with height), so while it
will be windy, winds likely won`t be as impressive as Tuesday
and Wednesday. Omega fields also show this mountain wave
pattern, with strong subsidence leeside of the Laramie Range. As
it stands, in-house guidance has the highest probabilities of
winds greater than 60 mph overnight Thursday into Friday, with
chances diminishing later Friday and into the weekend. With
gusty winds, lack of moisture/dry soils given our drought
conditions, and relative humidity values less than 20%, fire
hazards will need to be monitored at this time particularly in
our Nebraska counties.

Flow will become more zonal on Saturday resulting in warm and dry
conditions ahead of a shortwave trough that will bring small chances
of precipitation to our CWA on Sunday. The forcing for ascent looks
to be relatively weak, but PWAT anomalies are progged to be 2-3
standard deviations above climatology, so any help from the
shortwave trough or the terrain will result in a few rain and/or
snow showers. We remain anomalously warm into early next week as 500
mb heights rise and flow remains out of the WNW. While we might get
some meager help regarding moisture on Sunday (here is to hoping),
we will remain relatively dry with no significant chances for
widespread precipitation in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1037 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: Very windy after 15z for all terminals with
gusts likely between 35 to 50 knots. KCDR and KAIA will have slightly
weaker winds, but still gusting to 35 knots. Winds will slowly
diminish after sunset with LLWS likely for the southeast Wyoming
terminals after 03z Wednesday.

Light rain is possible for KRWL, KLAR, and KCYS with some light snow
mixing in tonight at KLAR. Do not expect VIS below 3 miles, but CIGS
under 3000 feet are possible, especially around KLAR and KRWL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ104-105-107-
     109-110-115-118.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ106-116-117.
     High Wind Watch through Wednesday afternoon for WYZ108.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST
     Wednesday for WYZ112-114.
     High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ113.
     High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST
     Wednesday for WYZ119.
NE...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for NEZ019-055.
     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for NEZ020-
     054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...MM