Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

405
FXUS65 KCYS 202256
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
456 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures are expected to
  continue through mid-week.

- The next chance for precipitation and temperatures closer to
  seasonal averages will be late week, Thursday night, into the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Another beautiful day is in store across a majority of the CWA with
ample sunshine under a west-southwesterly flow regime aloft that
will remain dominant through today. This flow will support warm-air
advection into our region, bumping 700-mb temps back into the 4 to
8C range, which reflects nicely at the surface. So, expect highs
this afternoon to top out in the low to mid 60s west of I-25 and the
upper 60s to low 70s east of the corridor. Heading into the
overnight hours, the lows look seasonable as they dip down to around
40 degrees for many locations. Taking a look at the latest water
vapor imagery, within the flow regime there is a weak shortwave that
is moving across the Central Rockies, this feature will provide
sufficient ascent for some isolated to scattered showers later this
afternoon primarily over the Snowy Range. Confidence in
precipitation development and coverage remains low given the
relatively weak forcing and dry air that is in place. In reality,
all we may see from this system is increasing cloudiness with the
possibility of breezy winds underneath. Therefore, kept PoPs 15
percent or less so it doesn`t show up in the forecast due to the low
confidence. Jumping ahead a day, for Wednesday, looks to be another
beautiful day as the aforementioned shortwave will be a distant
memory as it moves off to the east. It will be replaced as a
transient upper-level ridge quickly moves in overhead. High
temperatures will top out mid 60s west of I-25 and low 70s east of
the corridor. With the ridge remaining the dominant upper-level
feature and little in the way of appreciable forcing for ascent, dry
conditions are expected through Wednesday afternoon. As the ridge
pushes off to the east, weather conditions begin to change late
Wednesday evening as another weak shortwave slides closer to the
CWA, this will bring a surge of clouds that will keep our nighttime
lows a tad warmer with temperature only dipping into the 40s to
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Thursday...The beginning of an unsettled and wetter pattern will
commence as the initial negatively tilted shortwave trough aloft,
emanating from the parent upper trough over southern Nevada, moves
northeast across our counties during the daylight hours. Dynamics
associated with this perturbation aloft and orographic effects will
produce scattered showers in the afternoon across Carbon County,
including our Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges. A lull in shower
coverage is expected Thursday night as the southeast Wyoming is
somewhat dry slotted. Brisk southerly low level winds will persist
Thursday night, along with cloud cover to keep minimum temperatures
rather mild.

Friday...The parent shortwave trough aloft, negatively tilted, moves
from northern Utah near dawn, to northeast Wyoming by suppertime,
with the majority of our forecast locations being dry slotted, as
the bulk of the shortwave trough moisture and lift will be over
western Wyoming and central Montana. Although, with the approach of
the Pacific origin cold front and frontal lifting, as well as some
mid level moisture, you can anticipate, scattered afternoon showers
for areas bounded roughly by Laramie, Wheatland, Torrington and
Cheyenne, with the showers moving and/or developing into far eastern
Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle in the evening, before showers
mainly dissipate late as the rather potent Pacific origin cold front
sweeps eastward across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, with
orographically driven showers falling across the Northern Laramie,
Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges.

Saturday...A windy and colder day is in tap in the decent thickness
packing behind the Pacific origin cold front, with winds decreasing
in the afternoon as pressure gradients slacken off. The next closed
low aloft moves near the Four Corners by early evening, and with
orographics combined with diffluence aloft and adequate low and mid
level moisture, you can expect scattered afternoon showers from the
Sierra Madre Range eastward across the Snowy Range and across the
Laramie Valley including Laramie, and to the southern Laramie Range.
Dry elsewhere, though with cloud cover.

Sunday...Confidence in model solutions is rather low to moderate, at
this juncture, as an initial spoke of shortwave trough energy is
progged to move north and northeast across our counties, possibly
producing scattered to numerous showers dynamically driven, with
cold air damming near the low levels producing low level mechanical
lift over and east of the Laramie Range. FOr now, we will blend with
our neighboring offices early in the day, keeping POPS relatively
low and mainly southeast of a Laramie to Alliance line. Although
model trends will need to be watched closely for a possible
rain/snow scenario early in the day. A cool, overcast afternoon
looks quite plausible as the shortwave trough aloft opens up over
central Wyoming with cold surface air upslope remaining underneath
the southwest flow aloft, which may make for a colder day, than
currently forecasted, as model trends come into better agreement.

Monday...A decent shortwave trough aloft, positively tilted, moves
across the Dakotas, with cold surface high pressure remaining dammed
up along and east of the Interstate 25 corridor and the Laramie
Range. Confidence in precipitation forecast is minimal in this
progressive pattern, although with forecast experience, believe
there is a distinct possibility for colder temperatures than
currently forecasted if current model trends continue.

Tuesday...Day seven shows the typical model discrepancies in this
progressive synoptic pattern, leading to a fairly low to moderate
confidence forecast. Likely a dry scenario with cold northerly flow
at mid and upper levels and relatively low precipitable water
values. Again, with 700 mb temperatures progged near -1 Celsius, if
true, our maximum temperatures will need to be lowered eventually as
models come into better congruency.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 427 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

High confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF period, with high-
based cumulus/-SHRA across SE Wyoming dissipating shortly after
sunset as daytime heating ceases. Expect light and variable winds
overnight into tomorrow morning as a 1016 mb surface high
establishes itself over the Central High Plains, resulting in dry
and tranquil conditions. Highest potential for low cloud cover looks
to be to the east of our area, so will need to monitor satellite
trends this evening to see if lower CIGs sneak into KSNY, KAIA, and
perhaps KBFF around the 06Z issuance, but not expecting this to
occur based off latest high-resolution guidance.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...NB