Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

807
FXUS65 KCYS 101740
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1140 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and warmer weather will prevail for Sunday through
  Wednesday, with thunderstorms possibly returning late in the
  week.

- Near Critical fire weather conditions possible over east
  central Wyoming and the northern Nebraska Panhandle Monday
  afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Current Satellite loop and KCYS radar imagery shows the upper
level trough beginning to exit the region with clearing skies
north of Interstate 80. A band of showers with embedded thunder
has developed along the I-80 corridor from Cheyenne to Sidney,
with scattered showers expected to continue over the next 4
hours to around sunrise. This activity should move south and
dissipate shortly after sunrise with sunny skies and dry weather
expected through Sunday afternoon. After a chilly morning this
morning, the cooler air aloft and near the surface will quickly
move east of the area today as 700mb temperatures climb above
5c. High temperatures in the 60s to low 70s are expected this
afternoon, warmest over eastern Wyoming and the northern
Nebraska Panhandle.

Even warmer temperatures are forecast to start of the work-week
as a broad ridge axis aloft moves over the Front Range. 700mb
temperatures are forecast to climb above 10c for the whole area,
which translates to afternoon high temperatures in the upper 70s
to upper 80s. The lowest elevations of western Nebraska may see
highs around 90 with dry westerly winds. Other than some fire
weather concerns, quiet weather is expected to start off the
week with pleasant weather. Models do show a shallow cold front
moving in from the north late Monday and Monday night, resulting
in slightly cooler temperatures but remaining above average for
mid May.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

The general pattern going into Tuesday is one of upper level
ridging. A rather large high pressure system will be building over
the Four Corners Region with an axis of it passing through. This
should allow temperatures to reach the mid 70s to low 80s. We do
have fire weather conditions showing up in the interior mountains
near Rawlins this day. Humidities appear very low, possibly getting
into the low teens with gusty conditions. Elsewhere, dry conditions
may favor some elevated concerns. These conditons should persist
into Wednesday where some spots in valleys east of the Laramie Range
could reach the 90s and near daily record temperatures. Humidities
plummet given the favorable environment for deep layer mixing.
Relative humidities reaching the mid and low teens are a
possibility. Attention to conditions these few days should be
maintained for fire weather interests. Thursday a plume of monsoonal
like moisture makes its way north from the Eastern Pacific into our
area. The ridge gets pushed southeast into Texas allowing increasing
chance of isolated to scattered showers and storms. PoPs are low at
this time, and surface layer mixing will still be high creating dry
conditions at the surface. So, the most likely outcome Thursday are
the continued fire weather risk, but maybe throw in a few dry and
windy thunderstorms. About this time a compact, but high amplitude
trough will be passing over the northwestern Pacific Coast. Global
models differ on the speed and strength of this feature. The GFS is
much more aggressive with this trough and is a bit slower/south with
the progression as it reaches our area Friday. ECMWF is a bit more
progressive, weaker and northward with its trajectory. Both have the
general negative tilt form to the trough which tend to be more
dynamic than positive and flatter systems. The timing is somewhat
important from a severe weather angle, a slower and more southward
system may allow for the favorable left exit region of the jet to
the south of the trough to be in phase with the better daytime
heating. At the moment the models make this a more north and
eastward event. A dry slot on the south side of the system will
create sinking air and may tighten pressure gradients in the 700
mbar enough to create strong winds. Indeed our machine learning
models highlight an elevated risk Friday morning and afternoon
(~40%) for west to east mountain gap flow locations. Conditions area
wide continue to by dry and warm, so fire weather is likely to
continue, even going into Saturday. Fuels in our Nebraska Panhandle
zones are not in good shape with little green up reported. The
snowfall received on the eastern slopes and ridges of the Laramie
Range has caused some greenup with vegetation. The periods of recent
rain may stave off more critical fire concerns going into this
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period at all
terminals. This afternoon some cumulus development is expected
with the onset of daytime heating. Ceilings are being observed
around 5000 feet with these clouds. The LCLs are expected to
rise through the remainder of the afternoon as daytime mixing
dries the planetary boundary layer. Overnight a low level jet
is expected to manifest over the Nebraska Panhandle terminals in
response to surface cyclogenesis well to the north. Winds may
be at times breezy and variable during the transition period
from a north wind to a southerly from the jet development
through the morning hours. Wind shear is not expected to be an
issue. Tomorrow looks to be mostly clear with slightly stronger
winds. Gusts out of the west or southwest at 20-25 kts can be
expected at most terminals.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...RV