Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

699
FXUS65 KCYS 071115
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
515 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM Friday for
  portions of southeast Wyoming west of Interstate 25, including
  much of Carbon and Albany Counties for gusty winds and low
  humidity.

- Hot temperatures return Friday through Sunday with slightly
  cooler temperatures Monday through next Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1212 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Friday will be a pleasant day across the region as we sit firmly
under a ridge of high pressure that is building in from the Desert
Southwest, like a former co-worker would always say in synoptic set-
up like this, `big bubble, no trouble`. The aforementioned ridge will
keep us under west northwest flow and dry through the day Friday
into the overnight hours. As we sit in the northeast quadrant, which
plays a part in what to expect in the short term with regards to
elevated to critical fire weather concerns, especially in Albany and
Carbon Counties. This orientation is not be favorable for a
monsoonal push of moisture, so we will remain dry through this
forecast period. Minimum RH values tank over the next day down to
between 5 and 10 percent. Winds are not what we look for, but they
will become slightly elevated through the daytime hours and with how
dry it has been and how dry it will be, Red Flag Warnings remain in
effect across Albany and Carbon Counties, due in part to poor
overnight recoveries as well. Elsewhere across the CWA, no Red Flag
Warnings are anticipated at this time since they will stay below
critical thresholds that we look for with regards to issuing Red
Flag Warnings.

Onto other news, said ridge will continue to keep it hot, which is
depicted with 700MB temperatures surging up into the 16-20 degrees C
range by Friday afternoon. This will be reflected nicely at the
surface with highs topping out in the low to mid 90s for many
locations across the region. Slightly cooler west of the I-25
corridor where highs will top out in and around 90 degrees F. Taking
a brief look at winds over the next 24 hours, not much to write home
about there either as no high wind events are in the foreseeable
future.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The highlight of the long term forecast period will be a slow
transition back out of the hot and dry weather pattern back into
more seasonal temperatures and occasional rainfall chances. Another
weekend heat wave is on tap for Saturday and Sunday. For the fifth
consecutive weekend, a broad upper level ridge aloft will support
above average temperatures across our area. 700-mb temperatures
around +16C to +20C are not quite as extreme as the last two weekend
heatwaves, but still sufficiently high for continued near record
heat. Expect highs both days in the lower 90s for Laramie, Rawlins,
and Saratoga, and then mid 90s to lower 100s over the High Plains.
Currently, record highs are only forecast at Laramie and Cheyenne,
but all locations will be within 1 to 3 degrees of daily record
highs. This heat wave does not look as likely to challenge all-time
or monthly records, but we will certainly be hot. The chance for
storms looks very limited on Saturday, but we will finally start to
see precipitable water return to near average on Sunday. The upper
level ridge will start to weaken and slowly nudge eastward, allowing
monsoon moisture to fill to the north once again. We may see a few
showers or thunderstorms creeping into our southern mountains by
Sunday, but this will probably still be quite limited. While the
probability for rainfall will be low, forecast soundings favorable
for dry microbursts, so gusty winds may be the initial concern as
moisture tries to return to the area.

Ensembles show precipitable water continuing to gradually improve
through the week ahead as monsoon moisture expands to the north once
again. Coverage will probably be fairly limited early in the week,
but look for higher chances for precipitation towards the middle to
later part of the work week. While we are still a ways out for
details, this doesn`t really look like a pure monsoon pattern. A few
intrusions of shortwave troughs to our north may keep vertical wind
shear high enough to get a few strong to severe thunderstorms. As
moisture mixes through the boundary layer, we should also ease the
fire weather concerns as humidity climbs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the duration of
this TAF period with light winds at the start. Winds begin to ramp
up at all the sites by the early afternoon hours and diminish by
the late evening. No other aviation concerns are anticipated
for this forecast period.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for WYZ420>422-425>427.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...RZ