Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

614
FXUS65 KCYS 072325
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue
  through the work week.

-Critical fire weather conditions are possible Friday afternoon
 into the early evening.

-A pattern change Sunday into Monday will drop temperatures
 back to near seasonal normals, and bring renewed chances for
 rainfall primarily in Carbon and Converse counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

A slightly cooler day today despite high temperatures still
remaining 10 to 15 degrees above average for this time of year and
even a few record highs possible west of the Laramie Range. The
longwave ridge that has been responsible for the record warmth over
SE Wyoming and W Nebraska these past few days has started to dampen,
partially as a response to slight cooling of 700 mb temperatures.
Temperatures this afternoon across SE Wyoming have again soared into
the mid to upper-70s, with Rawlins already having broken their daily
record of 76F set back in 2020 and 1979, whereas Laramie is
currently just shy of breaking their daily record of 77F set in 2020
and 1956. Although those in the Panhandle are not shattering
records, locations are still well above average with temperatures
reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.

Current visible satellite imagery is showing some cumulus
development, primarily over the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges, which
is similar to what we saw yesterday. Due to the lack of any large-
scale forcing for ascent and negligible instability, decided to keep
PoPs below 15% even for our southern most areas as any deeper
cumulus cloud would struggle to produce rainfall reaching the
surface as dewpoints are currently in the mid to upper 20s thanks to
strong heating and mixing. Tonight, we can expect another mild night
(at least relative to climatology), with locations east of the I-25
corridor only dipping into the upper 40s to low 50s, and locations
west of the Laramie Range falling into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Locations west of I-25 were adjusted downward from NBM guidance as
winds are generally expected to be light under mostly clear skies.

Heading into Thursday, temperatures will again be on the toasty
side, with highs 15-20 degrees above climatology as we remain under
an anomalous ridge characterized by 500 mb heights nearing +2 sigma
relative to climatology. Again, a few locations west of the Laramie
Range (i.e. Laramie) are at risk of breaking daily record highs.
Locations in the Panhandle will also be very warm, though likely
just shy of record highs, with forecast temperatures mainly in the
low 80s and dry conditions. Afternoon RH values are just critical
thresholds, however wind gusts are expected to remain below critical
thresholds, so no fire highlights have been introduced at this time.
Expect another mild and dry night again underneath the ridge and
overall tranquil conditions.

The general flow pattern will become more WSW on Friday as the ridge
axis shifts to our east. Strong lee cyclogenesis is expected to
occur well to our north over the Canadian Prairies ahead of a rather
broad shortwave trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. Despite a
moisture surge embedded in the WSW flow with LREF guidance showing
PWAT above the 75th percentile relative to climatology, mostly dry
conditions are expected due to the lack of any large-scale forcing
for ascent. Ensemble guidance does hint at a few weak embedded
shortwave trough, so PoPs may have to be adjusted as we get closer
in range, but for now no widespread precipitation is expected. The
main concern will be critical fire weather conditions, as we will
experience a notable uptick in our wind speeds due to strengthening
gradient flow in response to lee cyclogenesis occurring to our
north. With a more favorable downsloping pattern in place and lee
troughing east of the higher terrain, gusty WSW winds will result in
critical fire weather conditions, primarily for portions of SE
Wyoming and the extreme northern Nebraska Panhandle. A Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for Friday afternoon and early evening for
these areas as daytime RH values below 15% are expected with gusty
winds as high as 40 mph. Red Flag conditions will need to be
monitored as we get closer to this time frame as details become more
apparent. High temperatures will continue to be well-above seasonal
values, with many of our Nebraska sites approaching record daily
high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, to perhaps even 90
degrees north of the Pine Ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

After a quiet start to October, the weather pattern will turn more
active this weekend into much of next week. After the ridge moves
off to the east at the end of this week, southwest flow aloft will
pull in improved mid to upper level moisture into our area. By
Saturday afternoon, precipitable water exceeds the 99th percentile
of climatology per the NAEFS mean over much of Wyoming. Elevated
moisture will gradually mix into the boundary layer during this
time. While we will still be somewhat dry, the added moisture should
be enough to keep RH from dropping below critical values Saturday
afternoon. While we will remain breezy under the continued southwest
flow, critical fire weather conditions are unlikely. Instead,
increased moisture aloft should support the development of a few
afternoon/evening showers and possibly some thunder. Saturday`s
temperatures will still be 10-15+ degrees above seasonal averages,
but should be a touch cooler than Friday as the ridge moves off to
the east and cloud cover increases.

The stubborn western ridge pattern will finally break down on Sunday
as a powerful Pacific trough dives into the western US. Ensembles
have converged onto a solution in which the upper level low closes
off over the west coast and the parent trough stalls to our west.
The ridge, over the central US by this time, remains firmly in place
and prevents the trough from progressing eastward. Meanwhile,
southwest flow ahead of the closing off upper level low will absorb
the remnant moisture from Hurricane Rachel in the eastern Pacific
ocean. Closer to home, a surface high will push into the area Sunday
morning behind a more subtle northern branch trough. The result of
this will be a frontal boundary stalled across the state of Wyoming
from northwest to southeast Sunday into Monday. Expect much cooler
temperatures across the entire area Sunday. Highs will fall about
10F from Saturday`s values along I-80 from Cheyenne to Rawlins, but
24-hour temperature drops could be 15 to 25F or even 30F around the
Douglas to Chadron corridor due to combined impacts of the cooler
airmass and increased cloud cover. By Sunday night, precipitable
water looks to surge up to between the climatological 99th
percentile, just short of seasonal maximums. Positive theta-e
advection overrunning stalled frontogenesis will lead to more
widespread showers across Wyoming Sunday into Sunday night. However,
models have trended further west with the location of the most
favorable lift, now focusing on central and western Wyoming.
Therefore, the probability for beneficial rainfall has decreased for
much of the high plains, but further north and west has better odds.
NBM probabilities of exceeding 0.25" of rainfall exceed 50% for
areas around Saratoga towards Douglas and further west.
Probabilities are only around 5 to 20% for Laramie, Cheyenne,
Scottsbluff, etc. Due to the tropical nature of this moisture
influx, temperatures will be rather warm relative to typical
precipitation events this time of year. Current forecasts for snow
level are hovering around 10-12 kft, meaning that precipitation
should fall as rain for all but the peaks of the Snowy and Sierra
Madre ranges.

Forcing for lift largely comes to an end by around midday Monday,
but plentiful moisture and unsettled weather will remain over much
of the western CONUS for days afterwards. The northern branch trough
is expected to pull away, but leave the closed upper level low over
or near California. Upper level south to southwest flow ahead of
this system will continue to advect improved moisture into the Four
Corners states, and possibly as far north as our area. Temperatures
will be close to seasonal norms Monday onward, which will probably
feel chilly coming on the heels of weeks of near record warmth.
Overnight lows will probably still be on the mild side due to higher
dewpoints. As such, we may kick off the first freeze of the year
towards one of the latest on record for several areas of the High
Plains. Freeze probabilities are only around 20% for early next week
around Cheyenne and Scottsbluff. The next window for more
appreciable precipitation appears to be the middle to latter part of
next week when the closed low finally makes its exit off to the
east. Several moving parts make this a fairly uncertain forecast.
This includes potential for another remnant tropical system getting
pulled out of the East Pacific, combined with an uncertain track for
a closed upper level a week out. Most of the area has about a 50%
chance for 0.25" of QPF or more in the Wednesday-Thursday time
period, but also about a 20% for 1.0" or more. The second phase of
this event has a relatively high ceiling on precipitation amounts,
if all of the pieces come together perfectly, which as always, is
relatively unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions will dominate across all the terminals for the
duration of this TAF period. Some model guidance is hinting to
the development of low clouds in and around KAIA, due to low
confidence, kept any mention out of this set of TAFs. Any
remaining gusty winds will wind down near sunset, then expect
generally variable winds less than 10 knots across all the sites
through the overnight hours into Thursday afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for WYZ417>422-425-427-432.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NEZ434.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...RZ