Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

209
FXUS65 KCYS 031921
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
121 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue, mainly west of
  I-25.

- Afternoon and evening storms, some of which may become strong
  to severe, will be possible most days through the weekend into
  next week along and east of I-25.

- Hot temperatures expected by early next week, with highs
  topping out in the mid 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

It is early July and the weather pattern will not differ from the
norm for this time of year. Lets take a brief look aloft, at 500mb
we will have zonal flow, west to east, over the region with embedded
weak shortwave energy. In this pattern, with the added energy aloft,
expect a continuation of isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, generally confined to locations along and east of the
I-25 corridor into the Nebraska Panhandle. With forcing being
limited, ample CAPE in place, between 1500 to 2500 J/kg, coupled
with the energy aloft will overcome any limiting factor. As the
aforementioned shortwave energy lifts northeast towards the
northern portions of Nebraska by this afternoon, exiting the CWA
by this evening will mark the end of the thunderstorm threat
for today. Modest 0-6km shear profiles, a strong to severe
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out, especially north of the North
Platte River. Hence, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) slight
risk (2 out of 5) in this general region. SPC has a marginal
risk (1 out of 5) that extends to I-25. Winds and large hail
look to be the main threat with this activity being isolated in
nature. Rinse and repeat, expect a similar set up for July 4th,
as a more potent VORT max digs south into the high plains the
best chance for severe thunderstorms will shift towards the I-80
corridor from Laramie to Cheyenne and over towards Sidney
Nebraska. SPC has increased the areal coverage of the Slight
Risk to include all of western Nebraska and far southeast
Wyoming, including Cheyenne. Similar chances for severe are
expected with mainly strong gusty winds and large hail as the
primary threats. At the tail end of this short term period,
ridging will amplify into our CWA. Shifting to temperatures,
with ample warm air in the mid-levels, expect highs to soar into
the upper 80s to mid 90s by the tail end of this forecast
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Sunday...With warm temperatures aloft, the CIN, convective
inhibition, will increase markedly with 700 mb temperatures near 17
Celsius, limiting convective potential, and allowing for at best,
isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms along and east of I-25.
Another warming trend begins based on 700 mb temperature trends.

Monday...Similar synoptic pattern to Sunday, with enough mid level
moisture to produce isolated to widely scattered afternoon and
evening thunderstorms, primarily east of I-25 where convergence at
low levels will be maximized.

Tuesday...Beneficial rain appears increasingly likely as low and mid
level moisture increases markedly, while a shortwave trough aloft,
also known as an atmospheric perturbation, moves overhead near peak
heating, sparking scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially
east of a Douglas to Laramie line, with isolated convection further
west in the drier airmass.

Wednesday...Shortwave ridging builds aloft and with decreasing
atmospheric moisture in the low and mid levels, expect a
corresponding decrease in areal coverage of showers and
thunderstorms.

Thursday...Expect a slight increase in afternoon and evening shower
and thunderstorm coverage, as a shortwave trough aloft passes
overhead near peak heating, though coverage will be limited and
scattered due to warm temperatures aloft producing some convective
inhibition, also known as CIN.

Friday...GFS showing a decent discontinuity in PWAT, precipitable
water values, and low and mid level moisture from dry punch across
southeast Wyoming, to a buoyant and moist atmosphere across western
Nebraska. Since it is still day seven, our relatively low POPS for
our eastern counties looks decent for now, though later shifts may
see chances for thunderstorms, particularly across western Nebraska
increase for the afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

As with the past three days, the synoptic weather pattern is
quite similar, showing a shortwave trough aloft moving across
southeast Wyoming this afternoon, and to western Nebraska early
this evening. A low level convergence axis, and dryline, along
with some mid level instability will set up near the Wyoming and
Nebraska state line this afternoon, with isolated to widely
scattered showers thunderstorms first developing across
southeast Wyoming between 19-22Z, and developing and increasing
in areal coverage as the storms propagate into western Nebraska
this evening, before ending by late evening with clearing skies
thereafter.

Wyoming TAFS...VFR prevails. Based on the 16Z HRRR run, which
has shown good continuity from previous runs, have high
confidence in isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing after 19Z, and affecting the area
until 00Z or 01Z. Confidence is high enough in the 16Z HRRR to
go with VCTS for Laramie for much of the afternoon for isolated
high based thunderstorms, and to maintain PROB30 for Cheyenne
for late afternoon with erratic and sudden gusts up to 35 knots.
Skies will clear out this evening. Gradients and mix down winds
indicate gusty winds as usual until sunset and after mid morning
on Independence Day.

Nebraska TAFS...VFR prevails, with the caveat that there will be
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 21Z to
03Z timeframe, with a few of the storms late this afternoon and
early evening producing erratic wind gusts of 38 to 48 knots,
with possibly higher wind gusts, in excess of 50 knots, from
isolated severe thunderstorms. Likelihood of strongest
thunderstorm wind gusts will be at Chadron and Alliance, closer
to the best low level convergence and deeper low level moisture
along the 850/700 theta-e maximum ridge axis. Expect localized
MVFR in visibilities due to thunderstorms. Skies will clear out
after mid evening. Gusty gradient and mix down winds will occur
until sunset.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN