Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

300
FXUS65 KCYS 232036
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
236 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected once
  again on Tuesday, mainly in southeast Wyoming this time.

- All severe hazards including isolated tornadoes are possible
  today, but large, damaging hail remains the primary concern.

- Confidence is lower in strong to severe storms surviving into
  western Nebraska today due to a strong capping inversion.

- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Wednesday through Thursday. Storms will have the potential to
  become strong to severe once again.

- Thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday will also increase the
  flash flood potential, particularly over recent burn areas.

- Warming temperatures, falling humidity, and increasing winds
  will increase fire weather concerns Saturday onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Another active day is on track for the area today as our stormy
weather pattern continues. Last night, a moisture laden surface high
pressure system surged westward across the area. Higher dewpoints
have slipped west of the Laramie range, though a modest boundary is
still apparent near the terrain. Further east, this cooler airmass
has resulted in a very strong capping inversion setting up, with
satellite imagery showing broken low cloud coverage holding strong
northeast of a Wheatland to Pine Bluffs line. The cap has mostly
broken down in Carbon and Albany counties by now, but it is
still present in Laramie and Platte counties. Areas that are
sunny now are expected to erode the cap over the next few hours,
but those still in cloud cover may struggle to become uncapped
at anytime this afternoon or evening. A modest jet streak
remains overhead on the southwest flank of an upper level low
well to our northeast. This is continuing to produce strong deep
layer shear across the area, exceeding 50 knots in the 0-6km
layer. Instability is a little weaker today compared to
yesterday, with MLCAPE currently around 500 to 1000 J/kg
expected to increase to around 1000 to 1500 J/kg by late
afternoon. Overall, this sets the state for another round of
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms today, but the risk
area will be shifted to the south and west of where it has been
the last few days.

Cumulus clouds are already going up in Albany and western Laramie
counties as of this writing. This activity will make up the first
round of thunderstorms, expected to primarily impact these two
counties between now and 6PM or so. This may extend into southern
Platte/Goshen counties as well as the southern panhandle, but there
is lower confidence in storms surviving that far due to the strong
capping inversion in place. Meanwhile, a second round is expected to
initiate between about 4 and 6PM generally in northern Carbon county
along the stalled moisture boundary in the area. This round will
have the potential to develop into a longer track, discrete
supercell thunderstorm and track to the east or southeast through
the evening hours. Again, we should see this activity begin to
weaken or struggle east of the I-25 corridor, and in particular,
into western Nebraska. The primary hazards remain large, damaging
hail especially with any discrete supercell thunderstorms that
manage to develop. However, all severe hazards, including a few
isolated tornadoes remain possible. Low-level wind shear is fairly
weak right now, but this is expected to increase later this
afternoon and evening with today`s moisture return surging the
stalled frontal boundary back to the south and west.

There is some concern for nocturnal, elevated convective activity
tonight. Hi-res models are not showing this, but they traditionally
struggle with this type of hazard. Overrunning lift on top of the
frontal boundary will be occurring through about 4AM in place of
elevated instability. Therefore, we are maintaining 20 to 40% PoPs
through the overnight period once again. Tonight`s fog will probably
be fairly widespread with the strong moisture return. This was added
to the official forecast. Confidence is too low for any Dense Fog
Advisories now due to uncertainty in the exact location of the fog,
but we will need to monitor this overnight.

Wednesday looks like another active day across the area. Following
tonight`s moisture surge, east to southeast flow will be present
over the High Plains with plentiful low-level moisture pushing
dewpoints into the 50s to low 60s. A vort-max will push in from the
west over the top of an upper level ridge near the US/Mexico border.
This feature will pull in abundant Pacific moisture in a pseudo-
monsoonal surge. The combination of moisture from both sources will
push precipitable water well above the 90th percentile of
climatology, and even close to the 99th percentile. Low-level
capping will be a concern once again over the High Plains tomorrow,
but we are still expecting fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms to kick off early afternoon and spread eastward
through the evening. Strong shear will remain in place Wednesday,
supporting the potential for a few storms to become strong to
severe. Expect much higher coverage of thunderstorms overall, but a
similar risk for severe weather as not all of the storms will be
strong to severe. Tomorrow will also add localized flash flooding
back into the forecast due to the plentiful moisture and potential
for multiple rounds of thunderstorms. The South Fork fire burn area
is of particular concern. Forcing for lift will continue all through
the night, which will likely keep a few showers and storms on the
radar all the way into Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Thursday...Westerly flow aloft continues, and with surface low
pressure developing over south central Wyoming producing a
convergence axis from Douglas to Laramie, and plenty of low and mid
level moisture, and 850/700 mb theta-e ridge axis from Casper to
Cheyenne, along with CAPE of 1000 to 1800 J/kg and bulk shear near
50 knots, we anticipate some storms to become severe, with large
hail and damaging winds as the primary threats east of I-25, with
some locally heavy rainers due to flow aloft.

Friday...Low amplitude ridging develops over our forecast area, with
some drier air noted advecting in. However, still expect isolated to
widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms to form along a
low level convergence axis along the I-25 corridor. A few strong and
possibly severe storms may occur.

Saturday...The flow aloft turns southwest and increases in speed,
with considerably drier air moving across our counties, producing a
dry day with a warming trend as 700 mb temperatures spike near 19
Celsius.

Sunday through Tuesday...A broad trough aloft develops across the
northern and central Rockies, with dry southwest flow aloft, leading
to only isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms at most in the
afternoons and evening. Slightly cooler compared to Saturday in
the wake of a cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Aviation...Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, and
especially this evening across the terminals. Some of the storms
late this afternoon and this evening will likely become severe,
along and east of I-25, with large hail, damaging winds the primary
threats.

Wyoming TAFS...High confidence in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
developing this afternoon and this evening, producing wind gusts in
excess of 45 knots, severe turbulence and locally heavy wind
along with large hail. Ceilings at Cheyenne will become IFR this
evening due to visibility and ceiling reductions, with slowly
improving conditions Wednesday morning.

Nebraska TAFS...Medium confidence in scattered thunderstorms
developing this evening and continuing until after 10 PM,
producing wind gusts in excess of 45 knots, severe turbulence
and locally heavy rain along with large hail. Ceilings will
improve to MVFR and VFR this afternoon, then IFR in low clouds
and fog will develop again this evening and overnight, with
improving conditions after daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN