Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

434
FXUS65 KCYS 082357
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
557 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM Saturday through 9 PM
  Sunday for all of southeast Wyoming for very low humidities
  and significant gusty winds.

- Hot temperatures continue through the start of the week before
  a pattern change begins to occur as precipitation chances
  start to rise and temperatures fall, dropping to below normal
  by the later half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 256 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

The upper level ridge starts to weaken and flatten this weekend.
This will allow a few shortwaves to push across the area for
potential showers. However,  models soundings are the high based
inverted V today and sunday. So for today no qpf was added to the
forecast since it will be so dry at the surface that if it did
"rain", the precip will likely evaporate and produce gusty showers.
There is a little more forcing with respect to the available
vorticity increasing synoptic ascent with the wave on Sunday. So a
whole hundredth of qpf was inserted in the grids for the chance of
something making it to the ground but also don`t hold your breath
for measurable precip this weekend. The pressure/height gradient
also gets slightly tightened at the 700mb with each upcoming wave.
For today, the "ridge arc" has the apex occur over the western
portion of Wyoming/upper Utah/lower Idaho area and arcs downward to
put us near a West/northwest flow over our southeast wyoming area.
Wind gusts may reach around 35 mph this afternoon and potentially
around 55 to 60mph underneath these afternoon/evening showers. The
Nebraska Panhandle will see the fairly usual 20 mph winds today but
could see those 30 mph winds tomorrow as the ridge really flattens
out over our area. Otherwise we will continue our warm temperature
trend this weekend as the 700mb temperatures stay between 15 to 18C.
So high temperatures will stay in the 90`s with some areas in our
northern counties exceeding 100 degrees today and get near 100 on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

This long-term forecast period will continue a suppressed ridge
pattern. The 500mb jet keeps stationed over the PNW and into the
Rockies and high plains areas of Montana through northern Wyoming.
Precipitation chances increase as the week goes on, with PWAT values
increasing daily. Wednesday through Friday looks to be the best
chances of precipitation. Severe weather does not appear to be a
threat at this time in southeast Wyoming due to mostly light
westerly flow in the mid and upper levels. Nebraska on the other
hand has better chances of severe weather. As the ridge pushes south
and suppresses, faster flow aloft moves in. Wind shear values look
to be around 30-40 knots which have the potential to produce
multicellular storms. Warm conditions continue through most of
this long-term period, but with those precipitation chances mid
- end week, temperatures likely will likely be lower than
earlier in the week. 700mb temperatures show ranges from the
teens to mid-teens, supporting a cooler end of the week. Fire
weather will continue to be a concern through Monday with low
RHs and some gusty winds. With precipitable water, RHs, RH
recoveries, and precipitation chances increasing throughout the
week, fire weather concerns fade away.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Isolated virga showers moving through the area will bring
approximately a 30% chance for gusty and erratic winds near
Wyoming terminals for the next 2-3 hours. A few thunderstorms
are currently between CDR and AIA. While direct impacts are not
expected at CDR, these may move through AIA over the next few
hours. Moisture return overnight will also bring a chance (20%)
for fog and/or low CIGs at AIA, but this probability was too low
to add to the TAF at this time.

For Sunday, expect westerly winds to kick up again in Wyoming,
while winds turn all around the compass in Nebraska. More
widespread high-based shower activity is expected Sunday
afternoon and evening, with gusty/erratic winds and lightning
possible. PROB30 groups have been introduced to cover this
hazard.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Air Quality Alert until noon MDT Monday for WYZ101>119.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ417>433.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...ML/AM
AVIATION...MN