Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

985
FXUS65 KCYS 272030
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
Issued by National Weather Service Riverton WY
230 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A plume of monsoon moisture will arrive today, moderating
  temperatures and improving rainfall chances through Wednesday.

- Marginal to Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Monday through
  Wednesday. Strong gusty winds will be the primary threat.

- Heavy rainfall and localized Flash Flooding possible Tuesday
  through Wednesday night.

- More heat returns for Thursday through Monday, with some near
  record high temperatures possible for some locations and
  possible Heat Advisories.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Tonight: WSR-88D radar reflectivity loop and model analysis
shows scattered to possible numerous showers, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms continuing through early evening, mainly
east of I-25. Model trends show showers and some thunderstorms
decreasing later tonight. Cloud cover will minimize cooling,
acting like a blanket effect. The Storm Prediction Center has
reduced the marginal and slight risk area for this afternoon and
this evening which seems quite plausible due to extensive cloud
cover and reduced instability. Storm movement will be enough to
minimize heavy rain threat.

Tuesday: Looks like a more favorable day for scattered to
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, especially with
respect to thunderstorm intensity due to more solar insolation,
better low level moisture supply and increased shear parameters,
as evidenced by bulk shear values and projected 850/700 theta-e
ridge axis placement. Concur with the Storm Prediction Center
day 2 outlook showing marginal risk of severe thunderstorms to
the right of a line from Laramie to Torrington to Scottsbluff.
Marginal risk of flash flooding looks more likely due to weaker
steering level winds around 700 mb, 10,000 feet MSL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Wednesday: Positioning of decent 850/700 theta-e ridge axis,
and the proximity of a more decent shortwave trough aloft near
peak heating, at least for late July, and the Precipitable Water
(PWAT) values from 1.5 to 2 inches, along with impressive shear
and instability suggests another round of scattered to numerous
afternoon and evening showers and scattered thunderstorms, with
a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms to the right of a line
from Laramie to Casper in the afternoon and evening from the
meteorologists at the SPC, Storm Prediction Center.

Thursday through Monday: Monsoonal moisture retreats out of our
County Warning Area (CWA) as a drier and hotter air mass
returns producing nearly dry conditions with only minimal
chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms over and near
our Snowy, Sierra Madre, and Laramie Ranges due to differential
orographic processes. Temperatures will soar once again,
especially for Sunday and Monday, with some locations possibly
approaching near record maximum temperatures, and perhaps the
long standing all time record high temperature of 100 degrees at
Cheyenne, that has been achieved four times, the most recent in
the 1950s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Primarily VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
The only exception will be after 03Z where MVFR conditions may
be in place for KSNY and KAIA where showers are most likely to
develop, dropping cigs to 2-3 kft. Confidence isn`t high
regarding shower and thunderstorm coverage this afternoon given
the current ongoing showers which are delaying heating and
destabilization, so further convective initiation will depend on
how quickly we can recover. Any high-based showers and
thunderstorms that are able to develop will have the potential
to produce gusty and erratic winds up to 45 knots, especially
given DCAPE greater than 1000 J/Kg and forecast soundings
showing inverted-v profiles. Outside of the deeper convection,
expect the typical diurnal onset of cumulus which will dissipate
shortly after sunset.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...WFOCYS