Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

185
FXUS65 KCYS 191131
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
531 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions and above average temperatures are
  expected to continue for much of the week ahead.

- The next chance for precipitation and temperatures closer to
  seasonal averages will be Friday into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Mid-level water vapor still shows the weak shortwave slowly moving
through and exiting the southern Colorado region. Models still show
the cloud covers slowly clearing this afternoon and evening. So most
of us should have a few clouds in the sky in the morning that
disappear by the afternoon. Meanwhile 700mb temperatures still hover
around 6 to 7C today so afternoon temperatures are expected to be
about the low to mid 60`s across the forecast area. Tuesday, we will
warm up a tiny bit with temperatures possibly in the low 70`s for
the lower elevation along and east of the I-25 corridor. The higher
elevations in Carbon and Albany county look to hangout in the 60`s
and mid to low 40`s on the mountains around 9-10,000ft. There is a
slight chance for Carbon and Albany counties to inherit light
showers from Colorado Tuesday afternoon with another weak shortwave
pushing through. But, right now its uncertain if those showers will
be strong enough to reach the ground when they get here so I kept
the probabilities below 15 percent so rain showers don`t show up in
our grids yet for that uncertainty. Finally, the winds look to be
rather light for our region but we may get enough downsloping and
warm air advection from the approaching waves to keep the overnight
temperatures in the 40`s. So this is essentially another pants and
possibly fleece forecast brought to you by the NWS!

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

The long term period starts out mild and quiet as we remain on the
western periphery of a longwave ridge, placing us in a southwesterly
flow regime. As a result, high temperatures on both Wednesday and
Thursday will peak 10-15 degrees above climatology (average high for
Cheyenne on Thursday is 57F). The southwesterly flow will allow for
a surge of mid to upper-level moisture from Baja California ahead of
an amplified closed low located off the coast of California. Latest
NAEFS guidance suggests PWAT near the climatological maximum on
Thursday (~0.75"), which is quite remarkable given that our
southwestern monsoon pattern typically ends in early to mid
September. The main question will be if we can actually translate
any of this rich moisture down to the surface as precipitation,
which has been difficult to do so far this year. Unfortunately, our
prospects aren`t exactly looking favorable for any widespread QPF as
the main synoptic-scale forcing for ascent is temporally offset from
the primary moisture plume. The main DCVA combined with weak
isentropic ascent looks to be over SE Wyoming sometime on Friday,
which also looks like the day with our best chance for showers.
Thunderstorm chances look to be low at this time as LREF guidance
and forecast soundings show MLCAPE generally below 100 J/Kg, with
slightly higher values in the Panhandle. Friday also looks to be
quite mild, with median high temperatures per LREF guidance staying
in the mid 60s to mid 70s east of the I-25 corridor, and primarily
50s west of the Laramie Range.

The unsettled pattern will continue into the weekend as the closed
low gradually translates to the east over the Desert Southwest,
placing us in a region of weak zonal flow aloft. Again, not overly
enthusiastic about chances for widespread precipitation across SE
Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle given that forcing for ascent is
rather weak. Still quite a ways out so not going to get into
specifics, but deterministic runs are showing a cold front moving
across our region some time on Saturday with a 10-15 degree drop in
high temperatures relative to Thursday and Friday, so we may
actually see an "average" day of fall weather this weekend with
chances for precipitation, though shower coverage will likely be
spotty.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Winds are going to be light for most of the day. After 20z the
Wyoming terminals look to start gusting, and after 00z the
Nebraska terminal look to start gusting when the Wyoming
terminals stop. Current ceilings range from 11,000ft to
19,000ft and later this afternoon ceilings may drop to 9,500ft.
So VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...MM