Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

079
FXUS65 KCYS 232320
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
520 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures well above average through Wednesday with another
  round of record high temperatures likely Wednesday afternoon.

- Fire Weather Watch issued for Wednesday due to increasing
  westerly winds and extremely low afternoon humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Partly to mostly cloudy skies persist over southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska this Monday afternoon as a weak wave of energy
passes eastward. Forecast soundings from short-term guidance
indicates plenty of dry air in the lower half of the atmosphere,
with near-saturation more prevalent above 500mb. Therefore, we
are not expecting much of the echos seen on radar to reach the
ground, remaining as mostly virga except possibly in the higher
elevations of the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges. A few isolated
snow showers will be possible this afternoon there, but any
accumulations will run a trace or less. Despite the cloud cover,
warm afternoon temperatures will continue as heights rise.
Afternoon highs will run at least 15 degrees above normal across
all of the high plains and western basins.

After a mild and partly cloudy overnight, skies will clear
somewhat on Tuesday as drier air moves in throughout the mid-
levels. A band of moderate flow at 700mb along with decent
subsidence in the lee of the Snowy Range may bring surface wind
gusts into the 45-55mph range. However, local guidance does not
suggest a high probability of exceeding high wind criteria at
this time in the north Snowy Range foothills. Breezy conditions
are likely throughout the remainder of the Wyoming wind prone
corridors, but should stay well below high wind criteria of 50
knots. The strong subsidence pattern as a result of the west-
northwest flow will boost afternoon temperatures once again.
Temperatures will run 20 to 30 degrees above average, with an
outside chance of a record or two in the Nebraska Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

The main story in the long-term will focus on record high
temperatures and dry weather. Wednesday will likely be the
warmest day of the year so far, with all areas along and east of
the Laramie range exceeding 80 degrees. A few locations in the
Nebraska Panhandle, including Scottsbluff and Chadron, could hit
90 degrees. Record-highs are all but a certainty for all major
stations. In addition to the record heat, extremely dry surface
humidity will be present as a result of the strong subsidence
pattern in place. Afternoon RH values on Wednesday could dip
below 10% especially in the Nebraska panhandle. Finally, gusty
winds will spread eastward from the Wyoming wind-prone corridors
throughout much of the high plains as height gradients increase.
Wind gusts over 60 mph are possible in the wind-prone corridors,
with gusts over 30 mph likely throughout much of the high
plains. Therefore we have opted to issue a Fire Weather Watch
for Wednesday afternoon and early evening to address this
particularly critical timeframe when wildfire spread could be
maximized.

Medium-range ensemble guidance still suggests a cold frontal
passage on Thursday, however the timing has been slowed in
recent guidance cycles. As of this afternoon`s guidance cycle
it now appears the front will pass during the mid to late
morning hours on Thursday, rather than in the pre-dawn hours.
Afternoon highs are not quite as `cool` as in past guidance
cycles, but still will run around 10 degrees above average on
Wednesday with a northerly component to surface flow. This front
will also bring an increase in surface RH to the high plains,
helping to reduce the fire weather threat on Thursday. Post-
frontal upslope flow may result in a few isolated snow showers
in the Laramie and Snowy Ranges on Thursday evening into Friday
morning. However, ensemble QPF totals remain at or below 0.1"
with this system and no notable accumulations are expected.
Isolated low clouds and fog may impact the higher terrain of the
Laramie Range and I-80 summit as well in the aftermath of this
front on Thursday into Friday morning.

An early look at next weekend shows moderate confidence in yet
another warming trend, although perhaps not as dramatically warm
as we have been lately. Above-normal temperatures look to
continue with partly cloudy skies and light west-southwesterly
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for the duration
of this TAF period as clouds moving across the region will
generally remain above 10K feet. Winds will ease this evening to
less than 10 knots for all sites. However, winds will ramp
right back up through Tuesday morning with gusts 25 to 40 knots.
A bit lighter at KCDR and KAIA where gusts will only top out at
20 knots or less.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for WYZ417-418-421>423-430>433.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...RZ