Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

291
FXUS65 KCYS 172329
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
429 PM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are ongoing this afternoon
  due to gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels. A Red Flag
  Warning is in effect for the Nebraska panhandle through 5 PM.

- Another round of high winds are expected in the wind prone
  areas tonight, then spreading to east central Wyoming and
  northwest Nebraska during the day on Sunday. High Wind Watches
  have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 243 PM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

Forecast remains largely on track as we see warm air advection
prior to the next clipper system dropping down across the region
into Sunday. For temperatures, we should see highs back to near
normal on Sunday, just enough warmth to bring us out of these
cooler conditions before dropping again on Monday. Meanwhile,
winds remain elevated across our wind prone locations thanks to
the enhanced pressure gradient and some breezy winds aloft,
though the strongest winds look to remain further northeast from
our usual gusty locations. But cross gradients should support
another high wind event for the wind prones, as Craig to Casper
values exceed 65 meters, and in house guidance shows a 60%
probability of High Wind Warning level gusts (58+ mph).
Meanwhile the aforementioned high level winds manifest across
our northeastern zones into tomorrow morning, with 700mb speeds
of 60-70 knots present, and favorable downward vectors bringing
these speeds to the surface. With all of this combined, High
Wind Watches were upgraded this afternoon, valid beginning this
evening for the wind prone locations, and tomorrow morning for
eastern Wyoming and the northern Nebraska Panhandle.

The clipper system producing this surge in activity should also
sweep across and bring a quick hit of moisture and chances of
some precipitation across the area as well. High resolution
guidance has been fairly indifferent to our chances, producing a
scattered weak snow shower or two across the area outside of the
high terrain. Still, with how underwhelming guidance can be in
regards to these type of events, kept a similar POP chance and
snow profile as the previous shift, albeit slightly reduced in
accumulations. Finally, conditions should decline into Monday
morning, but widespread cloud cover should help to prevent
significant heat loss and keep our lows chilly behind the quick
shot of cold air, but not as cold as they could be. And with
winds notably less than the past several days, wind chills
shouldn`t be as frigid with Cold Weather products unlikely.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

Long Term.... A possible pattern change looks to come mid to late
week as the Ridge anchored over the west coast looks to break down
allowing the Intermountain west to change from our Northwesterly
flow to a westerly flow mid week and then a southwesterly flow by
the end of the work week. Tuesday, a weak disturbance looks to pass
through the Intermountain West as we transition from Northwest to
Westerly as the ridge starts to break down. Some arctic air does
filter down into our region dropping 700mb temperatures from -2C to -
8C over the Intermountain West and High Plains. This arctic airmass
will bring more winter like temperatures to the region instead of
our tropical-ish 60`s we had in December and beginning of January.
There could be some weak snow showers as the wave pushes through but
its pretty much looking like it will be isolated to our mountain
peaks for now. Meanwhile the upper low looks to keep spinning over
the Great Lakes continuing our high winds intermittently throughout
the week. Towards the end of the week a system looks to push through
the Intermountain West giving us potential widespread snow chances
across the forecast area. However, looking at cluster analysis the
ensembles disagree to what magnitude the ridge breaks down which
could ultimately alter the course of the system and could
potentially increase or decrease our snow totals. So the potential
system at the end of the week is something to keep an eye on for
potential snow accumulations and storm track.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 429 PM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

Cloud decks came in between 6000-8000ft for southeast Wyoming,
and 8,000-9,000ft for the Panhandle terminals. A low level jet
looks to setup overnight around 2,000ft after 00z and continue
through 12z tomorrow. Low level jet Peak winds look to be
around 40 to 50 kts. Peak surface winds look to be around 16z
for KCYS and the Nebraska Panhandle terminals. Some airports may
see up to 45 knots for the gusts during that time. Clouds will
slowly be moving through in the evening tomorrow. VFR conditions
will prevail during the TAF period.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for WYZ102.
     High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Sunday for WYZ106.
     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Sunday for WYZ110-116.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ434>437.
     High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for NEZ002-003-
     095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MM