Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

750
FXUS65 KCYS 231107
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
507 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A High Wind Warning has been issued for much of Carbon County
  and portions of Albany County from 5AM to 3PM today.

- Above average temperatures will continue today, but a weekend
  system will drop temperatures near to below average.

- Precipitation is possible this afternoon through Sunday, with
  the potential for frozen precipitation outside of the
  mountains Sunday morning.

- Near normal temperatures and a bit warmer by Tuesday into
  Wednesday, but next Pacific system will be approaching from
  the Pacific Northwest by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The upper-level trough that has been moving towards the region over
the past few days will start to significantly impact western
portions of the CWA starting this morning. The upper-level trough is
currently located over Nevada and Oregon, with a modest jet
developing as the ridge starts to move off towards the Mississippi
River Valley. The upper-level system will strengthen this afternoon
and evening as split flow develops over the Intermountain West. A
much stronger 250mb jet is anticipated to develop overhead this
afternoon and evening. A few lobes of 500mb vorticity eject out
ahead of the incoming trough this afternoon, adding to the synoptic
forcing across the region. Much of the area will be under the right
entrance region of the upper-level jet into the overnight hours,
favoring increased forcing. The 700mb trough currently looks to
remain on track, with a northeasterly jump from northern Nevada into
southern Montana this morning. The trough will deepen slightly this
morning, resulting in strong height gradients across much of the
area and a 50kt, southwesterly jet across western portions of the
CWA. GFS Omega fields suggest modest downward motion across western
Carbon County with the increasing 700mb jet overhead, favoring
downward acceleration. The surface pressure gradient looks to
increase this morning and afternoon for this same area as the surface
low over eastern Montana deepens throughout the day. While the
strong 700mb jet will quickly weaken into the afternoon hours as the
700mb trough continues to move quickly to the northeast, this will
not occur before very strong winds develop across western Carbon
County. In-house Random Forest guidance suggests around a 20% chance
for high winds at Rawlins so, with recent model runs starting to
increase the 700mb jet this morning, a High Wind Warning has been
issued for much of Carbon County and portions of Albany County,
including the Arlington/Elk Mountain wind prone zone. Sustained
winds between 30 and 35mph are expected for much of the mid-morning
hours with gusts likely between 55 and 60mph, though a rouge gust up
to 65mph cannot be completely ruled out at some of the wind prone
locations.

As far as precipitation is concerned for Friday into Saturday
morning, southwesterly surface flow across Carbon County will not
only produce strong winds, but will also favor upslope development
across the Sierra Madre Range, with precipitation starting to push
northeastward Friday evening into the overnight hours. 700mb
temperatures will start to decrease this afternoon into the 2 to 4C
range across Carbon County, while remaining quite warm east of this,
in the 6 to 8C range. As a result, precipitation across the Sierra
Madre Range looks to start as mostly rain, with warmer 700mb
temperatures not supporting snow development. However, into the
overnight hours and early Saturday morning, 700mb temperatures drop
to at or below 0C across the mountains. This would favor rain
switching to snow Saturday morning, though significant accumulation
is not anticipated. Any precipitation outside of the mountains
should remain primarily rain, as recent model runs suggest a
slightly warmer system than originally thought.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

No major changes, please see previous discussion...

Into the long term our temperatures will drop several degrees below
average under a colder airmass with some increasing chances for
precipitation, primarily for our eastern zones this time, with
temperatures then warming to near average by the middle of the work
week under brief clearing. The upper level pattern will see the
northern trough quickly accelerating eastwards, leaving us under
southwesterly flow aloft from a brief finger of weak transient
ridging that will quickly be erased by low pressure slowly
progressing across the Four Corners region. This will then become
our main weather feature through Monday before finally sliding
eastwards into the Central Plains, with another transient ridge
building on Tuesday that will briefly hold the region before another
Pacific low moves into the Pacific Northwest and then starts to
knock on our doorstep by Wednesday into Thursday. Under this
pattern, we should see surface flow begin to weaken by later
Saturday and continue into the early part of next week as the
strongest part of the jet remains just south and west of the
forecast area. With this flow, the best moisture will remain just
outside of our forecast area to the east as well. That being said,
PWAT values will still be on the higher side even for our area by
around 0.15-0.25 inch, and scattered shower activity is expected
from Saturday afternoon and continuing through Monday evening before
exiting the region. The highest QPF amounts should align with the
best moisture for the southeastern portions of the Nebraska
Panhandle, but some meager moisture should occur across most of the
forecast area east of the Laramie Range. Morning lows both Sunday
and Monday could also allow for this to mix with snow, but don`t
expect noteworthy winter accumulations at this time. As conditions
finally clear later Monday into Tuesday and the transient ridge
moves in, 700mb temperatures will warm back into the 5-8 C range,
allowing surface temperatures to rise back to near average in the 50-
60 degree range. Tightening pressure gradients from the approaching
Pacific system will start to increase westerly to southwesterly
winds again for our western zones on Tuesday and Wednesday, but
otherwise expect conditions to be a bit more uneventful as
precipitation chances dwindle outside of the high terrain for the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

High-level clouds are moving across the region this morning with
winds starting to increase out west. KRWL will see some lower
clouds around 6000ft for the next few hours before clearing out.
Winds will be quite gusty at KRWL this morning and afternoon,
with gusts 45 to 50kts possible. The other terminals will all
see gusty winds this morning and afternoon. A cold front will
move through very late in the TAF period, turning winds
northerly and lowering the cloud deck.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ104-105-
     109>111.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM/CG
AVIATION...AM