Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

976
FXUS65 KCYS 072325
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms Thursday
  afternoon and evening will have the potential to produce small
  hail and gusty and erratic winds. Another chance of
  thunderstorms possible Saturday.

- Mostly dry and mild to warm weather will prevail for Sunday through
  Thursday, with breezy to windy conditions in the afternoons
  and evenings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to bloom up on radar early
this afternoon. This trend will continue, with storms becoming more
numerous as the day progresses. MUCAPE and surface CAPE this
afternoon are around 400 J/kg, so severe weather is unlikely but
small hail and gusty winds will still be possible in storms. PWAT
values are also high enough to potentially see some decent QPF
amounts out of some storms. Showers and storms will continue into
the overnight hours, becoming less numerous. The upper-level
disturbance responsible for the storms will be slow to move out of
the region as the large low over the Hudson Bay in Canada spins in
place. This could cause a few showers to linger into Friday morning.

Overall, warmer and drier weather is expected for the day Friday as
brief upper-level ridging begins to move eastward towards the
Rockies. Temperatures will only be a few degrees warmer compared to
today, mainly due to less cloud cover from subsidence under the
ridge. Subsidence will also keep precipitation chances away from
most of the CWA, however cannot rule out a Dawes County clipper
during the afternoon as modeled by the HRRR.

A cool front will drop down from the north during the day on
Saturday, dropping temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees from Friday.
The front will also bring another round of moisture to the area
during the afternoon and evening hours. Model soundings already show
a decent environment for marginally severe storms south of the North
Platte River Valley and east of the Laramie Range. Up to 800 J/kg of
MUCAPE and DCAPE could lead to hail and gusty winds in storms.
Cannot rule out an isolated severe storm during this time.
Decent PWAT values are also expected, meaning the area could
see another round of measurable precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Saturday night/Sunday...A progressive shortwave trough aloft will
move southeast over the forecast area Saturday evening, producing
scattered evening showers and isolated thunderstorms, most numerous
from Douglas to Cheyenne, to Scottsbluff and Sidney. Ridging aloft
and a drier airmass will keep it dry for Sunday. Confidence is high
in shower and thunderstorm coverage Saturday evening, with a few
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms due to CAPE from 500 to 1000
joules per kilogram and bulk shear values 40 to 45 knots. A warming
trend continues for Sunday with 700 mb temperatures near 8 Celsius.

Monday...The next shortwave trough aloft moves across eastern
Montana and the Dakotas, sending its associated cold front into
northeast Wyoming and perhaps our far northern counties from Douglas
to Chadron in the afternoon. Still though, even with cold frontal
forcing, dry conditions should prevail due to dry low and mid
levels. Moderate confidence in breezy to windy conditions as the low
and mid level gradients strengthen for Monday afternoon. Prefrontal
lifting and 700 mb temperatures near 12 Celsius will produce summer
like maximums in the upper 70s to near 90 degrees.

Tuesday...Brisk northwest flow continues, and dry conditions remain
with scarce low and mid level moisture availability. Cooler
temperatures in the post cold frontal sector as upslope north and
northeast winds develop.

Wednesday...Another warming trend ensues as 700 mb temperatures
reach 14 Celsius, yielding highs in the upper 70s to near 90
degrees. The dry northwest flow aloft prevails, and with warm mid
level temperatures producing enough convective inhibition, no
showers or thunderstorms are anticipated.

Thursday...The ridge aloft moves further east over western Wyoming.
Some pseudo like monsoonal moisture will affect western Wyoming and
western Colorado, though it looks likely the scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be mainly west of our forecast area.
Slightly cooler temperatures due to a small drop in 700 mb
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

An upper level shortwave will slide southeast across all
terminals for most of this TAF period. As such, this is kicking
off scattered showers along with a few thunderstorms as
indicated by the current radar. If a thunderstorm moves across a
terminal, expect gusty and erratic winds up to 35 knots. This
activity may linger past midnight tonight. CIGs should range
between 5K and 10K feet as the aforementioned shortwave, with
showers and thunderstorms, moves through the region. As we
progress into early Friday morning, CIGs lift while skies clear,
resulting in VFR conditions for the remainder of this TAF
period.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RZ