Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

439
FXUS65 KCYS 022110
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
310 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the end
  of the work week.

- Afternoon and evening storms will be possible most days
  through the end of the week. A few strong to severe storms
  will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY/...
Issued at 310 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Multiple rounds of marginally strong to severe weather are
expected over the short term as the region sits under a general
ridging pattern with daily shortwaves bringing the focus needed
for shower and storm development. For this evening, a few weak
echoes are already noted on radar across our northern zones in
Wyoming, though these are not currently producing much
noteworthy activity. Mesoanalysis shows plentiful instability,
as surface based CAPE values sit in the 1000-3000 J/kg range,
highest in the southeastern Nebraska Panhandle. There is some
modest bulk shear present, around 20-30 knots, so if we can get
some activity to go up this afternoon and evening, the
instability is there to fuel stronger storms, but not sure if
activity can remain sustained. If it can, the above alongside
favorable DCAPE would fuel storms with hail and strong winds
would be the primary impacts.

Moving into Friday instability may shift a bit further east and
northward, but the Nebraska Panhandle should still see around
1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE present, with bulk shear generally
lacking where the best instability is present. High resolution
guidance is generally much more favorable with development off
of the high terrain or just east though, perhaps where a weak
trough feature may be present, with activity strengthening in
our far eastern counties in the Panhandle before becoming much
more notable as they move further east across Nebraska. Hail and
damaging winds once again would be the primary hazards. And
then on Independence Day, a potent swath of instability is
expected to develop out of Colorado and into Laramie County and
the Nebraska Panhandle during the afternoon with 2000-3000 J/kg
of CAPE present. With a bit more shear present and pockets of
stronger SRH compared to previous days, we may have a better
shot of atmospheric fireworks on the 4th of July of all days.
Once again looking at a hail risk alongside some stronger wind
gusts accompanying these storms, with development a little
earlier into the early to mid afternoon, hopefully getting out
of the region early enough that it doesn`t ruin evening
festivities.

Otherwise, look for similar temperatures to today as highs on
Friday and the 4th of July range in the 80`s to 90`s with dry
conditions east of the Nebraska Panhandle as daytime minimum RH
values hit the teens. Thankfully for us winds shouldn`t be quite
strong enough to warrant critical fire weather conditions, which
is very welcome news considering just how dry it has been and
the expectation that a few new fires are inevitable from
fireworks this weekend. Everyone stay safe this holiday!

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Sunday...With warm temperatures aloft, the CIN, convective
inhibition, will increase markedly with 700 mb temperatures near 17
Celsius, limiting convective potential, and allowing for at best,
isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms along and east of I-25.
Another warming trend begins based on 700 mb temperature trends.

Monday...Similar synoptic pattern to Sunday, with enough mid level
moisture to produce isolated to widely scattered afternoon and
evening thunderstorms, primarily east of I-25 where convergence at
low levels will be maximized.

Tuesday...Beneficial rain appears increasingly likely as low and mid
level moisture increases markedly, while a shortwave trough aloft,
also known as an atmospheric perturbation, moves overhead near peak
heating, sparking scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially
east of a Douglas to Laramie line, with isolated convection further
west in the drier airmass.

Wednesday...Shortwave ridging builds aloft and with decreasing
atmospheric moisture in the low and mid levels, expect a
corresponding decrease in areal coverage of showers and
thunderstorms.

Thursday...Expect a slight increase in afternoon and evening shower
and thunderstorm coverage, as a shortwave trough aloft passes
overhead near peak heating, though coverage will only be isolated to
widely scattered due to warm temperatures aloft producing
some convective inhibition, also known as CIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The weather pattern is quite similar to the past few days, with
southwest flow aloft, and the models forecasting a minor
perturbation, also known as a shortwave trough aloft, moving
northeast across the terminals this evening, and sparking
isolated thunderstorms for the Nebraska Panhandle TAFS this
evening from 00Z to 03Z, according to the latest run of the
HRRR, which performed well yesterday for the overnight time
frame.

Nebraska TAFS...Confidence is high on VFR through the period.
Based on the HRRR, and the 12Z NAM run, expecting isolated
showers and thunderstorms to form late this afternoon through
early evening along a north to south oriented theta-ridge axis
at 850/700 mb. Went with VCTS for all terminals from 00Z to 03Z.
Mix down winds and decent surface gradients will produce gusty
winds to 30 knots through late afternoon, and then gusts near 20
knots again after 15Z Friday.

Wyoming TAFS...High confidence in VFR through the period.
Scattered mid level clouds from 10000 to 12000 feet AGL will
occur through the early evening hours, with clear skies
thereafter. Decent surface gradients and mix down winds will
produce gusty winds to 30 knots through early evening, and then
to 25 knots again after 15Z Friday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN