Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

939
FXUS65 KCYS 021112
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
512 AM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, wetter weather will continue today and Friday as
  widespread precipitation chances continue this afternoon.

- A strong cold front moves through late tonight into the early
  morning hours Friday, resulting in high winds across portions
  of southeast Wyoming.

- Warmer, drier weather returns this weekend, with fire concerns
  increasing for the start of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 136 AM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Isolated showers are ongoing across portions of the CWA, mostly
areas west of the Laramie Range and across the western Nebraska
Panhandle. Shower activity is expected to continue overnight and
tomorrow as the next system starts to push into the Intermountain
West. The upper-level shortwave that resulted in the precipitation
on Wednesday will continue to propagate off to the northeast into
the upper Midwest and portions of the Great Lakes region. A brief
lull in precipitation is expected this afternoon as a weak, short-
lived, upper-level ridge develops between the departing system to
the east and the incoming system to the west. Most locations will
see this pause in precipitation between now and about 3PM this
afternoon. For locations west of the Laramie Range, there will be
little to no pause in precipitation chances as the synoptic forcing
from the incoming system is expected to arrive as early as 6AM this
morning. Therefore, ongoing precipitation chances are expected for
all locations west of the Laramie Range, while locations east will
see a brief pause this morning into the early afternoon hours. With
the departing system to the east, the 700mb low will also move off
to the northeast, but not before strengthening and increasing height
gradients across the CWA this morning into the afternoon hours. A
700mb jet approaching 50kts will be overhead by 9AM this morning,
with GFS downward omega values suggesting a strong, mountain wave
signature across much of the region. As a result, winds will start
increasing this morning and into the afternoon hours, with strong
southwesterly flow expected across Carbon County and slightly
weaker, westerly flow for areas east of the Laramie Range. Craig to
Casper gradients will increase as surface pressure gradients begin
to increase in between the two system, resulting in increasing
confidence for very strong winds near Arlington and Elk Mountain.
The High Wind Watch for Arlington and Elk Mountain has been upgraded
to a High Wind Warning from 6AM this morning through 6PM Friday. The
High Wind Watch remains in place for the Rawlins area as confidence
is lower for this zone to hit high wind criteria, though it cannot
be completely ruled out. This Watch runs from 6AM this morning
through 6PM this evening. The High Wind Watch for the remaining
locations has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning, ending late
Friday.

With this next incoming system, the higher terrain of southeast
Wyoming is progged to do quite well, as far as snowfall is
concerned. As the incoming system begins to push into western
portions of the CWA later this morning, stout southwesterly flow
will develop along the Sierra Madre Range, leading to continued
upslope flow throughout much of the morning until winds shift
westerly to northwesterly behind the cold front around 6PM this
evening. The surface low responsible for this next round of
precipitation is progged to develop between 3PM and 6PM this evening
off the Rocky Mountains in northeastern Colorado. This low will
slowly propagate off to the northeast, leaving much of the CWA in a
favorable flow regime for wide spread showers and likely snow
showers behind the cold front as 700mb tank back into the -12 to -9C
range. Snowfall in the mountains should accumulate throughout much
of the event, leading to around 15 to 20 inches of snow for the
mountains, with the highest amounts near the peaks. Therefore, a
Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the Sierra Madre and Snowy
ranges from 11AM this morning through 6PM Friday. Snow totals
outside of the mountains will be much lower, likely between a Trace
and 2 inches, with the highest amounts occurring out west where
precipitation chances do not pause for overly long. However, some
decent precipitation totals are expected, especially for any
locations that experience one of the heavier rain showers. All rain
is expected to change over to snow between 6PM this evening through
6 AM Friday, with the Panhandle being the last area to see snow.

On Friday, the upper-level system will continue to slowly propagate
eastwards as an upper-level ridge develops over the West Coast. The
700mb low bringing the precipitation to the region will very slowly
propagate northeastwards, but will continue to strengthen as it does
so. As a result, high winds are expected to continue Friday morning
behind the cold front, rather than decreasing after the front as is
usually seen across the region. High winds will continue through
Friday evening, as the 700mb low finally leaves the region Saturday
morning. With the slower propagation of the surface low and 700mb
low, precipitation chances do not start to come to an end until
overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Temperatures on Friday
will struggle to get back into the 40s for areas east of the Laramie
Range. When combined with the high winds expected to continue across
the region, it will feel a lot colder the the upper-30s to low-40s
for most areas. Temperatures will begin to rebound on Saturday as
the upper-level ridge developing over the West Coast moves towards
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 136 AM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

No major changes with this update. Please see previous discussion...

The weekend into early next week will feature a return to drier
weather as northwest flow transitions to weak ridging across the
western CONUS. Temperatures will run near to slightly above normal
throughout the period, however we will not see a return to record
high temperatures, at least for the next week or so. Northwest flow
behind our departing system on Saturday will result in a seasonably
chilly, but sunny day across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska.
As ridging builds in from the southwest and mid-level temperatures
warm, expect a moderating trend to temperatures for Sunday with high
confidence in dry weather expected once again.

A bit more uncertainty enters the forecast from Monday through
Wednesday as a plume of subtropical moisture moves in through the
southwestern CONUS. This feature, underneath the building ridge,
gives almost a summery-flavor to the weather pattern with increasing
chances of afternoon convective showers and possibly thunder over
the higher terrain. At the very least, an increase in mid-level
moisture will make for cloudier afternoons from Monday through
midweek. Despite the cloud cover, warming mid-level temperatures
will compensate resulting in highs still running above average
through the period. Late in the long-term period on Wednesday into
Thursday, attention shifts to the chance of a more robust storm
system to move through the Central Rockies. A large amount of spread
exists in ensemble guidance for this period, with some members
taking a stronger low-pressure system through the region with rain
and mountain snow, and others limiting this event to a brief period
of moisture and a cold front. Still, the next major opportunity for
some form of accumulating precipitation of note looks to arrive on
Wednesday evening through Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Patchy fog and low ceilings are ongoing across the western
Nebraska Panhandle this morning. While patchy fog should come to
an end in the next 1 to 4 hours, low ceilings will hang around
throughout the day. A brief period of clearing for the Wyoming
terminals is anticipated this morning through the afternoon,
while the Nebraska terminals will see more cloud cover
throughout the day. A cold front will pass through later
tonight, leading to northerly wind shifts and isolated to
scattered rain and snow showers. KRWL will see on and off rain
and snow showers for much of the day.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Friday
     for WYZ106.
     High Wind Watch through this afternoon for WYZ109.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for WYZ110.
     Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT Friday for
     WYZ112-114.
     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Friday for WYZ116-117.
     High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Friday
     for WYZ118.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...MAC/AM
AVIATION...AM