Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

729
FXUS65 KCYS 222052
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
252 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this
  weekend, with the possibility of widespread rain on Saturday.
  A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible
  Saturday afternoon. Flash flooding is also possible.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through
  the end of the week with slightly above average temperature
  expected until Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Another active day is expected this afternoon and evening as a
shortwave passes through the upper-level ridge, bringing with it a
push of monsoon moisture. Much like yesterday, the early development
already being seen is weak and pulsey due to a decent amount of
MLCIN still present. As the afternoon progresses, CIN will erode and
storms will take advantage of the ample amounts of SBCAPE that the
RAP is predicting later this afternoon. The shortwave will provide
the lift for storms to develop while decent shear will allow for a
few organized cells to sustain themselves. For the most part,
hodographs are fairly linear, so multicell clusters and perhaps a
small line or two are the favored storm modes. This is supported by
Hi-Res guidance showing a similar solution. Although strong winds
will be the primary concern in storms, embedded large hail could
also be possible. With the monsoon push, PWATs are in the 90th
percentile with model soundings showing rather slow cloud layer
winds. As a result, heavy rains are expected with flash flooding a
possibility. Along with flash flooding, a few severe thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out. Although storms are already beginning to fire,
the strongest storms are most likely 4 PM and 9 PM this evening.
After this timeframe, linger scattered showers are expected
throughout southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska for the better
part of the overnight. With the remnant moisture from storms and
weak southerly flow overnight, patchy fog and low stratus could once
again be possible for areas east of the Laramie Range, including the
Nebraska panhandle.

Sunday does not look as active as Saturday, although precipitation
chances are still forecast. The ridge will flatten slightly as a
trough skirts the Canadian border. This will cause winds to turn
more westerly, which will help dry the low-levels a bit compared to
Saturday. The westerly winds also cut down on instability, with
model soundings only showing about 1000 J/kg of CAPE. As a result,
Hi-Res guidance shows less coverage of storms across the forecast
area. Any storms that develop on Sunday are not likely to be severe.
With the westerly winds, gusty conditions are expected out west. A
decent MSLP gradient will set up with 40 kt winds aloft. This could
lead to 40+ MPH wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours.
Winds as well as any showers will dissipate overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Moving into the work week we`ll start off on the hot side with a
high pressure ridge firmly in control of the Western US. While
temperatures will cool just a couple of degrees compared to
Sunday, highs still sit warmer than average by around 5-8
degrees. A cold front will be approaching the region with
another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on tap
including locally stronger to weakly severe activity possible.
By Tuesday though a backdoor cold front will offer very meager
respite as highs drop by around 2-6 degrees, closer to near
average but still above by up to a few degrees. Similarly,
moisture will continue to remain just above average at around
120-140% of average, equating to PWAT values of 0.75-1.25
inches. While not impressive by any stretch of the imagination,
this should continue to fuel daytime thunderstorms with a
marginal risk of severe activity. Wednesday through the end of
the week look to be largely similar with a steady warming trend,
bringing us back to temperatures similar to Monday alongside
continued daily afternoon thunderstorm risk under westerly to
northwesterly flow. Drier air will slowly infiltrate through the
week though, and this will begin to steadily increase our fire
weather risk with elevated conditions at least by Friday. Anyone
expecting an early end to summer will be sorely disappointed in
the last full week of August.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A mix of flight categories expected over the next 24 hours.
Some low stratus are beginning to clear away from BFF, but may
linger for another hour or two. Thereafter, look for mid level
clouds to move in through the day, with thunderstorms possible
this evening across all sites. Any storms could lower CIGs to
MVFR status, with MVFR to possibly brief IFR VIS. Thereafter,
clouds will lift and clear through the night into tomorrow
morning. Winds breezy at 15-25 knots, higher with any nearby
storms causing gusty and erratic conditions, with similar winds
overnight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG