Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

984
FXUS65 KCYS 231837
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1237 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through Thursday evening. Localized flash flooding remains
  possible.

- Warmer air will return to the area Friday into early next
  week. Near record high temperatures are possible Saturday
  through Monday.

- Dry weather is expected Friday with a few isolated storms
  Saturday and Sunday. Monsoon moisture will return Monday and
  increase thunderstorm chances thereafter.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Abundant moisture continues to stream through the area this morning
thanks to an upper level shortwave interacting with monsoon
moisture. Heavy rainfall has been fairly isolated so far, but
showers with isolated embedded thunder are producing locally
moderate heavy rainfall early this morning, which will continue for
several more hours. We should see coverage decrease a little bit
around sunrise, but some shower activity is expected to continue
across the area for most of the next 24 hours. With the shortwave
trough axis moving through today, we will enjoy the coolest day of
the week today with highs generally in the mid 70s to mid 80s under
partly sunny skies. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will kick
up quickly after noon once again today with scattered to numerous
storms expected through the evening hours. We are not expecting
widespread rainfall across the entire area, but locally heavy
thunderstorm rainfall remains possible. Precipitable water will
remain fairly steady through the day today, around 1" in the
mountains of southern Wyoming, increasing to near 1.75" in
portions of the Nebraska panhandle. This remains easily over the
99th percentile of climatology for most of the area, and
potentially pushing climatological maximums. As is typical in
these monsoon patterns, instability looks somewhat limited due
to unimpressive lapse rates. The organized severe weather threat
looks limited today, but gusty outflow winds exceeding 60 mph
can hardly ever be ruled out when thunderstorms are in the
forecast in our area. The primary concern remains frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall / flash flooding. While
confidence in widespread flash flooding is pretty low at this
time, localized flash flooding certainly remains possible. It is
difficult to pinpoint an area of maximum concern today, and it
will depend on where thunderstorms manage to develop. Therefore,
the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until midnight tonight,
but it is worth emphasizing again that this is for localized
heavy thunderstorm rainfall, not widespread steady excessive
rainfall. Drier air above 500-mb will move in from the west this
evening as the monsoon surge comes to its conclusion. Expect
shower and thunderstorm activity to wind down quickly after
midnight.

The ridge aloft will amplify across the Rockies on Friday into the
weekend, leading to another round of heat. Temperatures will climb
considerably on Friday, reaching the mid to upper 80s around Laramie
and Rawlins, and upper 80s to 90s east of I-25. Temperatures aloft
will surge much faster than in the boundary layer. 500-mb
temperatures are expected to be near or even exceeding
climatological maximums over much of the area Friday afternoon
despite 700-mb temperatures "only" around the 90th percentile. This
will result in a robust capping inversion around 550-mb per forecast
soundings, which will put a strong cap on thunderstorm activity.
Overall, expect little to no afternoon showers and thunderstorms
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Another round of heat will be the main story this weekend into early
next week. 700-mb temperatures are expected to climb to around +17C
to +20C across the area by Saturday afternoon and remain there
through Monday. This values are around the climatological 99th
percentile (and this is the hottest time of the year too). Laramie
and Rawlins can expected highs near 90 degrees each of these days
Saturday through Monday, while those to the east of I-25 will be in
the mid 90s to mid 100s. Sunday looks like the hottest day of the
period, with daily record highs explicitly forecast at Alliance,
Chadron, and Sidney. Tied records are in the forecast for Cheyenne
and Laramie. While widespread thunderstorm activity is not expected
over the weekend, we will lose the upper level inversion as the
boundary layer warms and 500-mb temperatures drop ever so slightly.
We should reach convective temperatures and produce a few
isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and
Sunday afternoons. Gusty winds will be the primary concern with
deep inverted-v boundary layers.

Another surge in monsoon moisture is expected to begin Monday as the
powerful upper level ridge shifts slightly to the east. NAEFS mean
precipitable water values exceed the climatological 90th percentile
again by Monday and remain there through at least Wednesday.
Therefore, expect scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms to increase in coverage these days. Monday will bring
near record heat once again, but expect temperatures to moderate a
little closer to seasonal averages after that as moisture
improves.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

A shortwave trough aloft, also known as a weather disturbance
aloft, moves to eastern Wyoming by early evening, then to
western Nebraska by midnight, and interacts with a moist low and
mid level atmosphere to produce scattered to numerous showers,
and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, most
concentrated along and east of Interstate 25. A drier and warmer
airmass will then spread across the region late tonight and on
Friday.

Wyoming TAFS...HRRR and the NAM show the first round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing and propagating
southeastward across the aviation area through 22Z, and
confidence is high enough based on timing to include PROB30s at
Cheyenne and Rawlins due to extended time frame, and a TEMPO at
Laramie. Some of the strongest storms will produce wind gusts
near 45 knots, along with MVFR ceilings and visibilities along
with erratic winds. A secondary round of widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms will likely develop across Albany and
Laramie Counties, according to the HRRR, from 00Z to 03Z. Then
skies will clear out with VFR prevailing. As is common, expect
gusty diurnal winds until sunset.

Nebraska TAFS...HRRR and the NAM show an initial round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms affecting the central and
southern Panhandle from 20Z to 01Z, and thus confidence is high
enough to include PROB30s at both Scottsbluff and Sidney, with
the strongest storms producing erratic wind gusts to 45 knots as
well as brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Although the HRRR
shows considerably less coverage of convection for the KCDR and
KAIA sites, believe it would be prudent to go with PROB30s from
21Z to 02Z in case the HRRR is too far south with its
projections. Skies will clear out later tonight with VFR
prevailing. Expect the typical gusty diurnal winds until sunset.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Flood Watch through this evening for WYZ101>119.
NE...Flood Watch through this evening for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-
     055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...RUBIN