Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

295
FXUS65 KCYS 251150
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
550 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms expected
  Thursday. Strong winds and heavy rainfall are the primary
  concerns, though large hail is still possible.

- A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the South Fork burn
  scar area due to the potential for multiple rounds of
  thunderstorms with heavy rainfall in the vicinity.

- Warming temperatures, falling humidity, and increasing winds
  will increase fire weather concerns this weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Current KCYS radar loop across the region shows scattered to
numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms across most of
southeast Wyoming and the central and northern Nebraska
Panhandle at this hour. Nocturnal convection is being driven
primarily by a broad upper level trough moving eastward across
Wyoming and Colorado this morning, in addition to some elevated
CAPE in the midlevels. If anything, expect shower activity to
increase in coverage as the base of this trough moving over the
I-25 corridor between early this morning and noon today. In
between shower activity, kept patchy fog in the forecast along
and east of I-25 with several locations already showing 1/2 to 2
miles visibility. With the slower movement of the trough and
low clouds and/or fog remaining over the area through most of
the morning, this will play a large part in convection potential
this afternoon.

Cooler temperatures expected today due to cloud cover and the
slower movement of the upper level trough axis. This will also
limit instability in the boundary layer and in the midlevels.
The Slight Risk has been lowered to a Marginal Risk for strong
to severe thunderstorms today through this evening. Primary
threat still appears to be strong gusty winds (can`t totally rule
out some marginally severe hail as well), but convective
parameters don`t look favorable for widespread strong winds with
MLCAPE struggling to climb above 800 j/kg for much of the day
due to persistent cloud cover. All models show the convection
growing upscale with squall lines and possibly bow echoes
forming this afternoon and rapidly moving southeast across the
plains into this evening. Should be a late show for this
activity with high resolution guidance showing a line of strong
storms moving across far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska
between 5 to 9 PM. Looks like mainly heavy rain, strong (brief)
gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be the primary threats
into this evening. Flash flooding looks less likely today
considering yesterday`s conditions were far more favorable but
storms failed to produce. High temperatures today will struggle
to reach 70 degrees for most of the area.

All models show a warming and drying trend beginning on Friday
as the upper level flow backs into the southwest ahead of an
elongated upper level trough across the Pacific coast. 700mb
temperatures will respond and climb above 13c. Southerly winds
will keep temperatures in the low to mid 80s, which is still
slightly above average for this time of the year. Models show an
embedded shortwave moving east across the area Friday afternoon,
which will likely trigger another round of thunderstorms.
However, with the drier airmass beginning to push into the
region, expect coverage to be lower compared to the last several
days. The most favorable location for strong to severe
thunderstorms will likely be east of I-25 into western Nebraska,
with thunderstorms pushing out of the area by the early evening
hours (6 to 8 pm).

Dry weather returns on Saturday as southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska will have a break from the recent thunderstorm
activity. All models indicate 700 mb temperatures climbing
between 14c to 18c, which translates to surface high
temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s, warmest for elevations
below 4500 feet. Other than increasing fire weather concerns,
quieter weather is expected this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Sunday through Wednesday...A broad trough aloft develops across the
northern and central Rockies, with dry southwest flow aloft, leading
to only isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms at most in the
afternoons and evenings. A progressive shortwave trough aloft is
progged to move to the western Dakotas on Monday, with its
associated cold front bringing a cooler airmass behind the likely
moisture starved cold front. The dry southwest flow aloft continues
for Tuesday and Wednesday with a slow warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Low confidence Aviation forecast for most of the area due to
uncertain coverage of heavy showers and off/on fog this morning.
Expect numerous rain showers to continue as an upper level trough
axis moves eastward into western Nebraska this morning. With some
clearing skies this afternoon, another line of strong thunderstorms
is expected to push across all terminals late in the afternoon and
evening hours.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: Complicated TAFs across the area with
several hazards and rapidly changing conditions expected. Upper
level trough will move across the area this morning, resulting in an
area of moderate to heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms 12z to
19z. High resolution model guidance remains aggressive with IFR to
LIFR conditions, but conditions have not verified well so far.
Tweaked TAF for the western Nebraska panhandle and trended towards
low-end MVFR to high-end IFR (700 ft to 1500 ft CIGS and occasional
drops in VIS). KSNY will be the only exception to this since they
have stayed close to 500 feet CIGS this morning. VFR to MVFR VIS
possible at times for the southeast Wyoming terminals with any
heavier showers.

For this afternoon, expected a break in the precipitation. A line of
strong thunderstorms is then expected to from and quickly move
southeast...impacting KRWL, KLAR, and KCYS between 22z today and 02z
Friday with IFR conditions and strong gusty winds.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NEZ002-095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...TJT