Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

594
FXUS65 KCYS 080827
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
227 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue
  through Friday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible Friday
  afternoon into the early evening.

- A pattern change Sunday into Monday will drop temperatures
  back to near seasonal normals, and bring renewed chances for
  rainfall primarily in Carbon and Converse counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Few changes made to the previous forecast package as the
stubborn upper level ridge axis will remain over the area at
least through Friday. By late Friday, all models show the ridge
beginning to break down from west to east as a series of potent
upper level troughs move into the Pacific NW late Friday through
the weekend.

Remaining pretty quiet today with warmer than average
temperatures continuing this afternoon. A few more record high
temperatures are possible, with Laramie and Rawlins have the
best chance to see daily records broken Thursday afternoon with
highs in the mid to upper 70s. Further east, still remaining
warmer than average but highs should be several degrees lower
than the daily maxes. Can`t rule out low 80s for Cheyenne, which
will be within a degree or two of the record high of 83 set in
2020. Kept POP below 5 percent since any weak rain shower or
thunder shower(s) have stayed south of the Colorado/Wyoming
border with weak upslope flow and instability near the Rocky
Mountains. Do not expect that to change today.

For Friday, models are now showing a subtle disturbance aloft
ejecting northeast into southern Wyoming in the afternoon. This
disturbance is pretty weak and barely noticeable with a series
of weak vort maxes lift northeast during the evening hours on
Friday. High res guidance is starting to pick up on this, but
still show only isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
across Carbon and Albany counties...possibly extending eastward
into the I-25 corridor. Increased POP Friday evening, but kept
most places below 15% since we want to see a little more model
consistency. Also, low level moisture will struggle to recover
Friday which may greatly limit convection outside of the
mountains.

Friday will likely be the warmest day we`ll see in a while as
the Pacific cold front is expected to impact the area, in some
form, this weekend and early next week resulting in a gradual
long term cooling trend. Highs will climb back into the mid to
upper 80s (perhaps around 90) for western Nebraska as 700mb
temperatures increase above 10c to 12c. In addition, west to
southwest winds will increase late in the morning and afternoon
hours with good subsidence and additional warming off the
mountains across far eastern Wyoming. Even in Cheyenne,
Wheatland, and Douglas...may see high temperatures in the low to
mid 80s. Widespread record highs are possible Friday afternoon
with daily maxes dating back to the 1910`s to 1950`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

A pattern change is expected in the long term, with a switch to
cooler temperatures and more wet conditions. The change will be
gradual over the weekend, with mild temperatures and mostly dry
conditions expected for the most part. The forecast area will still
be under the influence of southwest flow on Saturday ahead of a
trough that will drop into the Pacific Northwest from Canada. As a
result, 700 mb temperatures will remain on the warm side, ranging
from +10C to +12C. This will cause highs to remain 10 to 20 degrees
above average for this time of year. Southwest flow combined with
weak vort maxes from the incoming trough could lead to the
development of light showers during the afternoon and evening hours.
Mid-level moisture will gradually increase over the western portion
of the CWA, so Carbon and Albany Counties will have the greatest
chance at seeing the shower activity if it manifests. Most guidance
does show the best precipitation west and south of the forecast
area, so any showers that do develop will likely have little
precipitation and not be impactful. A cool down is expected Sunday
as the closed low associated with the trough dives south into
southern California. This will lower 700 mb temperatures a few
degrees, leading to cooler high temperatures. Highs will be knocked
down into the 60s and 70s with ample cloud cover helping cool things
down. Highs will still be about 5 degrees above average, but will
feel much more seasonable. Precipitation chances will be comparable
to Saturday, with light showers possible for the western portion of
the CWA during the afternoon hours. Precipitation chances will
increase overnight as a weak shortwave passes across the area.

The closed low over southern California will stagnate for a few
days, allowing upper-level ridging to actually build back into the
area. The ridge will keep temperatures fairly stable on both Monday
and Tuesday, hovering around average for mid-October. More
importantly, the ridge will keep conditions relatively dry. Models
show little chance of precipitation on Monday and Tuesday.
Precipitation chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday as the
upper-level pattern becomes quite messy. The low over southern
California will weaken and eventually eject eastward along the
Colorado/New Mexico border. Simultaneously, this will interact with
the remnants of what is now Tropical Storm Simon. On top of this,
yet another trough dropping in from Canada will push into western
Wyoming. As a result, Wednesday has the potential to be very wet.
Temperatures will stay seasonable, so snow for the lower elevations
does not look likely with this system at this time. However, the
mountains could see some snow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions will dominate across all the terminals for the
duration of this TAF period. No other aviation weather concerns as
winds, in general, will remain light, 10 knots or less, and variable
across all sites except KRWL and KLAR. These two locations will see
westerly winds ramp up around 16/17Z with gusts near 20 knots for
the afternoon hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for WYZ417>422-425-427-432.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NEZ434.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...RZ