Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

031
FXUS65 KCYS 312343
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
543 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few widely scattered thunderstorms will remain possible
  through Friday evening.

- Another heat wave will build into the area Saturday through
  Monday, producing near record high temperatures Sunday.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
  Sunday and Monday.

- Some relief of the heat is possible during the middle of next
  week as a Canadian cold front moves towards the Front Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Some moisture lingers over the area today as a subtle vort-max rides
over the top of the amplifying ridge locked in over the southwestern
CONUS. Low level moisture return did not quite meet expectations
this morning, so the boundary layer remains fairly dry today despite
better moisture aloft. Weak instability is present mainly along the
Laramie Range in southeast Wyoming, while stronger CIN is apparent
further east. This is helping to support isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. While parameters are not very
favorable for severe weather today, small hail and a few rogue
strong wind gusts will be possible through the evening hours.
Expect storms to struggle once they run into the capping further
east over the High Plains. Look for clearing skies overnight
with temperatures falling to near seasonal averages.

The heat will build in this weekend as a powerful upper level ridge
builds in over the Great Basin. A Pacific trough pushing into the
Pacific northwest will then amplify ridge on its northeastern flank,
sending temperatures soaring once again this weekend. Saturday looks
like a transition day. 700-mb temperatures won`t be too extreme over
our eastern zones, but Wyoming wil be already approaching the 90th
to 97.5 percentile. We should remain below daily record highs, but
it will certainly be a hot day. The I-80 corridor is expected to
reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, while areas to the north can
expect mid to upper 90s. Probabilities for 100F or higher are around
40% in Chadron, and 10% for locations along the North Platte River
valley. As we head into Saturday night, falling surface pressure
over western Wyoming and Montana will increase the pressure gradient
over the High Plains and lead to increasing southerly winds. Wind
gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible at times, likely supporting
very warm overnight lows Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Sunday brings the CWA chances to beat record high temperatures. Dry
air in the low and mid levels, a strong 500mb ridge axis over the
four corners, and 700mb temperatures in the 20 to 23 Celsius
range all make a great setup for high temperatures. Southerly
wind in the Nebraska panhandle are leading to elevated to near
critical fire weather. The southerly winds are upsloping off
the Cheyenne Ridge area, keeping Cheyenne slightly cooler than
most of the CWA, and keeping the area just shy off heat records.
Winds are looking to downslope off of the Pine Ridge, helping
to increase temperatures near Chadron to potential all time
highs. Maximum temperatures west of I-25 are expected to be in
the mid 90s to near 100 degrees, and temperatures east of I-25
to be in the upper 90s to near 108 degrees. Most temperatures
across the area are at or near the 99th percentile and/or all
time maximum temperatures. The hottest temperatures are expected
to be in Sioux, Dawes and Box Butte Counties in the northern
Nebraska panhandle. With these high temperatures and dry air, a
Heat Advisory has been issued for a good portion of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

On Monday, the ridge flattens somewhat as a shortwave trough aloft
and its associated cold front enter our counties from the north,
cooling off temperatures rather significantly across our northern
counties and there may be enough available moisture for isolated
late day thunderstorms over the southern Laramie Range.

Then on Tuesday, expect a relief from the summertime heat in the
wake of a passing Canadian origin cold front, sending maximum
temperatures back into the mid 70s to mid 80s. Moisture looks scant,
perhaps enough for isolated to widely scattered late day
thunderstorms near the southern mountains.

For your Wednesday...Brisk west northwest flow aloft continues and
with progged 700 mb temperatures near 18C, we anticipate maximum
temperatures to rise into the 80s. Models indicate a dry punch at
low and mid levels, effectively cutting off any convection chances
due to warm temperatures aloft producing plenty of CIN, Convective
Inhibition.

Then on Thursday...The heat returns in the warm sector that our
counties will be in to the warm side of the cold front, with maximum
temperatures well into the 90s at most locations.  With scant low
and mid level moisture, no showers or thunderstorms are expected.

For your Friday, the end of the traditional workweek...the heat
continues with highs in the 90s. Not totally buying the GFS progged
Canadian origin cold front sweeping across our counties and
providing heat relief, though your National Weather Service forecast
team will monitor future model trends to see if the cooler push will
come to fruition. Continued dry with limited atmospheric fuel,
moisture availability.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

While a persistent ridge aloft stretches from western Montana to
Arizona today, a weak weather disturbance or shortwave trough
aloft will slide down our forecast area on northwest flow aloft,
producing isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms along and near the I-25 corridor through early
evening. Ridging bulges across Wyoming and Nebraska on Saturday,
effectively ending any chances for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms due to warm temperatures aloft.

Wyoming TAFS...Only made some minor changes due to high
confidence in the long standing experience of our midnight shift
forecaster and the inherited TAFS. Looking at the NAM and
latest HRRR runs, expect isolated to widely scattered showers
and high based thunderstorms to continue to develop through
early evening along an 850/700 mb theta-e ridge axis parallel to
I-25. So, confidence is high enough to include PROB30s at
Cheyenne with a TEMPO at Laramie with wind gusts up to 35
knots. VFR prevails. Clouds clear out after early evening. Wind
gusts to 23 knots through sunset due to surface gradients and
adiabatic mix down winds.

Nebraska TAFS...High confidence that no showers or
thunderstorms, or only isolated thunderstorms, will occur due
to limited available moisture and warm temperatures aloft
producing enough convective inhibition, CIN, to keep it dry. VFR
prevails. Wind gusts to 25 knots until early evening due to
surface gradients and mix down winds. Will see some flat cumulus
development through early evening.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ101-102-104-
     107>109-111-118-119.
NE...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN/ML
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN