Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

606
FXUS65 KCYS 290536
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1136 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of near record warmth and critical fire weather
  conditions is expected to begin today and continue through
  Monday.

- A few high-based virga showers will be possible each evening,
  bringing the potential for gusty and erratic winds and
  isolated lightning.

- A strong cold front arriving Monday night will bring cooler
  temperatures and a chance for rain and snow Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Our warmer days will continue through Monday. Southeast Wyoming will
continue to have rather gusty winds through this evening as upticks
in the 700mb jet occur. These upticks combined with RH values below
15 percent wont do us any favors for our Fire weather conditions and
even the smallest flame is likely to spark a quick uncontrollable
grassland fire in these conditions. So the Red Flag Warning was kept
for today and tomorrow. Another not so great factor is going to be
our shower development this evening. With our stout dry layer over
Southeast Wyoming most if not all of the precipitation will likely
be evaporated before hitting the ground. There is some additional
synoptic lift through a vorticity max swinging through as well as
the later in the day timing that will help us have some minute
precipitation hit the ground. But it doesn`t look likely to be
enough to really dampen the soil for the evening. These showers
really increase the chance for a fire to develop due to dry
lightning as these showers mature and develop a weak updraft to
really polarize the ice crystals and produce lightning. Also due to
nature of the evaporative precipitation, gusty winds much like a
microburst will be likely underneath these showers. Those gusts may
get amplified by our environmental winds to which brief but powerful
gusts near 60mph may be possible. These showers are expected to be
relatively short-lived and start to dissipate throughout the night.
The winds also look to die down close to midnight for Laramie and
east with some sporadic wind gusts near Rawlins and Saratoga
possibly lasting through the night. By tomorrow/Sunday morning,
these gusty winds will pick right back up and shift further east
into the Nebraska Panhandle. Thats when the Red Flag warning will go
into effect for the Panhandle as the gusty winds will increase their
ability to spread quickly if any fires are sparked. These Red Flags
warnings are set to expire Monday evening. The longevity of the Red
Flag conditions can also be attributed to the poor RH recoveries of
30-40 percent overnight and dropping into the low teens the
following afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The long-term period will feature more active and much cooler
weather relative to the record-breaking warmth we have experienced
recently. As the stubborn mid-level ridge axis continues to shift to
the east, a cold front will move across Southeastern Wyoming and
Western Nebraska early Tuesday morning. This is associated with a
progged 1000 mb lee cyclone that will rapidly propagate well to our
east, with a seasonably cold air mass establishing itself over
Wyoming and Nebraska thanks to a 1028 mb anticyclone located over
the Dakotas. In terms of how cold we will get, ensemble guidance
shows daytime high temperatures on Tuesday being 30 degrees cooler
than Monday`s highs, translating to temperatures in the 30s and 40s.

In terms of moisture, there will be a favorable anticyclonic upslope
regime in place on Tuesday in addition to weak 700 mb warm air
advection. This can also be seen via isentropic ascent on the 300K
theta surface, which should last well into Wednesday. In terms of
QPF, LREF 50th percentile values are around 0.10-0.15" along the
Cheyenne Ridge, with the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges being the
favored spots for this event (0.20-0.25") Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Precipitation type will likely remain as snow through
this forecast period and amounts along and east of the I-25 corridor
should remain light with values generally in the 1-2" range.
Forecast soundings do show some mid-level dry air across SE Wyoming
on Tuesday, so we might struggle to get much snow at the
surface until we sufficiently moisten and cool the column. We
will take anything we can get after this stretch of record-
breaking warmth and little to no moisture.

Temperatures will rebound on Wednesday and will approach seasonal
values in the 50s across Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska
as 500 mb heights rise ahead of our next closed low that will be
moving in from the north and west sometime towards the end of the
work week. Thursday will be the warmest day of this period with
temperatures approaching 60 degrees east of I-25, and 40s and 50s
further west.

Ensembles are in disagreement with the timing and amplitude of the
system that will begin to impact the Rocky Mountain region Friday
into the weekend. As this is still 6-7 days out, the trend will
favor cooler, unsettled conditions with precipitation chances
returning into the weekend. Details will become more apparent in the
next few days once ensemble clusters come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period. Showers
continue to move across southeast Wyoming, and may produce gusty
and erratic winds at RWL, LAR, and CYS for the next few hours.
Lighter winds will prevail in the early morning hours before
picking up once again mid Sunday morning. Look for gusts
generally 25 to 35 knots through sunset. A few virga showers
Sunday evening may lead to another round of localized gusty
winds.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ417>423-425-
     427>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for
     NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...MN