Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

060
FXUS65 KCYS 040530
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1030 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisories will be expiring this evening for
  our western zones as snow accumulation begins to decline.

- Another round of accumulating snow is expected Thursday
  afternoon through Saturday morning, with models beginning to
  come into agreement on snow potential through our entire CWA
  including locations east of the Laramie Range.

- The pattern will shift to mostly dry and above normal
  temperatures after Saturday and persist through the start of
  next week with high winds possible during this time as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

After yesterday`s very active system brought much needed
moisture and an early start to our spring thunderstorm activity,
the trough that produced this activity is moving out of the
region, with snow and light rain/snow mix expected to continue
through this evening before fully departing. Winter Weather
Advisories will continue through this evening before expiring,
but some light accumulations can be expected through expiration
and perhaps even right after. Light rain will also shift
eastwards primarily across the I-80 corridor, and as
temperatures drop may begin mixing with snow, but accumulations
are not expected to be noteworthy. Meanwhile, the snow that has
already accumulated has begun driving temperatures down west of
the Laramie Range. Have pulled down highs and lows over the next
day or so to account for this, but depending on how strong this
snowpack is may need to adjust further in coming updates,
particularly for tomorrow.

Moving into Wednesday and early Thursday, transient ridging will
bring dry conditions alongside warming temperatures as highs
rise back into the 50`s and 60`s east of the Laramie Range,
while highs may remain in the 30`s to 40`s to the west. While
some patchy spots of low RH values into the 20`s and possibly
high teens will be possible for our northeastern zones across
Wyoming and Nebraska, winds should remain low and with recent
precipitation, critical fire weather conditions will be
unlikely.

But then Thursday during the late morning into early afternoon
the next system expected to impact our area will begin moving
into the region. We`ll find the CWA under the left exit region
of a low-level jet before the trough bringing this feature then
forms into a cutoff Colorado low. Models are beginning to come
into better agreement on this system and its impacts, with a
widespread snowfall event now expected for our area through
Saturday morning. Currently the mountains do get the bulk of the
precipitation, with accumulations around 6-10 inches, but
locally heavier amounts nearing a foot possible at the peaks and
crests. Meanwhile the wrap around moisture and cooler
temperatures should actually fuel snow for once east of the I-25
corridor, with a widespread 1-5 inches currently expected
through the Nebraska Panhandle. Because model agreement is just
starting to come together on this system, some fluctuations to
these accumulations are possible, and if this low does slow down
we could see amounts on the rise. For now, expectations are
that we`ll need winter products for much of the area, but a few
warning level products may be possible as well depending on how
this evolves. And with this colder shot of air, we`ll actually
see highs below normal for once as temperatures struggle to get
out of the 30`s on Friday during the bulk of this precipitation.
If snow manages to accumulate during the morning on Friday, we
may see highs even below freezing for the day as well. Overall
this will be a dynamic system that could change notably in the
coming runs, but should be one of the more impactful systems
we`ve seen since the start of the year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

The weekend will begin with a mid-level ridge building in across the
High Plains which will be located in the left-entrance region of a
125 knot 250 mb jet, resulting in large-scale subsidence and dry
conditions. Winds will begin to ramp up at this time as 50 knot
zonal 700 mb flow will be in place. In-house random forest guidance
has 80% probabilities of high wind conditions (> 58 mph) in the wind-
prone areas of Bordeaux and Arlington. This is also reflected on the
omega fields which show a classic mountain wave pattern. Model cross-
sections also indicate a mountain-top stable layer given by a tight
potential temperature gradient within the 700-600 mb layer which is
a favorable signature for strong downsloping winds.

We will remain downstream of a cut-off low that is located over
Southern California and the Baja Peninsula, placing us in a zonal
flow regime. This will translate to dry and windy conditions with
above-average temperatures into early next week. This cut-off low
will eventually be ingested into the overall flow regime and will
propagate towards the east as an open wave. While this shortwave
trough is expected to remain well to our south, it may provide
sufficient lift to promote some light precipitation. Generally,
forcing for ascent appears to be weak at this time and given our
progged location in the right exit region of a 150 knot jet (prime
for subsidence), chances for beneficial moisture are low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

The storm system, which brought rain and snow to the region Tuesday,
will continue moving southeast into the central plains tonight and
Wednesday.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail for most
terminals tonight and into Wednesday with clearing skies. There are
still some concerns of fog, but most observed fog has been brief and
limited in coverage. Kept VCFG for KLAR and KRWL for now with TEMPO
IFR conditions possible until 13z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     WYZ103-110-112-114-116.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...TJT