Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

937
FXUS65 KCYS 031917
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
117 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue
  into the next week.

- Fire weather concerns will increase on Monday alongside a
  chance at record high temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The weekend continues to look pleasant as we see temperatures
around 10-15 degrees above normal with highs in the 70`s to low
80`s and subsidence keeping skies mostly clear. Low temperatures
overnight into Sunday will be in the widespread 40`s, with 40`s
to 50`s as we move into the start of the work week. Dry
conditions will also bring elevated fire weather concerns, but
widespread critical conditions are not expected.

This changes on Monday as the ridge shifts slightly eastwards
directly over us before beginning to flatten a bit later in the
day due to troughing to the north. Because of this, 850mb
temperatures will surge to just in excess of 31C, and our
corresponding surface temperatures will jump into the upper 70`s
through upper 80`s with even a rogue 90 possible, meaning highs
20+ degrees above normal are expected. This will also threaten
daily record highs across the entirety of the region, with many
cities expected to tie or break these temperatures. Dry air
accompanies this as well with RH values plummeting into the mid
to low teens for the day, and with winds just breezy enough in
the 20-30 mph range, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect because of this,
with the expectation it will be upgraded. Confidence is high in
this forecast with near unanimous agreement in ensembles and
probabilistic forecasts; in fact, the spread between the 10th
through 90th percentiles for Monday`s high in Cheyenne is 1
degree of difference (83-84 F). These conditions should relax a
bit moving into the long term, but expect Monday to be likely
the warmest day of the month.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

On Tuesday a diffused upper level trough makes its way into the Four
Corners region. This feature would flatten the upper level ridge
that has been parked over the area the last few days. The trough
would also bring an uptick in moisture, perhaps enough to kick off a
few showers and storms over higher elevations. Even with the
weakened ridge, our flow is still primarily out of the northwest and
the surface will remain dry and warm. Afternoon high temperatures
are likely to be in the low to mid 80s north and east of I-25. Mid
to high 70s possible west. Relative humidity values in the teens
could promote elevated fire weather conditions. Thankfully winds are
not expected to be particular strong and overnight recoveries are
fair.

Wednesday through Saturday is a rather uneventful stretch from a
meteorological perspective. Afternoon highs stay above average in
the high 70s to mid 80s. Mostly clear skies are expected. There are
no clear signals in model guidance for an appreciable disturbance,
just weak zonal flow on the north end of a weak upper level ridge.
We may have to wait until next weekend for a chance of a disturbance
in this stagnant pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the forecast period. Scattered
cirrus clouds are present over much of the area, with periods of
clear skies. Winds are gusty out of the north between 15 and 35
knots. The winds have been trending higher than forecasted.
Around sunset winds begin to calm to become variable at most
terminals. In the morning the winds shift out of the south and
pick up with the diurnal cycle.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for WYZ418>422-427-430-432.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...RV