Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

444
FXUS65 KCYS 250531
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1131 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures will return to the area today and continue
  into early next week, producing near record highs Saturday
  through Monday.

- Widely scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible over the weekend. The primary hazard will be gusty
  winds.

- Another surge of monsoon moisture will arrive Monday,
  increasing rainfall chances for the early part of the work
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Drier air has moved in from the west over southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska in the wake of the prior day`s monsoonal
moisture surge. While the southwestern ridge remains in place
just to the south of the Four Corners region, lower PWAT values
have moved in over southern Wyoming along the northern periphery
of this ridge axis. As a result of dramatically less moisture in
forecast soundings, much lower shower and thunderstorm chances
exist for today. In fact, only a few very isolated showers are
in the forecast for the Snowy Range and south Laramie range,
generally between the 0z to 5z timeframe. Convective-Allowing Model
data has been rather inconsistent with these shower chances,
with typically humid-biased models such as the Nam NEST
suggesting even lower shower chances than the HRRR. While it is
likely that not a drop of rain will reach the surface anywhere
in the CWA today, we will maintain very low-end PoPs (around
15%) for Cheyenne westward through the Snowy Range given the
HRRR/FV3`s persistence in showing returns in these areas. The
other story today will be the heat. Temperatures will run around
10 degrees warmer than yesterday given drier air and slightly
higher heights. This warmth will only be a preview of the days
to come.

On Saturday, height rises and light downslope westerly flow on
the northern periphery of the monsoon ridge will result in
temperatures warming by another 5 degrees or so. Very high
confidence in this hot and generally dry weather pattern exists
for Saturday and the remainder of the weekend, with ensemble
temperature forecasts tightly clustered just shy of record
values. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most areas east
of the Laramie Range from Saturday afternoon through Monday.
Convective chances on Saturday will run a bit higher than
Friday, but not by much. PWAT values only look to inch upward by
a few hundredths, and most CAM guidance supports only widely
scattered showers and perhaps some thunder. Still, given the
plethora of summertime weekend activities ongoing across
southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, it will be good to stay
weather aware. Forecast soundings do show some elevated and
extremely high-based instability which could result in a few
lightning strikes. Despite recent rains, dry fuels combined with
lightning and limited precipitation will be a concern on
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Sunday...Current Heat Advisory looks on track. Primary challenge
will be the heat, under the dominant ridge aloft, with record high
temperatures likely at Laramie, Cheyenne, Chadron, Alliance,
Scottsbluff and Sidney, as 700 mb temperatures from 20 to 23 Celsius
yield maximum temperatures in the lower 90s west of I-25, with 97 to
106 degrees east of I-25.

Record high temperatures for July 26th include the following current
records...

100 degrees in 2025 at Alliance...105 degrees in 2021 at Chadron...
104 degrees in 1935 at Scottsbluff...99 degrees in 2011 at Sidney...
89 degrees in 2016 at Laramie...and 95 degrees in 1910 at Cheyenne.

Monday...Strong ridging aloft continues with near record high
temperatures at Cheyenne, Chadron, Alliance and Sidney using 700 mb
temperatures from 19 to 22 Celsius. Thus current Heat Advisory looks
on track.

Record high temperatures for July 27th include the following current
records...

104 degrees in 1931 at Alliance...106 degrees in 1931 at Chadron...
102 degrees in 1975 at Scottsbluff...101 degrees in 2012 at Sidney
and 94 degrees in 1960 at Cheyenne.

Tuesday...Cooler temperatures expected as low and mid level moisture
increases along with cloud cover. Monsoonal type moisture and
diurnal and differential orographic heating will produce scattered
to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, most numerous
across and near the Snowy, Sierra Madre and Laramie Ranges.

Wednesday...A passing shortwave trough aloft will combine with
plenty of low and mid level atmospheric moisture to produce
scattered afternoon and evening showers and beneficial rains,
primarily over and near the mountains.

Thursday...Ridging aloft reasserts itself over Wyoming and Colorado,
with drying in the atmosphere noted on the models, thus will see a
decrease in late day shower and thunderstorm coverage, with areal
coverage highest over and near the mountains.

Friday...The flow aloft turns northerly, with the bulk of the
monsoonal moisture moving into western Nebraska, and drier air
infiltrating southeast Wyoming, thus it seems likely that showers
and thunderstorms will eventually be confined to western Nebraska,
with lesser chances over southeast Wyoming.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Clear skies and generally light winds are expected overnight
tonight across the area. South to southwest winds gusting around
20 knots will kick up by midday Saturday. Widely scattered
high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday
afternoon and evening across the area. While the probability for
VIS drops due to heavy rainfall are fairly low, this activity
will have the potential to produce multiple rounds of occasional
lightning and gusty and erratic winds at all terminals. This
will be fairly disorganized, and thus pinpointing exact timing
is tricky. For now, all terminals have PROB30 groups for
strong, variable wind gusts between 20z and 02z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 9 PM MDT Monday for
     WYZ101-102-107-108-118-119.
NE...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 9 PM MDT Monday for
     NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MN