Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

122
FXUS65 KCYS 240830
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
230 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front early this morning will result in much cooler
  temperatures this weekend with temperatures around 5 to 10
  degrees below normal.

- Widespread rainfall and mountain snowfall expected Sunday and
  Monday as a central Pacific system lifts northeast across the
  Front Range.

- Near normal temperatures and a bit warmer by Tuesday into
  Wednesday, but next Pacific system will be approaching from
  the Pacific Northwest by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Pretty quiet early this morning as a (mostly) dry cold front
has pushed southeast across the area with winds shifting into
the north. The actual colder airmass still remains to our north
across central Wyoming, but expect this to move south into the
I-80 corridor over the next few hours with temperatures likely
dropping into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Once this front moves
southward and stalls near the mountains, some low clouds are
expected...but not expecting any fog at this time through early
Saturday morning. KCYS radar shows some returns over Platte and
Niobrara county (near the front), but it is unlikely any of this
rainfall is reaching the ground. Mostly post-frontal stable
conditions for Saturday with little, if any, forcing and cooler
than average temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s, warmest
over western Nebraska. Impacts from the upper level low to our
southwest will likely hold off until this evening.

Models show the next Pacific storm system, responsible for the
flooding concerns across the Desert Southwest, slowly lifting
northeast later today and Saturday night. Models indicate decent
moisture advection ahead of this system, with PWATs above the
90th to 98th percentile for late October. Forcing looks
sufficient with this system, at least enough to produce some
moderate rainfall amounts due to a negatively tilted trough as
the upper low becomes an open wave on Sunday. Upper level
diffluence is strongest near the Wyoming/Nebraska border and is
colocated with decent upslope easterly flow and additional low
level convergence near the 700mb low and the surface low to our
south. Looks like a good case of widespread 0.20-0.50 inch of
rainfall across the region, lowest amounts west of the Laramie
Range. Some amounts across western Nebraska may approach 1.00
inch of rain Sunday night as the base of the trough axis slowly
lifts northeast over the region. Kept POP above 60 percent for
most of the area outside of Carbon County. Snow accumulations
are forecast for the mountains, but this will also be the lowest
QPF region to the west of the best dynamics, so snow amounts
should generally be less than 5 inches, even above 10,000 feet.
Cool temperatures will continue on Sunday with lows near
freezing early Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The work week will begin unsettled as a weak, inverted lee trough
will be located to our south and east over the Central High Plains.
This feature is associated with a rather broad mid-level shortwave
trough, placing much of the Nebraska Panhandle at the inflection
point between a weak downstream ridge located over the Upper
Midwest, resulting in upper-level ageostrophic divergence and the
formation of a weak surface low to our east. The strongest forcing
for ascent at this time looks to set up over the Nebraska Panhandle
and points further east, bringing chances for precipitation
primarily east of the I-25 corridor during the day on Monday.
Ensembles at this time have trended down from previous runs, with
ECMWF ensemble means having 0.15-0.2" of QPF for Cheyenne, with
locations in the Panhandle seeing upwards of 0.5", which would
certainly help out with our drought conditions. Ensemble guidance
suggests PWAT at or above the 95th percentile relative to
climatology (~0.7") in the Panhandle, so heavy rain will be a threat
especially if we see any convective elements over the area despite
the main instability axis progged to remain well to the south and
east over Kansas and Central Nebraska.

In terms of precipitation type, temperatures at this time look to be
too warm for any snow (generally below 8000-9000 feet), as LREF
guidance keeps 25th percentile minimum temperatures mainly in the
mid to upper 30s east of the I-25 corridor, with low to mid-30s
Monday morning for locations west of the Laramie Range. Places like
Rawlins and Laramie will be away from the bulk of the forcing for
ascent at this time, so will likely stay dry despite seeing slightly
cooler temperatures. A weak cold front is progged to move through SE
Wyoming and the NE Panhandle sometime late Monday into early
Tuesday, which will result in slightly cooler overnight lows Tuesday
morning, with locations west of I-25 waking up to temperatures at or
slightly below freezing, and mid to upper 30s to the east. The
shortwave trough ejects off to the north and east during the day
Tuesday, placing us under a SW flow regime on the southern periphery
of a rather amplified negatively-tilted shortwave trough lifting
over Idaho and the Northern Great Basin. The strongest forcing for
ascent looks to remain well to our north over Northern Wyoming and
the Dakotas, so conditions for us look to remain mostly dry, with
the exception of the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges which may manage
to pick up some light snowfall, though ensemble guidance keeps
totals under 1-2" and confined to the higher peaks. High
temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be at or slightly above
climatology with highs in the low 60s east of the Laramie Range, and
low 50s to the west.

Wednesday, anticyclonic wave breaking over Northern British Columbia
will serve to strengthen the geopotential height gradient associated
with a closed low located off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
This, combined with an additional secondary shortwave trough located
off the Oregon coast will serve to increase southwesterly 700-500 mb
flow up to 50-60 knots, introducing the possibility for a high wind
event, primarily for our wind-prone areas of Arlington and Bordeaux
(tis` the season!). Model cross-sections along the I-80 corridor
show mountain wave signatures that are reflective in the omega
fields, however a mountain-top stable layer is lacking, which may be
a limiting factor for a more high-end and widespread high wind
event. As it stands, in-house random forecast guidance has around
40% probabilities of Arlington experiencing high wind conditions
Wednesday morning, with Bordeaux at around 20%, so while it may be
gusty, stay tuned for potential high wind highlights as we get
closer to this timeframe. Given gusty, downsloping conditions, high
temperatures on Wednesday will continue to remain mild, with highs
slightly above climatology in the low 60s east of the I-25 corridor,
and 50s to the west.

Heading towards the end of the work week, a negtaively-tilted ridge
will begin to amplify, with the ridge axis located mainly to the
east of our area, placing us under southwesterly flow. As 500 mb
height anomalies increase to +1-2 sigma relative to climatology, can
expect dry conditions and a slight warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Winds will shift more northerly late tonight as a cold front moves
across the area. Gusty winds are expected behind the front with
gusts over 20 kts expected early Saturday morning. Cannot rule out
brief MVFR CIGs with the frontal passage with HREF probability of
low CIGs currently sitting between 30 and 50 percent for KCYS and
KCDR. Winds will begin to weaken later in the day on Saturday, with
increasing precipitation chances during the evening hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...SF