Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

855
FXUS65 KCYS 121145
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
545 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to record warmth expected Wednesday under high pressure
  aloft.

- Critical fire conditions possible again on Thursday and Friday
  alongside strong winds and dry conditions.

- Next chance for precipitation returns during the weekend
  alongside cooler conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Surface observations early this morning show the leading edge of
the cold front near the Interstate 80 corridor with westerly
winds continuing at Cheyenne and south of Kimball and Sidney,
with north to northeast winds north of Interstate 80 across most
of the high plains. This front is pretty weak and shallow, so
even cloud cover has been limited with little return from the
KCYS radar so far. Expect this to continue this morning as the
front will stall near the Laramie Range and dissipate by this
evening. Although high temperatures will be around 10 to 15
degrees cooler compared to Monday, it will still be around 10
degrees above average for mid May. Not as cool tonight as one
would expect after a cold frontal passage, mainly since all
models show quick low to midlevel WAA as another ridge axis
builds across the Rocky Mountain Region. This will keep low
temperatures above average for this time of the year into early
Wednesday morning.

Upper level ridge axis rebuilds over the Front Range for Wednesday
with 700mb temperatures ranging from 10c to 15c, which translates
to surface highs in the 80s across the whole forecast area and
low 90s below elevations of 4500 feet. So another pleasant
spring day is expected. Models are now showing a bit more convective
activity in the afternoon, mainly along and west of the Interstate
25 corridor. This is in response to terrain-influenced convergence
axis along the Laramie Range and along the spine of the Rocky
Mountains extending into the Snowy Range. Surface winds will be
out of the southeast across the high plains, but more out of the
southwest across Carbon and Albany counties during the day.
Some low level moisture will be present with dewpoints near 40f.
In addition, models do show a weak midlevel shortwave moving
into the area by the late afternoon hours. Confident enough to
introduce a slight chance of thunderstorms along and just east
of the Laramie Range later Wednesday afternoon. Convection will
struggle against the intensity of the upper level ridge, but the
midlevel shortwave should be enough to justify isolated
coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Fairly quiet end to the week on the backside of a departing upper-
level trough Thursday. Southwesterly flow will slowly turn
northwesterly aloft then back westerly throughout the day Thursday
as the trough moves out, leading to clearing skies throughout the
day. The 700mb low will remain in southern Canada throughout the
day, but height gradients will remain strong as a 50 to 55kt,
westerly 700mb jet develops across the Laramie Range Thursday
morning then weakens to around 45kts for the remainder of the
afternoon and evening hours. With strong westerly flow at 700mb,
strong westerly flow is anticipated near the surface, especially as
a 5mb surface pressure gradient develops across Carbon County with
increasing gradients along and east of the Laramie Range. In-house
random forest guidance suggests increasing probability for a lower-
end high wind event setting up across much of the area Thursday,
with 50% chance at Arlington and Rawlins, as well as a 40% chance at
Bordeaux. One drawback is that the 700mb flow will not be that
strong for very long, with the likely peak period of 700mb jet
strength between about 12Z and 18Z Thursday. During this time,
downward omega values are modest to strong, for a May event that is,
with decent support between 800 and 700mb. Confidence is not there
at this time to warrant a High Wind Watch, but Thursday morning and
afternoon will be a time to pay attention to over the next several
days, especially as hires model guidance becomes available.

In addition to the potential for high winds Thursday, downsloping
along the Laramie Range will lead to afternoon minimum humidity
values dropping well below the 15% criteria for Red Flag Warnings.
single digit humidity values will be possible Thursday afternoon
east of the Laramie Range, with values west of the Laramie Range
between 10 and 15%. With the recent green-up across the region from
the snow and rain showers, fuels remain unfavorable for burning
across southeast Wyoming. However, fuels remain dry and ready to
burn across western Nebraska. Fire Weather headlines may be needed
for Thursday in the coming days, especially with overnight
recoveries Thursday into Friday likely only around 30 to 40%, as
well as the very gusty conditions anticipated Thursday afternoon.
With afternoon temperatures reaching the upper-70s to mid-80s east
of the Laramie Range, favorable fire spread conditions are
anticipated to develop across western Nebraska by the afternoon.

Friday onwards will be largely dominated by upper-level zonal flow
across much of the region. Temperatures will be quite warm Friday
and Saturday as 700mb temperatures increase above about 7 to 10C
each afternoon. Highs on Friday are anticipated to be in the low-70s
to mid-80s, with Saturday being slightly warmer in the mid-70s to
low-90s. Afternoon minimum humidity values look to remain quite low
Friday and Saturday, likely between 10 to 15% each day. Luckily,
winds will be on the lighter side across western Nebraska, where
fuels are ready to burn, and breezier across southeast Wyoming,
where green-up has decreased fire spread potential. That being said,
hot and dry conditions may still favor easier fire starts, though
rapid fire spread is not anticipated at this time. Instability will
start increasing Saturday afternoon with the continued, hot pattern,
as well as a cold front pushing through the area. An isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible Saturday, especially across
western Nebraska, as is common as we move into the Spring and Summer
months.

The next potentially system looks to arrive Sunday into Monday as an
upper-level trough deepens over the western CONUS. There is
significant disagreement in long range models at this time, as far
as this system is concerned. The GFS suggests a strong, positively
tilted system slowly moving across the Intermountain West Sunday
through Tuesday, whereas the ECMWF suggests a quicker moving,
shortwave trough moving through Sunday with a secondary shortwave
trough moving through Monday into Tuesday. Both models still suggest
increasing precipitation chances to end the weekend and to start the
work week, but exact details and timing are highly uncertain at this
time. However, with the warmer weather and 700mb temperature progged
to remain right around the -3 to 0C range, primarily rain is
anticipated with this system, whether that be in two waves or one,
longer lasting wave. Any precipitation that is received will be
quite welcomed, especially after several days of hot temperatures
and little to no precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Northerly flow will bring cooler temperatures to the region as a
weak cold front moves south across Colorado and stalls today. Mostly
clear skies and dry conditions will continue.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will persist over the next 24
hours with relatively light winds for most terminals. Northwest
winds may gust up to 25 knots at KRWL and KLAR this afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...TJT