Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

200
FXUS65 KCYS 292237
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
337 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A backdoor cold front will bring cloud cover, colder
  temperatures, and snow chances to the high plains on Friday.
  Minimal accumulations expected.

- Mild and dry weather expected over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 332 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

Radar and observations show light showers over the Nebraska
panhandle early this afternoon, caused by a shortwave moving across
the high plains. The better plume of moisture sits over the Dakotas
and central Nebraska, so little accumulation of both rain and snow
is expected this afternoon. A few lingering showers could be
possible overnight, but again, nothing impactful is expected.

Early Friday morning, a backdoor cold front will begin to creep into
the northern Nebraska panhandle out of South Dakota. This front will
bring a layer of low stratus, cold temperatures, and snow chances.
The western and southern extent of the front is still a little iffy
as models don`t always do the best with these backdoor fronts.
However, it does look shallow enough that if it did make it as far
west as the Laramie Range, it would not make it past the terrain
into Albany and Carbon Counties. Most models bring the front as far
west as the Wyoming/Nebraska border and south into Colorado. Highest
confidence for coldest temperatures during the day Friday will be in
the northern Nebraska panhandle. Cold air aloft, as well as ample
cloud cover and precipitation chances will likely lead to highs
below freezing. Most other locations in the CWA will only see high
temperatures in the 30s and low 40s. Once again, most models keep
the precipitation in the Nebraska panhandle along the frontal
boundary. However, cannot rule out some light snow showers or
flurries in the Interstate 25 corridor. Accumulations will remain
below an inch as fronts this cold usually do not contain a lot of
moisture. The "highest" snow amounts are expected in the Pine Ridge
and cities north of it. Snow will taper off across the panhandle
during the evening hours.

Friday night, another upper-level shortwave will move across Montana
and northern Wyoming. This could potentially lead to another round
of snow showers, this time in the mountains and the northern zones
of the CWA. Little to no accumulation is expected with this
progressive system with precipitation moving out of the area by
Saturday morning. Behind the shortwave, winds will increase
with elevated to brief high winds possible in the typical wind
prone areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 332 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

Long term period initiates with a highly amplified pattern in place,
characterized by western CONUS ridging and subsequent downstream
troughing. A weak upper level impulse riding the northwest flow
aloft on Saturday morning may clip the county warning area but
nothing more than a few snow showers over the higher terrain areas
of SE WY along with the far eastern sections of the NE panhandle are
expected. Snow amounts will be minimal.

The aforementioned ridge will dominate starting Saturday afternoon
and will continue to do so on Sunday and Monday, No precipitation is
expected with temperatures warming with time. Downsloping off the
higher terrain will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 40s to
mid 50s on the leeward side of the mountains.

Guidance remains consistent with developing a rather stout ridge
along the west coast starting around Tuesday which places the CWA in
northwest flow aloft. Overall the models remain in good agreement but
there are some subtle differences with one solution showing a weak
shortwave or two moving through while others remain dry. Even if
these shortwaves come to fruition, they look largely non descript
with little if any significant moisture. Temperatures will be
knocked down somewhat Tuesday and Wednesday with deeper northwest
flow before heights rise again Thursday to close out the period.

Bottom line is the long term period will largely be dominated by
upper ridging with minimal chances of precipitation and virtually
no chances of meaningful precipitation. Temperatures look to average
well above average early in the period, near average in the middle
of it, before climbing to well above normal again at its
conclusion.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1024 AM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the Wyoming
terminals. Looking at Satellite observations the cloud deck may
drop into the VFR/MVFR borderline ceiling heights. Expect the
cloud deck to be highly variable over the next 24 hours for the
Panhandle. Wind gusts look to start soon if they haven`t already
for the panhandle. Another trough will pass through tomorrow
with KCDR ceiling dropping to around 1000-1500ft by 12z and the
rest of the panhandle dropping to 2500ft after 18z tomorrow.
depending on the surface moisture content some snow may drop
with these lower ceilings. However, there is a chance the the
surface is too dry and virga may occur.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...MM