Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

151
FXUS65 KCYS 050614
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1214 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue
  into the next week.

- Fire weather concerns will increase on Monday alongside a
  chance at record high temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1212 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Heading into the start of the work week, warmer and drier conditions
are expected for Monday. Although the ridge over the Four Corners
will begin to weaken, 700 mb temperatures will continue to rise. 700
mb temperatures will warm above +12C, which is above the 99th
percentile for NAEFS climatology. The anomalously warm air
aloft will lead to a hot fall day, with highs ranging from the
upper 70s to low 90s. As a result, a few locations are likely to
break record highs. Records will most likely be broken in
southeast Wyoming, however it is possible that a few Nebraska
locations will be within a degree or two of current records.
With the ridge weakening, winds will turn more westerly,
leading to breezy conditions across southeast Wyoming during the
afternoon hours. Westerly winds will cause downsloping and dry
conditions, leading to critical fire weather conditions. With no
precipitation chances in sight, Red Flag Warnings are already
in place for Monday afternoon for portions of southeast Wyoming.
Winds will ease Monday night after sunset, however overnight
humidity recoveries are expected to be poor.

With the ridge continuing to break down on Tuesday,
temperatures will be slightly cooler compared to Monday. The
weakening ridge will allow for northwest flow over the area,
which will lower high temperatures a few degrees. However, 700
mb temperatures will still remain in the 99th percentile and
above per NAEFS climatology, meaning that it is possible a few
record highs could be broken or tied once again on Tuesday.
There will also be a weak disturbance aloft over the
Colorado/Utah border. As a result, some Hi-Res guidance does
show the potential for a few light showers sneaking into the
high terrain during the afternoon hours. The surface and the
mid-level still remain very dry, so precipitation chances will
remain under 15 percent for the time being.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Not a whole lot of interesting developments in the long term from
previous forecasts. A weak NW flow regime is in place while an upper
level low bats back the ridge to our south. The weaker ridging
pattern will allow temperatures to lower a tad Wednesday through the
end of the forecast period, which is a plus. Highs in the 80s east
and 70s out west. Lows in the 50s and 40s. Humidity values stay low,
in the low 20s and teens and winds start increasing ahead of the
next Pacific trough. Global models are starting to come into focus
on this system. The evolution is still uncertain, particularly on
how compact and amplified this trough enters the scene, but the
presence of this system is becoming more certain. A compact system
would bring greater southwesterly winds. Not the greatest news when
combined with the dry afternoon humidities for elevated fire
concerns next weekend.

The ensembles start diverging greatly on Sunday. A cold
front in some of the solutions is driving a nearly 10 to 25 degree
spread in ensemble members. A good cold front and Pacific system
would bring in rain and storms. Temperatures would still be on the
warm side for snow, outside of mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across most of the terminals for the
duration of this TAF period. Overnight, a few low level clouds may
develop and effect KBFF. Breezy winds at KCDR and KSNY will become
variable and generally less than 10 knots. Heading into Monday, with
the diurnal cycle, winds ramp back up by 17Z for the Wyoming
terminals out of the west to northwest with gusts between 20 to 25
knots. Otherwise, with a persistent ridge in place, expect more of
the same on Monday with mainly clear skies across the CWA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for
     WYZ418>422-427-430-432.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...RZ