Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

646
FXUS65 KCYS 241106
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
506 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will carry through Memorial Day weekend, with
  near record high temperatures possible by Monday.

- Isolated high-based showers and storms will be possible each
  afternoon over the long weekend, but rainfall will be
  limited.

- Potential for thunderstorms and rainfall will increase Tuesday
  and continue through much of next week. Stronger storms
  possible on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Zonal flow aloft continues through the early evening hours today
before southwesterly flow returns ahead of an incoming upper-level
low off the southern coast of California. The southwesterly shift in
the upper-level flow will open a gate of Pacific moisture to funnel
into the CWA throughout much of the day Monday and into Tuesday as
well. Ahead of the incoming trough, multiple lobes of 500mb
vorticity will eject out and into the region, leading to synoptic
ascent during the afternoon to early evening hours Sunday. 700mb
flow suggests a few weak, subtle disturbances pushing through the
flow, further supporting additional synoptic ascent into the
afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, 700mb warm air advection
will be abundant across the CWA, leading to increasing confidence in
enough lift across the region to get a few isolated to scattered
showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Hires guidance
suggests isolated showers and storms mainly along and east of the
Laramie Range. The biggest factor preventing showers and storm
development today will be low-level moisture. Forecast RAP soundings
suggests a pretty typical, strong Inverted-V signature with large
DCAPE and minimal SBCAPE, likely only around 100-200 J/kg.
Therefore, any shower that develops today will likely struggle to
get rain to actually reach the surface, given the very dry low-
levels. Additionally, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE is enough to get some
lightning strikes across the area. With precipitation likely
evaporating before reaching the ground, dry lightning is possible.
Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the 70s and 80s, with
clouds increasing from west to east throughout the day and into the
overnight hours. Overnight lows will remain on the warmer side, due
to the increasing cloud coverage, remaining in the 40s and 50s
across the region.

Monday will be a transitional day as the upper-level trough evolves
and moves into the southwestern CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will
continue to funnel more Pacific moisture into the region, with
strong southerlies develop across the Intermountain West as the day
progresses. Multiple vorticity maxima will continue to eject out
ahead of the re-organizing trough near the Four Corners Region,
while 700mb warm air advection ramps up across the region.
Therefore, another day of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms is expected across the region. Forecast RAP soundings
once again suggests Inverted-V signatures everywhere, though MUCAPE
and SBCAPE will be significantly higher on Monday, between 300 and
500 J/kg. While precipitation will not be favored to reach the
ground with the dry surface-layer, if a strong enough storm is able
to form, it could produce decent enough rainfall to get some
reaching the surface. There is low confidence in this right now. One
thing that is quite confident is that Monday will be hot.
Temperatures west of the Laramie Range will rise into the mid-70s to
low-80s, while temperatures soar into the low-80s to low-90s east of
the Laramie Range, with the warmest temperatures across western
Nebraska.

Stout southerly flow is expected by Tuesday morning as the upper-
level trough over the Four Corners region starts to move northward
before getting absorbed by the much stronger, and still
strengthening, trough dropping south along the West Coast. With the
turbulent upper-level pattern Tuesday morning into the afternoon
hours, multiple vorticity maxima will eject out across the region,
while the strongest vorticity remains within the strong trough along
the West Coast. Fairly strong southerly 700mb flow will develop by
Tuesday afternoon, pulling in additional moisture from the moisture
rich regions of Texas and Oklahoma, with additional moisture from
the broad southwesterly flow west of the Laramie Range. 700mb warm
air advection will likely be at its peak on Tuesday afternoon with
the very strong southerly flow across the region at that level.
Therefore, stronger lift is anticipated across the region. With
surface flow turning south-southeasterly Tuesday afternoon, the
added easterly component will lead to some additional lift due to
upslope flow along the eastern side of the Laramie Range and along
the Cheyenne Ridge. Despite this, medium range models still suggest
only about 200 to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE with pockets of 700 J/kg
according to the NAM. So while strong forcing will be ongoing, the
instability remains fairly low. Strong storms could be possible
Tuesday afternoon, but gusty winds look to be the primary threat due
to the Inverted-V forecast sounds, if a storm can get going.
Isolated to scattered showers will also be possible, though wider
coverage is expected west of the Laramie Range due to this region
being closer to the upper-level support provided by the incoming
trough. Wednesday looks to be the better day for strong
thunderstorms. Tuesday will also be warm once again, with highs in
the mid-70s to low-90s once more.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

The upper-level low dropping south will continue its progression
Wednesday, but starts to become cutoff from the flow mid-day
Wednesday. The low looks to be cutoff over Nevada, with strong
southerly flow across the CWA Wednesday through the rest of the
week. This low will remain cutoff and spinning over Nevada until
Friday when it gets absorbed back into the flow by the next incoming
strong trough. However, with this cutoff low progged to spin over
Nevada for several days, a very wet pattern is anticipated Wednesday
onwards, due to continued synoptic ascent and support downstream of
the churning upper-level low. This especially true with 700mb and
surface flow remaining strongly southerly through Friday when a weak
front tries to push through. With 700mb and surface flow remaining
southerly, warm, moist air will continue to advect into the region
leading to a warm week ahead that might event feel a touch muggy!
With warm, moist air and synoptic ascent nearby, daily afternoon
showers and storms will be possible, with Wednesday looking more
favorable for stronger storms across the region. This cutoff low
pattern looks to come to an end for next weekend, as cooler, more
seasonable air starts to the return to the region ahead of the upper-
level trough pushing through.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Mostly clear skies early this morning with winds mostly light
across southeast Wyoming and stronger across western Nebraska.
Cloud coverage will slowly increase through the late morning
hours and into the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop around noon and continue
through much of the afternoon and evening. Confidence is low on
any of these showers and storms directly impacting terminals so
included PROB30 groups for the time periods with the best
chances to see thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic winds will be
possible in and around any shower or thunderstorm that develops
this afternoon. Gusty winds this afternoon will calm down into
the evening hours, leading to light and variable winds once
again tonight.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM