Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

703
FXUS65 KCYS 071150
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
550 AM MDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very windy this morning for the wind prone areas of southeast
  Wyoming, elevated to high winds possible.

- Scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms Thursday
  afternoon and evening will have the potential to produce small
  hail and gusty and erratic winds. Another chance of
  thunderstorms possible Saturday.

- Much warmer and drier early next week as a strong ridge aloft
  drifts east over the Front Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Current IR Satellite loop shows mostly clear skies across most
of the region with increasing high clouds moving southward ahead
of the next upper level vort max/disturbance moving southeast
out of western Canada. This feature will be our next forecast
concern today. For this morning, surface observations show windy
to very windy conditions for mainly our wind prone areas as the
low level pressure gradient increases ahead of the disturbance
moving south out of Canada. So far, winds have been gusting
below 55 MPH with most gusts between 45 to 50 MPH. May need to
issue another Special Weather Statement shortly, but going to
hold off on any late minute High Wind Warnings since winds have
been very briefly gusting around 55 MPH at times. Breezy west to
northwest winds are expected elsewhere, especially late this
morning and this afternoon, with gusts up to 40 MPH possible
(possibly higher near thunderstorms). This wind will actually
result in warmer temperatures than one would expect with a
partial surface snowpack due to warming downslope winds.

For today, all models agree on the upper level disturbance
digging south into eastern Wyoming and ejecting eastward across
western Nebraska this afternoon. Most ensemble guidance and
sounding data show CAPE values between 200 to 600 j/kg over a
bulk of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska with decent mid
to upper level lift forcing associated with the vort max and
250mb jet. Activity may get going as early as noon today, and
could linger well into tonight. Kept POP between 30 to 50
percent across much of the area for scattered rain showers and
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Small hail and brief
heavy rainfall/gusty winds possible with these thunderstorms
this afternoon and this evening. Cloudy skies will likely linger
through tonight with little chance for fog, even in areas which
get 0.15 to 0.25 inches of rainfall.

Northwest flow aloft will continue on Friday behind the upper
level disturbance as it digs southeast into the central plains.
A few models show some rain shower activity developing along the
Laramie Range and pushing southeast across the high plains
during the afternoon. Most model guidance keeps things dry with
model soundings showing an elevated temperature inversion/CAP
around 600mb with a pretty dry boundary layer. Kept POP at or
below 10 percent for now with the HRRR showing dry conditions
and no precipitation. Near seasonable temperatures are forecast
for Friday with highs in the 60s to low 70s, which is within 5
degrees of the average high for the day during this time of the
year.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Warm days are ahead as high pressure ridging looks to take over
for the majority of the long term forecast period, though we do
start unsettled and near average before the heat takes hold.
Friday evening should be mostly uneventful under a transient
ridge with near seasonable low temperatures. Moving into
Saturday however, a quick moving shortwave should bring a shot
at showers and thunderstorms alongside gusty winds thanks to the
enhanced pressure gradient. While the best precipitation
chances will be for our northern zones, many of these locations
didn`t receive our recent snowfall and therefore the
precipitation will be beneficial for them. In house guidance is
highlighting the potential for wind highlights as probabilities
are nearing 40% for the Arlington area, and 700mb winds around
50 knots are present. If nothing else, we should see a few
storms and some locally gusty winds, but no strong agreement
that more significant conditions are expected.

Thereafter, the main story will be strong ridging that will
overtake the majority of the Western US. We`ll see mostly dry
conditions and a steady warming trend, with temperatures around
15 to 20 degrees above normal by early next week and continuing
into the middle of the week, with parts of the NE Panhandle
even flirting with 90 degrees. While ensembles do show this
feature beginning to flatten out moving into the middle of next
week, the strongest winds and pressure gradients would still lie
to our north and east, keeping us under warm westerly flow with
only weak upslope flow possibly promoting any new precipitation,
but even this would be unlikely with how dry the lower levels
will be. Most likely outcome currently would be isolated virga
which could bring locally breezy winds, but otherwise if you
didn`t enjoy our brief return to winter this week, warm and dry
weather are incoming by next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Northwest flow aloft will continue today as an upper level
disturbance moves southeast across the area today and tonight.
Breezy conditions are expected, especially across southeast Wyoming,
with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms later this
afternoon through late this evening. Some of this activity by linger
past 06z Friday.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail with breezy west
to northwest winds. A few hours of LLWS expected at KLAR early this
morning before boundary layer mixing occurs. Otherwise, added PROB30
groups for a mention of thunderstorms this evening for most
terminals. Timing is very uncertain, with showers and thunderstorms
possible as early as noon (18z) today and as late as 06z to 09z
Friday. Current time range in the TAF is the most likely window, but
this may change over the next several hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...TJT