Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

230
FXUS65 KCYS 231120
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
520 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered strong to severe afternoon thunderstorms are
  expected today. All severe hazards are possible.

- Thunderstorm chances continue on Wednesday and Thursday with
  greater coverage in storms that will increase the potential
  for localized flooding concerns, particularly over recent burn
  scars.

- Warming temperatures, falling humidity, and increasing winds
  will increase fire weather concerns over this upcoming
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Rinse and repeat, we will have another day of strong to severe
storms across the CWA southeast of a line from Casper to Rawlins.
This is where storms will initiate and drift off to the east,
sometime between 1-3PM. This go around, the Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) has Cheyenne smack dab in the middle of an enhanced risk (3
out of 5), with all modes possible. Lets cut to the chase, with an
abundance of low-level moisture firmly in place and ample
instability (MLCAPE values may approach 3000 J/kg later this
afternoon), this will set the stage for widely scattered strong
to severe thunderstorms. This coupled with strong vertical wind
shear, supercells are likely that will bring all modes of
hazards. Expect large hail (up to 4"), strong winds (up to
75mph), and discrete supercells producing tornadoes. In
addition, there is the threat of landspouts and potential flash
flooding. Hi-res models are in good agreement showing fairly
widespread activity across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle. But first, with all the moisture yesterday and
overnight, patchy fog and low clouds are once again a
possibility later this morning, with it eroding by noon as model
solutions depict. Taking a brief look at temperatures, highs
today will be slightly cooler with highs only topping out in the
mid 70s while lows tonight (Tuesday night) dip into the low
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Wednesday...West northwest flow aloft continues, while a shortwave
trough aloft moves over eastern Wyoming near peak heating. A decent
low level convergence boundary will stretch across southeast Wyoming
in the afternoon, with an 850 and 700 mb theta-e ridge axis
extending from Casper to Cheyenne. Expecting scattered afternoon and
evening thunderstorms to initiate in the convergence boundary, and
with CAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/kg and bulk shear values near 45 knots,
we should see isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
develop from afternoon through early evening, and concur with the
Storm Prediction Center outlook of marginal to slight risk over our
eastern half of counties.

Thursday...Westerly flow aloft continues, and with surface low
pressure developing over south central Wyoming producing a
convergence axis from Douglas to Laramie, and plenty of low and mid
level moisture, and 850/700 mb theta-e ridge axis from Casper to
Cheyenne, along with CAPE of 1000 to 1800 J/kg and bulk shear near
50 knots, we anticipate some storms to become severe, with large
hail and damaging winds as the primary threats east of I-25, with
some locally heavy rainers due to flow aloft.

Friday...Low amplitude ridging develops over our forecast area, with
some drier air noted advecting in. However, still expect isolated to
widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms to form along a
low level convergence axis along the I-25 corridor. A few strong and
possibly severe storms may occur.

Saturday...The flow aloft turns southwest and increases in speed,
with considerably drier air moving across our counties, producing a
dry day with a warming trend as 700 mb temperatures spike near 19
Celsius.

Sunday and Monday...A broad trough aloft develops across the
northern and central Rockies, with dry southwest flow aloft, leading
to only isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms in the afternoons
and evening. Slightly cooler compared to Saturday in the wake of a
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Thunderstorms are expected to return around 21Z and impact every
terminal except KAIA and KCDR, lowest confidence and the mention of
TS was kept out at this forecast issuance. The threat decreases late
in the forecast period. Expect gusty and erratic winds in and around
TS activity, along with sizable hail. Also, with the added moisture,
late in the period, low CIGs and FG and/or BR may make a return at
most sites.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RZ