Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

969
FXUS65 KCYS 102156
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
256 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Storm Warning now in effect for the Sierra-Madre and
  Snowy Ranges beginning early Wednesday morning and continuing
  through Thursday morning.

- Progressive pattern expected through the week with better
  chances of precipitation, but temperatures remaining above
  normal through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/...
Issued at 255 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

We`ve seen a few flakes of snow here at the office this
afternoon, alongside echoes spreading as far east as the
southern Nebraska Panhandle. Guidance has also become more
aggressive on overall precipitation, with probabilities on the
rise for heavy snowfall during the mid-week timeframe. While forcing
will be mostly weak behind this first system and with the
second shortwave rounding the ridge Wednesday into Thursday,
upslope flow should assist in promoting moderate to heavy
accumulations into the mountains, alongside seasonably moist
PWAT values. Probabilities of 12+ inches over 48 hours in the
NBM have increased to over 70%, particularly for the Sierra-
Madre range, with similar increases in high resolution guidance
as well. With latest QPF guidance combined with these
probabilities showing upwards of 12-16 inches for both ranges
and the peaks exceeding 20 inches, the Winter Weather Advisory
was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, now valid beginning 12Z
tomorrow and continuing through 18Z on Thursday. In the
meantime, intermittent light to moderate snow will be possible,
but tomorrow morning is when heaviest accumulations are expected
to begin.

An increase in winds with this quick passing system tomorrow
could also bring some breeziness on Wednesday into Thursday, but
models are not favoring high winds at this time. In house
guidance only hits a maximum probability at Arlington of around
20%, with even lower chances elsewhere. While some gap flow may
briefly agitate conditions enough to promote a rogue wind gust
in excess of 50+ mph at Arlington, at this time high wind
highlights are not needed. Otherwise the overall pattern will
be dominated by a transient longwave ridge that will hold
through Thursday, with broad and weak troughing then overtaking
into Friday morning with flow becoming disrupted and weak for
the day. While precipitation chances will persist through
overnight into Friday, they should weaken and begin to taper off
by Thursday evening, hence the Winter Storm Warning expiring on
Thursday morning. Finally temperatures will remain elevated
thanks to the ridging and southwesterly flow through Thursday,
with highs the next two days 10-15 degrees above normal in the
50`s to near 60 east of I-25, and widespread 40`s for our
western zones, while overnight lows will dip around or just
under freezing each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

The more active period of weather is expected to taper off Friday
and come to an end overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. The
upper-level trough progged to be just west of the Four Corners
Region Friday morning will continue its eastward progression
throughout the day and into the overnight hours. Upper-level ridging
will start to build into the area Saturday morning as the closed low
associated with the upper-level trough progresses eastward into New
Mexico. Mostly benign 700mb flow is expected Friday through the
weekend with no hints at possible elevated winds Friday and
Saturday. Looking further down at the surface, precipitation chances
will linger into the day Friday after the widespread precipitation
chance around mid-week. As the trough continues to push through the
region, cloud cover will continue to improve with mostly clear skies
expected to return for Saturday. Additionally, temperatures will
warm once more as 700mb temperatures return to the -2 to 0C range
Friday and Saturday. Expect highs in the 40s and 50s both day, with
dry conditions returning for Saturday.

Dry conditions will continue throughout the day Sunday as the upper-
level ridge strengthens and pushes directly overhead of the CWA. A
weal 700mb shortwave will attempt to develop south of the CWA,
effectively increasing high gradients across the region. This
combined with a diffuse surface low pushing northwest to southeast
across the northeastern portion of the CWA will lead to increasing
wind for Sunday. High winds are not anticipated at this time as in-
house random forest guidance remains below about 10% chance for high
winds during the day. However, elevated surface pressure gradients
and 700mb height gradients will combine to help increase surface
winds throughout the day, especially west of the Laramie Range, with
some more elevated winds spread east of the Laramie Range. Downward
omega fields are fairly weak during the day and overnight hours
Sunday and do not increase until early Monday morning. The
approximately 40kt jet at 700mb wil still allow gusty winds
throughout the day Sunday. With dry conditions leading up to this,
fire weather concerns will be increasing for Sunday as afternoon
minimum relative humidity values drop into the 15-20% range east of
the Laramie Range. Winds at this time look fairly borderline for any
kind of fire headline. Additionally, if more snow falls in the lower
elevations, fire weather concerns will decrease for Sunday given
more moisture in the region. For now, will keep an eye on Sunday as
it looks to be the next best chance for significant weather and/or
fire weather concerns.

The remainder of the long term forecast period looks a touch more
promising for more precipitation chances for early next week. An
upper-level trough is progged to swing into the West Coast Monday
with a strong jet ejecting out ahead of the trough axis. Since this
trough originated over the Pacific Ocean, the southwesterly flow
associated with it should bring additional moisture into the region,
diminishing fire weather concerns as precipitation chances begin to
increase, but only for locations west of the Laramie Range. Right
now, the Laramie Range may act to prevent additional moisture from
reaching eastern portions of the CWA, leading to much drier
conditons with elevated winds from the associated 700mb low. This
will need to be monitored over the next several days as another
round of long duration Red Flag Warnings may be needed to start next
week.&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1005 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions expected for the majority of the 18Z TAF period.
Isolated to scattered snow showers are expected to move across
the Wyoming terminals this afternoon and evening. Conditions may
deteriorate to MVFR conditions with the heaviest showers
resulting in near-IFR conditions. Conditions will continue to
improve after snow showers move out of the area, with light
winds and cloudy skies expected overnight.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 AM MST Thursday
     for WYZ112-114.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM