Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

527
FXUS65 KCYS 140551
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1050 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds will continue in the wind prone areas across
  southeast Wyoming this afternoon with a few gusts to around
  60 mph expected.

- A weak cold front will pass through this evening, bringing
  scattered rain and snow showers into early Wednesday morning.

- Elevated fire weather concerns are possible several days this
  week, including the weekend, due to windy conditions, mild
  temperatures, and low humidity.

- Widespread strong winds are possible across the region
  Thursday through Saturday, with the best chance on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 123 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

Some of the things we are monitoring for the remainder of today,
elevated fire weather concerns across far southeastern Wyoming
and southern portions of the Nebraska Panhandle along with
increasing precipitation chances. A stout upper level trough
will dive south out of Canada into the the Great Lakes region
while a potent shortwave rides along the western flank south
into the High Plains. To the west, ridging holds firm across the
West Coast and our CWA is sandwiched between the two
aforementioned features. As a result, dry north-northwesterly
flow aloft will filter into the region. This flow coupled with a
surface cold front will promote breezy conditions, generally
northwest winds 15-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph, locally
higher. These winds along with min RH values dropping to near
20%, fuels across the region are abnormally dry and abundant,
are the the perfect ingredients for elevated fire weather
concerns this afternoon. You may be wondering where is the
greatest threat, well, an area confined by our CWA from Cheyenne
east and Scottsbluff south. The window of opportunity is
closing fast though, so expect fire weather conditions over the
next few hours before enough moisture filters in and RH values
bump up to above 40%.

Lets shift our focus to this afternoon/evening, with the
aforementioned shortwave being the upper level support and a
cold front at the surface, precipitation chances will increase
through the afternoon hours. Spreading across the CWA from the
northeast to the southwest. Expect snow at higher elevations
across the Laramie and Snowy Ranges, around 5/6K feet and above,
with very modest amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range. Elsewhere,
primarily rain and possibly mixing with snow as we head into the
nighttime hours, little to no accumulations expected. This is
all quick hitting, because by Wednesday, dryer air returns.

After the gusty winds that have been plaguing are wind prones
since the morning hours end this evening, minimal chances for
additional strong winds on Wednesday. This is due to weak
forcing aloft and at the surface that will not support another
strong or high wind event. Now lets take a look at temperatures,
with 700mb temperatures near +2C, surface temperatures will
soar above average as highs today top out in the 40s west of
I-25 and mid 50s to low 60s east of the corridor, warmest across
the Nebraska Panhandle. More of the same for highs on
Wednesday, albeit slightly cooler. Lows, not all that low or
cold for this time of year, will dip into the 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

Over the long term forecast the ridge axis wobbles further west
as a upper level low drops into the eastern Northern Plains/
Western Great lakes area. THis will send a trough to pass
through Nebraska tightening our pressure gradient Thursday into
Friday. The 500mb jetstream is expected to drop further south
with this trough to give us upper level support for enhanced
surface winds. The surface winds are expected to be rather gusty
as the 700mb jets ramps up between 70 to 80kts Thursday night
into Friday morning. The LREF paints a swath of 30 to 40 percent
probability to exceed 75kts at the 700mb level across the
Panhandle. When computing the probs for exceeding 80kts that
swath drops down to 10 to 20 percent. Looking at the global
models omega fields, there is some moderate to strong subsidence
covering the majority of the area east of I-25 in Southeast
Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle. Given the level of
certainty in high winds. The winds were increased with a blend
of NBM90 and GFS20. This should more accurate capture the areas
of potential high wind. Friday morning looks to be the timing of
the strongest winds with gusts reaching up to 65 to 75 mph in
the Panhandle depending on the where the 80kt jetstreak sets up.
NAEFS also continues to show PWAT values in the 10th
Climatological percentile across the far eastern edge of
Southeast Wyoming and most of the Nebraska Panhandle indicating
a very dry airmass. RH values look to drop into the teens by
Friday afternoon with dewpoints in the negatives. Given the low
RH and the potential for borderline Hurricane force winds,
elevated fire weather to red flag conditions may be present
Friday afternoon. However, behind the faster winds lies an
arctic airmass that drops 700mb temperatures from 4C to -4C
Thursday night into Friday. This drop in 700mb temperatures will
be responsible for dropping the high temperatures into the 30`s
on Friday. 700mb temperatures do gradually warm back up into
the 3 to 4C range Sunday into Monday as the ridge axis wobbles
back eastward. However, the region will be lacking any
significant moisture through the long term. Long range ensembles
show dry conditions lasting potentially until the 21st of
January.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

Surface cold front is forecast to continuing moving south and west
into Colorado and central Wyoming. Bands of light rain and snow will
push south, mainly impacting southeast Wyoming through 14z early
Wednesday morning, with occasional sprinkles or light rain for
western Nebraska.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: Higher confidence with the southeast Wyoming
terminals tonight through early Wednesday morning. High res models
continue to back off on IFR conditions at KLAR as the precipitation
band remains just east of the Laramie Valley. KCYS is already
experiencing IFR CIGS, so continued this trend through at least 12z.
Off/on rain/snow mix is expected, especially between 07z and 12z
where IFR VIS may linger into sunrise. Conditions are expected to
improve by 15z with VFR and breezy conditions for the rest of the
day.

For western Nebraska, most of the rainfall has ended for the night,
so expect VFR conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours with a
brief sprinkles at times. Some low clouds and MVFR CIGS may sneak
into KCDR between 08z and 14z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TJT