Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

462
FXUS65 KCYS 020541
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1041 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off high winds continue for the wind prone areas, with
  the next round on track for Thursday night into Friday.

- Accumulating snow is expected in the Snowy and Sierra Madre
  Ranges through Friday. Winter Weather Advisories are in
  effect.

- Above average temperatures, breezy conditions and a chance of
  precipitation primarily in the mountains expected through
  early next week, with a pattern change possible late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

Mild temperatures continue across the area today with the broad
ridge remaining stuck over the western United States. Meanwhile, an
expansive closed low is undercutting the ridge aloft, spreading
moisture and cloud cover across most of the region. The upper level
low center is still well to our west in central California, but an
elongated band of vorticity aloft stretches out ahead of it, all the
way from the Pacific northwest down to western Texas. Despite mostly
cloudy skies over the area, temperatures are still surging to values
well above average for the first of January, with the early part of
2026 picking up just how 2025 ended. Ample moisture advection
continues out of the southwest, with the column beginning to
approach saturation in our western zones. Orographic lift will
increase snowfall in the higher elevations through this evening. The
vort-max aloft will also provide some overrunning isentropic lift
which will fill in elevated shower activity over valleys and the
High Plains. It will take some time to saturate the lower
atmosphere, but expect improved low level moisture to migrate slowly
eastward through the evening. Rawlins has already seen humidity
improve to 75% as improved moisture mixes into the boundary layer.
While we can expect to see some radar echoes developing over the
next few hours over the High Plains, anything reaching the ground is
more in question. For example, Cheyenne is currently sitting at a
dewpoint of 11F, supporting an RH of 15%. It will take quite a bit
of time to saturate this very dry boundary with moisture injected
from aloft, but expect to see dewpoints back into the 30s during the
evening hours. Once low-level moisture improves after dark, we
should see some light rain/snow showers spread into the valley and
plains portions of the area, but impacts will be limited outside of
the mountains.

For the higher elevations, we have precipitable water exceeding the
99th percentile with southwest to westerly flow aloft. The extremely
warm temperatures are making it a little easier to hit these
impressive PW values, but IVT still remains around the 90th
percentile of climatology. This should promote light to moderate
snowfall through the night and into the daytime on Friday. As
discussed previously, we are pretty close to needing to upgrade the
Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning, but decided to
hold off again with this forecast package. We still may see above
12" in portions of our mountain zones, but this should be confined
to the higher peaks, generally above 9 kft in the Sierra Madre Range
and above 10 kft in the Snowy Range. In addition, the disorganized
nature of this system reduces confidence somewhat. GOES water vapor
imagery shows a significant dry slot currently moving across central
Utah that would be on track to arrive in our mountain zones in about
5-6 hours or so. This may reduce snowfall rates or even shut off
snow entirely from about mid evening through early Friday morning,
although most hi-res models show snowfall continuing unabated
through this period. This kept confidence too low to upgrade on this
shift, but if the dry-slot or potential lull fails to materialize by
about 8PM or so, an upgrade may still be needed for the Sierra Madre
range. Regardless, expect snow to continue for the higher elevations
on and off through the day Friday and taper off during the afternoon
or evening hours.

The other primary concern in the near term will be the continued on
and off marginal high wind threat for our wind prone areas.
Southwest flow aloft this evening will support lee cyclogenesis in
the form of an elongated surface trough stretching nearly the entire
extend of the Rockies from Alberta into northeast New Mexico. As the
pressure gradient tightens, we will see the wind threat increasing
once again. Craig to Casper height gradients are marginal but
sufficiently supportive of high winds, reaching 55 to 60 meters late
this evening into Friday. 700-mb winds also creep up, with LREF mean
values exceeding 50 knots Friday morning. This increased gradient
will be associated with a secondary upper level shortwave currently
visible as a kink on the upper level height contours moving across
Idaho just behind the elongated band of vorticity. Confidence is
sufficient for reaching high wind criteria in the I-80 wind prone
areas, with probabilities around 70%. For I-25, there is a bit more
uncertainty. During the period of the best gradients overnight and
early Friday morning, most models show a pretty consistent signal
for ascent along most of I-25 in Platte and Laramie Counties with
the surface trough west of the highway. However, once the upper
level shortwave trough axis passes over the area around sunrise
Friday, it should pull the surface trough to the southeast as a low
pressure center wraps up. This will draw winds eastward into the
High Plains Friday morning, but we will be past the best forcing
aloft at this time, so it may be difficult to reach high wind
criteria. As a result, probabilities are around 30% for the wind
prone areas of I-25. Confidence was too low for a Warning, but this
should still warrant some messaging, so decided to opt for a High
Wind Watch.

For the rest of the area, expect this low passing through to knock
down temperatures by several degrees. We will be generally 5-10F
cooler than today over the High Plains with breezy conditions across
the area. In addition, the passage of the shortwave will nudge the
stalled arctic frontal boundary currently well to our northeast
slightly to the southwest. This may sneak into the Chadron area on
Friday, which could keep highs considerably cooler than the rest of
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

A quick moving system from off of California will continue to
disrupt the upper level ridge pattern into the the weekend, helping
to bring a bit more breeziness and mountain precipitation to the
region.

Models show the upper level ridge to be over the region with the
axis just to the west of the CWA. A disturbance will make its way
around the ridge Sunday bringing some mountain precipitation and
windy conditions. Mostly dry conditions will persist through the
long term with in-house calculations showing temperatures to be well
above seasonal average by between 15 to nearly 25 degrees decreasing
to 10-15 degrees above average by the end of the period.
Temperatures Saturday through Monday for everywhere east of the
Laramie Range will be in the mid to upper 50s with some isolated
locations seeing low 60s (70-90% confidence).

Models show a disturbance will shift the ridge to a more around the
pattern Sunday bringing heightened winds and mountain snow back
Sunday afternoon. A relatively strong 700 mb jet with winds between
65-75 kts will align with the North Laramie Range with a decent
downsloping signal reaching portions of the lower elevations off the
range. In-house wind probabilities have Bordeaux seeing 60-65%
probabilities of seeing gusts over 58 mph. There is also a weaker
700 mb jet aligning with the Snowy Range with in-house wind
probabilities showing Arlington seeing gusts to over 58 mph as well
with 60% probabilities. As for the precipitation expected Sunday
afternoon through Monday morning is going to be between 7500-8000
feet with accumulations beginning at 0.2-0.5, 8000 ft an above 1-3
inches with 40-70% probabilities.

Not much has changed from the previous forecast beginning Monday.
Models show the back end of the upper level ridge to be breaking
down as an upper level low digs in from the PacNW. South-west flow
aloft will allow for some moisture advection to infiltrate the
western portion of the CWA bringing in some mountain snow. In-house
calculations show the ridgetops of the Sierra Madre Range has 60-80%
probability of seeing 4-6 inches of snow accumulating between Monday
and Tuesday. The Snow Range has 40-50% probabilities of seeing 1-2
inches. Areas between 7000-8000 feet will see between 0.2-0.8 inches
while elsewhere will remain dry. Winds associated with this
disturbance will also increase Monday into Tuesday with the
ridgetops seeing gusts of 35-34 mph (50-70%) while the lower
elevations will see 25-30 mph gusts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

KRWL looks to likely stay MVFR through the morning unless that
clear spot to the southwest moves Northeast faster. There is a
current hole in the clouds near KLAR but expecting to stay VFR
for the rest of the TAF period. The line of heavier showers
seem to have stalled out to the southwest of KBFF so its
uncertain if any showers will make it to KAIA or KCDR. After 18z
the sky will start to clear out with SCT to FEW clouds by 03z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from 2 AM MST Friday through Friday evening
     for WYZ106-117.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for WYZ110.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Friday for WYZ112-114.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for WYZ116.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...MM