Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

409
FXUS65 KCYS 021730
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1030 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and high elevation snow showers continue through Tuesday
  morning.

- Snow levels will drop to around 6500 to 7000 ft during the day
  Monday, then quickly to between 4500 to 6000 ft Monday
  evening.

- Winter Weather Advisories remain in place for the mountains
  and higher elevations of the I-80 corridor, with wet
  accumulating snow expected.

- Snow accumulation is possible along the Pine Ridge and the
  north side of the Cheyenne Ridge, but confidence is lower
  there.

- Widespread northwest winds gusting 45 to 55 mph are expected
  along and east of the Laramie Range Monday and Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 340 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

TODAY: A dynamic day is expected across the area today as a
sprawling, messy storm system moves through. We are transitioning to
the wrap-around phase of this event this morning. GOES water vapor
channel satellite imagery shows the deepest moisture now
pushing largely to our northeast, with a dry slot pushing in
from the south over the High Plains. Radar shows scattered
shower activity ongoing, which is expected to continue for the
next several hours. The dry slot is creeping into the I-80
corridor, but should struggle to get much further north.
Meanwhile, the next round of showers is taking shape across
central Wyoming this morning, and this is expected to fill in to
the south and east over the course of the morning as the
surface cold front pushes in. This boundary has likely already
pushed through Casper, and should be through Douglas shortly.
Further south and east, expect winds to turn westerly and then
rapidly strengthen. Most of the High Plains should be solidly
within the gusty northwest winds by 7AM or so. The temperature
drop is not particularly pronounced, but slow cold air advection
behind the front is still expected, which will push snow levels
downward. Along and west of the Laramie range, we should see
snow mixing in with the rain showers during the morning hours,
but temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in the valleys and the
timing during the day will make accumulation difficult below
about 7500 ft in elevation. Overall, we are still on track for
6+ inches above 9000 ft or so, and a few inches along the higher
elevations of I-80 (Arlington/Elk Mountain and the summit east
of Laramie). Areas around Rawlins, Saratoga, and Laramie could
see an inch or so this morning if a heavier band develops,
mainly on grassy/elevated surfaces. East of the Laramie range,
expect on and off shower activity along the US-20 corridor from
Douglas to Chadron for much of the day, but more limited
scattered showers further south. With winds aloft now expected
to remain a tad west of north for much of the daytime hours,
shower coverage looks to end up a little lower compared to
prior forecasts.

The main weather impact over the High Plains today will be the
strong, gusty northwest winds. We are still on track for widespread
gusts of 45 to 55 mph along and east of the Laramie Range. Winds are
expected to peak this afternoon and evening. The possibility for a
few 60+ mph remains today, but most areas still have a high wind
probability of about 30%, too low for any wind headlines. If we see
these gusts, the most likely areas (closer to 40-50%) are along I-25
between Wheatland and Glendo, the Pine Ridge around Harrison and
south of Chadron, and areas right along the CO border in Laramie,
Kimball, or Cheyenne counties.

TONIGHT: Heading into the evening, the secondary upper level low
currently located near the Four Corners will start to have a more
significant influence. This should elongate the moisture band as the
primary low continues off to the northeast. Most models still show
the winds in the 700 to 500-mb layer becoming more due north if not
every so slightly northeast after about 5PM this evening, which will
actually be a slightly more favorable forcing for ascent. Thus,
expect shower activity to keep going over the High Plains even as
the primary system moves further away. With strong north-northwest
winds continuing, the smaller terrain features of the High Plains
will make themselves known during this period. The Pine Ridge and
the north side of the Cheyenne ridge should appear prominently in
radar imagery this evening, while areas south of the ridge crests
will be drier. Snow levels will also continue to drop this evening,
aided by the loss of daytime heating. These should be as low as 4500
to 5000 ft where precipitation rates are heavier, and around 6000 ft
where rates are lighter. One area of particular concern is southern
Niobrara county around Lusk. The most likely scenario at this time
is around 1" of snow this evening and overnight, but there is a
pretty high ceiling on the potential here. Probabilities for 3" or
more around 40% in Lusk/Manville, and around 20% for 6" or more. We
will wait for the next round of high-resolution model guidance, but
winter weather headlines may be needed if trends hold.

The other area for light snow accumulation tonight will be the
north side of the Cheyenne ridge, including northern Laramie
County into Banner county (and the edges of adjacent counties).
The most likely scenario is around a dusting to an inch or two
here. Rates should be lighter on this ridge due to slightly
weaker forcing. There is some uncertainty in the western extend
of the overnight precipitation potential, and we could see a
second round as far west as Laramie.

TUESDAY: Expect rain and snow showers along the east-west oriented
ridges to decrease in coverage Tuesday morning before coming to an
end by midday. Look for decreasing cloud cover and continued gusty
northwest winds for much of the day, but Tuesday`s winds look more
like mostly between 35 and 45 mph. Highs should be slightly below
seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

The rest of the week looks mostly uneventful after we finally say
farewell to this system by Wednesday. Ridging will try to build back
into the area, but the warming potential will be hampered by a few
moisture-starved closed lows moving across the western CONUS. As a
result, look for highs to remain generally close to seasonal
averages from midweek through the weekend. The first closed low
around Wednesday will bring a chance for a few rain / high elevation
snow showers, but most ensemble members send the tiny, compact
system and the narrow band of precipitation potential to our south.
The next system looks to pass to our north over the weekend. The
chance for precipitation is low with this one, but it may bring a
surge in gusty winds across the area Saturday and Sunday. Behind
this system, we should see cleaner ridging take over across the
western CONUS. After a slightly cooler day Saturday, look for
temperatures to trend above seasonal averages Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1022 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

A slowly moving shortwave trough aloft and associated cold front
will move eastward across the terminals today, then to the east
of the area tonight and Tuesday.

Wyoming TAFS...High confidence in MVFR and occasional IFR
continuing in rain and snow showers and fog into the early
evening hours, then VFR conditions develop. Surface pressure
gradients will support wind gusts to 35 knots into the evening
hours, with gusts in excess of 25 knots at Cheyenne late tonight
and Tuesday morning.

Nebraska TAFS...High confidence in MVFR and occasional IFR in
rain and fog through this evening, then VFR developing Tuesday
morning. Sufficient surface pressure gradients will support
wind gusts to 45 knots into early this evening, with gusts up to
35 knots thereafter.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
     WYZ103-112-114-116.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     WYZ110.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...RUBIN