Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

294
FXUS65 KCYS 121731
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1031 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions are expected to
  continue through the end of the week.

- Chances of precipitation increase over the weekend for the
  mountains, but remain low for the plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Short Range models remain in good agreement showing benign
weather continuing through late Friday across southeast Wyoming
and western Nebraska. Clear skies early this morning will
continue through Thursday afternoon with some high cloudiness at
times. Otherwise, light west to northwest winds are expected
with light and variable winds across most of western Nebraska.

Models show the upper level ridge axis, currently over the four
corners region, moving overhead late tonight and early Friday. The
only minor concern will be the potential for fog across far eastern
Wyoming and western Nebraska early Friday morning as surface
winds shift into the south and southeast with decent return flow
off the Great Plains. Not totally confident due to the
relatively weak surface flow, but enough confidence to justify
patchy fog wording across portions of the western Nebraska
Panhandle and east central Wyoming. Afternoon temperatures will
remain above average today and Friday with highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s.

For Saturday, all models in good agreement showing the next
Pacific storm system moving across the Great Basin Region Friday
night and into the Front Range on Saturday. With a dominate
southern branch of the upper level jet, expect this system to
split and likely remain south of us into Saturday night. Some
precipitation can`t be ruled out for the I-80 corridor, but
chances are pretty low with maybe a few inches of snow for the
Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges. Temperatures will begin to lower
on Saturday with a cooler airmass working its way into the
region. High temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s expected
due to cloud cover and upslope south to southeast winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

This weekend will mark a transition period as a slightly more
progressive pattern takes place after another week of anomalously
warm and dry conditions. Saturday will start off much cooler than
the previous day, as a cold front is expected to push across SE
Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle during the morning hours. Not
only will this result in forecast highs anywhere from 10-15 degrees
cooler from the previous day, but northerly winds will increase as
an inverted ridge sets up east of the Continental Divide. The
increasing gradient flow as a result of a potent 1030 mb +
anticyclone located over the Canadian Prairies will drive strong
cold advection behind the front throughout the day, although no
widespread precipitation is expected due to the main large-scale
forcing being well to our south. While we certainly can`t rule out
some light snowfall especially within the Snowy and Sierra Madre
Mountains, 50th percentile ECMWF ensemble QPF for SE Wyoming is
currently sitting below 0.05" and has trended downward over the last
couple of runs. This seems reasonable given that the primary
shortwave trough and associated DCVA will be focused more over
Southern Colorado.

GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble guidance are all in fairly good
agreement that our region will be located in a region of upper-level
diffluence on Sunday, downstream of an amplified trough located off
the West Coast. This will place SE Wyoming and W Nebraska in a SW
flow regime, with current LREF guidance suggesting PWAT values will
situate as high as the 85th-95th percentile (0.4-0.5") relative to
climatology. While this sounds great for us in desperate need of
beneficial precipitation, mid and upper-level height rises
associated with a building shortwave ridge, plus the lack of any
forcing mechanism unfortunately point to mostly dry conditions. This
is similar to much of what we have seen this fall given an active
monsoonal pattern, yet we haven`t been able to translate much of
this moisture down to the surface as precipitation. Temperatures
look to be at or slightly above average for this time of year,
mainly in the low to mid 50s east of the Laramie Range, with
slightly cooler to the west.

What once looked slightly more active and exciting has now started
to look, well...dry and boring, as we move into the beginning of
next week. The downstream ridge remains quasi-stationary over the
Great Plains, whereas the upstream troughing begins to dig south and
east towards Southern California. This will continue to SW surge of
monsoonal moisture, which will unfortunately be confined primarily
to the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. As a result, SE
Wyoming and W Nebraska will remain mostly dry and seasonably mild,
with high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday 5 to 10 degrees
above average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1025 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Northwest flow aloft will continue, with a ridge aloft slowly
moving eastward across the forecast area by midday Friday.

High confidence that VFR will continue, with mostly clear skies.
There is a possibility for some low clouds and fog at Chadron
and Alliance late tonight through early Friday morning, but
confidence is still rather minimal. so included FEW005 from 10Z
to 15Z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RUBIN