Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

957
FXUS65 KCYS 251150
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
550 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
  afternoon and evening will bring the potential for localized
  strong gusty winds Monday.

- Near record high temperatures possible Monday afternoon,
  mainly across western Nebraska with highs around 90 degrees.

- A stormier weather pattern will setup on Tuesday and continue
  through the remainder of the week with daily chances for PM
  showers and thunderstorms.

- Increasing potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is
  being monitored middle to late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

Not much going on this morning with skies becoming mostly clear
with relatively mild temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
Winds are mostly light and variable with some breezy conditions
observed in the wind prone areas, but gusts have remained below
40 MPH. Overall, another pleasant day setting up for this
Memorial Day with highs in the 70s for Carbon and Albany
counties, with readings in the 80s to around 90 for eastern
Wyoming (east of I-25) and western Nebraska. A few locations
will approach record high temperatures for the day over western
Nebraska. Similar weather compared to Sunday with models
showing another chance of widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the region. Activity will likely be more
rain shower activity than thunderstorms due to the lack of
forcing and the upper level ridge axis remaining over the area
for the bulk of the day. Convective environment is pretty
marginal as well with inverted V soundings for most areas.
However, models indicate a shift in the weather pattern
beginning later today as a deep upper level low digs south
across the Pacific NW later in the day; meanwhile, a broad upper
level disturbance will begin to lift northward near the Mexico
and USA border. These two systems will be the primary drivers in
our sensible weather for most of the week. Kept POP on the low
side (15% to 25% outside the mountains) into this evening. Low
level moisture will begin to increase this evening ahead of the
upper level disturbance to our south with increasing south to
southeast winds and low to midlevel moisture advection.

For Tuesday, all models show the upper level disturbance to our
south continuing to lift north as the upper level low along the
Pacific coastline digs south into the western Great Basin
region. Should see the beginning of higher coverage of showers
and thunderstorms for the week, but should be mainly confined
along and west of the I-25 corridor at first where the best
forcing will be located. High res models are showing several
bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms lifting north across
southeast Wyoming with little or no activity for most of western
Nebraska. Kept POP highest ahead of the upper level disturbance
and where NAEFS continues to show PWAT over the 90 to 95
percentile for this time of the year. Although the risk is low,
there is some concern of heavy rain over the mountain snowpack
from the last few late-season winter storms...especially on the
lee-side of the Sierra Madre and Snowy Range. Mountain snowpack
is on the low-side for this time of the year, so confidence is
limited. Otherwise, some of these thunderstorms may become
strong with hail and strong gusty winds the main threats. Not
expecting severe weather at this time due little or no shear
where CAPE>500 j/kg (east of I-25). There is quite a bit of
speed shear (30 to 45 knots) across Carbon and Albany counties,
but CAPE is not expected to be optimal with activity initiating
too quickly/too often in the late morning and afternoon hours.
Will continue to keep an eye on this in the event conditions
change. Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into the
late evening hours towards the Nebraska border Tuesday night.
Remaining warm on Tuesday, but noticeably cooler west of the
Laramie Range with highs in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

The upper-level low dropping south will continue its
progression Wednesday, but starts to become cutoff from the flow mid-
day Wednesday. The low looks to be cutoff over Nevada, with strong
southerly flow across the CWA Wednesday through the rest of the
week. This low will remain cutoff and spinning over Nevada until
Friday when it gets absorbed back into the flow by the next incoming
strong trough. However, with this cutoff low progged to spin over
Nevada for several days, a very wet pattern is anticipated Wednesday
onwards, due to continued synoptic ascent and support downstream of
the churning upper-level low. This especially true with 700mb and
surface flow remaining strongly southerly through Friday when a weak
front tries to push through. With 700mb and surface flow remaining
southerly, warm, moist air will continue to advect into the region
leading to a warm week ahead that might event feel a touch muggy!
With warm, moist air and synoptic ascent nearby, daily afternoon
showers and storms will be possible, with Wednesday looking more
favorable for stronger storms across the region. This cutoff low
pattern looks to come to an end for next weekend, as cooler, more
seasonable air starts to the return to the region ahead of the upper-
level trough pushing through. Thursday into Friday, The spinning
upper level low looks to eject a surface low to increase the amount
of forcing on Friday. Each of the global models puts the area of the
most unstable CAPE in a different area (which is to be expected) but
given those values range between 1500 to 2500 Joules, Friday could
be signaling a particularly explosive environment and with the right
dynamics and spin all hazards could be possible at the end of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

An upper level ridge axis will remain of the area before lifting
northeast later this afternoon and into tonight. Widely scattered
showers and isolated thunder possible this afternoon and into this
evening for most terminals.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours. Kept a mention of thunderstorms for the terminals with the
best potential to see some activity between 20z this afternoon and
02z Tuesday. With the pretty isolated nature of the tstorms, kept
PROB30 groups. Gusty winds up to 40 knots are possibly with any
showers or thunderstorms that do develop. Reduced VIS looks unlikely
at this time with a pretty dry boundary layer.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TJT