Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

100
FXUS65 KCYS 270532
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1135 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stormy weather pattern will setup Tuesday and Wednesday,
  continuing into the weekend with daily chances for
  afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms could be possible over the
  weekend into the beginning of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

An upper-level low settling into northern California/western Nevada
today will lead to a stormy pattern in the short term. The placement
of this low will put the CWA in southerly flow, allowing for access
to Gulf moisture. The increased moisture aloft will fuel storm
activity, with stubborn vorticity maxes over the area triggering
storm initiation. Radar has begun to light up this afternoon, mainly
over the high terrain west of the Laramie Range. Shower and storm
activity, for the most part, will remain along and west of the
Laramie Range as this is where the mid-level moisture is. Conditions
east of the Laramie Range remain on the dry side with gusty south
winds. Precipitation coverage will increase as the afternoon
progresses, with coverage peaking this evening. The threat of severe
storms this afternoon and evening will be low, with model soundings
showing lower CAPE values and weak shear. Showers and storms will
dissipate sometime after midnight as instability becomes negligible.

Wednesday will almost be a carbon copy of Tuesday, albeit a few
degrees cooler with slightly wider coverage of storms. While the
same areas of Carbon and Albany Counties can expect to see another
round of showers and storms, the plume of mid-level moisture will
begin to shift eastward. The strongest part of the plume will push
into the Interstate 80 corridor, sparking isolated convection
between Cheyenne and Sidney per Hi-Res guidance. The threat of
severe storms will once again remain low with little instability and
virtually no shear. A few lingering showers and storms will be
possible after sunset, however most of the activity will be done
before this.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Thursday we remain under the influence of a Rex block alongside a
rather deep shortwave trough and associated vort max lifting off to
the north and east over Western Nebraska. This will provide an
additional source for ascent combined with PWAT values around the
95th percentile thanks to SW flow aloft. LREF guidance has around
400 J/Kg MUCAPE along the I-25 corridor and Laramie Range into
Thursday afternoon, so the combination of moisture, lift, and
instability should allow for widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. 0-6 km shear is progged to range from 15-20 knots, so
severe weather is not expected. Due to the scattered nature and
coverage of these showers and storms, 50th percentile QPF on
Thursday remains below 0.1" for Southeastern Wyoming and Western
Nebraska. High temperatures look to be around seasonal values to
near 70 west of the Laramie Range, and mid-upper 70s over our
Nebraska counties.

On Friday, the pesky closed low that has remained to our south and
west throughout the week begins to get picked up by an 85-90 knot
subtropical jet lifting north and east over the Baja Peninsula,
gradually placing us in a region of stronger DCVA and therefore
forcing for ascent. Again, the forcing at this time looks to be
relatively weak, so no widespread rainfall is expected. Ensemble
members are in good agreement that surface dewpoints along the
Cheyenne Ridge will range from the upper 40s to the lower 50s under
SSE upslope flow resulting in MUCAPE around 800 J/Kg. However
thunderstorm coverage will depend on the amount of low-level cloud
cover, which would ultimately keep us capped for most of the day.
Regardless, effective bulk shear is expected to remain well below 20
knots, so severe thunderstorms are not expected. High temperatures
will be near or slightly above climatology despite the potential for
some low clouds.

Moving into the weekend, Saturday looks to be the most active day of
the period, as the cutoff low transitions into an open wave and
lifts over Wyoming and Nebraska. This will not only provide a
greater source for lift, but flow aloft will also increase and
effective bulk shear values are around 25-30 knots mainly over the
Nebraska Panhandle. Forecast soundings indicate strong cap (MLCINH
~100 J/Kg) beneath a stout elevated mixed layer, however if storms
can initiate in this environment with ~800 J/Kg of MLCAPE, they
would have the potential to become severe. This will need to be
monitored as we get closer to the weekend regarding the specific
hazards, so stay tuned for future updates.

Sunday, the main wave departs our region and we remain in
southwesterly flow aloft. This should result in the continuation of
the ongoing moisture fetch, with ensemble guidance showing PWAT
values near the 85th percentile of SE Wyoming and W Nebraska,
allowing for additional chances for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms through the remainder of the long term period. The
ridge to our east begins to amplify resulting in 500 mb height
rises, so can expect a brief warming trend towards the end of the
weekend and into the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Regional radars is showing decreasing shower activity, while
satellite is depicting widespread high level cloud coverage. These
clouds are expected to linger into the morning hours and into part
of the afternoon. VFR conditions are progged through the next 18
hours. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
initiate around 20z in the mountains and basins. This activity could
impact KCYS, KLAR, and perhaps KRWL terminals with MVFR conditions
and CIGS may lower to 1 to 2 kft. Additional activity may begin to
impact the Nebraska Panhandle terminals late into the forecast
period. Winds will primarily be from the southeast between 25-30
knots through much of the afternoon before decreasing somewhat
overnight tomorrow.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RV