Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

840
FXUS65 KCYS 082050
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
250 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue
  through Friday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions likely Friday
  afternoon into the early evening, with the potential for gusty
  showers.

- A pattern change Sunday into Monday will drop temperatures
  closer to near seasonal normals, and bring renewed chances
  for rainfall primarily in Carbon and Converse counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

The anomalously warm pattern continues over the next 48 hours across
SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle beneath an upper-level ridge
that has been responsible for the unseasonably hot temperatures so
far this month. This longwave ridge will begin to flatten into
tomorrow ahead of a shortwave trough digging into the Pacific
Northwest, which will set the stage for more unsettled weather into
early next week.

Current radar imagery shows a few weak convective showers across
Larimer and Jackson Counties south of the state line that are likely
being driven by differential heating of the higher terrain. These
are also being aided by another weak influx of subtropical moisture
being advected in from the southwest along the western periphery of
the mid and upper-level ridge, resulting in PWAT around 0.4" (which
is surprisingly around the 80th percentile relative to climatology).
Due to very weak (5-10 knot) 850-300 mb flow beneath the ridge, not
expecting any of the showers to make it off onto the plains. Kept
some very low (<15%) PoPs over the extreme Southern Laramie Range if
a gusty shower happens to sneak in from Colorado from the south and
west, but confidence and likelihood of this occurring is far too low
to mention in any deterministic wording. Even if this happens,
surface dewpoints are in the low to mid-20s with temperatures in the
70 with even some lower 80s, so any light precipitation would
evaporate before reaching the surface. As for fire concerns, despite
afternoon critical RH values of 10-15% along the I-25 corridor, the
limiting factor for Red Flag conditions today will be the lack of
winds. Gusts are peaking between 15-20 mph in the region of lowest
RH, so no fire highlights are in place for this afternoon.
Temperatures have again continued to be 15 to 20 degrees above
average, with Laramie having a decent shot at tying their daily
record on 75F set way back in 2020. Tonight will be similar to the
previous couple of nights, with mainly clear skies and light winds
of 5-10 knots. Despite conditions that are conducive for effective
radiative cooling, overnight lows will still remain around 10
degrees above average underneath the ridge.

Friday will be slightly more interesting than today (although not in
a good way), as our winds will increase drastically from today
thanks to low-level response from lee cyclogenesis occurring up
north across Alberta and Saskatchewan. This will bring an increase
in SW winds tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours, with gusts as
high as 35-40 mph primarily north of I-80 thanks to the increasing
gradient flow. Combined with critical afternoon RH values ranging
from 11-18%, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for tomorrow
afternoon/evening until 7PM MDT, mainly for SE Wyoming locations
north of the I-80 corridor, and for the extreme northern Nebraska
Panhandle. Temperatures tomorrow will continue to remain above
average given the gusty, downsloping flow regime. Locations across
the Panhandle have the greatest chance at reaching or breaking
record highs for this day as the 500 mb ridge axis shifts towards
the east. It is likely that many locations in W Nebraska reach the
upper 80s to perhaps 90 degrees for afternoon highs.

With the onset of mid and upper-level subtropical moisture embedded
in the SW flow pattern ahead of our next series of systems, tomorrow
will also increase our chances for high-based, gusty showers
tomorrow afternoon into the evening, with perhaps a lightning strike
or two given MLCAPE around 100 J/Kg. Although instability is quite
weak (though still impressive for October) and while the low-levels
are very dry, any of these showers will be capable of producing
gusty, erratic winds at the surface, in addition to dry lightning.
These hazards will not only escalate the anticipated fire concerns,
but also outdoor activities on Friday afternoon and evening for
those looking to get one last taste of summer before the cooler
weather next week. Have decided to increase PoPs as CAMs have
started to pick up some increased coverage of showers/storms
beginning sometime early to mid-afternoon into the evening. The
highest confidence in gusty shower coverage tomorrow afternoon and
evening will be over the higher terrain of SE Wyoming, therefore
have included the highest PoPs here (~15-20%), with much lower
confidence (5-10%) in the Nebraska Panhandle.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

In the long term we`re finally going to see active weather as
troughing begins to take over the western US with an uptick in
moisture and instability fueled by the remnants of two tropical
systems lifting up from the Pacific. Over the weekend we`ll see
ridging breaking down and moving off to the east as two lows
overtake the West Coast, one from the north and one from the
south. These two systems will continue to merge bringing a large
and deep cutoff upper level low that will control the Western
US into the start of the work week. As flow turns more
southwesterly during the weekend, we`ll see a notable influx of
moisture overspread the region. This should begin to fuel shower
chances that will just barely move into the CWA on Saturday
ahead of a cold front which will slowly drop down across the
region through Sunday. Current forecast calls for precipitation
to struggle to move further than the high terrain through Sunday
as the bulk of the moisture remains confined further west,
bringing stronger impacts across western and northern Wyoming.
Also of note, this initial push of colder air won`t be nearly
enough to completely shut down our October masquerading as
summer, with highs on Saturday still 12-18 degrees above normal
as 700mb temperatures still remain around 10-12C on Saturday,
and then slightly cooling on Sunday with highs still 8-12
degrees above normal in the 60`s to 70`s.

Monday into the middle of the week the closed upper level low
off of California will begin to weaken by Tuesday and then
eject across the Rockies Tuesday into Wednesday, becoming
absorbed by upper level flow as another trough begins to then
develop to bring further impacts just beyond the long term.
While ridging will be able to amplify to our east across the
Mississippi River Valley, we`ll remain in a split flow between
this and the troughing to our west. The NBM brings at least a
low-end chance of some precipitation on Monday and Tuesday as
moisture remains with PWAT values slightly above normal, but
this also means our temperatures should hover where they stood
on Sunday in the 60`s to 70`s. Wednesday is when we should
finally see cooler conditions and a bit more widespread
precipitation occur as the aforementioned West Coast low ejects
across the Rockies and just south of our region. While highs
will be a few degrees cooler and near normal to the west of the
I-25 corridor, temperatures further east should still remain a
few degrees above normal in front of the cold front. But the
long term doesn`t end without a shot of colder air, as the
overnight lows moving into Thursday morning should drop into the
30`s to 40`s, with some locations getting their first freeze of
the season potentially. And with air this cool, the mountains
should finally dip low enough that snow will begin returning to
the higher terrain of the region. This could even spread down
into the adjacent valleys and lower terrain, but don`t expect
our first significant snow storm just yet as this will likely be
mixed with rain and brief for the most part. But snowy peaks
may finally be on tap as we beginning moving into the second
half of the month, and relief from our warm and dry conditions
is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. A few high
clouds to clear skies expected, though some scattered lowered
ceilings may be possible this evening near KCYS. These lowered
CIGs will be from precipitation just south of the region in
Colorado, but at this time keeping any mention of it out of the
TAFs due to low probs. Winds breezy this afternoon, should
lessen during the evening before picking back up late tomorrow
morning into the afternoon, with gusts of 20-30 knots possible
generally from a westerly to northerly direction.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for WYZ417>422-
     425-427-432.
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for NEZ434.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG