Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

246
FXUS65 KCYS 201752
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1152 AM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures are expected to
  continue through at least mid-week.

- The next chance for precipitation and temperatures closer to
  seasonal averages will be late week, Thursday night, into
  next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Today is going to be a pretty mild day but a little warmer than
yesterday. High temperatures will be in the 60`s for Albany, Carbon,
and western portions of Laramie county. Areas east of I-25 minus
majority of Laramie county will have high temperatures in the low to
mid 70`s. This difference is caused by potential brief rain showers
inherited from Colorado between 3-6pm. While the hi-res models show
some weak showers producing the environment is kind of lack luster.
The most unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) hits only about 200 joules while the
models soundings depict a decent dry layer near the surface. Mid-
level water vapor isn`t entirely supporting the idea of anything
significant occurring as it has some moisture advecting in but its
not really going to be enough to override the dry air surrounding
it. So, the most we may end up actually getting is a cloudy skies
with slightly breezier winds underneath. If moisture does end up
making it to the ground it doesn`t seem evident to expect anything
more than a brief sprinkle that barely wets the cement. Pops under
15 percent were kept for this afternoon so the chance for any precip
doesn`t show up in our weather grids. But the cloudiness will likely
drop the temperature down a few degrees compared to our clear sunny
areas, so thats why Albany, Carbon, and majority of Laramie county
are expected to be in the 60`s today. Overnight temperatures tonight
look to be in the 30`s and 40`s so something rather seasonable for
our forecast area. Wednesday will also be a pretty mild day with
light winds in the 60`s and 70`s. Light winds are forecasted once
again for the area as we will kind of be in the middle of two flows
located in the Pacific northwest and the desert southwest of the
United States. Things look to ramp up Wednesday evening as a weak
shortwave starts to inch closer to the Intermountain West to give us
increasing cloud cover at the very least. The positive about that is
that clouds act as a little bit of a blanket at night and help us
keep the warmth closer to the ground. The overnight temps for
wednesday night will be in the 40`s and 50`s for the most part.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026


Thursday...Moist south southwest flow aloft develops in advance of
the upper low over Nevada, with deeper moisture and a weak shortwave
trough aloft moving across our western counties, producing scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms south of a line from Rawlins, to
Wheatland to Cheyenne.

Friday...As the main trough aloft moves across western Wyoming, a
cold front will lie north to south across our counties, helping to
produce scattered showers mainly west of I-25 in the afternoon, and
spreading eastward in the evening.

Saturday...The primary trough aloft moves overhead early in the day,
and orographic lift will likely produce scattered showers in the
afternoon from Douglas to Laramie, and in the evening south of a
Rawlins to Scottsbluff line.

Sunday/Monday...Drier conditions return under northwest flow aloft
and as the low and mid levels dry out somewhat. 700 mb temperatures
near 3 Celsius will yield high temperatures in the mid 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

A rather diffuse and weak negatively tilted shortwave trough
aloft, or atmospheric perturbation, stretching from central
Wyoming to central Colorado at midday, will move slowly across
western Nebraska and western Kansas by this evening, then to
eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas by dawn Wednesday, as a
transitory shortwave ridge aloft builds across our forecast area
overnight. A weak, dry cold front, or surface trough, will slide
southward across our forecast area late this afternoon and
tonight, shifting winds to a north and northeast direction, but
with little, if any, sensible weather effects.

Wyoming TAFS...High confidence in VFR prevailing. Associated
with a shortwave trough aloft, the HRRR past few runs are
hinting at isolated to widely scattered showers possibly
developing during the late afternoon and early evening.
Inherited PROB30s for Laramie and Cheyenne, and confidence not
high enough to remove these PROB30s for continuity sake as the
models may be underdoing convective shower potential. Typical
diurnal wind gusts to near 25 knots through early evening due
to low level pressure gradients and differential heating effects
caused by orographics.

Nebraska TAFS...VFR prevails, with high confidence. Clear skies
will prevail, with scattered clouds near 10000 feet through the
afternoon near KSNY. Typical diurnal wind gusts to near 22 knots
through early evening due to low level pressure gradients and
orographically driven differential heating effects.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN