Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

892
FXUS65 KCYS 132329
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
429 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for much of southeast
  Wyoming and western Nebraska from 11AM Sunday through 5PM
  Sunday.

- Gusty winds are set to return Sunday into the beginning half
  of the week.

- High winds are possible Tuesday in our wind prones across southeast
  Wyoming. Along with fire weather concerns over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1241 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers are expected this
afternoon and evening as an upper-level trough pushes through the
CWA, enhancing synoptic lift. Mostly cloudy skies will continue
through the afternoon and evening before starting to clear out
overnight as the best synoptic lift moves out of the region. The
attendant 700mb shortwave is diffuse at best, leading to no
significant increases in the 700mb jet and, therefore, no
significant winds expected today. The last of the showers and storms
will be out of the CWA by early Saturday morning. Afternoon relative
humidity value today will remain at and above about 25% and with
light winds, fire weather will not be a major concern today, but
this will change over the weekend.

For Saturday, the upper-level trough will continue to push eastward
out of the area as the next upper-level ridge builds into the
Intermountain West. The apex of this ridge is expected to be
overhead Sunday, but warm and dry conditions will be dominant on
Saturday as the ridge moves in. The 700mb ridge will start to
strengthen throughout the afternoon hours Saturday, leading to an
elevation of winds across western portions of the CWA as westerly
winds increase near the top of the 700mb ridge. High winds are not
anticipated Saturday, but breezy conditions are expected especially
west of the Laramie Range. With synoptic scale subsidence ongoing
across the region with the upper-level trough, no precipitation is
anticipated for Saturday and skies will clear out through the early
morning to late-morning hours. 700mb temperatures warm back into the
-2 to -C range, leading to surface high temperatures in the 50s east
of the Laramie Range and 40s west of the Laramie Range. Overall,
another quiet and warm start to the weekend.

The upper-level ridge will move directly over the CWA on Sunday,
leading to strong synoptic subsidence and not precipitation chances.
However, a band of 500mb vorticity will push through the ridge,
leading to modest synoptic lift across the region. With this modest
lift, cloud cover will start to increase early Sunday morning with
mostly cloudy skies expected by the evening hours. 700mb
temperatures will warm to above 0C, likely between about 1 to 3C
range leading to afternoon highs in the upper-50s to mid-60s east of
the Laramie Range and upper-40s to mid-50s west of the Laramie
Range. Near the apex of the 700mb ridge, height gradients will
strengthen as a surface low attempts to develop over northern
Wyoming and western South Dakota. This leads to an increase in the
700mb jet to around 40 to 45kts. GFS downward omega values suggest
and classic mountain wave set up across the CWA, so some of these
700mb winds will mix down to the surface producing gusty winds up to
40 to 45 mph. With the dry conditions expected for most of the
winter and a ridge overhead, relative humidity values will drop
significantly into the 10 to 15 percent range east of the Laramie
Range and 20s to 30s west. Therefore, decided to issue a Fire
Weather Watch from 18Z Sunday through 00Z Monday to capture the
greatest chance for favorable fire weather conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

The two big stories in the extended that we are monitoring is the
potential for critical fire weather conditions of which may bleed
into Monday/Tuesday from the previous day along with high wind
concerns Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. So, lets start off with the
fire weather concerns, the environment may be conducive for a long
duration Red Flag Warning that begins Sunday which may be extended
into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. So, even though conditions may
not meet our typical criteria for issuing Red Flag Warnings, we have
numerous elements that are coming together to bring this widespread
threat. The first and possibly the most critical is the abnormally
dry conditions that we`ve been seeing this season which has induced
an abundance of dry fuels east of the I-25 corridor. This coupled
with breezy conditions and above normal temperatures, more on that
later, will bring critical fire weather conditions to much of the
CWA east of I-25. Another thing of high concern is relative humidity
(RH) and the lack of overnight recovery for this time period. Min RH
values will continue to dip into the mid teens; however, overnight
recovery will see RH values only recover into the low 50 percent
range. Currently, we have issued a Red Flag Watch for Sunday but
this will be upgraded and extended into the following days.

Now lets switch to winds and the potential high wind event for
Tuesday and possibly Wednesday across southeast Wyoming. Lets start
out looking at the synoptic setup, upper level ridging gets pushed
east as troughing moves in. As it does so, the upper level flow at
500mb becomes southwesterly, bringing in a surge of moisture that
will increases the threat of precipitation across the CWA Tuesday
through Thursday. However, this will be primarily across the higher
terrain west of I-25. Shifting to winds, which will be one of two
main concerns, will ramp up Tuesday as a 700mb jet, 60-65 knots,
slides in over the CWA. This along with ample subsidence (negative
Omega(GFS)) will aid in mixing these winds down to the surface. As
such, in-house guidance for high winds has probabilities ranging
between 50-60 percent, with a few locations up to 80%. So, this
translates to surface winds in the 40-55 mph range with gusts up to
75 mph, possibly higher for a few locations along I-25 and I-80. Not
yet issued, but most likely over the next day or so, look for High
Wind Warnings. By Tuesday evening, as the 700mb jet ejects to our
east, we will see winds diminish rapidly. For Wednesday, mid-level
support wanes a bit, so we are not expecting winds as strong. Will
the Nebraska Panhandle get into the mix, yep, expect some of the
stronger winds to trickle into the region, so high wind products may
be needed there as well. Stay tuned...

Temperatures in the long term will start off balmy with highs
topping out in the lower 50s across the higher terrain west of I-25
and upper 50s to mid 60s east of the corridor, warmest across the
Nebraska Panhandle. Lows, at the start, will generally bottom out
near 32 degrees F for many locations across the CWA. Over the
following days, through Friday, temperatures will gradually cool
each day. So, by the end of the period, highs will only top out near
30 degrees west of I-25 and low to mid 40s to the east with lows
dipping down into the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 426 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Showers will move through the southern portions of the area
through about midnight tonight. CYS and SNY are the most likely
terminals to see rainfall. Occasional dips into MVFR CIGs will
be possible this evening. In addition, there is about a 30%
chance for snow to mix in at CYS, which may produce a VIS drop.

Clouds will clear from west to east after midnight with winds
turning west to northwest bur remaining light. LAR has a 30%
chance for shallow fog development early Saturday morning. This
was hinted at, but confidence is too low to add LIFR as a
prevailing group at this time.

Expect mostly clear skies Saturday with generally modest
northwest winds gusting 15 to 25 knots.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for WYZ417-418-428>433.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...MN