Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

630
FXUS65 KCYS 091746
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1146 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous rain showers and widely scattered thunderstorms
  expected on Saturday. A few strong thunderstorms or an
  isolated severe storm possible.

- Mostly dry and warmer weather will prevail for Sunday through
  Wednesday, with thunderstorms possibly returning late in the
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Current KCYS radar loop this morning shows scattered showers
across the high plains stretching from the North Platte River
Valley southward to the I-80 corridor. Brief rain showers have
been reported at times, but most of the rainfall isn`t reaching
the ground. This activity is likely the result of some some
midlevel WAA as a short wave ridge axis slides southeast across
the region. This band of showers is forecast to continue moving
southeast and out of the area by sunrise. Further north, models
show the next potent upper level trough and associated cold
front in western and central Montana. This will be our next
concern as we head into Saturday afternoon.

Forecast for this weekend remains on track with only some minor
tweaks to today`s forecast. Models show the short-wave ridge
axis quickly moving southeast of the area as the upper level
trough across Montana digs south into Wyoming over the next 6 to
12 hours. This trough appears stronger compared to the previous
system on Thursday with better forcing and a more defined cold
front for early-mid May. All models, including short range high
resolution guidance, show numerous rain showers and widely
scattered thunderstorms developing first across east central
Wyoming and the northern Nebraska Panhandle shortly after
sunrise through noon today. This activity will gradually work
its way south towards the North Platte River Valley and the I-80
corridor by mid to late afternoon, respectively. SPC has
increased the areal coverage of the Marginal Risk of strong to
severe thunderstorms to include all areas south and west of the
North Platte River Valley this afternoon through this evening,
including Laramie, Cheyenne, and clipping Scottsbluff and Sidney
Nebraska. There is some good forcing with the mid level trough
and associated cold front, with good low level convergence near
the frontal boundary in addition to any outflow from storm
formation further north. CAPE values and model soundings haven`t
changed much, showing 800 to 1200 j/kg of CAPE. Noting some pretty
good low to midlevel lapse rates near the front, which should
help hail potential if any cells get organized. The GFS and NAM
do show between 35 to 40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear, so this
scenario can`t be ruled out. However, mediocre low level
moisture and relatively cool temperatures should be the limiting
factor in this event, especially with dry westerly flow at the
onset of this event towards the I-80 corridor that most models
are showing. For hazards, expect the main concern to be strong
gusty winds, with straight hodographs initially. Hail will be a
secondary concern mainly because freezing levels will be
relatively low in addition to some storm organization near the
cold front boundary due to backing winds aloft. The greatest
potential should be south of a Douglas to Wheatland and
Scottsbluff line, including most of the southern Nebraska
Panhandle. Increased POP after 300 PM today with activity likely
lingering after sunset across portions of western Nebraska.

For Sunday, all models show a drying trend as the fast moving
upper level trough axis slides southeast into the southern
plains. Early Sunday morning could be relatively cold with good
radiational cooling behind the front. Will likely see some low
temperatures below freezing in the upper 20s to near 30. Upper
level ridge axis across the Great Basin region is forecast to
nudge eastward into Wyoming and Colorado, resulting in a drier
airmass and increasing temperatures at the surface and aloft.
Sunday afternoon will be pleasant with highs in the middle 60s
to low 70s for most of the area. As this ridge axis moves over
and east of the region on Monday, expect high temperatures to be
15 to 20 degrees above average with highs in the upper 70s to
upper 80s. Locations below 4500 feet may see highs around 90
degrees Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Tuesday...Brisk northwest flow aloft continues, and dry conditions
remain with scarce low and mid level moisture availability. Cooler
temperatures in the post cold frontal sector as upslope north and
northeast winds develop.

Wednesday...Another warming trend ensues as 700 mb temperatures
reach 14 Celsius, yielding highs in the upper 70s to near 90
degrees. The dry northwest flow aloft prevails, and with warm mid
level temperatures producing enough convective inhibition, also
known as CIN, no showers or thunderstorms are anticipated.

Thursday...The ridge aloft moves further east over western Wyoming.
Some pseudo like monsoonal moisture will affect Wyoming and
Colorado, and there is a moderate likelihood that isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
develop in a swath from Chadron to Cheyenne, across much of the
forecast area. Model solutions have been changing, lowering
confidence, so will keep it dry for now to blend in with our
neighboring offices at Denver/Boulder, Grand Junction, Riverton,
Rapid City and North Platte, though this day promises hope for some
beneficial rainfall.

Friday...Negatively tilted and fast moving shortwave trough aloft
progged to move across Wyoming, sending a Pacific origin cold front
to a Lusk to Cheyenne line by late afternoon. This trough aloft will
be moisture scant, thus only isolated showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Showers are developing across the Nebraska Panhandle and within
the vicinity of KCDR, KBFF, and KAIA. This activity is expected
to become more widespread before the arrival of a mid level
shortwave. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to
form over the mountain ranges and spread southeast into the
high plains. Impacts to terminals may include variable surface
winds and gusts above 50 kts, hail, lightning, and reduced
visibilities down to two statue miles or less. KBFF, KAIA, and
KSNY have the highest confidence of thunderstorms this
afternoon. Storms are possible at all other terminals with the
same threats to aviation. A few hour lull in storms is expected
after sunset before more shower and storm development is
possible for the Nebraska Panhandle terminals. The intensity of
this convection is expected to be less than the afternoons,
however ceilings could be lower. Elsewhere, weak, variable winds
and high humidity may create fog near sunrise. Probabilities
are too uncertain at the moment and were left out of the TAFS
for this synoptic forecast period. Cloud coverage is expected to
diminish going into tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...RV