Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

721
FXUS65 KCYS 251132
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
532 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected
  Wednesday due to low humidity and gusty winds.

- Isolated dry lightning is possible (10-20% chance) over the
  High Plains Wednesday evening.

- Record breaking warm temperatures are expected once again on
  Wednesday.

- Intermittent high winds continue for the Arlington/Elk
  Mountain area through early Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Exceptionally warm conditions continue across the area today as the
present heat wave peaks. GOES water vapor imagery shows most cloud
cover shifted off to the north and east as the extremely powerful
upper level ridge amplifies over the southern Rockies this morning.
A subtle vort-max is pushing some cloud cover into Carbon county at
this time, which is expected to clear out towards sunrise. Breezy to
windy conditions are continuing in Wyoming this morning, which is
helping to keep very warm temperatures in place. Most areas in
Wyoming are still above typical high temperatures for this time of
year as of 2AM. This will setup another day of record breaking
warmth today. The strength of the ridge aloft peaks today while we
have a boost from plentiful sunshine and westerly downslope warming
for the entire area. By this afternoon, the NAEFS mean depicts 700-
mb temperatures around +10 to +13C across the area, easily clearing
the climatological maximum over the entire forecast area. If it
weren`t for new March monthly records just set this past Saturday,
today would easily be the warmest March day on record for the area.
Forecast highs for this afternoon are generally close to 10 degrees
above daily record highs for March 25, but most are a tie with, or
slightly cooler than the new monthly records from Saturday. Still,
nearly all long term climate sites have a 10-30% chance to break
those new records today.

The record warmth will set the stage for another round of dangerous
fire weather conditions today. While dewpoints will not be as low as
last week`s round of fire weather, they will be low enough to easily
get critical fire weather conditions in all non-mountain areas.
Conditions will be more marginal in Carbon and Albany counties, but
confidence in critical conditions was high enough to expand the Red
Flag Warning another row of zones southward, now including the
Saratoga, Elk Mountain, and Laramie areas. A vort-max will move
across the area this afternoon, elevating mid to upper level
moisture and providing weak synoptic lift. Expect scattered
elevated shower activity to develop across the area late this
afternoon, which should continue for most of the night. Limited
instability is expected to be present over the High Plains, so
there remains a chance (about 10 to 20%) for isolated lightning
with this activity. This will increase fire weather concerns
since these showers will be on top of very deep, well-mixed
boundary layers. If enough mass can be pulled into these
showers, we may also see some isolated dry microburst activity
with gusty and erratic winds.

A more notable shortwave trough will pass well to our north and
flatten the ridge for the end of the work week. This wave will send
a cold front southward in two phases. The first frontal boundary
will come with an increase in low-level moisture and a wind shift to
the north or northeast. This will arrive Thursday morning, probably
before sunrise in our northernmost zones, and closer to 9AM for the
Cheyenne to Sidney corridor. The front will stall along the Laramie
Range, keeping milder and drier air with gusty westerly winds in
Carbon and Albany counties while the rest of the area sees a more
notable cool down and much higher surface humidity. It will remain
quite breezy for the entire area, despite the change in wind
direction. A reinforcing cold front will push southward between the
mid afternoon and evening hours across the area. This round should
be able to push into the valleys of Carbon and Albany counties and
reverse the wind direction there. In addition, another round of
widely scattered showers (mixing with snow overnight) is expected to
develop, but these will be very limited and the probability for
wetting rainfall remains low (10 to 20% chance).

Friday will be the coolest day of the week as the center of a strong
surface high pressure system makes its closest approach and begins
to retreat to the east. Winds will turn southeasterly over much of
the area as the surface high begins its retreat. A cooler and breezy
day can be expected with highs generally close to seasonal averages.
This wind direction with some low-level moisture trapped up against
the mountains may help to produce low clouds and/or fog especially
Friday morning between Laramie and Cheyenne as stronger winds spill
into the Laramie Valley. Gusty southerly winds will strengthen
through the day and into the overnight hours over the High
Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

The break from fire weather concerns will not last long as models
are in good agreement showing the upper level ridge amplifying over
the southern Rockies/Plains once again this weekend. Record highs
are in the forecast for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday as 700-mb
temperatures level off in the +6 to +10C range during this period.
These values are high for the time of year, but not
unprecedented like the other rounds of warm air we have
experienced this month. Monthly record highs should remain safe
through this next round of warmth. This will push humidity back
into near critical to critical territory each afternoon through
this stretch, increasing fire weather concerns once again. The
wind component of the fire weather forecast is a bit more
uncertain. For Saturday, expect a surface trough to setup near
the Laramie Range and gradually move east. Southerly winds will
decrease through the day over the High Plains as westerly winds
increase in Carbon and Albany counties. Westerlies are expected
to spread across the entire area for Sunday and Monday, but
speeds at this time. Critical conditions appear probable along
and west of the Laramie Range each day, but there is more
uncertainty whether winds will be strong enough over the High
Plains.

We will begin to see signs of a large scale pattern change by the
end of the weekend and into early next week. The powerful upper
level ridge will slowly move more into the southern Plains, focusing
the extreme warmth over the center part of the country. This will
allow for Pacific moisture to return to the western United States by
the last few days of March. The ridge position will spread
southwesterly flow across the Four Corners states, setting up an
extremely unseasonable psuedo-monsoonal synoptic weather pattern.
NAEFS mean precipitable water approaches the 90th percentile of
climatology by Monday into Tuesday, which may set the stage for a
pattern of diurnal convection developing over the higher terrain by
early next week. The next chance for widespread appreciable moisture
will be at the very end of the forecast period around April 1 when a
Pacific trough tries to make it across the Rockies. It is much too
early to get into details, but about 50% of ensemble members show
widespread wetting rainfall with this potential system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period. Gusty winds
continue at RWL and LAR this morning, and will fill in at CYS by
mid morning and in the Nebraska panhandle by midday. Look for
gusts between 30 and 40 knots in Wyoming and between 20 and 30
knots in Nebraska. Winds will ease around sunset. Widely
scattered showers and very isolated thunderstorms will develop
late this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. These
will mainly be near CYS, BFF, AIA, and SNY. This activity will
bring a chance for gusty and erratic winds in their vicinity,
but VIS drops due to rainfall are unlikely. A cold front
arriving in the High Plains towards the end of the TAF period
will bring a wind shift to the north or northeast.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
     evening for WYZ417>419-430>433.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     WYZ420>423-425-427>429.
     High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ110.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
     evening for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN