Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

200
FXUS65 KCYS 141151
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
451 AM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers will come to an end this morning in Platte,
  Albany, and Laramie counties. Locally slick conditions and
  patchy blowing snow are possible.

- A widespread strong to locally damaging wind event remains on
  track for much of the area, with the strongest winds Thursday
  night through Friday afternoon.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
  daily from Thursday onward due to gusty winds, low humidity,
  and dry fuels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

The synoptic weather pattern over the country remains dominated by
an amplified west coast ridge and broad central/eastern trough
pattern this morning, with a nearly due north to south oriented jet
streak located in between the two features over our area. GOES
imagery indicates moisture and cloud cover moving south in this jet
streak as an elongated vort-max aloft pushes away to the southeast.
This feature helped push a frontal boundary back into our area,
which now remains stalled roughly along the I-25 corridor.
Frontogenesis combined with modest overrunning and low-level
convergence are helping to support a persistent region of light to
moderate precipitation streaming southward along the Laramie range
and I-25 corridor. As temperatures have cooled, we are seeing mostly
snow above about 5000 ft in elevation. Areas of southern Platte,
Laramie, and eastern Albany counties may see localized accumulations
up to an inch or so this morning before forcing for lift evaporates
by around 8AM.

After that, expect the frontal boundary to be pushed back to the
east as the western ridge amplifies and expands over our area. 700-
mb temperatures will recover quickly from around -4 to -8C this
morning to around 0 to +2C by tomorrow morning. Highs will be
overall a few degrees cooler than yesterday over the High Plains as
the recovery of the warm airmass will not be immediate. Morning
cloud cover will also hold temperatures down a little bit today, but
this will also keep fire weather concerns low despite continued
gusty northwest winds over much of the area.

Two shortwave troughs will dive down from the north across the area
during this period. The first will be a weak system arriving
Thursday morning. Ahead of this system, expect falling surface
pressure over the High Plains which will enhance the cross-barrier
pressure gradient through our gaps tonight into Thursday morning.
Forcing above the surface for high winds will not really be present,
but pure gap flow will still help nudge up winds, likely mainly at
Bordeaux. Surface parameters are right around typical thresholds for
warning issuances (e.g. 850-mb Craig to Casper height gradient
around 55 to 60 m and Arlington to Bordeaux MSLP gradient around 5-6
mb). However, the wind direction aloft will be a very unfavorable
northwest to even NNW. Wind speeds in the gridded forecast were
adjusted to just below criteria, but held off on any headlines for
Bordeaux tonight. Probabilities for high winds are generally around
30 to 40%. With the warmest 700-mb temperatures moving overhead at
night, Thursday`s high temperatures potential will be slightly
reduced behind the first weak shortwave trough, but overall should
be similar to Wednesday. Once the surface trough moves eastward
Thursday morning, expect gusty northwest winds to overspread the
entire High Plains yet again, with a fairly dry airmass moving in
and increasing fire weather concerns.

The second shortwave trough will arrive Thursday night, and will be
much stronger than the first. Expect a significant drop in
temperatures and rapid rise in winds behind this boundary Thursday
evening. Recent model guidance has begun to hint at some
precipitation along this frontal boundary, which is consistent with
the general trend this season of models missing precipitation along
these frontal boundaries until the short range. Lift appears to be
fairly potent with respectable frontogenesis and low-level
convergence as the front pushes southwest. Moisture will be quite
limited, but there may be a narrow band of better moisture right
along the boundary before drier air quickly pushes in from behind.
The NBM remains completely dry, but decided to introduce some low
end PoPs Thursday evening and overnight, mainly along the Laramie
Range, Snowy Range, and I-25 corridor where lift associated with the
front struggling to push west will be most potent. Due to the brief
window and limited moisture, liquid precipitation over 0.1" is
highly unlikely, but some locations may be able to pick up a few
tenths of an inch of snow.

Behind the front, we will see a very strong pressure gradient set up
over the High Plains with very strong winds moving in aloft. A
potent 700-mb jet will push southward Thursday evening and plant
itself over the area through Saturday. This will peak in strength
Friday morning at over 70 knots per the LREF mean. Widespread strong
northwest winds gusting 60 to 70 mph will be possible over the High
Plains late Thursday night through Friday. A High Wind Watch has
been issued to cover this threat. Closer to the I-25 corridor,
confidence is a little lower with 700-mb winds not quite as strong.
Northwest is also not a particularly favorable direction for the
typical wind prone areas (although the I-80 summit can still get
quite windy in these cases). Forecast soundings show a transient
stable layer developing between 500 and 700-mb which could help
get some mountain wave activity going, but wind speeds increase
dramatically above the inversion, which reduces the chance for
wave breaking and its associated acceleration. This does,
however, support the potential for trapped lee waves. Therefore,
only messaging gusts to around 75 mph for the wind prone areas
at this time, but we will need to monitor this potential in the
coming days. This will also be an unusually cold high wind
event, with temperatures struggling to break freezing on Friday
for most of the area. Despite the cold temperatures,
exceptionally dry air moving in behind the front will keep
relative humidity quite low, and lead to another round of
elevated fire weather conditions. Grassland wildfire could
spread quickly in these winds, even with the cold temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

High Wind watches are set to expire Friday afternoon or evening
across the area as the setting sun should help decouple the surface
from the much stronger winds aloft continuing. There could be an
exception in the I-80 wind prone areas, which can more readily
realize elevated 700-mb winds. When considering an upgrade to this
watch, we may also need to consider extending or continuing into
Saturday morning. Saturday won`t be quite as windy as Friday, but
still plenty windy with gusts generally in the 40 to 55 mph range
anticipated. The ridge will begin to recover Saturday, pushing high
temperatures close to seasonal averages. We should climb above
average for Sunday as the ridge expands to the east again.

Ensemble members diverge significantly on Monday. One camp of
members (about 60%) show another shortwave trough pushing down from
the north and bringing another shot of cold air into the area on
Monday. The other 40% of ensemble members keep the ridge fairly
strong over the area, and thus keep temperatures milder. If we do
see this front moving through the area, there will likely be another
chance for some light snow, but the maximum potential of this would
be quite limited thanks to moisture remaining extremely low. In
fact, nearly all ensemble members keep dewpoints in the single
digits to lower teens at best through the middle part of next week.
As a result, the regular breezy to windy conditions continuing will
produce elevated to near critical fire weather conditions over the
High Plains for the forseeable future. There is little to no chance
for considerable precipitation (> 0.1" liquid) through at least
the 22nd, and possibly longer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 433 AM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Snow showers will come to an end over the next few hours, but
periods of MVFR, if not a brief round of IFR, will remain
possible at KCYS, KLAR, and KCDR. VFR should prevail after about
16z or so. After that, another round of gusty northwest winds is
expected, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots at KRWL and Nebraska
terminals, and gusts of 30 to 40 knots at KLAR and KCYS. Winds
will ease overnight.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
     for WYZ101-102.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
     for WYZ107-108-118-119.
     High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     afternoon for WYZ110.
     High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     evening for WYZ116-117.
NE...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
     for NEZ002-095.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
     for NEZ003-019>021-054-055-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN