Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

539
FXUS65 KCYS 112045
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
245 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to record warmth expected today and again on Wednesday
  under high pressure.

- Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions ongoing
  today over east central Wyoming and the northern Nebraska
  Panhandle.

- Critical fire conditions possible again on Thursday alongside
  strong winds, with dry conditions persisting through the end
  of the week before precipitation may make a return into the
  weekend alongside cooler conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Late Spring heat and elevated to critical fire weather
conditions are the main concerns in the short term. Warm
temperatures ongoing across the area with highs peaking in the
70`s to low 90`s. Meanwhile breezy winds are bringing elevated
to near critical fire weather concerns for Converse and Niobrara
Counties as well as into the Nebraska Panhandle. While most of
our Wyoming zones are experiencing enough greenup to preclude
critical fire danger, our Nebraska zones remain dry enough that
these elevated concerns could present fire danger.

Moving into this evening and overnight, a cold front will move
across the region and briefly relieve the warmth we`re
experiencing today, though it will be short lived and
temperatures remain above average moving into Tuesday. But for
the overnight into early morning period, high resolution
guidance is picking up on the potential for a few weak showers
to develop along and just behind this boundary, with minimal
precipitation likely from this weak system. Introduced some
slight chances of showers along the WY/NE/SD border area
alongside neighboring offices to account for this low potential.

Tuesday highs should be mostly relegated to the 70`s across the
area behind the front, remaining around 10 degrees above
average. And by Wednesday the high will re-strengthen over the
region, bringing similar temperatures to what we are
experiencing today with a shot at tying or breaking records once
again. While fire weather concerns will be elevated the next two
days, RH values should remain just above critical thresholds
despite very breezy southerly winds in the Nebraska Panhandle on
Wednesday, but will need to continue to monitor trends for
potential fire weather headlines then.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Models have brought the compact trough we`ve been monitoring the
last few days well north in the last couple of run cycles today.
This at odds with the trend observed yesterday. It may be safe to
say at this point confidence in the progression of this system
remains low until it is closer to the Northwest Coastline. Another
aspect of the latest trends are for it to be more progressive,
entering our area during the day Thursday. The surface cyclogenesis
in advance of this upper level system may begin overnight Wednesday.
Moisture transport along a low level jet in response from the
developing low pressure to our north will begin to ramp up and
extend into the morning hours. A dryline takes shape near the
Laramie Range in the morning and mixes east before being overtaken
by a Pacific cold front. These details are likely to change as the
forecast period nears.

Here is the forecast as they currently align with the general
consensus among guidance this afternoon. Conditions are likely to be
dry area wide. Relative humidity values in the low teens and perhaps
single digits could result behind the dryline/Pacific front. Due to
the upper level system shifting northward, the surface low is likely
to be deeper, inducing greater pressure gradients and stronger winds
as a result. This is in contrast to the scenario yesterday with a
more southward trough. Our machine learning wind models have
increased probabilities of strong winds, favoring southwest to
northeast oriented range gap locations. These probabilities are in
the 40-60% ranges. We will continue to watch the placement and
strength of this system for high wind concerns. Regardless, frequent
gusts to 45-50 mph are possible over areas of very low RH values
creating fire weather concerns. A very slight risk of thunderstorms
may materialize along the dryline as it moves east. Coverage may
only pertain to a single storm or two if any develop. Temperatures
in the mountain ranges and basins are likely to be lower than
Wednesday, peaking in the low 70s. Elsewhere temperatures in the mid
70s to mid 80s are possible.

This system departs overnight Thursday leaving behind a weak ridging
pattern for Friday. Temperatures cool down slightly area wide with a
general flow out of the northwest bringing in dry continental air.
RH values do not improve much for Friday and winds remain breezy,
though not as potent as they were Thursday.

This weekend could begin a period of more troughing for the
northwest and extending into our areas. Still long range, but
increasing deep layer moisture may give us a few chances of
showers and storms along with increasing cloudiness. Surface
conditions are still dry with the majority of the moisture from
the Gulf being kept to our south and east. Sunday and Monday may
have a better shot of more widespread storms, but at this range
predictability is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Scattered high level clouds and VFR conditions will prevail
across the regional terminals this afternoon. Wind gusts to 25
knots from the west at all terminals except at KRWL where gusts
could reach 35 knots. Overnight a cold front moves in from the
north. A wind shift out of the north-northeast and reduced
ceilings along and north of the front can be expected. Flight
rules should remain in VFR. Some low level wind shear may occur
nearby KBFF in the 7-10z timeframe tonight given elevated gusts
and convergence of winds along the valley ridges imposed by the
cold front. Chances are too low to include in TAFS presently.
Skies clear at terminals around day break except for a few
lingering low level clouds.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...RV