Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

823
FXUS65 KCYS 270520
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1020 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warnings are in effect from this evening through
  Saturday morning.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through 6PM Saturday
  evening.

- Widespread precipitation chances return early next week,
  though daily probabilities remain only between about 30 and
  50%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

Short term remains quite active despite the pattern being mostly
dominated by high pressure ridging through the period. The
aforementioned ridge will continue to hold through the start of
the weekend, promoting further unseasonable warmth as highs
remain in the 50`s to 60`s over the next couple of days.
Meanwhile the CWA will be on the cusp of being located between
the ridge to the southwest and troughing to our northeast,
bringing an enhanced pressure gradient and promoting what else -
high winds across the region. High Wind Warnings that expired
earlier today will return this evening and continue through
Saturday morning before finally expiring thereafter. In house
guidance is remaining in consistently good agreement on this
final stretch of high winds, with probabilities in the 60-80%
range for high winds at our wind prone locations, fueled by
Craig to Casper pressure gradients of 50-60 meters and 700mb
winds into the 55-65 knot range being driven downward by strong
negative omega values.

But dry conditions and gusty winds also lead to fire weather
concerns, and Red Flag Warnings are ongoing for our eastern
zones where fuels remain conducive of carrying fires from an
abnormally dry winter. With this update, went ahead and extended
the Red Flag Warnings for southeastern Wyoming and the southern
Nebraska Panhandle through Saturday, as RH values look to
return to the mid teens alongside breezy winds before a cold
front should bring values back up and end our fire concerns.
Plus the addition of poor overnight recoveries will only
increase concerns on any fires that do get started. But the
aforementioned cold front should help bring a brief end to our
warmth and fire concerns as temperatures drop around 5 to 10
degrees moving into Sunday and bring chances of precipitation
back to the CWA. That being said, the bulk of any potential
activity is expected into the long term, with rain and some snow
mix just starting to creep into our area late Saturday night
into early Sunday, mostly relegated to our higher elevation
zones as usual.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

The period will begin underneath WNW flow and weak ridging
downstream of a closed low located over Northern California. This
feature will provide a source for ascent mainly over Southern
Wyoming. As noted in prior discussions, the forcing for ascent
appears to be rather weak. However, topographic lift in the vicinity
of the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges may serve to increase QPF
particularly on the higher peaks Sunday night. Precipitation amounts
east of I-25 are expected to be light. High temperatures will remain
above-average in the 50s east of the Laramie Range with 40s further
west.

Monday will feature slightly cooler temperatures and overcast
conditions as the ridge breaks down and the 500 mb closed low begins
to transverse the Great Basin. Again, there will be a chance for a
few rain/snow showers, but these shouldn`t amount to much. On
Tuesday, the shortwave trough will continue eastward, however the
bulk of the synoptic-scale forcing for ascent will remain well to
our south in Colorado, so precipitation coverage will be spotty at
best.

Towards the middle of the week, we transition into a more
progressive pattern, with a train of shortwave troughs moving across
our region. Details will become ironed out in future discussions as
this pattern shift gets closer in time. Generally, we can expect
slightly cooler and unsettled conditions towards the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions will dominate across all terminals for the duration
of this TAF period. Winds, as a whole, will remain gusty for
the southeast Wyoming terminals through this forecast, gusts 25
to 40 knots, while the Nebraska terminals will see winds
topping out in the 10 to 15 knot range until 17Z. However, this
wont last as winds will ramp back up around 17/18Z at KBFF,
KAIA, and KSNY with gusts 20 to 30 knots.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST Friday for WYZ417-418.
     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for WYZ430>433.
     High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Saturday for WYZ106-110-116-
     117.
     High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for WYZ118.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST Friday for NEZ434-435.
     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for NEZ436-437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...RZ