Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

704
FXUS65 KCYS 171734
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1034 AM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High winds continue this morning along the I-80 corridor from
  Elk Mountain to Sidney, with widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph
  continuing for the remainder of the area through midday.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday due to
  gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels. A Red Flag Warning
  is in effect for the Nebraska panhandle.

- Another round of high winds is possible in the wind prone
  areas Saturday night, then spreading to east central Wyoming
  and northwest Nebraska during the day on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

The powerful upper level low continues to spin over Iowa this
morning, keeping the strong 700-mb jet in place over the area
sandwiched between this low and the stubborn ridge over the west
coast. A narrow band of moisture on the southwest flank of the upper
level low has moved across the area early this morning, producing
scattered snow showers. However, drier air is starting to take over,
pushing the good frontogenesis and moisture producing this light
snow off to the south. As winds aloft have decoupled from the
surface overnight, we have fortunately been enjoying a slight break
from the extreme winds overnight, but it is still quite windy with
widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph, while gusts to 65 mph continue for
the I-80 corridor between Elk Mountain and Sidney. The High Wind
Warning was extended out to Sidney again this morning. 700-mb winds
of 60 to 70 knots remain overhead, and models show pretty good
subsidence along the I-80 corridor through midday, so we may be able
to get these gusts down to the surface more consistently than
previously though. The lowest confidence in this is in the city of
Cheyenne, but did not want to leave a gap in the warning. The 700-mb
jet will begin to weaken around midday, and we should see a break in
the 60+ mph winds after that. In addition to the wind, an unusually
dry airmass is moving in over the Nebraska panhandle today.
Dewpoints as low as -10 to -20F are expected with precipitable water
near the lowest percentile of climatology. This will push RH below
critical thresholds, and lead to high grassland wildfire danger once
again. The Red Flag Warning remains on track for these areas.
Humidity should be a little too high in Wyoming, but with strong
winds continuing, grassland wildfire spread will still be an
issue anywhere without snow cover.

We should get a short break from High Winds this afternoon, but warm
air advection will take over this evening as the ridge briefly
amplifies ahead of another upper level shortwave/cold front diving
down from the north. We probably won`t get much of a boost in high
temperatures, since all of the warm air advection aloft will take
place overnight, but this will push winds up again, at least in the
wind prone areas. The clipper system diving down over the northern
Plains will come with a surface low, and this will trail a surface
trough well to the southwest, boosting the cross-barrier pressure
gradient this afternoon. Marginally high winds will be possible in
the wind prone areas thanks to this low-level gradient. While the
flow aloft will not be a very favorable direction (NNW), the low
level gradients look strong enough to warrant another High Wind
Watch beginning around sunset this evening.

The surface trough will slowly push off to the east overnight,
pulling a weakly defined cold front across the High Plains Sunday
morning. This will bring down the cross barrier pressure
gradient, but it will come with yet another 700-mb jet behind
it. This one looks a little weaker and narrower than yesterday`s
event, but we will be looking at another round of strong
northwest winds over the Plains for Sunday. LREF median 700-mb
winds exceed 60 knots at KCDR and KAIA Sunday morning, but there
is some uncertainty in how far to the west this feature will
spread. Subsidence looks decent enough to warrant spreading the
High Wind Watch to Niobrara county and the northern Nebraska
panhandle. If the 700-mb jet begins to appear a little stronger
on its southern/western flank, this may need to be expanded into
the southern NE panhandle and possibly other portions of
southeast Wyoming.

We can say with reasonably high confidence that we don`t expect high
winds anywhere in the forecast area Sunday night into Monday
morning. This probably won`t last all that long, but we will be able
to enjoy at least a short break from the wind. Concurrent with this
will be another weak vort-max diving down aloft in northwest flow
while a surface high pushes up against the mountains. Models are
showing modest frontogenesis and some decent moisture overrunning
the boundary Sunday night into Monday morning. The ceiling for this
event is not particularly high, but there will be potential for some
light snow mainly inside a Laramie/Wheatland/Kimball triangle.
Cheyenne, for example, has about a 50% chance for a dusting of snow,
and about a 20% chance for 1" of snow at this time. We will need to
monitor this potential in the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

Warm air advection will resume Monday PM into Tuesday between
shortwave troughs. This will likely produce another round of High
Winds in the wind prone areas as pressure falls over the Plains. The
usual gap wind areas have a 60 to 80% chance for high winds Monday
night into Tuesday. We should also see temperatures briefly warm
above seasonal averages Tuesday with widespread breezy to windy
conditions.

After Tuesday, forecast confidence decreases considerably due to
divergence in the ensemble suite. On Wednesday into Thursday, there
is reasonable confidence in another clipper system moving through,
knocking down temperatures, and bringing perhaps another chance for
some very light snow. However, timing differences result in a fairly
large spread in forecast highs on these days. This spread gets even
worse on Friday into next weekend. Models are in good agreement
showing the upper level ridge over the western CONUS beginning to
break down during this time period, allowing Pacific moisture back
into the northwest CONUS. At the same time, a strong arctic surface
high will push southward into the northern Plains. While ensembles
are in agreement on this general pattern, there are differences in
where the moist jet stream sets up, and how far south the arctic
high pressure can push. This results in a huge spread in forecast
highs for Friday and Saturday. The spread between the 25th and 75
percentile high temperature forecast is 20 to 25F both days.
Currently, about 20% of ensemble members are clustered into a camp
pushing both of these features into the I-80 corridor. This scenario
would be the coldest (highs in the teens and 20s Friday and
Saturday) along with the snowiest. Another 20% are clustered into a
scenario that keeps the ridge fairly strong over the western CONUS,
keeping the Pacific jet off to our north and the arctic high at bay.
In this case, we could expect highs in the 40s to even 50s, along
with likely more chances for high winds. The remaining 60% of
ensemble members are somewhere in the middle, which would likely
mean a challenging forecast even at short lead times with an arctic
frontal boundary stalling somewhere over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1034 AM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

Skies look to be mostly clear through the night. There might be
some high based clouds moving through the mountains tonight into
the early morning but VFR conditions are expected to through the
TAF period. A low level jet looks to setup overnight around
2,000ft after 00z and continue through 12z tomorrow. Peak winds
look to be around 40 to 50 kts.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for WYZ102.
     High Wind Warning until noon MST today for WYZ110-116>119.
     High Wind Watch from 5 PM MST this afternoon through Sunday
     morning for WYZ106.
     High Wind Watch from 5 PM MST this afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for WYZ110-116.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ434>437.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for NEZ002-003-095-096.
     High Wind Warning until noon MST today for NEZ020-054-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MM