Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

899
FXUS65 KCYS 081151
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
550 AM MDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early morning showers and thunderstorms possible today, mainly
  across southeast Wyoming. Another chance of thunderstorms
  expected Saturday.

- Mostly dry and warmer weather will prevail for Sunday through
  Thursday, with breezy conditions in the afternoons and
  evenings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Short term forecast is on track early this morning with a pretty
good coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms continuing
to rapidly push southeast over and just west of the I-25
corridor. Multiple lines of showers will continue to develop
ahead of the weak trough axis as it pushes into the I-80
corridor over the next few hours. This slow moving upper level
disturbance, which hasn`t quite moved into southeast Wyoming
yet, will take it`s time moving into the northern Front
Range...before it ejects east later this morning. Expect
rainfall to quickly dissipate between 6 and 9 AM. Before that,
some pretty good rainfall rates have been observed with this
activity with upstream mesonet sensors showing a quick 0.25
inches of rainfall. Expect clearing skies by mid to late morning
with temperatures near or slightly above average for early May.
Also, added some fog for portions of the Laramie Range and the
more sheltered valleys west of the Laramie Range early this
morning.

Northwest flow aloft will continue today behind the upper level
disturbance as it digs southeast into the central plains. A few
models show some rain shower activity developing along the
Laramie Range during the afternoon, but not as many as
yesterday. The ECMWF continues showing widely scattered showers
over the I-80 corridor and the Laramie Range. However, most
model guidance and GFS & NAM soundings keeps things dry with
soundings showing an elevated temperature inversion/CAP around
600mb with a pretty dry boundary layer. Kept POP around 10 to 15
percent for now and will see how quick we dry out late this
morning and this afternoon.

For the weekend...all models show a transitory short-wave ridge
quickly moving southeast across the area early Saturday morning
before the next upper level trough digs southeast in northwest
flow aloft. This trough appears stronger than the one this
morning/late Thursday, and will have a surface and midlevel cold
front which is forecast to push across the high plains Saturday
afternoon. Expect scattered to numerous showers and possibly
scattered thunderstorms to form from north to south during the
day, starting off in east central Wyoming and the northern
Nebraska panhandle earlier in the day, with activity impacting
the I-80 corridor by mid to late Saturday afternoon. There is
some pretty good forcing with this feature, so will need to keep
an eye on some stronger thunderstorms forming east of the I-25
corridor with CAPE values nearing 800 to 1000 j/kg. It looks a
bit too dry for strong thunderstorms west of the Laramie Range,
but will continue to monitor the potential for stronger wind
gusts associated with convection. Continued to keep POP between
40 to 70 percent with scattered to numerous coverage expected.
Expect some of this activity, especially along the I-80
corridor, to linger well into the evening hours Saturday night.

For Sunday, all models show a drying trend as the fast moving
upper level trough axis slides southeast into the southern
plains. Upper level ridge axis across the Great Basin region is
forecast to nudge eastward into Wyoming and Colorado, resulting
in a drier airmass and increasing temperatures at the surface
and aloft. Sunday afternoon will be pleasant with highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s for most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Monday...The next shortwave trough aloft moves across eastern
Montana and the Dakotas, sending its associated cold front into
northeast Wyoming and perhaps our far northern counties from Douglas
to Chadron in the afternoon. Still though, even with cold frontal
forcing, dry conditions should prevail due to dry low and mid
levels. Moderate confidence in breezy to windy conditions as the low
and mid level gradients strengthen for Monday afternoon. Prefrontal
lifting and 700 mb temperatures near 12 Celsius will produce summer
like maximums in the upper 70s to near 90 degrees.

Tuesday...Brisk northwest flow continues, and dry conditions remain
with scarce low and mid level moisture availability. Cooler
temperatures in the post cold frontal sector as upslope north and
northeast winds develop.

Wednesday...Another warming trend ensues as 700 mb temperatures
reach 14 Celsius, yielding highs in the upper 70s to near 90
degrees. The dry northwest flow aloft prevails, and with warm mid
level temperatures producing enough convective inhibition, no
showers or thunderstorms are anticipated.

Thursday...The ridge aloft moves further east over western Wyoming.
Some pseudo like monsoonal moisture will affect western Wyoming and
western Colorado, though it looks likely the scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be mainly west of our forecast area.
Slightly cooler temperatures due to a small drop in 700 mb
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Upper level disturbance currently moving southeast across the area
and into Colorado early this morning. Improving conditions and
decreasing cloudiness expected by 15z with any remnant rain showers
ending.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail across the area
over the next 24 hours in between weather systems. West to northwest
winds will occasionally gust around 25 knots late this morning and
this afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...TJT