Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

102
FXUS65 KCYS 300508
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1108 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern will continue into the weekend
  with daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and
  thunderstorms.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms could be possible on Saturday.
  Storms may produce damaging winds and large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 231 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Much of the low-level moisture we woke up to this morning has mixed
out, as dewpoints across SE Wyoming have dropped into the 40s east
of the Laramie Range thanks to heating/insolation. At the time of
this discussion, sites across the Nebraska Panhandle are seeing
surface dewpoints in the mid-50s and are beginning to see shallow
cumulus develop based on visible satellite imagery. SPC Mesoanalysis
currently shows MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/Kg east of the I-25 corridor
with some deeper reflectivity returns along and just north of the
Cheyenne Ridge. However with effective bulk shear of around 20
knots, supercells today are unlikely and storms are expected to be
rather short-lived. With plenty of near-surface vorticity combined
with 0-3 km lapse rates of 9.5 degC/km (nearly dry adiabatic), would
not be surprised to see a landspout tornado occur if a developing
updraft manages to sit atop a localized, terrain-induced boundary
under prevailing SE flow in the lee of the Cheyenne Ridge.
Otherwise, the main hazards with any stronger thunderstorms will be
gusty winds of 50-60 knots, small hail, and frequent lightning. We
should see most of the shower and thunderstorm activity move east of
Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle by 06Z as any rain-cooled air and
nocturnal cooling after sunset should erode most of our instability.


GOES-19 mid-level water vapor imagery is showing a robust negatively-
tilted shortwave trough located over the Desert Southwest that is
ejecting north and east and will become the main feature of interest
on Saturday, particularly for the Nebraska Panhandle, hence the
Storm Prediction Center placing much of Dawes County in a Day 2
slight risk for severe weather. A 45 knot 500 mb speed maximum is
expected to pivot around the base of the wave located over SE
Wyoming and Western Nebraska on Saturday afternoon, providing a
source for deep-layer vertical wind shear and the potential for
organized deep convection. Low-level theta-e advection will take
place during the day across the eastern Nebraska Panhandle ahead of
a weak dryline, with the strongest isodrosothermal gradient located
south of the Kansas-Nebraska border. In the warm sector, surface
dewpoints are expected to remain in the mid-50s per high resolution
ensemble guidance with temperatures expected to reach the upper 70s
to low 80s. The upstream shortwave trough is expected to initiate
showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain around 18-20Z
before moving NE over lower elevations. With an effective bulk wind
difference of 25-30 knots combined with 1500-2000 J/Kg MLCAPE in the
warm sector, supercells remain possible across the Nebraska
Panhandle late afternoon into the evening hours. Forecast soundings
indicate LCLs around 1500m across the northern Nebraska Panhandle,
which is well within the realm (near the 50th percentile) of tornado
climatology. The main failure mode for tornadoes tomorrow will be
the lack of low-level shear, as 850 mb flow remains weak around 10-
15 knots before gradually ramping up to 20 knots after 03Z with the
onset of a weak low-level jet, however storms look to be elevated at
this time, therefore limiting the tornado threat. The main threats
tomorrow will be large hail and damaging winds, especially with any
sustained rotating updrafts where hail has a longer residence time
within the cloud (to allow for maximum accretion and growth). Storms
should begin to exit the Nebraska Panhandle after 06Z Sunday.

Focus shifts to high winds for our wind-prone areas of Wyoming late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. 700 mb cross-barrier flow
increases to 50 knots overnight, with in-house guidance continuing
to show Arlington with 65% probabilities of exceeding high wind
criteria into Sunday morning, with Bordeaux at about 40%. Model
cross-sections show a mountain-top stable layer with strong downward
omega signatures in the lee of the Snowy and Laramie Ranges, so
these probabilities for high winds seem appropriate at this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

The long term will remain as unsettled as the short term with near
daily chances of precipitation through at least mid-week. With
the upper-level trough responsible for Saturday`s storm expected
to eject northeastward out if the area Sunday, precipitation
chances on Sunday will be rather slim. Lingering showers could
be possible for the northern Wyoming and Nebraska zones of the
forecast area as the system ejects into the Dakotas, but even
these chances look rather slim.

Precipitation chances will increase for the start of the work week
as the upper-level trough/low begins to retrograde back towards the
northwest. The rough location of the low over the Montana/Canada
border, will allow the CWA to once again tap into moisture from the
Gulf. Moisture-rich mid-level southerly flow will usher in the
necessary humidity to fuel storm develop during the afternoon and
evening. Lift will come in the form of vorticity maxes streaming
through the area from the trough to the north, as well as another
trough the enters the picture during the middle of next week. At
this point, global models seem fairly consistent on showing daily
storm chances east of the Laramie Range Monday through Thursday. A
quick look at model soundings for areas east of the Laramie Range
show moderate amounts of CAPE each afternoon as well as decent shear
most days. As a result, severe weather cannot be ruled out each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Isolated showers are slowly coming to an end tonight across
southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. KCDR and KBFF will
likely see showers and storms in the vicinity for the next 1 to
2 hours, while showers periodically move through KRWL and KLAR
over the next few hours. Gusty winds are anticipated in and
around any shower or storm that is ongoing. Once storms pass,
lighter winds return to most terminals, with low ceilings likely
moving in to KBFF, KSNY, and KAIA for the overnight hours.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms return for the
afternoon, with another round of gusty winds and large hail
possible.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...AM