Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

431
FXUS65 KCYS 130945
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
245 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of light rain and snow showers is expected
  Friday afternoon and evening.

- While temperatures will remain above seasonal averages for
  much of the week ahead, there will be occasional chances for
  light precipitation.

- Widespread high winds and elevated grassland fire danger are
  possible Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Water vapor shows some moisture still pushing in from the Pacific.
The mid level trough will start to push through our portion of
the Intermountain west late this morning allowing for more
synoptic lift of this increased moisture. RAP guidance still
shows some overrunning warm air advection kicking up again
during the early afternoon hours, spreading light shower
activity over Laramie and southern Albany counties, and into the
southern Nebraska panhandle. For areas east of I-25 this will
come down and stay as rain while areas near 7,000 like Laramie
and Rawlins may see more of a rain/snow mix. The 00z run of the
HREF has an avg of 50-100 joules of CAPE which may create a
rumble of thunder or two. Almost all of the Hi-res guidance has
the showers moving eastward past the I-25 corridor in the
afternoon and dissipating around Kimball. So the pops reflect
that same timeline. I kept low pops over Sidney in case the
showers linger or make it to Sidney. I suspect today will just
be a repeat of yesterday as far as timing for rain goes.

This weekend will be dry as a temporary upper level ridge sets up
over the Intermountain West. The GFS went slightly warmer with the
700mb temperatures as peak temperatures reach a +4C as the Apex
crosses over us Sunday afternoon. This will translate into
temperatures being in the upper 40`s to low 50`s west of I-25 in the
mountains and upper 50`s to mid 60`s east of I-25. There will be a
dry airmass over us while under this ridge causing our RH values to
drop into the teens East of I-25. Just to our north there will be a
weak transient shortwave that pushes past our ridge. This will allow
the pressure gradient to compress just a touch to give us some
breezy conditions. The combination of low precipitation this season,
RH in the teens, and breezy winds raises some Fire weather concerns
as we could reach criteria for majority of the forecast area east of
I-25.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 410 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

A few highlights that we are monitoring in the long term are the
possible fire weather conditions this weekend, of which could be
critical, and a potential high wind event Tuesday in our typical
wind prones across southeast Wyoming. Lets start out looking at the
synoptic setup, upper level ridging in place over the region will
hold firm through at least Monday morning while a trough moves
onshore across the West Coast. Eventually, this trough will trek
east and make it to our doorstep late Monday. As it does so, the
upper level flow at 500mb becomes southwesterly, bringing in a surge
of moisture that will increase the threat of precipitation across
the CWA Tuesday into Wednesday. Thereafter, guidance diverges a bit
with the placement and movement of this trough for the remainder of
the extended period. Now, lets drop a bit to the 700mb level and
talk about the potential for a high wind event Tuesday, with the
stronger winds continuing into Wednesday. So, by Tuesday afternoon,
a 60 knot jet will be firmly in place over the CWA along with ample
subsidence (negative Omega(GFS)) that will aid in mixing some of
these winds down to the surface. In-house guidance decreased the
probability of high winds a bit from previous runs, but still
maintains a 20-40 percent chance. Ensembles have probs in the 20-30
percent range for gusts to exceed 55 mph, which we have in the
current forecast. Will the Nebraska Panhandle get into the mix, yep,
expect some of the stronger winds to trickle into the region, but
should stay below the high wind threshold.

The other thing that is on our radar, no pun, and may be of more
concern in the long term is the possibility of critical fire weather
conditions this weekend. Even though we may not meet our typical
criteria when issuing a Red Flag Warning, but elements are coming
together to bring this threat. With the lack of any measurable
snowfall, or any precipitation as a matter of fact, there is an
abundance of dry fuels east of the I-25 corridor. This coupled with
breezy conditions along with minimum RH values down near 15%, makes
for a perfect set up for grassland fire concerns. So, there may be
the need for Red Flag Warnings over the weekend, especially on
Sunday, for most of the fire weather zones east of I-25.

Temperatures in the extended will start off mild with 700mb temps in
the +2 to +4 degrees C range through Monday, which translates to 50s
west of I-25 and 60s to the east, warmest across the Nebraska
Panhandle. As they say, all good things must come to an end and
temperatures are no different, rounding out the long term, 700mb
temps cool to -10 degrees C and so does surface temps with highs
only topping out in the mid 30s to mid 40s, cooler west of I-25.
Lows will follow a similar pattern, starting out in the low 30s,
cooling each night with lows dipping into the teens by the end of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1000 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Mostly calm overnight with light and variable winds expected at
all terminals. KRWL may see an isolated snow shower over the
next few hours, potentially dropping the terminal into the MVFR
category. Patchy fog and low ceilings may stick around KRWL
through the morning hours, with improving conditions expected by
17Z. All other terminals will see VFR conditions, but mostly
cloudy skies throughout the day.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...AM