Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

374
FXUS65 KCYS 020539
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1139 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the end
  of the work week.

- Afternoon and evening storms will be possible most days
  through the end of the week. A few strong to severe storms
  will be possible.

- Somewhat cooler, though comfortable, temperatures will occur
  for our bisesquicentennial, the 250th anniversary of our
  country on Independence Day, then a slow warming trend
  develops again for Sunday through Tuesday.

- Adequate moisture in the low and mid levels will help produce
  isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
  each day from Saturday through Tuesday, primarily in the deeper
  moisture east of Interstate 25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Over the next several days we`ll see a very similar pattern
daily as evening thunderstorms, mostly for our Nebraska
Panhandle zones and possibly our northern zones, will be
possible, alongside a marginal risk at a storm or two becoming
strong to severe, but otherwise warm and dry bringing elevated
fire weather concerns.

The overall weather pattern should look largely similar each
day, with ridging deepening across the Southeast US, and
troughing over the Western US with a daily shortwave riding
between these features. This consistent pattern should give us
similar weather conditions through the end of the week, as highs
on Thursday increase around 3-5 degrees with 80`s west of the
Laramie Range and 80`s to 90`s to the east. While generally dry
conditons will be present as RH values mostly sit in the teens,
our far eastern counties in the Nebraska Panhandle should see
some moisture thanks to southerly to southeasterly flow, but it
will be marginal overall with daytime RH values still down into
the low to mid 20`s. This moisture alongside the daily
shortwaves will fuel thunderstorm chances, mostly in the
Panhandle, though our northern zones in east-central Wyoming
could also see some grazing showers or storms.

Each round of storms does present a marginal risk of strong to
severe activity with hail and/or winds the primary hazards.
A quick increase in shear this evening may help to fuel storms,
but instability will be meager, though high resolution guidance
has been indicating a stronger storm or two forming along the
I-80 corridor near Sidney. Into Thursday we should see
instability increase with around 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE present,
but shear will wane meaning storms may struggle to remain
sustained or could be pulsing in nature. Friday the best
instability should shift eastwards just outside of the area, but
the nocturnal jet kicking up may help to sustain any storms
that can pop up.

Finally, the aforementioned dry conditions will keep our fire
weather conditions elevated, but thankfully surface winds are
not expected to be quite strong enough to fuel critical status.
The one exception could be our western zones, but as of today
fuels remain in the green based on partner feedback. This likely
won`t be lasting much longer however with no precipitation
expected anytime soon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Independence Day...The flow aloft remains westerly, and with decent
moisture in the 850-500 mb layer, and individual layers, combined
with low level convergence east of I-25, we anticipate seeing
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
east of I-25 in the afternoon, and over western Nebraska in the
evening. All in all, the 250th anniversary of our country should see
quite pleasant weather conditions across southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska, with minimal late day showers and thunderstorms,
near perfect for outdoor activities. Somewhat cooler for the holiday
due to more cloud cover and in a post cold frontal airmass, with
maximum temperatures in the 80s, near perfect for the
bisesquicentennial, 250th anniversary of our country`s birth. A
decent 850/700 mb theta-e ridge axis will extend across western
Nebraska, so there is a possibility of isolated strong thunderstorms
across the southern Nebraska Panhandle where CAPES of 2000 to 3000
J/kg will occur, though 0 to 6 km bulk shear values near 25 knots
will somewhat mitigate the storms severity.

Evening temperatures will be quite pleasant on Independence Day with
readings

Sunday...With warm temperatures aloft, the CIN, convective
inhibition, will increase markedly with 700 mb temperatures near 17
Celsius, limiting convective potential, and allowing for at best,
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
along and east of I-25. Another warming trend begins based on 700 mb
temperature trends.

Monday-Wednesday...Similar synoptic pattern to Sunday, with decent
southerly low level moisture advecting northward into our counties,
especially east of I-25, though warm temperature aloft will produce
enough convective inhibition, CIN, to limit afternoon and evening
thunderstorms to isolated to widely scattered coverage. Temperatures
will continue their warming trend based on 700 mb temperatures and
the paucity, limited amount, of cloud cover. Slightly cooler on
Wednesday due to an increase in mid and high level cloudiness.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The HRRR and NAM nest are too excited about these storms
intensity and progression. Meaning there is not a lot of
confidence in severe thunderstorms tonight through tomorrow
morning right now. The current storms are tracking to go right
over Kimball and move northeast and end up in between KAIA and
KSNY for VCTS. There is also a little shower popping up just
southwest of KCYS that may give us some light rain and a weak
thunderstorm. The low level jet looks to kick in overnight as
this shortwave lifts to the Northeast. Winds are likely to
variable at 10 to 15 knots but I can`t put anything over 6 knots
without a TSRA with it.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MM