Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

599
FXUS65 KCYS 090546
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1145 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected on
  Saturday. An isolated severe storm could be possible.

- Mostly dry and warmer weather will prevail for Sunday through
  Thursday, with breezy conditions in the afternoons and
  evenings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

A quiet afternoon continues across the area with seasonably warm
temperatures and fair weather cumulus. A few light pop up showers
are moving into the northern Nebraska panhandle from South Dakota,
but given the dry low-levels, not more than a sprinkle is expected.
Any showers will dissipate by this evening, leading to an uneventful
overnight.

An upper-level shortwave will push into the CWA on Saturday,
bringing precipitation chances and a cool front with it. The front
will likely move across the forecast area during the afternoon,
providing lift for storms to develop. A majority of storms will not
be severe, however an isolated severe storm could be possible,
mainly east of the Interstate 25 corridor. The environment here
could support hail with MUCAPE up to 800 J/kg, as well as
severe wind gusts with DCAPE nearing 1000 J/kg. PWATs with this
system look pretty good so locations that do receive one of the
scattered storms are likely to see accumulating precipitation.
Storms will move from northwest to southeast across the CWA,
with storms entering the forecast area by the afternoon. Storms
will move across the area, reaching the southern half of the
forecast area by mid to late afternoon. Most storm activity will
dissipate after the evening hours, with a few lingering showers
possible through midnight.

A warming and drying trend is expected for Sunday as the upper-level
shortwave moves out and is replaced by a strong ridge. Warmer and
dryer air will move in aloft, leading to a mostly sunny day for
Mother`s Day. Temperatures will be near average in the 60s and 70s
with minimal chances for precipitation. A pleasant day to be
outside!

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Sunday night/Monday...The next shortwave trough aloft moves across
eastern Montana and the Dakotas, sending its associated cold front
into southeast Montana. Dry conditions should prevail due to dry low
and mid levels. Moderate confidence in breezy to windy conditions as
the low and mid level gradients strengthen for Monday afternoon.
Prefrontal lifting and 700 mb temperatures near 13 Celsius will
produce summer like maximums.

Tuesday...Brisk northwest flow aloft continues, and dry conditions
remain with scarce low and mid level moisture availability. Cooler
temperatures in the post cold frontal sector as upslope north and
northeast winds develop.

Wednesday...Another warming trend ensues as 700 mb temperatures
reach 14 Celsius, yielding highs in the upper 70s to near 90
degrees. The dry northwest flow aloft prevails, and with warm mid
level temperatures producing enough convective inhibition, also
known as CIN, no showers or thunderstorms are anticipated.

Thursday...The ridge aloft moves further east over western Wyoming.
Some pseudo like monsoonal moisture will affect Wyoming and
Colorado, and there is a moderate likelihood that isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
develop in a swath from Chadron to Cheyenne, across much of the
forecast area. Model solutions have been changing, lowering
confidence, so will keep it dry for now to blend in with our
neighboring offices at Denver/Boulder, Grand Junction, Riverton,
Rapid City and North Platte, though this day promises hope for some
beneficial rainfall.

Friday...Negatively tilted and fast moving shortwave trough aloft
progged to move across Wyoming, sending a Pacific origin cold front
to a Lusk to Cheyenne line by late afternoon. This trough aloft will
be moisture scant, thus only isolated showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Generally, VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for most
of this TAF period. However, there will be the threat of strong to
severe thunderstorms by 18Z Saturday. These storms will primarily be
wind producers along with bringing ample lightning. Hail is not out
of the realm of possibility, but we are not expecting severe hail.
So, expect VIS and CIGs to briefly dip if a storm comes close to or
goes over a terminal. Otherwise, -SHRA will impact most of the
sites, reducing VIS ever so slightly for most of the day.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RZ