Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

249
FXUS65 KCYS 111130
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
530 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A widespread, locally damaging wind event is still on track
  for Thursday. Widespread gusts of 60 to 80 mph are possible,
  with potential for localized gusts up to 100 mph in the wind
  prone areas across southeast Wyoming.

- Very strong winds are expected to continue through at least
  Saturday ahead of the next chance for precipitation Saturday
  into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Some lingering snow showers will be possible this morning as the
upper-level trough makes its way eastward into the center of the
country. An additional dusting of snow will be possible, but
accumulations are not likely. Behind the trough, temperatures will
be much cooler compared to the last few days. 700 mb temperatures
will be around -10C, leading to high temperatures in the 30s and 40s
despite clearing skies during the afternoon. Snow cover will also
contribute to the cooler high temperatures. The rest of the daytime
will be relatively uneventful aside from some breezy conditions.
Heading into Wednesday night, the 250 mb jet will move into the CWA,
with winds increasing and high winds likely beginning overnight for
much of southeast Wyoming.

Thursday will mark the start of a prolonged high wind event, with
the strongest winds also expected during the day. High Wind Watches
are in place for most of the CWA, with the exception of the Sierra
Madre and Snowy Ranges as well as southwest Carbon County.
Confidence is high in this being a widespread and impactful high
wind event, so upgrades to the High Wind Watches are extremely
likely. The powerful upper-level jet in the vicinity of the CWA will
contribute to the strong winds, but a strong MSLP gradient will also
add to the intensity. One of the most impressive parameters
continues to be the CAG to CPR height gradients. Both the 850 and
700 mb height gradients will max out over 100 meters Thursday
morning, which is some of the highest values seen in recent memory.
Values like these will lead to an unprecedented high wind event.
Unsurprisingly, these hefty gradients will lead to
exceptionally strong winds aloft. The GFS has consistently shown
700 mb winds over 80 kts for the last few days, with the most
recent 00Z run of the GFS showing 90 kt winds over the South
Laramie Range. Remarkably strong subsidence will also be present
over the typical wind prones that also extend into the
Interstate 25 corridor. Combined with a textbook mountain wave
signature, these winds should have no problem making it down to
the surface. Strongest wind gusts are expected in the wind prone
areas of southeast Wyoming. 80 to 90 MPH gusts are likely in
the Arlington, Bordeaux, Coleman, and South Laramie Range and
foothills areas. Cannot rule out occasional gusts to 100 MPH in
these areas as well as the North Laramie Range. Outside of the
wind prones, 80 MPH wind gusts will be possible in much of
southeast Wyoming. Wind gusts in excess of 70 MPH will also be
likely in the Nebraska panhandle. Winds will ease Thursday
evening as a cold front moves across the area. Winds will turn
out of the north, effectively shutting off high winds in far
eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle. Areas along the
Interstate 25 corridor and westward will not be as lucky as the
front gets caught along the Laramie Range. High winds will
likely continue in these areas, but will be weaker than winds
during the day Thursday.

High winds will continue into Friday and Saturday for the southeast
Wyoming wind prones and adjacent areas. Gradients will stay steep
through Saturday with winds aloft consistently staying above 65 kts.
Subsidence also remains strong, helping these winds get down to the
surface. High Wind Watches for these areas remain in place through
Saturday evening. Winds will eventually weaken once a strong cold
front moves across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The past several runs of guidance have trended upward with the
chances for precipitation from Saturday night through Sunday.
The potent Pacific jet stream will carry a weak trough/vort max
into the PACNW coast on Friday into Saturday, which will quickly
traverse the Rockies and deepen as it heads toward the high
plains. Ensemble forecast guidance has come into better
agreement with regard to a strong cold front surging southward
with this system late on Saturday into Sunday, which will affect
the entire northern Rockies/High Plains region. As this front
dives southward and the aforementioned trough moves in from the
northwest, forecast soundings show increasing saturation in the
boundary layer on Saturday night with somewhat favorable upslope
northerly and possibly northeasterly flow for most of the
Laramie and Snowy ranges as well as the eastern high plains.
Total QPF averages from the GEFS particularly have increased,
whereas ECMWF ensemble guidance averages remain a bit lower.
Still, there is increasing confidence that a light snow event
may affect much of the area on Saturday night through Sunday in
a very cold, post-frontal airmass. Advisory-level accumulations
may be in the works for both the higher terrain and possibly
areas along and east of I-25. Very high confidence exists in
below-average temperatures for Sunday, possibly lasting into
early next week before temperatures rebound.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Snow has mostly tapered off this morning with most terminals
reporting no weather. Light snow showers will continue around KCYS
through about mid-morning. Low CIGs linger across the Nebraska
panhandle but should lift by mid-morning as well. The rest of the
day will feature minimal aviation concerns aside from some
gusty winds. Wind gusts over 30 kts will be possible at all
terminals this afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Saturday evening for
     WYZ101-103>107-109-113-115>118.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for WYZ102-108-119.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM MDT this morning for WYZ110-
     113-114-116.
     High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday evening for
     WYZ110.
NE...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...SF