Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

462
FXUS65 KCYS 251200
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
600 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool but seasonable temperatures will continue with a warming
  trend expected for the weekend.

- A brief drying trend expected for the weekend, ahead of a
  potential strong Pacific storm system moving into the Front
  Range early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Current observations across the region show that the low clouds
and fog are slow to develop over the eastern plains at 100 AM
with several sites reported SCT to occasionally BKN cloud cover
at 3000 feet. Short range models and ensembles have caught onto
this trend and are now showing low clouds and fog developing
closer to sunrise across much of the area along with a more
patchy coverage of fog. Models show hardly any fog developing
north of the North Platte River valley, so may need to remove
that from the forecast. For now, lowered most of the coverage to
patchy and ended it around 800 to 1000 AM. Upslope winds have
been slow to develop ahead of the subtropical upper level
disturbance. Otherwise, kept widely scattered showers and a some
rumbles of thunder along the I-80 corridor early this morning
with KCYS and KFTG radar loop showing returns increasing across
the mountains in northern Colorado.

For Friday, models continue to show a more organized band of
showers and thunderstorms developing near the mountains around
noon and progressing eastward across the eastern plains through
the afternoon and evening hours. This activity looks to be
colocated with the upper level trough/disturbance axis ejecting
northeast across the area. Tricky coverage and intensity
forecast for today with models showing a good chance at some
locally higher QPF amounts. However, model soundings show some
lingering CIN east of the Laramie Range and especially over
western Nebraska this afternoon and evening which may limited
thunderstorm activity and heavy rainfall. Kept POP peaking at
around 300 to 500 PM (around 50 percent) and gradually tapered
them down to 30 percent by this evening from west to east. Not
the best lapse rates on area soundings, but there is certainly
long/skinny CAPE profiles, which suggest locally heavy
rainfall. With ample cloud cover today, lowered high
temperatures a few degrees with afternoon into the mid 60s to
the low 70s.

Mid to upper level flow veers into the west on Saturday allowing
drier air to finally push into the region as dewpoints lower
into the mid 30s to mid 40s. Little to no forcing present with
low CAPE, so kept POP below 10 percent even though some high res
CAMS show some activity trying to develop over Carbon and Albany
counties late in the afternoon. Pleasant day expected with highs
climbing into the mid 70s to mid 80s, warmest below elevations
of 5000 feet. Unseasonably mild Saturday night with lows mostly
in the 50s across the eastern plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Long term starts quiet but then we`ll see a good shot of fall
weather to start the next work week, giving us cooler
temperatures and widespread precipitation followed by a dryout
and warming period into the middle of the week. Sunday morning
at least starts out relatively quiet and dry as we`ll see
afternoon temperatures warm in the mid 70`s to mid 80`s for the
day. But an incoming shortwave along with increasing moisture
should help to usher in a few late evening and overnight showers
or storms prior to the more eventful Monday and Tuesday. The
work week then starts out with a surface cold front approaching
the region and moving across into Tuesday, while deep upper
level troughing from the Pacific moves in and across the region.
This system brings a nice influx of moisture, with PWAT values
approaching 170-200% of normal. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms start to overspread the region into the early
afternoon hours, but guaranteed moisture encompassing most of
our forecast area occurs during the evening into the overnight
hours through Tuesday morning. Initial activity could include
thunderstorms, with favorable lapse rates and marginal
instability alongside some stout bulk wind shear for our eastern
zones. Therefore, a few storms could be on the stronger side,
but with how much cloud cover and overspreading precipitation we
are expecting, this should be few and far between as of this
writing. Otherwise, widespread QPF looks both generous and
fairly plentiful, with most of our CWA seeing a tenth to a
quarter of an inch, with locally heavier totals in the strongest
downpours. Our mountain zones should be seeing around an inch
of QPF meanwhile, and overnight temperatures into Tuesday
morning will be approaching freezing, meaning they may see their
first snow (albeit light) of the season. Behind the cold front,
temperatures on Tuesday will sit around 5-8 degrees below
normal, giving us highs in the 50`s and 60`s. And then expect
chilly mornings through the rest of the forecast period, as low
temperatures bottom out in the 40`s, possibly even upper 30`s,
particularly if we can get any overnight clearing to allow for
even more cooling. We`ll be looking at similarly cool
temperatures into Wednesday as highs stay in the 60`s, to just
around 70`s, with another chance of precipitation as a shortwave
passes across with deep upper level troughing just to our north
as we end the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

A subtropical upper level disturbance is forecast to lift north and
then northeast across the region today. Morning low clouds and fog
will lift ahead of a line of showers and thunderstorms that will
quickly move across the eastern plains later this afternoon. Gusty
winds and brief heavy rainfall possible into this evening.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: Tricky low confidence LIFR forecast this
morning with low clouds and fog around the area. However, fog and
IFR conditions have been brief and intermittent at times prior to
12z with little sign of persistence, likely due to the light and
variable wind speeds. Kept forecast as is for KCYS, KSNY, KAIA, and
KBFF since confidence isn`t high enough to improve the overall
conditions quite yet. Confident enough to remove any mention of IFR
from KLAR and KCDR though, with fog likely not making it into those
locations. Otherwise, conditions will be slow to improve over KAIA
and KSNY with IFR conditions possible past 18z. Higher confidence
that a line of showers and thunderstorms will impact KLAR, KCYS, and
possibly KBFF and KSNY this afternoon through this evening. MVFR VIS
and CIGS possible with this activity along with gusty winds and
brief heavy rainfall.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...TJT