Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

711
FXUS65 KCYS 250534
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1134 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm temperatures will return through the area through
  Wednesday with widespread record highs expected Wednesday
  afternoon.

- Marginally high winds are possible (30 to 60% chance) for the
  wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming today and Wednesday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather continues through Wednesday
  and possibly beyond. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for
  much of the area for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Limited changes to the short-term forecast period today with gusty
westerly winds present across most of southeast Wyoming.
Surface observations in the north Snowy Range foothills and I-80
summit region prompted an upgrade to a High Wind Warning for both of
these forecast zones. Along the I-80 summit, the High Wind Warning
will last until 9pm tonight. Short-term high-resolution guidance has
not picked up on this high wind event very well at all. The logic
used for timing in this event is more based on when surface winds
are expected to slightly decouple from the mean flow, thus greatly
reducing the threat of 50 knot winds along the I-80 summit. Farther
west, the North Snowy Range foothills have seen a few gusts over 50
knots this afternoon along I-80. The upgrade to a High Wind Warning
will last through the previous Watch period, ending at 18z on
Wednesday. Here, forecast guidance including in-house machine
learning supports around a 50% chance of high wind thresholds
through tomorrow morning.

The previous forecast discussion detailing the record warmth and
fire weather threats for Wednesday are as follows:

Expect another mild night tonight (into Wednesday morning) as cloud
cover clears, but light to moderate westerly flow prevents the
development of a shallow inversion. This will set the stage for
another day of unprecedented spring warmth on Wednesday. The ridge
strength will peak aloft and strong warm air advection is expected
ahead of an approaching upper level shortwave. 700-mb temperatures
will crest between +10 and +14C, which easily exceeds the
climatological maximum per the NAEFS mean. The ECWMF extreme
forecast index of surface maximum temperature is hovering around
0.99 for most of the area, indicating high confidence in an
anomalous warm event. In fact, the current official forecast
reflects highs similar to Saturday, pushing the upper 70s in Rawlins
and Laramie, and the 80s to low 90s along and east of I-25. All long
term forecast sites are forecast to smash daily record highs, most
by close to 10 degrees. Prior to last week, Wednesday would be an
easy forecast for monthly record highs too, but values will be
fairly close to the new monthly records just set on Saturday.

Record warmth combined with continued westerly winds across the area
will boost fire weather concerns once again. While we will have a
little more moisture present than last week`s warm spell, RH is
still expected to drop to 10 to 15% along and east of the Laramie
Range Wednesday. As a result, there is high confidence in widespread
critical fire weather conditions along and east of I-25. Further
west, the slightly cooler temperatures reduces confidence somewhat,
but it was still high enough to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch.
Wildfire will spread rapidly under these conditions.

The next weather concern in the short term will be the shortwave
trough passing to our north Wednesday evening. This feature will
kick off upper level positive theta-e advection, moistening the
upper atmosphere during the afternoon and evening hours. While low-
level moisture will be highly limited, there should be enough above
the very deep, well-mixed boundary layer to kick off some showers
around mid-afternoon. This area will be mainly concentrated east of
the Laramie Range, and south of a Wheatland to Alliance line
(roughly). While instability forecasts are not terribly impressive,
100 to 300 J/kg of CAPE may be enough to produce some isolated
lightning. The probability of lightning in the vicinity of a given
location is only around 10%, but this is still concerning due to the
very dry boundary layer. This could help support a few dry
microbursts with gusty and erratic winds at the surface. Wetting
rains are unfortunately quite unlikely (less than 10% probability)
with these showers continuing into Wednesday evening.

---

Finally, cooler weather with easterly post-frontal upslope flow will
move in on Thursday behind a cold front passage. Thick low- level
cloud cover is likely on Thursday through Friday with forecast
soundings showing near-saturation in the lowest few thousand feet.
Low clouds and possibly fog in the Laramie Range, as well as some
light drizzle/snow showers in the higher elevations, are all
possible on Thursday. Short-term guidance suggests the period of
time of most favorable moisture/upslope flow on Thursday evening
into Thursday night when a few hundredths of an inch of liquid are
possible, especially from Cheyenne westward into the southern
Laramie Range. By Friday morning, the base of the trough will pass
through and mid-level temps will bottom out. Given how anomalously
warm temperatures have been lately, it will feel quite chilly with
lows in the mid to upper 20s throughout southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska. However, these low temperatures are exactly
average for late March! Expect a similar story for afternoon
highs on Friday -low to mid 50s will feel chilly but in fact are
actually average for this time of year. Skies may eventually
scatter out on Friday afternoon, especially in the northern
portions of the CWA from Douglass through Lusk as well as in the
Nebraska Panhandle by sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- The weekend will be dry and mild. Increasing chances for showers
will occur for Monday and Tuesday as a weather disturbance and cold
front approach the forecast area.

Friday night-Saturday...West northwest flow aloft continues with a
decent warming trend as 700 mb temperatures rise to near 7 Celsius
on Saturday, yielding high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Dry with limited low and mid level moisture.

Sunday...The warming and dry trend continues as the flow aloft backs
to westerly, inducing surface trough development across our forecast
area. 700 mb temperatures near 9 Celsius will produce maximum
temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s.

Monday...Continued mild as the flow aloft backs to southwest. With
some low and mid level moisture, we may see isolated to widely
scattered late day showers.

Tuesday...As a shortwave trough aloft and its associated cold front
pass by the forecast area, high temperatures will decrease into the
60s to lower 70s. Looks like enough low and mid level moisture to
combine with frontal lifting to produce scattered showers, most
numerous near the Colorado state line.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Gusty winds will remain the primary focus for the next TAF
period. West winds will be occasionally gusty overnight at RWL
and LAR, and then pick up mid morning to the early afternoon at
other terminals. Look for gusts 30 to 40 knots in Wyoming, and
20 to 30 knots in Nebraska. There is a chance for a few showers
developing in western Nebraska Wednesday evening, which could
lead to locally gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for
     WYZ417>419-430>433.
     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for
     WYZ420>423.
     High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT Wednesday for WYZ110.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for
     NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MN