Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

676
FXUS65 KCYS 011105
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
505 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and unsettled weather will remain in place through
  Wednesday night with several chances for rain showers.

- Accumulating snow is expected for the higher mountains above
  9000 ft in elevation tonight through Wednesday evening.

- Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
  Wednesday afternoon and evening. A brief period of strong
  winds may occur along Interstate 80 behind this activity.

- After a brief warmup Thursday, another strong cold front will
  sweep through the area and bring additional chances for rain,
  snow, and high winds Thursday afternoon into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

An active period of weather is expected today through at least
Friday evening as multiple upper-level system push through the
Intermountain West. Starting with today, southwesterly flow aloft is
expected to turn southerly through the morning and early afternoon
hours as an upper-level, negatively tilted, shortwave lifts
northeast from southern Utah into northeastern Colorado then western
Nebraska. This system is expected to have a strong, westward
stacking with height, helping the system as a whole increase in
strength as it moves across the CONUS. Multiple lobes of 500mb
vorticity will eject out ahead of the incoming trough, leading to
favorable differential cyclonic vorticity advection and synoptic
lift throughout much of the atmosphere, especially with the CWA near
the exit of the trough where rising motion is favored. Southwesterly
flow at 700mb is expected to continue through the late mornings
hours before more westerly flow develops as a 700mb low attempts to
develop with the approaching system. A closed system at 700mb is
progged to develop by 00Z Thursday in most models, further
showcasing the increasing strength of this system. A stout Colorado
Low will develop off the Rocky Mountains in eastern Colorado this
afternoon and evening, leading to northwesterly flow across areas
east of the Laramie Range and colder air funneling down into the
region. Mountain precipitation has already begun across the Sierra
Madre and Snowy Ranges, but precipitation chances spread
northeastward through the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Precipitation is anticipated to start as rain across much of the
area as 700mb temperatures remain too warm for snow. Hires guidance
suggests meager CAPE across western portions of the region,
increasing confidence in an isolated thunderstorm or two this
afternoon with the strong dynamics at play. With this in mind,
beneficial precipitation is anticipated for much of the region,
though some models remain a touch high on forecast QPF. However,
NAEFS Mean Precipitable Water is above the 99th percentile this
afternoon, so good moisture is anticipated with this system. Most
locations will likely see anywhere between a 0.05 and 0.50in of
precipitation this afternoon, with the higher amounts likely
occurring under any thunderstorms that develop. Overcast skies will
remain today with temperatures likely warming into the low- to mid-
50s east of the Laramie Range and upper-40s to low-50s west. Winter
Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Sierra Madre and Snowy
ranges where 5 to 10 inches of additional snowfall is anticipated
through this evening.

A brief lull in precipitation is expected early Thursday morning
through the afternoon hours before precipitation chances start
increasing west to east. Upper-level flow will remain largely zonal
throughout the morning hours Thursday before the next upper-level
trough starts to move into the Intermountain West and upper-level
flow turns southwesterly once more. The closed, 500mb system starts
to move into western Wyoming by Thursday evening, with much of the
western portions of the CWA under strong, southwesterly flow and
within the left exit region of the trough, favoring synoptic lift
across the region. Another 700mb system is progged to develop late
Thursday night into the early morning hours Friday, leading to
increasing height gradients and strong, southwesterly flow across
western portions of the CWA and strong, westerly flow across the
Laramie Range. As this system strengthens overnight, the 700mb jet
will increase to 50 to 55kts across the CWA, leading to increasing
concerns for high winds late Thursday through Friday. A second
Colorado Low is progged to push off the Rocky Mountains early
Thursday afternoon and deepen rapidly, leading to cold air once
again funneling into the region and increasing surface pressure
gradients and precipitation chances. A very strong cold front is
anticipated to develop with this low, leading to rapidly falling
temperatures Thursday evening into the overnight hours as 700mb
temperatures cool rapidly to the -12 to -10C range by early Friday
morning.

With this very strong cold front, a Bora High Wind Event is
becoming increasingly likely across much of the area, with western
portions of the CWA likely seeing high winds earlier in the day as
the stout southwesterly flow dominates the area. High Wind Watches
have been issued for portions of the CWA along I-80 and I-25 from
Thursday morning (for western zones) through Friday evening. Eastern
zones will not see high winds starting until Thursday evening into
the overnight hours as the Bora sets up with maxed out downward
omega values along the Laramie Range. As for precipitation on
Thursday and Friday, the mountains will likely see primarily snow as
temperatures remain cold enough for snow, rather than rain. However,
lower elevations will see rain rapidly transitioning to snow west to
east as the cold air moves into the region. However, the best QPF
looks to remain west of the Laramie Range, where forcing is better.
However, locations east of the Laramie Range will likely see another
0.01 to 0.10in of precipitation. The only location expected to see
more precipitation than this is the area near the Pine Ridge, where
northerly surface flow is expected to persist through much of the
event, leading to several hours of upslope flow increasing
precipitation amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The upper-level trough slowly drags across the region Friday, with
the trough not leaving the region until early Saturday morning.
Strong 500mb vorticity will move through as the center of the 500mb
low advects across the CWA. Very strong anticyclonic vorticity
advection develops behind the 500mb low, leading sinking motion on
the back side of the system and precipitation chances quickly
tapering off. The 700mb low will strengthen rapidly Friday afternoon
across central South Dakota, leading to a strong, northwesterly,
700mb jet across the Laramie Range as the strong cold front drags
across the CWA. Downward omega values are expected to peak early
Friday morning as the front pushes through, leading to the initial
Bora event. However, as the 700mb low strengthens as it moves off to
the east, a strong 700mb jet is expected to remain across the
region, favoring high winds to continue through the afternoon and
evening hours.

Dry, northwesterly flow returns to the region for Saturday as an
upper-level ridge builds over the western CONUS once again. This
will signal an end to the more active weather period as warmer
temperatures and drier conditions return. Clear skies are expected
this weekend with temperatures warming into the 40s and 50s on
Saturday. Sunday will be beautiful, as skies remain clear and
temperatures warm into the upper-50s west of the Laramie Range to
the low-60s to low-70s east of the Laramie Range. Winds will remain
mostly light on Sunday, further favoring a gorgeous end to the
weekend. With the warmer and drier conditions returning, fire
weather concerns start to creep back in Sunday afternoon as
afternoon relative humidities drop back towards 15-20%. Another week
of fire concerns is expected as afternoon humidites remain quite low
for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 501 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Overcast skies below 10,000ft AGL at all terminals are expected
to remain through the majority of the 12Z TAF period as widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms move across the
area. Expecting ceilings to decrease into the low-MVFR to IFR
category with winds shifting northerly behind a weak cold front
moving through this evening. Gusty winds at the Nebraska
terminals will continue due to a strong low-level jet overhead.
Winds decrease late morning into the early afternoon hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
     for WYZ106.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for WYZ109.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon
     for WYZ110.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ112-
     114.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening
     for WYZ116-117.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
     for WYZ118.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM