Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

567
FXUS65 KCYS 310512
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1112 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern will continue this weekend with
  daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
  as a potent upper level disturbance moves northeast over the
  area.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon for
  areas east of the I-25 corridor. If severe thunderstorms
  develop all hazards are possible; large hail, damaging winds,
  and tornadoes are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026

Primary forecast concern over the next 48 hours is the potential
for severe thunderstorms over far eastern Wyoming and western
Nebraska this afternoon through late this evening. Potent upper
level low clearly seen on IR and Visible Satellite over south
central Wyoming is forecast to become a negatively tilted open
wave trough over the next several hours. This trough axis will
accelerate northward over eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska
through early this evening. Current surface observations show
ample moisture east of a line from Lusk Pine Bluffs,
paralleling the Wyoming/Nebraska border. Activity has already
started to form across far east central Wyoming and the northern
Nebraska Panhandle where low clouds have dissipated earlier in
the day. Further south, expect another round of thunderstorms to
push across far southeast Wyoming and the southern Nebraska
panhandle, which are now starting to form south of the
Wyoming/Colorado border at this hour. This area will likely
become our primary focus as it moves northeast into this
evening. Upper level analysis shows strong upper level
diffluence increasing rapidly late this afternoon along and
east of I-25 as the base of the trough/vort max lifts northeast.
Expect multicells and isolated supercells initially, with
activity growing upscale once the vort max lifts north. Overall,
expect a large hail threat (1.00-2.00 inches) and maybe an
isolated tornado becoming a straight line wind threat through
the evening hours. Could see some gusts up to 75 MPH with the
strongest lines. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued
mainly for areas east of Interstate 25 until 900 PM late this
evening. Although cells will move north and northeast, expect
any lines of thunderstorms to propagate eastward into this
evening.

Further west, moisture is much more limited with dewpoints
already dropping into the 30s this afternoon. Still expect
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms with a gusty wind
threat into this evening before the cooler air, associated with
the negatively tilted trough, moves east into central Wyoming.
Once the trough lifts northeast, westerly winds will increase
behind it with most models showing 700mb winds around 50 knots.
In-house wind guidance shows 55% to 65% probability of high
wind criteria for Arlington/Elk Mountain, with probabilities
between 30% to 45% for Bordeaux and the I-80 Summit/foothills.
With shallow convection over the Arlington area, and a
possibility for gusty winds, decided to upgrade the High Wind
Watch to a Warning and start it earlier (400 PM) in the day.

Thunderstorm activity should push east of our area by midnight,
with left over showers before sunrise Sunday. Can`t rule out
some low clouds and patchy fog in areas that received heavy
rain, but westerly winds will quickly increase towards morning
limiting any fog threat. Other than High Wind concerns in and
near the wind prone areas and breezy conditions elsewhere, quiet
weather expected into Sunday with any thunderstorm activity
staying well to the north of I-80 towards Douglas and Lusk. Not
as cool with a slight warming trending...and high temperatures
in the upper 60s (west of I-25) to low/mid 80s for western
Nebraska.

For Monday, showers and thunderstorms should return to the high
plains as surface winds shift into the south and southeast.
Further west, another broad upper level trough will brush the
northern Great Basin region and move into Wyoming later in the
day. May see some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms with
0-6km shear around 35 knots and some low to midlevel
instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

The long term period will begin under broad SW flow aloft and a
ridge axis located to our east over the Central Great Plains, with a
large closed upper-level low situated over Montana. Tuesday will
feature high temperatures of 5-10 degrees above climatology in the
mid-upper 70s along and west of the I-25 corridor with mid-80s
further east mainly across our Nebraska counties. With PWAT values
around the 90th percentile and some weak IVT within the SW flow, can
expect showers and thunderstorms as numerous weak impulses propagate
around the base of the aforementioned closed system to our north.
While the strongest deep-layer shear is expected to remain well to
our north over SE Montana, effective bulk shear around 30 knots will
result in a chance for a few severe thunderstorms, especially east
of the Laramie Range where low-level moisture is expected to be
highest. Although exact details are likely to change, ensemble
guidance has a dryline located somewhere in the vicinity of the
Wyoming/Nebraska border which could also provide a source for
mesoscale forcing for ascent depending on the strength of the
dryline circulation and the magnitude of capping. With the above-
average high temperatures on Monday located upstream of SE Wyoming/W
Nebraska across Western Colorado, SW aloft may advect a strong
elevated mixed layer over our low-level moisture which may limit
shower and thunderstorm coverage to the higher terrain, with lower
elevations remaining capped. This will need to be monitored in short-
term updates to address chances of severe weather on Tuesday.

Wednesday will feature weakening flow aloft as the closed system and
associated belt of strong flow to our north lifts to the north and
east over Canada. There should be enough remaining moisture
underneath the ridge to allow for another round of diurnal showers
and thunderstorms, however with an overall lack of large-scale
forcing, these should be confined to the higher terrain. Weak mean
cloud-layer flow underneath the ridge would also suggest little
storm coverage over lower elevations. High temperatures on Wednesday
will be similar to the day prior.

Heading towards the end of the work week, the longwave ridge
flattens and mid-level flow becomes more zonal. As mid-level heights
rise, we will also see a gradual warming trend along with mostly dry
conditions. Some lingering moisture will allow for daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms, although no widespread precipitation is
anticipated through the end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026

Primarily VFR conditions expected overnight as showers and
storms move out of the are. There is a slight chance for a
shower or two at KRWL over the next few hours, but all
precipitation chances end by the early morning hours. Gusty
winds are anticipated for the late morning into the afternoon
hours. Expecting mostly clear skies for the afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch through Sunday afternoon for WYZ106-116-117.
     High Wind Warning until 9 AM MDT Sunday for WYZ110.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AM