Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

279
FXUS65 KCYS 181149
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
449 AM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of strong northwest winds is expected over the
  High Plains today, with gusts to 65 mph expected in Niobrara
  county and the northern Nebraska panhandle. Gusts of 40 to 55
  mph are expected elsewhere.

- Weak cold fronts this evening and again on Wednesday will
  bring a drop in temperature and a slight chance for light
  snow.

- More widespread colder and wintry weather is possible towards
  the end of the week ahead, but uncertainty remains
  considerable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

No major changes were made to the forecast with this update.
Stubborn northwest flow remains overhead as our area is sandwiched
between a broad upper level low dominating central and eastern North
America, while a powerful ridge remains fixed to the West Coast. The
next clipper system is visible on GOES water vapor imagery, moving
across eastern Montana at this hour. This upper level shortwave is
accompanied by a surface low currently positioned over southern
Canada, but an elongated surface trough extends southward into
central Nebraska. Since this lifted away from the Laramie range
earlier this morning, west to northwest winds have spread over the
High Plains once again. The 700-mb jet aloft has already kicked up
again behind the departing surface trough, with the latest
mesoanalysis showing 700-mb winds of 50 to 60 knots over the
northern panhandle. The atmosphere is nicely decoupled right now, so
this is not making it to the ground in the absence of significant
subsidence. Overall, the current warnings look good but confidence
is quite a bit lower than Friday`s event. Reaching the gusts of 60
to 65 mph at the surface will depend on a few conflicting things.
First, the winds aloft will begin to gradually weaken after midday,
but it will take some time to get mixing going. In addition, the
best descent looks to be present this morning, whereas the arrival
of the poorly defined cold front this afternoon will promote some
ascent (and possibly a few snow showers) over the US-20 corridor.
Due to this lack of confidence, the warning was left as-is, but we
will still need to monitor the potential for strong winds to expand
into the southern NE panhandle and Goshen county today, as winds
aloft are marginally supportive. The most likely scenario is for
fairly widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph to dominate the High Plains
today.

The upper level shortwave will push a weak mid-level front
southwestward over the area this afternoon and evening, likely
causing radar to fill in with some light snow showers. This will
affect our northern zones mid morning into the afternoon hours, and
then push south towards the I-80 corridor by around the late
afternoon. For most, this will probably just be flurries, but a
lucky few may see a dusting to a half inch of snow by Monday
morning. The most likely spots for this would be the higher
elevations of southern Wyoming, including the southern Laramie Range
(I-80 summit) and the Snowy Range. This will be driven by weak
overrunning on top of modest frontogenesis pushing through the area,
with a boost on north-facing slopes thanks to dominate northerly low-
level flow late this afternoon and evening. This system will knock
temperatures down again tonight into Monday morning, but cold
weather highlights are not expected.

Monday looks like another chilly and windy day, with highs a few
degrees colder than seasonal averages, and stubborn northwest winds
making yet another appearance. Winds aloft will generally be in the
35 to 45 knot range on Monday, supporting surface gusts of 35 to 50
mph or so. A few gusts to 60 mph can`t be ruled out mainly along the
Pine Ridge / US-20 corridor, but the probability is fairly low at
this time (20%).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

The middle part of the week ahead will be a back and forth between
warm and cold weather as a series of weak shortwave troughs continue
to move through the area in the northwest flow aloft, with the ridge
briefly recovering in between waves. Tuesday looks like a milder day
as 700-mb temperatures recover to around -2 to -4C. Falling surface
pressure over the I-25 corridor will likely kick up another round of
high winds in the wind prone areas Tuesday morning, but due to the
position of the surface trough more or less along I-25, we should
see the high winds stay confined to the typical wind prone spots.
For those locations, the current probability for high winds is 70%
along I-80 and 40% along I-25 (lower due to uncertainty in the exact
location of the surface trough). Further east, it will still be
breezy to windy, which is expected to lead to elevated fire weather
conditions as temperatures briefly warm up over the dry airmass. The
warm up will be short lived, with another cold front expected to
sweep through the area by Tuesday evening. A reinforcing front will
arrive Wednesday morning. Both of these frontal passages will be
capable of producing a surge of strong north to northwest winds
along with a few snow showers. Ensembles are generally unimpressive
with precipitation chances from either of these frontal pushes with
only a handful of members showing any QPF at all. However, global
models tend to be biased a little low for precipitation during these
types of events (as we have seen numerous times this season
already). Therefore, we will need to watch for a few snow showers
driven by the frontogenesis moving through the area along/behind
each of these two frontal passages. Moisture will be quite limited
with the first front Tuesday PM, but moisture looks a little better
with the second front during the day on Wednesday. After a chillier
day on Wednesday, expect another warm up as 700-mb temperatures
recover to around -2 to -4C once again. This will come with another
possibility for some strong winds mainly in the wind prone areas,
although probabilities are a little lower (40% for all 3 wind
prone zones). In addition, we will need to watch for elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions once again over the High
Plains with low RH coincident with the warmup.

Forecast uncertainty increases considerably towards the end of the
week. Ensembles are in pretty good agreement on a synoptic pattern,
but this will be the type of pattern where small shifts in the exact
placement of key features will result in wildly different outcomes
for the weather across our area. On the synoptic scale, expect the
persistent western ridge to weaken towards the end of the week,
while at the same time, a strong lobe of vorticity rotating around
the broad, powerful upper level low positioned north of the Great
Lakes region drops southward. Due to the weaker ridge, this should
be able to push southward a bit further west compared to the
previous clipper systems recently. In addition, Pacific moisture
looks likely to find a weakness in the ridge, so the upper level jet
will not be quite as moisture starved. Pacific moisture and an
arctic high sliding down from the north against the front range of
the Rockies are both key players supporting active winter weather
patterns for our area, but the devil is always in the details. The
arctic frontal boundary is expected to stall somewhere nearby late
this weekend into the weekend, and exactly where this occurs will
determine whether we see some real wintry weather, or if we remain
windy and dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 438 AM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

Gusty northwest winds will spread over the area once again
today. Gusts of 40 to 50 knots are expected at CDR and AIA, with
gusts of 35 to 45 knots at LAR, CYS, BFF, and SNY. A few brief
gusts to 50 knots can`t be ruled out. Winds will tilt more north
as the day progresses. Winds will weak progressively through the
evening hours.

A cold front sweeping through this afternoon will bring a few
scattered light snow showers. Confidence in the coverage and
location of this activity is fairly low, but a few PROB30 groups
were introduced to account for this possibility.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ102.
     High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for WYZ106.
     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ110-116.
NE...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ002-003-
     095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN