Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

540
FXUS65 KCYS 311102
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
502 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front moved through overnight and is expected to bring
  cooler temperatures and a chance for widespread rain and snow
  showers Tuesday through Wednesday night.

- Accumulating snow is expected for the higher mountains above
  9000 ft in elevation Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

- Isolated to scattered showers and potentially thunderstorms
  are possible Wednesday afternoon. Severe weather is not
  expected at this time.

- After a brief warmup Thursday, another strong cold front will
  sweep through the area and bring another round of rain and
  snow Thursday afternoon into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 101 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The cold front is slowly moving across the region tonight and is
currently just north of Cheyenne eastward to just north of
Bridgeport. The front is expected to exit the region within the next
1 to 3 hours, leading to gusty northerly winds in its wake. Minimal
to no precipitation is ongoing across the area as a result of the
frontal passage, but isolated showers cannot be completely ruled out
overnight. Upper-level flow turns largely zonal later this morning
into the afternoon, allowing the more mild temperatures to continue
across the region, especially as 700mb temperatures drop into the 0
to 2C range this morning throughout the day. Precipitation is
expected to be scarce outside of the higher elevations, despite the
frontal passage, as the best synoptic support does not move into the
area until late this evening into the overnight hours tonight. 700mb
flow is progged to turn southwesterly across western portions of the
region, leading to favorable wind direction for continued upslope
development, especially along the Sierra Madres. Snow begins in the
higher elevations by sunrise and will continue through the next
couple of days. As for the rest of the region, expect cooler
temperatures today with highs in the mid-40s to mid-50s east of the
Laramie range and mid-50s to low-60s west of the Laramie Range where
700mb temperatures are expected to quickly rebound.

Later this evening, an upper-level shortwave trough will push
towards the region, with synoptic lift out ahead of the trough
beginning as early as midnight tonight. Modest 500mb cyclonic
vorticity advection is expected late tonight into the early morning
hours Wednesday, allowing the upper-level trough to propagate
eastward, though at a slower rate due to magnitude of the CVA. The
trough axis is expected to be across the Nevada/Utah state line by
12Z Wednesday morning. A diffuse 700mb shortwave develops late
tonight into early Wednesday morning with southwesterly flow
increasing across western portions of the CWA. Beginning by 00Z
Wednesday, a messy, surface low attempts to organize over western
Wyoming, further supporting the development of southwesterly flow at
both the surface and 700mb across the higher elevations with more
southeasterly flow expected east of the Laramie Range. Both east and
west of the Laramie Range will see fairly favorable surface flow to
support upslope development, so precipitation is expected to become
more widespread late tonight into Wednesday morning. This period
from about midnight tonight through noon Wednesday will see the
highest snowfall rates across the higher elevations out west, given
strong southwesterly flow throughout the atmosphere and NAEFS Mean
Integrated Water Vapor Transport suggesting values in the 90th
percentile for this time of year with precipitation water peaking
above the 97.5th percentile for the same area and time. Much of the
6 to 12 inches of snow forecast for the Winter Weather Advisory is
expected to fall during this time before slowing tapering off
Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Wednesday morning and afternoon will see the best chances for
widespread precipitation across the lower elevations. As Colorado
Low is progged to develop in east central Colorado Wednesday morning
into the early afternoon hours and advect due east through Thursday
morning. This track is favorable for much of the CWA to see
easterly, upslope flow throughout the afternoon Wednesday, with flow
turning northerly by Wednesday evening. If this were a more typical
winter, the CWA would be expecting some decent snowfall totals from
this system, however, it is anything but a typical year for
southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. Therefore, 700mb
temperatures are expected to remain quite warm throughout the day
Wednesday before slowly dropping off Wednesday after sunset. Much of
the precipitation with this system is expected to fall as rain, with
a few isolated thunderstorms possible across areas east of the
Laramie Range. Severe weather is not expected at this time as
instability remains too low for severe, but high enough for isolated
thunder and lightning. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting
the region in a General Thunder threat for Wednesday. Snow is only
really expected in the highest elevations and potentially far
western portions of the CWA. Despite this, beneficial rainfall is
expected across most areas with the Wednesday system, though it will
hardly put a dent in the ongoing drought across much of the western
CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

No major changes. Please see previous discussion for more details...

A potent upper-level trough will come ashore the west coast on
Thursday and quickly make its way eastward throughout the day. This
trough will bring precipitation chances to the CWA for the end of
the work week. By Thursday night, the trough will enter the western
reaches of the CWA, with precipitation creeping into Carbon and
Albany Counties as early as Thursday afternoon. The cold front
associated with this trough will be rather strong, advecting much
colder air into the region very quickly. While precipitation may
start as rain Thursday afternoon, it may quickly change to snow with
the frontal passage. This raises concerns for snow squall potential
as there will be minor instability out west with blustery conditions
from a strong MSLP gradient. A flash freeze behind the front is also
in question depending how quickly temperatures drop and when
precipitation arrives. Snow will likely continue into the overnight
hours for areas west of the Laramie Range with some accumulation
possible for the lower elevations.

Models begin to differ Friday with how to handle the upper-level
closed low associated with the trough. The GFS has a more northerly
track along the Wyoming/Montana border while the ECMWF takes a more
southerly track along the Colorado/Wyoming border. The more
northerly solution of the GFS is dryer, keeping most of the
precipitation in the northern zones of the CWA. The more southerly
track of the ECMWF brings the precipitation a bit farther south in
the North Platte River Valley, but still mostly keeps the Interstate
80 corridor east of Cheyenne rather dry. Regardless of which
solution comes to fruition, both have much colder high temperatures
on Friday behind the front. Highs will mainly be in the 30s and 40s,
with 50s possible in the southern Nebraska panhandle. These colder
temperatures means precipitation could fall as snow, or at least a
rain/snow mix. At this time, cannot rule out some lower elevation
accumulations for areas east of the Laramie Range, but for now, the
most confidence in accumulation remains in the high terrain.

Once the trough moves out of the region, a return to warmer and
drier conditions can be expected as upper-level ridging takes its
place. Cold air aloft will still be in place Saturday, so the return
to above average temperatures will happen on Sunday with highs in
the 50s and upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Lowering ceilings expected this morning behind a departing cold
front. Ceilings are expected to be in the lower-end VFR to MVFR
category for most terminals throughout the early morning hours
and into much of the afternoon hours. Isolated to scattered
showers will drift across the region today, but confidence is
low on any specific terminal being impacted at this time.
Ceilings will briefly improve later afternoon into the early
evening before ceilings begin to lower once more as widespread
precipitation starts to develop.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 PM MDT
     Wednesday for WYZ112-114.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...SF/AM
AVIATION...AM