Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

226
FXUS65 KCYS 020602
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1102 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread precipitation likely late Monday through Tuesday
  evening, with snow possible down to elevations of 6000 feet.

- Next impactful system expected to arrive late Wednesday night
  through the end of the work week with another round of rain
  and snow and cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Current surface analysis shows a stationary front near or
slightly west of the Interstate 25 corridor early this afternoon
with breezy westerly winds at Laramie, Rawlins, and even
Cheyenne Airport. In contrast, Locations to the east of this
boundary show northerly or easterly winds. This boundary is not
expected to move much over the next 12 hours, and then drift
westward as another frontal boundary moves into western Wyoming
early Monday morning. Yesterday, models showed shower activity
developing along this boundary, but high res guidance has
delayed any shower activity until later this evening due to the
change in position of the front. Removed the mention of shower
activity for most areas this afternoon, but kept a 20 percent
chance for tonight as the stationary front drifts west and a
vort max aloft moves northeast across the region. Any precip is
expected to be light and short-lived.

Another mild day on Monday before the next potent Pacific storm
system moves into the region Monday night. Models show this
storm system moving across the Great Basin region Monday
afternoon. Low to midlevel flow will become more south to
southwesterly across the Front Range ahead of the potent
trough, with 700mb temperatures climbing above +4c along the
Interstate 80 corridor. It will be mostly cloudy for much of the
day, but believe there will be enough sun to justify high
temperatures in the mid 60s to near 70 for most of the eastern
high plains...and generally in the upper 50s to near 60 for the
high valleys of Carbon and Albany counties. Increased high
temperatures a few degrees ahead of the main cold front. Expect
two windows of possible shower activity, first one will be
associated with the midlevel vort max which is expected to lift
northeast into the early morning hours across east central
Wyoming and the northern/central Nebraska panhandle. The second
window of precip should be ahead of the primary cold front,
which is forecast to push into western and central Wyoming
Monday afternoon and evening. High res guidance showing a decent
coverage of thunderstorm activity ahead of this front. Continued
to mention thunder in the forecast late Monday afternoon and
Monday evening for most areas north of Interstate 80 where the
best forcing, moisture, and instability will be. Dewpoints may
climb close to 40 degrees across these areas, which is well
above climatology for early March. A quick look at NAEFS shows
the 12z to 23z PWAT above the 99th percentile for this time of
the year...and nearly an 18z maximum for late winter. Increased
POP in these areas towards 70% or numerous coverage of showers
and scattered thunder. Most of this activity will be in the form
of rain, with mainly a little snow above 9500 feet.

For Monday night and Tuesday, models have remained status quo
for the Tuesday system and have not trended warmer nor cooler.
One key difference, models are no longer showing a resemblance
of a closed low trying to form across northeast Colorado until
very late in the forecast period (mainly the ECMWF), with a
positively tilted progressive trough moving through the area
Tuesday evening. Model QPF has stayed mostly the same with good
agreement from all ensemble guidance...generally between 0.20 to
0.40 of liquid. Placed most locations around the 50th percentile
of QPF (0.20 to 0.25 of an inch), but expect some locations to
get close to a half of an inch due to instability. Expect all
rain below 5000 feet and mostly snow above 7500 feet. It`s the
far western high plains along I-25 and the high valleys of
Carbon and Albany counties that have the least confidence with
this system since snowlevels are questionable, in addition to most
of the event occurring during the daytime hours. Model soundings
have not changed much from yesterday, and still show an isothermal
layer developing between 1000 feet and 3000 feet AGL for
locations like Laramie and Cheyenne. At this point, forcing
looks potent but brief, with models not showing as much
frontogenesis compared to yesterday but still show WAA, jet
dynamics, and ample low level convergence. Kept POP on the high
side for QPF amounts around 0.25 for most of the area. Continued
a rain/snow mix between elevations of 5500 to 7000 feet. Pretty
confident that even if snow falls in Douglas, Cheyenne, and
Wheatland, that pavement/surface temperatures will be too high
to result in much of a travel impact with any low-end snow
accumulations mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces. Places
like Laramie and the I-80 Summit will need to be monitored for
last minute Winter Weather Advisories for 1 to 3 inches of snow
Tuesday evening. The higher mountains will likely need a Winter
Weather Advisory shortly for 6 to 12 inches for the Snowy Range
and Sierra Madre Range. High temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s will likely occur early in the day, with temperatures
falling through the afternoon hours.

Upper level trough axis will eject east of the area Tuesday
night with clearing skies and ending precipitation by midnight.
All models show a shortwave ridge axis moving into the Front
Range by Wednesday morning, resulting in pleasant and mild day
with high temperatures in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Thursday, A reinforced shortwave trough will push
through the Intermountain West. The models have trended the storm
track to be more south in the last 24 hours of model runs. This new
trajectory pushes the jetstream to our south limiting the potential
for high winds later this week and increases the synoptic lift over
our region increasing the chances for more widespread precipitation.
Our in-house algorithm reflects this thought process as it has
probability for high winds at less than 10 percent for the wind
prones. However, there is still almost a 40 percent chance for
elevated winds. That probability is expected to go down if this
track remains consistent but also a gust between 30 and 40 mph could
happen almost everyday here without a system. More importantly our
precipitation chances do increase as this system passes right over
our region. The 00z run (12z hasn`t come in yet) of the LREF paints
a wide swath of 20 percent probs across the CWA for greater than
0.10 inches Thursday into Friday. This much needed precipitation
will likely vary from location to location, but it does depict
decent chances for widespread beneficial precipitation during our
warm and dry winter. Behind this system, colder air will move into
the Intermountain West Thursday night into Friday as the trough and
trailing cold front push through. 700mb temperatures will drop from
the +3-4C on Thursday to a -5 to potentially -10c by Friday morning
to early afternoon.  This will cause the Thursday daytime 50-60
temperatures for the lower elevations to drop into the 30`s and 40`s
for Friday. However, overnight temperatures will likely be rather
stable in the mid 20`s these two days. This will be due to the
forecasted cloudy skies acting as a thermal blanket in the night
time trapping the terrestrial radiation closer to the surface
creating a stable warm layer overnight. Also because of this surge
of colder air, our showers will likely switch from rain to snow
Thursday night through Friday morning. While snow accumulations can
vary depending on how fast the rain transitions to snow generally
light accumulations are expected. THe LREF does highlight the
Northern Laramie range south of Douglass and the higher elevations
between Rawlins and Laramie as having the greatest probability for
exceeding 1 inch of snow while the lower elevations east of I-25
have about a 10 to 20 percent chance of exceeding an inch. This
weekend the Intermountain West transitions back into a Westerly flow
rebounding the temperatures back into the the 40`s and 50`s. This
will slowly increase the downsloping winds and start to dry us back
out. The Intermountain West essentially becomes the middle man in
between two low pressure systems moving through the North American
Continent. This weekend there is decent consensus that the low
pressure system will be cut off from the flow in the southwestern US
as another low pressure system moves through the Canadian
providences. These two systems will move the jetstream over the
Rocky mountains due to the compression of the 500mb gradient. If
this occurs then we could possibly see the return of high winds next
week (8 March-13 March).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

A moisture laden but disorganized storm system is moving into
the area over the upcoming TAF period. Scattered light showers
have developed over the area and will be in the vicinity of
several terminals through Monday morning. Dips into MVFR
territory are fairly unlikely, but can`t be ruled out.

The wind forecast is a low confidence during the day and
evening Monday, with significant differences between high
resolution models, but overall speeds should remain on the light
side. Another round of shower activity will move into the area
Monday afternoon and evening. Some embedded thunder will be
possible with this activity, which will bring a better chance
for MVFR VIS or CIGs. Expect shower activity to be increasing in
coverage towards the end of the TAF period with flight
categories beginning to trend downward late Monday evening.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MN