Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

299
FXUS65 KCYS 172102
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
302 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A High Wind Warning is in effect for the usual southeast
  Wyoming wind prone area, Arlington and Bordeaux. Wind gusts of
  55 to 60 MPH are possible.

- Drier and milder weather expected this weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Based on observations, today seems to be overperforming in the dry
and warm department. Temperatures this morning were quick to warm
up, with many locations warming almost 10 degrees an hour, which was
faster than what most models predicted. The rapid warming helped
fuel the rapid drying that also occurred, especially in the South
Laramie Range and the Arlington area. Relative humidity was already
below 15 percent in these areas by 10 AM. With windy conditions also
occurring, this prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for the
Arlington area where fuels are critical. Fuels are non-critical in
the South Laramie Range with visible satellite still showing
lingering snow cover. Therefore, held off on a Red Flag for this
zone despite the critical conditions. The Red Flag Warning is in
effect through 7 PM this evening, at which point winds will begin to
weaken and relative humidity should recover. On the opposite end of
the spectrum, High Wind Warnings are still in effect but have been
underperforming. It has certainly been windy, with gusts up to
50 MPH being observed, but based on surface analysis, the MSLP
gradient was not as strong as models suggested in previous runs.
Despite not hitting high winds, gusty winds will continue into
the overnight hours as MSLP gradients remain elevated.

A weak and subtle cool front will move across the forecast area
during the day on Sunday. This will lower temperatures by about 5 to
10 degrees compared to Saturday. Highs will still be a few degrees
above average. There will also be a weak shortwave passing to the
south of the CWA. This will increase cloud cover across the area
during the afternoon hours. Also cannot rule out an isolated shower
over the high terrain with the shortwave, however precipitation
chances are below 15 percent. Overall, weather conditions will make
for a pleasant end to the weekend. Monday will be virtually the same
as Sunday, with highs in the 60s. Still some lingering cloud cover
over the mountains from the shortwave to the south. Once again,
cannot rule out a stray shower in and around the high terrain later
in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Warm and dry weather is expected to continue through most of next
week, though a transition to a more active pattern is possible by
the end of the week into next weekend. The synoptic weather pattern
for the weak ahead will features a broad ridge over the central US,
with another slow moving closed low meandering into the western part
of the country. Southwest flow aloft will prevail through most of
the week. Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages with 700-
mb temperatures around +5 to +8C for much of the week. Look for
highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the area, which will be about
10-15F above normal. The flow direction will continue to improve mid
to upper level moisture through the week. By Thursday afternoon,
NAEFS mean precipitable water is actually quite close to
climatological maximums. Despite the high moisture content, we don`t
have much lift to actually translate this into precipitation. Weak
heating this late in the season will keep convective instability to
a minimum, and synoptic forcing appears unimpressive at this time.
Still, we may see some widely scattered high-based showers each
afternoon and early evening through the week ahead. Forcing may be
strong enough by Thursday to pick up coverage a little as the upper
level low to our west inches closer. Fortunately, the moisture
advection will mix into the boundary layer periodically, which
should keep fire weather concerns down.

The upper level low will make its exit to the east sometime in the
Friday through Sunday period. This will present the next chance for
notable precipitation, while also dropping temperatures closer to
seasonal normals. Most likely, Friday will be another warm day but
with increasing chances for rainfall later in the day, with the cool-
down waiting until Saturday. Since we are still 6 to 7 days out,
precipitation is highly uncertain at this time. NBM PoPs are
generally in the 30 to 50% range which seems appropriate at this
lead time. While a sizable minority of ensemble members have
healthy precipitation totals (0.5" or more), this system appears
fairly disorganized so there is also a possibility (30% or so) that
it delivers minimal rainfall to our area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period. Occasional wind
gusts of 15 to 25 knots are expected at LAR and CYS today, and
gusts may exceed 30 knots at RWL. Look for a few wind gusts up
to 20 knots in Nebraska. Winds will ease and start to rotate
around in direction overnight. A weak front will turn winds to
the north towards the end of the TAF period over the High
Plains.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ106-110.
     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ427.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN