Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

863
FXUS65 KCYS 210030
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
630 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly temperatures will continue for the next several days
  with patchy fog possible again Thursday morning.

- Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
  continue this evening. A more widespread round of showers and
  thunderstorms is expected Thursday into Friday.

- Slightly above average temperatures and pleasant weather is on
  track for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026

Some showers will be moving through this afternoon and evening
mostly pushing in from Colorado. These showers are expected to be
short lived and provide some light precip mostly for the southern
corner of the Nebraska Panhandle. A shortwave trough will be pushing
through the North Central Rocky Mountains tonight into early
Thursday morning. The RAP model puts about 1,000 to 1,500 joules of
CAPE east of the I-25 corridor. The increase synoptic lift of the
trough and the semi weak but present jet dynamics will combine to
give us some scattered thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon. SPC
also upgraded eastern Laramie county and the southern half of the
Nebraska Panhandle to a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms. The
main concern will be hail sized up to quarters and some potential
for gusty winds up to 60 mph. The scattered showers look to rough
start in the afternoon as we become a little more unstable with
better lapse rate due to diurnal heating on Thursday and continue
through Friday morning. Most of the precipitation will come down as
rain during the day but west of the I-25 corridor into the higher
terrain, the precipitation should start to be more of a rain/snow
mix by the late afternoon/early evening timeframe. The snow
accumulations in the higher terrain look to be less than an inch with
higher accumulations on the mountain peaks. By Friday afternoon the
trough should be pushing into the Northern Plains and just east
enough to be limiting the shower chances to mainly the Panhandle
area then completely ending by the Friday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026

The cool and unsettled weather pattern will come to a close this
weekend as broad troughing is replaced by zonal flow on Saturday,
followed by building ridging Sunday through Tuesday. Expect a
pleasant day on Saturday with temperatures near seasonal averages.
Typical diurnal cloud cover and winds can be expected with some mid-
level cumulus and westerly breeziness developing in the afternoon.
Isolated high based showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible, though the chance for appreciable rainfall is fairly low.
A potent upper level ridge will build into the area Sunday into
Monday, pushing temperatures above seasonal averages. 700-mb
temperatures climb to around +8 to +12C, which will support highs
around the climatological 90th percentile, but still several degrees
shy of daily record highs. Chances for a few afternoon and evening
high based showers and thunderstorms will continue Sunday and
Monday, but again, rainfall potential will be limited. With westerly
flow prevailing at the surface, dewpoints will remain stuck mostly
in the 30s. Forecast soundings show decent moisture aloft, but
fairly deep, dry, and well-mixed boundary layers. In addition,
forcing for ascent looks limited. NBM PoPs are not really showing up
for this period yet, but this is a fairly typical bias during warm
and dry weather.

Tuesday will be another warm day, but hints of a more active pattern
to come will begin to show up. The strong upper level ridge will
shift eastward, setting up over the Plains and Midwest. Meanwhile, a
closed upper level low will dive into the Pacific Northwest and then
stall for several days as it inches eastward. Falling surface
pressure over Montana associated with modest lee cyclogenesis will
increase southerly flow Monday into Tuesday, which should allow low
level moisture to recover. Forcing from the approaching upper level
low will help ignite showers and thunderstorms in the place of
modest instability and ample moisture. This should setup Tuesday as
the best day for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.
The upper level low will be very slow to move eastward, which may
keep scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as a
possibility for much of next week. NBM PoPs of generally 20 to 50%
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons appear appropriate at this time,
considering we are still 6-7 days away.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026

A few lingering showers are possible this evening, but will
dissipate in the coming hours. A low-level jet will persist over the
Nebraska panhandle overnight, leading to wind gusts between 30 and
40 kts. Low CIGs will likely also move into portions of the Nebraska
panhandle and KCYS overnight. MVFR to IFR CIGs are likely by
morning. CIGs may lift at KCYS by the afternoon, but may persist in
Nebraska for most of the day. Showers and thunderstorms will also
return to the area by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...SF