Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

460
FXUS65 KCYS 300006
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
605 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, warm, and breezy conditions are expected to continue
  through Thursday, with mild overnight lows.

- Chances for a few showers return Saturday (Halloween) with
  temperatures remaining mild.

- A pattern change to colder, wetter, and windier conditions is
  favored Sunday into Tuesday, but the details remain highly
  uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 301 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Temperatures are going to be the hardest part of this short term
forecast for tonight through Saturday morning. The models have
indicated that a stratus deck will blanket the Nebraska Panhandle
much like what has covered Sidney, Nebraska the entire day. This low
stratus deck will insulate the surface, stabilizing the temperatures
at some point through the night. Meanwhile most of Southeast Wyoming
looks to be covered in high based clouds allowing for a little bit
more cooling than what might occur in the Panhandle. So for the most
part I have temperatures in the upper 30`s for most of Southeast
Wyoming and temperatures in the low to mid 40`s for the Nebraska
Panhandle area anticipating that low stratus deck to form. Patchy
fog was also put into the grids as the stable atmosphere may lead to
some fog production with visibility reductions as low as 1SM or
possibly down to a quarter mile. High temperatures tomorrow look to
be in the 50`s and 60`s but if the cloud layer behaves like it did
over Sidney those temperatures may need to be dropped into the low
50`s due to lack of diurnal heating. But no precipitation chances are
expected in the short term forecast.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

The Long term forecast is pretty complex. Saturday
morning a weak shortwave that`s going to push through the western
portion of Wyoming giving a chance for some morning to early
afternoon showers for the southwestern corner of Carbon county.
Everywhere else in the forecast area will see dry conditions and
temperatures in the upper 50`s to low 60`s. Around trick or treating
time most of the area will be hovering around 45 degrees for some
possible light jacket conditions with the light winds.

Sunday into early next week,

A complex storm system will push across the western CONUS Sunday
into early next week. Two major players will make up this system:
first, a strong, moisture-laden upper level low riding the
subtropical jet stream into the southwest and second, a potent
Pacific trough pushing into the northwest. The primary questions
concerning the evolution of this system are if, when, and where the
two approaching systems might merge together. The model guidance has
a hard time resolving this event often flip flopping how cold the
air aloft will be and how much forcing will be present during the
next few days. Latest probabilities are a 50 percent chance for 5
inches of snow concentrated on our mountain peaks and adjacent areas
above 9,000t and possibly 1-3 inches for areas like Rawlins and
Laramie as they sit at roughly 7,000ft. Then for areas for along and
east of the I-25 corridor the 50 percent chance is for an inch or
less as it may be too warm most of the time for adequate snow
accumulation. The 90th percentile which would favor colder
temperatures aloft and an earlier merger has about 10 inches for our
peaks, 3-5 inches for Laramie and Rawlins and 1-2 inches of snow
along the I-25 corridor with trace to an inch about as far east as
Kimball Nebraska. Some of the major news networks have already begun
posting the clickbait potential focusing on the very upper end of
the accumulation amounts. But if the air aloft stays between 3-6C
instead of diving into the negatives then we are more likely to end
up with a decent amount of rain and very little snow Sunday through
Tuesday. The 10 percentile encompasses this scenario a little better
and the snow accumulation becomes 1-2 inches for our mountain tops
and a trace amount for Laramie and Rawlins. For areas along and east
of I-25 the precipitation would most likely stay as rain for
majority of the time and have a rain/snow mix during the heavier
rain portions. The high-resolution models take their first stab at
the system soon and start to resolve the system and throw their
weight towards the most likely scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Southwest flow aloft will continue over southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska through late Friday with intervals of mid to high
clouds. Southeast upslope flow at the surface will help in low
clouds and fog development over the eastern high plains tonight
through early Friday morning.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will continue this evening at
most terminals with KSNY remaining MVFR with 1500 ft CIGS over the
next few hours. CIGS and VIS will trend lower for all of western
Nebraska and KCYS in southeast Wyoming through 08z. Main Aviation
concern will be timing since confidence is pretty high (>60%), but
expect KSNY and KAIA to be the first terminals to see LIFR
conditions and VIS below 1 mile. Most high res models show KCYS
getting a few hours of LIFR conditions as well, so added VCFG to
KCYS through 12z. Conditions will slowly improve from west to east
between 12z and 18z Friday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MN/MM
AVIATION...TJT