Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

186
FXUS65 KCYS 051711
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1111 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue
  through the work week.

- Fire weather will be a concern, alongside a chance at record
  high temperatures both today and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A toasty day is in store for us across SE Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle, as record-breaking warmth is expected across our area
underneath broad longwave ridging over the western half of the
country. Although the ridge dampens throughout the day, 700 mb
temperatures are progged to exceed the 99th percentile relative to
climatology resulting in high temperatures expected to reach the mid
to upper 80s east of the I-25 corridor, with a few 90 degree
readings possible across Western Nebraska. As it stands, HREF
guidance has a 50th percentile high temperature of 83F in Cheyenne,
which would break the previous record high of 82F set way back in
1947. While stations such as Scottsbluff and Chadron are likely to
fall just short of record territory (daily records are in the low to
mid 90s), these locations are still expected to see high
temperatures averaging 15-20 degrees above climatology.

Aside from the heat, the main concern today will be fire weather
conditions, as a lee trough establishes itself across the region,
which will result in an uptick in gradient flow and our winds. As
minimum RH values are anticipated to range from 10-15% east of the
Laramie Range combined with peak gusts of 20-30 mph and plenty of
dry fuels, outdoor burning is not recommended today, hence the
issuance of a Red Flag Warning until 6 PM today. Further, rather
poor overnight recoveries of only 35-40% are expected, which may
continue any fire weather concerns into tomorrow as we remain in an
anomalously hot and dry pattern.

The longwave ridge bringing us these unseasonably warm temperatures
will continue to weaken into tomorrow, however with NAEFS guidance
showing 500 mb geopotential height still exceeding the 90th
percentile, well above-average high temperatures are expected again.
Regardless of whether or not more temperature records are broken
tomorrow (Laramie and Rawlins are forecast to exceed the daily
record, with Cheyenne tying), we can still expect to see
temperatures range from 15 to 20 degrees above average, with low to
mid 80s east of the I-25 corridor and mid 70s to the west. Median RH
values tomorrow afternoon are in the 15-20% range, however winds
will be weaker than today resulting in a more marginal fire weather
setup, hence allowing the Red Flag Warning to expire this evening
with the possibility of another issuance for tomorrow during the day
depending on trends this afternoon and evening. Tomorrow night will
remain dry, though slightly cooler given the decrease in winds
allowing for more effective radiative cooling. It may seem hard to
believe, but our average overnight low in Cheyenne tomorrow is in
the upper 30s, and we likely won`t dip below 45F. The trend of above-
average temperatures will continue through the rest of the work
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Not a whole lot of interesting developments in the long term from
previous forecasts. A weak NW flow regime is in place while an upper
level low bats back the ridge to our south. The weaker ridging
pattern will allow temperatures to lower a tad Wednesday through the
end of the forecast period, which is a plus. Highs in the 80s east
and 70s out west. Lows in the 50s and 40s. Humidity values stay low,
in the low 20s and teens and winds start increasing ahead of the
next Pacific trough. Global models are starting to come into focus
on this system. The evolution is still uncertain, particularly on
how compact and amplified this trough enters the scene, but the
presence of this system is becoming more certain. A compact system
would bring greater southwesterly winds. Not the greatest news when
combined with the dry afternoon humidities for elevated fire
concerns next weekend.

The ensembles start diverging greatly on Sunday. A cold
front in some of the solutions is driving a nearly 10 to 25 degree
spread in ensemble members. A good cold front and Pacific system
would bring in rain and storms. Temperatures would still be on the
warm side for snow, outside of mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the TAF period. Mostly sunny skies
with typical diurnal winds are expected throughout the day. Little
to no aviation impacts are anticipated.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ418>422-
     427-430-432.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...SF