Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

144
FXUS65 KCYS 252151
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
351 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A messy pattern is anticipated today through much of the
  upcoming week, allowing for ongoing precipitation chances
  across the entire CWA. The best chance for precipitation will
  be Sunday, with widespread showers and thunder.

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Sierra Madre
  and Snowy Ranges from 6PM Saturday through 6AM Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 346 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Radar is picking up on light showers in the western portion of the
CWA where clear skies have lead to warming and the development of a
cumulus field. Showers are originating out of this cumulus
field, however it does not appear that much, if any
precipitation is reaching the ground due to the dry low-levels.
This shower activity will continue through the evening hours per
Hi-Res guidance and should mainly stay along and west of the
Interstate 25 corridor where there is cleaning. The Nebraska
panhandle remains rather stable this afternoon with cooler
temperatures due to a persistent low stratus deck. As a result,
went ahead and nudged high temperatures down into the 40s for
the Nebraska panhandle for the remainder of the afternoon.
Cannot rule out a stray shower overnight as sufficient low-level
moisture moves into the area, however, instability and forcing
will likely limit their development.

Precipitation will become more widespread Sunday morning as the next
shortwave moves into Wyoming. Precipitation during the morning hours
will be more stratiform in nature given the stable environment.
After some warming and partial clearing, a secondary round of
precipitation is expected that will be more convective. Hi-Res
guidance shows widespread showers and thunderstorms developing off
the high terrain and pushing northeast through the afternoon. Both
PWATs and IVT values are in the 90th percentile for NAEFS
climatology so a wet day with ample moisture is expected. Although
showers will be scattered in nature, it is likely that all locations
see some type of precipitation either Sunday or Sunday night.
Thunder will also be possible in both rain and snow showers
throughout the day tomorrow as a few hundred joules of CAPE exist.
There is not a strong signal for severe storms, however because this
is Wyoming and the high plains, cannot rule out rogue gusts to 60
MPH or small hail. Showers will return to a more stratiform state
once again Sunday night. With the shortwave moving out of the CWA,
coverage of precipitation will be lower overnight. Rain will
transition to snow as temperatures cool off through the evening.
Lower elevation snow accumulations will be possible, but will
generally be below an inch with most places expected to see a
dusting. The Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges will be the exception to
this with Winter Weather Advisories in place for accumulations of 6
to 12 inches above 8500 feet. Snow will gradually taper off
through Monday morning as the shortwave moves out of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 346 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A departing upper level trough will be pushing into
the Northern Plains monday morning. There may be some lingering
showers in the Panhandle that will pushing east through the morning.
A weak transient ridge will push through the Intermountain West
giving us a temporary pause in the showers Monday afternoon. This
break will be short-lived as another shortwave will be moving into
the Intermountain West by Monday evening. The global models roughly
agree on the timing with this shortwave as well but start to
disagree on the strength of shortwave. The GFS wants to start to
close off the shortwave indicating a stronger system but the
Canadian and Euro maintain it as an open wave to suggest a
potentially weaker system migrating through the Rockies. There looks
to be sufficient moisture as our cooler temperatures will help
maintain a borderline saturated environment during the work week.
This upcoming week will remain pretty active with multiple
shortwaves throughout the week. Each wave or system looks to have
vortmaxes accompanying them to add in the synoptic lift and give the
region some much needed rain chances. 700mb temperatures range from -
3C to +1C keeping temperatures around 40 to 50 degrees during the
day and dropping into the 30`s at night bring for a slight chance
for some rain transitioning to snow during the overnight hours into
the following early morning. Outside the Sierra Madre, Snowy, and
Northern Laramie ranges, total snow accumulations look to be less
than an inch with measurable accumulations on the mountain peaks and
possibly some light accumulation in the foothills between Laramie in
Cheyenne as the models do hint to some possibly enhanced snowfall
due to mesoscale forcing in that area. The vast majority of the
counties along and east of the I-25 should expect most of the
precipitation to come down as rain with non accumulating (trace)
amounts of snowfall if showers occur overnight.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

For the Nebraska Panhandle terminals, easterly to southeasterly
winds are expected for the duration of the TAF period. This is
an upslope direction meaning that clouds heights are going to
fluctuate between 500ft and 2,500ft for the next 24hrs. Fog is
also a possibility in upslope flow for the early morning hours
probably between 08z-15z for my best guest. Rain showers are
expected to push through overnight but precip reaching the
surface isn`t really expected until around 12-15z tomorrow. KCYS
is the boundary for these low clouds and upslope flow so clouds
may bounce between MVFR/VFR as clouds moving in and out of the
area between 1,500ft and 3,000ft and clear. Showers look to
begin this evening into the overnight period for KRWL and KLAR
but again the best chances for rain to hit the ground is after
12z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for WYZ112-114.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MM