Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

488
FXUS65 KCYS 062123
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
323 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will have the potential to produce
  isolated strong winds and hail through the middle of the
  evening. Expect warmer and drier weather for Saturday.

- A back door cold front Saturday night will bring scattered
  showers and thunderstorms to our northern zones late Saturday
  night/Sunday morning, followed by another round Sunday PM near
  the WY higher terrain.

- Mostly dry and mild weather will prevail for Monday and Tuesday,
  with increasing chances for late day showers and
  thunderstorms for Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 320 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The axis of a compact shortwave trough is traversing across the area
this afternoon. Modest instability in place is producing a few
rumbles of thunder along a line of stronger forcing about to move
through the I-25 corridor. This line of storms may produce
severe winds and hail along with a brief downpour. The wind
threat will decrease as the system moves into a more stable
airmass east of the WY/NE border, but isolated strong winds
and/or large hail cannot be ruled out. This initial line of
storms is actually just ahead of the trough axis, and we may see
another round kick up through the same areas about 2-3 hours
behind along the axis of the upper level shortwave. The
thunderstorm threat will wind down for Wyoming fairly early,
probably around 7PM (with the exception of some possible
lingering activity in Platte/Goshen county). The nebraska
panhandle won`t be far behind, and should see the thunderstorm
activity conclude around 10PM.

Expect dry air advection behind the shortwave trough axis overnight,
leading to clearing skies, dropping dewpoints, and winds turning to
the west/northwest by Saturday morning. A drier airmass aloft and
synoptic scale descent will lead to a much quieter day, with little
to no PM thunderstorm activity expected. At most, there may be a few
showers over the higher terrain. Otherwise, expect highs to climb
back to a few degrees above average with breezy northwest winds
throughout the day.

Another upper level trough will skirt off to our northeast
Saturday night into Sunday. A surface high on its upstream
flank will slide down the eastern side of the Rockies tonight
and push a back door cool front into the area east of the
Laramie Range by Sunday morning. A mid-level frontal boundary
will sag into our northern zones overnight with moist
overrunning flow above. Expect this to kick off some late
night/early morning showers and thunderstorms mainly north of
the North Platte River Valley. The moisture pushing up against
the Laramie Range will then increase the chance for PM showers
and storms mainly over and adjacent to the higher terrain.
Overall coverage should be lower than what we saw most of this
week though.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Monday...Dry again as the low and mid levels dry out under north
northwest flow aloft. 700 mb temperatures near 9 Celsius will yield
maximum temperatures in the 70s.

Tuesday...As ridging aloft moves overhead, and 700 mb temperatures
rise to near 12 Celsius, maximum temperatures will rise into the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Dry again with limited low and mid level
moisture and warm temperatures aloft producing convective inhibition.

Wednesday-Thursday...Zonal flow aloft prevails, with weak shortwave
troughs aloft in the flow and adequate low and mid level moisture to
produce scattered late day showers and thunderstorms each day.
Temperatures will remain warm based on the projected 700 mb
temperatures.

Friday...The flow aloft turns southwest, inducing a surface lee
trough to develop. Looks like adequate low and mid level moisture
for scattered late day showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
remain warm with 700 mb temperatures near 15 Celsius.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The first round of showers has cleared WY terminals, but will
bring VIS reductions due to rainfall across the central/southern
Nebraska panhandle through early afternoon. Then, attention
shifts back to additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms
developing over Wyoming early this afternoon and moving east
into Nebraska through mid evening or so. Thunderstorms will have
the potential to bring gusty winds, hail, and brief IFR VIS in
heavy rainfall. Expect activity to wind down near WY terminals
by around 01z, and by around 04z near Nebraska terminals. Skies
will gradually clear overnight with a dry, breezy day expected
Saturday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MN/WFO-RIW