Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

281
FXUS65 KCYS 112324
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
424 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions are expected to
  continue through the end of the week.

- Chances of precipitation increase over the weekend for the
  mountains, but remain low for the plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1146 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

Benign weather is expected over the next few days as upper-level
ridging slowly traverses the Rockies. Mild temperatures are forecast
for both Thursday and Friday with 700 mb temperatures hovering
around the 90th percentile for NAEFS climatology. Widespread highs
in the 60s are expected for Thursday, which is 15 degrees above
average for mid-November. The warm temperatures and sunny skies will
make for a pleasant day across both southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska. Temperatures on Friday will dip a few degrees as more
clouds float into the area ahead of a Pacific trough. Still looking
at highs predominately in the 60s, but a few locations may drop into
the upper 50s. Overnight lows both nights will remain on the
warmer side as well, with temperatures in the 30s and upper 20s,
which is 5 to 10 degrees above average. Besides temperatures,
there is no real weather to speak of over the next 60 hours.
Even the winds will be light under the ridge. The REFS does show
low probabilities for fog developing in the Nebraska panhandle
early Friday and Saturday morning as winds turn more southerly,
but that will be ironed out with future model runs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

This weekend will mark a transition period as a slightly more
progressive pattern takes place after another week of anomalously
warm and dry conditions. Saturday will start off much cooler than
the previous day, as a cold front is expected to push across SE
Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle during the morning hours. Not
only will this result in forecast highs anywhere from 10-15 degrees
cooler from the previous day, but northerly winds will increase as
an inverted ridge sets up east of the Continental Divide. The
increasing gradient flow as a result of a potent 1030 mb +
anticyclone located over the Canadian Prairies will drive strong
cold advection behind the front throughout the day, although no
widespread precipitation is expected due to the main large-scale
forcing being well to our south. While we certainly can`t rule out
some light snowfall especially within the Snowy and Sierra Madre
Mountains, 50th percentile ECMWF ensemble QPF for SE Wyoming is
currently sitting below 0.05" and has trended downward over the last
couple of runs. This seems reasonable given that the primary
shortwave trough and associated DCVA will be focused more over
Southern Colorado.

GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble guidance are all in fairly good
agreement that our region will be located in a region of upper-level
diffluence on Sunday, downstream of an amplified trough located off
the West Coast. This will place SE Wyoming and W Nebraska in a SW
flow regime, with current LREF guidance suggesting PWAT values will
situate as high as the 85th-95th percentile (0.4-0.5") relative to
climatology. While this sounds great for us in desperate need of
beneficial precipitation, mid and upper-level height rises
associated with a building shortwave ridge, plus the lack of any
forcing mechanism unfortunately point to mostly dry conditions. This
is similar to much of what we have seen this fall given an active
monsoonal pattern, yet we haven`t been able to translate much of
this moisture down to the surface as precipitation. Temperatures
look to be at or slightly above average for this time of year,
mainly in the low to mid 50s east of the Laramie Range, with
slightly cooler to the west.

What once looked slightly more active and exciting has now started
to look, well...dry and boring, as we move into the beginning of
next week. The downstream ridge remains quasi-stationary over the
Great Plains, whereas the upstream troughing begins to dig south and
east towards Southern California. This will continue to SW surge of
monsoonal moisture, which will unfortunately be confined primarily
to the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. As a result, SE
Wyoming and W Nebraska will remain mostly dry and seasonably mild,
with high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday 5 to 10 degrees
above average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 415 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

Subsiding air on the west side of a shortwave and incoming
ridge will keep weather at terminals in VFR. Afternoon winds
should start subsiding after sunset and become weak and variable
at times. Overnight for KCDR and KAIA, near surface dewpoint
depressions will be only a few degree, but it is unlikely fog or
low CIGs develop. Winds do not increase much in the afternoon
Thursday given a high pressure ridge passing overhead, but a
subtle shift in direction from the north to northeast is
possible.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RV