Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

715
FXUS65 KCYS 151246
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
505 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions is in
  effect for much of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska
  Sunday.

- Fire danger will remain elevated to near-critical through at
  least Tuesday.

- A High Wind Watch has been issued for southeast Wyoming,
  mainly along and west of the Interstate 25 corridor.

- Moderate to heavy mountain snowfall is expected from Tuesday
  through Thursday this week, mainly above 8500 feet. Snowfall
  is possible over the Plains Wednesday into Thursday, followed
  by temperatures falling below seasonal averages for the end
  of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Current IR Satellite loop and surface observations show high
clouds rapidly moving east across Wyoming at this hour with
temperature readings generally in the 20s to low 30s. Some of
the more sheltered areas are reporting temps in the teens, but
peak cooling should end shortly as the high clouds move into
western Nebraska over the next few hours. Overall, tranquil
weather expected outside of fire weather concerns. Models
continue to show the upper level ridge axis moving over the
Front Range today, and then exiting to the east by late tonight
and Monday as it flattens out. Dry weather will continue with
POP near zero both today and Monday. 700mb temperatures will
continue to increase today with models showing temps between 0c
to 3c in the afternoon. Record high temperatures are still expected
across southeast Wyoming and portions of western Nebraska Sunday
afternoon with some areas close to 70 degrees, mainly for
locations below 4500 feet. Expect several of these records to
be broken. There is still some concern of forecast high cloud
cover this afternoon, which may result in mostly cloudy
conditions and slightly cooler temperatures. Either way, it
should be pleasant with locally windy conditions this afternoon
along and west of Interstate 25...but somewhat lower winds east
of I-25. Similar temperatures are expected on Monday, but record
highs for that date are warmer compared to Sunday (low 70s for
most NE panhandle sites). In addition, expect a south wind to
develop on Monday due to a developing surface low across
northern Wyoming/southern Montana. High temperatures may end up
being a few degrees cooler become of this, especially along the
Laramie Range, Pine Ridge, and Cheyenne Ridge. Will also hold
off on any fire weather headlines for Monday for this same
reason in addition to lower wind speeds.

As for winds, the main event will likely be Tuesday (see Long
Term). However, models continue to show a clear mountain wave
signature Sunday afternoon through late Sunday evening with
pretty strong downward Omega on the lee-side of the Sierra
Madre, Snowy, and even the Laramie Range. In-house wind
guidance has not increased probabilities, nor wind speeds, in
these areas, so kept winds as is for now. In fact, winds have
eased somewhat aloft, so kept gusts between 35 to 45 MPH at this
time. Surface winds and winds aloft will ease a bit on Monday
before Tuesday`s event.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Update...Previous forecast discussion for Tuesday and Wednesday
is on track with a few additions. A HIGH WIND WATCH has been
issued for most of south central Wyoming and east central
Wyoming for early Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening with
gusts of 70 MPH possible.

Models and ensembles continue to advertise the High Wind threat
on Tuesday for central Wyoming. Therefore, issued a High Wind
Watch to include most of the lower elevations of Carbon and
Albany counties. Added Converse and Platte counties, which may
have the best chance of seeing wind gust over 70 MPH due to
mountain wave activity. In-house wind guidance shows
probabilities getting close to 80 to 90 percent for Bordeaux and
east Platte County. Not as confident further south and east (east
of the Interstate 25 corridor) since models and in-house wind
guidance has backed off on forecast wind speeds and delayed some
of the timing until much later in the day. Lower confidence for
most of western Nebraska for late Tuesday afternoon and evening
as the core of the highest winds may lift north of this region,
with a secondary core expected later Tuesday night out of the
northwest. Model Omega from the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF isn`t all
that impressive for the Nebraska panhandle, so will keep winds
near criteria for now.


Previous discussion...Issued at 330 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

A parade of storm systems will continue through much of the week
ahead, keeping fairly active weather in the picture for our area.
The primary hazards will be fire weather and strong winds on Tuesday
into Wednesday, and then possibly another system with more moisture
available Wednesday into Thursday.

A powerful upper level trough will push inland from the Pacific
heading into Tuesday. A moisture laden jet stream will push up
against our mountains, likely leading to a period of moderate to
heavy orographic snowfall in the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges.
Southwest flow aloft will support strong lee cyclogenesis over
northeast Wyoming. Upwards of 90% of ensemble members have the
surface low to our north, giving fairly high confidence in westerly
downslope flow for the entirety of the High Plains on Tuesday. Winds
may start off southwest to south Tuesday morning, but the lee
cyclone to our north will begin to push eastward around midday,
dragging the surface trough to the east as well. As this occurs,
expect strong winds to overspread nearly the entire area Tuesday
afternoon. Spread still exists between the ECMWF ensemble system and
the GEFS, with the GEFS mean 700-mb wind over KCYS Tuesday afternoon
around 55 knots and the ECMWF ensemble mean around 45 knots. The
primary discrepancy appears to be the southern extent of the strong
winds aloft, as both systems are in good agreement showing 700-mb
winds exceeding 50 knots over Converse and Niobrara counties.

As of now, confidence is high in high winds for the wind prone areas
and adjacent zones in Carbon, Albany, Converse, and Platte counties.
This is near certainty already for the wind prone areas, and the
main question is just how strong can the winds get. The most likely
scenario at this time is a middle-tier high wind event for these
areas with gusts of mainly 65 to 75 mph as high wind parameters are
not quite off the charts yet, and there is not a consistent signal
for a mountain top inversion supporting significant wave breaking.
Confidence is medium for Laramie, Goshen, and Niobrara counties,
where the flow aloft is not as consistent amongst ensembles, but
most models show fairly strong subsidence. The lowest confidence is
in the Nebraska panhandle, where both the availability of
subsidence and the flow aloft are more in question. However,
the probability for high winds has still increased from prior
forecasts, hovering around 50-60% for the northern panhandle,
and 20-30% for the southern panhandle. While temperatures will
not be as warm as Sunday and Monday, Tuesday will still bring
near critical fire danger with dewpoints mainly in the teens or
even single digits. As fuels remain critically dry grass fires
will have the potential to spread very rapidly in the presence
of these strong winds. Due to the downslope flow, precipitation
will likely remain very limited along and east of the I-25
corridor. PoPs were decreased from the NBM to remove the mention
of rain and snow from the forecast. Our far northern zones
north of roughly Douglas to Chadron can still get precipitation
in northwest flow, so retained a chance for rain/snow there.

The first upper level low will push to our east Tuesday night, while
a strong pressure gradient remains in place over the plains, keeping
winds elevated. The second upper level low will be right on the
heels of the first, pushing into the area during the day on
Wednesday. The mountains may not even get much of a break in
snowfall before the next surge in orographic moisture moves in. This
trough will have a more zonally oriented jet streak aloft than the
first, which, when combined with a surface high sliding down from
the north on the backside of the first trough, will likely support
lee cyclogenesis further south. In fact, a narrow majority of
ensemble members show the surface cyclone developing over northeast
Colorado, which is favorable positioning for High Plains
precipitation. The caveat is that many show a secondary surface
low over central Wyoming (perhaps in the Wind River valley),
which could keep westerly to southwesterly surface winds in
place over Carbon, Albany, and Laramie counties and thus
suppress precipitation. As of now, confidence is highest in
seeing measurable snowfall in the mountains, and for areas of
the Plains north of the North Platte River valley. Colder air
will work in behind the second system, pushing temperatures
actually below seasonal averages which is quite rare this
season. Extreme cold is not expected, but highs in the 20s and
30s look like a good bet for Thursday through Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Upper level ridge axis will push over southeast Wyoming and the
Front Range today bringing some high level cloudiness and periods of
gusty winds in the afternoon.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will continue today and into
tonight with intervals of high level clouds for all terminals. West
to southwest winds will increase between 16z and 23z today, with
gusts of 30 to 35 knots for KLAR and KRWL, and gusts around 25 knots
for all other terminals. Winds will ease after sunset with some LLWS
possible late tonight (after 05z Monday) due to mountain wave
activity across the southeast Wyoming terminals.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for WYZ417-418-428>433.
     High Wind Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
     afternoon for WYZ101-106-107-115.
     High Wind Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening
     for WYZ104-105-109>111-113.

NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MN/TJT
AVIATION...TJT