Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

142
FXUS65 KCYS 190507
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1007 PM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak cold front this evening will bring a drop in
  temperatures and a chance for light snow.

- More widespread colder and wintry weather is possible towards
  the end of the week ahead, but uncertainty remains
  considerable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

Winds have been breezy today but nowhere near as strong as
expected, and with gradients weakening and the upper jet moving
on, look for conditions to continue to lessen through this
afternoon. Another round of breezy conditions is possible
tomorrow, but not even as strong as today under westerly to
northwesterly flow. Otherwise a weak front will pass across this
evening with a chance at some light snow, with the NBM
indicating a 25-40% probability at 0.1 inch of snow or more from
Cheyenne west across the high terrain and north through
Chugwater. High resolution guidance can`t make heads or tails of
what will happen, so for now painted a broad slight chance to
chance of precipitation across this area this evening with at
least a trace expected, but localized amounts near a half inch to
maybe even 1 inch under sustained banding can`t be ruled out.

Tomorrow is another "cool" day for this time of year as highs
drop a few degrees below normal, while morning lows will be in
the teens to single digits. Otherwise we should finally see a
quiet day after the active end of the week and weekend for the
CWA, with the next passing system expected just beyond the short
term into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

Long Term.... A possible pattern change looks to come mid to late
week as the Ridge anchored over the west coast looks to break down
allowing the Intermountain west to change from our Northwesterly
flow to a westerly flow mid week and then a southwesterly flow by
the end of the work week. Tuesday, a weak disturbance looks to pass
through the Intermountain West as we transition from Northwest to
Westerly as the ridge starts to break down. Some arctic air does
filter down into our region dropping 700mb temperatures from -2C to -
8C over the Intermountain West and High Plains. This arctic airmass
will bring more winter like temperatures to the region instead of
our tropical-ish 60`s we had in December and beginning of January.
There could be some weak snow showers as the wave pushes through but
its pretty much looking like it will be isolated to our mountain
peaks for now. Meanwhile the upper low looks to keep spinning over
the Great Lakes continuing our high winds intermittently throughout
the week. Towards the end of the week a system looks to push through
the Intermountain West giving us potential widespread snow chances
across the forecast area. However, looking at cluster analysis the
ensembles disagree to what magnitude the ridge breaks down which
could ultimately alter the course of the system and could
potentially increase or decrease our snow totals. So the potential
system at the end of the week is something to keep an eye on for
potential snow accumulations and storm track.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1006 PM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

Low ceilings expected throughout the overnight hours until around
sunrise. VFR conditions should prevail, though ceilings will be
around 5000 to 7000ft AGL. Some snow showers have begun to develop
in northern Colorado. Confidence is low on these showers moving into
the KCYS and KLAR terminals, as very dry air is currently present in
both locations. Included a PROB30 for best snowfall chances for KCYS
and KLAR. Even lower confidence in isolated snow showers impacting
the KRWL terminal, but still included a PROB30 group. Skies clear
out through the morning, with gusty winds and clear skies expected
through in the afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...AM