Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

126
FXUS65 KCYS 271743
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1043 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warnings remain in effect through Friday evening and
  Saturday morning.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through Saturday evening
  for most locations.

- Warmer, drier weather expected over the next few days before
  precipitation chances start increasing Sunday
  afternoon/evening and onwards.

- Multiple rounds of precipitation possible through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1252 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Warm and dry conditions are expected to persist through the weekend
as upper-level ridge remains in place and dry, downslope flow
continues through Saturday morning. Stout northwesterly flow in
ongoing aloft and throughout much of the atmosphere as the CWA
remain sandwiched between the larger upper-level ridge to the
southwest and a broad upper-level trough over southern Canada. As a
result, 700mb flow remains elevated all day today and into the
morning hours on Saturday as 700mb height gradients remain elevated.
A 50 to 55kt 700mb jet will be across the region most of the day,
but a brief lull between about 11AM and 5PM will result in a slight
decrease in winds across the wind prones this morning into the
afternoon hours. A reinforcing, subtle, 700mb shortwave will pass
through this evening, leading to the increasing winds expected
starting around 5PM today. In-house guidance is strongly in favor of
strong to high winds continuing throughout the day, so even though a
lull is possible, winds will still be very gusty. High Wind Warnings
remain in effect through 5PM this evening, for central Laramie
County, and 11 AM Saturday for the typical wind prone locations. The
Warning has also been expanded to include central Carbon County
until 2 AM Saturday morning. Winds will slowly taper off Saturday
morning as 700mb gradients start to relax as the 700mb low moves far
enough away to prevent significantly impacting the region.

As usual, with the strong winds across the region, temperatures will
be quite warm again today and Saturday with highs in the mid-50s to
mid-60s east of the Laramie Range and low-50s west. Similarly,
Saturday will feature temperatures in the low-50s to mid-60s east of
the Laramie Range and mid-50s west. With strong, downsloping winds
going on day 4 or 5 across the region, very dry conditions are
expected to continue both today and Saturday. On Friday, afternoon
minimum relative humidity values will tank into the 10-16% range
with very poor recoveries expected overnight, likely only 30-45%.
Dry conditions persist Saturday, with afternoon humidity values
dropping back into the 10-16% range once again. Therefore, the Red
Flag Warning remains in effect through Saturday evening for the
southern zones and Friday evening for the northern zones.
Thankfully, moisture is set to return Sunday into early next week,
limiting fire weather concerns to start the week.

Warm conditions are expected once again on Sunday as upper-level
ridging remains across the western CONUS. However, a lobe of strong
500mb cyclonic vorticity advection is expected to traverse overhead
Sunday morning into the afternoon and evening hours. This will push
the upper-level ridge further north and east, and advecting a 700mb
shortwave through and away from the region. A small amount of
moisture to push northward throughout the day in association with
the 700mb shortwave, leading to lessening fire weather concerns and
increasing precipitation chances, mainly in the mountains. As this
shortwave pushes through, 700mb flow turns more westerly to even
southwesterly across the higher terrain in Carbon County. Therefore,
moist upslope flow is expected to develop, leading to increasing
precipitation chances in the mountains. These showers may slowly
spread north and east away from the mountains towards the later
evening hours, leading to fairly widespread 40-60% chances for
precipitation. Given the warmer temperatures, this precipitation
should fall as rain, as temperatures will be in the 50s at
precipitation onset time. Enjoy?

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

More active weather is set to return for the start of the work week
as an upper-level trough moves into the western CONUS, ejecting
Pacific moisture and 500mb vorticity lobes out ahead of it. This
trough will slowly move inland throughout the day Monday and into
the early morning hours on Tuesday, likely impacting the region
starting Tuesday morning through Wednesday. There is very good model
agreement now between the GFS and ECMWF on the track of this upper-
level low, as well as timing of when it reaches the CWA. If
anything, the GFS may be just a touch quicker with the trough`s
movement as compared to the ECMWF, but the difference is nominal at
best. The GFS is definitely faster with the propagation of the 500mb
shortwave associated with the upper-level trough. By Wednesday
morning, the GFS has the 500mb trough over eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa, while the ECMWF is much farther behind only over
northeastern Colorado. Looking at 700mb, the differences look nearly
identical to the differences at 500mb. The GFS kicks the 700mb
shortwave out of the area and into eastern Nebraska/western Iowa by
Wednesday morning, with the ECMWF still over eastern
Colorado/western Kansas. Both long range models do appear to have
shifted the system slightly further north, though not an overly
significant amount. The result of all of this is that the GFS
suggests a quicker hitting system that only impacts the region from
about Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning, while the ECMWF
suggests a longer duration event with the system impacting the
region starting very early Tuesday morning and finally leaving the
region in the early morning hours Thursday. The GFS would bring less
precipitation to the region, while the ECMWF would likely bring more
for a longer period of time. The ECMWF solution would, most
definitely, be preferred given the dry winter we have seen thus far.
However, there is still some uncertainty with this system.

For the remaining portions of the week, another upper-level trough
is progged to push through the region, likely resulting in another
round of precipitation chances. However, there are much more
significant differences between long range models at this time as
far as position, timing, and strength goes. The GFS suggests some
semblance of a Colorado Low, while the ECMWF keeps the system
farther south and east. Either way, precipitation does look
increasingly possible late week, though the exact amount is still
very uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1024 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period.

WYOMING TAFS: The main aviation hazard remains strong gusty
winds and occasional LLWS. Expect widespread strong winds
gusting generally 35 to 45 knots this afternoon. There will be
occasional lulls overnight in strong gusty winds at the surface,
but expect to find LLWS during these periods. Widspread and
consistent wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots will return mid
Saturday morning.

NEBRASKA TAFS: Wind gusts to around 25 knots are expected at
KBFF, KSNY, and KAIA into the early evening, with KSNY
experiencing similar gusts returning overnight into the end of
the period. A few brief gusts up to around 40 knots will remain
possible through the early afternoon at KSNY. Around 20 knots
of speed shear around FL020 is expected overnight particularly
at KSNY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for WYZ417-418.
     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for WYZ430>433.
     High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Saturday for WYZ106-110-116-
     117.
     High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST Saturday for WYZ109.
     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ118.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for NEZ434-435.
     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for NEZ436-437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MN/NB