Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

485
FXUS65 KCYS 312053
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
253 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and unsettled weather will remain in place through
  Wednesday night with several chances for rain showers.

- A nocturnal low-level jet is expected to bring strong, gusty
  southerly winds to the High Plains tonight into Wednesday
  morning.

- Accumulating snow is expected for the higher mountains above
  9000 ft in elevation tonight through Wednesday evening.

- Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
  Wednesday afternoon and evening. A brief period of strong
  winds may occur along Interstate 80 behind this activity.

- After a brief warmup Thursday, another strong cold front will
  sweep through the area and bring additional chances for rain,
  snow, and high winds Thursday afternoon into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Unsettled weather has finally returned to the area after nearly
three weeks of record warmth and high fire danger. Cooler than
average temperatures prevail along and east of the Laramie Range,
but the cold front did not quite make it west of the mountains, so
mild temperatures continue in Carbon and Albany counties. Shower
activity has been quite limited so far. Even though we have ample
moisture in place aloft, forcing is weak today. Elevated shower
activity will increase in coverage this afternoon and evening,
especially along the Laramie Range where low-level convergence will
help force some activity. Minimal instability in place may allow for
a few lightning strikes.

Overnight, we will begin to see a few changes as the next Pacific
trough approaches from the west. Increasing moisture and westerly
flow will initiate moist orographic lift in the mountains.
Integrated water vapor transport values are near climatological
maximums over Colorado, but southern Wyoming will be on the edge of
the moisture plume with values around the 97.5 percentile. Expect
mountain snowfall to kick up overnight and continue through
Wednesday morning, before becoming more showery during the afternoon
and early evening hours. Further east, the surface ridge axis will
pass by our area. Meanwhile, the approaching trough will support
rapidly falling surface pressure over central Wyoming, which will
increase the reverse pressure gradient over the High Plains. South
to southeast winds will increase this evening and continue into
Wednesday morning. Widespread wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph can be
expected, with a chance for a few gusts over 60 mph, mainly along
the Pine Ridge. Confidence was too low in exceeding this threshold
to issue any High Wind products, but this will need to be monitored
through the evening.

This system continues to trend slower, such that now the window for
the best low elevation precipitation does not begin until around
midday Wednesday. The 700-mb low will become better defined over
western Wyoming during the day tomorrow, which should help produce
stronger isentropic lift over the High Plains. Forecast soundings
show strong instability over the area, at least for this time of
year, with SBCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg along and west of the
Laramie Range. Lastly, we will have cyclonic vorticity advection
aloft helping to support large-scale lift over the area. Expect
numerous to widespread showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms
to develop. By mid afternoon, models show the central Wyoming
surface low falling apart, allowing the strengthening lee cyclone
over central Colorado to take over. As surface pressure rises from
west to east, this may provide a focus to organize shower activity
into the early evening hours as the frontal boundary from the west
becomes absorbed into the developing cyclone. We will also need to
watch for another round of strong winds developing for 3 to 6 hours
behind this front. Strong cyclogenesis is a good reason to lean on
the higher end for wind speeds, so winds were adjusted to the NBM
90th percentile along the I-80 corridor Wednesday evening. In-house
guidance depicts approximately a 20-30% probability for high winds
during this time along I-80 in southeast Wyoming, but this will need
to be monitored over the next few forecast cycles as well.
Precipitation should come to an end around midnight Wednesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The long term forecast remains on track with a potent upper-level
trough coming ashore Thursday and quickly making its way eastward
throughout the day. This trough will bring cooler temperatures and
precipitation chances to the CWA for the end of the work week. By
Thursday afternoon, the trough will enter western Wyoming, with
precipitation creeping into Carbon and Albany Counties. The cold
front associated with this trough will be rather strong, advecting
much colder air into the region very quickly. While precipitation
may start as rain Thursday afternoon, it may quickly change to snow
with the frontal passage. This raises concerns for snow squall
potential as there will be minor instability out west with blustery
conditions from a strong MSLP gradient. A flash freeze behind the
front is also in question depending how quickly temperatures drop
and when precipitation arrives. Snow will likely continue into the
overnight hours for areas west of the Laramie Range with some
accumulation possible for the lower elevations. High winds may also
develop late Thursday night/early Friday morning. With the leeside
trough and a high pressure building in northwest Colorado, a strong
MSLP gradient will develop over the western half of the CWA. Winds
aloft will increase up to 55 kts over the wind prones with strong
subsidence to bring these winds down to the surface. In-house
guidance gives most of the wind prone and wind prone adjacent areas
about a 50 percent of hitting high winds. The window for high winds
will likely be brief, with winds starting to weaken by Friday
afternoon.

Models have come into better agreement regarding the upper-level
closed low associated with the trough. Both the GFS and ECMWF track
the low across the northern border of the CWA, however the models
differ on precipitation amounts and placement. The GFS is dryer,
primarily because of the strong downsloping winds off the Laramie
Range. Downsloping winds will help dry out the low and mid-levels,
keeping precipitation out of most of most of the Interstate 25
corridor. As a result, the GFS keeps most of the precipitation in
the northern zones of the CWA. The ECMWF erodes the downsloping
winds fairly quickly, bringing wrap around moisture a bit farther
south in the North Platte River Valley. However, it still keeps the
Interstate 80 corridor east of Cheyenne rather dry. Regardless of
which solution comes to fruition, both have much colder high
temperatures on Friday behind the front. Highs will mainly be in the
30s and 40s. These colder temperatures mean precipitation could fall
as snow, or at least a rain/snow mix. At this time, cannot rule out
some lower elevation accumulations for areas east of the Laramie
Range, but for now, the most confidence in accumulation remains in
the high terrain.

Once the trough moves out of the region, a return to warmer and
drier conditions can be expected as upper-level ridging takes its
place. Cold air aloft will still be in place Saturday, so the return
to above average temperatures will happen on Sunday with highs in
the 50s and upper 60s. Warm and dry conditions will persist at least
through mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Nebraska TAFS...For Chadron and Alliance, ceilings will be near 4500
feet until 12Z, with a chance of rain showers reducing visibilities
to 5 miles and ceilings to 3000 feet until 00Z, then ceilings will
improve to 8000 feet after 12Z. Winds will gust to 25 knots at
Chadron until 12Z Wednesday, and gust to 33 knots at Alliance through
the period.

For Scottsbluff and Sidney, ceilings will range from 5000 to 10000
feet, except near 3500 feet at Scottsbluff until 20Z. There will be
a chance of showers at Scottsbluff from 01Z to 06Z, reducing
visibilities to 5 miles and ceilings to 3000 feet.

Wyoming TAFS...Ceilings this morning are hovering in the lower-
end VFR category for Wyoming terminals. Ceilings are expected
to lift going into the afternoon to around 15000 feet with some
lower cloud ceilings to 7000 feet. On and off showers are
possible throughout the day which may drop the ceilings to
around 7000 feet and dip visibilities to 4 or 5 statue miles.
The best odds of rain occur around 21z to 00z. Winds are
expected to be breezy with KCYS and KLAR receiving gusts to 30
knots. Overnight light rain showers chances continue, but
greatly increase going into the morning hours as the upper-level
trough propagates east. At the end of the valid forecast period
widespread showers and low ceilings are expected with the
possibility terminals make it to MVFR conditions before 18z
tomorrow.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 PM MDT
     Wednesday for WYZ112-114.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...RUBIN/RV