Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

659
FXUS65 KCYS 170929
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
329 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread snowfall is expected Thursday night through Friday,
  with accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in the Winter Weather
  Advisories, and a dusting to 2 inches outside of the
  Advisories.

- Winter-like temperatures in the teens to low 20s are expected
  by Saturday morning, creating a risk for outdoor irrigation
  and sensitive vegetation that has emerged from winter dormancy
  early.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Blustery conditions continue behind the strong cold front that moved
through earlier Thursday night. Precipitation behind the front so
far has been minimal, with only a few sites across the forecast area
reporting snow. Currently, most snow is falling in Carbon and
Converse Counties, with webcams from these areas showing light
accumulations on grassy areas. As the surface low continues to track
southeast with front, precipitation will fill in further eastward
into extreme southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle. Hi-Res
guidance like the HRRR shows precipitation moving into the areas by
mid-Friday morning and continuing into the afternoon hours.
Stratiform precipitation will start to transition to more
shower-like precipitation later in the afternoon as some peaks
of sun could lead to pockets of instability. Model soundings
from the GFS show up to a few hundred joules of CAPE during the
afternoon hours which could lead to some spotty showers once the
stratiform moves out. Snow accumulations with this progressive
front will be on the lighter side, with the greatest
accumulations expected west of the Laramie Range and in Converse
County. Here, most locations are in a Winter Weather Advisory
for roughly 2 to 4 inches of snow. Synoptic ensembles also are
generally on board with these totals as well as Hi-Res guidance.
On the east side of the Laramie Range, snow totals are expected
to be less, with anywhere from a dusting to 2 inches expected.
Given the warm ground temperatures further east, it is possible
that snow will not stick, however, decent snowfall rates may
overcome the warm ground and lead to minor accumulations. Any
remaining showers will taper off during the evening hours on
Friday, leading to a chilly overnight. Clearing skies and calmer
winds will lead to overnight lows falling into the teens and
low 20s across the area.

High pressure will begin to build into the Rockies on Saturday as
upper-level ridging takes hold of western CONUS. The ridge will
begin to push cold air out of the region allowing warmer air to take
its place. High temperatures on Saturday will be much warmer than
Friday, however still below normal for this time of year. West of
the Laramie Range, highs are expected to be in the 40s, while
temperatures east of the range will be in the 50s. Highs will
be roughly 5 to 8 degrees below average for mid-April. With the
ridge building in, precipitation chances will be minimal, but
cannot rule out a stray shower in the northern Nebraska
panhandle as residual moisture and energy from the trough push
out during the afternoon.

The return to warmer and drier weather is expected on Sunday. 700 mb
temperatures will climb back above 0C, leading to above average
highs in the 60s and 70s. Subsidence under the ridge will
ensure that mostly sunny skies keep conditions dry with no
precipitation chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The long term period will begin under a high amplitude mid-level
ridge resulting in dry conditions with above-average temperatures,
translating to forecast highs in the mid to upper 60s east of the
Laramie Range with 50s further west. Longwave ridging will remain in
place over Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska heading into
Monday, resulting in median 700 mb temperatures exceeding the 95th
percentile for our entire area per LREF guidance. While this won`t
translate to record-breaking high temperatures at the surface (76
degrees is the record for Cheyenne, recorded back in 1989), we will
continue to see anomalously warm temperatures of 15-20 degrees above
climatology. Mean 700 mb flow looks to be rather relaxed at around
20 knots, so high wind highlights aren`t anticipated at this time.
This is supported by in-house random forest guidance which has the
wind-prone areas at < 20% probabilities of meeting high wind
criteria. However with ensemble guidance showing 75th percentile
wind gusts exceeding 20 mph and RH values of 15-20%, fire weather
highlights may be needed as we get closer to Monday. Any beneficial
moisture we can get from the system on Friday and earlier in the
weekend would help mitigate these concerns.

Tuesday, the ridge axis will be situated over the eastern half of
Wyoming with 500 mb heights exceeding the 90th percentile relative
to climatology. Unsurprisingly, this will be accompanied by another
day of high temperatures around 20 degrees above-average. In fact,
some of our Nebraska counties will likely exceed 80 degrees. On
Wednesday the ridge axis will shift east of Wyoming and Western
Nebraska ahead of a closed 500 mb low, placing us in broad SW mid-
level flow. While large-scale forcing for ascent appears rather
weak, ensemble guidance is hinting at a narrow band of enhanced 700
mb frontogenesis east of the Laramie Range. This mesoscale forcing
for ascent will become more clear and quantifiable in future
forecasts, however in combination with PWAT anomalies around the
90th percentile, a chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
seems appropriate at this time, most likely confined to the higher
terrain. Thursday will continue to be unsettled, however
temperatures look to remain above-average as we remain in a SW flow
regime.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1108 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Complex forecast tonight as snow showers slowly spread across
the area with cloud decks dropping into the MVFR to IFR
categories overnight. Snow showers have started at KRWL as of
the 06Z TAF issuance and are expected to slowly spread eastward
overnight. IFR conditions likely under the heaviest snow bands,
with ceilings dropping at or below 1000ft AGL and visibility
dropping around 1 to 3 miles. Snow continues overnight and
through the early afternoon hours. A rain/snow mix may develop
across the Panhandle terminals as temperatures slowly warm
tomorrow. However, poor conditions expected to continue through
the late afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for WYZ101.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for
     WYZ103>105-109>111-113.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AM