Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

779
FXUS65 KCYS 110039
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
639 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A few updates early this evening for mainly southeast
Wyoming...(1) Cancelled the High Wind Watch for the Elk
Mountain/Arlington area and the I-80 Summit for tonight only
(the High Wind Watch for late Wednesday through Thursday is
separate). With the cold front moving towards the Colorado
border, expect a brief lull in the winds tonight.

(2) Will closely monitor the bands of moderate snow moving south
across the area. Observations across southeast Wyoming and the
I-80 corridor show quarter mile to half mile visibility and
webcams showing some of the snow starting to stick to the
roadways. If this keeps up for another hour, will likely need a
short-fused Winter Weather Advisory. For now, adjusted
accumulations and lowered snowlevels to valley floors.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring a chance for light snow this evening.

- A widespread, locally damaging wind event is still on track
  for Thursday. Widespread gusts of 60 to 80 mph are possible,
  with potential for localized gusts up to 100 mph in the wind
  prone areas across southeast Wyoming.

- Very strong winds are expected to continue through at least
  Saturday ahead of the next chance for precipitation Saturday
  into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

At the tail end of this forecast period we will see the start of a
prolonged high wind event that will begin late Wednesday and persist
into the weekend, more on that in the long term discussion. In the
meantime, a shortwave aloft along with a surface cold front will
dive south across the CWA today/tonight. This will be the catalyst
for increased precipitation chances, first rain and then transition
to light snow as colder air filters in. Hi-res guidance shows this
swath of light precipitation sliding across the CWA from the
northwest to southeast this evening. As the precipitation
transitions to light snow, little to no accumulations are expected
at lower elevations. Higher elevations along with points north of
the North Platte River Valley may see minor accumulations of an inch
or slightly more. This is all short-lived though as the cold front
and associated upper level trough pushes off to the east, weak
ridging moves back in along with dry northwest flow for Wednesday.

Now lets take a look at winds for the rest of this afternoon, a weak
jet over the region will bring an uptick of winds through tonight,
strongest in our wind prones along I-80 (Arlington and the South
Laramie Range). We do have High Wind Watches in place; however, due
to a lack of upper level support, winds may briefly exceed high wind
threshold, so we will keep it a watch for now. Most of Wednesday
will be relatively benign with dry condition and "lighter" winds in
place, for most of the day. Then, by the evening hours, a 65 knot
700mb jet pushes in along with ample subsidence, this will kick
start a stretch of powerful winds that begins through the overnight
hours into Thursday. High Wind Watches are in place across most of
southeast Wyoming starting Wednesday night, primarily along the I-25
corridor and points west.

A quick look at temperatures over the next few days, after a cool
morning due to low stratus, temperatures have rebounded nicely as
highs will top out in the 40s to 50s this afternoon, expect cooler
temperatures to hold firm north of the North Platte River Valley. As
the aforementioned cold front dives south this evening, expect
Wednesday`s highs to be a tad cooler with highs topping out in
the 40s for many locations across the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The long-term forecast period will be highlighted by an extremely
windy period from Thursday through Friday, and then the possibility
of some wintry weather from Saturday night through early Monday
morning. A potent Pacific jet will be in place over the northern
Rockies on Friday morning, with southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska on the southern periphery of this feature. Extremely fast
flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere is noted on all model
guidance, with favorable near-surface flow in a cross-barrier
orientation. This, combined with extremely strong pressure and
height gradients between the southwest CONUS ridge and broad trough
over central NOAM, will result in a very favorable setup for high
winds over southeast Wyoming and stretching eastward into the
Nebraska Panhandle. Current machine-learning guidance estimates over
a 90% probability of exceeding high-wind guidance in the typical
Wyoming wind prone areas of I-80 and along I-25. As favorable
downslope flow and strong negative omega fields move eastward on
Thursday afternoon, gusty winds exceeding high wind criteria of 50
knots are likely (over 60%) in Cheyenne proper, with around a 50%
chance of exceeding high wind criteria farther eastward. While it is
all but certain that the current High Wind Watches will need
upgrading to High Wind Warnings, we have opted to keep this long-
duration event as a watch until today`s potential wind event ends
this evening. Expect an update to a strongly-worded High Wind
Warning in upcoming forecast packages lasting from Thursday through
potentially as long as Saturday.

Fire weather conditions will also have to be watched along and east
of I-25 on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. At the moment, Relative
Humidity values are not quite low enough to exceed criteria.
However, with such strong winds in place and limited moisture in the
forecast, we may ultimately need to emphasize the fire weather risk
regardless, especially in the Nebraska panhandle where confidence is
highest on poor overnight RH recovery and an extremely dry profile
throughout the end of the week and weekend.

The past several runs of guidance have trended upward with the
chances for precipitation from Saturday night through Sunday. The
potent Pacific jet stream will carry a weak trough/vort max into the
PACNW coast on Friday into Saturday, which will quickly traverse the
Rockies and deepen as it heads toward the high plains. Ensemble
forecast guidance has come into better agreement with regard to a
strong cold front surging southward with this system late on
Saturday into Sunday, which will affect the entire northern
Rockies/High Plains region. As this front dives southward and the
aforementioned trough moves in from the northwest, forecast
soundings show increasing saturation in the boundary layer on
Saturday night with somewhat favorable upslope northerly and
possibly northeasterly flow for most of the Laramie and Snowy ranges
as well as the eastern high plains. Total QPF averages from the GEFS
particularly have increased, whereas EMCWF ensemble guidance averages
remain a bit lower. Still, there is increasing confidence that a
light snow event may affect much of the area on Saturday night
through Sunday in a very cold, post-frontal airmass. Advisory-level
accumulations may be in the works for both the higher terrain and
possibly areas along and east of I-25. Very high confidence exists
in below-average temperatures for Sunday, possibly lasting into
early next week before temperatures rebound.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A strong cold front will move into southern Wyoming and stall early
this evening before moving into Colorado later tonight. This front
will bring periods of light to occasionally moderate snow along with
windy conditions, with periods of rain/snow mix changing to all snow
for western Nebraska.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: Tricky Aviation forecast this evening and
tonight mainly because of timing of the bands of snow. Believe KCDR
and KAIA have the best chance to see prolonged IFR conditions due to
rain changing to snow this evening, so added prevailing IFR between
02z and 09z. KLAR, KCYS, and KBFF have a decent chance at seeing
light to moderate snow and IFR or near IFR conditions around the
same time(s), but probabilities are generally below 30 percent so
added TEMPO or PROB30 to address this concern. Otherwise, gusty
north to northwest winds are expected with gusts between 25 to 35
knots. Conditions are expected to gradually improve after 12z early
Wednesday morning with VFR conditions expected.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Saturday
     evening for WYZ101-104>107-109-113-115>118.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for WYZ102-108-119.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Saturday
     evening for WYZ110.

NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...TJT