Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

454
FXUS65 KCYS 042320
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
520 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue
  into the next week.

- Fire weather concerns will increase on Monday alongside a
  chance at record high temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Overall the forecast remains largely similar to the previous
few updates with hardly any changes anticipated. Tonight we`ll
see a few clouds possible as the ridge controlling the region
begins to flatten out a bit more and weaken in response to
troughing well to the north of us. However, this moisture will
be mostly upper level, as our surface dewpoints remain
critically low. This alongside significantly warmer than average
temperatures on Monday will produce critically low RH values,
and with breezy winds expected from a loosely enhanced pressure
gradient, critical fire weather conditions are expected. The
Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning in
response to this, valid from noon through 6 PM. Highs remain on
track to sit 20 degrees above normal as 700mb temperatures are
set to peak between 12 to 15C. Not only will daily highs be in
jeopardy with this warmth, but a few monthly highs could be tied
or possibly broken with this warmth as well. And overnight lows
as well could reach record warmth as we move into Tuesday
morning with widespread 50`s expected. Tuesday should be a few
degrees cooler thanks to the weakening of the ridge, but we`ll
still see near record highs with widespread upper 70`s to mid
80`s once again. Critical fire weather conditions should relax
on Tuesday as, while elevated thanks to low RH values once
again, winds should lessen enough that a critical environment
will not be present.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Not a whole lot of interesting developments in the long term from
previous forecasts. A weak NW flow regime is in place while an upper
level low bats back the ridge to our south. The weaker ridging
pattern will allow temperatures to lower a tad Wednesday through the
end of the forecast period, which is a plus. Highs in the 80s east
and 70s out west. Lows in the 50s and 40s. Humidity values stay low,
in the low 20s and teens and winds start increasing ahead of the
next Pacific trough. Global models are starting to come into focus
on this system. The evolution is still uncertain, particularly on
how compact and amplified this trough enters the scene, but the
presence of this system is becoming more certain. A compact system
would bring greater southwesterly winds. Not the greatest news when
combined with the dry afternoon humidities for elevated fire
concerns next weekend.

The ensembles start diverging greatly on Sunday. A cold
front in some of the solutions is driving a nearly 10 to 25 degree
spread in ensemble members. A good cold front and Pacific system
would bring in rain and storms. Temperatures would still be on the
warm side for snow, outside of mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail across most of the terminals
for the duration of this TAF period. Overnight, a few low level
clouds may develop and effect KBFF and KAIA. Winds, generally, will
become variable and less than 10 knots. Heading into Monday, with
the diurnal cycle, winds ramp back up by 17Z for the Wyoming
terminals out of the northwest with gusts between 20 to 25 knots.
Otherwise, with a persistent ridge in place, expect more of the same
on Monday with mainly clear skies across the CWA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Monday for WYZ418>422-
     427-430-432.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...RZ