Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

418
FXUS65 KCYS 281144
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
544 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern will continue into the weekend
  with daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and
  thunderstorms.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms could be possible Friday and
  into the beginning of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 325 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026

Today is a wash, rinse, and repeat of yesterday. Some showers may
produce this morning as skies remain overcast through the day. The
upper level low will remain cutoff from the main upper level flow. A
stream of vorticity looks to eject from the cutoff low to give us a
chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. With the overcast
skies limiting convective initiation, shower coverage looks very
limited today as well as very limited shear needed to sustain any
shower/storm potential. There is a slight possibility of showers
lingering into the overnight period however forcing seems to wane
into the overnight period leading to low confidence in showers past
8pm. Friday, the upper level low will push into Utah  becoming
slightly negatively tilted by Friday afternoon. The RRFS suggests a
couple pockets of 30 knot shear but, hi-res guidance generally
depicts weak to no shear aloft. Therefore showers will have trouble
utilizing CAPE and intensify into a possible thunderstorm. Most hi-
res models paint a diagonal band of MUCAPE between 1500 and 2500
from Converse county, WY to Cheyenne county, NE. For now, a brief
period of convection capable of producing wet microbursts is
possible Friday afternoon into the evening hours before capping
looks to return across the region. Uncertainty is fairly high at
this time, due to the capping element as well as the uncertainty in
sufficient lift across the region. However, there is a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 5) for severe weather on Friday across far southeast
Wyoming and western Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

An active, but very messy, pattern is in store for southeast Wyoming
and western Nebraska through the mid-term and long-term forecast
periods. Upper-level troughing will broadly be the dominant upper-
level feature throughout the next week or so. Starting Friday, an
upper-level trough and low will dig across Nevada and Utah, taking
on a stout negative tilt by Friday afternoon with strong southerly
flow throughout the atmosphere across the CWA. The NAM suggests
between 2500 and 3200 J/kg of MUCAPE across western Nebraska late
Friday afternoon into the early evening hours, but minimal to no
shear to support the significant CAPE values. Therefore, organized
storms may be difficult to reach. However, forecast soundings from
the NAM across the southern Panhandle suggests Precipitable Water
values of 1.2in, SBCAPE values of 3600 J/kg, and DCAPE values of 840
J/kg all suggest the potential for wet microbursts across western
Nebraska, if storm initiation can occur. As of this forecast
package, the biggest question for this set up will be whether there
is enough forcing with the upper-level trough digging through and/or
the 500mb vorticity lobes ejecting across the region, as well as the
possibility of remaining capped all day due to low-level overcast
cloud coverage. For now, a brief period of convection capable of
producing wet microbursts is possible Friday afternoon into the
evening hours before capping looks to return across the region.
Uncertainty is fairly high at this time, due to the capping element
as well as the uncertainty in sufficient lift across the region.
However, there is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather
on Friday across far southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska.

The upper-level low will continue to impact the region through
Saturday through Tuesday due to the messy evolution of this upper-
level system. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest the upper-level low
closing off on Saturday and rotating northward along the Rocky
Mountains before a secondary low pushes into the Pacific Northwest.
This low will rotate across the region and head northward before a
more defined trough develops Monday night into Tuesday and finally
moves off to the east by early Thursday morning. With some version
of troughing or upper-level lows across the CWA for multiple days,
it is looking to be a fairly wet next several days with daily
chances for afternoon showers and storms. Additionally, upper-level
trough will keep surface temperatures quite comfortable with daily
high temperatures Friday through Wednesday in the 70s and low-80s
for all locations across the CWA. 700mb flow will largely see some
for of troughing or 700mb lows throughout the next week or so,
further supporting daily shower and storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026

High based clouds are providing overcast conditions to much of
the terminals today. There is a chance for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, but recent model guidance has only
kept it over the Wyoming Terminals between 20 and 24z. However,
if the sky starts to partially clear that may be enough to
destabilize the region in the afternoon and evening. Winds are
going to be from the south and gradually increasing up to 30
knots from KCYS and east.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for WYZ116>118.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MM