Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

397
FXUS65 KCYS 152102
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
202 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A widespread strong to locally damaging wind event remains on
  track for much of the area this evening through Friday.

- A strong cold front this evening will bring a brief window for
  locally intense snow showers and the potential for a flash
  freeze.

- High winds may continue through Sunday in the wind prone
  areas.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
  daily through at least Saturday due to gusty winds, low
  humidity, and dry fuels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

Its showtime, today marks the start of a multi-day strong wind event
across the High Plains. First, lets look at the 500mb level and the
main player, a strong shortwave pushing south into our CWA around
midnight tonight. This feature will ride along the western flank of
a robust upper level low and associated trough that dives south out
of Canada and into the Great Lakes Region. As such, northwest to
northerly flow will feed right into the CWA for the duration of the
short term period. Then a 700mb jet max, northwest winds of 75
knots, will enter the picture around midnight tonight, with the
focal point of maximum winds across southern portions of the
Nebraska Panhandle. As more energy at 500mb rotates in on
Friday, the 700mb jet will have another surge of stronger winds
that will peak near 80 knots by 5pm Friday, with the core of max
winds once again over the Nebraska Panhandle. The 700mb jet
doesn`t let up, with continued upper level support, winds will
remain near 75 knots for the remainder of this forecast period.
With ample subsidence, negative Omega (GFS), these stronger
winds will mix down to the surface and ensembles are showing
high probabilities of widespread gusts 60 to 75 mph over much of
the High Plains this evening into Friday afternoon. I-80, west
of I-25, will not be immune, some of the strong winds will
impact the wind prones from Arlington to Cheyenne, as gusts here
too could top out at 80 mph. With all this wind talk, we have a
litany of High Wind Warnings out, varying start/end times and
duration, for essentially all the forecast zones from I-25 and
east, including those in the Nebraska Panhandle.

So, for the rest of today, what will we see? One thing I forgot to
mention in the previous paragraph, the prevailing direction of winds
for this event will be northwesterly. So, this afternoon a cold
front will slide south across the region, this will bring the initial
burst of winds, 25 to 40 mph gusting to 50 mph, and for a few hours
change the wind direction to northerly. Also, this front will, as hi-
res guidance depicts, increase chances of precipitation, primarily
snow showers, starting sometime around 5pm this afternoon for our
northern forecast zones, a bit later for our southern zones. One of
the things of concern with this front is the possibility of
snow squalls as parameters we look for are there. The threat
begins in the Nebraska Panhandle first then finishing up near
the Laramie Range this evening. Even though these bands may
produce heavy snow, the duration and coverage isn`t there, as
such, we are only expecting a dusting to maybe an inch of snow for
a few isolated places.

The other thing we are monitoring closely are the elevated fire
weather concerns today and possibly critical tomorrow. Even though
some of the parameters we look for are not there and even with
temperatures near freezing, will be discussed in a bit, the strong
winds and dry fuels will bring the risk of critical grassland fire
danger, especially Friday afternoon. Now switching to temperatures,
700mb temps will tank through Friday, so enjoy the warmth of today
as highs Friday will feel much different. So, highs today will top
out in the 40s west of I-25 and 50s to the east. Then wintertime
temperatures return with highs Friday struggling to reach 30F. Lows
tonight, behind the cold front, will be the start of a few colder
nights as lows plummet into the teens and single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

The long term will start off cold and windy as a strong arctic
trough circles the Great Lake Region on Saturday. The CWA will feel
the effects of this cold airmass, with 700 mb temperatures as cold
as -16C. This will lead to high temperatures likely colder than
freezing for most of the forecast area. The 250 mb jet on the
backside of the trough will also pass through the CWA, leading to
continued windy conditions for areas east of the Laramie Range. 50
MPH wind gusts can be expected in these areas. These strong gusts
will also lead to wind chills in the single digits to 20s throughout
the day. Winds will ease during the evening hours on Saturday.

Temperatures will warm up briefly on Sunday as the arctic trough
pushes further east out of the Great Lakes Region. High temperatures
will be near-average for mid-January, though some breeziness will
still lead to a chilly day. Temperatures will dip once again on
Monday as a cold front moves across the region Sunday night. Cannot
rule out some light snow showers with the frontal passage, however
the origin of the airmass is rather dry, so accumulations would not
be likely. High temperatures on Monday will be about 10 degrees
cooler than Sunday, with highs dropping back down to slightly below
average.

The next few days will feature a return to above average
temperatures and drier conditions as a weak ridge returns to western
CONUS. However, breezy to windy conditions can still be expected
based on the location of the 250 mb jet.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1020 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

The biggest widespread threat to aviation operations in this TAF
period will be gusty northwest winds. At varying times and
magnitude, all terminals except KRWL will be impacted with gusts up
to 50 knots, possibly higher at times. There will be a period of
time winds will shift northerly with the passage of a cold front,
north to south, between 23Z and 05Z. Expect gusts to 50 knots with
this FROPA and a band of snow showers, if a band hits a terminal
expect conditions to drop to MVFR or IFR. However, confidence
remains low, so I only included PROB30 groups and VCSH in the
TAFs. Otherwise, outside from the FROPA, aviation conditions
should be primarily VFR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Friday
     for WYZ101-102-107-108.
     High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Friday
     for WYZ118-119.
     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to noon MST Saturday
     for WYZ110-116-117.
     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Saturday
     for WYZ115.
NE...High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Friday
     for NEZ002-003-019>021-095-096.
     High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Friday
     for NEZ054-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...RZ