Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

578
FXUS65 KCYS 220827
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
227 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all areas east of the
  Laramie Range until Wednesday evening as critical fire
  conditions are expected.

- Strong wind gusts caused by downburst winds are possible
  Wednesday afternoon, though the Marginal Risk has moved east
  of the CWA.

- A widespread, high wind event looks likely Wednesday afternoon
  through Thursday evening for most of southeast Wyoming. All
  High Wind Watches in southeast Wyoming have been upgraded to
  High Wind Warnings, while Watches remain in effect for western
  Nebraska.

- A cooler weather pattern with more frequent chances for precipitation
  will take over Thursday and last into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A tale of two worlds over the next couple of days as the upper-level
ridge leading to warmth and fairly light winds shifts off to the
east and a strong, upper-level trough moves in from the west. Strong
southerly to southwesterly flow will develop aloft later this
afternoon as the upper-level trough attempts to strengthen across
Idaho. Strong 500mb vorticity advection will accompany this
approaching trough, with multiple lobes of 500mb vorticity ejecting
out ahead of the trough axis. 700mb flow will increase and turn
southwesterly across western portions of the region this morning
into the late morning and early afternoon hours as the 700mb low
struggles to develop over northern Montana. The 700mb jet will
increase to around 50kts by this afternoon, with modest to strong
downward omegas suggesting by the GFS around the same time. Surface
pressure gradients increase in the early afternoon hours, leading to
a 4 to 5mb gradient across Carbon County. As a result, strong winds
are expected to develop late this morning into the early afternoon
for much of Carbon County and the Arlington/Elk Mountain wind prone
zone. Similarly, along and east of the Laramie Range, very strong
winds are anticipated to develop later this evening as the 700mb low
continues to strengthen across northern Montana and a strong,
westerly, 700mb jet develops across the Laramie Range. Surface
pressure gradients increase significantly as a surface low riding
the Canada Border deepens an drags a cold front through the area. A
strong, Bora Event is anticipated to develop behind the cold front
as surface pressure gradients remain highly elevated, the 700mb jet
retains its strength, and downward omega values are progged to be
maxed out along and east of the Laramie Range. As a result, all High
Wind Watches for southeast Wyoming have been upgraded to High Wind
Warnings. The strongest winds along and east of the Laramie Range
are most likely to occur overnight tonight into the early morning
hours on Thursday. Confidence remains low for the Nebraska Panhandle
to see strong winds associated with this system, so High Wind
Watches remain in place for southern portions of the Panhandle.

Temperatures today will be quite warm ahead of the cold front, in
the 60s west of the Laramie Range and mid-70s to upper-80s east.
This cold front is expected to be quite strong, so temperatures will
tank quickly behind the system for locations not seeing downslope
warming associated with the Bora Event across the Laramie Range.
Precipitation will be isolated at best across the region this
afternoon into the overnight hours, with the higher terrain out west
most likely see accumulating precipitation in the form of snow. The
western Nebraska Panhandle has since been moved out of the Marginal
Risk for severe weather, but an isolated thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially across Dawes and Box Butte counties where an
isolated pocket of 200-500 J/kg of CAPE may develop. Unfortunately,
very dry surface conditions will continue this afternoon, so any
precipitation that falls out of showers in the Panhandle will likely
evaporate before reaching the ground. Therefore, there is an
increased threat for isolated, downburst winds with any shower or
storm that develops across the Panhandle today, but these are not
expected to be widespread in nature. Additionally, with very dry
conditions and increasing winds through the afternoon hours, Red
Flag Warnings will continue today with extreme fire danger across
much of the area east of the Laramie Range. Fire concerns decrease
behind the cold front as temperatures cool rapidly and a touch more
moisture pushes into the region.

Thursday will feature the upper-level trough slowly rotating across
the region, though unfavorable 500mb vorticity advection looks to
limit the speed as which this trough moves out of the area. The
500mb vorticity profile looks a litter messy, for lack of a better
term, leading to a much slowly progression of the upper-level trough
as unorganized vorticity advection occurs. Therefore, cool
temperatures are anticipated to continue for the next several days
as the upper-level trough slowly advects out of the area. Luckily,
the position of the upper-level trough will continue to support
synoptic ascent, leading to continued precipitation chances
throughout the day Thursday. The best of the precipitation looks to
remain confined to Montana as the surface low meanders slightly
further north into southern Canada. However, a secondary cold front
pushes through the area Thursday evening, leading to a reinforcement
of cooler air aloft and continued precipitation chances. Snowfall
totals from Wednesday evening through Friday morning will be low,
likely in the Trace to half an inch category outside of the
mountains. Rain will be the primary precipitation type before the
cooler, reinforcing cold air moves into the region. Given the very
warm temperatures recently, it will take a long time for any snow to
start accumulating, so significant accumulations are not anticipated
at this time. Strong winds slowly come to an end through Thursday
evening, before another shot of elevated winds move into western
portions of the region for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

No major changes with the forecast update. Please see the previous
long term discussion...

As we head into the long term period, one thing will be very clear,
the air will feel a little crisper on your skin. Expect temperatures
to be and remain near normal, believe it or not, with highs topping
out in the 50s across southeast Wyoming and low to upper 60s in the
Nebraska Panhandle. Not only this, but we will be in an active
pattern, so precipitation chances will be elevated compared to what
we`ve been seeing as of late. Why, well, more on that in a bit.
Hopefully this increased chance of precipitation will make a dent in
the extreme drought (U.S. Drought Monitor) we are in and cut down
our fire weather threat. So, what is different this time around?
Well, the main player in this forecast period will be a robust upper-
level low that becomes parked over Saskatchewan with a trough
stretching south into our region. This will allow vort maxes, pulses
of energy, to feed into our CWA and kick start that increased
precipitation chance. As we progress into and through the weekend,
this upper-level low will remain quasi-stationary over Saskatchewan
through at least Monday. Thereafter, it will move off to the east
and weaken as a weak transient ridge builds across our CWA, drying
us out briefly.

What are the probabilities of seeing at least 0.10" of
precipitation? Well, there will be a weak system that slides in
Friday and ensemble guidance has probs remaining relatively low
across the CWA. However, there will be another system over the
weekend into early next week that will give us a better chance.
Probs with this one are in the 60 to 80% range of seeing 0.10" of
liquid precipitation. Most locations will see primarily rain, but in
the higher elevations this rain may mix with snow or remain all
snow, with amounts still needing a bit of ironing out. Winds in the
long term will not be much of a concern with meager mid-level
support. Friday morning has our best chances with a 50 knot 700MB
jet sliding in. Per GFS, omega will be lacking so these winds may
not mix down to the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Relatively light winds this morning as high pressure aloft slowly
ejects eastward into the plains. A cold front and associated upper
level trough will then push into Wyoming late this morning and
afternoon. Increasing winds and cloud cover expected after 15z
Wednesday with some stronger wind gusts possible.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will continue over the next
24 hours due to a very dry airmass near the surface. Winds will
begin to increase from west to east between 11z and 19z,
respectively. Gusts between 35 to 45 knots expected for the
southeast Wyoming terminals, and between 30 to 40 knots for western
Nebraska. Winds should remains this strong for all terminals through
Wednesday night with wind direction shifting into the west or
northwest. Can`t rule out a shower or thunder-shower for KSNY, KAIA,
and KCDR Wednesday afternoon, but confidence and coverage are pretty
low at this time (~5% chance). Strong erratic gusty winds are
possible with any nearby shower.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417-418-
     430>433.
     High Wind Warning from noon today to 3 PM MDT Thursday for
     WYZ101.
     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM MDT Thursday
     for WYZ104-109-111-113.
     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MDT
     Thursday for WYZ106-116>118.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Thursday
     for WYZ107-108-115-119.
     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT Thursday
     for WYZ110.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434>437.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for NEZ003-019>021-054-055-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM/RZ
AVIATION...TJT