Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

627
FXUS65 KCYS 052312
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
512 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning is in effect until 5 PM MDT for gusty winds,
  low humidity, and poor overnight recoveries for all of Carbon
  County.

- Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday
  for gusty winds and low humidity for much of southeast
  Wyoming.

- Hot temperatures return for Thursday through Sunday with
  slightly cooler temperatures Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Tonight...Another quiescent and nice night for leaving windows open
as minimum temperatures dip into the 50s at lower elevations, with
40s for the mountains. Northwest flow aloft prevails with a decent
surface trough developing over southeast Wyoming. Looking at the
boundary layer winds and 850 mb winds, expect to see a decent low
level jet form across the Nebraska Panhandle, with south winds after
midnight of 25 to 35 mph gusting to 45 mph at the usual suspects,
Chadron and Alliance. The low level jet is likely to subside towards
sunrise.

Thursday...The heat returns with a much drier airmass advecting
eastward across our counties, and with 700 mb temperatures reaching
14 to 18 Celsius, expect yielded high temperatures to be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s west of I-25, with 90s to near 100 degrees
east of I-25. Fortunately, relative humidities will be bone dry,
making the apparent, or heat index temperatures in the tolerable
range.

Main challenge will be fire weather concerns with relative
humidites only in the 5 to 15 percent range in the afternoon
and early evening, and with projected mid level winds around 700
mb, 10000 feet MSL, expected to mix down to the surface, we
have felt it prudent and necessary to issue a Red Flag Warning
for much of southeast Wyoming, with the only exceptions being
southern Platte, southern Goshen and far eastern Laramie
Counties where winds will not be at critical levels.
Fortunately, the Nebraska Panhandle winds will remain below
critical thresholds. Our Red Flag Warning will extend from 11 AM
to 8 PM Thursday.

Thursday night...Quiet and tranquil weather will continue with a
weak surface trough or weak cold front backing into our northeast
Counties but with no sensible weather anticipated with cold frontal
passage, only a switch to north and northeast winds north of a
Douglas to Scottsbluff line. The airmass moderates with minimum
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s at lower elevations, with 40s
for the mountains, still quite pleasant sleeping weather to have
windows open and fresh air from outside.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

With this synoptic setup, we will see much of the same weather
over the forecast period. Friday starts us off with the ridge
over our area. This will bring warm temperatures and dry air to
the CWA. The 700mb temperatures are in the mid teens to lower
20C, supporting warm temperatures across the CWA, before
temperatures return to the mid teens on Tuesday, cooling the
area down some. Fire weather will be a concern through this
forecast period with dry air, gusty winds, and little to no
chances of precipitation through Monday. Daytime RH values go
down to the single digits to teens each day with little
overnight recovery. Fire weather has the potential to become
critical with any increases in winds. Monday afternoon through
Tuesday, a trough starts building over the PNW, potentially
drawing in some moisture and giving some relief to fire weather
conditions as it nears closer to our area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 507 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

VFR conditions anticipated across southeast Wyoming for the 00Z
TAF period. Gusty conditions will continue for the next 1 to 2
hours before decreasing overnight, with clear skies. For western
Nebraska, there is a small chance for low clouds at KBFF, KSNY,
and KAIA overnight, but confidence is low at this time. Kept a
low SCT deck for the time period of greatest concern. Gusty
winds expected all night at KCDR due to a strong, low-level jet.
Gusty conditions return everywhere for the late morning and
afternoon hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Air Quality Alert until 11 AM MDT Thursday for WYZ101>119.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for
     WYZ417>420-428>430.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ421>427.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ML
AVIATION...AM