Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

652
FXUS65 KCYS 150458
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1058 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorm
  are possible this afternoon. Main concern with any storms that form
  will be gusty winds. Severe weather not expected.

- A High Wind Watch has been issued for the typical wind prone locations
  of southeast Wyoming from 6 AM through 3 PM Wednesday.

- A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for most locations east of
  the Laramie Range from noon to 8 PM on Thursday.

- A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder, and wetter
  weather for Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Another round of showers and storms is possible this afternoon as
current GOES-18 Satellite Imagery shows a low spinning over the
Colorado/Utah border, near Grand Junction. Low-level and mid-level
clouds are spewing out ahead of the low and starting to cover much
of southeast Wyoming in clouds. Current radar suggests a few
isolated to scattered showers mainly west of the Laramie Range at
this time. Showers will become more widespread throughout the
afternoon and evening hours as the low continues to traverse slowly
to the east. A decent cumulus field has started to develop across
the western Nebraska Panhandle where mid- and upper-level clouds
have briefly cleared earlier this morning. Upper-level water vapor
imagery shows the upper-level trough positioned across much of the
Intermountain West with a distinct, positive tilt to the trough
itself. As this upper-level trough continues its eastward
progression today, the CWA will main under the right entrance region
of the upper-level jet, suggesting continued synoptic lift across
the region and increasing precipitation chances. Warm air advection
is weakly in place overhead at the 700mb level, but not overly
impressive for stronger storms this afternoon. HIRES model guidance
suggest isolated pockets of MUCAPE up to about 500 J/kg for areas
east of the Laramie Range, with MLCAPE lower and more capped. Given
some instability in the area, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot
be completely ruled out, especially as temperatures across the
Panhandle increase into the mid-60s. However, forecast RAP soundings
suggest a stout inverted-V signature, suggesting a higher potential
for gusty winds with and showers and storms that form this
afternoon. Therefore, severe weather is not expected, but isolated
thunderstorms with some lightning are expected, especially across the
western Nebraska Panhandle where warmer temperatures are located.

Precipitation chances slowly come to an end overnight, with Sidney
potentially seeing showers through the early morning hours before
the trough departs the region and subsidence returns in its wake.
Wednesday will be a transition day across the region as
precipitation chances end and a brief ridge develops ahead of the
next incoming system for Thursday into the long term forecast. The
700mb flow suggests that while a transition period is expected, it
will potentially be filled with strong to near-high wind criteria
winds in the typical wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming and gusty
conditions elsewhere. At 700mb, as the initial system starts to
deepen, height gradients increase across western portions of the CWA
through the early to late morning hours. Then, increasing gradients
are expected in the mid- to late-afternoon hours as the next 700mb
trough begins to deepen across central Montana. As this system
deepens, a 50 to 55kt 700mb jet kicks up across the Laramie Range
with GFS Omega values suggesting modest to strong subsidence across
the Laramie Range and near the Arlington/Elk Mountain area. As a
result, a lower-confidence High Wind Watch has been issued for the
typical wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming from 6 AM to 3 PM
Wednesday, with gusts up to 60mph possible. While some parameters,
namely the Craig to Casper gradients, are not super onboard with
high winds, enough evidence exists to suggest the need the for a
Watch. Luckily, with strong subsident flow, highs in the mid-50s to
low-70s are expected Thursday with clearing skies behind the
departing trough. Precipitation is not expected for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Our ridge starts to become flattened and pushed off to
the east Thursday. A cold low pressure system will start to push
into the Intermountain west as it dives southeast from the
Saskatchewan/Albertan Providences bringing a colder airmass with it.
A cold front will start push through the Southeast Wyoming area late
afternoon to early evening. Models show it being a pretty stout
front with temps in the 50`s in front and 30`s behind it. However,
due to the timing of the front a fire weather watch was issued for
Goshen, Platte, Laramie, and the Nebraska Panhandle counties as RH
values look likely to drop between 10 and 15 percent for the
afternoon coupled with the breezy winds between 20 to 25 mph.
Converse and Niobrara weren`t included because there is uncertainty
with how low the RH will drop before the cold front pushes through
raising the humidity above possible threshold values. There will be
some showers associated with this front as well. Looking at the
model soundings the mid-levels will saturate first and produce virga
at first. But the virga should reach the ground into the overnight
period and likely come down as snow as we saturate the lower levels
and  below freezing. 700mb temperatures look to drop to about
-13C making it for a colder Wyoming Friday with temps in the 30`s
while the Panhandle looks to be in the low 40`s. The snow showers
will continue into Friday as the pressure system start to makes its
way into the Northern Plains. Friday night will be the peak of the
cold airmass as overnight temperatures drop into the teens and
twenties. Another ridge will also start to push into the
Intermountain west late Friday afternoon keeping us in Northwesterly
flow filtering in that colder air from the North and tightening our
pressure gradient creating a cold breezy wind as well. Total
accumulations from the Thursday/Friday system looks to be around 3-4
inches in areas west of the I-25 corridor, 2-3 inches along the I-25
corridor, and about 1-2 inches east of the corridor. For the
Nebraska Panhandle it looks to be roughly 0.5 to 1 inch of snow with
some 1-2 inch areas closer to the WY/NE border. By Saturday morning
the system should be far enough east to stop snowing while the ridge
moves further east as well. The airmass over the intermountain west
will gradually warm up but the Saturday temps will still be in the
40`s and 50`s. Sunday, warm temps in the 60/70`s east of I-25 return
with mostly clear skies in the afternoon. This warmer ridge is
currently expected to last until Tuesday morning before another
shortwave could possibly hit the Intermountain West again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Upper level disturbance will push east into the northeast Colorado
plains tonight with clearing skies and diminishing precipitation.
Some patchy fog is possible tonight in places that received
rain/snow earlier today.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail through
Wednesday with increasing westerly winds late tonight and early
Wednesday morning. Can`t rule out some fog in a few places that
received rainfall yesterday evening, but chances are below 5%, so
removed VCFG for now with increasing westerly winds.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for WYZ430>433.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for WYZ106-110-116-117.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TJT