Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

139
FXUS65 KCYS 242340
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
540 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler this weekend with temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees
  below normal.

- Widespread rain and mountain snowfall expected Sunday and
  Monday as a central Pacific system lifts northeast across the
  region.

- Near normal temperatures and a bit warmer by Tuesday into
  Wednesday, but the next Pacific system will be approaching
  from the Pacific Northwest by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A pretty quiet afternoon ahead as stable conditions engulf the
region behind a cold front that swept across CWA earlier today.
This will keep high temperatures this afternoon slightly cooler
than average, with highs west of I-25 topping out around 50
degrees and lower to mid 50s east of the corridor. Blustery
northerly winds behind the front will taper off through the
afternoon hours. Switching gears a bit and taking a look at the
upper levels, initially we have a cut- off low over the Desert
Southwest while we sit under a southwesterly flow regime with a
ridge to our east across the Mississippi Valley. As we progress
in the short term period, the cut off low will lift northeast
and as it does so, the flow aloft over the CWA will become
difluent, this combined with a plume of moisture in the
southwest flow will support increased precipitation chances
across the CWA this weekend. It will take a bit for us to see
impacts here locally as a stable airmass over us will hold firm
for most of today, so the impacts will not start until this
evening as the atmosphere become saturated. But, before that, we
may see returns on radar, with the dry layer at the lower
levels of the atmosphere, any precipitation will struggle to hit
the surface through at least the afternoon hours. As the
atmosphere saturates, look for showers to become more widespread
and persist throughout most of Sunday.

Lets take a closer look at Sunday, the low over the Southwest will
continue to lift northeast closer to our CWA. Guidance indicates a
surge of moisture ahead of this system, with ensemble members having
PWATs above the 90th to 98th percentile. With adequate forcing with
the aforementioned system, moderate rainfall looks to be a
possibility. So, with ingredients in place, this looks like a
scenario where up to 0.3" of rainfall, locally higher amounts, looks
to be a possibility across the CWA, with lower amounts west of the
Laramie Range. As the best dynamics sets up across the Nebraska
Panhandle, many locations there have the best chances of seeing 1.0"
of precipitation. To keep the forecast consistent, kept PoPs above
60 percent, mainly outside of Carbon County. Lower elevations should
see all rain while the mountains will see sub advisory snowfall,
with amounts on the order of 5.0" or less. Expect slightly cooler
temperatures for Sunday as highs will only top out mid to upper 40s
across the region as lows Sunday night tank to near freezing by
Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

No major changes in the long term period, please see previous
discussion...

The work week will begin unsettled as a weak, inverted lee trough
will be located to our south and east over the Central High Plains.
This feature is associated with a rather broad mid-level shortwave
trough, placing much of the Nebraska Panhandle at the inflection
point between a weak downstream ridge located over the Upper
Midwest, resulting in upper-level ageostrophic divergence and the
formation of a weak surface low to our east. The strongest forcing
for ascent at this time looks to set up over the Nebraska Panhandle
and points further east, bringing chances for precipitation
primarily east of the I-25 corridor during the day on Monday.
Ensembles at this time have trended down from previous runs, with
ECMWF ensemble means having 0.15-0.2" of QPF for Cheyenne, with
locations in the Panhandle seeing upwards of 0.5", which would
certainly help out with our drought conditions. Ensemble guidance
suggests PWAT at or above the 95th percentile relative to
climatology (~0.7") in the Panhandle, so heavy rain will be a threat
especially if we see any convective elements over the area despite
the main instability axis progged to remain well to the south and
east over Kansas and Central Nebraska.

In terms of precipitation type, temperatures at this time look to be
too warm for any snow (generally below 8000-9000 feet), as LREF
guidance keeps 25th percentile minimum temperatures mainly in the
mid to upper 30s east of the I-25 corridor, with low to mid-30s
Monday morning for locations west of the Laramie Range. Places like
Rawlins and Laramie will be away from the bulk of the forcing for
ascent at this time, so will likely stay dry despite seeing slightly
cooler temperatures. A weak cold front is progged to move through SE
Wyoming and the NE Panhandle sometime late Monday into early
Tuesday, which will result in slightly cooler overnight lows Tuesday
morning, with locations west of I-25 waking up to temperatures at or
slightly below freezing, and mid to upper 30s to the east. The
shortwave trough ejects off to the north and east during the day
Tuesday, placing us under a SW flow regime on the southern periphery
of a rather amplified negatively-tilted shortwave trough lifting
over Idaho and the Northern Great Basin. The strongest forcing for
ascent looks to remain well to our north over Northern Wyoming and
the Dakotas, so conditions for us look to remain mostly dry, with
the exception of the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges which may manage
to pick up some light snowfall, though ensemble guidance keeps
totals under 1-2" and confined to the higher peaks. High
temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be at or slightly above
climatology with highs in the low 60s east of the Laramie Range, and
low 50s to the west.

Wednesday, anticyclonic wave breaking over Northern British Columbia
will serve to strengthen the geopotential height gradient associated
with a closed low located off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
This, combined with an additional secondary shortwave trough located
off the Oregon coast will serve to increase southwesterly 700-500 mb
flow up to 50-60 knots, introducing the possibility for a high wind
event, primarily for our wind-prone areas of Arlington and Bordeaux
(tis` the season!). Model cross-sections along the I-80 corridor
show mountain wave signatures that are reflective in the omega
fields, however a mountain-top stable layer is lacking, which may be
a limiting factor for a more high-end and widespread high wind
event. As it stands, in-house random forecast guidance has around
40% probabilities of Arlington experiencing high wind conditions
Wednesday morning, with Bordeaux at around 20%, so while it may be
gusty, stay tuned for potential high wind highlights as we get
closer to this timeframe. Given gusty, downsloping conditions, high
temperatures on Wednesday will continue to remain mild, with highs
slightly above climatology in the low 60s east of the I-25 corridor,
and 50s to the west.

Heading towards the end of the work week, a negtaively-tilted ridge
will begin to amplify, with the ridge axis located mainly to the
east of our area, placing us under southwesterly flow. As 500 mb
height anomalies increase to +1-2 sigma relative to climatology, can
expect dry conditions and a slight warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The main aviation concern overnight will be increasing clouds with
the threat of MVFR and IFR CIGs. South to southeast flow across the
area tonight will moisten the low-levels, leading to the development
of low stratus across a large portion of the area. MVFR/IFR CIGs are
most likely east of the Laramie Range, with the most southern
terminals expected to see CIG drops this evening, and more northerly
terminals expected to see drops late tonight and early Sunday
morning. Cannot rule out fog developing as well with light winds
across the area. Low CIGs are less likely west of the Laramie Range,
but did trend ceilings down as the HREF did show low probabilities
of MVFR conditions occurring. Most areas east of the Laramie
Range will be socked in clouds throughout the day tomorrow with
precipitation chances increasing during the evening hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...RZ/NB
AVIATION...SF