Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

513
FXUS65 KCYS 252348
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
548 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures through Wednesday, with a slight warming
  trend late this week and into the weekend.

- A few thunderstorms Today and Wednesday may produce strong
  gusty winds, marginally large hail, and very heavy rainfall.

- Daily precipitation chances expected east of I-25. Elevated
  Fire weather concerns begin Friday for areas west of I-25.

- Strong winds possible Friday and Saturday, but high winds are not
  anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Showers are starting to develop over the Laramie range. Models still
depict the southern Panhandle as the area to watch for later this
evening. Hi-res models show MuCape values ranging from 1500 to 2,000
joules with some accompanying vort-maxes and some weak isentropic
lift. Bulk shear and effective inflow seem kind of marginal at
around 20-30 knots meaning there is some severe potential but the
storms are likely to be pulsy in nature. NAEFS also shows pockets of
elevated moisture across our forecast area as IVT and PWATs remain
in the 90th percentile adding to the possibility of heavier rainfall
coming from storms that can manage to keep their composure as they
push east away from the Laramie range. A Marginal Risk for excessive
rain continues today (and Wednesday) along the I-80 corridor and as
far north as the North Platte River Valley. Continued to increase
POP between 40 to 60 percent for scattered/numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Will have to watch the position of the
front, since this is where thunderstorms may train over the same
area. RAP model soundings also show a pretty stout dry layer near
the surface and becomes saturated right around the 3km mark. So any
thunderstorm/shower could also produce some gusty winds as the
lighter rainfall evaporates before hitting the ground resulting in
possibly frequent microburst events.

Similar conditions on Wednesday as another transitory shortwave
moves southeast across the same area. Higher boundary layer moisture
as well with PWATS approaching the 95th percentile. However, models
are showing a bit more CIN below 700mb as the front lifts north as a
warm front and stalls. High resolution models are showing a limited
coverage of showers and thunderstorms due to low clouds and maybe
some fog in the morning. Will have to keep an eye on this trend
since Wednesday was looking like the best potential for excessive
rainfall and some flooding. Kept POP as is but did lower them
slightly further east into western Nebraska. Convective variables
look good, with the exception of the low stratus seen on model
soundings. Believe high res guidance is underplaying the potential,
since good surface convergence is expected with easterly winds east
of the Mountains, and a continuation of west to northwest winds
across Carbon and Albany counties. Will also need to keep an eye on
severe thunderstorms since 0-6km shear will be higher with models
indicating MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000 j/kg across the eastern plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

An active long term weather pattern looks to be still
taking shape. At the upper levels, a strong ridge takes hold of the
Western United states limiting our overall wind shear potential
through the weekend. Between the two low pressure systems progged to
move along the Canadian border, our ridge will limit their influence
somewhat, but continued light monsoonal moisture advecting into the
area will make it interesting. The overall forecast will be pretty
much the same thing will about a 40 percent chance of storms in the
afternoon and evening across the area and breezy but calmer
mornings. 700mb temperatures look to stay between 13 and 17C meaning
the daily high temperatures will be in the 80`s for Southeast
Wyoming and 90`s in the Nebraska Panhandle especially towards the
end of the week. There will be a cool down as showers and
thunderstorms move over an area so some relief will occur for those
who aren`t a fan of the summer heat. The Wyoming wind will also
start to make an appearance later this week. While not quite high
winds yet (except under thunderstorms). The normal afternoon breezes
will steadily become a little stronger Friday afternoon and into the
weekend. These winds are induced from the slightly tightened
pressure gradient as an upper level trough pushes against our ridge
about as well as dragging anything across sand paper. So expect
breezier conditions especially in the mountains west of I-25 and
along I-80.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Storms near KCYS, KCDR, KBFF, KSNY, and KAIA are expected to move
out later this evening. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
possible, which can create brief IFR conditions. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through this TAF period once the storms move
out. Generally light winds expected overnight which can be variable
at times. Winds becoming west at KRWL and KLAR and E to SE elsewhere
mid morning. More storms and showers are possible tomorrow afternoon
into the evening.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT/MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...ML