Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

148
FXUS65 KCYS 222028
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
228 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and seasonable temperatures will continue through mid-
  week, with a warming trend expected for the second half of the
  week into the weekend.

- Breezy conditions will be possible across much of the region
  on Wednesday, especially across the western Nebraska
  Panhandle.

- Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms expected through
  Thursday, then a brief drying trend for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Tonight...For late September, impressive low level moisture
transport along and east of the I-25 corridor and Laramie Range,
with a decent 850/700 theta-e ridge axis oriented north to south
across far eastern Wyoming. Much as the usually accurate HRRR
depicts, look for isolated to scattered showers, and isolated
thunderstorms, to develop and propagate early this evening from
Wheatland to Cheyenne early this evening, to the northern and
central Nebraska Panhandle by mid evening, and mostly dissipate by
late evening across the northern Panhandle. Decent CAPES of 1000 to
1500 J/kg suggest a few storms may become briefly strong producing
gusty winds to 50 mph and brief heavy rain, although the limiting
factor will be bulk shear values around 30 knots. Decent 500-300 mb
and 700-500 quasigeostrophic forcing will aid in lift for showers
and thunderstorms.

A negatively tilted shortwave trough aloft moves from western
Wyoming at 00Z to southeast Montana by 12Z Wednesday. with a dry
slot for a lull in shower and thunderstorm coverage after midnight.

Wednesday...Broad and weak southwest flow aloft will persist with a
low level convergence axis supporting isolated to widely scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon south of a Laramie
to Alliance line.

Thursday...Looking increasingly likely for scattered to numerous
beneficial rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening south of a Rawlins to Lusk line, as another weak shortwave
trough aloft, negatively tilted, moves up from northern Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Friday...Drier and warmer weather will ensue as the flow aloft turns
westerly in the wake of the shortwave trough aloft that moves into
the Dakotas.

Saturday...Pleasant early autumnal weather continues with dry
westerly flow aloft and relatively low precipitable water values,
PWAT. 700 mb temperatures near 13 Celsius suggest mild late
September maximum temperatures.

Sunday...Outdoor enthusiasts that like mild early Autumn like
weather will be pleasantly surprised under dry southwest flow aloft
and weak low level southeast winds. Continued mild with 700 mb
temperatures near 11 Celsius.

Monday...Another moisture plume develops from Arizona and New
Mexico, northeastward to southern Wyoming and western Colorado on
strengthening southwest flow aloft. With a low level surface trough
developing from western South Dakota to eastern New Mexico, and a
series of shortwave troughs aloft moving overhead, expect to see an
increase in areal afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm
coverage, especially across our Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges due to
orographic lift on moist southwest flow aloft.

Tuesday...Confidence in synoptic pattern is low to moderate as this
is, after all, day seven. However, it looks like some form of
troughiness aloft will reside across Wyoming and Colorado with the
moisture plume extending from western Colorado to western Nebraska,
and daytime heating and low level convergence is likely to set off
at least widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon and evening, and we may need to see POPS boosted if
model trends continue.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1025 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Complicated forecast leading to a variety of flight categories over
the next 24 hours. Visible satellite trends indicate low clouds
hanging on over the Nebraska terminals, with slight hints of some
gradual clearing at KSNY where LIFR CIGs are currently in place.
Anticipate the Nebraska terminals to remain under MVFR or IFR until
19-21Z before we gradually erode the stratus deck. Under the
anomalously moist air mass and another moisture surge expected
overnight into tomorrow morning, have introduced a TEMPO group
for BR and MVFR CIGs for KSNY and KAIA, however KBFF may have to
be included in the 00Z update.

Different hazards for the Wyoming terminals this afternoon as a weak
shortwave trough ejects from the SW over our area, which will result
in widely scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily after 22Z
through 03Z. Not expecting much in the way of VIS decreases
in/around showers due to large surface dewpoint depressions, however
showers/storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds
up to 35 knots. PROB30 groups have been left in at this time based
on high-resolution ensemble guidance. Another weak disturbance is
expected tomorrow morning after 10Z with isolated coverage, so
included VCSH for KCYS and KLAR to account for < 30% probabilities
of direct terminal impacts.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...NB