Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

899
FXUS65 KCYS 022156
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
256 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Sierra
  Madre, Snowy, and North Laramie Ranges, as well as the I-80
  Summit and Arlington area today and tonight through 5 PM
  Tuesday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible today
  with above average temperature and moisture present, and
  instability driving some stronger thunderstorm activity
  moving into Carbon County.

- Another round of accumulating snow is expected Thursday
  morning through Saturday morning. Exact accumulations
  uncertain at this time.

- Upper-level blocking pattern may start this weekend, leading
  to the potential for multiple rounds of precipitation across
  the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 221 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Our next impactful system is moving into the region this
afternoon bringing thunder to Carbon County and winter weather
to our high elevation and mountain zones. As the trough moves
eastward through the region, synoptic forcing is favoring
thunderstorm development in our western zones, and solid instability
is keeping this threat a reality. Current mesoanalysis shows
around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE in the region where thunderstorm
initiation is ongoing, and a storm just outside the CWA is
registering the potential for small hail, with webcams as of
this writing confirming that on the roadways. With favorable
conditions present, particularly in Carbon County, don`t be
surprised if we continue to see some relatively strong storms
for this time of year before weakening into the evening hours.
Otherwise the other feature from this system in the form of
winter weather is impacting our high terrain zones and
mountains. Latest high resolution guidance is indicating a bit
more precipitation making it into the Arlington area thanks to
upslope flow from northerly to northeasterly winds. Based on
this guidance, went ahead and added this zone to the winter
weather advisory for around 2 to 5 inches of accumulations, but
don`t be surprised to see some isolated locations nearing the
mountains to see heavier totals. Along the I-80 corridor, we
should see around 4-5 inches, so notable impacts to travel in
this area could occur. Not confident enough that we`ll see 6
inches or just over at this time, so held off on a Winter Storm
Warning for now, but the bulk of the heaviest accumulations
begin later tonight into the morning hours tomorrow, so there`s
still time for this evening`s shifts to look at the latest high
resolution guidance and make any adjustments accordingly.

Moving into Tuesday itself we should see our temperatures
descend with this system, with highs back to near to just above
normal and a bit more seasonable overall in the 40`s to 50`s.
While precipitation will linger into the evening, the heaviest
accumulations are expected during the morning and early
afternoon hours, with locations east of the Laramie Range
expected to see mostly rain. If we do get any snow to mix in, it
wouldn`t be for long and the warm ground temperatures will melt
that off fast. We return to sub-freezing lows overnight into
Wednesday morning, but by the afternoon the region will be back
to well above normal highs as the 50`s to 60`s return under
transient ridging, which will also keep us dry for the mid-week
timeframe. This will be brief however, and by the start of the
long term forecast period into Thursday look for a more
progressive pattern to return.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

In the wake of our system earlier in the week, our area will briefly
be under the influence of a shortwave ridge, bringing us well-above
average temperatures with a chance for some light precipitation
ahead of the next incoming system. High temperatures will likely
exceed 60 degrees east of the Laramie Range, with 50s west of the I-
25 corridor. Models actually have some weak instability progged
primarily over our Wyoming counties, so any precipitation may be
more convective in nature. Lee cyclogenesis will take place on
Friday downstream of a vigorous shortwave trough digging across
the Four Corners region, with an associated front impacting SE
Wyoming and W Nebraska during the day, resulting in a 20-25
degree drop in high temperatures relative to the previous day.
For once, our temperatures will actually be cooler than average,
so enjoy the brief taste of winter while it lasts. Given our
location relative to the vorticity maxima associated with the
500 mb closed low (resulting in differential cyclonic vorticity
advection) along with progged 700 mb frontogenesis, we expect
that precipitation will be rather widespread and likely in the
form of snow given the post- frontal air mass.

As we head into the weekend, we remain in a cold advection regime
under northerly flow, resulting in another day of below-average
temperatures and blustery conditions. We will be in the left-
entrance region of a 110 knot 250 mb jet, therefore large-scale
subsidence and dry conditions are expected at this time. On Sunday,
500 mb heights rise as a zonally-oriented ridge (weird, right?)
builds on the eastern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone located
off the California coast. This should result in a warming trend into
early next week, which will also be accompanied by an increase in
our winds. 700 mb cross-barrier flow is progged to exceed 50 knots,
with supporting guidance from an in-house wind product suggesting
greater than 60% probabilities of Arlington meeting high wind
criteria. Details will become more apparent as we get closer in time
to this event, but generally the trend is towards warmer, drier, and
windier conditions after a brief cooldown heading into this weekend
(which will hopefully involve some beneficial moisture).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

A mix of flight categories expected over the next 24 hours as
precipitation moves over the area. Rain is already occurring,
and will continue to be possible through tomorrow morning, with
some precipitation beginning to transition into snowfall,
primarily for Wyoming TAF sites. With precipitation, CIGs will
fall alongside VIS, and mixed wintry precipitation could bring
MVFR to IFR status, possibly even locally LIFR with the most
likely sites for the lowest flight categories KRWL/KLAR and into
tomorrow morning around 06-15Z. Otherwise prevailing conditions
prior to this should be VFR. Winds breezy this afternoon,
becoming light and generally 10 knots or under this evening and
overnight into tomorrow morning. Prevailing CIGs prior to
precipitation will be mid to high level, with dominant cloud
decks thereafter at mid to low levels after.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ103.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
     Tuesday for WYZ110-116.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ112-114.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...CG