Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

298
FXUS65 KCYS 122340
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
440 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions are expected to
  continue through the end of the work week.

- Chances of precipitation increase over the weekend for the
  mountains, but remain low for the plains.

-A more active pattern is expected into the middle of next
 week, with precipitation chances returning Wednesday into
 Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1206 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Yet another mild and quiet day across SE Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle as a highly amplified longwave ridge is located over our
area. With 500 mb geopotential height values exceeding the 90th
percentile per NAEFS guidance and essentially no clouds noted on
visible satellite imagery today (okay, maybe a few cirrus), high
temperatures across the region are expected to soar 10 to 15 degrees
above average for this time of year. With light and variable winds
thanks to weak gradient flow as surface high pressure remains in
place, today is another fantastic day to get outside and enjoy the
unseasonably warm weather. Tonight will again feature tranquil and
seasonably cool conditions under mostly clear skies and calm winds.
There is the potential for some patchy fog development overnight
into early tomorrow morning across mainly the Nebraska Panhandle, as
high-resolution guidance has moderate (30-50%) probabilities of fog
and surface RH values exceeding 95%. Would not be surprised to see
some additional patchy fog along the North Platte River Valley into
Goshen County, but confidence is too low to include in the grids at
this time.

Any low stratus should quickly dissipate after sunrise, with another
warm day in store for the region to end the work week. Can expect
slightly cooler high temperatures tomorrow (though still above
normal) as the upper-level ridge axis gradually shifts to our east
ahead of our next system. Can expect a general trend of increasing
mid and high-level clouds from west to east throughout the day as
moisture aloft gets transported over the region under 500-300 mb SW
flow. Another dry night is expected overnight Friday into Saturday
morning, with temperatures dipping to around the freezing mark for
most locations.

We begin somewhat of a transition into a more active pattern to
start off the weekend. On Saturday, 500 mb geopotential height falls
will overtake the region ahead of a shortwave trough that will skirt
by to our south, bring us some cooler temperatures relative to much
of this week. Temperatures will be around seasonal norms (average
high for Cheyenne for November 14 is 48 degrees), can expect more
cloud cover, though mainly dry conditions as the bulk of the forcing
for ascent remains well to our south over Colorado. There is a
slight (10-20%) chance that a few areas mainly along and south of
the I-80 corridor see a few rain and/or snow showers Saturday
evening into early Sunday morning, with the best chance being over
the Sierra Madre and Snowy Mountains, although any totals will be
light and negligible. Ensemble guidance has generally backed off QPF
over the last few runs for locations such as Sidney and Cheyenne, so
not expecting much of anything (~10% chance) if a stray shower does
manage to slide north of the Colorado border.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Sunday...As a weak shortwave trough aloft moves overhead, scattered
orographic showers will be possible early in the day across the
Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges, with drier conditions in the
afternoon in the wake of the shortwave trough passage. Slightly
warmer than Saturday with the change in 700 mb temperatures.

Monday...The flow aloft backs to southwest, inducing surface lee
troughing across our forecast area, and producing a continued
warming trend as 700 mb temperatures rise to near 6 Celsius.
Continued dry with limited low and mid level moisture.

Tuesday...Looks like a breezy to windy day as the flow aloft
strengthens in advance of an approaching shortwave trough aloft from
Utah and Arizona. Low and mid level moisture still looks too scant
for any precipitation to reach the ground.

Wednesday...A progressive negatively tilted shortwave trough aloft
will move across our counties, spreading chances for showers from
west to east, with somewhat drier conditions by late afternoon in
the wake of the shortwave trough aloft.

Thursday...Fast southwest flow aloft develops again ahead of the
closed low aloft across Idaho and Nevada. Looks like enough synoptic
and mesoscale lift and adequate moisture to produce showers
spreading from west to east, until the late afternoon when
subsidence behind the shortwave trough aloft will make it drier. 700
mb temperatures suggest temperatures will be somewhat similar when
compared to Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 436 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Clear skies for most of the area. There are some high based
clouds working their way south through our TAF area. Around 10z
some fog looks to be possible for KCDR and KAIA with a slight
chance at KBFF but that airport is a little more uncertain at
this point. If fog does develop expect it to finally clear out
around 15z. Afternoon wind gusts look to effects all terminals
around 20z but could start as early as 17z for KRWL and the
Nebraska Terminals.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MM