Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

765
FXUS65 KCYS 262325
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record breaking heat continues Sunday across the area.

- Another round of widely scattered afternoon and evening
  showers and thunderstorms is anticipated Sunday, which will
  have the potential to produce gusty winds and lightning.

- A plume of monsoon moisture will arrive on Monday, moderating
  temperatures and improving rainfall chances through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 323 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Storms are slower to initiate today as overall forcing is
weaker than the previous day. There is ample mid-level moisture
from the influence of the monsoon so satellite shows cumulus
fields beginning to develop over the high terrain. Hi-Res
guidance shows lower coverage of showers and storms today, with
storms mainly hanging around the high terrain and Interstate 25
corridor. A few isolated storms could make it into the Nebraska
panhandle but that would likely be later in the evening. Storms
today will be of the mild variety, with gusty winds and brief
heavy rain the primary concerns.

A strong push of monsoon moisture into the area on Monday will lead
to widespread showers and storms through much of the day. This push
of moisture will result in more cloud cover, meaning cooler
temperatures. Highs will still be on the hot side, but will be
roughly 5 degrees cooler compared to Sunday`s temperatures. Moisture
will arrive early, boosting PWATs up into the 90th percentile. As a
result, showers and storms will likely begin to initiate during the
morning, becoming more widespread heading into the afternoon hours.
Model soundings aren`t all that impressive, showing a mostly
saturated column with a drier surface. As a result, soundings show a
weakly inverted-V profile. With DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg, an
isolated severe gust will be possible in storms. The main concern
will be heavy rain with a marginal risk of flooding with slow moving
storms and PWATs in the 90th percentile. Showers and storms will
become less numerous during the evening hours, but will likely
continue across portions of the CWA at least through midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Higher probabilities of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
characterize the first portion of the long-term forecast period as
an enhanced push of monsoonal moisture moves through southeast
Wyoming and western Nebraska. Both ECMWF ensemble and GEFS ensemble
guidance show PWAT normalized anomalies peaking near the 2 standard-
deviations threshold through Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. PWAT
values between 1 inch and 1.25 inches are seen in forecast soundings
during the afternoon hours on both days. Additionally, a bit of
enhanced westerly flow aloft in the 500-200mb layer will round the
apex of the monsoonal ridge over the southwestern CONUS on both
days. This enhanced flow aloft, while certainly not extreme, will be
just enough to add a bit higher bulk shear values to the convective
setup on both days. It is not surprising that SPC is showing a
marginal risk for some stronger storms on Tuesday, and likely this
trend will continue on Wednesday. Convection will likely develop
over the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming and drift east-
southeastward by 18-20z. As outflow boundaries pool, expect a chance
of isolated gusty winds perhaps occasionally to severe limits of 50
knots in the eastern high plains of Wyoming and western Nebraska.
While temperatures will run slightly cooler the enhanced monsoonal
moisture, deeply mixed afternoon forecast soundings continue to
support a gusty wind threat on both days. Thunderstorms should have
enough forward momentum to limit the risk of flash flooding.
However, any location that does see repeated rounds of showers and
thunderstorms could experience brief flash flooding concerns.

By Thursday, the monsoon high pressure over the southwest becomes a
bit more suppressed and the plume of higher moisture values drifts
eastward away from the Rocky Mountain region. As a result, expect
lower chances of afternoon showers and storms from Thursday through
next weekend. High temperatures will rebound somewhat as we dry out,
but some uncertainty in the temperature and precipitation forecast
emerges by the weekend. A frontal boundary from the northern high
plains attempts to drop southward into the eastern plains of Wyoming
and western Nebraska perhaps as early as Friday afternoon. Ensemble
guidance varies greatly with regard to any impacts...ranging from
only slightly cooler temperatures to a frontogenetically forced band
of showers and cloud cover over the high plains on Friday evening,
or perhaps on Saturday. With such low confidence from Day 5 onward
in the forecast, we will message a more conservative outcome for now
with slightly less hot weather and isolated shower chances.
Regardless, significant precipitation seems unlikely through the end
of the long term with generally above-average temperatures
continuing for the foreseeable future despite a few frontal
boundaries nearby.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Even though showers and thunderstorms may impact KCYS, KLAR, and
KBFF over the next several hours, VFR conditions will prevail across
all terminals through this TAF period. This activity should be all
done by 06Z this evening, thereafter conditions become benign once
again across all the sites with variable winds generally less than 6
knots. Another surge of moisture will begin to push into the area by
18Z Monday, increasing the chances of showers and thunderstorms
across all the terminals. Right now, for this forecast period, the
best chances of thunderstorms look to impact KCYS, KLAR, and KBFF.
With chances spreading north and east just outside this forecast
period.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ101-102-107-
     108-118-119.
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ002-
     095.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ003-019>021-
     054-055-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...RZ