Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

478
FXUS65 KCYS 182325
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog are possible over the High Plains along and north
  of the North Platte River Valley Friday morning.

- Unsettled conditions return late in the weekend and early next
  week with widespread gusty winds and precipitation expected
  but forecast confidence is still on the low side.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Pleasant but cool fall-like weather dominates the area today. Most
locations are in hovering in the mid to upper 60s at this time with
partly cloudy skies from diurnal cumulus cloud development and a
light breeze. Satellite imagery shows the messy upper level low
responsible for the last several days of unsettled weather spinning
over the Dakotas this afternoon. A secondary circulation is apparent
over eastern Montana. This feature is expected to move to the
southeast this evening and overnight as it rotates around the parent
low. This will provide a little bit of forcing for lift, so a slight
chance for overnight showers and thunderstorms was introduced mainly
in the northern NE panhandle. A surface high pressure will also
slide south overnight and wedge itself between the departing low
pressure system and the mountains. Expect to see surface winds
turning east to southeast over the Plains, also ushering in improved
low-level moisture. This should lead to areas of fog mainly along
and north of the North Platte River valley into Friday morning.
Further west (of the Laramie Range), clear skies and fairly light
winds may lead to another round of patchy frost in low lying or
sheltered areas.

Friday looks like another nice day for the forecast area with highs
mainly close to seasonal averages and fairly light winds. We will
see some increasing mid to high level cloud cover from the southwest
during the afternoon hours as moisture associated with the remnants
of tropical storm Mario moves over the area. A few overnight showers
or sprinkles can`t be ruled out Friday night ahead of this system,
but there was not enough confidence to add the mention of
precipitation to the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Long term is becoming more active as we see models continue to
find agreement on the placement of a strong system that will
impact our region late in the weekend and early next week,
bringing gusty winds and widespread precipitation.

The weekend will see some periods of activity as a ridge tries
to settle in, but a passing shortwave will disrupt it enough to
keep areas of precipitation in our western and mountain zones
alongside an enhanced pressure gradient producing gusty winds.
It does look like the ridge will have enough influence to at
least allow for some warming, with temperatures in the 70`s to
80`s on Saturday and near widespread 80`s east of I-25 on
Sunday. But then on Monday, an upper level low is now on track
to move across all of Wyoming and bring enhanced winds
alongside areas of precipitation through the start of the week.
The original track of this system was a bit further to our north
and east keeping the bulk of significant activity out of our
CWA, but models and ensembles are now starting to shift this
system further south and more across Wyoming as of this
afternoon. That isn`t to say that all models are in agreement on
this feature, and there still lies enough uncertainty in this
track based on ensembles that there is low to moderate
confidence in the forecast overall. The NBM remains on the low
side for precipitation due to it`s slower latency, but with
confidence still low alongside collaboration with our
neighbors, we have elected to keep the base data for the
forecast at this time. What is currently expected is that
unsettled conditions are likely for the start of the work week,
with areas of breezy winds and precipitation possible dependent
upon the track of the system, with cooler conditions becoming
likely as we drop back into the 60`s and 70`s with the passage
of this system. As this feature departs to end the long term on
Wednesday, we should see some warming returning to the region
under clearer conditions, with highs in the 80`s appearing once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025

VIS satellite is showing clear skies to a few scattered clouds
across the CWA this afternoon, bringing VFR conditions to all
terminals. Expect generally light winds in the 5 to 10 knot
range through the overnight hours. KAIA and KCDR have the best
chances of seeing a return of lower CIGs tonight, generally
less than 5K feet, and BR or FG. Otherwise, expect pleasant
weather for the remainder of the terminals and mainly VFR
conditions by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RZ