Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

291
FXUS65 KCYS 120935
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
235 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snowfall will continue through Thursday morning with
  light snow spilling into the I-80 corridor between Cheyenne
  and Rawlins.

- Wind gusts up to 65 mph will continue into the evening hours
  for the Bordeaux area along I-25.

- While temperatures will remain above seasonal averages for
  much of the week ahead, there will be occasional chances for
  light precipitation.

- High winds are possible Tuesday in our wind prones across
  southeast Wyoming.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 234 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Low-level water vapor shows the Low pressure system still spinning
over California still at 2am. Pacific moisture is being funneled into
the Intermountain West at the mid and lower levels of the
atmosphere. NAEFS shows the 90-97th IVT percentile over the majority
of the Nebraska Panhandle and portions of Laramie and Goshen county.
Even though the IVT values dives south in Colorado and Kansas, there
should still be sufficient moisture to utilize and squeeze out a few
more inches of snow for the mountains and some light rain mainly
along I-80 for the lower elevations with the help of some weak
shortwaves. Some snotels have already verified our Winter storm
warning with 13 inch accumulations but most have around 8-10 inches
with 8 hours left. Radar shows 30dbz echoes over the mountains
likely indicating snowfall has once again resumed. Low pops were
extended to through the southern half of Platte, Goshen, and Scotts
Bluff counties based off the average composite reflectivities of Hi-
Res models. Following a couple vort-maxes and weak warm air
advection aloft these showers should push eastward in the lower
elevations by the late afternoon/evening time today. In the
overnight hours there will be a lull in precipitation chances for
the forecast area waiting for the next shortwave to move through the
region. Around 12z Friday the wave should arrive to the
Intermountain west to revive precipitation chances for Carbon County
and the Mountainous regions of southern Albany county. Model
soundings show a pretty stout dry layer in the boundary levels in the
lower elevations east of I-25. However, collocated with the wave is
a stream of vorticity that may provide enough synoptic forcing
couple with a few plumes of moisture at the 700mb level that may
squeeze out the last bit of moisture. But the added pops were kept
low at 15 to 20 percent for Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

At the start of the long term period, a weak upper-level trough will
slide across the CWA, keeping chances of precipitation in the
forecast through Friday night. As we progress in the long term, this
trough and associated precipitation will move out of the CWA by
Saturday morning as ridging nudges back in, dominating weather
conditions through Monday morning. Some changes are in store by
Tuesday as troughing begins to push back into the CWA, increasing
precipitation chances, mainly across our western forecast zones, and
winds in our known wind prones in southeast Wyoming. In the
meantime, the risk of high winds remains low Friday through Monday
with meager mid-level support. The same can`t be said for Tuesday as
a stout 700mb jet, nearing 70 knots, sets up across the CWA along
with negative Omega (GFS) that will mix these winds down to the
surface. So, what does this mean with surface winds? Well, in-house
guidance suggests a high wind event with widespread probs in the 40
to 60 percent range across our wind prones in southeast Wyoming with
a few locations topping out near 80%. This is in agreement with
ensemble guidance having a 70% chance of gusts greater than 50 mph
with some members suggesting a 50% chance of gusts greater than 60
mph. With the current forecast, this is not reflected in it as it is
based off of the lower end of guidance. This will be monitored and
over the next few days will be adjusted to reflect the latest
probabilistic guidance suggesting a high wind event on Tuesday. Then
by Wednesday, at the tail end of the forecast period, you`ll be
thinking what winds as they will be a memory with the upper-level
support pushing off to the east.

The other thing of concern in the extended, as we dry out over the
weekend and the uptick in winds by early next week, is the
increasing threat of fire weather conditions across portions of the
CWA, especially from Cheyenne and points east. A limiting factor
could be any precipitation that may have fallen the preceding days,
but with min RH values forecast to drop below 20% along with dry
fuels and gusty winds, fire weather concerns rapidly increase Sunday
into Tuesday of next week. So, there may be the need for another
long duration Red Flag Warning in this time frame, stay tuned to the
forecast for future updates.

Lets shift our attention to temperatures in the extended and what we
can expect. Aloft, we will see 700mb temps climbing to around -2
degrees C Friday/Saturday and a bit warmer Sunday/Monday, soaring to
around +4 degrees C. So, closer to reality, surface highs
Friday/Saturday will top out in the mid 40s west of I-25 and low to
upper 50s east of the corridor. A tad warmer Sunday/Monday as highs
top out near 50 degrees over the higher terrain west of I-25 and in
the 60s elswhere. While lows dip into the 20s to near 30 through the
long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

A mix of conditions expected over the next 24 hours thanks to
periods of passing showers including both rain and snow. Any
showers that do impact sites will have the potential to lower
CIGs and VIS, and could create MVFR to IFR conditions. Cannot
rule out the potential for LIFR, but it`s less likely as
precipitation should be on the light side. Winds lessening
overnight, though KCYS may see some low level wind shear
overnight. Winds expected to be weaker tomorrow, with most
Nebraska sites variable and light.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for WYZ112-
     114.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...CG