Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS65 KCYS 271917
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
117 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect cooler temperatures Friday with south to southeast
  winds developing. These winds may be strong at times tonight
  over the High Plains.

- Another round of near record warmth and critical fire weather
  conditions is expected Saturday through Monday. A few high-
  based virga showers will be possible each evening.

- Improved chances for precipitation return to start April in
  the middle part to latter part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/... Issued at 1228 PM MDT
Fri Mar 27 2026

A seasonably chilly and partly cloudy day continues over much of
southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska in the wake of a strong
cold frontal passage yesterday. Afternoon temperatures are
running near to even a few degrees below average for the first
time in over 10 days. Afternoon satellite imagery has shown a
slow scattering of cloud cover especially in areas where surface
downslope flow has resumed via local terrain influences. This
trend will continue this afternoon into the evening with a
mainly clear and seasonably chilly overnight expected in areas
that can keep winds light for the longest.

Overnight, reverse pressure gradients will develop over the High
Plains and enhance an already decent setup for a low-level jet.
As mentioned in previous forecast packages, sites from Laramie
eastward will feel the influence of this setup, with strong
south to south-southeasterly winds moving in aloft in the 700mb
layer. Overnight winds will soar upward around/after 06z
particularity along higher terrain locations such as the Pine
Ridge, western NE sand hills, Cheyenne Ridge, and the slopes of
the Laramie Range. Forecast guidance has remained relatively
consistent showing 40-50 mph surface winds possible in these
locations, with wind gusts upward of 30 mph at Scottsbluff,
Chadron, Alliance and Sidney. Probabilities of gusts over 60mph
high wind criteria remain low, generally less than 25%, so high
wind headlines will not be issued for this event.

A dramatic warm-up is in store for Sunday across the entire
Rockies/High Plains region as mid-level temperatures soar and
ridging builds in from the southwest. Afternoon high
temperatures will return to around 20 degrees above normal with
near-record warmth possible from Saturday through Monday. Along
with the warm-up, afternoon RH values will drop well below
critical thresholds each of the three afternoons from Saturday
onward, with poor RH recovery overnight. This, combined with
moderate westerly flow around 20-30mph, will set the stage for
another extended period of critical fire weather conditions.
Extremely high confidence remains present in forecast guidance
and we have opted to upgrade all fire weather products to Red
Flag Warnings through this stretch. The only exception still
remains in the NE panhandle on Saturday, where there will be a
convenient gap in gusty winds as the overnight low-level jet
ramps down and before westerly flow spreads eastward into the
panhandle late in the afternoon. To top off the fire weather
threat, isolated high-based shower activity will be possible
late in the day each day through the weekend as a bit of mid-
level moisture works in from the west and convective
temperatures are breached. While measurable QPF is not likely
from this convection, isolated instances of lightning may
exacerbate the fire weather threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM MDT
Fri Mar 27 2026

Monday...Continued mild as the flow aloft remains from the
west. With some low and mid level moisture, we may see isolated to
widely scattered late day showers Monday evening.

Tuesday...As a shortwave trough aloft and its associated cold front
pass by the forecast area, high temperatures will decrease
significantly into the 40s. Looks like enough low and mid level
moisture to produce scattered to numerous showers, most numerous
near the Colorado state line.

Wednesday...Westerly flow aloft prevails, helping a surface lee
trough to form, and producing a warming trend. With 700 mb
temperatures near 3 Celsius, maximum temperatures will reach the 50s
to lower 60s. Enough low and mid level moisture remains to produce
scattered to numerous showers.

Thursday...In this progressive pattern, another shortwave trough
aloft will move overhead and will combine with adequate low and mid
level moisture to produce scattered showers. The warming trend
continues with highs in the mid to upper 50s west of I-25, and mid
60s to lower 70s east of I-25.

Friday...Significantly cooler again in the wake of a shortwave
trough and its associated cold frontal passage. Frontal lifting and
cyclonic curvature aloft will help produce scattered rain and snow
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Low ceilings are still being observed over most Southeastern
Wyoming and the Panhandle Nebraska terminals, except KLAR and
KRWL which have cleared up. All terminals are expected to remain
at VFR criteria today. Winds generally out of the south to
southeast at 10 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots for most
terminals. Higher gusts to 40 knots at the KCYS and KLAR
terminals this evening. Overnight winds ramp up at the Nebraska
terminals as a low level jet develops. Locally stronger winds at
KCDR are possible with a 50 percent chance of 50 knot gusts. At
KAIA and KSNY wind gusts are expected to max out around 40
knots. LLWS is also a concern at KCYS, KSNY, KAIA, and KCDR
during the overnight into the early morning hours. Expect breezy
conditions to continue going into tomorrow morning.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 9 PM MDT Monday for
     WYZ417>423-425-427>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for
     NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MN/RV