Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

761
FXUS65 KCYS 110832
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
232 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon, with a
  return of drier and windier weather expected for Sunday, when
  Fire Weather concerns will increase.

- There will be a chance of afternoon and evening showers and a
  few thunderstorms Monday through Friday, with the best chances
  on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A quick look at the big picture, at the start of the short term
period we have a negatively tilted upper level trough to our west
with a ridge sitting to our east. As we progress through the
weekend, shortwave energy will push northeastward into and through
our CWA by this afternoon/evening, and off to our northeast by
Sunday. Speaking of Sunday, expect drier conditions in our region
along with a deep trough pushing into the West Coast, which will be
our next weather maker next week. So, for today, the biggest concern
will be the threat of thunderstorms this afternoon, some of which
could be severe. With aforementioned features, mid/upper-level flow
will remain southwesterly today, this will bring in warmer
temperatures and moist airmass into our CWA. This coupled with the
shortwave aloft will be the catalyst for thunderstorm development
this afternoon. The main threat with these thunderstorms will be
winds and hail. So stay tuned to the forecast for future updates...

By Sunday, drier conditions return to eastern Wyoming and the
Nebraska Panhandle. Widespread west to southwest winds will pick
back up into the 15 to 30 mph range, with stronger gusts. These
winds will overspread receptive fuels and as minimum RH values dip
to as low as 10 percent, elevated fire weather concerns will return.
Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for most of our
fire weather zones along I-25 and to the east and north, starting
Sunday afternoon. This watch will be upgraded later today as we fine
tune the forecast as newer data comes in.

Lets transition to temperatures and what can we expect over the
weekend. With southwesterly flow firmly in place, 700mb temps will
climb into the +4 to +6C range by this afternoon and more of the
same for Sunday. So, what does this mean for our highs? Well, we can
expect highs today, for many locations, hitting the 60s west of I-25
and 70s east of the corridor, with a few spots in the Nebraska
Panhandle hitting 80 degrees F. Lows over the weekend will dip only
into the upper 30s to low 40s across the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Monday starts an active weather pattern where the
Intermountain West could see a meager tenth of an inch over the
course of 5 days with some isolated areas getting a couple tenths. A
weak shortwave will push through Monday ahead of the stronger low
pressure system Tuesday into Wednesday. This weak shortwave may give
some snow chances to the peaks of the mountains but lower than
9,000ft may see more of a chance for a cold rain. Outside the the
Snowies and Sierra Madre range the chance for precip is practically
none and present more fire weather concerns east of I-25. The
progged westerly downsloping winds look to continue to dry out the
area east of I-25 for another day of Fire weather. Stronger
unsettled weather will return Tuesday into Wednesday as the broad
trough over the West Coast progresses inland. While we should still
see some rain and snow showers across the area, the LREF
probabilities of greater than 0.10 inches doesn`t climb past 20
percent for areas east of I-25 or greater than 30 percent between
Laramie and Rawlins signaling another weak/ dry system for our
region. Another, potentially stronger system looks to arrive
Thursday into Friday. The current storm track depicted by the global
models shows the system roughly transiting through the middle of
Colorado which is a favorable location for us to receive some
heavier rainfall from the wraparound region to the North of the
system. Due to the cyclonic flow around the Low, this would put us
in an easterly upslope pattern and better chances for rain to make
it to the surface. Some cold air looks to follow the system dropping
the weekly 60/70 degree temps to highs in the 30`s and 40`s for
Friday and Saturday. So this system will be worth monitoring as we
could have a wetter end to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail for the most part, with the
exceptions of KAIA/KSNY where low clouds and some fog may be
possible. Low clouds already making their way into KAIA, with
CIGs around 1-2K feet expected for both sites. Winds may lessen
most sites overnight, but breezy conditions 20-30 knots expected
tomorrow afternoon as system moves across the region. Widespread
showers expected with some thunder also not out of the question,
but currently keeping TAFs with VCSH for this update. Prevailing
CIGs tomorrow will be mid to high as showers/storms move
through, but cloud decks may lower with localized precipitation,
and showers/storms could lower VIS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for WYZ417>419-430>433.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...CG