Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

795
FXUS65 KCYS 231832
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1132 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple arctic cold fronts will bring much colder
  temperatures to the area through Sunday, with the coldest wind
  chills on track for Friday.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of western
  Nebraska and far eastern Wyoming tonight through Saturday.

- Widespread light snowfall is expected across the area tonight
  through Friday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
  issued for the Pine Ridge area.

- Areas of dense freezing fog will impact Interstate 80 between
  Laramie and Cheyenne Friday morning.

- Another round of light snow is possible on Sunday.

- High winds are likely to return to the area on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 108 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

Winter is making its bitter entrance tonight through much of the
weekend. An upper-level trough will remain overhead Friday,
funneling in continental arctic air from west central Canada. Week
500mb cyclonic vorticity advection will keep the trough from moving
out of the area quickly, instead allowing it to sit around for
several days. Weak 700mb flow will prevent any significant winds
today, but will also keep 700mb flow rather stagnant. 700mb
temperatures are well into the negatives tonight and will continue
to be in the -20 to -15C range throughout the day. Therefore, a
bitter cold day is in store with highs east of the Laramie Range
will be in the single digits, with highs west of the Laramie Range,
away from the best cold air, will be in the 20s. While 700mb flow
remains weak for Friday, increased surface pressure gradients will
allow winds to increase to around 12 to 18 mph throughout the day.
As a result, wind chill values will be in the negative teens to
negative 20s throughout the day, with the coldest wind chills right
around sunrise between -25 and -15F east of the Laramie Range.
Therefore, Cold Weather Advisories will remain in effect for the
western Nebraska Panhandle and Niobrara and Goshen counties in
southeast Wyoming. Cheyenne proper will remain "warm" enough to not
require Cold Weather products, however, morning wind chill values
will be in the -15 to -10F range throughout the entire day.

Another factor today will be the snow showers expected to move
across the area and the subsequent Winter Weather Advisories for the
northern Nebraska Panhandle and Niobrara County in southeast
Wyoming. Synoptic lift will be favored now through most of the day
with the upper-level trough axis west of the CWA, leading to
synoptic lift at the exit of the base of the trough. As the trough
rotates further south, much of the region will remain east of the
trough axis throughout the day, leading to continued synoptic lift
for most areas. Looking at the surface, there is a surface high
pressure system over southern Minnesota, leading to largely easterly
flow across the CWA with the clockwise rotation of the surface low.
Easterly flow is predominately upslope for most locations east of
the Laramie Range, supporting the synoptic lift already in place
across the region. Both the GFS and NAM suggest a strong area of
frontogenesis across the Nebraska Panhandle and even into portions
of southeast Wyoming. With moist, isentropic upglide across this
same location, continued snow chances look quite favorable, despite
the average (for this time of year) moisture values across the
region per the NAEFS Mean Precipitable Water. This moist, isentropic
upglide with average PW values will remain across much of the area
through the afternoon and evening into the overnight hours tonight.
However, with the very cold temperatures and average PW values, snow
accumulations look to be rather low, between 0.5 and 2 inches for
most locations. However, across the northern Nebraska Panhandle and
Niobrara County , the Pine Ridge should lead to localized enhanced
upslope flow, leading to higher snow accumulations, likely between 2
and 4 inches, for this area. As a result, Winter Weather Advisories
will remain in effect for these areas through 07Z tonight. The best
upward motion and moisture, isentropic upglide starts to come to an
end starting around 00Z tonight, leading to snow showers to taper
off after this time.

Another cold day is in store for Saturday as rather stagnant 700mb
flow keeps 700mb temperatures in the -18 to -15C range. The upper-
level trough will continue to rotate across the area, not moving
very fast due to weak 500mb cyclonic vorticity advection. A surface
low will develop off the Black Hills, dragging a secondary arctic
front through the region Sunday morning through the afternoon hours
as the upper-level troughs rotates through the region. 700mb
temperatures drop back into the -20 to -18C range Sunday morning
through the afternoon hours. Therefore, surface temperatures will
struggle to recover into the upper-teens and lower-20s everywhere.
Surface winds look to kick up again with this frontal passage,
potentially leading to bitter cold wind chills returning Sunday
morning into the afternoon hours. More on this in the long term
discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 108 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

No major changes, see previous discussion below.

Long term sees a cold start to the forecast period alongside some
light snow chances before temperatures warm back to near normal next
week alongside the return of what else - high winds.
Through the weekend and to start next week, morning lows are
expected to drop into the negatives to single digits, while daytime
highs on Saturday and Sunday will be stuck in the teens to 20`s
before warming back up to near normal temperatures Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile in the wake of the stout arctic high that will move into
the region, we may see some lingering light snowfall across the
region on Saturday and again Sunday when another quick moving system
grazes the region, but any accumulations will be minuscule at best.
Then into next week the ridging pattern will return over the western
US, though not quite as strong as it has been, allowing temperatures
to remain closer to near normal through the end of the period
alongside dry conditions. This will also signal the return of high
winds, particularly on Monday when the low level jet strengthens and
pressure gradients tighten. In house guidance is now up to a 60 to
85% chance of high winds for our usual wind prone locations, but the
main driver of these conditions will likely be the heightened
pressure gradients as the low level jet won`t be at it`s strongest,
which tends to lead to less overall high wind instances across the
CWA. Expect our usual wind prones including Arlington, Bordeaux, and
the Laramie Summit to likely reach high wind criteria, but this
should not spread elsewhere outside of breezy conditions. Otherwise
with the arctic airmass pushed out of the region and no major
systems in sight, a return to mostly benign conditions can be
expected as we move into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

A mix of flight categories from MVFR to IFR and even LIFR
expected through this evening as snow moves across the region.
CIGs will generally drop down to around 1k feet, while VIS will
vary depending on snow and BR. Winds generally 10-20 knots,
becoming lighter and variable overnight into tomorrow. By 12Z
tomorrow all sites should return to VFR as snow clears the
region and cloud decks lift.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Cold Weather Advisory until noon MST Saturday for WYZ102-108.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for WYZ102.
     Freezing Fog Advisory until 1 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ116-
     117.
NE...Cold Weather Advisory until noon MST Saturday for NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for NEZ002-
     003-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM/CG
AVIATION...CG