Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

607
FXUS65 KCYS 260510
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1010 PM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to marginally high winds are possible for the wind
  prone areas of southeast Wyoming tonight through Friday night.
  Wind gusts may not be consistent through the entire period
  with occasional breaks and lulls likely.

- Snow showers will return to the mountains and adjacent
  valleys Friday night, spreading into portions of the High
  Plains Saturday night.

- A strong cold front Saturday night will bring more winter-like
  temperatures back to the area for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 605 PM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

Winds have come down below warning thresholds across the area.
Therefore, all High Wind Warnings have expired. However, the
break may be short lived with additional marginally high winds
possible for the Arlington/Elk Mountain and Bordeaux areas late
tonight. Another High Wind Warning has been issued for these
areas. Overall confidence in this event is fairly low, but since
today`s event over-performed considerably, decided to err on
the side of caution and issue the next warning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

Highly anomalous weather continues across this area this Christmas
Day. Several locations already broke daily record highs before 11AM
this morning, though values were not quite as warm as yesterday due
to increased cloud cover ahead of a subtle upper level shortwave.
This feature is now apparent on GOES water vapor imagery, just
crossing over into Nebraska. A dry slot is apparent right behind the
axis, with improved moisture immediately behind. The upper level
system is also helping to draw the east, resulting strong winds
spreading into the I-25 corridor over the last few hours. Pressure
gradients across the barrier should come down around 5PM, bringing
at least a lull in the wind to most of the area. Meanwhile, a
secondary surface trough currently straddles central Wyoming from
southwest to the northeast. Convergence along the boundary is
helping to produce some banded shower activity associated with low-
level frontogenesis. This activity is located in an area of
surprisingly high instability for this time of year. The latest
mesoanalysis from the RAP indicates surface based CAPE exceeding
1000 J/kg along with bulk shear approaching 50 knots. Numerous
lightning strikes have been observed in Sweetwater County, slowly
moving off to the northeast. This will have the potential to produce
small hail, gusty winds, and brief downpours across central and
northern Carbon county through the early evening hours. Forcing for
this activity should evaporate by around 8PM or so.

The break in the wind may be fairly short lived as parameters creep
back to being marginally supportive for strong to high winds in the
wind prone areas by around midnight. Cross-barrier height and
pressure gradients are largely unimpressive, but 800-mb to 700-mb
modeled winds consistently fluctuate between about 40 and 60 knots
through Saturday morning. In addition, models show a good signal for
descent in the immediate lee of our mountain ranges. Overall, these
mixed signals produce a low confidence wind forecast for late this
evening through Saturday morning. In-house model guidance is not
particularly helpful either, with probabilities mostly between 30
and 50%. Will wait to make the decision until after expiring the
current round of wind headlines at 5PM, but currently leaning
towards a marginal High Wind Warning for Arlington/Elk Mountain and
Bordeaux through mid afternoon Friday. There may be another window
for strong winds (which could include the I-80 summit too) Friday
evening into Saturday morning, but will probably wait to tackle that
one later. Elsewhere across the area, Friday will bring another warm
day, but not quite as warm as the last several days with 700-mb
temperatures knocked down to around 0 to +2C behind today`s
shortwave. Forecast highs are still within a few degrees of daily
records almost everywhere, but we probably won`t have every climate
site break records like we have seen the last several days.

Lastly, we will finally begin to see the weather pattern trend
closer to a more typical wintertime pattern Friday night. An initial
cold front during the overnight hours (ahead of a much stronger
front Saturday night). Mid-level moisture will return to the
southwest flow simultaneously, spreading snow showers back into
Carbon County. This will be driven by a band of frontogenesis
combined with orographic lift on west and southwest slopes. More
about this system is described in the long term section below, but
travel impacts may be present in Carbon County as early as late
Friday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

Friday night into Saturday morning an upper level trough will
be pushing through the Intermountain West. As this trough pushes
through the Intermountain west there will be some moisture and
colder air associated will it. NAEFS Integrated Vapor transport
(IVT) depicts IVT values to reach and remain in the 90- 98th
percentile from late Friday night and throughout the day
Saturday. The longer ran models of Hi-res guidance progs a
frontogenetical band setting up somewhere near the Sierra Madres
and Snowy ranges. The 15z RRFS and NAM-Nest have this band over
the Mountains themselves and forecasting between 10 and 22
inches with the higher amounts over the Sierra Madres given the
Southwest to westerly flow that favor the Sierras over the
Snowy`s. The Euro and GFS have the band of FGEN setting up a
little more south over the WY/CO border. So the possible
accumulations weren`t as high but still gave around 7 inches
with a 10:1 ratio. Given the atmosphere will be more like 15:1
or higher given the time, temperature, and moisture content of
the air. A winter storm watch as snow accumulations between 13
to 20 inches were placed in the grids to match high-res
guidance. It will be interesting to see how the HRRR handles the
arctic front once its within the models resolution time.
Temperatures will drop as the arctic front pushes through the
region. The overnight temperatures look to drop into the teens
and single digits (for some areas) as the colder air settles
into the region. This will also bring colder but seasonable
temperatures to the region Sunday with temperatures in the mid
to upper 20`s for majority of the CWA. However, these winter-
like temperatures will be short lived as both model and ensemble
guidance look to reach a consensus about another upper level
ridge setting up and pushing into the region these last few days
of December.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1008 PM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

VFR conditions expected through the 06Z TAF period, with mid-
level clouds moving in later today. Low-level wind shear is
expected at all terminals through the overnight hours and into
the early morning hours. Surface winds increase late morning,
especially across KCYS, KLAR, and KRWL. Low-level wind shear
will remain a concern through the late morning hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch until 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ106-117.
     High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Friday for WYZ106.
     High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST Saturday for WYZ110.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late
     Saturday night for WYZ112.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MN
SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...AM