Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

438
FXUS65 KCYS 040823
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
223 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue
  into the next week.

- Fire weather concerns will increase on Monday alongside a
  chance at record high temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A pleasant end to the weekend is expected with sunny skies and mild
temperatures. With the bubble of high pressure strengthening over
the Four Corners region, slightly warmer temperatures are forecast
for Sunday. 700 mb temperatures will climb to over +10C, leading to
above average highs in the upper 70s and 80s. Subsidence under the
high pressure bubble will lead to sunny skies and no chance of
precipitation on Sunday.

Heading into the start of the work week, warmer and drier conditions
are expected. Although the ridge over the Four Corners will begin to
weaken, 700 mb temperatures will continue to rise. 700 mb
temperatures will warm above +12C, which is above the 99th
percentile for NAEFS climatology. The anomalously warm air
aloft will lead to a hot fall day on Monday, with highs in the
upper 70s to upper 80s. A few lower elevation locations may even
reach the low 90s. As a result, a few locations are likely to
break record highs. Records will most likely be broken in
southeast Wyoming, however it is possible that a few Nebraska
locations will be within a degree or two of current records.
With the ridge weakening, winds will turn more westerly,
leading to breezy conditions across southeast Wyoming during the
afternoon hours. Westerly winds will cause downsloping and dry
conditions, leading to critical fire weather conditions. With no
precipitation chances in sight, Fire Weather Watches are
already in place for Monday afternoon for portions of southeast
Wyoming. Winds will ease Monday night after sunset, however
overnight humidity recoveries are still expected to be poor.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

On Tuesday a diffused upper level trough makes its way into the Four
Corners region. This feature would flatten the upper level ridge
that has been parked over the area the last few days. The trough
would also bring an uptick in moisture, perhaps enough to kick off a
few showers and storms over higher elevations. Even with the
weakened ridge, our flow is still primarily out of the northwest and
the surface will remain dry and warm. Afternoon high temperatures
are likely to be in the low to mid 80s north and east of I-25. Mid
to high 70s possible west. Relative humidity values in the teens
could promote elevated fire weather conditions. Thankfully winds are
not expected to be particular strong and overnight recoveries are
fair.

Wednesday through Saturday is a rather uneventful stretch from a
meteorological perspective. Afternoon highs stay above average in
the high 70s to mid 80s. Mostly clear skies are expected. There are
no clear signals in model guidance for an appreciable disturbance,
just weak zonal flow on the north end of a weak upper level ridge.
We may have to wait until next weekend for a chance of a disturbance
in this stagnant pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions will continue across all terminals for the
duration of this TAF period. Overnight, winds generally variable
and less than 10 knots. Heading into Sunday, with the diurnal
cycle, winds ramp back up between 16Z and 19Z out of the south
with gusts as high as 20 to 25 knots.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for WYZ418>422-427-430-432.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...RZ