Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

417
FXUS65 KCYS 182350
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
550 PM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical Fire Weather conditions expected on Saturday with
  gusty winds and low humidity values, with further critical
  conditions possible Sunday and again Monday as humidities dive
  into the single digit values.

- Pattern change alongside a chance at some precipitation
  including storms and snow expected mid through end-week
  timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 328 PM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Minimal changes to the overall forecast package this afternoon
aside from the upgrade of a Fire Weather Watch to Red Flag
Warning for Sunday into Monday. For today, Red Flag Warning is
verifying as breezy winds alongside low RH values into the mid
to low teens are ongoing under a ridge of high pressure that is
expected to dominate into the early week timeframe. A few weak
echoes are seen on radar in Dawes County, but outside of
providing some clouds and possible virga it is unlikely
precipitation is making it to the ground with the dry conditions
present. Overnight we will see clear skies help contribute to
another cold spell with temperatures around or just below
freezing across the region. Moving into Sunday, while winds
will abate, the incredibly dry conditions with RH values
dropping into the low teens to single digits alongside the
chance of a breeze or two is enough to warrant concern for
critical fire weather conditions. And overnight recoveries will
be very poor Sunday night into Monday followed by a much windier
and even more critical fire weather day on Monday. Therefore,
the Red Flag Warning felt necessary to account for this
incredibly dry and hazardous period for new fire starts.

Outside of this, sensible weather concerns remain minimal.
Temperatures on Sunday will return to spring-like with highs in
the 60`s to 70`s, and by Monday we may start to see a more
summer-like day as temperatures continue to rise into the
upper 70`s and low to mid 80`s, around 15 to 20 degrees above
normal for this time of year and in some locations beginning to
approach record highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 328 PM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026

A high amplitude upper level ridge will be responsible for the
prevailing conditions to start off Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, this
ridge will bring along with it dry and sunny conditions. We start
off the day in the upper 30s to low 40s across much of the area.
Temperatures reach the 70s in the mountain interior and mid 70 and
80s over SE WY and the NE Panhandle. This is a good 20 degrees above
average for this time of year and within the 90th percentile of
700mb climate per the NAEFS. Some sites, particularly in valley
regions of the Nebraska Panhandle, may overperform and tie their
record highs. As usual with unseasonable warmth our relative
humidity values are also expected to be low during the day, reaching
the low teens. Winds should be on the lighter side given the ridge
passing overhead, but given the dry preceding conditions and the
tall mixing heights of nearly 14 kft, the fire threat is still a
concern. RH recoveries overnight are poor.

Ensemble models are in good agreement of a closed low moving in over
the Pacific Northwest Wednesday and our upper level ridge moving
east. We will be in the southwesterly flow regime of the low
pressure system by this point. We can expect increasing upper level
cloud coverage from west to east overnight Tuesday and through
Wednesday. Temperatures appear to be about the same as Tuesday,
perhaps slightly cooler with the increased cloud cover. Dry
conditions continue as well, with minimum RH values reaching the
teens once again in the afternoon and evenings. However, the winds
are a much bigger concern when talking about fire potential. ML
high wind products are indicating an elevated probability of high
winds over our wind prones (~40% of exceedance). Meaning gusts of 40
to 50 mph are likely to be felt over portions of our CWA,
particularly over the interior mountain ranges. Meteorologically
this increase in winds is in response to lee cyclogenesis to the
north of the area. A dryline may take shape in the evening across
the Nebraska Panhandle. While we are at long range here, some ML
guidance are starting to pick out elevated thunderstorm potential
along this dryline, with numerical grand ensemble giving about 50%
chances of MUCAPE reaching above 100 J/kg currently. The vertical
profiles in this environment are trending towards dry at the surface
with deep layer mixing. Inverted-v soundings may support a wind
threat with any high based convection. Again, we are a ways away, so
guidance may change. This may also have further implications on
anticipated fire weather conditions as little precip is likely to
make it to the surface. Additionally any thunderstorms may increase
the threat of dry lightning or influence on surface winds.

Overnight winds increase as the mid level low moves off to the
northeast and a Pacific cold front moves through. Aloft we are still
at the base of the upper level trough. Along this base are likely to
be a few embedded vorticity maxima that may provide more forcing
for ascent for the next few days. There is a bit more uncertainty on
the amplitude of the remaining troughing. Cluster analysis of
ensembles seem to paint GEFS members as being more supportive of
deeper maximums and ENS and GEPS members with weaker lobes where
most of the energy parts with the Wednesday system to the northeast.
What this means to us is a slight increase in precipitation
probabilities tied to stronger upper level solutions. Regardless,
probabilities of seeing measurable precipitation over a large
portion of our CWA remains low, except for maybe the mountains.
Temperatures are likely to cool in combination of increased cloud
cover and the Pacific front which hopefully will keep us out of
widespread fire weather conditions, though portions of the southern
NE Panhandle may have RH values in the 20s during the day.

Models are advertising an arctic front sometime overnight Thursday
which may push us towards more seasonable temperatures Friday. Model
spread remains high at this range in terms of upper-level features.
Thus while precip chances remain elevated, the amount is still in
question. Saturday appears to be much the same as Friday weather
wise.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Some lingering gusty conditions at terminals before winds calm
after sunset. Clear skies are expected overnight at the
Nebraska terminals while a period of scattered mid to high
level cloud coverage develop over the Southeastern Wyoming
terminals after 6z. VFR conditions are expected with this cloud
cover. These clouds are likely to dissipate a few hours after
sunrise and clear skies are expected to prevail at all terminals
for the remainder of Sunday. Winds at the NE panhandle
terminals to stay generally below 15 kts through the forecast
period and may be variable at times. At WY terminals gusts to 25
kts may occur in the afternoon hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ430>433.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM MDT Monday for
     WYZ417-418-430>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434>437.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM MDT Monday for
     NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...RV