Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

768
FXUS65 KCYS 232354
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
554 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A High Wind Warning in effect until 3 PM for Carbon County
  and a very small portion of Albany County.

- Above average highs this afternoon, but a cold front will drop
  temperatures to around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the
  weekend.

- Near normal temperatures and a bit warmer by Tuesday into
  Wednesday, but next Pacific system will be approaching from
  the Pacific Northwest by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

This weekend split flow will continue to decline our
precipitation chances as moisture gets pushed just to our east.
The pattern through the forecast period will consist of the
split in flow as upper level troughing lifts up and combines
with Canadian troughing, with a very quick transient ridge
building over the area on Saturday, but the other half of the
split flow in the form of a cutoff low will be moving into the
Four Corners, becoming the focal point for our forecast through
Monday evening. At the surface, a cold front moves across this
evening and should fully pass through our region by Saturday
morning, with some high pressure overtaking in its wake but
multiple shortwaves passing across through the weekend.

Under this pattern, we`ll see a quick chance of precipitation
this evening along the trough axis and a weak boundary setting
up across the Nebraska Panhandle and draping down through
Laramie County. Have included some shower chances across this
area, but expected those to be isolated to possibly scattered
with minimal QPF accumulations. This flow is also struggling to
show meaningful precipitation in the high terrain as the jet
weakens this afternoon and evening and flow begins to lower in
response, and CAMs are not indicating we`ll see anything
meaningful in this region alongside NBM guidance. The next
noteworthy batch of precipitation is expected Saturday evening
into Sunday under southerly to southwesterly flow as moisture
begins to return, and continues through Sunday night into
Monday. The issue will be the fact that the bulk of this
moisture gets pushed to our east, and without a strong forcing
mechanism over the area we`ll struggle to get much more than
scattered weak showers through this period. Latest QPF analysis
shows only widespread precipitation totals in the 0.1-0.2 inch
range, with Cheyenne County expected to be the "big winner" as
this area will be closest to the better moisture in Central
Nebraska with totals nearing 0.3-0.5 inch. Accounting for bias
correction, this could even be on the high side, but taking a
look at ensembles, it appears that most guidance errs on the
side of 0.1-0.4 inch widespread which would at least give the
hope for some much needed moisture, but don`t bank on a soaker.
The bulk of this also falls either in the high terrain or east,
so lower elevations in Carbon and Albany Counties may be sitting
this one out.

Outside of precipitation, our cold front will bring notably
cooler temperatures as highs sit around 5 to 10 degrees below
normal on both Saturday and Sunday, with widespread highs in the
50`s to 40`s and overnight lows in the 30`s. These near freezing
to freezing conditions could even encourage some wintry
precipitation to mix in with morning rain, but a few flurries
and rain/snow mix are the most that is expected out of this
currently. Finally, the gusty conditions we`ve seen today should
persist through Saturday morning as the pressure gradients shift
eastwards, but by the afternoon winds should be relaxing with
relatively benign speeds for this region to conclude the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Active weather will characterize the first few days of the long
term period from Monday through Tuesday night. On Monday
morning, weak surface troughing will extend from the New Mexico
high plains northward through Colorado and western Nebraska.
Seasonably high surface moisture will be in place with ensemble
guidance supporting PWAT values on the order of 1-2 sigma. The
center of a ridge of high pressure will be located in the
northern high plains, resulting in broad easterly flow around
its base including western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming. These
factors combined will result in overcast conditions with
numerous clouds and showers around throughout the day. Ensemble
guidance is mixed as to liquid totals given a lack of a well-
defined surface low over the high plains. This is currently
resulting in a highly dispersive forecast with some guidance
supporting a moderate to heavy rainfall event east of I-25
through the NE panhandle and another large group of ensemble
members keeping this event less organized and farther east. Some
forecast guidance members, particularly the operational ECMWF,
indicate a potential overlap between cold temperatures in east-
northeasterly flow and heavier QPF, enough to produce some light
snowfall on the order of 1-3 inches for east-central Wyoming
and the northern Nebraska panhandle. Currently, this outcome
appears to be somewhat of an outlier compared to the rest of
guidance. Overall, with weak forcing aloft and a lack of a more
defined surface feature, we will favor the drier (and less
snowy) end of the guidance package for the Monday timeframe.
Still, abundant cloud cover and east-northeasterly flow should
keep temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average
for Monday. This messy, disorganized system drifts east of the
region on Monday night, with any lingering shower activity
ending possibly as early as 6 to 9pm. After a partly cloudy
overnight, attention quickly turns to our next system moving
from the Great Basin into southwest Wyoming on Tuesday
afternoon. Unlike the Monday event, this system will feature a
potent mid/upper level low pressure center and faster wind
speeds aloft. However, recent ensemble guidance trends continue
to show very little precipitation making it to the ground
outside of the mountains with this system as it translates
eastward on Tuesday evening and overnight. In the Snowy, Sierra
Madre, and northern Laramie ranges, current model QPF averages
are around 0.1 to 0.2 inches of liquid. As this system exits
eastward on Tuesday night, a fast jet stream in the 700-500mb
layer is indicated by most guidance in an west-east orientation
across southeast Wyoming. Given the favorable flow orientation,
upper-level pattern and wind speeds aloft it is possible that a
higher-wind event may be in the works for the Wednesday
timeframe over the wind prone locations of southeast Wyoming.
Dry zonal to north-westerly flow will resume over the region
from Thursday through the end of the week with limited impacts
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

There is a slight chance of a few showers and storms developing in
the Nebraska panhandle this evening. However, storms should not pose
much of an impact aside from gusty winds and potentially lightning.
Winds will shift more northerly later tonight as a cold front moves
across the area. Gusty winds are expected behind the front with
gusts over 20 kts expected early Saturday morning. Cannot rule out
brief MVFR CIGs with the frontal passage with HREF probability of
low CIGs currently sitting at around 20 percent for KCYS, KLAR,
KRWL, and KCDR. Winds will begin to weaken later in the day on
Saturday, with increasing precipitation chances.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...SF