Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

947
FXUS65 KCYS 020522
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
Issued by National Weather Service Riverton WY
1122 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming and drying trend expected through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

With a shortwave exiting Wyoming today, a few isolated showers
and thunderstorms could pop up this afternoon. There is a bit of
remnant monsoon moisture in the mid-levels, so moderate to
heavy rain could be possible in any thunderstorms that develop.
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely with MUCAPE barely maxing out
around 500 J/kg. A few lingering showers could be possible
overnight as moisture increases slightly in the mid-levels.

Wednesday will feature much of the same weather albeit a bit
warmer and windier. With an upper-level ridge building over the
eastern half of the country, areas east of the Laramie Range
will see their temperatures rise by about 5 to 10 degrees
compared to Tuesday. Most of the Nebraska panhandle will see
highs return to the 90s, making for a warm start to September.
While areas west of the Laramie Range may not benefit from the
increased temperatures, they will see the wind. With an upper-
level trough coming onshore of the Pacific Northwest, a weak 250
mb jet will be pushed into the CWA. Strong southwest flow will
lead to a windy day across Carbon and Albany Counties with
frequent gusts over 45 MPH likely throughout the afternoon and
evening. Another weak disturbance moving across the CWA on
Wednesday will spark another round of afternoon and evening
convection. Once again, there will be very little instability
and shear so severe storms are unlikely. Even heavy rain is less
plausible with the monsoon plume weakening and PWATs dropping
down to more typical values.

Looking at a dry and sunny day for Thursday as the ridge to the
east strengthens. Temperatures will continue to rise, with highs
a few degrees warmer than Wednesday. Conditions will remain
breezy on Thursday as the CWA still sits under southwest flow.
The breezy and dry conditions will lead to areas of increased
concern for fire weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Friday...Although a bit of pseudo monsoonal moisture at mid
levels will be over our forecast area, the deeper moisture on
southwest flow aloft will remain over Colorado and New Mexico,
thus continued dry for us. 700 mb temperatures suggest summer
like heat will continue for warm weather lovers.

Saturday...Low and mid level moisture increases somewhat via
precipitable water content, and the deeper moisture will create
widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from the
Laramie Valley to near Douglas and nearby locations in the
afternoon and evening hours. Dry elsewhere. The decent 700 mb
temperatures will aid in keeping similar temperatures to Friday.

Sunday...Beneficial rains look quite promising as there will be
an increase in precipitable water values via a better monsoonal
moisture tap. The combination of passing shortwave troughs
aloft and low level mechanical lift and orographic effects will
help produce scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, most numerous over and near the mountains.

Monday...With adequate low and mid level moisture availability
combined with upslope lift and passing shortwave troughs aloft,
expect scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly over
and west of Interstate 25, with the showers and thunderstorms
propagating and developing mainly east of I-25 in the evening.
Still some uncertainty with regard to maximum temperatures, as
an early September cold front may pass across our counties
bringing in a refreshing respite from the heat. With still so
much uncertainty, will leave the warmer temperatures as is to
blend in with our neighboring offices, but this day will likely
be cooler than currently forecasted.

Tuesday...An autumnal like pattern greets us synoptically for
September with a rather significant shortwave trough aloft
traveling eastward across Montana. Still enough atmospheric
moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms south of
a Rawlins to Scottsbluff line. Again, temperatures may be cooler
than currently forecasted with later model runs and trends.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

High confidence in VFR through the TAF period under dry
conditions, as longwave ridging builds across the eastern half
of the country. Can expect the typical onset of diurnal cumulus
aoa 20 kft late tomorrow morning into the evening as some mid-
level moisture remains trapped underneath the ridge. Winds will
be the primary concern, mainly after 15Z, where 20-25 kt SW
winds may gust as high as 30-35 knots, primarily at KLAR and
KRWL. East of the Laramie Range, winds are expected to remain
out of the SW around 10-15 knots along the western periphery of
a surface high. There is a slight chance for a few high-based
showers and thunderstorms primarily for KAIA and KBFF after 00Z,
however confidence isn`t high enough to introduce a PROB30
group at this time. Winds from proximity showers/storms and any
outflow boundaries may result in gusty and erratic winds.
Showers are expected to quickly dissipate after sunset.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WFOCYS
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...WFOCYS