Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

815
FXUS65 KCYS 051125
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming resumes Wednesday as a ridge builds back in, with
  similar temperatures next weekend as this past weekend.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions may make a return
  late week into the weekend due to low RH and marginal winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1212 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Lets start off the short term period, Wednesday through Thursday
night, looking at the upper levels. Currently we are sitting under a
weak trough, bringing west northwest flow into the region. As we
progress, this will push off to the east as ridging over the Desert
Southwest noses back into our CWA by Thursday. The orientation of
the ridge keeps us in the northeast quadrant, which will not be
favorable for a monsoonal push of moisture, so we will remain dry
through this forecast period. However, this ridge will aid in
bringing hot southerly flow back into our CWA. This is depicted
nicely with 700MB temperatures surging back into the 16-20 degrees C
range by Thursday. This will be reflected nicely at the surface with
highs topping out in the 80s on Wednesday and 90s to near 100 on
Thursday. Taking a quick look at winds, not much to write about
there either as no high wind events in the foreseeable future. A
weak mid-level jet slides through late Wednesday, with the strongest
winds around 40 knots across eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle. With enough subsidence, negative Omega (GFS), some of
these winds will make it to the surface late Wednesday and we will
see a slight uptick at the surface with gusts 30 to 35 mph. The
other thing that we will be monitoring is the fire weather
potential, we will see minimum RH values tank over the next two days
to as low as 5 percent. However, winds will not be there for
critical conditions, so elevated fire weather concerns will be in
play by Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Will keep this long term discussion short a sweet as there is not
much to talk about with the synoptic set-up that will take hold over
the region. Starting off the long term period, Friday marks the day
that ridging takes hold. This will not only usher in warmer
temperatures, but block or hamper any moisture transport into the
region, resulting in an increased risk of critical and/or elevated
fire weather conditions, more on that in a bit. Therefore, expect
dry conditions with highs topping out well into the 90s by Friday.
Then the real heat makes a return over the weekend when highs once
again surge into the low 100s, warmest across far eastern Wyoming
and the Nebraska Panhandle. As mentioned briefly, with the ridge
strengthening, don`t expect much relief from any precipitation as we
will remain dry heading into next week. A byproduct of this dryness
and heat will be an increase in fire weather concerns as daytime RH
values plummet into the single digit to teens each day. Because of
this, expect an elevated fire weather environment, with the
potential to become critical with any increase in winds. So stay
tuned...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Low clouds/CIGs are plaguing KCYS, KBFF, KAIA, and KSNY, all
based on the latest nighttime microphysics satellite imagery.
This is due to moist upslope flow and will impact or be in the
VC for the next few hours, up to and around sunrise. So, I went
ahead and added a few TEMPO groups to account for this. Smoke
will continue to be an issue, but not enough to lower flight
categories to less than VFR. Winds should not be a factor for
this TAF period. After the clouds erode, VFR conditions will
prevail across all terminals for the remainder of this forecast
period.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...RZ