Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

990
FXUS65 KCYS 301258
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
658 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally dense fog will persist over portions of the High
  Plains Friday morning. Another round of fog is possible Friday
  night into Saturday morning.

- Mild conditions are expected for Halloween (Saturday), though
  a few showers will be possible along and west of I-25.

- A complex but disorganized storm system will move into the
  area Sunday night, bringing cooler temperatures and a chance
  for rain and high elevation snow showers.

- Widespread blustery conditions are anticipated Monday into
  Tuesday along and east of the Laramie range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

GOES satellite imagery this morning shows plentiful mid to upper
level cloud cover streaming across the area with moist southwest
flow continuing aloft. At the surface, a broad high pressure system
over the northern Plains is supporting low-level south to southeast
winds over the High Plains. This moisture flux has lead to the
development of areas of dense fog along and east of I-25 once again.
Fog is expected to clear out in the next few hours right around the
immediate vicinity of Cheyenne as winds turn more westerly, but
should hold on further north and east into the mid to late morning
hours today. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for portions of
the area, and may need to be expanded northward later this morning
as fog spread further. Low clouds will be slow to break today in the
Nebraska panhandle, keeping temperatures closer to seasonal
averages. The most sunshine is expected to be found along the I-25
corridor to the WY/NE border, which should see temperatures warm
into the low to mid 60s today.

Moisture return is expected again this evening into the overnight,
leading to another chance for areas of fog across the High Plains,
kicking off Halloween Saturday with spooky conditions. Trick-or-
treat conditions look largely pleasant across the area this weekend.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees Saturday compared to Friday due
to increased cloud cover, but we should still comfortably reach the
mid 50s to lower 60s for all areas. Model guidance is in good
agreement showing a more notable vorticity maximum pushing into the
area out of the southwest Saturday morning. This feature should
support a few showers moving into Carbon county during the morning
hours, and then spreading into Albany county, and possibly as far
east as the I-25 corridor during the afternoon hours. Widespread
rainfall is not anticipated, but expect to see occasional light
shower activity, particularly in Carbon and Albany counties. Keeping
an umbrella handy may not be a bad idea for trick-or-treaters along
and west of I-25. Due to the high humidity, mild temperatures are
expected once again Saturday night. Most areas will only drop to the
mid 40s by 9PM before bottoming out in the upper 30s to lower 40s (a
little chillier in Laramie as usual) Sunday morning. Sunday`s highs
will knock off a few more degrees with skies expected to become
mostly cloudy by the afternoon. Southerly winds will be on the
increase in advance of the next storm system which will approach the
area Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A complex storm system will bring a change in the weather for our
area Sunday night into the early part of next week. This will be a
fairly large and potent weather system, but two or even three upper
distinct upper level low pressure systems moving across the west
will make for a very messy setup. While a deep but somewhat narrow
trough approaches from the west, another moisture-laden system will
race into southern California along a potent sub-tropical jet
stream. This system will get pulled into or around the primary
trough as it moves through the area. Meanwhile, there is potential
for another upper level low over the northern Rockies to drop down
simultaneously, interfering further with each system. While moisture
will once again be extremely abundant (NAEFS mean precipitable water
values exceed the 99th percentile of climatology Sunday night!),
this system will have the same issue as most others this fall:
a lack of strong forcing to actually extract this moisture as
precipitation.

Recent model guidance has trended largely towards the scenario where
each of these upper level low pressure systems remain independent,
with their forcing and lift interfering with one another. The
overall evolution of the storm system has also trended more
progressive and faster The net impact for our area is a decrease in
the probability for widespread precipitation. While most areas can
still expect some rain/snow showers with this event, the most likely
scenario for QPF is fairly modest at this time. Greater than 75% of
ensemble members have QPF under 0.25" for most areas inside a
roughly Laramie to Glendo to Sidney triangle. There is still
potential for between 0.25" and 0.75" liquid precipitation in Carbon
county and along the Douglas to Chadron corridor, where forcing may
be slightly more favorable. Still, about 25% of ensemble members
keep the storm system too disorganized to deliver decent
precipitation even to the Douglas to Chadron corridor, leaving most
of the High Plains dry. Overall, confidence in expected QPF is
highest for Carbon county at this time. There, extremely moist
southwest flow can produce favorable orographic lift in the first
phase of the storm system Sunday night into Monday morning, even if
the second phase (the potential for wrap-around moisture) fails to
materialize. Temperatures will be quite warm in advance of this
system, meaning that snow levels will probably be as high as 9000
ft. Snow levels will gradually fall Sunday night and Monday, but
there is a bit of uncertainty in seeing any precipitation at all
after the colder airmass moves into the area. Probabilities for
advisory criteria snowfall remain around 50/50 in the Snowy and
Sierra Madre ranges, and about 25% in the northern Laramie
range.

Regardless of the precipitation outcome, a cold front will sweep
through the area Sunday night and cooler and windier conditions for
most areas on Monday. Look for a rapid increase in northwest winds
Monday morning behind the frontal boundary. There is fairly high
confidence in widespread wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph along and east
of the Laramie Range through much of the day Monday. Most of these
areas have about a 20 to 30% chance for winds exceeding high wind
criteria at this time. Temperatures will actually be several degrees
below seasonal averages, only reaching the mid to upper 40s for most
areas. Tuesday will bring temperatures closer to seasonal averages
and continued northwest winds, but they should not be as strong as
Monday.

Midweek onwards, disorganized ridging is expected to build back into
the area. Temperatures look generally close to remain fairly close
to seasonal averages with lighter winds, though breezy conditions
may remain in the typical wind prone areas. There is potential for
at least one if not two additional closed low systems later in the
week towards next weekend, which may bring another chance for
precipitation. However, confidence is extremely low at this lead
time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Fog and low clouds remain the primary aviation concern this
morning. Now that CYS has cleared, expect VFR to prevail at WY
terminals, though VCFG was still included for CYS due to fog
close by. Winds will be generally south to southwest, and gusty
at RWL. Another round of low clouds or fog may dip back into CYS
late this evening or overnight.

Nebraska panhandle terminals will still be dealing with fog and
low CIGs for several more hours. For AIA and SNY, there is high
confidence in LIFR to IFR conditions for much of the morning,
improving to MVFR late morning, and perhaps briefly VFR this
afternoon before coming down again this evening. Confidence is
lower in IFR conditions at BFF and CDR, where MVFR may prevail,
but periods of IFR are still probable. There, VFR is expected
this afternoon, though both may still return to MVFR later this
evening.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for WYZ119.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for NEZ020-054-
     055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN