Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

717
FXUS65 KCYS 301200
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
600 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances are expected through the rest of this
  weekend and later on Monday. Strong to severe wind gusts will
  be possible Sunday, with moderate to heavy rain possible
  Sunday and Monday.

- Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday with strong
  gusty winds up to 65 MPH possible.

- Drying and warming trend expected going into mid to late
  week with growing potential for elevated fire weather
  conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 155 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Some nighttime/early morning convection continues to track east
over Carbon and Albany counties based on current KCYS radar.
This activity is likely in response to a potent secondary
shortwave and a 90kt jet shifting east into central Wyoming at
this hour. Some weak mid to upper level forcing will continue
prior to sunrise along with 100 to 300 j/kg of elevated CAPE
across mostly southeast Wyoming. This should be enough for
widely scattered rain showers and embedded thunder...so added
a slight chance of thunder to the forecast until 8 AM. Added POP
further east towards the I-25 corridor with high res models
showing some scattered showers impacting Cheyenne and Wheatland
early this morning. A few cells may contain heavy rainfall near
the Colorado border through noon.

A bit of a tricky forecast for Sunday and Sunday evening. Models
all show enhanced upper level difluence in the right-entrance
region of the 90-100 knot jet max across central Wyoming today
as it and a series of potent upper level disturbances track east
or northeast. Although the low to midlevels of the atmosphere
appear pretty worked-over from yesterday`s convection (and possibly
this morning) with model soundings showing lower lapse rates
and limited CAPE compared to Saturday, concerned that we may
see another round of (several) lines of thunderstorms moving
across the area today due to the forcing alone. Thankfully, it
will generally be cooler today with highs in the 70s to low 80s
for most of southeast Wyoming, and mid 80s to low 90s for western
Nebraska. Instability doesn`t appear as high as Saturday, but
models are still showing 300 to 800 j/kg MLCAPE into the afternoon
which is enough to produce widely scattered/scattered thunderstorms.
A Marginal Risk for strong gusty winds remains over most of the
forecast area, but do not think gusts will be as strong as
yesterday. In addition, very heavy rainfall is certainly
possible with some of these storms today, mainly across
southeast Wyoming. Kept POP between 30 to 60 percent along and
west of I-25...with more isolated coverage further east and
northeast across east central Wyoming and western Nebraska.
Expect this convection to dissipate rather quickly this evening
as the jet axis lifts northeast tonight. Other than that, breezy
to locally windy conditions are expected for most of southeast
Wyoming due to a decent surface pressure gradient but also the
upper level jet nearly overhead. Expect wind gusts of 35 to 45
MPH, mainly Carbon and Albany counties and east central Wyoming
(higher gusts possible in and near thunderstorms).

Unsettled weather continues into Monday, but this time later in
the day. All models show a potent upper level trough lifting
northeast out of the southwest US. Primary trough axis will
be a slow mover and over Utah extending east into northern
Colorado by late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. It is
expected to lift northward into southern Wyoming Monday night.
Expect mid to high cloudiness to push north ahead of the trough
through the day...which may greatly limit low to midlevel
instability and CAPE. At this time, model soundings show a
respectable 500 j/kg of MLCAPE and elevated CAPE into the
evening hours. Some decent forcing is noted ahead of the trough,
with enhanced midlevel OMEGA along and just north of I-80 due
to some low level convergence, remnant instability, and mid to
upper divergent flow. Some ensemble members show a potential for
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall with QPF amounts above a
half inch along the I-80 corridor and the North Platte River
Valley...tapering off as you head further north. However, all
high res guidance isn`t too excited about the prospect of heavy
rainfall with prog reflectivity showing some light showers
lifting north and weakening as they push north of I-80...but not
much deep convection. Kept POP around 60 percent for the I-80
corridor, with values closer to 30 to 40 percent across east
central Wyoming and the northern/central NE panhandle. Kept QPF
around a tenth to two tenths of an inch for now due to low
confidence with higher amounts between 0.50 to 0.75. Remaining
near average for this time of the year with highs in the mid 70s
to mid 80s for most locations (warmest east of I-25).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

We will be on a dry and warming trend through the rest of the
long term as flow aloft laxes and moisture decreases. While most
of the upper level disturbances stay west and north, there may
be enough lingering monsoonal moisture to keep a few PM showers
and thunderstorms going. Widespread rain is not expected given
the dry near surface conditions. Minimum afternoon RH values in
the mid to low 20s and gusty winds could promote elevated fire
conditions, mainly in the northern and western counties. This
drying pattern is on track to be reinforced in the very
long term as the ridge builds back west and the jetstream stays
out of our area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Another round of thunderstorms expected today as a potent jet stream
and midlevel disturbance move northeast across the area.
Thunderstorms won`t be as numerous as Saturday, but locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds are possible, mainly across the southeast
Wyoming terminals into early this evening.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail with brief MVFR
possible for the southeast Wyoming terminals as a line of
thunderstorms pushes across KRWL, KLAR, and KCYS between 19z and 00z
Monday. Wind gusts up to 55 knots, very heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning possible as these storms move rapidly to the east. Not as
confident with most of the western Nebraska terminals, so kept VCSH
in the TAF for now. Windy conditions expected today for KRWL and
KLAR, even without thunderstorm activity, with gusts up to 35 knots
between 14z and 23z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...TJT