Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

338
FXUS65 KCYS 120711
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
111 AM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect for areas east of the Laramie
  Range today and Monday due to dry conditions.

- There will be chances of afternoon and evening showers and a
  few thunderstorms Monday night through Friday, with the best
  chance Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 111 AM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

As the shortwave that moved through the CWA Saturday exits the
region, southwesterly flow aloft along with lee-side troughing
at the surface will support a favorable dry downslope regime
east of the Laramie Range. This will lead to elevated fire
weather concerns today, locally critical, even though highs this
afternoon will be slightly cooler then yesterday. Expect highs
to top out in the 60s west of the I-25 corridor and 70s off to
the east, warmest across the Nebraska Panhandle where a few
locations may hit the 80 degree mark. These temps along with dry
west to southwest winds 15 to 20 mph, gusts up to 35 mph, and
min RH values tanking into the 8 to 12 percent range, along with
dry fuels, make for a ripe environment for fire starts and
spread. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning that were issued
yesterday remains in effect which begins at noon today for the
eastern half of our CWA. These drier conditions will bleed over
into the nighttime hours and Monday as dry downsloping winds
continue. This will make for poor overnight RH recovery Sunday
night and as such, the Red Flag Warning for the same area
remains in effect through 8pm Monday.

Elsewhere across the CWA, precipitation chances increase Sunday
night through Monday as another weak shortwave slides into our CWA.
This time, precipitation chances will mainly be confined to areas
west of the I-25 corridor. This is depicted nicely on hi-res
guidance, showing a few isolated showers that develops Sunday night
over the higher terrain. A caveat, low-levels will remain dry which
will make most of the precipitation evaporate before hitting the
ground, producing localized gusty winds. Modeled soundings show the
classical signature for this with an Inverted-V which trickles into
Monday. This is why we have the Red Flag Warning out through 8PM
Monday. Over the higher terrain, mainly above 6K feet, it is not out
of the realm of possibility that snow showers develop causing light
accumulations of generally less than an inch. This activity will
linger into Monday night as a shortwave ejects northeast into
our region as a deep low edges closer to our CWA. So, Monday`s
highs will be much like today while lows are a tad cooler, with
low 30s west of the Laramie Range and near 40 to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

As we move into the middle of next week, the pattern will remain
active and progressive, with a series of shortwave troughs moving
through Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska. With the forcing
for ascent appearing to be weak at this time, in addition to PWAT
values around climatology, confidence in seeing any appreciable
precipitation is low, which is certainly not what we want to see
given our severe to extreme drought conditions across our entire
region. In terms of temperatures, highs on Tuesday look to be 5-10
degrees above climatology mainly in the upper 50s and low 60s along
and east of the I-25 corridor, with 40s and 50s west of the Laramie
Range.

Numerous shortwave troughs embedded in the flow continue to traverse
our area Wednesday and Thursday in this progressive pattern.
However, the strongest DCVA is progged to be well to our south over
Eastern Colorado, so QPF looks to remain spotty and light with
amounts generally < 0.1" as suggested by LREF ensemble guidance.
Winds are also expected to ramp up on Wednesday morning, with in-
house random forest guidance giving both Arlington and Bordeaux 35-
40% probabilities of exceeding high wind criteria. This is due to an
enhanced gradient thanks to lee cyclogenesis occurring over
Southwestern Nebraska, resulting in 700 mb flow increasing to 40-45
knots. Temperatures are also expected to be mild given the downslope
flow regime, with NBM 50th percentile temperatures approaching 70
degrees for our Nebraska counties on Wednesday, increasing to 70-75
degrees on Thursday. It`s a little far out at this time, but would
not be shocked to see a few 80 degree readings on Thursday as 500 mb
heights rise ahead of the next incoming system. Depending on how
much moisture we can squeeze out of each weak impulse this week,
fire highlights may be needed during the Wednesday-Thursday
timeframe given the increase in winds, dry fuels, anomalously warm
temperatures, and mean RH progged to be below 20%.

Friday will feature much cooler temperatures behind a cold front
moving through Eastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska overnight, so
can expect high temperatures to run about 20 degrees cooler relative
to Thursday. Week mid-level ridging builds across the area into the
weekend, so anticipate a warming trend and dry conditions at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Quick moving upper level disturbance will lift north of the area
tonight and eject northeast into the Dakotas by early Sunday
morning. Any remnant showers will dissipate by 09z, with clearing
skies and lighter winds into Sunday.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail through the rest
of the night and into Sunday with a very low potential for fog due
to limited or no precipitation amounts. Relatively light winds
tonight will become southwesterly after 15z Sunday, with gusts of 25
to 35 knots for KRWL and KLAR, and generally up to 25 knots for KCYS
and the western Nebraska terminals.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT Monday for
     WYZ417>419-430>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT Monday for
     NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...TJT