Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

342
FXUS65 KCYS 271207
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
607 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect cooler temperatures Friday with south to southeast
  winds developing. These winds may be strong at times tonight
  over the High Plains.

- Another round of near record warmth and critical fire weather
  conditions is expected Saturday through Monday. A few high-
  based virga showers will be possible each evening.

- Improved chances for precipitation return to start April in
  the middle part to latter part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A cooler airmass is in place across the area this morning, providing
a break from the persistent record breaking warm temperatures.
Moisture is present below about 700-mb, but the airmass between 300
and 700-mb is extremely dry, which is limiting rain and snow shower
activity. Still, we have some low clouds present, which may lower
and produce patchy fog across portions of the area, mainly along the
Pine Ridge and southern Laramie Range. The probability of any decent
rainfall is quite minimal today, but we may see some light sprinkles
out of this morning`s low clouds and weak, shallow upslope flow.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy for much of the area today. Even as
low cloud cover gradually decreases through the day, high cloud
cover will increase, limiting sunshine. As a result, temperatures
were nudged down towards the NBM 25th percentile this afternoon. The
surface ridge axis will move through the area around sunrise, after
which time the very strong surface high pressure system will begin
to pull off to the east. As pressure falls from west to east,
southerly winds will be on the increase. The Laramie area will be
the first to see southeast winds get gusty this morning, as is
typical when a surface high parks up against the Laramie Range.
Southerly winds will increase through the day over the rest of
southeast Wyoming, and spread into western Nebraska this afternoon
and evening. A very strong reverse-pressure gradient will setup
across the High Plains this evening, setting up an impressive
nocturnal low-level jet. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will develop
first around Laramie and the I-80 summit late this afternoon, and
then spread into the elevated terrain of the High Plains this
evening. The best chance for a few gusts exceeding 50 mph will be
along the north side of the Cheyenne ridge (northern Laramie,
southern Platte, southern Goshen, Banner counties), and along the
Pine Ridge from Douglas to Chadron. There is about a 30% chance for
a few gusts over 60 mph in this area, but this probability is too
low to add a High Wind headline.

The usual programming of this season will resume Saturday as the
powerful ridge over the southern Rockies rebounds. Rapid warm air
advection will push 700-mb temperatures back to the climatological
99th percentile by Saturday afternoon, and remain in this ballpark
through Monday. Expect widespread highs in the 70s to low 80s once
again. This round of warmth won`t be a slam dunk record at every
single long term climate site like the last two rounds, but expect a
few daily records to be broken each day. New monthly records set
recently should remain safe.

The main concern with the return of the warmth will be the return of
fire weather concerns once again. On Saturday, gusty southerly winds
will be on the decrease over the High Plains, but the surface trough
will spread eastward and increase westerly winds over southeast
Wyoming. Widespread gusts of 30 to 45 mph are expected to lead to
critical fire weather conditions once again. For western Nebraska,
the southerly winds will be going too early, while the RH is still
high, and then the westerlies may not quite reach the area in time.
However, models show the surface trough pulling east of our coverage
area on Sunday, allowing westerly winds to spread across the entire
area for Sunday and Monday. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch was
issued for southeast Wyoming beginning Saturday and continuing
through Monday evening, while western Nebraska joins Sunday morning
through Monday evening. RH recoveries will be fairly poor overnight,
generally between 35 and 50%, so the product will run all the way
through the night. In addition to the typical gusty winds and low
humidity threat, we will unfortunately have potential for high-based
virga showers each day during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Despite the boundary layer remaining extremely dry, models are in
fairly good agreement showing much better moisture in the 300 to 700-
mb layer. We also may be looking at a vort-max passing through the
area well timed to just follow peak heating each day. Instability
looks limited, but non-zero, so there will be potential (10% at this
time) for some isolated dry lightning along with gusty and erratic
winds in the vicinity of this activity. With strong background flow
already producing synoptic winds around 30 to 45 mph, it may not
take too much to get a few gusts of 60 mph or greater, especially
around the wind prone areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Confidence is increasing in a large-scale pattern change finally
breaking the persistent record breaking warmth over the western
CONUS as we reach the last day of March and into the first few days
of April. The powerful upper level ridge will shift east into the
southeast part of the country, which will allow for a series of
Pacific troughs with access to moisture to move inland. Confidence
is high in a sustained cool down (though there may still be periods
of unusual warmth between systems), but low in the details.
Ensembles are still evenly fairly split between two potential
storm tracks. The first, which is represented by the latest
deterministic GFS and favored by more of the GEFS members, takes
most of the Pacific troughs just north of the area. In this
scenario, the mountains would still see decent chances for
accumulating snowfall, but downslope flow over the rest of the
area would limited precipitation potential. This scenario would
also be considerably windier. The second scenario is favored by
a majority of ECMWF ensemble members and could allow for one or
two Pacific troughs to track south of the area. The resulting
upslope flow would bring improved chances for appreciable (and
much needed) precipitation for the High Plains. This will
continue to be monitored over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 604 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Low clouds continue to produce MVFR conditions at several
terminals this morning. While a brief dip into IFR can`t be
ruled out, expect gradual improvements after mid-morning today.
VFR should return to most by this afternoon. Winds will turn
around to the southeast by the afternoon, and quickly become
strong at LAR. Strong southerly winds will spread into the high
plains overnight. Gusts of 30 to 40 knots are expected at LAR
and CDR, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots expected at CYS, BFF, AIA,
and SNY. We may see temporary lulls in the wind at the surface
overnight, but expect to find LLWS during these periods.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
     evening for WYZ417>423-425-427>433.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening
     for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN