Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS65 KCYS 252334
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
434 PM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warnings remain in effect for much of the CWA, but
  have been extended through, 11 AM Thursday, for the typical
  wind prone locations, as well as Central Laramie County.

- Red Flag Warnings have been issued for the Nebraska Panhandle
  and portions of southeast Wyoming from 11 AM Thursday through
  6 PM Friday.

- Critical Fire Weather conditions expected on Friday, with afternoon
  humidity values dropping into the 10-15% range with winds
  gusting upwards of 40 mph.

- Widespread precipitation chances return early next week,
  though daily probabilities remain only between about 30 and
  50%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 321 PM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

With the cold front through the CWA this afternoon, wind will begin
to gradually tone down, at least outside of the typical wind prone
areas. Eastern plains High Wind Warnings will expire early this
evening as the winds behind the front turn more northwesterly. West
of the Laramie Range, winds will be a bit slower to ease as the
front gets hung up on the terrain. High Wind Warnings for those
zones will expire later this evening. There is some precipitation
behind the front with a few embedded lightning strikes popping up as
well! Based off observations and webcams, precipitation is falling
as rain despite the 10 to 15 degree temperature drop behind the
front. Precipitation will gradually make its way south throughout
the afternoon, however it will likely decrease in coverage due to
downsloping winds drying the low to mid-level. Precipitation is
expected to stay as rain through the evening. Mountain snow will
likely also continue through the evening, however Winter Storm
Warnings will likely be able to expire on time as snowfall rates and
accumulation trend downward.

High winds will likely continue overnight for the southeast Wyoming
wind prones and Laramie County. With a 500 mb vorticity max sitting
over these areas overnight along with a 250 mb jet, winds aloft will
remain in the 60 to 70 kt range. Strong subsidence will also be
present overnight which means these winds could potentially make it
down to the surface. High Wind Warnings for the wind prones were
extended through Thursday morning with the previous forecast package.

High winds in the wind prones will ease briefly during the day
Thursday as the upper-level jet finally slides south and weakens.
Despite there being a break in the high winds, much of the forecast
area will still experience breezy to windy conditions. This poses a
fire weather risk, especially for areas east of the Laramie Range
and into the Nebraska panhandle. Westerly winds will dry out the
surface even though some of the area saw some precipitation today.
Fire Weather Watches were upgraded to a Red Flag Warning and
expanded to include Converse and Niobrara Counties as well as the
northern Nebraska panhandle. The Red Flag Warning was also expanded
in time and will run Thursday afternoon through Friday evening.
Poor humidity recoveries Thursday night justified the extended
Red Flag Warning.

Conditions on Friday will be even warmer and drier, leading to more
critical fire weather conditions. Winds across the area will also
pick up with widespread 45 MPH gusts possible. High winds will
likely also return to the wind prone areas as the 250 mb jet returns
to to the CWA. MSLP gradients will steepen with winds aloft creeping
up to 55 kts. Strong subsidence will help get these winds down to
the surface, with high winds potentially continuing through Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

Broad ridging will remain in place over E Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle into the weekend under northwesterly flow aloft. Saturday
will still be breezy, with temperatures continuing to be well-above
seasonal values. Can expect high temperatures to reach the low to
mid-60s east of the Laramie Range, with temperatures in the 50s west
of I-25.

Our most interesting feature to discuss is currently located over
the Central Pacific Ocean which can be seen clearly on GOES-18 mid-
level water vapor imagery. This closed low and associated shortwave
trough is forecast to dig south and east across California, inducing
numerous lobes of shear-induced vorticity to be advected over our
CWA beginning on Saturday night. As this cyclonic vorticity
advection increases with height (differential cyclonic vorticity
advection), Saturday will begin our stretch for precipitation
chances mainly across western portions of the CWA. Perhaps our best
chance for meaningful moisture will be on Sunday into Sunday night.
Given increasing cloud cover and decreasing 700 mb flow (thus
decreasing the amount of downsloping and adiabatic warming), high
temperatures on Sunday should be roughly 10 degrees cooler relative
to Saturday`s high. While far from a drought-busting event, both
HREF and NBM ensemble means suggest 0.10-0.15 inches of QPF for
locations east of the Laramie Range, with higher amounts for the
Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges. Although PWAT anomalies are of +1-2
sigma over our CWA, forecast soundings east of I-25 are hinting at
some low-level dry air, so ensemble guidance QPF estimates seem
reasonable at this time.

Heading into the work week, we will continue to be situated
downstream of the aforementioned closed low over Southern
California, which will leave in small chances for precipitation
particularly over the mountain ranges/higher terrain. Monday will
likely be the coldest day of the period, despite high temperatures
still being at or slightly above climatology. With relatively weak
flow aloft through the latter part of this period, high wind
probabilities appear to be low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 434 PM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

Showers are sliding southeast across the CWA, just south of KBFF and
north of KLAR/KCYS, heading towards KSNY. Most of this activity
should stay away from KLAR and KCYS, but kept the PROB30 for
KCYS that was introduced earlier and VCSH at KLAR. Most of this
precipitation should be over around 03Z along with winds winding
down this evening. As such, LLWS is possible at KCYS from 03Z
to 10Z. Winds across the southeast Wyoming terminals will remain
breezy through this TAF period, with gusts 30 to 50 knots,
while the Nebraska terminals will see winds diminish to
generally less than 10 knots by about 04Z. However, this wont
last as winds will ramp back up for the Nebraska sites by 18Z
with gusts to around 25 knots.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 6 PM MST Friday for
     WYZ417-418-430>433.
     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ108-119.
     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for WYZ104-105-
     107-109-115.
     High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Thursday for WYZ106-110-116-
     117.
     Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ112-
     114.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ113.
     High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Thursday for WYZ118.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 6 PM MST Friday for
     NEZ434>437.
     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ019-020-
     054-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...NB/RZ