Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

103
FXUS65 KCYS 192052
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
252 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly temperatures will continue for the next several days.
  Another round of freezing temperatures is expected Wednesday
  morning in areas with snow cover, with patchy frost and fog
  elsewhere.

- Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through Wednesday night. A more widespread round of showers is
  expected Thursday into Friday.

- Above average temperatures and pleasant weather expected for
  the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

Chilly and unsettled weather will continue for the next several days
as temperatures will be slow to return back to seasonal averages.
Broad troughing will remain over the west through the end of the
work week, with a series of weak vort-maxes providing limited
precipitation potential. The cold surface high pressure system is
located over the central and northern plains, keeping fairly light
winds and cold temperatures over the area today. Visible satellite
imagery shows plentiful snow cover lingering over portions of
Carbon, Albany, and Converse counties. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave
located over eastern Utah is supporting modest isentropic lift just
to our south. This lift will very slowly creep north and eastward
overnight and into Wednesday morning, which will support some
isolated light shower activity through the period. This afternoon,
expect this to be mainly in Albany and Laramie counties, but this
will spread north and east overnight and into Wednesday morning. A
few rumbles of thunder will be possible. As the mid-level lift
pushes into our area, the surface high will retreat to the east,
initiating southerly winds over much of the High Plains tonight.
With moisture remaining quite elevated, we will need to watch for
some fog tonight. Along and east of the Laramie Range, this will be
upslope fog, whereas areas further west can expect some patchy
radiation fog thanks to clearing skies, lingering moisture, and snow
cover. Carbon, Albany, and Converse counties are more likely to
remain clear overnight, and with the snow cover and light winds,
another cold night is anticipated. Rawlins not only obliterated
their daily record low this morning by dropping to 8F, but they also
broke the previous monthly record low for May! Tonight will not be
quite as cold, but a daily record low is still forecast for Rawlins
again. Existing Freeze Watches were upgraded to a Freeze Warning for
these areas. In addition, a Frost Advisory was spread one row of
zones eastward. Current thinking is that further east, there will be
enough cloud cover to prevent widespread frost issues, but the cloud
deck edge main remain east of Platte and Niobrara counties. If
clouds remain more limited than anticipated, frost could spread
eastward, which will be monitored this evening.

Wednesday will remain cool relative to seasonal averages with plenty
of cloud cover, especially east of the Laramie Range. Drier air will
start to move into our western zones, which will set up a dry-line /
wind shift boundary somewhere in between the Laramie Range and the
Wyoming/Nebraska state line. Some limited instability will setup
along this boundary. While forcing looks quite limited, we may
manage to kick off an isolated storm or two. PoPs generally remain
between 20 and 40%. With moisture remaining elevated over the High
Plains, we`ll be looking at another chance for some fog and low
clouds Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Frost and freeze
concerns will be more limited, mainly in Converse, Carbon, and
Albany counties, though increasing cloud cover will keep
temperatures warmer than the preceding few nights.

By Thursday, a more potent upper level low will dive down from
Canada across the northern Rockies. This will be slow moving,
pushing a few showers into our western zones during the morning
hours. The dryline and wind shift boundary should remain in place
into Thursday but it may be a little more diffuse. The main forcing
with the upper level trough and strong isentropic lift looks to be
fairly well timed with daytime heating, arriving in the early to mid
afternoon hours. Expect numerous showers with isolated to scattered
embedded thunderstorms to expand in coverage through the afternoon
hours and into the evening. Instability looks relatively
unimpressive, around the 400 to 800 J/kg range, but a few stronger
storms cannot be ruled out. Coverage of rainfall should be fairly
good with this event. Most of the area has a 60% or greater chance
for wetting rainfall (0.1" or more). For once, the higher
probabilities are actually located in the Nebraska panhandle thanks
to the instability and ample low-level moisture present. Shower
activity will likely continue well into the night, and possibly
even into Friday morning before the potent upper level low
clears to the east and brings precipitation to an end. PoPs are
fairly aggressive now, around 60 to 80% for most of the area,
but this was toned down slightly from the NBM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

The long term should be a mostly quiet weather period with some
initial precipitation on Friday leading to warm and dry
conditions by the weekend. Friday starts on the backside of a
quick moving clipper system that will see widespread shower and
some thunderstorm chances across the CWA. Thankfully this
activity will be mostly passing in nature with limited
instability and support for stronger activity, and by peak
heating later in the day the best forcing should be far enough
east that activity will be lessening to dissipating across the
region.

Into the weekend and early next week the upper levels will see a
weak ridge of high pressure take control that will keep us
mostly clear and increase temperatures. While some passing
showers may be possible, it will be mostly relegated to the
high terrain from orographic flow as stronger systems and
better moisture are not expected until beyond the long term.
Otherwise this will lead to the return of warmer conditions,
with spring like temperatures in the 50`s to 60`s on Friday
giving way to 70`s and 80`s by Sunday and Monday, with a chance
for our eastern zones possibly peaking into the 90`s on Monday.
With the increasing warmth comes decreasing moisture, and
enhanced fire weather concerns may return for the Nebraska
Panhandle Sunday and Monday as moisture has not been notable
enough to produce significant greenup as of this writing. While
winds are currently expected to remain too weak to produce
critical fire weather concerns, the dry nature of the region
will still be conducive of problematic control problems if new
fires do start up.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026

KRWL is currently experiencing IFR to LIFR conditions due to
localized fog, but this should begin to clear out over the next
hour or two. Thereafter, expecting light winds and VFR
conditions all sites through the early night hours.
Precipitation may begin to move into KCYS beginning around 22Z
and continue into the nighttime hours through around 04Z, with
light precipitation then possible for all Nebraska Panhandle
sites except KBFF as it appears to be just outside of possible
rain. This precipitation will bring lowered CIGs and VIS, which
could produce MVFR to IFR conditions for all sites impacted.
Winds will also begin to increase, becoming breezy starting
around 12Z primarily for Nebraska sites. Finally, fog may be
possible again for KRWL tomorrow morning, as well as KLAR and
KCYS. Have introduced VCFG for KRWL, along with lowered decks
and some BR for KCYS, with higher uncertainty for KLAR and have
kept it out of this TAF for now.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for
     WYZ102-106-107-117.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for
     WYZ101-115.
     Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Wednesday
     for WYZ104-105-109>111-113-116.
NE...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for
     NEZ095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG