Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

157
FXUS65 KCYS 221811
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1211 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and storms are expected over the next
  several days. Monsoon moisture will lead to heavy rain with
  the potential for flash flooding. Isolated severe storms will
  also be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 204 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Showers and storms continue early this morning, but radar trends
show decreasing coverage and intensity of storms. Any shower
activity will likely be done by sunrise so that the atmosphere can
once again prime itself for another round of showers and storms
Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will quickly warm during the
morning hours, allowing instability to build across the area. Model
soundings look a bit more promising today for heavy rainfall and
even an isolated severe thunderstorm or two. PWATs will rise into
the 99th percentile for much of the CWA as south to southwest flow
continues to drive monsoon moisture into southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska. Cloud layer winds are rather slow across Wyoming,
so heavy rain and flooding potential will remain the primary
threats in any storms on Wednesday. Storms will move faster
across Nebraska, however, with PWATs approaching almost 1.50
inches, flash flooding will still be the biggest concern. There
is some decent instability across the panhandle, so cannot rule
out an isolated severe storm with either strong gusty winds, or
brief large hail. Hi-Res guidance shows storms continuing
through about midnight, with some lingering showers possible
after that.

Thursday will basically be a repeat of Wednesday, albeit with
better parameters. PWATs will reach NAEFS climatological max
with cloud layer winds roughly the same as Wednesday. This
likely means an even greater potential for heavy rains and
flash flooding. Instability will also be about the same,
especially across the Nebraska panhandle, so an isolated severe
storm or two could be possible. Hi- Res guidance shows a little
less coverage of storms across the area, with precipitation
once again continuing into the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Friday...Will see an abrupt cutoff to the low and mid level moisture
supply as drier air at low and mid levels advects into our counties
as the dominant ridge over Colorado and southern Wyoming reasserts
itself. Thus dry and hotter.

Saturday through Tuesday...Isolated to scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms expected, with areal coverage
increasing each day due to increased mid level moisture.
Fortunately, more beneficial rains expected concentrated over and
near our Snowy, Sierra Madre and Laramie Ranges, with the best
chances for convection on Monday and Tuesday. Typical weak northwest
flow aloft on the northeast periphery of the ridge aloft will aid in
occasional passing shortwave troughs aloft near peak heating
resulting in increasing convective potential each day

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

An active convective afternoon and overnight are expected as a
moist and unstable airmass and moist low level upslope combine
to produce numerous to widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms across southeast Wyoming, with scattered evening
showers and thunderstorms across the Nebraska Panhandle. Another
shortwave trough aloft will affect southeast Wyoming late
tonight, which will likely produce additional showers and
thunderstorms that may affect Carbon County and KRWL towards
daybreak, and Converse and Niobrara Counties after daybreak
Thursday.

Wyoming TAFS...Numerous to widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms will affect KLAR and KCYS from mid afternoon
through late evening, producing erratic winds and gusts to 45
knots from the strongest storms, along with occasional MVFR.
Lesser coverage at Rawlins, though still confident enough based
on the NAM and HRRR to include PROB30 from mid afternoon through
early evening, with some gusts to 40 knots and brief MVFR. Due
to moist low levels, will likely see MVFR ceilings and
visibilities in fog and low clouds late tonight until shortly
after daybreak Thursday. Typical gusty gradient winds until
sunset.

Nebraska TAFS...Isolated to scattered showers and some
thunderstorms will affect the terminals from mid afternoon
through early evening, with the most areal coverage at
Scottsbluff and Sidney, where confidence is high enough to
include PROB30 and TEMPO at Scotsbluff and Sidney, respectively.
Lesser coverage of storms at Chadron and Alliance, where belief
is that VCTS will suffice during the evening hours. The
strongest thunderstorms will produce wind gusts to 40 knots
along with occasional MVFR at Scottsbluff and SIdney. Moist low
levels will likely produce MVFR ceilings and visibilities in fog
and low clouds at Sidney after midnight until near daybreak.
Typical gusty winds of 25 to 35 knots expected until sunset.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for WYZ101>111-113-
     115>119.
NE...Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through Thursday
     evening for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN