Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

044
FXUS65 KCYS 130802
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
202 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warnings continue for areas east of the Laramie Range
  through this afternoon due to gusty winds and dry conditions.

- High Wind Watches remain in effect for the Arlington area and
  South Laramie Range into this afternoon.

- Precipitation chances increase Tuesday through the end of the
  week with the threat of thunderstorms and snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Enjoy those mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures for the
daytime hours today because changes are in store Monday night into
Tuesday, more on that in a bit. Rinse and repeat, fire weather
concerns continue into this afternoon as conditions remain very dry
along with gusty winds. A shortwave that slid across the CWA tonight
may kick start high winds over the next several hours and persist
through 3pm this afternoon for the Arlington and South Laramie Range
zones. Dynamics are meager at best, but there is enough of a signal
to keep the High Wind Watch out that was issued yesterday for said
zones. Winds at 700mb ramp up to around 50 knots through the morning
hours, and with enough subsidence aloft, per GFS, these winds may
mix down to the surface. In-house guidance indicates a 60 percent
chance of high winds, with the peak of high winds later this morning
for the areas of concern, mentioned earlier, along I-80.

Switching gears to the ongoing fire weather concerns. Southwest flow
aloft and a lee-side trough, east of the Laramie Range, will keep
winds gusty into the Nebraska Panhandle. This along with an
abundance of dry fuels has influenced the SPC to introduce an area
of critical fire weather concerns across eastern Wyoming into the
Nebraska Panhandle through this afternoon. This area aligns nicely
where west to southwest winds 15 to 20 mph, gusting up to 35 mph,
will occur along with min RH values dipping down to 8-12 percent.
Therefore, the Red Flag Warning that is out will continue through
8pm this afternoon. Locations west of the Laramie Range will escape
the fire weather threat as isolated showers are possible for most of
today, which is depicted nicely by hi-res guidance. Another
shortwave will rotate in over western portions of the CWA, this will
keep chances of showers in the forecast, snow at higher elevation
(above 7K feet), Monday night through Tuesday.

Speaking of Tuesday, a 500mb trough and vort max will slide in
and cross the region through the day, this will spread
precipitation chances east into the lower elevations,
encompassing most of the CWA. This shows up nicely on the hi-res
model suite, with precipitation chances along the I-80 corridor
initially and spreading east/northeastward throughout the day.
Ensembles show at least a 60 percent chance of a tenth of
liquid, which will be a welcomed sign as our CWA has been
extremely dry this season. Just like with the precipitation
Monday night, the higher terrain may see a few inches of late
season snow, not reaching advisory criteria at the moment.
Temperatures will be a tad cooler with highs in the 50s west of
I-25 and mid 50s/60s east of the corridor. Regarding winds, what
winds you`ll be saying, as winds for Tuesday/Tuesday night will
remain relatively calm.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The period begins with a departing shortwave trough and building of
a weak mid-level ridge downstream of a more amplified trough, which
will be the culprit of more active weather later in the week and
into the weekend. As a result, mild temperatures will remain in
place on both Wednesday and Thursday, followed by an increase
in our winds as quasi-zonal 700 mb flow ramps up to 35-40 knots.
In-house guidance has 30-40% probabilities of high wind
conditions for the usual wind-prone areas starting Wednesday
morning before tapering off Thursday night into Friday. While
not as impressive as what we have seen in recent, previous
events, omega fields continue to show a mountain wave pattern
across the Snowy and Laramie Ranges, so will see an increase in
our winds during this time at the very least. Ensemble guidance
suggests that temperatures will peak in the low to mid-50s west
of the Laramie Range, and in the 60s to perhaps 70 degrees east
of the I-25 corridor. Thursday is forecast to be our warmest day
of the period under warm advection ahead of an advancing cold
front that will move across Southern Wyoming and Western
Nebraska overnight Thursday into Friday. However if the front
and associated surface low trends more progressive, we likely
won`t warm up as much on Thursday as ensembles are currently
showing, as much of our Nebraska counties are showing 50th
percentile maximum temperatures in the mid 70s.

Friday will feature much cooler temperatures behind the front, with
temperatures dropping a good 20-25 degrees relative to Thursday
given strong low-level cold air advection in combination with
blustery NNW surface flow. As for any beneficial moisture...don`t
get your hopes up. Current LREF PWAT percentiles are at or below the
50th percentile for Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska
through Friday with ensemble mean QPF at or less than 0.1". The only
exception are the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges where probabilities
of exceeding 0.2" of QPF through Saturday afternoon look to be about
60%. Saturday will again feature below-average temperatures
primarily in the 30s and 40s which is running around 15-20 degrees
below climatological values. Expect temperatures on Sunday to
rebound nicely to at or slightly above seasonal values as a weak mid-
level ridge will build in from the west. Dry conditions are expected
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A series of Pacific disturbances will impact the region today with
gradual increasing cloudiness and windy conditions by late Monday
morning. Although most terminals will remain dry, a few rain/snow
showers may move into southern Wyoming late this evening after 03z.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will continue over the next
24 hours with intervals of mid to high clouds and windy conditions
for all terminals between 12z Monday and 02z Tuesday. West to
southwest winds will gust between 35 to 45 knots for the southeast
Wyoming terminals, and 30 to 40 knots for western Nebraska. Winds
will diminish between 00z and 02z. Low end chance of precipitation
at KRWL after sunset, so will mention a PROB30 for MVFR conditions
for now.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417>419-
     430>433.
     High Wind Watch through this afternoon for WYZ110-116.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...TJT