Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

429
FXUS65 KCYS 072324
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
424 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A multi-day Red Flag Warning has been issued for the western
  Nebraska Panhandle and portions of southeast Wyoming through
  5PM Monday. Very dry conditions and gusty winds will combine
  to produce critical fire weather conditions in these areas,
  with relatively poor overnight humidity recoveries.

- High winds look to return to the region as early as Monday,
  with very strong gusts likely.

- Progressive pattern expected through the week, with model
  uncertainty rising late in the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 214 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Mostly benign, dry weather expected over the next few days as a
transitional pattern develops aloft and a diffuse upper-leve ridge
attempts to nose into the region. Primary forecast concerns over the
next several days will be critical fire weather conditions east of
the Laramie Range, along with a potential high wind event on Monday.

For Sunday, winds will start decreasing a bit as 700mb gradients
weaken and downward omega values taper off. A 40 to 45kt jet will be
in place Sunday morning and afternoon and with the modest downward
omega values also in place, breezy conditions are expected. High
winds are not anticipated at this time due to a lack of support for
the 700mb jet. After a day of dry, downsloping today (Saturday) and
continued modest downsloping on Sunday, very dry conditions will
continue with afternoon minimum relative humidity values dropping
into the 15 to 20% once again. While winds are expected to be more
on the lighter side, the dry conditions and poor overnight
recoveries into Monday morning, critical fire weather conditions
still remain likely for the next several days. With afternoon
temperatures in the low- to mid-60s east of the Laramie Range,
condition will be supportive of rapid fire development and spread.

Similar to Sunday, Monday will bring another round of critical fire
weather conditions, likely being the worst day. Overnight recoveries
Sunday night into Monday morning will struggle into the 30s and 40s,
with afternoon humidity values on Monday dropping back into the 13
to 17% range. Zonal flow throughout the atmosphere on Monday will
lead to very strong winds as 700mb gradients strengthen across the
Laramie Range due to a low moving across southern Canada. With
westerly winds expected, the atmosphere will be primed for another
downslope wind event, leading to even drier conditions east of the
Laramie Range. A 65 to 70kt 700mb jet looks to develop Monday
morning, aiding in stronger downslope drying and weaker overnight
humidity recoveries. Surface pressure gradients will be around 3 to
5mb along the Laramie Range, combined with a 70kt 700mb jet, and
very strong downward omega values, high winds look increasing likely
on Monday. Given the very strong winds, very dry conditions, poor
overnight humidity recoveries, and lack of precipitation, the Red
Flag Warning has been extended through 5PM Monday for all Nebraska
fire zones and many zones east of the Laramie Range in southeast
Wyoming.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Long term is a messy forecast period that starts with good model
agreement, but by the end of the period falls apart under a
progressive pattern that should see at least a few chances at
precipitation, albeit more rain or a mix into snow as
temperatures remain above normal. Monday begins as a the jet
sets in over the region for the day alongside a passing
shortwave. For winds, pressure gradients have continued to rise
across the region, while 700mb forecast winds are promoting a
70+ knot jet with a favorable and impressive downward forcing
component. In house guidance also favors high winds for our
wind prone locations, with probabilities up to 60-70%, leading
to highlights becoming likely for at least our usual locations.
Moisture begins to increase as this system moves across, and
while forcing won`t be the best and downsloping does produce a
drier near surface layer moving further east of the mountains,
guidance is beginning to favor at least some scattered
precipitation extending into Tuesday with highest probabilities
for the mountains and intermountain region. Finally Monday
should be our last day of significantly warmer than average
highs, with 50`s to upper 60`s still possible for the day.

While temperatures will then drop moving into the middle and
end of the work week, without a strong cold airmass in the
region, we`ll only see conditions drop back to several degrees
above normal, with another chance at 40`s to 50`s on Wednesday
in between passing systems. Analysis of models and their
ensembles show some agreement remaining through Wednesday and
Thursday as the transient ridge passes across with a Pacific
trough moving into the southwestern US, but by Friday guidance
falls off the rails again and ensembles are unsure on how to
resolve the multiple features we`ll see influencing the forecast
area. For now, expectation is that we`ll have our quick cool
down with a brief rise again on Wednesday, but moving into the
end of the week it becomes a bit more uncertain on how much of a
second cool down we`ll see as the NBM shows anywhere from near
normal to 10 degrees above for the region, and how these systems
evolve also affects our precipitation chances. Nonetheless, it
appears that the strong ridging that we`ve been seeing for the
past several weeks may finally be on the decline, hopefully
allowing us to catch up on precipitation and, for those who
enjoy it, more winter-like conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 424 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

No aviation weather concerns across all terminals for this TAF
period as VFR conditions continue. Winds may pose the only real
threat, as the southeast Wyoming terminals will see winds ramp
up by 17Z Sunday with gusts to 35 knots. While the Nebraska
terminals, except KCDR, will also see gusty winds build by 19Z
Sunday, not as strong, to 25 knots. Otherwise, in the meantime,
expect the gusty winds that have been plaguing all terminals
today to diminish by 02Z this afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for WYZ430>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RZ