Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

145
FXUS65 KCYS 062338
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
538 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect until 8 PM tonight for gusty
  winds and low humidity for much of Southeast Wyoming.

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM Friday for
  portions of southeast Wyoming west of Interstate 25, including
  much of Carbon and Albany Counties for gusty winds and low
  humidity.

- Hot temperatures return Friday through Sunday with slightly
  cooler temperatures Monday through next Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 332 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Tonight...Main challenges tonight will be the possibility of
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms through early evening
across our far eastern counties roughly east of a line from Chadron
to Sidney. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has a
small sliver of marginal risk for severe thunderstorms through this
evening, which seems quite plausible based on the positioning of the
north to south oriented 850/700 mb theta-e ridge axis and some
decent low level convergence. Satellite imagery on the visible range
shows little if any cumulus development in our far eastern counties.
Looking at SPC mesoanalysis, there is adequate CAPE and minimal CIN,
thus feel it would be prudent to include a small chance of
thunderstorms through early evening for the aforementioned area.

The current Red Flag Warning is on track through 8 PM and winds have
been overperforming per observations and thus will continue the
product as is.

The low relative humidities will allow for another pleasant sleeping
night for having the windows open with minima in the 40s over the
mountains and 50s at lower elevations.

One interesting feature is that a weak surface trough or weak cold
front will nudge southward into our northern and eastern counties
late tonight with only a wind direction switch and no other sensible
weather effects.

Friday...Primary challenge again will be likely Red Flag Conditions
for much of Carbon and Albany Counties. No doubt the humidities will
be bone dry once again, and with the projected 700 mb winds, near
10,000 feet MSL, mixing down to the surface and gradient winds,
coordination amongst our daytime forecast team here at team Cheyenne
led us to issue a Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM for much of
Carbon and Albany Counties.

While northwest flow aloft continues, a cold frontal boundary will
lie across our eastern third of counties, providing some minor
cooling compared to today for the Nebraska Panhandle, while on the
warm side of the front further to the west, we anticipate a slow
warming trend. Fortunately, relative humidities will be quite low,
making the apparent temperatures or heat index numbers quite
reasonable despite maximum temperatures in the 90s.

Friday night...Another quiescent overnight under northwest flow
aloft and with the airmass moderating, minimum temperatures will not
be as cool as tonight, with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 332 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The highlight of the long term forecast period will be a slow
transition back out of the hot and dry weather pattern back into
more seasonal temperatures and occasional rainfall chances. Another
weekend heat wave is on tap for Saturday and Sunday. For the fifth
consecutive weekend, a broad upper level ridge aloft will support
above average temperatures across our area. 700-mb temperatures
around +16C to +20C are not quite as extreme as the last two weekend
heatwaves, but still sufficiently high for continued near record
heat. Expect highs both days in the lower 90s for Laramie, Rawlins,
and Saratoga, and then mid 90s to lower 100s over the High Plains.
Currently, record highs are only forecast at Laramie and Cheyenne,
but all locations will be within 1 to 3 degrees of daily record
highs. This heat wave does not look as likely to challenge all-time
or monthly records, but we will certainly be hot. The chance for
storms looks very limited on Saturday, but we will finally start to
see precipitable water return to near average on Sunday. The upper
level ridge will start to weaken and slowly nudge eastward, allowing
monsoon moisture to fill to the north once again. We may see a few
showers or thunderstorms creeping into our southern mountains by
Sunday, but this will probably still be quite limited. While the
probability for rainfall will be low, forecast soundings favorable
for dry microbursts, so gusty winds may be the initial concern as
moisture tries to return to the area.

Ensembles show precipitable water continuing to gradually improve
through the week ahead as monsoon moisture expands to the north once
again. Coverage will probably be fairly limited early in the week,
but look for higher chances for precipitation towards the middle to
later part of the work week. While we are still a ways out for
details, this doesn`t really look like a pure monsoon pattern. A few
intrusions of shortwave troughs to our north may keep vertical wind
shear high enough to get a few strong to severe thunderstorms. As
moisture mixes through the boundary layer, we should also ease the
fire weather concerns as humidity climbs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period. While a
rogue shower/storm cannot be ruled out around AIA or SNY, the
probability is too low to add to the TAF. Otherwise, wind gusts
should ease in the next few hours. The direction may become
variable overnight at times. A weak boundary pushing through the
plains will turn winds to the northeast, and then southeast
during the day Friday. Look for gusty west to northwest winds
again at LAR and RWL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417>430.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for WYZ420>422-
     425>427.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN