Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

200
FXUS65 KCYS 282041
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
241 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances are expected through the weekend.
  Strong to severe wind gusts will be possible, with moderate to
  heavy rain likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

An active afternoon is expected with showers already showing up on
radar early this afternoon. Coverage of showers will increase as the
day progresses and the shortwave moving through the ridge enters
Wyoming. Storms are not likely to be severe given a lack of strong
instability and shear. However, given the dry low-levels from hot
temperatures under the ridge, model soundings show profound inverted-
V profiles. DCAPE values are over 1000 J/kg, so strong to severe
wind gusts will be possible in any shower and storms this afternoon
and evening. Cannot rule out some marginally severe hail in the
Nebraska panhandle later today as there could be some pockets of
higher instability due to ample sunshine. For the most part, showers
and storms will be more of a nuisance than anything. Showers will
dwindle this evening, but could linger into the overnight hours.

Saturday looks like another active day with models showing multiple
waves of precipitation moving through the forecast area and good
coverage of storms. A stronger push of monsoon moisture will arrive
Saturday as the ridge axis shifts further eastward into the center
of the country. The environment looks similar to Friday, with
soundings showing little shear and instability. Inverted-V profiles
are still present with elevated DCAPE values, so strong to severe
wind gusts will still be the primary threat in any showers and
storms. Hi-Res guidance shows the first and stronger wave of storms
moving into the CWA during the afternoon hours. The second wave will
be later in the evening and be more stratiform in nature. Moderate
to heavy rain can also be expected with the monsoon push, although
PWAT values are nothing abnormal for this time of year according to
NAEFS. Most shower activity will die down before midnight.

More of the same can be expected for Sunday with the ridge axis
still in the center of the country. Instability and shear remain
roughly the same, with model soundings continuing to show mostly
inverted-V profiles. As a result, Sunday will likely be similar to
Saturday, with storm chances possible during the afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

A fairly stagnant synoptic weather pattern will last through much of
next week. Looking at the big picture, ensembles are in strong
agreement showing the upper level ridge migrating eastward, and
setting up over the southern Plains or southeastern US for much of
next week. A series of fairly potent upper level lows will move into
the West Coast throughout the period as well. That leaves our area
under steady southwest flow for much of the week.

Beginning on Monday, model guidance depicts a notable shortwave
trough ejecting to the northeast out of the monsoon region. This
will be accompanied by a surge in moisture which should support
another round of scattered PM showers and thunderstorms. An early
look at the overall setup suggests a typical monsoonal thunderstorm
pattern with good forcing, but unimpressive instability. PoPs are
currently around 30 to 50%, generally the scattered category, with
locally heavy rainfall possible due to precipitable water remaining
quite high. The limited instability presents a failure mode though.
Several ECMWF ensemble members show heavy rainfall failing to make
it far enough north to reach our area, likely due to the lack of
instability, while GEFS members as a whole are more aggressive on
thunderstorm coverage. Monday also looks like the coolest day of the
week, with highs generally near seasonal averages.

Beyond Monday, precipitation chances look more limited but will not
disappear entirely. Precipitable water looks to remain elevated for
most of the week with the stubborn upper level pattern continuing to
bring in a good fetch of monsoon moisture. Expect at least isolated
PM showers and thunderstorms every day, but coverage should be more
limited than the more potent monsoon surge over the weekend. PoPs
remain generally in the 10 to 20% range each day of the upcoming
work week. While the core of the upper level ridge will remain
southeast of our area, expect a slow warming trend through the week,
with highs generally around 5 degrees above seasonal averages.
Southwest flow aloft will also support regular breezy to windy
conditions in the typical areas of Carbon, Albany, and Converse
counties, leading to continued elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Gusty showers and thunderstorms are the primary aviation concern
today. Abundant moisture moving in aloft will lead to scattered
showers across the area. Multiple rounds are possible during the
afternoon and evening hours, possibly continuing after midnight
in Wyoming too. However, most thunder should be in the afternoon
and early evening hours with showers favored after. PROB30
groups were introduced at most terminals to account for the
possibility of strong, gusty winds. Confidence is lower in these
storms being able to produce rainfall heavy enough to reduce the
flight category, but brief MVFR to IFR will be possible in
locally heavy downpours.

Otherwise, expect breezy westerlies gusting 20 to 30 knots in
Wyoming today. This may continue overnight, particularly at RWL,
while other terminals can expect lighter winds (outside of the
gusty showers). Winds will pick up at all terminals mid
Saturday morning with gusts of 25 to 35 knots in Wyoming and 20
to 25 knots in Nebraska.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN