Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

123
FXUS65 KCYS 012239
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
439 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the end
  of the work week.

- Afternoon and evening storms will be possible most days
  through the end of the week. A few strong to severe storms
  will be possible.

- Somewhat cooler, though comfortable, temperatures will occur
  for our bisesquicentennial, the 250th anniversary of our
  country on Independence Day, then a slow warming trend
  develops again for Sunday through Tuesday.

- Adequate moisture in the low and mid levels will help produce
  isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
  each day from Saturday through Tuesday, primarily in the deeper
  moisture east of Interstate 25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Over the next several days we`ll see a very similar pattern
daily as evening thunderstorms, mostly for our Nebraska
Panhandle zones and possibly our northern zones, will be
possible, alongside a marginal risk at a storm or two becoming
strong to severe, but otherwise warm and dry bringing elevated
fire weather concerns.

The overall weather pattern should look largely similar each
day, with ridging deepening across the Southeast US, and
troughing over the Western US with a daily shortwave riding
between these features. This consistent pattern should give us
similar weather conditions through the end of the week, as highs
on Thursday increase around 3-5 degrees with 80`s west of the
Laramie Range and 80`s to 90`s to the east. While generally dry
conditons will be present as RH values mostly sit in the teens,
our far eastern counties in the Nebraska Panhandle should see
some moisture thanks to southerly to southeasterly flow, but it
will be marginal overall with daytime RH values still down into
the low to mid 20`s. This moisture alongside the daily
shortwaves will fuel thunderstorm chances, mostly in the
Panhandle, though our northern zones in east-central Wyoming
could also see some grazing showers or storms.

Each round of storms does present a marginal risk of strong to
severe activity with hail and/or winds the primary hazards.
A quick increase in shear this evening may help to fuel storms,
but instability will be meager, though high resolution guidance
has been indicating a stronger storm or two forming along the
I-80 corridor near Sidney. Into Thursday we should see
instability increase with around 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE present,
but shear will wane meaning storms may struggle to remain
sustained or could be pulsing in nature. Friday the best
instability should shift eastwards just outside of the area, but
the nocturnal jet kicking up may help to sustain any storms
that can pop up.

Finally, the aforementioned dry conditions will keep our fire
weather conditions elevated, but thankfully surface winds are
not expected to be quite strong enough to fuel critical status.
The one exception could be our western zones, but as of today
fuels remain in the green based on partner feedback. This likely
won`t be lasting much longer however with no precipitation
expected anytime soon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Independence Day...The flow aloft remains westerly, and with decent
moisture in the 850-500 mb layer, and individual layers, combined
with low level convergence east of I-25, we anticipate seeing
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
east of I-25 in the afternoon, and over western Nebraska in the
evening. All in all, the 250th anniversary of our country should see
quite pleasant weather conditions across southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska, with minimal late day showers and thunderstorms,
near perfect for outdoor activities. Somewhat cooler for the holiday
due to more cloud cover and in a post cold frontal airmass, with
maximum temperatures in the 80s, near perfect for the
bisesquicentennial, 250th anniversary of our country`s birth. A
decent 850/700 mb theta-e ridge axis will extend across western
Nebraska, so there is a possibility of isolated strong thunderstorms
across the southern Nebraska Panhandle where CAPES of 2000 to 3000
J/kg will occur, though 0 to 6 km bulk shear values near 25 knots
will somewhat mitigate the storms severity.

Evening temperatures will be quite pleasant on Independence Day with
readings

Sunday...With warm temperatures aloft, the CIN, convective
inhibition, will increase markedly with 700 mb temperatures near 17
Celsius, limiting convective potential, and allowing for at best,
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
along and east of I-25. Another warming trend begins based on 700 mb
temperature trends.

Monday-Wednesday...Similar synoptic pattern to Sunday, with decent
southerly low level moisture advecting northward into our counties,
especially east of I-25, though warm temperature aloft will produce
enough convective inhibition, CIN, to limit afternoon and evening
thunderstorms to isolated to widely scattered coverage. Temperatures
will continue their warming trend based on 700 mb temperatures and
the paucity, limited amount, of cloud cover. Slightly cooler on
Wednesday due to an increase in mid and high level cloudiness.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 427 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Southwest flow aloft will continue, while a weather
perturbation, also known as a shortwave trough aloft, passes by
the terminals late this evening and to northern Nebraska by
daybreak Thursday. The shortwave trough will combine with a low
level convergence axis to produce isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms late this evening across far southeast
Wyoming, and over the central and southern Nebraska Panhandle
from 07Z to 12Z late tonight, with clearing skies commencing
thereafter.

HRRR model has been quite consistent in showing
thunderstorms erupting from 07Z over the southern Nebraska
panhandle, and then propagating northeastward across the central
Nebraska Panhandle through 12Z Thursday. Confidence is high
enough in this model solution to go with TEMPO grouping at
Alliance and Sidney, with PROB30 at Scottsbluff, and VCTS at
Chadron.

Nebraska TAFS...High confidence in VFR prevailing at Chadron,
Alliance and Scottsbluff through the period, with the same at
Sidney, except for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms from 07Z to 12Z, with moderate confidence in
thunderstorms producing wind gusts to 35 knots with MVFR
visibilities and low VFR ceilings at Sidney. Improving
conditions thereafter after 12Z. A developing low level jet
will aid in boosting south winds at Alliance and Chadron to 18
mph gusting to 30 mph from 06Z to 14Z.

Wyoming TAFS...High confidence in VFR. Wind gusts from 25 to 28
knots at the terminals after 14Z Thursday. Moderate confidence
in MVFR ceilings and visibilities in fog occurring at the
Cheyenne site from 09Z to 14Z, with clearing skies thereafter.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN