Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

228
FXUS65 KCYS 011134
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
534 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue for the week
  ahead with warm and dry weather.

- Afternoon and evening storms will be possible most days
  through the end of the week. A few strong to severe storms
  will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

With a shortwave moving out of the area, dry and warm air will move
in behind it and settle across the region. 700 mb temperatures will
climb into the low teens with mid-level relative humidity falling to
about 30 percent. The dry air will lead to a sunny day across the
area, with highs around average for this time of year. Hi-Res
guidance does show the potential for a few high terrain gusty
showers developing late in the afternoon. Given the dry surface,
little to no precipitation will make it to the ground, but also
cannot rule out a severe wind gust with DCAPE values around 1000
J/kg. As the evening progresses, instability will build with a weak
disturbance passing aloft. GFS soundings show decent CAPE values
around midnight in the southern Nebraska panhandle. Hi-Res guidance
agrees with this, showing some nocturnal convection developing
around midnight and continuing to move through the panhandle
through the early morning hours. Severe storms are not likely
given the parameters on model soundings, but a few strong storms
could be possible.

Similar weather conditions are possible for Thursday, albeit a few
degrees hotter. Most models still show mostly sunny skies throughout
much of the day, with the potential for gusty showers during
the afternoon. Model soundings do show moderate amounts of
instability in the Nebraska panhandle during the afternoon. With
MUCAPE values around 2000 J/kg, large hail could be possible.
DCAPE values are also around 1500 J/kg leading to a severe wind
threat as well. Most Hi-Res guidance currently keeps most of the
storms outside of the CWA. This is likely due to the weakly
sheared environment. However, if storms do form Thursday in the
Nebraska panhandle, they will have the potential to be severe.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Friday...Although another weak perturbation, or shortwave trough,
will lie across western Nebraska in the late afternoon, with
adequate low and mid level moisture, the 850/700 mb theta-e ridge
axis will be a bit further east compared to Thursday, though we will
need to watch for decent low level convergence across the eastern
row of counties in the Nebraska Panhandle for isolated strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms. With less cloud cover compared to
Thursday, the warming trend will continue.

Independence Day...The flow aloft remains westerly, and with decent
moisture in the 850-500 mb layer, and individual layers, combined
with low level convergence east of I-25, we anticipate seeing
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
east of I-25 in the afternoon, and over western Nebraska in the
evening. All in all, the 250th anniversary of our country should see
quite pleasant weather conditions across southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska, with minimal late day showers and thunderstorms,
near perfect for outdoor activities. Somewhat cooler for the holiday
due to more cloud cover and in a post cold frontal airmass, with
maximum temperatures in the 80s, near perfect for the
bisesquicentennial, 250th anniversary of our country`s birth.

Sunday...With warm temperatures aloft, the CIN, convective
inhibition, will increase markedly with 700 mb temperatures near 18
Celsius, limiting convective potential, and allowing for at best,
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
along and east of I-25. Another warming trend begins based on
700 mb temperature trends.

Monday and Tuesday...Similar synoptic pattern to Sunday, with decent
southerly low level moisture advecting northward into our counties,
especially east of I-25, though warm temperature aloft will produce
enough convective inhibition, CIN, to limit afternoon and evening
thunderstorms to isolated to widely scattered. Temperatures will
continue their warming trend based on 700 mb temperatures and the
paucity, limited amount, of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Minimal aviation impacts are expected during the day with
mostly sunny skies and relatively light winds. Smoke will likely
be seen aloft throughout the day, but should not cause
significant visibility reductions at terminals. Heading into the
overnight hours, scattered storms will be possible at western
Nebraska terminals that could cause impacts.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...SF