Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

581
FXUS65 KCYS 061150
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
545 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue
  through the work week.

- A pattern change is increasingly likely beginning around
  Sunday into early next week, but the details remain uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

All models in good agreement through the middle of the week
showing the upper level ridge axis gradually flattening out
through Wednesday. This is expected to be a slow process with
the lack of upstream Pacific disturbances influencing the
mid to upper levels, but expect high temperatures not quite as
warm as Monday with a slow cooling trend (if you can really call
it that) by the end of the week. A shallow backdoor cool front
on Wednesday will help in cooling things off a bit, but
temperatures will still remain around 10 to 15 degrees above
average.

Little to no precipitation is expected with dry conditions
continuing through early Thursday morning. We`re exiting
convective season, so can`t completely rely on buoyancy alone
to generate showers across the area. As the backdoor cool front
moves southwestward across southeast Wyoming on Wednesday,
models show increasing low level convergence near the mountains.
This will be our "best" chance for precipitation over the next
5 days across southeast Wyoming. High res models showing some
shower activity developing along and south of the I-80 corridor
from Rawlins to Cheyenne, but mainly added 15% to 20% POP to the
mountains with mostly virga expected in the valleys due to a
dry boundary layer. Otherwise, the majority of the forecast area
will remain dry with occasional scattered clouds in the
afternoon.

Record high temperatures are expected once again Tuesday for
southeast Wyoming with afternoon high temperatures in the upper
70s to low 80s. Cheyenne, Rawlins, and Laramie have the best
chance to see record highs around 80 degrees. Western Nebraska
will get close, but highs may be a few degrees cooler compared
to Monday. This, combined with higher daily records set back in
the 1970`s, will make it harder for breaking daily record high
temperatures today...although record high low temperatures look
more probable. Once the weak backdoor cool front moves through
the region Wednesday, record highs are unlikely for most places
along and east of Albany County.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

High confidence in warm and dry weather continues through Saturday,
but a major pattern change is increasingly likely beginning around
Sunday.

Broad ridging will continue to dominate the western US through the
end of the week. Ensembles are in pretty good agreement showing the
strength of the ridge moderating just slightly on Wednesday and
Thursday, so forecast highs will be just a few degrees cooler
than today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be closest to records
again at Laramie and Rawlins, as the core of the ridge will
remain to our west. While humidity will remain low and lead to
elevated fire weather conditions, winds are expected to remain
light through this period. Therefore, critical fire weather
conditions are unlikely. The ridge will start to amplify again
on Friday into Saturday as its axis shifts rapidly eastward
towards the central CONUS. 700-mb temperatures will remain
around the climatological 90th percentile for this period. With
the ridge moving east, flow aloft will turn more to the
southwest, opening the door to increased wind speeds especially
in Carbon, Albany, and Converse counties. While high winds are
unlikely (10-20% chance) this may increase fire weather concerns
for Friday and Saturday. In addition, a few ensemble members
show some disorganized vorticity meandering through our area
under the ridge during this period. Combined with the southwest
flow increasing mid to upper level moisture, we may see isolated
high- based showers returning to the forecast by the end of the
week. Current chances for measurable precipitation remain slim.


Major changes are increasingly likely beginning around Sunday. While
confidence is high that something will change, there is low
confidence in what the new weather pattern will look like. Ensembles
are unanimously showing some type of powerful Pacific trough
approaching the area Sunday or Monday, but are in very poor
agreement on exactly how this moves through the area. The LREF suite
is split nearly 50-50 into two clusters. In one cluster, the Pacific
trough moves through more quickly, and as an open wave. This would
lead to a dramatic cool down on Sunday or Monday with higher chances
for widespread freezing temperatures. Overall QPF expectations
are lower in this scenario (widespread 0.1 to 0.4"), but the
chance for snow falling in more populated areas would be higher.
The other cluster of ensembles depicts the upper level low
diving further south and closing off over the western US. The
storm moves through much more slowly, leading to significantly
warmer temperatures Sunday and Monday and a delayed cool down
after the end of the operational forecast period. In this
scenario, overall QPF expectations look considerably higher
(widespread 0.4 to 0.8", but the chance for snow would be lower
due to warmer temperatures when precipitation is falling. One
other interesting tidbit is that ECMWF AIFS and GEFS AI members
tend to strongly prefer the faster, drier, and colder former
scenario. This will be an interesting event to watch for the
performance of these relatively new guidance tools.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

An upper level ridge axis will remain over the Intermountain West
this week, resulting in mostly clear skies and dry conditions over
the region.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will continue over the next
24 hours with minimal impacts to Aviation expected. Winds will
generally be light out of the west and northwest between 16z and
23z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...TJT