Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

531
FXUS65 KCYS 260900
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
200 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warnings in effect through 11 AM this morning. After
  a 6 to 12 hour lull, new High Wind Warnings are in effect from
  this evening through Saturday morning.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through 6PM Friday evening.
  Another round of elevated to critical fire weather conditions
  possible Saturday afternoon.

- Widespread precipitation chances return early next week,
  though daily probabilities remain only between about 30 and
  50%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 159 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

Active weather continues for the next several winds as high winds
remains across the region and critical fire weather conditions
develop for Friday. The upper-level ridge across the western CONUS
will build throughout the day today, shifting upper-level winds for
a more west-northwesterly to true northwesterly by late Thursday
evening. The primary lobe of 500mb vorticity will advect out of the
region by 8AM this morning, taking the more favorable synoptic lift
with it. A weaker lobe pushes through this afternoon and may briefly
increase precipitation chances of the mountains before all
precipitation tapers off by early this evening. 700mb flow will
remain amplified throughout the day today, but looks to max out
between about 2AM and 5AM this morning when the 700mb jet increases
to around 70-75kts. 700mb will start to taper off significantly
starting around 8AM this morning and continuing through about 5PM
this afternoon. Therefore, the High Wind Warnings will remain in
effect through this morning before expiring by noon today. However,
a 700mb low over southern Canada will eject eastward today, leading
to increasing 700mb height gradients once again, starting around 5PM
this evening into early Friday morning. The 55 to 60kt jet will
return once again overnight with strong subsident flow progged by
the GFS. With in-house guidance also suggesting high winds
continuing, a new High Wind Warning has been issued for Arlington,
Bordeaux, the I-80 Summit, and Foothills starting around 5PM tonight
and continuing through 11 AM Saturday morning. Additionally, central
Laramie County has a new High Wind Warning starting at 5 AM Friday
morning and continuing through 5 PM Friday when subsidence along the
Laramie Range and 700mb jet are at their strongest. The lull between
the end of high winds this morning and the start of the next round
of high winds looked to be long enough to suggest new High Wind
Warnings, rather than extending the current warning through Friday
evening and/or Saturday morning. With high winds expected to
continue, the associated dry, subsident flow will keep locations
east of the Laramie Range very dry with relative humidity values
dropping down to about 15 to 20% throughout Saturday afternoon. With
very strong winds expected to continue, especially right along the
Laramie Range, critical fire weather conditions are expected to
develop. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect through Friday
evening.

Friday will be another windy day across much of the region as upper-
level northwesterly flow remains dominant. However, during the day
Friday, the upper-level ridge will remain mostly stationary, but a
broad trough over Canada will sink south into the northern CONUS,
increasing the height gradients across the region significantly.
700mb flow is expected to remain largely elevated throughout the day
Friday, leading to breezy conditions just about everywhere and high
winds likely in the wind prones and central Laramie County. As the
upper-level trough sags south, increasing gradients throughout the
atmosphere, 700mb gradients wil restrengthen with a stronger jet,
leading to the next round of high winds throughout Friday afternoon,
namely looking at the central Laramie County area. Precipitation is
not anticipated on Friday with the very dry conditions east of the
Laramie Range, combined with continued subsidence aloft. Expected
mostly sunny skies Friday, just very strong winds for areas along
and just east of the Laramie Range. Temperatures will be warm once
again, in the low-50s to mid-60s everywhere. Unfortunately, with
continued dry, subsident flow, relative humidity values Friday
afternoon will tank even lower, into the 10 to 15% range, with the
lowest values along the I-80 corridor from Cheyenne to Sidney. With
Cheyenne expected to see high winds, and locations downstream seeing
very elevated winds with gusts up to 45mph, extremely critical fire
weather conditions are expected to develop Friday afternoon. The Red
Flag Warning will remain in effect through at least Friday
afternoon, but the potential may be there for an extension into
Saturday afternoon as dry conditions continue.

Saturday will remain largely quiet with the region sandwiched
between the upper-level ridge to the southwest and the upper-level
trough to the northeast. Northwesterly flow will remain across the
region, with 700mb flow slowly decreasing throughout the afternoon
hours. High winds are anticipated to end by late Saturday morning,
with only elevated winds continuing through the afternoon and
evening hours. Additionally, 700mb flow flips more southwesterly
across Carbon County, leading to a slight chance (15-20%) of
precipitation across the Laramie Range. Significant snowfall is not
expected and will likely be less than an inch or two given the dry
atmosphere in place. However, this will signal a potentially pattern
shift for the week ahead with slightly higher precipitation chances
across the region. Saturday looks to be the warmest day in the near
future, with highs in the 50s and 60s east of the Laramie Range and
mid-50s west. With warm temperatures and continued downslope flow,
dry conditions are expected for most areas east of the Laramie Range
Saturday afternoon. Relative humidity values are currently progged
to drop back into the 15-20% range once again Saturday afternoon.
With elevated winds expected, Fire Weather Headlines may be needed
for Saturday afternoon as well. Will let day shift take another look
at future model runs to determine if an extension of the Red Flag
Warning is warranted.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 159 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

Upper-level ridging is expected to continue through at least Monday
evening ahead of a developing upper-level low moving into the
western CONUS Monday morning. Ahead of the incoming low, rather
benign conditions are expected, with even 700mb winds taper off
significantly, and taking the chance of high winds with them.
Additionally, multiple lobes of 500mb vorticity will eject out ahead
of the low and across the CWA, resulting in additional synoptic lift
across the region and increasing precipitation chances Sunday
onwards. The best chance for precipitation looks to be Wednesday as
the upper-level low digs eastward across the Four Corners Region
before taking a strong jaunt northerly. As of right now, the surface
low associated with this system appears to be too far south to give
the entire CWA significant precipitation. However, if the low moves
further north the region will be under the favorable northern side
of the low with the potentially for strong, easterly, upslope flow
along I-80 and points north. At this time, both the ECMWF and GFS
keep the low too far south, but the ECMWF gives the region more
precipitation leading up to the surface low deepening and ejecting
northeasterly across Oklahoma and Kansas. The GFS on the other hand
develops a strong 700mb low across northeastern Colorado and ejects
it off to the north into the Midwest. The surface low, however, is
displaced well to the southeast of the center of the 700mb low.
Either way, this will be something to keep an eye on as we approach
the middle of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the majority of our terminals in
the CWA for this TAF period, with KBFF being the exception. BR and
FG, VIS varying between 1/2SM to 1 1/2SM, will plague the terminal
through 12Z, as indicated by hi-res guidance. This will drop flight
categories down to LIFR and occasionally to VLIFR. LLWS may also
hinder aviation operations, specifically for KLAR and KCYS which
will end by 11Z. Winds, as a whole, will remain gusty across the
southeast Wyoming terminals for the entirety of this TAF period,
with gusts 30 to 50 knots, while the Nebraska terminals will
see winds generally less than 10 knots through 09Z. However,
this won`t last as winds will ramp back up for the Nebraska
sites, KSNY first at 09Z followed the remaining sites by 18Z
with gusts to around 25 knots.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST Friday
     for WYZ417-418-430>433.
     High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for WYZ106-110-
     116-117.
     High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday for WYZ106-110-116-117.
     High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for WYZ118.
     High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for WYZ118.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST Friday
     for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...RZ