Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

833
FXUS65 KCYS 041147
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
545 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon and evening storms, some of which may become strong
  to severe, will be possible Saturday and again early next
  week along and east of I-25.

- Sunday will be the driest day as an upper level ridge builds
  over the area.

- Hot temperatures expected Sunday and Monday, with highs
  topping out in the mid 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Pretty quiet weather this morning as all of the thunderstorm
activity has moved well south and east of the forecast area,
leaving mostly clear skies over the region. Otherwise, a
typical July weather pattern will continue over the Front Range
as a ridge of pressure aloft gradually intensifies over the
next 60 hours. Weak winds will continue along with 700mb
temperatures climbing above 15c by Sunday afternoon. Pleasant
Independence Day today with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Models,
including high res CAM guidance, showing a lower coverage of
showers and thunderstorms today compared to what was previously
expected. Although SPC hangs onto the Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms along and east of the I-25 corridor, high res
guidance shows most of this activity further south along I-80
and mostly into Colorado and central Nebraska. This is because
models have initialized the upper level shortwave further south
and east...now showing it exiting the region as early as 3 PM
this afternoon. Not completely comfortable lowering POP and Prob
thunder below 25 percent quite yet with some activity expected from
around Cheyenne to Sidney, and another potential cluster of thunderstorms
forming along the Pine Ridge of the northern Nebraska panhandle
and quickly moving southeast into Box Butte and Morrill counties
between 3 PM and 5 PM. Any of these thunderstorms may contain
large hail and/or strong gusty winds. Model soundings still show
MLCAPE and SBCAPE around 1000 to 1500 j/kg, which is a little
lower compared to yesterday but sufficient to produce significant
convection with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. The other question
is the westward extent of the convection. Current observations
along the I-25 corridor show the lack of return flow from the
Great Plains with dewpoints stuck in the low to mid 30s for
portions of the I-25 corridor and the Laramie Range. Will keep
and eye on this trend and may need to lower the coverage of
thunderstorms and/or limit the severe wording in this area.
Thankfully, it looks like the bulk of the activity will be
moving southeast out of the area by 6 PM this evening (may
change depending on outflow boundary interactions). Lowered POP
and prob thunder this evening as a result.

Sunday looks much quieter as a strong upper level ridge axis
develops over the Front Range. 700mb temperatures are forecast
to respond with values between 14c to 19c across the region,
warmest over central Wyoming. Therefore, expect even Rawlins and
Laramie to see highs in the mid to possibly upper 80s Sunday
afternoon. With dry air aloft mixing down to the surface as a
result of increasing midlevel subsidence associated with the
upper level ridge, expect daytime convection to struggle to
develop. High res models show some activity trying to get going
around the Laramie Range and the northern part of the Cheyenne
Ridge over towards Banner county and southern Platte/Goshen, but
all high res CAMs show the activity quickly dissipating. In
addition, shear is expected to decrease with only 10 to 15 knots
in the afternoon. Lowered POP below 15 percent with only a few
single cell thunderstorms possible, but unlikely at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Monday...Similar synoptic pattern to Sunday, with enough mid level
moisture to produce isolated to widely scattered afternoon and
evening thunderstorms, primarily east of I-25 where convergence at
low levels will be maximized.

Tuesday...Beneficial rain appears increasingly likely as low and mid
level moisture increases markedly, while a shortwave trough aloft,
also known as an atmospheric perturbation, moves overhead near peak
heating, sparking scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially
east of a Douglas to Laramie line, with isolated convection further
west in the drier airmass.

Wednesday...Shortwave ridging builds aloft and with decreasing
atmospheric moisture in the low and mid levels, expect a
corresponding decrease in areal coverage of showers and
thunderstorms.

Thursday...Expect a slight increase in afternoon and evening shower
and thunderstorm coverage, as a shortwave trough aloft passes
overhead near peak heating, though coverage will be limited and
scattered due to warm temperatures aloft producing some convective
inhibition, also known as CIN.

Friday...GFS showing a decent discontinuity in PWAT, precipitable
water values, and low and mid level moisture from dry punch across
southeast Wyoming, to a buoyant and moist atmosphere across western
Nebraska. Since it is still day seven, our relatively low POPS for
our eastern counties looks decent for now, though later shifts may
see chances for thunderstorms, particularly across western Nebraska
increase for the afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Upper level disturbance is forecast to slide southeast across the
high plains by mid afternoon, resulting in an isolated to widely
scattered coverage of thunderstorms. Gusty winds and brief heavy
rainfall possible.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail today and
tonight with relatively light winds. Models have trended towards
lower coverage of thunderstorm activity today compared to 24 hours
ago with activity moving out of the area earlier in the evening.
Kept PROB30 groups for KCYS, KBFF, and KSNY between 20z and 00z
which have the best chance of thunder and rain showers this
afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...TJT