Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

129
FXUS65 KCYS 310503
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1103 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record warmth and critical fire weather conditions will
  continue through Monday evening.

- Widely scattered high-based showers this afternoon and evening
  will have the potential to produce gusty and erratic winds and
  a few isolated lightning strikes.

- A cold front arriving Monday night will bring cooler
  temperatures and a chance for widespread rain and snow
  showers Tuesday through Wednesday night.

- Accumulating snow is expected for the higher mountains above
  9000 ft in elevation Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

- After a brief warmup Thursday, another strong cold front will
  sweep through the area and bring another round of rain and
  snow Thursday afternoon into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Another warm, dry, and windy day is underway across the area today,
but changes are just around the corner. Currently, west-southwest
flow aloft is supporting strong, gusty winds mainly over Carbon and
Converse counties. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are
present due to the windy conditions and relative humidity down below
15% once again. We have a bit of cloud cover present across the
area, which is holding temperatures down a degree or two cooler
than forecast for several areas, but temperatures are still
well above average for this time of year. Current satellite
observations shows cumulus cloud development over southeast
Wyoming, in place of about 100-300 J/kg of surface based CAPE.
While this isn`t a lot, it should support the development of
widely scattered showers which should show up shortly, and
continue through the evening hours. A few isolated lightning
strikes are possible, which will exacerbate the fire weather
concerns if this occurs. In addition, these showers are forming
with fairly high bases, and over the top of an extremely dry,
well-mixed boundary layer. With the already strong background
flow in place, it won`t take much to boost winds to high wind
criteria in some of the wind prone areas. A short-fused High
Wind Warning has been issued for portions of Carbon and Converse
counties, which will run through 10PM. Winds should begin to
weaken around 7-8pm, but the threat for a few gusty showers
prompted the decision to run the warning a few hours longer.

A shortwave trough passing to our north has supported broad lee
cyclogenesis over most of our High Plains areas today. These
pressure falls will begin to shift east into central Nebraska this
evening, which will allow the cold front currently stalled across
northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota to surge southward.
Expect this to push into the Douglas to Chadron corridor around 9-
11PM, then reach I-80 around 2AM. Expect a surge in north to
northeast winds behind the frontal boundary. Gusts will be
consistently 35 to 45 mph for several hours behind the frontal
passage, with a few gusts up to around 55 mph possible. The surface
front will stall along the Laramie Range by early Tuesday morning,
not quite reaching the Rawlins to Laramie corridor. Scattered shower
activity will continue through the night and into Tuesday morning,
but these will not amount to much, if any, precipitation.

We will have a fairly complex weather setup over our area on
Tuesday. A cool airmass will be entrenched east of the Laramie Range
with widespread upslope flow supporting plentiful cloud cover.
Surface winds will begin the day out of the northeast and then
rotate around through east to southeast by the afternoon hours.
Meanwhile, Carbon and Albany county will be under a completely
different airmass with strong southeast winds kicking up through the
day. Expect highs about 5-10 degrees above average in Rawlins,
Saratoga, and Laramie, while those to the east will range from near
average to about 10 degrees below average. Despite the mild surface
temperatures, we will actually have quite cold temperatures aloft
tomorrow, which will produce very steep lapse rates. Along and west
of the Laramie range, we will be looking at perhaps 500 to 750 J/kg
of CAPE at times. Broad ascent ahead of the next trough approaching
will support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms
around mid afternoon. With decent speed shear, a few strong
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. These will struggle once east of
the Laramie range due to losing access to surface based instability,
but we may see elevated shower and isolated thunderstorm activity
continuing eastward Tuesday afternoon and evening.

By Tuesday evening, a fetch of deeper moisture will arrive,
initiating moist upslope southwesterly flow in the higher mountains.
Snow levels will be quite high, but accumulating snow can be
expected above 9000 ft in the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Expect shower activity to increase in coverage
across the rest of the area as weak isentropic lift develops
well ahead of the main trough axis. We should finally start to
see some shower activity putting down measurable rainfall totals
by this time. Over the High Plains, southeast winds will
increase in strength Tuesday evening and into Wednesday morning,
perhaps supporting a few gusts over 50 mph, which is fairly
rare for that wind direction. This will be caused by a
developing lee cyclones over central Colorado and central
Wyoming dropping surface pressure there while the surface high
remains strong over the northern Plains.

The main trough axis will arrive on Wednesday. Model trends have
pointed more towards a weaker, slower, and more positively tilted
upper level trough, which has unfortunately tempered precipitation
expectations for the area. However, there will still be a decent
window for widespread precipitation on Wednesday into early Thursday
morning. 700-mb temperatures around 0 to -3C will setup a very
marginal situation for precipitation type, but even areas seeing
snow probably won`t see much accumulation due to the warm surface
temperatures (outside of the mountains). Overall QPF was trended
down slightly from the NBM due to the disorganized nature of the
event. There will be abundant moisture present, so localized amounts
of over 0.5" liquid can be expected, but this will not be very
widespread. Expect precipitation to clear out by around midnight
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A potent upper-level trough will come ashore the west coast on
Thursday and quickly make its way eastward throughout the day. This
trough will bring precipitation chances to the CWA for the end of
the work week. By Thursday night, the trough will enter the western
reaches of the CWA, with precipitation creeping into Carbon and
Albany Counties as early as Thursday afternoon. The cold front
associated with this trough will be rather strong, advecting much
colder air into the region very quickly. While precipitation may
start as rain Thursday afternoon, it may quickly change to snow with
the frontal passage. This raises concerns for snow squall potential
as there will be minor instability out west with blustery conditions
from a strong MSLP gradient. A flash freeze behind the front is also
in question depending how quickly temperatures drop and when
precipitation arrives. Snow will likely continue into the overnight
hours for areas west of the Laramie Range with some accumulation
possible for the lower elevations.

Models begin to differ Friday with how to handle the upper-level
closed low associated with the trough. The GFS has a more northerly
track along the Wyoming/Montana border while the ECMWF takes a more
southerly track along the Colorado/Wyoming border. The more
northerly solution of the GFS is dryer, keeping most of the
precipitation in the northern zones of the CWA. The more southerly
track of the ECMWF brings the precipitation a bit farther south in
the North Platte River Valley, but still mostly keeps the Interstate
80 corridor east of Cheyenne rather dry. Regardless of which
solution comes to fruition, both have much colder high
temperatures on Friday behind the front. Highs will mainly be
in the 30s and 40s, with 50s possible in the southern Nebraska
panhandle. These colder temperatures means precipitation could
fall as snow, or at least a rain/snow mix. At this time, cannot
rule out some lower elevation accumulations for areas east of
the Laramie Range, but for now, the most confidence in
accumulation remains in the high terrain.

Once the trough moves out of the region, a return to warmer and
drier conditions can be expected as upper-level ridging takes its
place. Cold air aloft will still be in place Saturday, so the return
to above average temperatures will happen on Sunday with highs in
the 50s and upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A cold front will dive south across the CWA tonight followed by a
weak warm front pushing through Tuesday afternoon. Both of these
will bring increased chances of precipitation and lower CIGs.
Confidence is lower with the system initially, so kept PROB30 groups
to account for this into Tuesday afternoon. By 00Z Wednesday,
confidence increases in the timing and coverage of precipitation and
as a result, expect MVFR conditions to impact all terminals at
varying times sometime around 00Z Wednesday and after with CIGs less
than 5K feet and VIS around 4SM in -RA. In addition, with these two
fronts, expect wind shift from the north to south by Tuesday
afternoon with gusts 25 to 35 knots.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 9 PM MDT
     Wednesday for WYZ112-114.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...RZ