Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

841
FXUS65 KCYS 082350
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
450 PM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to or just above average temperatures and dry conditions
  are expected to continue into mid-week.

- Breezier winds return today into Monday; however, fire
  weather conditions are not anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 152 PM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

Upper level ridging is still the dominant pattern in the short term
forecast. On satellite, low to mid altitude clouds are starting to
fill in for the Pacific Northwest as the upper low inches closer to
the coastline. While low clouds aren`t expected here, the skies over
Southeast Wyoming will slowly start to become cloudy throughout the
day Monday. Winds are also going to be rather breezy as well. That
same system will push against our ridge and tightens the height
gradient across the Intermountain West. The Craig to Casper gradient
still looks to be around 45 to 47 meters for elevated wind
conditions for our Wind prones. 700mb wind speeds look to be around
35 to 40 knots starting early Monday morning. With the synoptic
winds from a Westerly direction there will some downsloping to
potentially keep most areas warmer on Monday as well. The global
model Omega fields also show a kind of mountain wave pattern that
may exceed model surface winds especially in our wind prone areas
along I-80 and I-25. Our in-house algorithm depicts a decent chance
for elevated to potentially high winds along our wind prones. Other
than that temperatures look to be in the 50`s and 60`s in the higher
elevations west of I-25 but in the elevations to the east some areas
will be in the mid to upper 60`s. Chadron may actually have
temperatures in the upper 50`s due to upslope easterly winds over
the Pine Ridge area. Overnight temperatures look to be in the 30`s
and 40`s tonight and Monday. This is mostly due to the expected
downsloping winds expected to occur over the next 36 to 48 hours.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

Warm and dry weather is expected to continue for the rest of the
operational forecast period. Picking up on Tuesday, we will have a
little bit to talk about as a clipper system passes just to our
northeast. Models are in good agreement keeping the system to our
north meaning nearly all ensembles are totally dry for the forecast
area. On the south side of the upper level shortwave, we can expect
to see 700-mb winds creep up Tuesday morning. A surface cyclone will
lead the upper level low developing over the Black Hills region
Tuesday morning. By the afternoon hours, expect this feature to pull
to the east, dragging the surface trough eastward away from the
Laramie range, and thus pulling gusty west to northwest winds across
the area into the High Plains. Most areas can expect maximum gusts
in the 35 to 45 mph range, but there is a chance for high winds in
the typical wind prone areas. Craig to Casper 700 and 850-mb height
gradients are around 45 to 50 meters, which is just on the low side
for high wind events. In house guidance now gives each of the wind
prone areas about a 40% chance for high winds, so this will be one
to watch. The best window is late Tuesday morning through about
sunset. Very dry air will also mix through the atmosphere, producing
at least elevated fire weather conditions. Despite modest cool air
advection through the day, we should still see temperatures climb to
about 10F above seasonal averages, generally in the 60s for the
plains and mid to upper 50s in the valleys west of the Laramie
range.

Wednesday will remain breezy, but gusts should be more in the 25 to
35 mph range. Northwest flow will persist aloft behind the departing
shortwave trough. 700-mb temperatures in the 0 to +2C range will
support highs closer to average, but still on the warm side.
Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week, with upper 50s to
lower 60s anticipated for the plains, and mid 50s for the valleys
west of the Laramie range.

A strong ridge amplifying to our west will encroach on the area
Thursday into the weekend. Expect a gradual warming trend Thursday
and Friday, with 700-mb temperatures peaking around +5 to +7C
Friday. High temperatures will remain about 10 to 15F above seasonal
averages. The ridge is expected to flatten out a bit over the
weekend. 700-mb temperatures drop slightly, and thus daytime high
expectations are a few degrees cooler than Friday for Saturday and
Sunday, but still warm for this time of year. Overall, it should be
a pleasant weekend. Portions of Carbon, Converse, and Albany
counties could be breezy, but nothing remotely unusual for this time
of year. With little to no precipitation expected anywhere in the
area for the next 7 days, it is tempting to look beyond the
operational forecast period for some hints at a pattern change.
Ensembles continue to kick the can down the road and push the
potential change further out, but most are showing the longwave
Pacific trough moving inland into the western CONUS by the weekend.
If this occurs, the door to potential storminess may open again in
the November 16 to 19 period. About 60% of ensembles show a storm
system passing through our area during this period, while 40% remain
mostly dry.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 450 PM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

Upper level ridge axis will weaken into Monday as a weak cool front
slides south into the high plains. Other than some high cloudiness,
quiet weather will continue through Monday afternoon.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions expected over the next 24
hours. Winds will become light and variable this evening before
shifting into the north early Monday morning as the weak cool front
moves south over the high plains.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...TJT