Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

110
FXUS65 KCYS 101733
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1033 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The long duration high wind event will resume mid Wednesday
  morning in Carbon and Albany county, then spread into the I-25
  corridor during the afternoon. Strong winds will last into
  Thursday evening.

- The wind prone areas along I-80 and I-25 can expect another
  round of wind gusts between 70 and 80 mph. A few gusts
  exceeding 80 mph are possible.

- Cheyenne, Laramie, Rawlins, and Wheatland can expect wind
  gusts between 60 and 70 mph, but occasional lulls or breaks in
  the high winds are expected with this round.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

The area is currently enjoying a temporary lull in the high wind
threat as a surface high settles in over the High Plains. GOES
satellite imagery shows the upper level low responsible for
yesterday`s strong winds continuing to race eastward, now located
near the Great Lakes. The next system is already moving into the
Pacific northwest, with mid to high level cloud cover apparent
streaming out ahead. Initially, the ridge over the southwest CONUS
is expected to amplify slightly, which will pushed the stalled mid-
level frontal boundary back to the northeast today.

The surface high will also begin to retreat this morning. Pressure
falls are expected to begin soon in the immediate lee of the Laramie
Range, but will be slow to spread much further east than I-25 today.
So, even as cross-barrier height and pressure gradients increase
rapidly today, the high wind threat will be more localized to areas
along and west of I-25 thanks to the position of the surface trough.
Overall gradients are expected to climb rapidly today, peaking in
the mid afternoon before leveling off or dropping off slightly
overnight and then reaching another, potentially higher peak
Thursday morning. Arlington to Bordeaux MSLP gradients reach
their first maximum this afternoon at around 6-mb, and then
climb to another max at 15z Thursday at nearly 8-mb. Compared to
Tuesday`s high wind event, 700-mb winds are about 5-8 knots
weaker this afternoon through Thursday. Similarly, 700-mb height
gradients are approximately 15-m weaker. However, local surface
pressure gradients get close (but not quite) to where they were
yesterday. Taken all together, this suggest that phase two of
the wind event will likely fall slightly short of matching phase
one, especially to the same spacial scale. Since we are still
likely to observe mountain wave breaking events today and
tomorrow, a few isolated observations matching or exceeding
Tuesday`s top gust of 87 mph cannot be ruled out, but overall
expectations are a touch lower for maximum wind gusts today.
While high winds will probably be quite consistent in the
typical wind prone areas beginning this morning and lasting
through Thursday evening, the adjacent zones may also see
occasional lulls or breaks in the wind in between mountain
waves, especially overnight.

The surface trough will delineate the boundary between a warmer and
cooler airmass today as well. Areas that get into the strong
westerly winds this afternoon will probably warm at least 5 to 10F
above those to the east of the surface trough, where southerly winds
will prevail. We will need to watch for a few rain and snow showers
this afternoon in our northern and eastern zones, supported by some
overrunning warm air advection aloft as the front retreats to the
northeast. Expect a very mild night tonight for much of the area as
westerly winds keep the boundary layer mixed. This will lead into
another mild day Thursday as winds spread further to the east. We`ll
be looking at widespread upper 50s to 60s for the High Plains,
approximately 20F above average for this time of year.

Another surface cold front is expected to approach the area Thursday
evening on the leading edge of another high pressure riding down the
eastern edge of the Rockies. This will bring another break in the
high winds as the pressure gradient reverses across the barrier.
We will also need to keep an eye on this for another round of
banded precipitation associated with frontogenesis slipping into
our area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

The long term period will be dominated by continued northwest flow
aloft. Expect to repeat the last few days once again on Friday, with
the ridge amplifying slightly and nudging the stalled boundary off
to the east. However, most models indicate that this next surface
high pressure will be a bit stronger and more stubborn than the
current one, so areas especially along and northeast of the North
Platte River Valley may remain quite chilly on Friday and Saturday.
There is a bit of uncertainty in where this boundary will set up,
which implies quite a bit of uncertainty in high temperature
forecasts over the High Plains for both days. These cold arctic
air-masses often have more staying power than models indicate
initially, so we will need to watch this to potentially bust Friday
and Saturday`s forecast highs by nearly 20F in the Wheatland to
Scottsbluff corridor if the position of the front is off even just
slightly. Unfortunately, it does look like the front will retreat
just enough to allow for a strong pressure gradient over our wind
prone areas once again. It is possible additional High Wind Warnings
may be needed as soon as Friday evening. Current probabilities for
Friday evening into Saturday morning are about 50 to 80% for the
wind prone areas. This event, if realized, would likely be confined
to the wind prone areas, and would be characterized as a much more
typical high wind event for our area.

Forecast headaches related to the stalled mid-level frontal boundary
will finally leave the area towards the end of the weekend. Models
are in good agreement showing a broad, strong upper level ridge
shifting eastward Sunday into Monday. This will push the baroclinic
zone quickly to our east, and usher in a more tranquil weather
period. Temperatures are also expected to climb for the entire area
during this period as cold air rapidly retreats. NAEFS mean 700-mb
temperatures exceed the 99th percentile of climatology by Sunday,
cresting around +6C over much of the area! Current forecasts are
within a few degrees of daily record highs at Laramie and Cheyenne.
Expect little to no chance for precipitation during this period.
Slight chances for mountain snow return by Tuesday or Wednesday, but
uncertainty is considerable at this lead time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1033 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Winds remaining southerly to southwest through the afternoon
turning more westerly around 5-7pm for CYS and Nebraska
terminals. For RWL and LAR southwest to westerly winds through
the period with wind gusts of 40-50kts through the afternoon
before falling off slightly tonight as gradient weaken with
incoming high pressure. There will be temporary breaks or lulls
in the strong surface winds, but expect to find significant WNW
LLWS during periods when surface winds are light. Nebraska will
get a break from the gusty winds today, but expect a few gusts
around 20 to 25 knots.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch through Thursday afternoon for WYZ101.
     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Thursday for WYZ104-109-113-
     115.
     High Wind Watch through Thursday afternoon for WYZ105.
     High Wind Warning until midnight MST Thursday night for WYZ106-
     117.
     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Thursday for WYZ107-118.
     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for WYZ110-116.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
     WYZ112-114.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...WFOCYS