Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

371
FXUS65 KCYS 222324
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
524 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for all areas east of the
  Laramie Range until this evening as critical fire conditions
  continue.

- Additional Red Flag Warnings are in effect for Thursday
  primarily across far southeastern Wyoming and the southern
  Nebraska Panhandle due to elevated fire concerns.

- Strong wind gusts caused by downbursts are possible this
  afternoon, even though the Marginal Risk has shifted east of
  the CWA.

- A widespread high wind event is ongoing and will continue
  through Thursday evening across most of southeast Wyoming.
  Therefore, High Wind Warnings and Watches remain in effect.

- Relatively cool and wet weather is expected for the weekend
  and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

As an upper-level, 500MB, ridge slides off to the east, a strong
upper-level trough will quickly take its place by tonight. This
trough will be our primary weather maker in the short term as it
brings multiple rounds of energy, vorticity maxima, into our CWA
which increases our chances of precipitation, more on that in a bit.
Switching gears, going down to the mid-levels, the 700MB jet has
increased through the morning hours to around 50 knots and will get
stronger this evening to around 70 knots. With ample downward motion
in the atmosphere, negative Omega per GFS, these winds will mix down
to the surface. That is already evident by surface observations as
we`ve seen gusts to near 70 mph. Another feature that will help is a
strengthening lee-side trough that will aid in spreading stronger
winds east into our lower elevations east of I-25. So, winds have
already picked up across our western forecast zones and will spill
over over into far eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle by
Thursday morning. Therefore, High Wind Warnings and Watches are
still in effect through 6pm Thursday.

A cold front will slide through the region this evening; however,
with a dry boundary layer in place, precipitation chances will be
minimal and very isolated at best. To our west, chances of snowfall
increases over the higher terrain, with the highest peaks possibly
seeing a few inches of accumulation. Now, thunderstorm chances
decreased for this afternoon as the Marginal Risk has shifted east,
per SPC. Even though, can`t totally rule out a few isolated, sub-
severe, thunderstorms over the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon.
Most of the precipitation associated with the cold front will dry
before hitting the ground, this will create VIRGA that may bring
isolated downbursts where a location may see a quick uptick in
winds. With all that said, due to dry conditions, RH values dipping
to as low as 5 percent, and an abundance of dry fuels, critical fire
weather conditions are in place. This has resulted in a Red Flag
Warning that is out until 8pm this evening. The threat wains a bit
tonight, but returns Thursday with similar conditions as to today,
more confined to southeastern fire zones, which includes Cheyenne.
So, additional Red Flag Warnings are out from 9am to 6pm Thursday.

Onto Thursday and Friday, as the fire weather threat ends across all
of our CWA by Thursday afternoon, high winds will continue. The
upper-level trough, mentioned previously, will continue to plague
our region with rounds of energy aloft. This will increase chances
of precipitation as moisture filters in along with clouds, resulting
in cooler temperatures. This will be reinforced by another cold
front that pushes through the CWA Thursday evening. Rain will be the
primary threat at the lower elevations, but in the mountains it will
fall as snow. Here in Cheyenne, we are not anticipating any
snowfall. Winds will diminish Thursday evening while another shot of
elevated winds are possible west of I-25 on Friday. Temperatures
will be cooler then today as highs will only top out in the upper-
40s to upper-50s while lows dip below the freezing mark.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Saturday...While the flow aloft is zonal, west to east, it looks
like adequate low and mid level moisture for scattered rain and snow
showers. Slightly warmer than Friday based on 700 mb temperatures.

Sunday...Looks like some much needed precipitation as a slow moving
trough aloft moves overhead, and with a moist airmass and low level
upslope enhancing lift, we expect widespread showers to affect the
forecast area. Somewhat cooler compared to Saturday with all the
cloud cover and expected precipitation.

Monday...Zonal flow aloft continues and with enough low and mid
level moisture and upslope low level lift, we expect scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms due to the instability.

Tuesday...Low amplitude ridging aloft moves overhead, though with
adequate low and mid level moisture, we anticipate scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms. Slightly warmer based on 700 mb temperature
trends.

Wednesday...The next trough aloft moves to the four corners with
weak northwest flow aloft over our forecast area. With some increase
in low and mid level moisture, we anticipate an increase in areal
coverage of showers and some thunderstorms. Temperatures about the
same as on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Southwest flow aloft will continue, while a strong cold front
moves across the forecast area this evening, with wind
direction changing after frontal passage.

Wyoming TAFS...High confidence in scattered to broken clouds
from 10000 to 20000 feet. Surface pressure gradients suggest
wind gusts to 45 knots.

Nebraska TAFS...High confidence in scattered to broken clouds
from 12000 to 20000 feet. Surface pressure gradients will help
produce wind gusts up to 35 knots for Chadron, Alliance and
Sidney, with gusts up to 45 knots for Scottsbluff.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417-418-
     430>433.
     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ430-431-
     433.
     High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ101-104-109-
     111-113.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ106-110-
     116>118.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ107-108-115-
     119.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434>437.
     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NEZ435>437.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for NEZ003-019>021-054-055-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN