Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

604
FXUS65 KCYS 080536
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1036 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warnings are in effect for the typical wind prone
  areas of southeast Wyoming starting this afternoon through
  Monday morning.

- Warming trend through Monday, cooler temperatures from Tuesday
  onward.

- The probability for a significant and widespread wind event on
  Thursday and/or Friday continues to increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM MST Sat Mar 7
2026

Abundant clear skies are in place over southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska in a post-storm northwest-flow regime this
Saturday afternoon. Despite the sunny skies, chilly conditions
are present relative to recent temperatures, with highs only
reaching around seasonal averages for most locations. Gusty
northwest winds have added a crisp late-winter feel to the air,
with some isolated areas of blowing snow in the higher and
exposed terrain of the Laramie and Snowy ranges and across the
I-80 corridor. A well-advertised high-wind event will continue
to ramp up this afternoon and evening over the typical wind-
prone corridors of southeast Wyoming including the Snowy Range
foothills and Laramie Range foothills. This event, primarily
driven by strengthening pressure and height gradients draped
across the southeast WY mountains, will reach its peak intensity
through the day on Sunday and Sunday night. In-house guidance
supports a nearly 48-hour stretch of wind gusts over 60 mph for
the Arlington and Bordeaux areas, and has indicated as such for
the past several guidance cycles giving this event high-
confidence through the short-term period.

Northwest flow will slowly back to westerly flow on Sunday,
resulting in a more favorable downslope orientation over
southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska on Sunday. This, combined
with rising mid-level temperatures, will result in afternoon
highs running nearly 15 degrees warmer on Sunday than on
Saturday. Locations such as Scottsbluff, Alliance and Chadron
will likely take a run at 70 degrees on Sunday afternoon. As
mentioned before, high-confidence in a strong gradient-driven
wind event will continue through Sunday afternoon and overnight
in the Wyoming wind-prone corridors.

Expect one more day of warming temperatures on Monday as heights
and mid-level temperatures reach their maximum on Monday
evening. Fast-westerly downslope flow will aid in boosting
afternoon temperatures and skies are expected to remain mostly
sunny through the day. While gradient flow slackens slightly on
Monday, a favorable albeit weaker downward momentum setup will
result in more widespread gusty winds on Monday, but the
strongest corridors of winds should generally drop below high
wind criteria. The primary weather concern on Monday will be
fire weather, with much of the Wyoming high plains and Nebraska
Panhandle experiencing RH values below 20% with wind gusts over
25 mph. A fire weather watch will have to be considered for
Monday if this forecast trend continues.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM
MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Following the warm, dry, and breezy weather on Monday, attention
will turn to an approaching cold front from the north on
Tuesday. Recent ensemble guidance has trended a bit slower with
the progression of this cold front, and it may end up remaining
just off to the north in northeast Wyoming throughout most of
the day on Tuesday. Still, increasing RH values above 500mb will
result in a much cloudier day on Tuesday and mid-level
temperatures will start to drop ahead of the approaching trough.
These factors combined will result in lower afternoon highs on
Tuesday by around 10 degrees.

The cold front will pass through southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska later on Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
bringing a sharp drop in surface temperatures as well as the
chance for a few rain showers quickly turning to snow showers.
Ensemble mean QPF values remain quite low with this system,
likely remaining less than 0.1" or so for most locations. The
northern Laramie Range may see around 1-3 inches of snow from
this event given favorable northerly upslope, but no snow
accumulations of note are expected outside of this area on
Tuesday.

Following the departure of this frontal system, expect fast
westerly flow to return to southeast Wyoming as another strong
gradient-driven high wind event moves in. Even at the day 5-7
range, pattern recognition and local-in-house guidance is
showing very high confidence in 60mph+ winds over both the I-80
and I-25 travel corridors in southeast Wyoming from Wednesday
evening through Friday of next week. High-confidence also exists
in above-normal temperatures given a developing ridge over the
southwestern CONUS. By the end of the week, forecast confidence
decreases somewhat as some ensemble groups favor a southward
trend in the jet bringing clouds and precipitation back to the
mountains, and other ensemble groups keep the storm track
farther north.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1036 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

High winds are going to prevalent in the wind prone areas of
Southeast WY. This means wind shear likely overnight as the
700mb jet is expected to maintain these conditions. KLAR may
lose their gusts around 06z due to the Bowl/valley they are in
and have no windshear in response. The Nebraska terminals are
expected to lose their gusts overnight but have it come back
shortly after sunrise. Tomorrow evening the wind shear looks to
come back around 45-50 kts over the Panhandle. There are
midlevel clouds between 11,000ft to 20,000ft transiting through
overnight from Northwest WY and Southern SD. Otherwise some
high based cirrus should be over us during the morning and
clearing out by the afternoon tomorrow.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday
     afternoon for WYZ417-418-430>433.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST Monday for WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday
     afternoon for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...MM