Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

962
FXUS65 KCYS 010521
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1121 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Westerly downslope winds will keep majority of the forecast
  area dry today with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
  in the northern portion of Converse and Niobrara county
  through late this afternoon.

- Monday & Tuesday brings another chance for strong to severe
  thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. There is a slight  risk
  (level 2 of 5) across the eastern high plains on Monday.
  Large hail, severe wind, and an isolated tornado possible.

- A warming and slight drying trend appears likely after
  Wednesday with temperatures climbing into the 80s by later in
  the week and during next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

Quieter weather observed today across much of the area with
seasonable temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Current KCYS
radar loop shows some widely scattered thunderstorms over east
central Wyoming, northeast of I-25. Expect this activity to remain
sub-severe as it moves eastward through the afternoon and evening
hours. Further south, dry westerly winds have continued with High
Wind Warnings in effect for Arlington/Elk Mountain and Bordeaux,
along I-80 and I-25 respectively. Peak gust so far today has been 65
MPH between Elk Mountain and Arlington. Will let this Warning go for
a few more hours before expiring it at 300 PM. Winds have already
shown sign of diminishing across these areas early this afternoon.
Otherwise, with a dry airmass in place and clearing skies, expected
chilly lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s across most of the area by
early Monday morning.

For Monday, showers and thunderstorms should return to the high
plains as surface winds shift into the south and southeast. Further
west, another broad upper level trough will brush the northern Great
Basin region and move into Wyoming later in the day. Depending on
the timing, there is another good chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms across far southeast Wyoming and most of the western
Nebraska Panhandle mid to late afternoon and early evening hours.
Guidance shows the moisture return fairly slow across most of the
high plains with dewpoints gradually climbing through the afternoon.
All other parameters look good with 0-6km shear around 40 knots and
some 0-2 km low level shear. Will monitor to see how good the
moisture return off the Great Plains is heading into tomorrow with
models showing large discrepancies in moisture (and CAPE). SPC has
an area of Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms southeast of a line
from Cheyenne to Chadron Nebraska, and a Marginal Risk towards the I-
25 corridor. With deeper low level moisture arriving by the evening
hours with south to southeast winds, added some fog to the I-80
corridor through early Tuesday morning.

A quick look into Tuesday, possibly a better convective environment
setting up for the day. Models show a subtle shortwave lifting
northeast across the area through the day with ample low level
moisture and dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s possible. Typical
convergence axis sets up along the Laramie Range and should provide
the forcing needed to break any cap inversion that sets up that
morning. Will need to monitor Tuesday afternoon closely with deep
shear and SBCAPE as high as 2000 j/kg. Relatively low LCL`s and 0-1
km EHI`s between 1 to 2 are also concerning along and east of the I-
25 corridor.
SPC currently has a large Marginal Risk, but this may become at
least a Slight Risk over the next 24 hours. Temperatures will be
pleasant as we enter June with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.
Slightly cooler along the south facing ridges due to southerly winds
(Pine Ridge, Cheyenne Ridge).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

We remain under SW flow aloft upstream of a high amplitude
positively-tilted ridge centered over Ontario and the Great Lakes
region, resulting in mostly dry and above-average temperatures
heading into the second half of the week. Thanks to trajectories
stemming from the Gulf of Mexico, PWAT over SE Wyoming and W
Nebraska will be in the 80th-90th percentile relative to
climatology. This will allow for daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms despite the absence of any large-scale forcing for
ascent. Despite anomalously high PWAT, long range ensemble
forecast soundings continue to show large dewpoint depressions
at the surface and inverted-V profiles, so any showers or storms
will likely produce far more wind than any beneficial moisture.
The threat for any severe weather looks to remain low towards
the end of the week as deep-layer shear is weak due to the lack
of mid and upper level flow. Going into the weekend, high
temperatures are expected to push 80 degrees west of the I-25
corridor, with even a few 90s for our Nebraska counties as we
remain under longwave ridging through the end of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1118 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

Mostly quiet conditions expected overnight as a few showers
slowly drift across portions of the Nebraska Panhandle. These
showers may briefly produce gusty and erratic winds. KBFF has
the best chance to see the showers over the next 1 to 3 hours.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop early this morning across the
Nebraska Panhandle, but confidence is low. KBFF, KSNY, and KAIA
have the best chance of seeing isolated thunderstorms. More
widespread thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon and
evening hours. All hazards are possible with these storms: hail
to 2 inches, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado or two.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AM