Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

927
FXUS65 KCYS 090911
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
311 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures with dry and breezy conditions will
  lead to fire weather concerns on Friday.

- A pattern change will lead to more seasonable temperatures and
  increase precipitation chances next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

A few more days of mild temperatures are expected in the short term
before a pattern change leads to cooler and wetter conditions. Weak
upper-level ridging continues today, with 700 mb temperatures maxing
out around +13C. NAEFS has these temperatures around the 97.5th
percentile. The anomalously warm temperatures will lead to
highs in the 70s to low 90s with the potential for a few
locations to break and/or come within a few degrees of record
highs. The warm temperatures will contribute to widespread
dryness across the area this afternoon. A weak disturbance
moving aloft will lead to breezy conditions throughout the day.
The combination of warm, dry and breezy conditions will lead to
fire weather concerns across portions of southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska. As a result, Red Flag Warnings are in place
for the afternoon. Despite it being dry, cannot rule out
isolated gusty showers as the disturbance moves through. Hi-Res
guidance does show the potential for a few showers, however,
given the very dry low and mid-level, little to no precipitation
is actually expected to reach the ground if showers do develop.
Model soundings show strong inverted-V profiles, so cannot rule
out strong wind gusts in and around these showers. Showers will
dissipate later in the evening.

Similar conditions are expected for Saturday. Mild, above average
temperatures will continue across the area, with highs only a few
degrees cooler compared to Friday. Precipitation chances during the
day will be relatively low, but will increase later in the evening
as a trough over the west coast pushes vort maxes into the forecast
area. Any showers or storms that develop during the day will likely
have precipitation that makes it to the ground. Soundings still show
a dry environment so gusty winds will be a concern in and
around storms. Later in the evening, precipitation will become
more widespread and more stratiform, mainly along and west of
the Laramie Range. Soundings later in the evening show pretty
good saturation for Rawlins and Laramie, so these areas could
see decent rainfall overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

In the long term we`re finally going to see active weather as
troughing begins to take over the western US with an uptick in
moisture and instability fueled by the remnants of two tropical
systems lifting up from the Pacific. Over the weekend we`ll see
ridging breaking down and moving off to the east as two lows
overtake the West Coast, one from the north and one from the
south. These two systems will continue to merge bringing a large
and deep cutoff upper level low that will control the Western
US into the start of the work week. As flow turns more
southwesterly during the weekend, we`ll see a notable influx of
moisture overspread the region. This should begin to fuel shower
chances that will just barely move into the CWA on Saturday
ahead of a cold front which will slowly drop down across the
region through Sunday. Current forecast calls for precipitation
to struggle to move further than the high terrain through Sunday
as the bulk of the moisture remains confined further west,
bringing stronger impacts across western and northern Wyoming.
Also of note, this initial push of colder air won`t be nearly
enough to completely shut down our October masquerading as
summer, with highs on Saturday still 12-18 degrees above normal
as 700mb temperatures still remain around 10-12C on Saturday,
and then slightly cooling on Sunday with highs still 8-12
degrees above normal in the 60`s to 70`s.

Monday into the middle of the week the closed upper level low
off of California will begin to weaken by Tuesday and then
eject across the Rockies Tuesday into Wednesday, becoming
absorbed by upper level flow as another trough begins to then
develop to bring further impacts just beyond the long term.
While ridging will be able to amplify to our east across the
Mississippi River Valley, we`ll remain in a split flow between
this and the troughing to our west. The NBM brings at least a
low-end chance of some precipitation on Monday and Tuesday as
moisture remains with PWAT values slightly above normal, but
this also means our temperatures should hover where they stood
on Sunday in the 60`s to 70`s. Wednesday is when we should
finally see cooler conditions and a bit more widespread
precipitation occur as the aforementioned West Coast low ejects
across the Rockies and just south of our region. While highs
will be a few degrees cooler and near normal to the west of the
I-25 corridor, temperatures further east should still remain a
few degrees above normal in front of the cold front. But the
long term doesn`t end without a shot of colder air, as the
overnight lows moving into Thursday morning should drop into the
30`s to 40`s, with some locations getting their first freeze of
the season potentially. And with air this cool, the mountains
should finally dip low enough that snow will begin returning to
the higher terrain of the region. This could even spread down
into the adjacent valleys and lower terrain, but don`t expect
our first significant snow storm just yet as this will likely be
mixed with rain and brief for the most part. But snowy peaks
may finally be on tap as we beginning moving into the second
half of the month, and relief from our warm and dry conditions
is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions will continue across all terminals for the duration
of this TAF period. Overnight, winds remain light, generally less
than 10 knots, and variable in direction for all the sites. By late
Friday morning, winds will ramp back up with gusts 20-30 knots from
a southwesterly to southerly direction into and through the
afternoon hours. Showers, mainly staying as VIRGA, will develop and
impact KLAR and KCYS by 22Z through 04Z Saturday. In this activity,
expect gusty and erratic winds if a shower comes near or goes over
one of the aforementioned terminals.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
     WYZ417>422-425-427-432.
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
     NEZ434.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RZ