Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

592
FXUS65 KCYS 080814
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
214 AM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The High Wind Warnings has been expanded to include the
  Interstate- 80 Summit and Foothills from 3 AM this morning
  until noon this afternoon.

- Multiple, weaker cold front will push through over the next
  couple of days, leading to slightly cooler temperatures and
  increasing precipitation chances heading into the weekend.

- The first strong thunderstorms could arrive as early as
  Saturday afternoon to the western Nebraska Panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 213 AM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

High clouds are slowly filtering in across western portions of the
CWA this morning, with clear skies east of I-25. A weak cold front
is visible on low-level water vapor imagery tonight across far
northern portions of the CWA along a line from about Douglas
eastwards through Lusk. Temperatures behind the front are around 10
to 15 degrees cooler than out ahead of the front, with stout
northerly winds. This front will continue moving southward through
the morning hours, briefly turning out winds northerly and leading
to a slightly cooler day today, but minimal precipitation chances.
Very gusty winds are ongoing across the Arlington/Elk Mountain wind
prone area this morning, with gusts between 58 and 60 mph ongoing.
Strong winds may develop across the I-80 Summit and Foothills later
this morning due to subtly increasing height gradients at 700mb.
Therefore, the High Wind Warning was expanded to include the I-80
Summit and Foothills from 3 AM through noon today. The cold front
should act to limit high wind duration later this morning into the
afternoon hours.

The cold front slowly moving across this region today is associated
with an upper-level low over southern Canada with impressive
vertical stacking and strong cyclonic vorticity advection at 500mb.
The front looks to be through the entire CWA by 9AM this morning,
with northerly winds behind it. However, the 700mb low is progged to
wiggle southwards through the morning hours today, leading to
increasing 700mb height gradients across the CWA and westerly flow
along and west of the Laramie Range. East of the Laramie Range,
winds will start northerly, before flipping easterly as a diffuse
surface low over Colorado attempts to develop and the region is
placed within the easterly flow found in the northern sector of the
surface low. As a result, stout, upslope flow is expected along the
I-80 corridor this afternoon and evening. Despite the favorable
upslope flow, moisture across the area is noticeably lacking.
Forecast soundings from the RAP suggest an impressive Inverted-V
signature for much of the I-80 corridor. Therefore, virga showers
may develop today, but one again little to no precipitation is
expected to reach the surface. These showers may produce gusty and
erratic winds this afternoon. Kept about 15 to 20% PoPs in the
forecast to highlight the potential for highly isolated virga
showers, but minimal precipitation is expected near the surface.
Highs today will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s behind the weak cold
front this morning with partly cloudy skies, leading to another
pleasant day across the region.

Zonal flow returns to the region for Thursday as a broad, flat
trough moves across central Canada. An upper-level low just west of
California will slowly meander eastward, though it is currently
expected to stall briefly throughout the day Thursday as a weak
ridge attempts to develop out ahead of the trough. Isolated lobes of
500mb vorticity will eject out of the trough out west across the CWA
Thursday evening, leading to isolated synoptic ascent for portions
of the area. 700mb flow remains largely light and zonal for Thursday
as the 700mb system moves off to the east by late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning. Warm air advection will develop for
Thursday morning and afternoon, mainly along and east of the Laramie
Range, leading to warmer temperatures and increasing synoptic
ascent. A secondary, weak cold front will move through Thursday
evening, allowing for more focused synoptic ascent for much of the
area. Northerly flow will develop once again on the backside of the
front, leading to cooler temperatures Thursday night into early
Friday morning. With the incoming front, combined with warm air
advection through the early afternoon hours, multiple vorticity
maxima moving across the region, and improving PW values, more
precipitation is possible Thursday afternoon through the evening
hours. However, forecast sounding from the RAP continue to suggest
Inverted-V profiles, suggesting a higher potential for dry
microbursts and evaporating precipitation. Therefore, more is a
relative term, as a few hundredths is more than nothing, but a
drought busting event is not anticipated with the setup.
Temperatures Thursday afternoon will climb into the mid-60s to mid-
70s before the weak cold front pushes through and cools temperatures
back into the 20s and 30s Thursday night into Friday morning.

Southwesterly flow is anticipated to return for Friday afternoon as
the upper-level trough starts to push into the West Coast and digs
across central and southern California. The weak, upper-level ridge
will start to push into the CWA late Friday morning with the apex of
the ridge moving through by the early afternoon hours. Once the apex
moves through, southwesterly flow returns on the western side of the
ridge. With the strong trough across the West Coast, southwesterly
flow across the CWA will act to advect in Pacific Moisture, leading
to PW values increasing towards the 99th percentile for this time of
year, per the NAEFS Mean Precipitation Water Climatology. Multiple
500mb vorticity lobes will eject out ahead of the approaching
trough, favoring increasing synoptic ascent across the CWA for
Friday afternoon and evening. 700mb warm air advection will increase
significantly Friday morning into the early afternoon hours, with
even stronger WAA expected overnight Friday into the day Saturday
(more on this in the long term discussion below). With a surface
high over Minnesota and lower pressure west of the Rocky Mountains,
a strong surface pressure gradients will develop, leading to
easterly winds as wind flow from the higher pressure towards the
lower pressure. As a result, moist, upslope flow is expected east of
the Laramie Range, increasing precipitation chances once again.
Isolated to scattered showers and potentially a rumble or two of
thunder is expected throughout the afternoon and evening on Friday.
Once again, this does not look to be a drought busting event, but
another 0.03 to 0.10 in of precipitation is possible across the
area. Temperatures will only increase into the mid-50s to mid-60s,
with the coolest temperatures east of the Laramie Range where the
cooler, upslope flow will be ongoing as well as increasing cloud
coverage with the increased moisture and upslope flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Saturday has the potential to be the most active day of the forecast
period, with concerns for strong to severe storms increasing. Upper-
level flow will remain largely southwesterly as the upper-level
ridge continues to move eastward as the upper-level trough
approaches from the west. As the trough continues to push through,
it is anticipated to take on more of a negative tilt through the
early afternoon hours Thursday. Much of the CWA will be in the left
exist region of the upper-level jet, suggesting increased synoptic
ascent. Additionally, strong cyclonic vorticity advection is
anticipated as multiple vorticity maxima eject out ahead of the
approaching trough. A weak, 500mb shortwave will attempt to develop
with the increasing CVA across the area, leading to additional
synoptic ascent as the shortwave digs across. 700mb flow showers a
very similar story, with stout southwesterly flow increasing through
the afternoon and evening hours, with a shortwave trough developing
later into the evening, increasing height gradients and increasing
the 700mb jet. WAA is expected to continue Friday night through much
of the day Saturday, favoring lower-level support for ascent and
warming temperatures into the mid-60s to mid-70s, with the warmest
temperatures across the Nebraska Panhandle. With stout,
southwesterly flow ongoing for multiple days as the upper-level
trough digs across the CONUS, PW values are expected to increase
past the 99th percentile for this time of year, especially across
the Nebraska Panhandle. With strong synoptic support, as well as
ascent in the lower-levels, isolated to scattered showers and likely
thunderstorms are anticipated to develop across areas east of the
Laramie Range, with just isolated showers west. As of now, the GFS
suggests around 500 to 600 J/kg of SBCAPE Saturday afternoon in the
Panhandle, with forecast soundings suggesting good directional shear
throughout the lower-level of the atmosphere. Therefore, an isolated
strong thunderstorm could be possible across the Panhandle, with the
main threat likely being strong winds and possibly large hail. This
event is still several days out, but it will be interesting to see
what the HIRES models start suggesting as Saturday comes into their
domain. It will definitely be a day to watch for the first potential
strong to severe thunderstorm day of the 2026 Severe Season.

The remainder of the long term forecast will mainly feature the
upper-level trough slowly pushing through the region and daily,
isolated to scattered, precipitation chances across the region. The
upper-level trough is expected to depart from the region by mid-
week, with much cooler temperatures looking to return. Tuesday will
be the coolest day as the upper-level trough moves directly overhead
and cooler air flow into the region. However, there is some
significant disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF on exactly what
will cause the coolest temperatures Tuesday. The GFS suggests a
strong, Colorado Low bringing rain and snow back to the region
throughout the day Tuesday, while the ECMWF suggests just cooler air
associated the the trough leading to the cooler temperatures on
Tuesday. The GFS solution would give the CWA more precipitation with
stronger bands possible, while the ECMWF suggests lower
precipitation totals will less intense bands. This potential system
will need to be monitored, especially with the differences currently
seen in the longer range models.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will
lessen overnight, but pick back up tomorrow morning and
afternoon, strongest for KLAR, KRWL and KCDR. Wind direction
will also be somewhat variable at times overnight, but should
become more westerly to northerly tomorrow afternoon. Cloud
decks will be mostly mid to high level or clear, with the
lowest decks expected with any precipitation that may pass
across the region. While a chance of showers is possible, it
will be a fairly low risk overall with the best chances at KCYS
and KLAR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ110.
     High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for WYZ116-117.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...CG