Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

352
FXUS65 KCYS 191112
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
412 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High winds are expected to return to the wind prone areas
  tonight through midday Tuesday.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
  over portions of the High Plains Tuesday.

- A brief shot of cold temperatures is possible across the area
  Friday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

The latest in the train of clipper systems is slowly pushing to our
south this morning. GOES water vapor imagery shows mid to upper
level moisture over the southern tier of the forecast area, but
this is being nudged southward by drier air filtering in from
the north. With the frontogenesis weakening, the very light snow
is on a downward trajectory, and should come to an end shortly.
Most of the area is enjoying pleasantly light winds at this
hour, but sadly this break will be short lived. The persistent
700-mb jet will be back this morning. Winds will first pick up
in the higher elevations and gap areas, and then spread out to
the plains with mixing by mid to late morning. While it will be
another breezy to windy day, we will not see winds as strong as
the last several days. Today`s gusts will largely be in the 30
to 45 mph range across the area with temperatures fairly close
to seasonal averages.

Another clipper system will begin diving down  across the northern
Rockies overnight tonight. Falling surface pressure ahead of this
system will create a lee trough more or less along the I-25
corridor, which will reach peak strength Tuesday morning. In
addition to the surface pressure gradient, this clipper will take a
slightly more westerly track through the area, which will also boost
the 700-mb height gradient. Both surface and 700-mb gradients are
supportive of high winds in the typical gap wind areas beginning
tonight and lasting through Tuesday morning. Craig to Casper 700-mb
height gradients exceed 60m per the GFS Tuesday morning, and most
guidance agreeing on a 3-5mb MSLP gradient across each barrier. This
supports a fairly high confidence but not extreme wind event, but
winds should remain fairly confined to the wind prone areas. The
typical areas should see consistent gusts of perhaps 55 to 65 mph,
with a few gusts to 70 mph possible. The position of the surface
trough right along I-25 does reduce confidence for the Bordeaux
area, as the highway might be just east of the pressure minimum.
Probabilities for the I-80 wind prone areas are around 60 to 70%,
but are a little lower for Bordeaux. Still, confidence was high
enough to issue a High Wind Watch for each of the three zones
beginning at midnight and lasting through early Tuesday afternoon.

The shortwave aloft will arrive around midday Tuesday, bringing with
it a surface cold front. This will turn winds from west to northwest
and spread gusts of 40 to 50 mph across the High Plains. The
temperatures drop along the front doesn`t look too significant at
this time, but the daytime arrival will keep highs to near or just
slightly above seasonal averages. Behind the front, the threat for
high winds will decrease, but it will still be breezy to windy for
most of the area. Hi-res models are struggling with how to handle
the precipitation potential along this front (again), but synoptic
models show a narrow band of moisture and modest frontogenesis
moving into the area Tuesday afternoon. This was enough to add some
slight chances for snow into the official forecast, but
probabilities are under 25% for any individual location at this
time. As with most of these types of events this season, the ceiling
is quite low still, but we may manage to get a dusting for some
parts of the area again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Another clipper system, tracking slightly more to the east of
the first, will push over the area on Wednesday. This will bring
another reinforcing cold front through the area during the day
on Wednesday. Expect a renewed surge of northwest to north winds
behind this front, but again it probably won`t be a very
distinct temperature boundary. The upper level shortwave will
stay to our east, but similar to today`s event, we could see
some modest frontogenesis as the low-level front gets pushed up
against the mountains. Forecast soundings are pretty dry, which
will limit snowfall potential, but models are a little more
aggressive on available lifting mechanisms. The airmass is too
dry at this time to add PoPs for this period, but we will need
to keep an eye for another possibility for some light snow.
Recent model trends have backed off on the warmup potential for
Thursday, with the period between shortwave troughs just too
short to allow the ridge to re-amplify between. The strongest
cold front of the bunch has also trended faster, which could
mean Thursday`s temperatures would be quite cold instead of the
milder day it looked like 24 hours ago.

For the end of the week, ensemble guidance looks dramatically
different compared to recent forecasts. While a shot of cold air now
looks much more likely, the precipitation potential with this system
has decreased. On the synoptic scale, ensembles are now failing to
break down the persistent ridge over the Pacific northwest. As a
result, Pacific moisture remains nearly completely blocked. A closed
low stuck underneath the ridge near the southern California coast
late in the week will have a tap to the Pacific as it moves inland,
so the main question now is whether moisture from that system can
push into our area before the strong arctic high suppresses the
upper level low to the south. Only about 50% of ensemble
members have any snow at all for the High Plains in the latest
suite. Current probabilities for 1" of snow or more over the
Plains are around 10 to 20%. The lack of moisture over the top
of the ridge has also reduced the chance for appreciable
mountain precipitation, which is an unfortunate development for
our paltry mid-season snowpack. Probabilities for an inch or
more of snow in the mountains on Thursday-Saturday are only
around 50% now. About 25% of ensemble members bring moisture in
ahead of the front, and still deliver decent accumulating snow
to the mountains, but the remaining show either just a few
inches or nothing at all. The faster trend of the arctic cold
front has increased confidence in a cold day Friday, with highs
likely 10-20F colder than seasonal averages. However, the high
should begin to retreat over the weekend as the seemingly
immovable west coast ridge begins to re-strengthen.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 410 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Low clouds are lingering over the area this morning. Most of
this is between 3 and 6 kft, but each terminal will have a
chance (about 20%) to see a brief drop into MVFR. At CYS, the
cloud layer is a bit lower, pushing an SCT to BKN layer around
800 ft through the area. A temporary dip to IFR is possible.
Expect cloud cover to clear out by mid morning or so, after
which time gusty northwest winds will spread over the area
again, lasting into the afternoon. Look for gusts generally 25
to 35 knots today. These should ease after sundown while upper
level cloud cover builds back into the area.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon
     for WYZ106-110-116.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN