Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

680
FXUS65 KCYS 252350
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
550 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
  afternoon and evening will bring the potential for localized
  strong gusty winds Monday and little to no rainfall.

- Near record high temperatures possible Monday afternoon,
  mainly across western Nebraska with highs around 90 degrees.

- A stormier weather pattern will setup on Wednesday and
  continue through the remainder of the week with daily chances
  for PM showers and thunderstorms.

- Increasing potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is
  being monitored middle to late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

We remain under a ridge downstream of an open wave located over the
Desert Southwest, resulting in hot and mostly dry conditions. A
typical diurnal warm season pattern is in store for this Memorial
Day, with high-based cumulus developing over the higher terrain and
eventually developing/pushing further east over lower elevations.
These should rapidly dissipate after sunset given the loss of
daytime heating. Latest visible satellite imagery is already showing
deepening convection over Carbon County and the Laramie Range, with
radar imagery also showing some weak returns aloft. Given 850-300 mb
mean winds of just 5-10 knots per SPC Mesoscale Analysis, expect
these showers (and perhaps a lightning strike or two) to primarily
remain over the higher terrain especially given the lack of any
large-scale forcing for ascent. However, a few collapsing showers
may be able to drift onto lower elevations which will bring a threat
of erratic and gusty winds at the surface, rather than any
meaningful rainfall. This is confirmed via forecast soundings which
illustrate inverted-v profiles with surface dewpoint depressions of
40-50 degrees along with skinny MLCAPE of 300-400 J/Kg rooted around
600 mb. Given the ridging, 700 mb temperatures near 10 degC, and WSW
flow aloft, can expect high temperatures to reach 10-15 degrees
above average today (average high for Cheyenne today is 68 degrees),
with upper 70s and low 80s west of the I-25 corridor, and 80s and
even a few 90s for our Nebraska counties, which will fall just short
of record high temperatures. As for fire concerns, any dry lightning
will need to be monitored for our Nebraska counties considering
median RH values around 15%, however with maximum wind gusts around
15 mph and some recent rainfall, decided to leave out any fire
weather highlights at this time.

Tonight we will remain dry and mild, especially for our Nebraska
counties which will experience breezy conditions of 15-20 knot gusts
and partly cloudy skies, therefore limiting radiative cooling. Low
temperatures may not dip below 55 degrees, which is impressive
considering climatological lows for the Nebraska Panhandle are
around 45 degrees.

On Tuesday, the ridge axis shifts east over the Dakotas and
Southeastern Wyoming/Western Nebraska, with a closed 500 mb low
located to our west over Southern Oregon and Northern California. As
the primary vorticity maximum is located to the west of the
shortwave trough axis (and hence vorticity advection), this closed
system should dig well to our south over California and Nevada into
the middle of the week. However precipitation chances look to be
relatively low on Tuesday and just slightly greater than today,
with high- based convection being confined to the higher
terrain. With the help of SSE flow mid-level flow, hi-res
ensemble guidance has PWAT values increasing to the 90-95th
percentile relative to climatology over our Wyoming counties, so
we may (emphasis on the may) be able to squeeze out slightly
more rainfall out of any showers and storms, although forecast
soundings continue to show LCLs of 2-3 km, so gusty winds will
be the main story with these. Again, with the lack of any
synoptic-scale forcing for ascent over our area with the closed
low located well to our west, storm coverage is expected to be
primarily driven by differential heating of the elevated
terrain. Breezy conditions on Tuesday night will again keep
overnight lows mild, with lows in the 50s for the Nebraska
Panhandle and in the 40s for Southeastern Wyoming.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

For mid to late week, eastern Wyo and western Neb sit between the
large closed low anchored near the Great Basin and the amplified
ridge over the Great Plains. Low level and upper flow will primarily
be south/southeasterly through the extended period for the forecast
area. This pattern will maintain near to slightly above normal
temperatures (highs in the 70s and 80s) and periodic precipitation
chances. While the near surface flow will not be uninhibited from
the Gulf, dew points will remain around 50F east of I-25 through the
workweek, which can be sufficient for thunderstorm activity. The
core of the upper dynamics remain west of the immediate region, but
large scale ascent should extend downstream from the main low and
influence the southern Wyo ranges and adjacent areas. Perhaps the
greatest potential for widespread moisture comes Wednesday as a mid-
level shortwave traverses the High Plains. Thunderstorm activity
should increase through the afternoon, taking advantage of elevated
instability/lift and a ribbon of moisture. Thunder parameters don`t
appear to support severe weather at this time, as overall CAPE is
limited and deep layer shear is weak. Friday could be a different
story, however. The upper jet swings a bit to the east, placing the
panhandle in the sweet spot for increased lift. A surface low also
emerges from the northern Rockies, along with a notable change in
low level moisture flux over the Plains. Early indications reveal
very steep lapse rates (~9C/km) and sufficient CAPE (1000+ MU j/kg)
over the panhandle. Will need to continue to monitor later forecast
trends regarding severe potential during the afternoon and evening.
Some mechanisms remain in place over the weekend, so will hold
status quo for chance PoP and seasonable temps.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 549 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR will remain in place through 00Z Wednesday, with winds being the
primary concern for all terminals except for KRWL. Diurnal
convection should begin to wind down shortly after sunset with the
exception of KSNY which may see lingering convection move up from
Colorado colocated with 850 mb theta-e advection associated with a
35 knot low-level jet, hence the TEMPO group until 04Z. Expect SE
winds to increase after 16Z in response to lee cyclogenesis
occurring to our north over Eastern Montana, resulting in strong
gradient flow. Can expect gusts as high as 40 knots particularly for
the Nebraska terminals, with sustained winds around 25 knots.
Similar to today, another round of high-based showers and
thunderstorms is anticipated after 18Z tomorrow, which will likely
produce more rain than wind.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...NB