Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

419
FXUS65 KCYS 222358
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
558 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures will continue through the end of
  the week, but a weekend system will drop temperatures towards
  near to below average.

- Precipitation is possible this afternoon through Sunday, with
  the potential for frozen precipitation outside of the
  mountains Sunday morning.

- Near normal temperatures and a bit warmer by Tuesday into
  Wednesday, but next Pacific system will be approaching from
  the Pacific Northwest by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1232 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Short term forecast remains seasonably warm with above average
temperatures but accompanying this will be chances of
precipitation. At the upper levels, a deep low is moving inland
across California and will continue to lift northeast through
Friday. Unfortunately for our precipitation chances, this system
will see it`s energy split into two segments - the initial
cutoff low will become absorbed into troughing to the north in
Central Canada and merge with this feature, while the remnant
energy will continue eastwards and form a new cutoff low that
will be approaching the Four Corners region by Saturday morning.
This means our forecast area will sit in a split flow that
will not favor increased moisture, but we could see some gusty
winds alongside areas of showers today with Friday a bit drier.

For this afternoon and tonight, a plume of moisture lifting up
across the region with PWAT values in the 0.6-1.0 inch range
alongside some meager forcing including orographic lift will
produce areas of showers across the high terrain of our western
zones, primarily Carbon and Albany Counties. Some of this
activity may be able to make it off of the high terrain and down
into the lower elevations including portions of Platte and
Laramie Counties, but should struggle to survive much further
east than this thanks to increasing stability despite much
higher moisture values. Also of note, very weak instability is
expected across this area, which may allow for some thunder but
not much more.

Overnight and into tomorrow morning widespread cloud cover will
insulate the region and prevent lows from dropping any further
than the mid 40`s to mid to upper 50`s. While this shouldn`t
bring record warm low temperatures, this will be around 20
degrees above normal for this time of year, allowing for a
relatively muggy start to Friday morning. We`ll see this
moisture clear out however as a dry slot overspreads and mostly
removes our precipitation chances for the day. The one exception
to this will be late Friday into Saturday morning along and
ahead of a cold front that will be moving across the region
ahead of the stronger system lifting into Canada. Enough forcing
won`t be present until this feature is already halfway through
our region, but expect a chance at some scattered showers across
extreme southeastern Wyoming and through the Nebraska
Panhandle. This dry air on Friday will also drop our minimum
daytime RH values back into the 20-30% range east of the Laramie
Range, and while not critical, this will bring an elevated risk
of Fire Weather conditions alongside the other story for the
day - strong winds. While the split in flow will somehow avoid
the CWA almost fully, with a 700mb jet max both to our east and
northwest, elevated winds will be likely during the morning and
afternoon for our western and northern zones, with another
quick fork of the jet grazing our region around midnight and
increasing winds from the I-25 corridor eastwards through the
nighttime hours. The strength of this feature won`t be enough to
promote wind highlights for the region, but should bring some
gusty conditions for the time period. The aforementioned cold
front will then begin to drop our temperatures, with overnight
lows in the 30`s to 40`s as we move into the weekend where
temperatures will become below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Into the long term our temperatures will drop several degrees
below average under a colder airmass with some increasing
chances for precipitation, primarily for our eastern zones this
time, with temperatures then warming to near average by the
middle of the work week under brief clearing. The upper level
pattern will see the northern trough quickly accelerating
eastwards, leaving us under southwesterly flow aloft from a
brief finger of weak transient ridging that will quickly be
erased by low pressure slowly progressing across the Four
Corners region. This will then become our main weather feature
through Monday before finally sliding eastwards into the Central
Plains, with another transient ridge building on Tuesday that
will briefly hold the region before another Pacific low moves
into the Pacific Northwest and then starts to knock on our
doorstep by Wednesday into Thursday. Under this pattern, we
should see surface flow begin to weaken by later Saturday and
continue into the early part of next week as the strongest part
of the jet remains just south and west of the forecast area.
With this flow, the best moisture will remain just outside of
our forecast area to the east as well. That being said, PWAT
values will still be on the higher side even for our area by
around 0.15-0.25 inch, and scattered shower activity is expected
from Saturday afternoon and continuing through Monday evening
before exiting the region. The highest QPF amounts should align
with the best moisture for the southeastern portions of the
Nebraska Panhandle, but some meager moisture should occur
across most of the forecast area east of the Laramie Range.
Morning lows both Sunday and Monday could also allow for this to
mix with snow, but don`t expect noteworthy winter accumulations
at this time. As conditions finally clear later Monday into
Tuesday and the transient ridge moves in, 700mb temperatures
will warm back into the 5-8 C range, allowing surface
temperatures to rise back to near average in the 50-60 degree
range. Tightening pressure gradients from the approaching
Pacific system will start to increase westerly to southwesterly
winds again for our western zones on Tuesday and Wednesday, but
otherwise expect conditions to be a bit more uneventful as
precipitation chances dwindle outside of the high terrain for
the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 557 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Clouds continue to move into the area, but will likely not cause any
issues as CIGs will remain VFR. Cannot rule out a light shower this
evening, mainly west of the Laramie Range. If showers do develop,
visibility impacts are not anticipated. Winds are light this
evening, but will increase as winds aloft strengthen overnight.
Gusty winds are expected by mid to late Friday morning.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...SF