Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

377
FXUS65 KCYS 010521
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
1121 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected through tonight.
  Strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall possible.

- Drying and warming trend expected going into mid to late week
  with growing potential for elevated fire weather conditions,
  mainly north of Interstate 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Conditions are relatively quiet this evening across the region
with a few showers mainly across Southeastern Wyoming. This is
being driven by a weak open wave which is providing a source
for DCVA across our region. Current mid-level water vapor
imagery continues to show a plume of monsoonal moisture being
advected north and east over Southeastern Wyoming, which will
continue to push north and east towards the Nebraska Panhandle
overnight into the early morning hours before the bulk of this
weak system lifts to the northeast.

Overnight is when the strongest (albeit fairly weak) forcing for
ascent is expected. Not anticipating too much in the way of
thunderstorm activity as MLCAPE is progged to be <100 J/Kg as a
result of poor low-level lapse rates and surface dewpoints in
the low to mid 40s, but cannot rule out a rumble of thunder with
any of the heavier showers. The main threat overnight will be
localized flash flooding, mainly over portions of Carbon and
Albany Counties where the greatest collocation of total column
moisture and forcing will be, as PWAT values overnight remain
above the 95th percentile. Further, forecast soundings suggest
cloud-layer mean winds of 10-15 knots, so any slow-moving
convective elements could pose a flooding threat. Further east,
the bulk of the forcing from the shortwave trough isnt
temporally collocated with the main moisture surge. This should
limit any hydrological issues primarily east of the I-25
corridor.

Showers are expected to gradually decrease in coverage from
southwest to northeast from late morning through early
afternoon on Tuesday as the wave ejects off to the north and
east of our area. High temperatures Tuesday are expected to be
slightly cooler than Monday, which will ultimately depend on how
quickly showers and clouds depart our area. We can expect
westerly winds to remain breezy, with gusts peaking from 25-30
mph mainly east of the Laramie Range.

Tuesday night, shortwave mid-level ridging will establish itself over
the Northern Great Plains with a continuing trend of decreasing
cloud cover. Overnight temperatures will remain quite mild,
especially north of the Pine Ridge where 10-25 knot southerly
low-level flow will help to moderate temperatures thanks to
downsloping.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Wednesday...Brisk southwest flow aloft prevails. Low and mid
level moisture availability looks scant, thus POPS near zero and
negligible. Based on the low and mid level gradients, it looks
like it will be windy.

Thursday...Similar day to Wednesday with rather strong and dry
southwest flow aloft and decent and deep unidirectional
southwest flow for a windy and dry day.

Friday...The flow backs to south southwest and weakens
somewhat, with minor influx of pseudo monsoonal mid level
moisture, though confidence in shower and thunderstorms
development is negligible thus will keep it dry.

Saturday...Looks like a pseudo moisture tap will emanate up
from the Four Corners with an uptick in PWAT, Precipitable Water
Content, noted, thus expect isolated to scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms for our Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges,
with the activity spreading northeastward and remaining mostly
west of I-25 in the evening.

Sunday...Once again, the rather moist southwest flow will tap
pseudo monsoonal moisture and diurnal heating and orographic
effects will help produce scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon for locations over and near the Snowy and Sierra
Madre, and northern Laramie Ranges, with the convection
spreading across the remainder of southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska in the evening.

Monday...Ridging aloft over the Central Plains states bulges
westward across our counties, though with adequate low and mid
level moisture, we still anticipate scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are possible
this evening, lingering into the overnight hours for KAIA and
KCDR as a disturbance pushes through the area. This activity may
drop flight categories close MVFR CIGs and VIS for a short
period of time. The main aviation hazard with this activity will
be the gusty and erratic winds that accompany any storm or
shower, with speeds up to 35 knots. After this leaves the area,
there will be a lull in winds for several hours then they will
ramp back up during the daytime hours back with gusts 20 to 30
knots for the southeast Wyoming terminals. The Nebraska sites
will see winds generally less than 10 knots for the duration of
this forecast period.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WFOCYS
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...WFOCYS