Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

732
FXUS65 KCYS 281730
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1030 AM MST Sun Dec 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much colder temperatures today with well-below average
  temperatures expected through early Monday morning with low
  temperatures in the single digits possible.

- Gradual warming trend Monday through Wednesday with periods of
  very windy conditions across the wind prone areas of southeast
  Wyoming.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 AM MST Sun Dec 28 2025

Current observations across the region show that the arctic
front has progressed south and west through most of southeast
Wyoming and all of western Nebraska early this morning with
temperatures currently in the teens and wind chill readings
below zero at this hour. Arctic front responsible for the very
cold airmass is now pushing south across Colorado and central
Nebraska/western Kansas. The upper level trough axis and
secondary disturbance have not exited the region quite yet and
will likely take its time ejecting eastward. The main vort
max/disturbance is expected to briefly enhance snowfall rates
for a few hours this morning with IR Satellite showing some
cooling cloud tops over southern Wyoming at this hour. With this
in mind, increased POP from Carbon county eastward into Laramie
County and the far southwestern part of the Nebraska Panhandle.
High res guidance continues to show another band of light to
moderate snow moving along the I-80 corridor through sunrise.
May see another half inch of snow from this early this morning,
but impacts should be limited. Let most of the Winter Weather
Advisory expire for the lower elevations of Carbon County.
However, the northern Snowy Range foothills, including Arlington
and Elk Mountain, continue to show visibility down to 1/2 mile
in periods of snow. Extended this portion of the Advisory until
800 AM with Webcams in that area showing snow covered and icy
roadways and difficult travel conditions. For the mountains, the
Snowy Range was a bit of a surprise in this event with SNOTEL
sites showing over 2 feet of snow in a few places...and a
minimum of 10 inches. Therefore, upgraded the Advisory to a
Winter Storm Warning this morning as that previously mentioned
band of moderate snow moves into the area shortly, resulting in
another 3 to 6 inches of snow.

Cold day is still expected today (Sunday) as the snowfall will
gradually come to an end by the afternoon. Can`t rule out some
occasional flurries across southeast Wyoming this afternoon, but
no additional accumulations are expected. Another very cold
night expected tonight with single digit temperatures and low
teens for lows. Added some below zero readings due to models
trending a bit colder across the western Nebraska
panhandle...mainly near Alliance and Chadron Nebraska.

The only other concern today will be winds and the potential for
additional blowing snow in the wind prone areas. Models have
trended a little more aggressive with strong gusty winds across
a few of the wind prone areas this afternoon and this evening as
a lee-side inverted trough forms near the mountains in response
to the arctic front becoming a stationary front later today and
slowly moving east over the next 24 hours. 00z GFS and Canadian
shows increasing 700mb winds for a time late this morning
through this afternoon with winds as high as 60 knots. Upgraded
the High Wind Watch to a Warning for the I-80 Summit due to high
confidence in WNW winds as high as 65 MPH. Can`t rule out
Arlington either, so added the northern Snowy Range foothills to
the High Wind Watch. Not completely confident in warning
criteria, but the zone tends to do well in this pattern; in-
house wind guidance confirms this with probabilities around 60
percent. The southern Laramie Range foothills have been tricky
this year, so kept them in a Watch for now.

Slow warming trend begins on Monday as an upper level ridge
builds into the area from the eastern Pacific and 700mb
temperatures climb above -5c. Still expect a near or slightly
below average day for temperatures with highs in the 30s to low
40s. Will continue to monitor wind potential for the Wind Prone
areas late Monday night, but models have backed off on the
magnitude of low level subsidence and weaker 700mb winds
compared to the last several models runs.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM MST Sat Dec 27 2025

Not much to talk about as conditions across the CWA will be pleasant
under ridging that will slide in and dominate weather conditions for
most of the long term period. So, lets dive in a bit deeper, at the
start of this forecast period, a robust upper-level high at 500mb
sits off of the California Coast while a deep low is parked over the
Great Lakes region, this keeps dry northwest flow pouring into our
CWA. As we progress, the low over the Great Lakes slides east while
the high and associated ridge pushes across the Intermountain West
into our region by Wednesday afternoon. This continues dominates our
weather here locally on Thursday and most of Friday. Then, some
things begin to change with a shortwave diving south late Friday
afternoon. In-house guidance has a few differences in solutions,
primarily with placement and timing of this shortwave, but this is
something to watch heading into next weekend due to the possible
pattern change. At the surface, not much to write home about with
high pressure dominating, keeping weather conditions across the CWA
benign for a large chunk of this long term period. As mentioned
previously, with the shortwave aloft diving south late Friday, this
may increase chances of precipitation for next weekend. So, in the
meantime, expect these abnormal conditions to continue, especially
with high temperatures, as they soar back into the 40s and 50s, some
locations may top out in the low 60s, with the warmest temperatures
east of I-25, along with minimal to no precipitation chances. Winds,
which have been hammering our known wind prone areas over the
previous several weeks, we will get a reprieve from any major events
through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1030 AM MST Sun Dec 28 2025

With the passage of an arctic cold front earlier this morning,
precipitation has ended and skies are clearing. So, VFR conditions
will prevail for the duration of this TAF period across all
terminals. Winds will be the only aviation concern for this
forecast, west to northwest gusts will be ramping up into the
30-45 knot range through 03Z Monday. In addition, LLWS for KCYS
is possible from 04Z Monday to 12Z Monday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ110.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ116.
     High Wind Watch until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ117.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...RZ