Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

735
FXUS65 KCYS 022208
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
308 PM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures return to the region through the weekend as
  upper-level ridging returns.

- Mountain snow and high winds possible in the wind prones and
  wind prone adjacent areas of southeast Wyoming on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

A breezy day continues across the forecast area with wind gusts of
35 to 45 MPH this afternoon. High Wind Watches and Warnings remain
in effect for the usual southeast Wyoming wind prones, however, they
have not verified yet. Decided to keep them going through their
expiration time this evening as occasional wind gusts over 50 MPH
continue to occur. Winter Weather Advisories for the mountains have
verified and performed well, so these should be allowed to expire on
time later this afternoon as snow has slowed with only an inch
or two of additional snow expected. Besides wind and snow, radar
shows light returns over the CWA. Observations report light
rain under these echoes as temperatures sit in the 40s and 50s.
Showers will dissipate this evening, leading to drier conditions
overnight. Overnight lows will still be on the milder side for
early January as breezy, downslope winds continue tonight.

A rather pleasant day is expected on Saturday as upper-level ridging
builds over the Rockies. 700 mb temperatures will increase above 0C,
leading to a mild day across the forecast area. Partly to mostly
sunny skies throughout the day will add to the warmth of the day.
High temperatures out west will be in the 40s and 50s, while east of
the Laramie Range will see highs in the 50s to low 60s. This puts
highs anywhere from 15 to 20 degrees above average for this time of
year! A weak shortwave moving through the ridge overnight will begin
to usher in a bit of mid-level moisture. This, combined with
southwest flow, will lead to orographic lift in the Sierra Madre
Range, potentially leading to some light mountain snow.

With the shortwave expected to move through Saturday night, another
round of high winds will possible. A strong MSLP gradient will
develop overnight, leading to winds aloft strengthening. 700 mb
winds max out at about 65 kts with strong subsidence to bring these
winds down to the surface. This event looks to affect the usual wind
prone locations, but could also spread out to affect wind prone
adjacent areas like the Interstate 25 corridor from Casper to
Cheyenne. In-house guidance is already showing 50 to 60 percent
probabilities for high winds late Saturday night and into the
day Sunday. High wind headlines will likely be needed if the GFS
holds onto these strong winds, however held off on issuing
anything for now until the current wind headlines expire.

Sunday will be another warm day as anomalously warm air sits
aloft. 700 mb temperatures are in the 90th percentile of NAEFS
climatology. These temperatures, combined with warm downsloping
winds will lead to highs in the 50s to mid-60s east of the
Laramie Range. Temperatures will remain similar to Saturdays
highs out west as increased moisture and cloud cover keep
temperatures more stable. Cannot rule out a few showers in the
high valleys out west during the day, as well as some light
mountain snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

Models are in firm agreement with an upper level low off the coast
of California pulling the gradients aloft to a southwest flow Sunday
night through Monday before flattening and becoming westerly flow
aloft Wednesday. This will bring in some moisture advection from the
southwest and west with snow returning to the mountains. Snow will
persist across the Sierra Madres and Snowy Range through Tuesday
with higher accumulations in the Sierra Madres. Raw ensembles show
70-80% probabilities of 7-8 inches of snow in the Sierra Madres and
near 3 inches of snow in the Snowy Range beginning Monday afternoon
and persisting through Tuesday afternoon. Models show surface CAPE
values of up to 500 J/kg so, not only will there be snow, but
deterministic guidance also shows 15% probabilities of thunderstorms
across the Sierra Madres between 11 AM Monday through 5 AM Tuesday.
Snow will continue through Tuesday afternoon at 11 PM with another
round of accumulations of 3-4 inches along the Sierra Madres with 55-
65% probabilities.

Models show a break in precipitation as the upper level flow turns
westerly before becoming southwest again Wednesday and bringing in
more moisture from the southwest through Friday night. In-house
guidance shows snow accumulations from 11 AM Wednesday through 5 PM
Friday to be near 11 inches along the ridge line of the Sierra
Madres and near 6 inches along the Snowy Range. Guidance also shows
the lower elevations could see a skiff of snow as well with 45%
probabilities even this far out.

Winds will remain slightly elevated Monday through Wednesday as the
700 mb jet makes slowly makes its way to the east and winds turn
more to a southwest flow aloft. 500 mb winds will drop from 70 kts
to around 40 kts which will continue to allow mixing at the surface.
However, not nearly as strong at the last few events. In-house
guidance show winds to be elevated as apposed to high. Raw ensembles
shows winds will be primarily diurnally driven with peak gusts
between 30-35 mph with some locally higher gusts in some isolated
locations (70-80% confidence) As for the areas east of Laramie
Range, winds will also be diurnally driven with peak gusts between
25-30 mph and 60-80% confidence. After Wednesday, models begin to
diverge and show at least some sort of southwest flow aloft. Raw
ensembles and in-house calculations all show the winds to remain
diurnally driven and below 25 mph at the surface Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1003 AM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

MVFR conditions are lingering around KRWL and IFR at KCDR due to
low CIGs of 1500 ft at KRWL and 500 ft at KCDR. Models show
these conditions to remain at KRWL through 21Z and 19Z for KCDR.
However, timing on the CIGs lifting is difficult to pin down so
confidence is low on timing (20-40%). All other TAF sites are
VFR and will remain as such through the period.

Winds at KCYS are being difficult, with the cloud cover
overhead, winds are not quite mixing down. Winds are currently
VRB06 with the chances of gusts to near 12kts occurring. Winds
at KCYS are expected to increase around 04Z (30-50% confidence
in timing). Winds remain breezy at KLAR/KRWL/KSNY and are seeing
winds between 15-18 with gusts to near 30 kts and are expected
to settle to below 12 kts this evening. KCDR and KAIA are 12kts
and below and will remain as such through he period.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ106-117.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ110-116.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     WYZ112-114.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...WFOCYS