Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

004
FXUS65 KCYS 291202
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
600 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest winds will increase Monday, bringing the potential
  for critical fire weather conditions over the High Plains and
  a brief period of high winds in the wind prone areas.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue for much of
  the week ahead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 410 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Active night and early morning over the northern Nebraska
Panhandle with several severe thunderstorm over Sioux, Dawes,
and Box northern Box Butte Counties late last night up until 2
AM this morning. Confirmed ping pong ball (1.50") to hen egg
(2.00") hail over Chadron State Park with unverified reports of
larger stones. This activity has since pushed further northeast
into South Dakota leaving breeze conditions in its wake. Quiet
weather expected through sunrise this morning with increasing
clouds to the west...ahead of the potent upper level trough
which is expected to produce critical fire weather conditions
and possibly strong winds over portions of southeast Wyoming
today into this evening.

Based on IR Satellite loop analysis, the base of the potent
upper level trough is currently moving across northeast Utah,
noted by the distinct comma shape. This feature is expected to
quickly push east northeast into Wyoming over the next 6 to 12
hours. Temperatures are already pretty chilly in the Utah
mountains with snow likely falling across the peaks. Expect some
brief periods of snow for our higher mountains this morning
where a dusting up to a half inch of snow accumulation is
possible, before quickly melting by this afternoon. As this
potent trough lifts northeast, winds are expected to rapidly
increase out of the west or northwest. Pretty impressive surface
gradient with this system, which will drive the wind gusts up
to High Wind criteria for a time today and result in hazardous
fire weather conditions (please see Fire Weather Forecast for
more information). In-house wind guidance remains cautious with
this event, still showing between 35% to 50% probability for
high winds between 8 AM and 3 PM. Extended the High Wind Watch
to include eastern Platte County with in- house wind guidance
taking a noticeable trend upward for Coleman compared to the
last few runs. 700mb winds have come down some, but the surface
gradient still looks good through noon. The best chance for
precipitation with this trough will be across Carbon county near
the mountains with low elevation rain showers and maybe a few
rumbles of thunder. A very dry airmass will spread across most
of the area, which should greatly limit any convection for much
of today. Kept POP near zero through most of today and this
evening. Not as warm today, with highs in the 60s to mid 70s
west of Interstate 25 and across east central Wyoming. Somewhat
warmer further southeast with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
east of Interstate 25. Cool and dry airmass will likely result
in some of the high valleys west of I-25 to dip down into the
30s tonight for overnight lows (Laramie Valley, Shirley Basin,
and upper North Platte River Valley. With very dry air, don`t
think frost will be a problem at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Tuesday, The upper level low will be lifting off to
the east back into the Northern Plains and Canadian providences as a
strong ridge over the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard begin to build.
By the late evening on Tuesday another weak shortwave will push
through the Intermountain West following the parent low moving into
Manitoba. There will be a few lobes of vorticity to play with as
this wave moves through but it looks as though all the forcing and
shower potential may lie only in the Panhandle area. As we progress
past Tuesday we become stuck in Southwest flow on the front side of
this ridge. The warm, dry, but smokey air from the Desert southwest
and the Colorado/Utah fires will be filtering over the area for the
remainder of the week. This will limit our rain chances as this dry
air removes all the moisture from the surface and lower dewpoints
and RH values. The models have a few shortwaves pushing into the
region past Tuesday but with no moisture and very limited forcing
there isn`t much confidence these waves will do anything beside
increase our gradient and produce the normal amount of wind through
our area. Fire weather will be the biggest concern as our fuels will
enter a curing state once again despite our stormy 7 days last week.
Winds will be light to marginal so it may be difficult to reach Red
Flag criteria for most of our area despite the low RH and curing
fuels. There is a trough that is suppose to move through 4th of July
weekend that the models are trying to figure out so we may get some
rain but the Intermountain West would need a pretty big trough to
dig through the four corners region for anything substantial to
reach the ground. So we shall see how the models trend but the 4th
may just be as dry as the rest of the week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Potent storm system will lift northeast across the area today. Very
little precipitation expected as the trough axis moves across the
area, but winds will quickly increase after 14z this morning and
continue into this evening...possibly into the late evening hours.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail today and into
tonight. Primary Aviation concern will be windy to very windy
conditions across most terminals with KSNY seeing breezy conditions
and lower wind gusts compared to the other terminals.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for WYZ417>419-430>433.
     High Wind Watch from 8 AM MDT this morning through this
     afternoon for WYZ106-107-110-116.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MDT this morning through this
     evening for NEZ434-435.
     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for NEZ436-437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TJT