Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

022
FXUS65 KCYS 170510
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1110 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A very strong cold front will sweep through the area between
  the late afternoon and evening hours today, bringing rapidly
  dropping temperatures and an abrupt wind shift.

- Snow squalls and a flash freeze will be possible this evening,
  primarily in Carbon and Converse counties.

- Widespread snowfall is expected this evening through Friday,
  though exact accumulations remain uncertain.

- Winter-like temperatures in the teens to low 20s are expected
  by Saturday morning, creating a risk for outdoor irrigation
  and sensitive vegetation that has emerged from winter dormancy
  early.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 311 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Lower level water vapor shows the cold front slowly working its way
southeast past the tetons and bighorns. Surface observations put the
front just past Gillette and into the Black hills area and picturing
a diagonal line it runs Northwest of Casper and runs east into the
Wind River Reservation going of where the northerly winds and higher
RH values are. The strongest moisture plume also looks disconnected
and behind the actual front itself. So the heavier snowfall may be a
little later than what Hi-res Guidance is suggesting. However, Hi-
res guidance shows a stronger pressure gradient along the front as
well as some stronger Isentropic lift as well. Guidance also agrees
that there will some strong frontogenesis and multiple lobes of
vorticity both along and behind the front. This combination of
mesoscale and synoptic forcing should produce some light brief rain
as it rapidly lifts what marginal moisture we have in our area up
into the air. It should be enough to lightly wet ground and roadways
as the front moves southeast. The cold air behind the front should
rapidly flash freeze any wet pavement creating a slick icy surface.
This should also transition any light rain showers into snow
showers. Snow squalls are a possibility as the Northerly winds look
to remain elevated between 25 to 35 mph. So if snow showers do
develop, some greater reductions to visibilities will occur with
possible whiteout conditions. By Friday morning the front should be
pushing through into Colorado. By then the main trough will be
pushing through increasing the synoptic forcing across the forecast
area. The main bulk of the snow will come from the trough passage.
Snow accumulations look to be between 4-6 inches near the mountains
with 1-3 inches in the valleys in Carbon and Southern Albany county.
Along the I-25 corridor looks to be 1-3 inches with the higher
amounts closer to the higher elevations. In the "far eastern"
counties including the eastern portion of Laramie county and the
Nebraska Panhandle. Snow accumulations look to be between a Trace
and 1 inch. Due to the ground temperatures being pretty warm
initially, snow accumulations may be less due to snow melting on the
ground and taking a minute to cool down and starting to accumulate.
Snowfall looks to end Friday night.  700mb temperatures drop down to
-13 to -15c behind the trough dropping our high temperatures
 into the 30`s in Southeast Wyoming and possibly 40`s in the
 Nebraska Panhandle for Friday`s high temperatures. The cold
 airmass with reside over the Intermountain West until about
 midday Saturday. Friday Night will be the coldest of the week
 as widespread teens and low twenties across the forecast area.
 Saturday, An upper level ridge will start to push into the
 Intermountain West. Temperatures look to rebound into the 40`s
 and 50`s on Saturday thanks to the combination of a "summer-
 like" sun and the cold airmass pushing east. THe intermountain
 west will still be in a northerly flow so temperatures will be
 slow to rebound, but temperatures Saturday night looks to be in
 the mid twenties with a couple areas possibly reaching the low
 thirties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The long term period will begin under a high amplitude mid-level
ridge resulting in dry conditions with above-average temperatures,
translating to forecast highs in the mid to upper 60s east of the
Laramie Range with 50s further west. Longwave ridging will remain in
place over Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska heading into
Monday, resulting in median 700 mb temperatures exceeding the 95th
percentile for our entire area per LREF guidance. While this won`t
translate to record-breaking high temperatures at the surface (76
degrees is the record for Cheyenne, recorded back in 1989), we will
continue to see anomalously warm temperatures of 15-20 degrees above
climatology. Mean 700 mb flow looks to be rather relaxed at around
20 knots, so high wind highlights aren`t anticipated at this time.
This is supported by in-house random forest guidance which has the
wind-prone areas at < 20% probabilities of meeting high wind
criteria. However with ensemble guidance showing 75th percentile
wind gusts exceeding 20 mph and RH values of 15-20%, fire weather
highlights may be needed as we get closer to Monday. Any beneficial
moisture we can get from the system on Friday and earlier in the
weekend would help mitigate these concerns.



Tuesday, the ridge axis will be situated over the eastern half of
Wyoming with 500 mb heights exceeding the 90th percentile relative
to climatology. Unsurprisingly, this will be accompanied by another
day of high temperatures around 20 degrees above-average. In fact,
some of our Nebraska counties will likely exceed 80 degrees. On
Wednesday the ridge axis will shift east of Wyoming and Western
Nebraska ahead of a closed 500 mb low, placing us in broad SW mid-
level flow. While large-scale forcing for ascent appears rather
weak, ensemble guidance is hinting at a narrow band of enhanced 700
mb frontogenesis east of the Laramie Range. This mesoscale forcing
for ascent will become more clear and quantifiable in future
forecasts, however in combination with PWAT anomalies around the
90th percentile, a chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
seems appropriate at this time, most likely confined to the higher
terrain. Thursday will continue to be unsettled, however
temperatures look to remain above-average as we remain in a SW flow
regime.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1108 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Complex forecast tonight as snow showers slowly spread across
the area with cloud decks dropping into the MVFR to IFR
categories overnight. Snow showers have started at KRWL as of
the 06Z TAF issuance and are expected to slowly spread eastward
overnight. IFR conditions likely under the heaviest snow bands,
with ceilings dropping at or below 1000ft AGL and visibility
dropping around 1 to 3 miles. Snow continues overnight and
through the early afternoon hours. A rain/snow mix may develop
across the Panhandle terminals as temperatures slowly warm
tomorrow. However, poor conditions expected to continue through
the late afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Friday for WYZ101.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT Friday for WYZ103>105-
     109>111-113.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AM