Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

776
FXUS65 KCYS 260517
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1117 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions and record warmth continue
  through Wednesday evening.

- A cold front arrives on Thursday with a cool-down in
  temperatures through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Record warmth continues over southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska this Wednesday afternoon. Most observation sites east
of the Laramie Range are at or above 80 degrees, with mid to
upper 80s reported in Scottsbluff, Sidney, and throughout much
of the Nebraska Panhandle. Daily record highs will be shattered
by at least 10 degrees at nearly all climate sites today, with
temperatures coming within a degree or two of the March monthly
record temperatures, many of which were just set this past
Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions with RH well below
15% and wind gusts over 25 mph are also common throughout
southeast Wyoming and into southwest Nebraska. The current Red
Flag Warning highlights continue in all but the high mountain
zones through 8-10pm this evening.

Despite the extremely dry weather and record warmth, there
remains a slight chance of showers and possibly some thunder
late this afternoon and early evening. While upper-level forcing
is almost nonexistent, the extremely hot surface temperatures
should breach convective temperatures late this afternoon even
despite such high T/Td surface spreads. Forecast soundings show
a slight increase in mid and upper-level moisture around peak
heating and a few scattered high-based convective clouds can
already be seen on GOES visible satellite imagery as of 20z.
Most CAM guidance does show initiation of a few isolated very-
high-based showers around or slightly after 0z in the southeast
NE panhandle as well as far southern Wyoming. While confidence
is fairly high that showers will form, any precipitation will
have to fall through a deeply mixed surface layer. Most, if not
all of the shower activity should evaporate before it reaches
the ground however an isolated 0.01" of rainfall or so can not
be ruled out along the I-80 corridor, especially in southwest
Nebraska. CAM guidance also indicates around 100-300 J/kg of
CAPE in the mid-levels, perhaps enough instability to generate
some thunder. Any isolated cloud to ground lightning could
result in fire starts, so we will have to monitor any convection
closely.

Attention turns to the next weather event, a cold frontal
passage, which will dive south through the high plains on
Thursday. The front will reach the northern zones including
Douglas and Chadron before sunrise, and will slide southward
through BFF, SNY and eventually CYS by early afternoon. This
front will bring a sharp drop in temperatures and a dramatic
increase in surface RH values. Low stratus behind the front will
develop through the evening as east to northeasterly upslope
flow sets in. Another reinforcing front will move through on
Thursday night into Friday morning, which will cool things down
even more and enhance upslope flow. Isolated stratiform showers
and drizzle will be possible in the southern Laramie Range and
perhaps along the Cheyenne Ridge on Thursday night through
Friday morning, however HREF ensemble QPF does not amount to
more than a few hundredths of an inch.

High confidence exists for much cooler weather from Thursday
night through Saturday morning. In fact, high temperatures on
Friday will end up around or perhaps even a degree or two below
average behind the frontal passage. This will feel like quite a
shock to the system after such warm weather over the past
several weeks (and months), however much of the area should only
be in the low 50s for highs in late March! Temperatures will
quickly rebound on Saturday as ridging returns aloft and the
shallow post-frontal surface layer is mixed out. With a dry and
warm airmass in place, there is high confidence in near-record
warmth this weekend once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

- Sunday will be dry and mild. Increasing chances for showers will
occur for Monday through Wednesday as a weather disturbance and cold
front approach the forecast area.

Saturday night-Sunday...The warming and dry trend continues as the
flow aloft backs to westerly, inducing surface lee trough
development across our forecast area. 700 mb temperatures near 9
Celsius will produce maximum temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s.

Monday...Continued mild as the flow aloft remains from the west.
With some low and mid level moisture, we may see isolated to widely
scattered late day showers.

Tuesday...As a shortwave trough aloft and its associated cold front
pass by the forecast area, high temperatures will decrease into the
60s to mid 70s. Looks like enough low and mid level moisture to
combine with frontal lifting to produce scattered showers, most
numerous near the Colorado state line.

Wednesday...Even cooler in the wake of the Canadian origin cold
front. With broad troughiness across the forecast area and
increasing low and mid level moisture, we will see scattered to
numerous showers develop.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Isolated to scattered showers are ongoing across much of
southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. These showers are
expected to remain weak, but a few may produce a few flashes of
lightning and claps of thunder. Showers slowly dissipate through
the overnight hours. A cold front will sweep through the area
early this morning, leading to wind shifts and lowering
ceilings. Precipitation with the frontal passage is expected to
be fairly minimal at the terminals. Gusty winds are expected as
the front moves through and after the front passes for a few
hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...AM