Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

032
FXUS65 KCYS 161155
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
455 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Watches have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings for
  most of south central and east central Wyoming. High Wind
  Watch has been extended east to include all of the southeast
  Wyoming plains and portions of far western Nebraska.

- Critical to Extreme fire danger expected starting Tuesday
  morning and continuing through Tuesday evening.

- Moderate to heavy mountain snowfall is expected from Tuesday
  through Thursday this week, mainly above 8500 feet. A Winter
  Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.

- Snow squalls possible west of the Laramie Range Tuesday
  morning with the passage of a cold front.

- Snowfall is possible over the Plains Wednesday into
  Thursday, followed by temperatures falling below seasonal
  averages for the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Active weather to start off the week with several potential
hazards expected through Tuesday night: including critical to
extremely critical fire weather conditions, strong winds, snow
squall activity and heavy mountain snow, and even a few thunder
showers Tuesday afternoon across Carbon and Albany counties.

For most of today (Monday), a pretty quiet and tranquil day
before the Pacific cold front and associated upper level
through moves towards the area tonight. Observations early this
morning show periods of gusty winds approaching 55 MPH to the
lee of the higher mountains ranges. This is likely in response
to some mountain wave activity with models still showing
locally strong subsidence mainly along and west of the Laramie
Range. Thankfully, winds aloft are behaving so far with speeds
likely below 45 knots...so locally strong winds over 60 MPH are
not expected early this morning. After a brief lull in the winds
around sunrise, winds will increase from west to east through
the day today and likely become strong tonight. Mid to high
level cloudiness has continued to push across the area,
resulting in early morning temperatures in the mid 40s in some
areas. The coldest temperatures early this morning have been
across western Nebraska with lows as low as 20 degrees reported
so far. With a warm start to the day for most locations, can`t
rule out a few more records to drop this afternoon. However,
record highs for February 16th are several degrees higher
compared to the last several days. Regardless, afternoon
temperatures should range from the upper 50s to upper 60s today.


STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

Models continue to show the strong Pacific cold front moving
towards central Wyoming and into Carbon/Albany counties by
around sunrise early Tuesday morning. Winds ahead of the front
are forecast to start increasing as early as late Monday
evening/around midnight for Carbon county as pressure gradients
aloft quickly increase and mountain wave activity develops. This
front is expected to quickly push across the area and likely be
around the I-25 corridor around sunrise. Models and ensemble all
show 700mb winds rapidly increasing to over 60+ knots with
excellent surface pressure gradient along the frontal boundary.
High confidence of strong wind gusts in this area from multiple
sources, including but not limited to: boundary layer mixing,
BORA-like flow behind the front, potential snow squall activity,
and mountain wave activity. With this in mind, decided to
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning for all of Carbon,
Converse, Platte, and most of Albany counties late tonight
through late Tuesday evening. Expect periods of strong wind
gusts between 60 to 70 MPH with brief lulls in between. The only
exception may be the I-25 corridor from Bordeaux, Coleman, to
near Douglas, which may have a more sustained event due to
persistent mountain wave activity and very strong boundary layer
subsidence. In fact, some of these locations have the most
favorable conditions to see gusts over 75 MPH as models show
700-600mb winds peaking around 75 knots early Tuesday afternoon.

Further east, models have become a little more consistent with
peak wind speeds into the western Nebraska panhandle Tuesday and
Tuesday evening. Therefore, extended the High Wind Watch
eastward to include a few western Nebraska counties (Sioux,
Banner, and Kimball). Confidence is still limited due to cloud
cover and subpar low level subsidence, but it looks better
compared to yesterday, especially with the developing surface
low to the northeast. May need to include the rest of the
western Nebraska panhandle if model trends continue.

Otherwise, with strong winds across the area and very dry
conditions, fire weather concerns are high for mid February. SPC
has added portions of the high plains to the extremely critical
fire weather category. Residents and drivers need to take this
seriously since any ignitions will likely spread rapidly as
grasses are very dry with winds over 60 MPH possible. Issued a
Fire Weather Watch for all of the eastern plains along and east
of Interstate 25. Started the Watch early in the morning due to
forecast low humidity recoveries as low as 20%.

MOUNTAIN SNOW AND SNOW SQUALLS

Current high res guidance shows a good chance for snow squalls
and/or bands of heavy snow with strong environmental winds
between 200 AM and 800 AM early Tuesday morning. Model soundings
show a decent amount of low level CAPE, around 100 j/kg, with
all models indicating very good frontogenesis/low level forcing
moving across the area. Looks like high res guidance has picked
up on this and continues to show bands of snow squalls moving
across Carbon and Albany counties early Tuesday morning. Do not
expect this activity to make it much past the I-25 corridor due
to strong downslope winds. The only limiting factor for snow
squall activity is moisture, which will be lacking for this
event. Another round of snow showers expected Tuesday afternoon,
mainly near the mountains. With decent instability for this
time of the year and CAPE values climbing to 100 to 300 j/kg in
the afternoon, added some thunder showers for Carbon and Albany
counties, including the mountains. Speaking of the mountains and
high peaks, persistent upslope flow will start after midnight
tonight/early Tuesday. Expect some brief breaks in the snowfall
at times, but the GFS and NAM show high and persistent Omega on
the windward side of the Sierra Madre Range that lingers through
Thursday. Not the best wind direction for the Snowy Range, but
will monitor snowfall rates since they can be tricky. For now,
upgraded the Sierra Madre Range to a Winter Storm Warning for
heavy snow and periods of blowing/drifting snow. Would not be
surprised to see some amounts near 3 feet or higher by midweek.

By late Tuesday night, all models show the winds easing down
after sunset and fire weather conditions quickly improving
behind the cold front. Kept the High Wind Warning going until 11
PM for I-25 corridor and may need to adjust the timing of the
High Wind Watch/Warning further east to account for the
redevelopment of strong winds (this time out of the WNW or
northwest) behind an area of rapid surface cyclogenesis over
the Dakotas late Tuesday night. Expect this surface low to move
quick to the east later Tuesday night with decreasing surface
pressure gradients over the area. Attention will then shift to a
potential widespread snowfall event in the Medium Range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

A train of progressive troughs moving across the Rockies from the
Pacific this week will keep active weather continuing through Friday
or Saturday, before mild weather and ridging begins to make a return
by Sunday.

On Wednesday morning, the area will be in between systems as the
first wind storm moves out across the northern Plains. The second
trough will be another powerful Pacific trough rapidly moving inland
during the middle of the week. Cloud layer RH and mean wind show
moist orographic lift continuing in the mountains even in between
the troughs, suggesting there may not be much of a break in mountain
snowfall, though rates will certainly decrease for a period of time.
Much of the area should see a break from the winds Wednesday morning
with a reduced cross-barrier height gradient setting up in between
troughs. In addition, the departing first trough will drop a surface
high pressure over the Montana plains, and the edge of this features
will try to creep into our northern zones. While we are not
expecting this to manifest as an actual arctic frontal boundary for
our area, the increased surface pressure spreading down the I-25
corridor should help provide at least a temporary break from the
strong winds. The strong subtropical jet streak out ahead of the
primary trough moving across the Great Basin on Wednesday will have
noticeable diffluent flow aloft, supporting rapid pressure falls
just in the lee of the mountains during the day and evening on
Wednesday. Winds will gradually increase through the day again,
particularly west of I-25, as surface pressure falls and lee
cyclogenesis occurs. Expect to find a stalled frontal boundary
somewhere over the area, which as of now appears most likely to set
up along the North Platte River Valley. North/east of this boundary,
we will see lighter upslope flow, while stronger south to southwest
winds can be expected south/west of the boundary.

The primary surface low is expected to develop over northeast
Colorado (a rare positioning for this winter season). However, a
secondary surface low over southwest or central Wyoming will keep
southwest winds in place over Carbon, Albany, and possibly Laramie
county, keeping winds elevated here. We will have the low-level
upslope flow in place north of the stalled boundary, and forcing
aloft looks to improve Wednesday afternoon and evening as isentropic
lift kicks up in advance of the approaching trough. This system will
be quite progressive, and thus the window for snowfall is not very
long, but we have several lifting mechanisms present including those
mentioned above, plus vorticity advection aloft, and strong
frontogenesis. This will help spread snowfall out into the High
Plains Wednesday late afternoon into early Thursday morning.

This system has the potential to be the first widespread
accumulating snow event of the year, but some portions of the
forecast area will still probably miss out once again. Highest
confidence in impactful snow accumulation (in addition to the
mountains) at this time is along the US-20 corridor from Douglas to
Chadron, and along the I-80 corridor in Carbon county. Based on
ratios of about 15:1, the median ensemble member has over 2" of snow
falling in both Douglas and Chadron with about 25% of members over
4" of snow. Further west, there is medium confidence in snow impacts
too, but the characteristics will be different. The isentropic lift
and thus the stratiform valley snowfall will probably not make it
into Carbon county, but forecast soundings show very steep lapse
rates through the entire troposphere near Rawlins Wednesday
afternoon. In addition, strong mechanical forcing is expected as the
secondary surface low over central Wyoming gives into the primary
low over northeast Colorado. As this occurs, expect rapid increases
in surface pressure as the frontal boundary sweeps in from the west.
As a result, Wednesday will probably bring another chance for
convective snow showers and possibly snow squalls to Carbon county.
Snowfall in Laramie will depend on the ability of the convective
snow showers to continue east of the Snowy Range, which is a little
more uncertain than Rawlins. Probabilities for 1" of snow are around
40% at this time. The I-80 corridor from Cheyenne eastward is the
most likely area to miss out on this snow event. Southwest winds in
the early phases of the event transitioning to westerly winds later
are rather unfavorable. There is a scenario supported by about 25%
of ensemble members with a stronger, more southerly upper level
trough which would allow for the isentropic lift to set up further
south and include the Cheyenne area, but this is not the most likely
scenario at this time. Median 24-hour QPF for Cheyenne is only
0.02", which would just be a dusting to a half inch of snow. The
model mean is skewed somewhat by a small handful of high outliers.

Once the upper level trough axis swings through late Wednesday
evening, we will see rapid dry air advection into the I-80 corridor,
along with another increase in wind speeds. Due to the cold front
and surface high pressure over the High Plains, this round of wind
will likely be confined to areas west of I-25 (though can`t rule out
gusts of 60+ mph creeping into the Cheyenne area). In-house guidance
is depicting around a 50% chance for high winds in the Arlington/Elk
Mountain and I-80 summit areas Wednesday evening into early Thursday
morning. Expect a cold and windy day on Thursday, which could lead
to blowing snow concerns in areas receiving snowfall on Wednesday
night. However, the probability for high winds is fairly low (10%
for the High Plains).

Models are beginning to pick up on one final trough in this train
moving through the area around the Friday or Friday night time
period. This one looks weaker than the two preceding systems, and
without as strong of a moisture tap to the Pacific. Nonetheless,
recent ensemble guidance is trending a little bit more aggressive on
precipitation, primarily for the mountains. This may bring another
chance for some light snow over the Plains and strong winds in the
wind prone areas in its wake. Ensembles are in good agreement
showing strong ridging beginning to build back into the area by
Sunday supporting another warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 455 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Upper level trough and Pacific cold front will move towards
southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska today. Winds will begin to
increase this afternoon for most southeast Wyoming terminals, with
relatively light south winds expected for terminals along and east
of Interstate 25. Mid to high clouds will continue moving east over
the area through tonight.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail with southwest
winds gusting up to 35 knots at times late this morning through this
afternoon. Pacific cold front may start to impact KRWL with lowering
CIGS and snow after 06z Tuesday, so added PROB30 group for a low-end
chance of IFR conditions and heavy snow.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon
     for WYZ417-418-430>433.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for WYZ102-108-119.
     High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 11 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ101-
     106-107-115.
     High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST Tuesday
     for WYZ104-109.
     High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ105-110-
     111-113.
     Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 AM MST Thursday
     for WYZ112.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Wednesday
     night for WYZ114.
     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for
     WYZ116>118.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon
     for NEZ434>437.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for NEZ020-054-095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...TJT