Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

178
FXUS65 KCYS 272119
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
319 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stormy weather pattern will setup later this week,
  continuing into the weekend with daily chances for
  afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms could be possible Friday and
  into the beginning of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

The upper-level pattern remains stagnant with a 500 mb low spinning
over California. The placement of this low will lead to a relatively
stormy pattern over the next few days, with the CWA in southerly
flow, allowing for access to Gulf moisture. The increased moisture
will fuel storm activity, with stubborn vorticity maxes over the
area triggering storm initiation. Current radar this afternoon shows
a few light showers over the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges. These
showers will continue for the western zones through the afternoon.
There are also showers over the eastern plains of Colorado that are
moving northward towards the Nebraska panhandle. Hi-Res guidance
does show some of these showers and thunderstorms creeping into the
Interstate 80 corridor between Cheyenne and Sidney this afternoon.
Showers and storms will be short lived as the environment has very
little shear to sustain storms. The environment is also not
conducive for severe weather with only a few hundred joules of CAPE
present across the CWA. For the most part, storms will be done by
sunset, leading to a quiet overnight.

Thursday will be almost the same as Wednesday, with fairly spotty
coverage of showers and storms. Hi-Res guidance does show some
isolated storms developing in the far eastern Nebraska panhandle as
well as the high terrain of southeast Wyoming. The environment looks
a little better in terms of instability and shear, although likely
still insufficient for any severe storm development. There will
likely still be a good amount of CIN thanks to a stratus deck that
will develop Wednesday night and stick around through much of the
day Thursday. The stratus deck could limit storm development,
depending on if/when clouds can clear out of the area. Although
storms will be fairly isolated, coverage of storms will likely
be a bit greater than Wednesday, with some lingering showers
possible overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

An active, but very messy, pattern is in store for southeast Wyoming
and western Nebraska through the mid-term and long-term forecast
periods. Upper-level troughing will broadly be the dominant upper-
level feature throughout the next week or so. Starting Friday, an
upper-level trough and low will dig across Nevada and Utah, taking
on a stout negative tilt by Friday afternoon with strong southerly
flow throughout the atmosphere across the CWA. The NAM suggests
between 2500 and 3200 J/kg of MUCAPE across western Nebraska late
Friday afternoon into the early evening hours, but minimal to no
shear to support the significant CAPE values. Therefore, organized
storms may be difficult to reach. However, forecast soundings from
the NAM across the southern Panhandle suggests Precipitable Water
values of 1.2in, SBCAPE values of 3600 J/kg, and DCAPE values of 840
J/kg all suggest the potential for wet microbursts across western
Nebraska, if storm initiation can occur. As of this forecast
package, the biggest question for this set up will be whether there
is enough forcing with the upper-level trough digging through and/or
the 500mb vorticity lobes ejecting across the region, as well as the
possibility of remaining capped all day due to low-level overcast
cloud coverage. For now, a brief period of convection capable of
producing wet microbursts is possible Friday afternoon into the
evening hours before capping looks to return across the region.
Uncertainty is fairly high at this time, due to the capping element
as well as the uncertainty in sufficient lift across the region.
However, there is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather
on Friday across far southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska.

The upper-level low will continue to impact the region through
Saturday through Tuesday due to the messy evolution of this upper-
level system. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest the upper-level low
closing off on Saturday and rotating northward along the Rocky
Mountains before a secondary low pushes into the Pacific Northwest.
This low will rotate across the region and head northward before a
more defined trough develops Monday night into Tuesday and finally
moves off to the east by early Thursday morning. With some version
of troughing or upper-level lows across the CWA for multiple days,
it is looking to be a fairly wet next several days with daily
chances for afternoon showers and storms. Additionally, upper-level
trough will keep surface temperatures quite comfortable with daily
high temperatures Friday through Wednesday in the 70s and low-80s
for all locations across the CWA. 700mb flow will largely see some
for of troughing or 700mb lows throughout the next week or so,
further supporting daily shower and storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Wed May 27 2026

Gusty winds are ongoing across western Nebraska and southeast
Wyoming and will continue through the evening and overnight
hours. Highly isolated showers and storms are possible this
afternoon, with KCYS and KLAR having the best chances at seeing
rain and storms at the terminals. Included PROB30s for most
terminals, due to lower confidence in specific terminals being
impacted. Isolated showers and storms may produce gusty and
erratic winds and will continue through the late evening hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM