Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

151
FXUS65 KCYS 301754
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1154 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances are expected through the rest of this
  weekend and later on Monday. Strong to severe wind gusts will
  be possible Sunday, with moderate to heavy rain possible
  Sunday and Monday.

- Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday with strong
  gusty winds up to 65 MPH possible.

- Drying and warming trend expected going into mid to late
  week with growing potential for elevated fire weather
  conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Another active day is in store for us mainly across Southeastern
Wyoming, as another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
to develop across Carbon and Albany counties early this afternoon
before pushing east. Our area will be located in the right-entrance
region of a 90 knot 250 mb jet streak rounding the base of a potent
negatively-tilted shortwave trough, setting the stage for large-
scale forcing of ascent and more widespread coverage of convection.

Current visible satellite imagery shows quite a bit of convective
debris from showers and even a few thunderstorms during the
overnight hours. This should limit diurnal heating and hence
destabilization into the afternoon which will put a restraint to the
threat for large hail in any thunderstorms, which is similar to what
we experienced yesterday. This is also confirmed via poor mid-level
lapse rates (6-7 degC/km) as suggested by high-resolution ensemble
guidance thanks to all the convective overturning. The primary
threat will be damaging winds with any storms with forecast
soundings showing inverted-v profiles and DCAPE values around 1000
J/Kg as a result of large surface dewpoint depressions and cloud
bases around 2.5-3.0 km AGL. Further, any areas that do manage to
experience some clearing and therefore heating and mixing will have
the potential to mix down higher momentum air from the speed max
aloft.

Today also features a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as noted
by WPC, putting us in a level 1 of 4 risk for flash flooding. While
surface moisture is rather meager with dewpoints in the mid to upper
40s across Southeastern Wyoming, overall total column moisture is
more impressive, with PWAT values ranging from the 85th-95th
percentile (around 0.9"), so heavy rainfall will be a threat. Due to
the stronger flow aloft and forecast soundings indicating a cloud-
layer mean wind of around 35 knots, showers and thunderstorms should
move at a decent clip, so the flooding threat will largely be
dependent on back building and training convection, primarily over
urban areas. High temperatures today will remain around climatology
for this time of year east of the Laramie Range with temperatures
peaking around 80 degrees along the I-25 corridor, and upper 80s
throughout the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection should come to an end
this evening as the shortwave trough lifts to the northeast,
limiting overall synoptic-scale forcing.

Monday will remain somewhat active as we remain on the western
periphery of a rather flat 596 dam mid-level ridge, placing us in a
southwesterly flow regime. This will allow for another surge of
monsoonal moisture with PWAT values above the 90th percentile.
Ensemble guidance shows another negatively-tilted trough lifting
north and east out of the Four Corners region, placing us in a
region of DCVA. HREF guidance isn`t exactly excited about high
rainfall totals, with probabilities of exceeding 0.1" of rainfall
sitting between 10-15% mainly west of the I-25 corridor. Certainly
see the potential for heavy rainfall with storms, however cloud-
layer mean flow around 30 knots will keep storms moving and the
flooding threat will be limited in areas of training and back
building convection. Model soundings again are hinting at the
potential for downbursts with any of the stronger cores given the
lack of low-level moisture. Highs on Monday will be similar to
today. Convection is expected to linger well into the overnight
hours especially over the Nebraska Panhandle where the bulk of the
forcing remains as the open wave lifts north and east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The long term period will feature a warming and drying trend as mid-
level heights rise over our region and the bulk of any forcing for
ascent remain to the north or west of our area. Tuesday will feature
a slight chance of late day showers and storms as moisture remains
trapped underneath the ridge and we remain in SW flow pattern (PWAT
around the 70-80th percentile), however coverage is expected to be
lower relative to today and Monday. High temperatures will again
remain close to climatology, with highs in the 80s east of the
Laramie Range and mainly 70s out west.

We begin to heat up on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge axis
becomes focused closer to the Northern Great Plains. This will turn
our attention to potential fire weather concerns as long-range
ensemble guidance has signals for gusty winds and daytime RH values
ranging from 15-25% especially north of the I-80 corridor. Highs
will peak in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees west of the Laramie
Range on both days, with much of the Nebraska Panhandle soaring into
the low to mid 90s, which is still a few degrees short of record
highs.

As we end the work week and head into the weekend, the ridge begins
to amplify and establish itself over the Central and Southern Great
Plains, resulting in a containing trend of above-average temperatures
and primarily dry conditions. There are some signals of an
additional push of monsoonal moisture on Saturday and Sunday,
however confidence isn`t high enough at this time to mention any
widespread precipitation for the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated through the forecast
period, although scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
present some aviation weather concerns. The greater coverage of
the showers will be across eastern WY, and higher wind gusts
will accompany this activity. Confidence in impacts is too low
to include tempo groups for the northern NE panhandle. Most
showers should wane by 31/03z, and winds primarily turn light
and variable for the NE terminals. Slightly breezy west winds
will continue overnight for WY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...DS