Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

863
FXUS65 KCYS 222001
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
201 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will carry through Memorial Day weekend, with
  near record high temperatures possible by Monday.

- Isolated high-based showers and storms will be possible each
  afternoon over the long weekend, but rainfall will be
  limited.

- Potential for thunderstorms and rainfall will increase Tuesday
  and continue through much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Cool and breezy conditions prevail today across the area in the wake
of yesterday`s storm system. Currently, satellite imagery shows a
tight circulation of cloud cover associated with the departing upper
level low moving across South Dakota this afternoon. Further west,
another weak vort-max is pushing into western Wyoming, which will
lead to increasing cloud cover along the I-80 corridor this
afternoon and evening. Gusty northwest winds will gradually weaken
over the next several hours and then drop off around sunset. Despite
the light winds, the increased cloud cover should keep overnight
lows a touch warmer tonight compared to last night. Still, we`ll
have another chilly night with mid 30s to low 40s over the High
Plains and temperatures between about 32 and 36 degrees for the
valleys of Carbon and Albany counties. We could see some limited
frost formation in southeast Wyoming, particularly around Laramie,
but this should be fairly limited. As such, frost and freeze
headlines were not issued for tonight.

This weekend, broad troughing will gradually be replaced by ridging
over the area, initiating a warming trend. For Saturday, expect
highs generally near seasonal averages in the 60s and 70s. Surface
winds turning westerly will drop dewpoints and thus decrease
relative humidity. Breezy conditions can be expected in southeast
Wyoming. Despite the drier surface layer, we still expect to have
decent moisture in the middle to upper atmosphere. This should allow
for the development of isolated high-based shower activity in the
afternoon and early evening hours. This may produce a few rumbles of
thunder and locally gusty winds, but rainfall potential will be
limited. Sunday looks overall fairly similar to Saturday, though high
temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer. This will lead to
elevated fire weather conditions across much of the area with RH
dropping below critical thresholds. Breezy conditions will continue,
but currently winds should stay below critical thresholds where the
fuels are ready to burn. Moisture aloft will continue to increase as
a messy vort-max moves into the area. This should help initiate
another round of isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon and early evening hours, but again, rainfall potential
looks fairly limited. Slight chance PoPs were introduced over NBM
guidance for both Saturday and Sunday, with Saturday`s chances
concentrated over the High Plains, and Sunday`s chances focused a
little further west. The warmer pattern coming up should allow us to
leave the chilly overnight lows behind for a while, with lows
expected to be in the 40s or warmer (of course, excepting the
mountains and probably Laramie) from Saturday night onwards.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

By Monday the synoptic pattern starts to shift as the
global models have come to agreement (sort of). Previous model runs
treated the synoptic setup as one low pressure system pushing into
the Baja California region with another northern system to pushes
into the Pacific Northwest. Now the global models all show this as
more of a deep reinforced trough from the Low pushing into the
Pacific Northwest. This will still push us into a southwest
advecting in some moisture from the Pacific and some dry air from
the downsloping winds off the mountains near the surface Monday into
Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon the low pressure system gets close
enough to send a shortwave as a catalyst to another wet pattern.
Thanks to our summer sun, the synoptic set up of this deep trough
will lead to decent destabilization of the atmosphere and produce
scattered thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening. This bowling
ball of a low looks to roughly get temporarily cut off from the
synoptic as a quasi-omega block begins to setup over the CONUS
region. An area of high pressure appears to sit over the Northern
Plains region while Lows sit and spin over the Nova Scotia region
and the West coast. While the low from the West coast parks itself
over Nevada it will send  with corresponding shortwaves
through the intermountain west for almost daily chances for
precipitation through out the week and possibly the rest of this
month to finish out our wet month of May.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

There is a cumulus field that will be setting up and moving
through region throughout this evening and into the overnight
period. I`m expecting the higher based clouds over Idaho/Montana
area to move through the area later tonight. Right now the
clouds range from 4,000ft to 10,000ft and they aren`t expected
to go too much lower as the lowest cloud in the region is
roughly 3,500ft. So VFR conditions are expected to remain
through the TAF period. Scattered light showers will be possible
after 18z but due to wind direction being from 230 to 270
tomorrow, Virga may be more likely.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MM