Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

951
FXUS65 KCYS 251139
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
539 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record high temperatures are expected to begin today and
  continue through Monday.

- Widely scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms with
  potential for strong gusty winds are expected today and
  tomorrow.

- Another surge of monsoon moisture will arrive Monday,
  increasing rainfall chances for the early part of the work
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Hot temperatures will be the primary near term concern. The powerful
upper level ridge over the Four Corners states continues to amplify
this morning, setting the stage for near record heat today and
tomorrow. 700-mb temperatures analyzed this morning appear to range
from about +16 to +18C across the area, but this is expected to warm
by a few degrees Celsius over the day, peaking between +18C and +20C
late this afternoon. The heat wave will peak on Sunday, with NAEFS
mean 700-mb temperatures near or over +20C for much of the
area. Friday`s highs ended up several degrees warmer than
forecast, and the heat aloft strengthens further today. The 5000
ft elevation contour will provide a pretty good estimate of
where to expect temperatures over 100 degrees today. Look for
100s at elevations below about 5000 ft, and 90s at higher
elevations. The lowest elevation locations around the Chadron
area will see highs over 105 and possibly even approaching 110
degrees (20% chance). Sunday`s highs will be similar if not a
degree or two higher than today. In addition to the hot daytime
temperatures, we will really struggle to cool down overnight
over the next few days, especially tonight. A modest low-level
jet in the Nebraska panhandle may keep downslope southerly winds
off the Pine Ridge all through the night, keeping temperatures
in the upper 70s or higher all night. Because of this, northern
Sioux and Dawes counties were both upgraded to an Extreme Heat
Warning for daytime high temperatures between 105 and 110, and
overnight lows between 75 and 80 degrees. Heat Advisories remain
in effect for remaining areas of the High Plains through
Monday. Monday should be a few degrees cooler than Sunday, and
thus more marginal for heat headlines. It is possible the heat
headlines could be expired early as the latest forecast keeps
Monday`s highs in the 95 to 98 percentile range rather than 99+
as it is for Saturday and Sunday.

One uncertainty with the high temperatures both today and tomorrow
will be increased potential for convective activity. GOES satellite
imagery this morning shows a subtle upper level shortwave
rotating over the top of the powerful ridge. Higher middle to
upper atmosphere moisture content is apparent with this feature
on water vapor channels. Vorticity associated with this feature
will move across the area this afternoon and evening, providing
lift in the place of modest high-based instability. High-
resolution models have trended more aggressive with coverage of
this activity this afternoon. The NBM continues to be far too
low, so PoPs were increased midday through midnight today. The
highest probability for high-based shower and thunderstorm
activity is north of a Cheyenne to Alliance line. Forecast
soundings show quite decent moisture content in the mid to upper
atmosphere this afternoon, such that NAEFS mean PW values are
actually near the climatological 90th percentile. Still, this
will be on top of a deep and very hot inverted-v sounding in the
boundary layer. So, while true dry thunderstorms are not
expected, the wind is likely to be more notable than the
rainfall today. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has
included much of our High Plains in a Marginal Risk for severe
wind gusts with the dry (ish) microburst threat. Increasing
cloud cover and some cooling associated with evaporation of the
falling rainfall may keep highs a few degrees cooler than
forecast in a few locations, but it is tough to say exactly
where this will occur.

Modest forcing in place of weak elevated instability will likely
keep some shower activity going well into the evening hours today.
This will actually provide an excellent setup for heat bursts this
evening. After sundown, a very shallow surface inversion will
develop with a well-mixed layer perhaps just 100-200m above the
surface. Downdrafts associated with dissipating showers and
thunderstorms could then actually lead to an increase in surface
temperature this evening after the shallow inversion develops. Don`t
be surprised to see a few locations seeing gusty winds and
temperatures above 90 degrees between 8PM and midnight tonight.
Sunday will also bring a chance for high-based showers and
thunderstorms but synoptic forcing looks a little weaker, which will
probably lead to lower coverage compared to today. Gusty winds with
potential for heat bursts continuing well into the evening will be
the primary concern once again tomorrow.

By Monday, the upper level ridge will shift ever so lightly off to
the east of the Four Corners, allowing for an improved tap of
monsoon moisture to surge northward. This will increase chances for
locally heavy rainfall and perhaps a few isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms with the typical PM scattered showers and
thunderstorms. However, NBM probabilities look a little too
aggressive at this time, and were toned back to PoPs around the 40
to 60% range for most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Ensembles are in fairly good agreement showing PW peaking on Tuesday
across the area with the latest monsoon surge. Rainfall chances will
remain elevated as the powerful ridge recedes ever so slightly.
While we are not expecting temperatures to fall below average, we
should see the heat ease to slightly more reasonable values only
about 5F above seasonal norms by Tuesday. This will be the theme for
much of the weak beyond Tuesday as 700-mb temperatures remain
generally in the +16 to +19C range. On the synoptic scale, the
powerful ridge will begin to retrograde westward and also broaden
its horizontal extent. The result of this is a reduction in the
quality of the monsoon moisture plume as the week progresses.
Recycled moisture trapped underneath the ridge will continue to
produce daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
onwards, but expect PW to decrease gradually each day with a little
lower overall thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

South to southwest winds will develop by midday with gusts to
around 20 knots expected. Look for scattered high-based showers
and thunderstorms to develop across a wide portion of the area
during the afternoon, with multiple rounds expected through the
late evening hours. While the primary hazard with this activity
will be microburst winds, lightning, and brief VIS drops do to
rainfall are also possible. By mid-evening, expect thunder to be
less common, but gusty showers may continue until nearly
midnight. Timing remains difficult to pinpoint as this activity
will be disorganized and will come with multiple rounds. PROB30
groups were narrowed somewhat with this update. Most gusts will
be in the 25 to 40 knot range, but a few isolated wind gusts
exceeding 50 knots are possible near showers and storms.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT Monday for
     WYZ101-102-107-108-118-119.
NE...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT
     Monday for NEZ002-095.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT Monday for
     NEZ003-019>021-054-055-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN