Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

135
FXUS65 KCYS 242306
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
506 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through
  the end of the week with slightly above average temperature
  expected.

- Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may produce strong
  gusty winds over southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska
  through this evening.

- Near average temperatures through Wednesday, with a slight
  warming trend late this week and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 311 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Radar analysis as of this afternoon shows a few weak echoes
beginning to show up in Carbon and Albany Counties, with a weak
cumulus field across the CWA. MLCAPE is currently topping out
around 500-1000 J/kg, strongest in the eastern counties of the
Nebraska Panhandle, while pockets of bulk shear around 30 knots
exist mostly east of I-25. Forecast soundings continue to show a
well defined inverted V signature. At the surface, a cold front
lies just outside of our CWA and is very slowly descending into
the area. We have a mixture of expectations out of convection
today. While some high based and possibly dry storms or virga
bombs will be possible farther west, some activity could be
strong enough to produce precipitation, and with the expected
slow moving nature of these storms, there`s a marginal risk we
could even experience excessive rainfall from any storms that
do produce precipitation. Moving further east into the better
environment however, we`ll see a higher risk of both
precipitation and stronger thunderstorm activity developing,
particularly into the evening hours across the Nebraska
Panhandle. All activity will present a risk of strong to severe
wind gusts, with a more notable threat of hail for activity
across the Nebraska Panhandle in the Slight Risk.

Moving into Tuesday another shortwave is expected to promote
further chances of showers and storms for the day. While the
better ingredients for stronger to severe storms will begin to
depart to the southeast and leave us much weaker for the day,
our excessive rainfall risk will remain as storm motions will be
slow under weak flow aloft, but for Tuesday it should be much
more limited to around the Colorado border and southwards. All
of this will be due to the cold front continuing to descend down
into Colorado, which will assist in also "cooling" temperatures
across the area. While not nearly the stout cold front we would
hope for to get more fall-like weather in action, we should
descend several degrees and see highs close to average, though
still on average around 1-3 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

An active long term weather pattern looks to be
taking shape. At the upper levels, a strong ridge takes hold of the
Western United states limiting our overall wind shear potential
through the weekend. Between the two low pressure systems progged to
move along the Canadian border, our ridge will limit their influence
somewhat, but continued light monsoonal moisture advecting into the
area will make it interesting. The overall forecast will be pretty
much the same thing will about a 40 percent chance of storms in the
afternoon and evening across the area and breezy but calmer
mornings. 700mb temperatures look to stay between 13 and 17C meaning
the daily high temperatures will be in the 80`s for Southeast
Wyoming and 90`s in the Nebraska Panhandle especially towards the
end of the week. There will be a cool down as showers and
thunderstorms move over an area so some relief will occur for those
who aren`t a fan of the summer heat. The Wyoming wind will also
start to make an appearance later this week. While not quite high
winds yet (except under thunderstorms). The normal afternoon breezes
will steadily become a little stronger Friday afternoon and into the
weekend. These winds are induced from the slightly tightened
pressure gradient as an upper level trough pushes against our ridge
about as well as dragging anything across sand paper. So expect
breezier conditions especially in the mountains west of I-25 and
along I-80.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 505 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

A cold front will move south over Wyoming into the Nebraska
panhandle this evening. This will bring the area multiple lines of
showers and the possibility of thunderstorms. Strong gusty winds are
the main concern with these storms. Some storms may bring gusts to
60 knots later this afternoon through evening (00Z to 06Z). VFR
conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Another
round of storms are possible tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...ML