Blair, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

965
FXUS63 KOAX 122037 CCA
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
337 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog may develop again late tonight into early Wednesday
  morning, mainly along and east of the Missouri River.

- A complex of thunderstorms may move into portions of northeast
  Nebraska late Wednesday night and may be capable of strong to
  locally damaging wind gusts (20-40% chance).

- Heat and humidity builds through the end of the week with peak
  heat indices of 100-105 degrees Friday and Saturday.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return Saturday night
  through early next week (20-40%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

A cold front/surface trough axis continues to gradually drift
across the area this afternoon turning winds northerly in its
wake. Either side of this boundary temperatures have still
managed to warm into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. A stray
shower or two can`t be ruled out along the boundary but most
areas will remain dry. Expect any remaining diurnal cumulus to
erode with sunset with winds easing as surface high pressure
becomes established in the wake of the departing mid-upper
trough.

While it may not have as great of coverage as the past couple
of nights, the combination of light to near calm winds, clear
skies, and residual low-level moisture will set the stage for
yet another night of fog development for portions of the area.
The best potential currently favors areas along the Missouri
River and east into Iowa. Locally dense fog can`t be ruled out
but confidence in this remains low.

Southerly winds will return on Wednesday as the surface high
shifts east of the area with high temperatures in the 80s again.
We will have to keep an eye on a cluster of storms that may
move across South Dakota associated with a very weak mid-level
wave during the day on Wednesday but at this time it looks like
it should remain north of the state line and be relatively weak.

A stronger shortwave currently moving into Wyoming will eject
off the Rockies on Wednesday with an associated complex of
thunderstorms expected to develop and move across far northern
Nebraska and South Dakota late Wednesday through Wednesday night.
There remains a signal that this activity could move into
portions of the area after midnight (potentially in a decaying
state). Accordingly, the latest SPC Day 2 outlook recently
expanded the severe potential (threat Level 1 of 5) further
into northeast Nebraska, mainly northwest of an Ord to Norfolk
to Vermillion, SD line. The main threat with these storms are
strong to locally damaging wind gusts in addition to frequent
lightning and heavy downpours.

The upper level ridge will continue to build across the region
late week which will bring a return to hot and humid conditions.
Forecast high temperatures both Friday and Saturday are in the
upper 80s to mid 90s with peak afternoon heat indices in the
100-105 degree ranges.

As is often the case after a period of warmer weather, the
pattern turns more active early next week as the upper ridge
attempts to flatten out. This will lead to periodic shower and
storm chances (20-40%) as multiple disturbances round the ridge
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

- Potential for reduced VSBYs in Fog/BR again early Wednesday AM

A cold front is slowly drifting south across the area this
afternoon. Expect light southwest winds at OMA/LNK to turn
northerly behind the front around 19-20Z. There is a narrow
axis of SCT to BKN 2500-3000ft cumulus along the front so tossed
in a FEW025 mention to account for it, but it should be fairly
short-lived. Dry conditions are currently forecast through the
TAF period, with the better potential for a stray shower or
storm this afternoon being east of the terminals.

Winds become light and variable after sunset with expansive
surface high pressure overhead. The calm winds and clear skies
will set the stage for another potential round of fog
development late tonight into early Wednesday morning,
currently favoring areas along and east of the Missouri River.
Opted to introduce MVFR VSBYs in a TEMPO at OMA where guidance
is most consistent in fog development. IFR or lower VSBYs may
need to be considered if confidence increases. Any lingering fog
should erode within a few hours of sunrise on Wednesday with
winds returning to a prevailing southeast direction by mid to
late morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petr
AVIATION...Petr