Blair, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

416
FXUS63 KOAX 111921
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke concerns return to the area as southerly winds advect it
  in from the Flint Hill in eastern KS. Nebraska state agencies
  have issued a smoke advisory for all of eastern Nebraska
  Saturday through Sunday morning.

- Warm and breezy conditions are expected through the weekend,
  which will create very high fire danger.

- Low (20%) rain chances Saturday night and Sunday night, with
  slightly better chances (25-35%) Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

It has been a beautiful day. Sunny skies and light winds with
temperatures in the 60s for most areas at 2 pm. GOES19 has
detected numerous fires out there today as farmers and ranchers
likely take advantage of ideal burning conditions with the light
winds.

Those surface winds do turn southeast and eventually south
overnight. The southerly winds increase to 20 to 35 mph during
the day Saturday. This will allow smoke from Flint Hills KS
burning to move back into the region. After coordination with NE
state agencies we did transmit a smoke advisory for the weekend
at their request, with air quality reaching moderate and
possibly unhealthy for sensitive groups at times. The southerly
gusty winds will help to boost high temperatures in the middle
70s to lower 80s. The southerly flow will also help boost
surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 40s, but will still
create minimum relative humidity down around 25 percent. This
will create very high fire danger, but conditions remain /just/
above red flag conditions, thus will not issue a red flag
warning at this time.

There is a cold front that will move into northeast NE Saturday
night. This could bring spotty showers to the NE/SD border
region, but most of the models also keep the air dry. Low
temperatures south of the front will still be quite mild in the
lower to middle 50s.

That front sweeps through the forecast area Sunday, switching
winds from south to northwest. The cold air lags the front, so
highs Sunday should still reach the lower 70s to lower 80s from
north to south. Northwesterly winds 20-35 mph Sunday will also
help create another day of very high fire danger, but will also
help sweep out any smoke that moves in on Saturday.

There is a weak short wave move out of the Central Rockies
Sunday night, which could bring spotty showers to southeast NE.
Low temperatures Sunday night back into the lower to middle 40s.

Monday should see highs back to normal in the lower to middle
60s. Breezy northwest winds and dewpoints back into the lower to
middle 20s will help to create yet another day of very high fire
danger with minimum afternoon humidity down to 20-25%. This day
might actually have the better chance for meeting red flag
conditions.

Northwest winds continue Tuesday with lighter speeds at 10-20
mph. Highs should reach the middle to upper 60s. While humidity
will be low around 20%, the lighter winds will help mitigate
fire weather concerns.

Temperatures boost right back to the middle to upper 70s
Wednesday. The GFS continues to suggest a decent chance of
showers Wednesday, but the ECMWF remains dry. We do need some
rain, but confidence is low for this midweek system.

Another cold front is forecast into the area on Thursday. This
brings another 20% chance of rain, but confidence remains pretty
low on whether that occurs.

And then Friday looks dry and windy again with a northwest wind
at 20-35 mph, with highs back into the 60s. And it could be
another fire weather day. Tis the season.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions through the period with winds the primary
concern. Winds less than 12 knots at TAF issuance, but turn to
the southeast and increase to 12 knots by 12/9-11z, and then
20-30 knots by 12/14z. There could also be a period of LLWS at
KOFK and possibly KLNK 09-14z with winds at 1500` from the
south at 40 knots.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...DeWald