Aurora, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

280
FXUS63 KGID 162103
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
403 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty thunderstorms late this evening into tonight, with a
  marginal risk for severe storms over southeastern portions of
  the area. The primary risk is hail, and the main timeframe is
  11pm to 3am tonight.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for northern Kansas on
  Thursday. Please refer to the Red Flag Warning product and
  the fire weather section below for more information.

- Another round of thunderstorms is expected Thursday afternoon
  and evening. Severe hail and wind are both possible with these
  storms, especially near and north of I-80. The main timeframe
  is 4pm to 10pm Thursday.

- There are additional chances for showers and thunderstorms
  through the weekend, but the main threat for severe weather is
  expected to remain well to our southeast.

- Cool through the weekend with patchy frost possible,
  especially Friday night and Sunday night.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Currently, skies are mostly clear with only some thin cirrus and spotty
cumulus development to our west. Southerly winds have allowed
most of the area to already reach the 80s as of 3pm...a very
mild day for mid April.

Most of the evening will remain dry, but spotty thunderstorm
development becomes possible late this evening and tonight with
a developing low-level jet. This will focus over southeastern
portions of the area. As mentioned above, the primary threat
will be hail (as is typical for nocturnal, elevated convection).
Instability...on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg...is not "off the
charts" by any means. But this instability, combined with deep-
layer shear in the 40-50kt range, would support a few marginally
severe storms, mainly southeast of a line from Phillipsburg, KS
to Geneva, NE.

Thursday will be another warm day for most of the area (80s for
most...low 90s in KS), although an approaching cold front may
keep far northwestern spots a bit cooler than today. Deep mixing
south of a northeastward-moving dryline will lead to very low
humidity and critical fire danger in northern KS (and possibly
into far southern Nebraska).

By mid to late afternoon, attention will shift to another round
of thunderstorms initiating as an upper trough moves over the
central/northern Plains. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty of exact convective details...but the main focus
will be near the cold front moving into the area. Strong shear
(40-50kts effective), coupled with modest instability and lift
from the upper trough will likely in severe hail/wind in some
of the storms that develop. The main question is coverage...with
some CAMs (notably HRRR) showing only a brief window for storms
in our far northeast, and others (NAMnest, for example) showing
slightly more scattered coverage over a larger portion of the
area.

Friday will be cooler with a breezy northerly wind. Chances for
rain and thunderstorms continue through the weekend, but the
primary threat for severe (along with the best chance for
widespread rain) will remain to our southeast. The GEFS and EPS
both trended downwards on rain totals through the weekend...not
good news for those looking for some relief from the recent
dryness.

Much of the are is expected to see overnight lows in the 30s
through the weekend. Exact details are dependent on cloud cover
and still somewhat uncertain, but patchy frost and even some
subfreezing temperatures are possible. Of course this isn`t
uncommon in mid April, but this should be monitored closely by
anyone that has already fired up sprinklers or has outdoor
plants.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for much of the day. There will be a
chance for a few showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm
from 06-09Z. Otherwise, south winds will transition to the west
through the forecast period with a cold front coming from the
north. Winds beyond the forecast period will shift to the
northwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Thursday will be a quite warm day for most of the area, and
portions of northern Kansas may see humidity dip below 10
percent during the afternoon. Winds are a bit more borderline,
but at least occasional gusts in the 25-30 MPH range are
expected in this area. As such, the Fire Weather Watch was
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.

A cold front moves through Thursday night, ushering in breezy
north winds and cooler temperatures for Friday.

The fire weather threat then remains on the lower side through
the weekend with afternoon temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Wekesser
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels