Alliance, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

353
FXUS65 KCYS 141145
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
445 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for much of southeast
  Wyoming and western Nebraska Sunday.

- High winds are possible Tuesday for most of Southeast Wyoming
  and western Nebraska. Fire weather concerns possible early
  next week.

- Colder and more active weather pattern expected after Tuesday
  with a good chance of snow late Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Current KCYS radar loop shows a few light rain/snow showers
across far southeast Wyoming and the southern Nebraska Panhandle
early this morning. Observations across this region show very
little, if any, of this precip reaching the ground with only a
few light sprinkles reported. Kept Isolated to scattered wording
in this morning`s forecast, but this activity will likely shift
east and diminish over the next 3 hours. A pretty nice day is
expected Saturday with high temperatures in the 50s to around
60 across the high plains, and remaining in the mid to upper
40s west of Interstate 25. Wind should be relatively light with
occasionally breezy winds across the wind prone areas.
Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are expected as models show a
ridge axis nudging into the central Rocky Mountain region for
the weekend.

For Sunday and Monday, upper level ridge axis will push over the
Front Range and then slowly drift east into the High Plains by
Monday afternoon. Dry weather will continue with POP near zero
each day. 700mb temperatures will continue to increase on Sunday
with models showing temps between 0c to 3c during the day. With
slightly better/deeper boundary layer mixing (compared to
December), record high temperatures are expected across
southeast Wyoming and portions of western Nebraska. Current
record highs for the date are in the mid 60s across western
Nebraska, and around 50 for Rawlins and Laramie. Expect several
of these records to be broken. However, there is some concern of
forecast cloud cover Sunday afternoon, which may result in
slightly cooler temperatures with breezy conditions through the
day. Pretty confident that most locations should come within a
degree or two of their record highs for the day. Similar
temperatures are expected on Monday, but record highs for that
date are warmer compared to Sunday (70s for several climate
sites). In addition, expect a south wind to develop on Monday
which will likely result in slightly cooler temperatures along
the Laramie Range, Pine Ridge, and Cheyenne Ridge.

As for winds, the main event will likely be Tuesday. However,
models are showing a clear mountain wave signature Sunday
afternoon with pretty strong downward Omega on the lee-side of
the Sierra Madre, Snowy, and even the Laramie Range. In-house
wind guidance is showing some elevated winds along and west of
the Laramie Range, but all models show 700mb winds no higher
than 45 knots...and not much higher than that aloft. Kept windy
conditions with gusts up to 45 MPH for now, and will continue to
monitor over the next 24 to 36 hours in the event winds aloft
trend higher.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Primary forecast concern for the Medium to Long Range portion of
the forecast will be Fire Weather and the possibility of strong
gusty winds on Tuesday. All models show a potent shortwave
trough lifting northeast across the area Tuesday morning
colocated with a Pacific cold front. It will be very dry out
ahead of this front as morning high temperatures in the 60s are
expected across the eastern plains with the potential for wind
gusts over 60 MPH ahead and behind the front. This may lead to
brief, but significant, fire weather concerns before the front
finally moves across the high plains by early to middle Tuesday
afternoon. However, confidence is limited due to the narrow
window of opportunity and forecast cloud cover.

The other concern is the potential for widespread High Wind
event across not only southeast Wyoming, but western Nebraska
as well. Models show 700mb winds between 60 to 65 Knots along
and east of the Laramie Range. Winds over the wind prone areas
and the high valleys of southeast Wyoming will likely be earlier
in the day with preferred west to southwest wind direction
early in the day. The eastern plains, including western
Nebraska, will likely be later in the day and post-frontal out
of the west or northwest. Good model agreement with this
potential outcome so far, so increased winds and gusts. doesn`t
look like the strongest wind event of the season, but it looks
solid due to strong 800mb to 600mb downward Omega/subsidence
peaking between 600 AM to 300 PM Tuesday. In-house wind guidance
is suggesting some locations, such as Bordeaux and Coleman,
seeing wind gusts as high as 75 MPH due to a Bora-like wind
event in addition to local mountain wave activity. Other
locations are not as high and may be fighting some cloud cover.
Regardless, believe most locations have a good chance seeing
wind gusts over 60 MPH. Will likely need a High Wind Watch over
the next few days for Tuesday morning and afternoon if models
remain consistent. Some precipitation is expected for the
valleys, but should be confined to the Laramie and upper North
Platte River Valley. Further east, little if any precip is
expected due to strong downslope winds. Kept some mention of
light rain/snow for the northern Nebraska panhandle and east
central Wyoming which will see the least amount of downslope
given their terrain and location. The mountains should do well
with this system due to strong upslope across the Sierra Madre,
and to a lesser extent the Snowy Range. Already have over 1 foot
of snow in the forecast for those locations and expect those
numbers to increase given current model trends.

Otherwise, a bit of a shift in the overall weather pattern
expected after Tuesday with all models showing a Long Wave
trough settling into the western half of the United States. The
best chance of snow we`ve seen in a while appears to be late on
Wednesday and Thursday as slow moving shortwave trough rounds
the base of the long wave trough and lifts northeast across
Colorado and near the Wyoming border. May see widespread
accumulating snow, but amounts do appear on the light side at
this time. Otherwise, temperatures will lower to near or
slightly below normal for this time of the year with daytime
highs in the 30s to low 40s and low temperatures in the teens.
Colder pattern is expected to linger into next weekend with
additional chances for snowfall.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 445 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Some patchy fog possible early this morning for southeast Wyoming.
otherwise, an upper level ridge axis will push over the Front Range.
Clearing skies and pleasant weather expected into this evening with
relatively light winds for most terminals.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours. There is still a slight chance of some fog for KLAR and KRWL
early this morning before 15z. However, the potential is quickly
dissipating with sunrise approaching. Otherwise, northwest winds
will occasionally gust to 25 knots at KSNY, KCYS, and KRWL through
this afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for WYZ417-418-428>433.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...TJT/RZ
AVIATION...TJT