Shelby, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

474
FXUS65 KTFX 070528
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1028 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Strong winds will continue along the Rocky Mountain Front
   through the weekend with the strongest winds expected on
   Sunday.

 - Periods of strong winds are possible along the Highway 200
   corridor on Saturday with more widespread and stronger winds
   expected across the region on Sunday.

 - Mountain snow and lower elevation rain/snow mix is possible
   through the weekend with periods of unsettled weather expected
   to continue through the next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 837 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026/

No significant changes to the forecast through the rest of
tonight. Favorable conditions for enhanced winds along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mtn front develop tonight with the high wind
warning going into affect there later in the overnight period.
Similar conditions could bring more localized strong winds to
portions of Judith Basin and southwest Cascade county by Saturday
morning with a lower likelihood of strong wind development in
Fergus county which will be evaluated overnight for changes to the
current high wind watch that goes into effect Saturday morning.
A more widespread and impactful wind event is on track for late
Saturday night through Sunday across a large portion of north-
central and central MT. A notable point about the Sunday wind
event is the duration of impactful winds across north-central MT,
which tends to increase the risk of blowing dust/debris and power
outages. Hoenisch

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 837 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Through today and tomorrow the upper-level ridge will start to
break down allowing for a shift towards northwest flow and breezy
conditions heading into Saturday. By Sunday, strong upper-level
flow will set up across Montana with steep lapse rates expected to
help bring some of the more damaging winds to the surface across
the region. Gusts up to 75 mph will be possible along the Northern
Plains with isolated gusts up to 100 mph possible along the Rocky
Mountain Front.

More zonal flow returns Sunday evening into Monday as winds start
to calm down with multiple rounds of shortwaves expected to move
across the region through next week bringing daily chances for
precipitation and breezy conditions.


 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow:

Overwhelming, the majority of the snow will be found in the
mountains over the weekend with the highest amounts along the
Rocky Mountain Front.

One of the wild cards is the Hi-Line right along the Canadian
border. There is currently around a 60-80% chance of receiving an
inch or more Sunday night through Monday morning with a 20-40%
chance of some isolated cases of 2 inches or more. For the time
being, there is not enough confidence in snowfall amounts of
impacts to warrant an advisory along the Hi-Line but this will be
watched with future updates.

Otherwise, snow primarily remains confined to the mountains
Tuesday and Wednesday with a less than 20% chance for a stray
rain/snow shower at nearby lower elevation locations.


Saturday Wind:

Along the Rocky Mountain Front, strong winds will start to pick up
Saturday morning and continue through late Sunday evening.

One of the main concerns is that a lot of the upper-level support
has diminished compared to previous model runs with 700 mb. Upper
level winds are sitting in the 30-40kt range now which is less
than ideal for a confident high wind event. Probability-wise,
there is still a greater than 80% chance for maximum wind gusts
exceeding 50 mph along the Highway 200 corridor between Great
Falls and Lewistown but the probabilities drop off fast with
higher wind gusts. Outside of the Rocky Mountain Front, there is
only a 30% chance of gusts exceeding 60 mph right around the
Geyser area. As a result, there is diminishing confidence in
whether this portion of the high wind event will pan out. But
there is still enough confidence in higher gusts that it is worth
holding onto the watch just a little longer to make sure this
trend is confirmed in the next model runs. But the most likely
scenario as of now is that gusts 40-50 mph are expected in this
area with an isolated gust up to 60 mph, particularly in the wind-
prone areas of Judith Basin county towards Judith Gap.


Sunday Wind:

Confidence continues to increase for the likelihood of very strong
winds across central and north-central Montana. Across the
Northern Plains, there is a 60-80% chance for gusts over 60 mph
and 30-50% chance for gusts over 70 mph. Along the Rocky Mountain
Front, there is a 60-80% chance for gusts over 80 mph and 20-30%
chance for gusts over 100 mph.

There are some lingering uncertainties with regards to how far
south the high winds go. The I-90 corridor still holds a 50-60%
chance for gusts greater than 60 mph but it pales in comparison to
the higher confidence shown further north. As a result, the watch
for Sunday was left alone and future updates will address if
additional zones need to be added or removed to the eventual
warning.


Windy Next Week:

Extended model guidance continues to suggest the potential for
breezy conditions continuing through the next week. While most
locations will likely stay in the 30-40 mph threshold there are
elevated probabilities (above 50%) for gusts above 50 mph on
Wednesday and Thursday. Any finer details are far from resolved
but it is worth keeping an eye on for future forecast updates.
-thor


&&

.AVIATION...
07/06Z TAF Period

Pacific moisture within increasing westerly flow aloft will lead
to mountain obscuration and low-VFR CIGS throughout for much of
the 0706/0806 TAF period. A stay rain and/snow shower can`t be
ruled out along and southwest of KHLN to KBZN line between
12-18z, which thereafter much of the precipitation will be
confined to the Continental Divide. Surface winds will also be on
the increase through the TAF period, especially over the plains of
Central and North Central Montana beyond 09-15z Saturday.
Instance of low level wind shear and mountain wave turbulence will
increase over this timeframe, especially along the Rocky Mountain
Front. - Moldan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There will be elevated fire weather concerns for grassland areas
this weekend. Particularly for areas that received little to no
precipitation yesterday and today. Strong winds, gusting over 60
mph at times, combined with high temperatures in the upper 50s and
60s and minimum relative humidity values in the 20s and 30s may
make it difficult to contain any existing or new fire starts. The
worst conditions look to occur on Sunday when the winds will be
strongest and most widespread. - RCG/IG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  58  47  59 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  33  54  43  53 /   0  10   0  50
HLN  30  54  40  60 /  10  30  10  10
BZN  22  53  33  61 /   0  20  10   0
WYS  12  35  26  43 /   0  60  30  30
DLN  24  50  33  56 /   0  20   0   0
HVR  30  63  41  59 /   0  10  10  30
LWT  27  55  39  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 2 AM Saturday to midnight MST Sunday
night for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western
Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High
Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening
for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger
and Castle Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area-Eastern Pondera and
Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Elkhorn and Boulder
Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-
Hill County-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher County
Valleys-Missouri Headwaters-Northern Blaine County-Snowy and
Judith Mountains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass-Western and
Central Chouteau County.

High Wind Watch from 8 AM MST Saturday through Sunday evening
for Cascade County below 5000ft-Fergus County below 4500ft-
Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls