Malmstrom AFB, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

284
FXUS65 KTFX 201653
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1053 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and thunderstorms today, mostly over the eastern
  portions of the CWA.

- Scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, with a few
  storms producing heavy rainfall over the eastern portions of the
  CWA.

- After a cool day on Tuesday, turning warmer and drier by the end
  of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 911 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025/

Slight adjustments were made to precipitation chances over the
next 24 hours based on the latest NBM guidance. The main concern
in the short term will be thunderstorms that develop this
afternoon. As of now there are no significant concerns for severe
weather but wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range are possible. -thor

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 911 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:
A weak upper level disturbance will move eastward across the CWA
today. This disturbance will allow for a showers/thunderstorms to
affect the CWA, with the best chance over the eastern portions of
the CWA.

On Monday, an upper level trof will start to approach the CWA by
the late afternoon hours. This will allow for
showers/thunderstorms to develop over much of North Central MT by
the evening hours. On Monday evening, precipitable water goes over
1 inch over the eastern portions of the CWA, allowing for the
potential for a few storms to produce heavy rainfall. It remains
cool, with showers continuing on Tuesday.

For Wednesday through Sunday, expect a nice warming trend by late
in the work week, with warm temperatures continuing into next
weekend. There will be a few isolated showers/thunderstorms later
next week, but confidence right now is low in timing.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
On Monday evening, with precipitable water over an inch, some
storms east of a line from Havre to Stanford could produce heavy
rainfall, with a quick inch of rainfall possible.

Later next week, drier air will start to work into the CWA. If any
thunderstorms do develop, they will have the potential to produce
strong wind gusts. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
20/18Z TAF Period.

VFR conditions will prevail through 06z Monday, with CIGS lowering
to MVFR at the KCTB and KGTF terminals through 15z Monday in wake
of a southward advancing cold front. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across
portions of Southwest and Central Montana, generally along and
southeast of a KHLN to KLWT line. These showers and storms are not
expected to reduce CIGS or VIS below VFR, but mountain top
obscuration and erratic winds are possible at or near the KLWT,
KBZN, and KEKS terminals. - Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  82  56  72  55 /  10  10  40  70
CTB  74  52  59  49 /  10  30  70  70
HLN  83  57  79  54 /  20  20  50  60
BZN  86  51  88  51 /  30  20  40  50
WYS  79  43  81  45 /  20  20  30  20
DLN  83  48  84  50 /  10  10  30  20
HVR  82  55  76  53 /  10  10  20  70
LWT  78  52  77  52 /  40  50  40  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls