Lockwood, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

246
FXUS65 KBYZ 120010
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
610 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible through
  this evening. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of
  producing wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Active weather through Tuesday, with periods of lower elevation
  rain showers and some mountain snow. Isolated thunderstorms
  possible again for Sunday.

- Another weather system (potentially cooler) late Wednesday and
  Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms at their strongest this
evening have produced small hail and gusty winds 40-50 mph.
Thunderstorms have trended weaker over the last half an hour and
hi res models generally show that same trend with weak
thunderstorms being mainly over southeast MT. About a 10-20%
chance remains for southeast MT through around midnight for showers
and thunderstorms. TS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...

Very warm and mostly dry conditions are forecast today, ahead of
a shortwave trough moving in from the southwest. Expect highs in
the 70s ato low 80sF (warmest in the east). The Billings Airport
has a forecast high of 77F which is only 3 degrees below the daily
record high of 80F.

As the shortwave moves into the region this afternoon, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to form off of
the mountains and foothills. Storms are not expected to be strong,
with the main impacts being gusty and erratic winds. There is
decent instability around for potential storms to use, with up to
500 J/kg of surface CAPE. To go along with this, steep lapse rates
of >8 C/km will allow for deep mixing. The Storm Prediction
Center added much of the forecast area to a Marginal Risk (1/5)
for this afternoon due to the threat for a few stronger wind gusts
up to 60 mph. Generally though, gusts in the 40s to 50 mph will
be the primary concerns. As the wave moves east, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will decrease through the evening.

The aforementioned trough will continue a slow progression into
the Northern Rockies, Sunday into Tuesday. Temperatures look to be
a bit cooler than today, though highs remain above normal in the
60s to low 70sF for Sunday. An additional chance for showers and
thunderstorms is possible Sunday afternoon. Surface flow will be
out of the east to northeast, bringing in moisture from the Gulf.
Destabilization looks better tomorrow, as less cloud cover will
be around in the west. The latest HiRes runs have showers and
storms forming off of the mountains again and moving north-east.
Like today, the threat for gusty and erratic winds will be the
primary concern.

For the weekend, the chance of appreciable moisture is dependent
on shower/storm location, even then storms do not look like they
will be heavy rain producers. Monday and Tuesday, the chance for
precipitation is moderate, with showers and a weak thunderstorm or
two. The latest model and forecast runs have continued the trend
of less widespread precipitation. The latest probability for at
least 0.25" of precip Sunday through Tuesday is 20-60% across the
lower elevations, greatest in the west-central zones. In the
mountains, snow levels will fall towards 8,000 feet, bringing a
few inches (1-4", locally greater amounts for the highest
southwest facing peaks) of snowfall.

Rainfall is expected to stay below 8,000 ft, so there is no
concern for rain on snow in the higher terrain. Ensembles then
show a little break with additional energy moving in late
Wednesday through Friday. There is still some uncertainty on the
timing of these systems, but is there is agreement that cooler
conditions will return by the end of the week.

The current forecast has high temperatures in the 50s and 60sF
Tuesday-Wednesday, 40s and 50sF for Thursday, and 30s to mid 40sF
on Friday. Continue to monitor the forecast if you have outdoor
plans this week.

Matos

.AVIATION...

00z Discussion...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will continue to push east through the area this evening. With
this, the main threat is gusty and erratic winds and brief MVFR
conditions. While convective wind gusts around 30 to 40 knots look
to the most common, there is a slight chance of an isolated gust
to 50 knots with any thunderstorm that develops this evening. Look
for this threat to decrease late this evening into tonight as the
activity moves east out of our area. By Sunday morning, mostly
clear skies are expected to return.

Another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is
forecast Sunday afternoon and evening. While gusty and erratic
winds will be the main threat once again, a bit higher relative
humidity should limit gusts into the 20 to 40 knot range. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/069 041/062 041/065 042/062 037/047 025/045 026/055
    24/W    46/W    42/W    14/W    78/W    53/J    11/B
LVM 038/064 038/056 036/059 038/054 030/041 021/042 023/053
    44/T    37/T    52/W    16/W    88/J    53/J    11/B
HDN 043/071 041/065 039/066 040/065 036/052 024/046 023/056
    34/W    57/W    53/W    13/W    78/W    64/J    12/W
MLS 048/069 044/063 040/064 039/064 036/050 023/039 022/052
    23/U    56/T    42/W    12/W    55/W    43/J    11/B
4BQ 047/069 042/065 039/062 039/065 038/055 024/039 022/051
    32/U    25/W    33/W    11/B    35/W    63/J    11/B
BHK 045/069 040/062 036/062 038/062 034/049 021/036 019/046
    31/U    35/T    32/W    01/B    34/W    53/J    11/B
SHR 039/067 037/060 032/060 033/062 032/053 020/041 020/051
    32/W    36/W    45/W    12/W    48/W    75/J    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings