Lockwood, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

980
FXUS65 KBYZ 201426
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
826 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
  afternoon and evening today and Monday. During this time, a few
  storms could become strong to severe. Main threats are hail,
  strong winds, and heavy rain.

- Cooler temperatures (70s and 80s) Tuesday and Wednesday with
  continued daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

- More typical July weather (warmer and drier) looks to return
  for Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Morning satellite imagery shows an area of stratus remaining over
southeast MT, a feature that should slowly erode between now and
midday. A few showers have recently popped up across the north
near Ryegate, Roundup and Forsyth. This is somewhat unexpected but
indicative of the atmospheric moisture and instability in place,
and there is a weak mid level zonal speed max moving thru central
MT. There are also patches of altocumulus. The current conditions
are certainly suggestive of active diurnal convection later today,
and SPC`s day1 outlook continues to highlight the eastern two-
thirds of our forecast area with a marginal risk of severe
t-storms...though no doubt the greatest risk is in our east where
pwats continue to exceed an inch. Heavy rain will accompany any
storm today, of course.

JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday Night...

Nocturnal convection over central Montana will gradually decrease
through the early morning hours today. Outside of this activity,
easterly winds and higher dew points will lead to patchy
fog/stratus development over far eastern Montana this morning.
Current satellite imagery already shows fog/stratus building into
portions of Custer, Fallon, and Carter Counties as of 2AM MDT.

With broad troughing over the region, look for afternoon and
evening isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms both today
and Monday. During this time, a few thunderstorms could become
strong to severe with the main threats being hail, wind, and heavy
rain. Looking more closely at today`s setup, a weak shortwave
trough skirting through central Montana looks to initiate
convection over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading
it over the plains late this afternoon and evening. The best
atmospheric conditions (instability, shear, and moisture) look to
reside over eastern Montana, generally east of Billings, so this
is the area of most concern for strong to severe thunderstorms
today. High resolution models are not in good agreement with
today`s setup though, so some uncertainty remains on the high end
strength of the thunderstorms today. On Monday, a stronger area of
low pressure looks to set up over the Pacific Northwest, this
will allow flow aloft to back a little more to the southwest and
will put our region in much better diffluent flow aloft. With
this, a bit more widespread convection looks to develop and move
through the region. The more favorable atmospheric conditions also
look to spread more west on Monday, allowing the severe weather
threat to exist around, east and north of Billings. With all that
said, if you have outdoor plans today or Monday, make sure to stay
weather aware.

Look for seasonal temperatures to exist today and Monday with
afternoon highs in the 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the
50s to lower 60s across the lower elevations. Arends

Tuesday through Saturday...

Southwest flow will continue to prevail to start the extended
period. Low to moderate PoPs (20-60%) of mainly late day showers
and thunderstorms are in the forecast through Wednesday. Wettest
period looks to be Tuesday evening. Instability will be sufficient
with PWATS in the 1 inch to nearly 1.5 inch range. Favorable jet
dynamics in place suggest threat of strong to severe storms and
very heavy rainfall, though details still uncertain for now.
Ensembles and cluster analysis indicate a return to a more
westerly flow pattern and thus drier and warmer conditions. There
remains a hint at a transition into a southwesterly flow with a
jet over our SE by Friday evening. If model runs continue with
this, we could see our NBM guidance increase PoPs over our
mountains and far east by Friday evening...something to keep an
eye out for.

High temperatures will continue to be mainly upper 70s to lower
80s through Wednesday, warming to the upper 80s to mid 90s by
Friday. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

Area of MVFR stratus remains over southeast MT as of 14Z,
affecting KBHK-K97M, but this should slowly eroded thru the
morning hours.

Expect scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Look
for convection to initially develop over the Beartooth Range and
move off to the eastern plains after 20Z. Storms could intensify
as they move east, with isolated strong to severe storms possible.
Heavy rain and brief reductions to IFR are possible (most likely
to impact KMLS-KBHK-K97M). Storms may linger past midnight near
the Dakotas border. Fog and stratus (reductions to MVFR-IFR) are
possible again tonight into early Monday east of Rosebud County.

Slant range visibility may be reduced at times due to wildfire
smoke from the west. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 060/086 061/083 059/079 058/090 063/093 061/092
    3/T 22/T    44/T    53/T    11/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 087 050/085 052/081 050/082 050/089 055/090 054/090
    2/T 24/T    55/T    53/T    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 090 059/088 061/084 058/079 056/091 060/094 059/094
    2/T 32/T    53/T    63/T    21/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 089 063/088 063/082 059/079 058/090 063/094 063/094
    3/T 42/T    62/T    53/T    21/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 087 062/091 064/085 061/079 059/087 065/092 063/091
    1/U 22/T    52/T    63/T    41/U    21/U    10/U
BHK 084 058/085 061/081 056/078 054/085 060/090 059/090
    2/T 41/B    62/T    43/T    31/U    21/U    11/U
SHR 089 054/090 056/084 054/080 053/089 057/091 056/092
    2/T 22/T    32/T    44/T    32/T    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings