Laurel, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

644
FXUS65 KBYZ 220922
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
222 AM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues through the weekend; warmer than normal
  temps expected through next week.

- Strong southwest to west winds along the foothills west of
  Billings tonight into Monday; expect hazardous crosswinds on
  portions of I-90 and US-191.

- The prolonged warm spell will likely produce significant
  snowmelt onto frozen ground. This may result in significant
  ponding of water, the potential for overland flooding, and ice
  jam development/release on creeks and streams as early as this
  weekend, continuing next week. For more information, check the
  posted Hydrologic Outlook.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday Night...

Foothills Winds...

It will be windy throughout the short term and into the long
term. Winds today will pick up through the morning and afternoon.
Wind gusts in the the 50s mph will be common for foothills
locations west of Billings. Winds in the Livingston and Nye areas
could gust into the 60s mph. The strongest winds are expected
tonight into tomorrow morning with foothills locations gusting
50-70 mph. Livingston has a 55% chance of getting a gust over 75
mph, Big Timber has a 35% chance, and Harlowton a 15% chance.
Winds will weaken slightly during the day Sunday while remaining
very strong gusting into the 50s and 60s mph. More information on
continued strong winds in the long term.

Temperatures...

Temperatures will be near normal today with most locations in the
high 30s to low 40s F. Temperatures continue to warm tomorrow
into the mid 40s to low 50s. This will continue our snowmelt
across the region. Snowpack temperatures are still in the 20s F
acting to limit snowmelt for now. Snowmelt will likely accelerate
over the next few days however as the chance for above freezing
low temperatures is greater than 50% for much of the region
tonight. This is a trend that will continue over the next few days
acting to greatly increase snowmelt. With this comes the
potential for ice jams leading to localized river rises and
ponding of water.

Precipitation...

A weak wave and associated front will move through Sunday bringing
10-20% precipitation chances. This wave will bring some moisture
over the continental divide but lower levels of the atmosphere
will remain dry due to downsloping flow. The chance for greater
than 0.10 inches of precipitation remains less than 15%. This
pattern will set up southwest flow over the Beartooth mountains
bringing a 50-80% chance of greater than 3 inches of snow Sunday
through Sunday night. Torgerson



Monday through Saturday...

The early part of the work week will see ridging across the
region with normal to above normal temps. While periods of strong
wind are likely to continue in the western foothills (Livingston,
Big Timber, Harlowton) through Tuesday, models do indicate some
weakening of the pressure gradient, so winds may not be quite as
strong in the gap locations. There is a hint of wave action in the
700mb flow suggesting strong wind in the high country continuing
from Sunday (70% chance of gusts 75 mph). A high wind watch is in
place for the higher mountains through Monday (outdoor
recreationists beware). Some Pacific moisture working into the
mountains may also produce some light snow Monday over west facing
slopes. Tuesday a short wave moves across the area with snow in
the high country (2-4 inches), rain/snow in the foothills and
scattered showers over the lower elevations with highs in the 40s.
Look for brisk conditions though as gusts to 35 mph may spread
over the lower elevations with the Pacific front.

Wednesday still looks like the start of a quieter period as the
winds die down and ensembles agree that strong ridging prevails
over the western CONUS. The chance of temps over 50 degrees go up
to 60% by the end of the week. BT


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist over the region today. The main
impacts to aviation are strong wind along the foothills and local
blowing & drifting snow. SW-W winds 25-35 knots with gusts along
the western foothills 35-45 knots (highest at KLVM). Both KLVM and
K6S0 may see reductions to MVFR-IFR in BLSN today, especially
before 18Z. The risk of LLWS will increase after 00Z Sun. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040 032/045 038/047 034/045 031/044 029/048 033/048
    1/N 01/N    21/N    24/R    10/U    00/B    11/B
LVM 041 033/045 038/047 033/041 026/041 028/048 030/047
    0/N 01/N    51/N    45/O    10/N    00/B    10/B
HDN 042 025/047 034/048 030/047 029/046 024/052 028/051
    1/E 01/E    21/B    25/O    11/B    00/B    11/B
MLS 039 028/043 036/047 030/048 031/046 028/050 032/049
    1/B 01/N    21/N    12/R    10/U    00/B    01/B
4BQ 042 028/046 034/050 031/049 032/046 028/053 033/052
    0/B 00/B    11/B    13/R    11/U    00/U    01/B
BHK 040 025/045 031/047 026/048 025/044 023/047 026/045
    1/N 00/N    12/R    13/O    10/N    00/U    11/N
SHR 044 025/050 032/051 029/049 025/044 023/053 029/050
    0/B 01/B    11/B    05/O    21/U    00/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect until 5 PM MST Monday FOR ZONES
      63-141-172-228.
     Wind Advisory in effect until 5 PM MST Monday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings