Laurel, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

031
FXUS65 KBYZ 040306
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
806 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry with above normal temperatures through Saturday.

- Turning unsettled and cooler Sunday into early next week.

- Periods of gusty/strong winds along the western foothills
  through the week. Winds look to be strongest Friday night into
  Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

A clipper system dropping into North Dakota will push an
associated backdoor cold front through the area tonight bringing
an increase in moisture and cooler conditions. Winds will remain
breezy at times over the western foothills overnight, with wind
gusts 30-40 mph possible. A few light snow showers or flurries are
possible over the far east late tonight/tomorrow morning. Have
updated wind and PoPs to latest trends through tomorrow morning.
The previous forecast discussion is below. STP

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday Night...

Currently, with ridging over the west coast, warm and dry air is
in place over our region. Some weak energy riding the lee side of
the ridge is bringing some cool and moist air from the north. Any
kind of precipitation from this is unlikely. In the Big Timber and
Livingston areas, wind gusts have remained in the 30-40 mph range
with winds expected to decrease into the evening. A low moving
from Canada into Minnesota will bring a backdoor front through the
region Wednesday morning. This will bring a small increased
chance of precipitation for east-central MT (10-15%).
Temperatures will be cooler Wednesday with highs forecasted to be
in the 20s east to low 50s along the western foothills. Wednesday
night, a pressure gradient will set up to allow for gap winds in
the Livingston, Nye and Big Timber areas. The chance for gusts 50
mph or more is around 25%. NW flow and dry conditions will be in
place Thursday with high temperatures in the 30s east to 50s
west. TS

Friday through Tuesday...

Friday and Saturday are forecast to be dry ahead of the late
weekend weather system. During those days, temperatures are
forecast to be above normal with highs in the upper 40s and 50s.
Saturday looks to be the warmest day with temperatures approaching
60 degrees, especially in Sheridan County, Wyoming (30-60 percent
chance of seeing 60 degf). With the warm temperatures, windy
conditions are expected to develop over the western foothills as a
favorable pressure gradient sets up Friday night into Sunday
morning. At this time, local guidance continues to show a 75
percent chance at Livingston and a 55 percent chance at Big Timber
and Harlowton to see wind gusts of 50 mph or greater during that
time. These strong winds look to come to an end Sunday as a cold
front passage disrupts the favorable pressure gradient.

With the cold front and associated upper-level trough, the chance
of precipitation increases across the region Sunday through
Monday (30-70 percent chance, highest over the mountains and
foothills and lowest over the plains of southeastern Montana).
With this system, the precipitation signal remains lower in both
the GFS and EC ensembles. At this time, the NBM only gives a low
to moderate chance of seeing 0.10 or more inches of liquid
precipitation over the lower elevations. As for precipitation
type, rain is expected to transition over to snow Sunday night
over the lower elevations. In the mountains, where all snow is
expected, there is a moderate chance of seeing 3 or more inches of
snow at this time. Along with the precipitation, breezy winds
behind the cold front will exist Sunday into Monday over the
plains.

By Tuesday, only a low chance of precipitation remains over the
region as ensembles suggest unstable northwesterly flow will
prevail aloft. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday look to be cooler as
well with temperatures generally in the 30s and 40s. Arends

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail into tonight across the region.
Wednesday morning into the afternoon, a backdoor cold front will
turn winds out of the north and east around and east of KBIL to
KSHR. With this, a MVFR to IFR stratus deck is forecast to drop
into eastern Montana around KMLS and KBHK. Outside of this, the
breezy west to southwesterly winds around KLVM, K6S0, and K3HT
look to decrease a bit this evening and night before coming to an
end Wednesday. From K6S0 to K3HT, winds may temporarily increase
early Wednesday morning (gusts around 30 kts) before decreasing.
Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/042 023/050 032/052 036/055 037/046 027/035 020/037
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    13/O    43/S    11/B
LVM 032/052 030/053 030/052 035/054 033/041 023/035 017/036
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/N    34/O    42/S    11/B
HDN 020/041 019/048 025/052 029/056 034/046 024/035 018/037
    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    24/R    54/S    22/S
MLS 023/032 016/037 021/048 030/054 035/045 022/032 016/034
    02/S    00/U    00/U    00/B    12/R    33/S    11/B
4BQ 024/037 021/046 025/052 031/058 034/046 023/033 018/034
    01/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    13/R    43/S    11/B
BHK 021/030 007/035 017/046 026/053 030/044 017/028 010/030
    12/S    10/B    00/U    00/B    12/R    32/S    10/B
SHR 025/046 021/051 025/054 028/060 030/045 020/033 014/036
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    24/O    54/S    22/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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