Helena Valley West Central, MT 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

373
FXUS65 KTFX 111803
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1203 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy day over North Central MT today.
- Increasing chances for rain and snow tonight over Southwest and
  Central MT.
- Snow Sunday over Central MT, which could be impactful in some
  areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 357 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:
The main concern today will be the potential for gusty winds later
this morning and this afternoon over North Central MT, as a
Pacific cool front approaches the area. The strongest winds will
affect the Rocky Mountain Front and the Cut Bank area, but overall
wind gusts should remain below warning criteria.

On Saturday, an upper level disturbance will move northeastward
through Southwest MT and Central MT. The GFS is more aggressive
with the precipitation. Should the GFS pan out, the snowfall could
be a bit heavier Saturday morning over the Kings Hill area.
Otherwise, most areas of Central/Southwest MT will have some
passing rain/snow showers. An isolated thunderstorm is also
possible in the Big Sky and West Yellowstone areas.

For Sunday, and upper level trof will move across MT. Overall, the
models are in good agreement with this feature. The GFS continues
to have higher precipitation amounts and stronger winds than other
models. This now looks to be a fairly quick moving system, with
most of the precipitation over with by late Sunday afternoon.

For next week, just a few passing light showers later in the week
as the airmass becomes a bit unstable. Overall, expect a nice
warming trend, with afternoon temperatures about 15 degrees above
normal by the end of next week.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The two concerns this morning are the potential for heavier
snowfall on Saturday morning over Kings Hill. Again, should the
GFS pan out, a winter weather advisory might be needed for a short
time with the heavier snowfall on Saturday morning.

For Sunday, the GFS has the higher precipitation amounts, but it
is also a bit lower than it has been. Now it is looking mostly
like a winter weather advisory will be needed for portions of
Glacier Park and the Kings Hill area. Strong winds are still
expected, which could cause some impacts with reduced visibility.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
11/18Z TAF Period

Gusty westerly winds and mountain wave turbulence along the Rocky
Mountain Front and the plains will slowly diminish as the afternoon
progresses. Otherwise, southwesterly flow aloft will bring an
increase in clouds this afternoon and tonight. A few scattered
showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder remain possible this
afternoon and evening, mostly over Southwest Montana. Then a Pacific
cold front will send a band of rain and snow showers through Central
and Southwest Montana between 12/10 and 12/20Z. This will be more
impactful in terms of precipitation and MVFR/IFR conditions
impacting the terminals. Areas south and east of a KHLN to KHVR li
ne will be most susceptible to this area of precipitation. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  57  33  48 /  30  40  50  40
CTB  34  52  29  46 /   0  20  70  20
HLN  43  54  33  50 /  50  60  20  30
BZN  40  53  27  47 /  40  90  40  20
WYS  33  54  18  44 /  30  90  40  10
DLN  41  58  26  50 /  20  60  10   0
HVR  36  62  31  49 /   0  20  70  30
LWT  39  51  29  42 /  60  80  50  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls