Hardin, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

298
FXUS65 KBYZ 251201
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
501 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog through this morning in portions of northern Rosebud
  & Custer Counties.

- Above normal temperatures through Friday; some daily records may
  be broken today.

- Canadian cold front brings a quick shot of snow and colder temps
  for the weekend. Travel conditions may be impacted by poor
  visibility and slick roads, especially close to the foothills.

- Persistent light to moderate accumulating snow for the
  Beartooth/Absaroka mountains through Saturday.

- First half of next week looks warm and dry.


&&

.UPDATE...
We have cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory in the east as webcams
and surface observations indicate conditions have improved and the
risk of visibility under 1/2 mile has diminished considerably.
Any lingering fog should dissipate through the morning.

We have also updated forecast highs for today. Remarkedly warm air
for this time of year is advecting into portions of northern WY
and southern MT with upper 50s reported across southern Powder
River and Carter Counties. Sheridan got a boost from downslope
mixing winds and peaked at 66 degrees in the overnight hours. BT

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through next Wednesday...

In the immediate term...areas of fog have persisted across the
eastern river valleys overnight, but as the surface trough slides
east some of the fog has at least partially lifted. Still may be
some lingering fog at sunrise as far west as Yellowstone
County...but feel the pressure patterns and wind fields suggest it
will not be as stubborn as yesterday, and dissipate through the
morning.

A weak Pacific frontal passage could spread some light showers
across lower elevations today and perhaps Friday, but these will
be insignificant. Temps will remain well above average with
readings in the 40s to mid 50s. We expect near record highs for
many locations this Christmas day. Daily records at Livingston
(56F in 2005), Billings (56F in 2005) and Sheridan (61 in 1947)
will be challenged. At the very least, this will be one of the
warmest Christmases we have seen in our period of record.

Moist Pacific flow veering from SW to W will result in continued
periods of accumulating snowfall over our western mountains
through Saturday. Most of this will be on the higher west facing
slopes around Cooke City where we are looking at 10-16" of snow
(60% chance of 12+ inches) over the next 3 days.

There should be a period of prefrontal enhanced SW-W winds along
the western foothills late Friday into early Saturday. The risk of
50+ mph gusts is ~60% at Livingston, and 20-40% at Big Timber and
Harlowton.

Models continue to show an upper trough tracking across the region
late Friday night through Saturday. Models have trended toward
digging a little further south. Despite a wide spread in potential
QPF over the region, the latest probabilities for 1+ inches of
snow has trended slightly upward and range from 20% at Billings
to 70% along the southern foothills where a decent brief period
of upslope is depicted on cross sections. Would not be surprised
to see Red Lodge get a quick 1-3 inches. Areas to the north and
east may not see much precipitation. The main push of colder air
is currently progged for midday through the afternoon. Even with
just a bit of snow Saturday with the frontal passage, rapidly
falling temps could result in icy roads for latter part of day
into the evening. We are confidently looking at a sharp cool down
during the day on Saturday followed by lows ranging from near 5
below in the east to low-mid teens west Saturday night. Wind
chills may reach 20 below in our east as post-frontal NW winds
will be brisk. Chilly air will remain in place Sunday before
warmer weather returns early next week.

A period of strong winds is possible along the western foothills
Sunday night into Monday...but confidence is not high as to the
timing which may hold off into Monday night. Those in high
profile vehicles traveling in south central Montana will want to
monitor forecasts.

Cluster analysis of ensembles suggest high confidence for above
normal heights with a broad northern Rockies ridge Monday to
Wednesday. So, look for dry conditions with above normal temps
(highs in 40s to lower 50s) as we approach the New Year. BT


.AVIATION...


Visibilities will continue to improve for east central MT (from
K1S3 to KMLS) through 15Z. Weak mountain wave activity will impact
the Bighorn foothills through this morning with erratic wind
gusts of 30-40 kts expected at KSHR. Fog is likely to set in again
this evening after 0Z for east central MT. Overnight, there is
about a 30% chance for visibilities to get to 1SM or less at KMLS.
TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058 035/056 031/039 008/030 018/042 029/047 027/043
    1/B 00/B    05/S    20/U    00/B    00/B    11/B
LVM 056 036/050 027/036 010/030 018/041 028/047 030/048
    2/R 24/R    37/S    20/B    00/B    00/B    11/B
HDN 057 032/055 029/039 004/025 012/042 026/046 023/041
    1/B 00/B    05/O    30/U    00/B    01/B    11/B
MLS 048 029/050 026/035 001/016 005/038 024/044 021/036
    0/B 00/B    02/S    20/U    00/U    01/B    21/B
4BQ 061 033/056 031/042 005/019 009/040 026/045 023/039
    1/E 00/B    02/S    30/U    00/U    01/B    11/B
BHK 053 028/054 026/035 903/010 000/035 020/041 015/033
    0/B 00/B    01/N    20/N    00/U    01/B    21/B
SHR 061 030/054 026/040 002/025 009/042 022/047 023/047
    2/B 01/B    14/S    40/U    00/U    00/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings