Butte-Silver Bow, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

038
FXUS65 KMSO 191937
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
137 PM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Breezy, warm, and dry conditions are expected through the
   weekend.

-  A 75 percent probability exists for a cool, wet, and breezy
   weather system early next week.

While clouds can be seen on satellite and current observations
demonstrate 24-hour temperature changes of 5 to 15 degrees cooler,
dry conditions and breezy west winds will combine to produce near
critical fire weather. A weak weather system transiting the
Canadian border will allow for a few showers and thunderstorms. So
far we have observed a total of 0.44 of an inch in Colombia
Falls MT, sent to us by a weather spotter. Being directly under a
storm core could produce moderate to heavy showers.

Similar conditions will develop tomorrow with less shower
activity and lessening in the magnitude of wind.

An atypical summer pattern returns Monday with much cooler
temperatures and showery conditions. Forecast models continue to
show a relatively stationary boundary develop over west-central
MT at the same time as anomalous precipitable waters (atmospheric
moisture), that could focus shower activity for a period time in
that area. Overall however, the activity will be convective in
nature where some will benefit and some will not. The models are
beginning to focus higher amounts yet again for northwest MT,
where the probability of greater than a 1/4 inch is 60 to 70%
north of Polson by Wednesday morning.

A warming trend begins Thursday onward with temperatures
rebounding to around normal for this time of the year. Averaged
out, July 30th is Missoula`s warmest day of the year, its all
downhill from there.


&&

.AVIATION...Breezy west-northwest winds with gusts up to 25 kts
have been present at and around area terminals. Additionally, we
have received credible reports of mountain wave activity with
local gusts up to 45 kts and can see from the office lenticular
clouds over the Bitterroot Crest (curved or mountain cap clouds
typically present during mountain waves). A few isolated showers
or thunderstorms have developed in northwest Montana due to a
passing shortwave. Localized turbulence and brief reductions in
visibility are possible in storm proximity. Sunday will bring
increasing high clouds, and afternoon gusts of around 20 kts along
the Divide, southwest Montana, and Lemhi County.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$