St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

194
FXUS63 KEAX 120010
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
710 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms Saturday late
  afternoon into the overnight hours. Large hail and damaging
  winds are the primary threats with this activity. Heavy rain
  will also be possible which could lead to localized flooding

- There is potentially an active pattern setting up for next
  week, with multiple chances for showers and storms leading to
  potential for heavy rainfall. There is considerable
  uncertainty in the placement dependent on how strong and upper
  ridge is to our southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A surface ridge of high pressure is shifting off the to the east
this afternoon and modest WAA has developed. That has allow for
temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s this afternoon.
Tonight, a upper level trough will move from the northern Plains
into the northern Great Lakes. This will force a trailing cold front
into the area tomorrow morning. A few showers and storms may be
possible along and ahead of this front across the western CWA
tomorrow morning (20-30%). Tomorrow, the overall pattern will
feature quasi-zonal flow aloft with a stalled frontal boundary
bisecting the area. During the late afternoon/evening hours a upper
level shortwave traveling on zonal flow aloft is progged to move
into the area which is expected to kick off another round of showers
and thunderstorms with the stalled frontal boundary as the focus.
These storms are expected to develop in an environment where 2500-
3500J/Kg of MUCAPE will be available and 40-45kts of 0-6Km shear.
This will provide the potential for storms to be strong to severe
with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Tomorrow night,
a southwestern LLJ will develop and nose into the area which will
continue the chance for stronger storms as well as the potential for
heavy rain with PWATs hovering in the 1.75-2.00" range. As such,
localized flooding cannot be ruled out. Storm chances will continue
into Sunday as quasi-zonal flow persists with several subtle
shortwave possible. This will continue the potential for flooding
particularly across the northern CWA where storms are more likely.
Highs Saturday will be in the 80s. The temperatures on Sunday will
have a greater spread with cloud cover and storms keeping highs in
the mid 70s over northern Missouri but reaching the upper 80s across
the southern CWA.

Sunday night into Monday, upper level ridging will build over the
Mississippi River Valley. As a warm front lifts north of the area.
This will aid in drying conditions out and allow highs to rise into
the mid 80s to mid 90s. Tuesday the upper level ridge axis move east
into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. This will leave the
local area on the periphery of the ridge. Several shortwaves
rounding the ridge into the local area in the Tuesday through
Thursday timeframe looks to set up a very wet and unsettled middle
part of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 705 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Currently, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the
period. Confidence in coverage and timing of precipitation is
low at this time for individual TAF sites. There is potential
for showers and isolated thunder around daybreak, Saturday,
greater confidence is for this activity to remain west of TAF
sites. A second round of scattered thunderstorms is expected
Saturday afternoon and evening. Confidence is too low at this
time for PROB30 and will reassess at the 06Z and 12Z issuances.
Winds will remain light overnight, generally out of the south,
shifting more west through daybreak.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Kurtz