St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

198
FXUS63 KEAX 120716
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
216 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm temperatures and humidity levels along with
  dry weather are expected today and Monday.

- A major warmup is forecast to begin Tuesday and continue
  through the end of the week.

- Dry conditions are expected the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Dry and increasingly hot temperatures are expected through the
forecast period. The region will come under the influence of an
omega block that will result in H5 ridging over the area, which
will keep precipitation chances very low to nil. Today and
Monday will see quiet weather with temperatures near typical
mid-July values.

On Tuesday, the ridge associated with the omega block will
become more centered over the region. As H5 heights rise to
594-597 dm (around the 95th percentile per the LREF), a
significant warming trend will begin. The latest NBM ensembles
show a 60-80% chance of high temperatures of 90F or greater
Tuesday and 80-100% chances Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday
and Saturday, the peak of the heat is expected, with 30-60% and
50-75% chance of high temperatures exceeding 95F on Friday and
Saturday, respectively.

With the ridging trending in stronger direction in the most
recent ensemble guidance, precipitation chances have trended
below mentionable values for the next seven days. With drying
soils and suppressed Gulf moisture, dew point temperatures look
to say in the middle to upper 60s for most spots during the
worst of the heat, so peak index values look to reach the upper
90s to lower 100s late in the week, which would be below heat
headline levels.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. There is some uncertainty about overnight BR/FG
development around sunrise, especially for KSTJ. Current
guidance suggests winds will be light, but just strong enough to
curtail fog development. Otherwise some diurnal CU is expected
through the daytime hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Snyder
AVIATION...Pesel