St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

309
FXUS63 KEAX 091120
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
520 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mix of rain and snow is likely (50-75%) Friday evening and
  overnight. There is a small chance of minor accumulations
  (10-20% chance for snow amounts greater 0.5").

- Low potential for snow showers Saturday afternoon and early
  evening. It is more probable the area remains dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

The strong shortwave trough that brought the year`s first
convective warnings to the area, has rapidly moved into the
Great Lakes region. The broader upper trough, evident on water
vapor imagery, from the Four-Corners through the Rockies and
into the Northern Plains/ Canadian prairies, will eject another
shortwave into the Central Plains later today. This wave will
begin to affect eastern KS and western MO, with what is more
then likely to be rain, at least initially, starting around 00Z
Saturday. As temperatures cool through the evening and overnight
hours, a transition to snow will occur. But given the positive
tilt to the shortwave, forcing will be limited as the wave
traverses the area. So it looks like as the transition to snow
occurs, we see a general decrease in intensity. Given the setup,
snow amounts, if any at all, will be very minimal. The NBM
shows about a 10-20% chance for half an inch of snow over
northern MO and northeastern. This even looks generous given the
positively tilted trough, lack of strong forcing, and warmer
temperatures. This shortwave exits the area by 12Z Saturday.

During the day Saturday, a stronger PV anomaly moves southward into
the Upper Midwest, clipping northern MO. This stronger wave will
push a strong cold front south during the late afternoon and
evening hours hours. There is some potential for snow showers
with the upper PV rotating southward and along the front surging
south in response. Both the NAM and the GFS show elevated snow-
squall parameter values along the front. The GFS even shows
positive surface-based instability. Forecast soundings for
northern MO show a relatively short period of saturation in the
DGZ during the afternoon and evening hours, before drier air
overtakes the area. So, I can`t rule out some snow showers,
given the setup, but things look more favorable further north,
beneath the core of the upper PV anomaly and where colder
temperatures will be present. The snow squall parameter is also
much more robust further north with stronger positive surface-
based instability as well.

The remainder of the forecast looks mainly dry. There is a strong
clipper system noted early next week that may clip northern MO based
on this suite of guidance. But outside of that the forecast beyond
Saturday looks mainly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

MVFR ceilings will erode from north to south across the TAF
sites this morning, with a period of VFR expected late this
morning into this afternoon. The exception may be IXD, which may
be far enough south for the stubborn cloud deck to persist for
more of the day. As the next system moves in this evening, sub-
VFR ceilings will overspread the terminals, with light rain
developing after 00z. Rain is expected to mix with or change to
snow before ending during the late evening and overnight hours
(03z-08z). MVFR/IFR visibilities may develop if precipitation
fully transitions to snow (most likely at STJ; 60% chance).
After precipitation ends, conditions should quickly become VFR.
Winds will primarily be from the north or northwest today and
tonight from 5-12 kt.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CMS