St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

103
FXUS63 KEAX 112332
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
532 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northwest winds will continue through the afternoon,
  with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph.

- A few sprinkles are possible (25-30%) Thursday morning along
  and east of I-29/I-49.

- Below normal temperatures are expected from Thursday through
  the weekend. The first hard freeze of the year is likely
  Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

The upper-level pattern consists of a high amplitude ridge over
the western CONUS with a trough digging into the eastern CONUS.
Within the trough, several shortwaves are propagating through
the flow, one of which is currently over the upper- and mid-
Mississippi River Valley as of 19Z. At the surface, a low
pressure system is tied to this shortwave and is centered just
south of Lake Michigan. The cold front that is associated with
this system passed through northern MO early this morning and
has resulted in winds being out of the northwest. Despite the
cold front having already passed through, diurnal mixing and
clear skies have allowed temperatures to climb into the 60s
this afternoon. With high pressure to the west, the pressure
gradient over the CWA is fairly tight and is resulting in breezy
conditions, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to
25-30 mph. This is expected to continue through sunset this
evening when mixing subsides and the low pressure system drifts
far enough east to relax the pressure gradient overhead.

Another shortwave is expected to move through the pattern
tonight into tomorrow, dropping another cold front towards the
area. As the cold front approaches the area, low-level moisture
ahead of the front will keep RH values near 100% despite an
influx of mid-level dry air. While the best forcing will remain
east of the area, closer to the core of the shortwave, enough
lift may (25-30% chance) be present across northern MO to
squeeze some sprinkles, or perhaps a bit of drizzle, out of the
low-level clouds that are expected to be present tomorrow
morning. The most favorable timing for this looks to be between
6 AM and 12 PM for areas along and east of I-29/I-49. As the
shortwave continues to move southeast, forcing will subside and
the forecast returns to a dry state tomorrow afternoon. This
second cold front will also bring another shot of cooler air to
the area, which will help to limit high temperatures to the
upper 40s and lower 50s tomorrow.

High pressure begins to build into the Lower Missouri River
Valley tomorrow afternoon, which will allow winds to become very
light (less than 5 mph) and skies to clear through the
overnight period. Temperatures are expected to drop into the
upper 20s to around 30F across northern MO by Friday morning.
This will likely result in the first hard freeze of the year,
however, with the growing season already behind us, no
Frost/Freeze products will be issued. This will still be a
situation to protect any sensitive outdoor plants despite the
lack of any headlines.

The upper-level trough is expected to remain parked over the
eastern CONUS through the weekend resulting in a rather
consistent forecast from day to day. Highs will largely be in
the upper 40s and lower 50s each day, with lows dropping into
the upper 20s and lower 30s each night. This forecast is 5-10
degrees below the seasonal normals for this time of year.

The next chance for precipitation comes Sunday afternoon into
Monday morning (20-30% along and south of the MO River) as a
shortwave moves across the Central Plains. Model guidance has
been shifting this feature further south with each run, so
trends will need to be monitored over the coming forecast cycles
to determine the exact placement of any precipitation.

Mid-level ridging is expected to shift over the central CONUS
early next week, bringing height rises and low-level WAA to the
area. This will allow temperatures to climb back towards, or
sightly above, seasonal normals (mid-50s) through the first
half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout the period with NNW winds
around 10 kts. Additional cloud cover is anticipated to build
back into the region Thursday morning...trends suggest less
cloud cover and higher cloud bases overall but will continue
monitoring the low potential for MVFR CIGs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Carothers
AVIATION...Macko