St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

569
FXUS63 KEAX 010703
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
203 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread showers and storms are likely (50 to
  80%) through early Wednesday morning.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected (90 to 100%)
  Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Locally heavy
  rainfall will be possible. Strong to severe storms are
  possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

- Another round of showers and storms are likely (60 to 90%)
  Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Strong to severe
  storms will be possible once again.

- Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely across the
  region by Saturday, with isolated higher amounts possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Current radar imagery (as of 2:00 AM CDT) shows numerous
showers and storms ongoing across the area. This convection will
continue through the early morning hours as it slowly
progresses off to the east/northeast. A cold/stationary front is
draped across the far southern portion of area which is
resulting in the storms being elevated in nature. The main
threats with these storms are marginally severe hail and heavy
downpours, which may lead to flash flooding if training occurs.

A brief break in shower/storm activity is expected Wednesday
morning, although overcast and gloomy conditions will remain
through the day. A trough is expected to ejected from the
Rockies Wednesday, becoming slightly negatively tilted as it
moves across the Great Plains. This will be the focus of our
next round of showers and storms Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday morning. The Wednesday afternoon threat seems to be
diminished a bit from previous model runs, likely owing to
cloud cover remaining present through the day and instability
values struggling to build. In the 00Z guidance, most CAMs
struggle to convect at all Wednesday afternoon, however, the
conditional threat of strong to severe storms does still exist
if clearing is able to occur given the 40-50 kts of deep layer
shear.

However, at this point, the primary focus is on the round of
showers and storms that could produce severe weather Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. As the trough ejects, surface
cyclogenesis will occur in the lee of the Rockies. The
stationary front that is currently across the southern portion
of the CWA will lift northward as a warm front Wednesday evening
bringing moisture return to the area in the form of PWAT values
around 1.50" (99th percentile for April). Showers and storms
are expected to begin late Wednesday afternoon and persist
through the night, which brings the concern of flooding into
play, particularly in areas that saw heavy rainfall Wednesday
morning. As the low pressure system moves just north of the
area, a strong cold front will advance across the area early
Thursday morning, bringing the primary severe threat. Storms are
expected to form along the cold front with the main threats
being damaging winds and perhaps an embedded tornado or two.
Storms will exit the area with the front Thursday leaving behind
dry conditions for the majority of the day on Thursday.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The dry stretch behind the mid-week system will not be long
lived as another trough is expected to eject into the Central
Plains on Friday. Surface cyclogenesis will occur on Friday with
the cyclone currently progged to follow a remarkably similar
path to the system on Thursday. The CWA will be placed in a
broad warm sector Friday afternoon with 2000-3000 J/kg of of
SBCAPE expected to build. This will once again bring the
possibility of strong to severe storms with the SPC currently
having the area in a day 4 Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). A cold
front will pass Friday evening/night, which will bring an end to
shower/storm chances through the extended. In total, widespread
rainfall values of 2-4" are expected across the area with
locally higher amounts possible.

High pressure will build into the area Saturday with clearing
skies, which may create a setup for a freeze Saturday night.
Lows are currently expected to be in the low 30s, so this is
something to keep an eye on in the coming days. Temperatures
will return to the 60s by early next week creating more of a
spring-like feel.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Scattered convection that is ongoing across the area will
continue to impact all four terminals over the next couple of
hours. Heavy rain will create visibility restrictions within any
storms that directly impact the terminals. Ceilings will lower
through the early morning hours with IFR conditions expected to
arrive at all four terminals between 12Z and 14Z. Despite
several hours of dry conditions, IFR CIGs will persist through
the TAF period, with the exception of KIXD which should improve
to MVFR CIGs Wednesday evening.

Another round of showers is expected to move into the area
from south to north Wednesday afternoon, bringing lowered
visibility. The best chance for convection and heavy rainfall
will be after 03Z. Winds will remain around 10 kts through the
TAF period, shifting from northeasterly to easterly by daybreak
and then to southerly through the evening Wednesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carothers
LONG TERM...Carothers
AVIATION...Carothers