St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

603
FXUS63 KEAX 012319
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds to continue through sunset tonight, with
  cooler/drier weather through early next week.

- Next chances (40-60%) for precipitation increasing by
  Wednesday evening into Thursday morning across northern
  Missouri.

- Temperatures rising by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Earlier showers have subsided this afternoon with the gradual exit
of a surface cyclone off to the east, with high pressure building in
from the west. The vertical profile of this surface cyclone has
remained stacked through the morning and early afternoon, with
marginal dCVA shifting the primary upper-level trough off towards
the east at a snail`s pace. As a result, cloud cover has persisted
over much of central/eastern MO, with sustained north/northwesterly
advection providing cooler and drier air to the forecast area. This
synoptic setup is helping to dampen temperatures for today across
central/eastern MO, where cloud cover is preventing substantial
surface heating through the day. However, for areas further
north/west where the sun has emerged through the clouds,
temperatures have risen more near the 80s. This synoptic setup has
also prompted a strong pressure gradient to develop between the
slowly retreating upper-level trough and approaching upper-level
ridge. Gusts of 35-40 mph have been observed across the area as low-
level winds mix down to the surface alongside ambient winds around
15-20 mph, keeping the day pleasant albeit a little windy.

As the surface cyclone and upper-level trough continue their slow
retreat off towards the east, the aforementioned upper-level ridge
will continue pushing into the central CONUS from the west. As this
occurs, skies will clear out and winds will slow under a lessening
pressure gradient force. There is some potential for fog development
across northern MO tonight with these conditions setting up,
especially for areas that saw rainfall earlier today. However, with
sustained winds still remaining higher overnight, this potential
would remain patchy at best. The remainder of the weekend will
remain pleasant with continued advection of cooler, drier air under
a northerly wind pattern, before surface winds shift out of the
south by the beginning of the week. The forecast remains dry through
early midweek, with temperatures slowly climbing into the mid/high
80s across much of the forecast area.

By Tuesday, the upper-level ridge will continue getting pushed
off towards the east by shortwave disturbances at the base of an
upper-level trough near the Hudson Bay, placing the forecast
area under quasi-zonal flow. Under this flow pattern, PoPs
increase by midweek from several low-level shortwaves traversing
the flow between the upper-level trough to the north and a
building ridge over the southwestern CONUS. Deterministic and
probabilistic guidance continue highlighting northern MO for the
greatest potential for precipitation during this period
(40-60%) by Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. However,
some finer details of the forecast still remain uncertain at
this time, making it difficult to ascertain exact hazards. With
this consistent signal, future forecasts will need to monitor
this system for greater confidence in evolving threats. Beyond
this, greater deviation in synoptic guidance continues to
decrease confidence in the evolution of the forecast through the
end of next week regarding future PoPs. Under consistent
southerly flow in the lowest levels of the atmosphere,
temperatures by the end of the forecast look to rise into the
high 80s and low 90s.

&&


.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Isolated to scattered cumulus will persist through around
sunset, after which sky conditions are expected to improve to
SKC. Breezy and gusty northerly winds will also continue through
sunset before calming to 5-10 kts sustained overnight. Some fog
may be able to develop across north-central/northeastern
Missouri late tonight, though winds may not be light enough to
permit development. With the surface low moving away, winds
will become increasingly northeasterly by tomorrow afternoon
while surface high pressure builds in up north.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...Macko