St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

599
FXUS63 KEAX 012016
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Humid conditions continue today making it feel quite
  unpleasant (heat indexes in the 90s), more comfortable
  conditions return Tuesday.

- Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
  possible this afternoon and evening mainly across far northern
  and central MO.

- Next chances for notable precipitation come late week into
  next weekend.

- Extended guidance suggests heat and humidity returning next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Ridging builds behind the storms from last night and early this
morning. This quiets the skies down for a while; however, heavily
saturated low layer from last night`s storms keeps dew points in the
upper 60s to 70s for most bringing another soupy day across the
area. Temperatures rise into 80s with heat index values looking to
eclipse 90 for many, especially south of the MO River.

The good news is that there is a drier air mass making its way into
the area for Tuesday. This airmass is transiting along the flow of a
digging trough across the eastern CONUS. CAM guidance suggests a
small surface moisture gradient descending into NE MO later this
afternoon which couple with a passing upper level shortwave may
prompt a few scattered showers with enough instability in the air
for a thunderstorms or two. Most storm development is expected to be
in far northern MO as well as central MO. Northerly upper level flow
dominates the region midweek. High pressure continues to build into
the central eastern CONUS pushing the primary flow westward keeping
precipitation at bay midweek. This cooler, drier air mass will make
conditions a little more comfortable, though southerly midlevel flow
keeps temperatures in the mid-80s through the week.

High pressure begins to slide eastward late Thursday into Friday
bringing the next substantial opportunity for precipitation. A
progressive longwave trough and several short waves combined with
steady southerly warm air advection and moisture transport keep
precipitation chances around through the weekend. Timing and storm
type remain uncertain at this time.

Looking further into next week, strong ridging looks to start
building across the central CONUS. This could be the beginning
signal of a pattern change towards more summer like conditions (i.e.
hot and humid). Probabilistic guidance shows 50 to 75 percent
chances of at least moderately hazardous heat with 25 to 30 percent
chances of majorly hazardous heat. Early deterministic numbers show
heat indicies potentially reaching the mid 90s heading towards 100F
for some areas. Ensemble spread does show some perturbations in the
flow that could disrupt this outlook, but our small samples
yesterday and today so that the seasonal summer heat is
approaching.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

An area of low BKN clouds overshadows the terminals keeping
conditions just under VFR. Sky coverage is expected to become
more SCT to FEW as the afternoon goes on although CIGs may
remain between 2kft-5kft. Otherwise winds remain generally
northeasterly looking to become more easterly overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Pesel