St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

721
FXUS63 KEAX 300829
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
229 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered flurries possible this afternoon. The chance
  for anything to accumulate is <10%.

- Bitter cold tonight into Saturday. Wind chill values as cold
  as -14 early Saturday morning.

- Another low chance for snow late Saturday into Sunday. Chance for
  measurable snow is highest across northern MO and probabilities
  drop quickly for amounts greater than 1".

- Another chance for precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Water vapor imagery from early this morning shows a robust shortwave
trough diving southward through MN. This system is moisture-starved
with limited lift as it is moving through the forecast area later
today. None-the-less, we should see about 10,000 feet of saturation
that is nearly entirely in the dendritic growth zone, with cloud
bases as low as 1500 to 2500 feet. Given that, it looks like
flurries are possible across most of the forecast area, with the
most-likely area being eastern KS and western MO late in the morning-
early in the afternoon, spreading east during the afternoon to
evening hours. There is at best a 10% chance for any accumulating
snow (>0.1") in eastern KS and western MO. Most of the forecast is
less than 5% for anything to accumulate.

That shortwave trough will help to push a cold front southward
through the area, will bring another shot of bitterly cold air.
By Saturday morning, a strong 1040+ mb high settles over Kansas
as temperatures drop below zero across eastern KS and Missouri.
Our area may be spared the coldest temperatures with the high
centered to our west and but we`ll still see sheltered and
drainage areas across the area with well below zero low
temperatures Saturday morning. With winds diminishing as the
surface high moves in, apparent temperatures fall to as cold as
-14 across northwestern MO and eastern KS. For now, will hold
off on any Cold Weather Headlines.

There is another chance for light snow Saturday night into Sunday.
Another shortwave trough will move through the area Saturday night
through Sunday afternoon. This system has slightly better moisture
than the Friday system, though still very limited. With deeper
saturation and some isentropic ascent, flurries to light snow is
possible The highest probability for accumulating snow (>0.1") is
across northern MO. Though the entire forecast area does have some
probability of this occurring. When bumping totals to 1",
probabilities fall significantly, with just a 5-10% chance for an
inch of snow north of Highway 136. Overall, little if any snow is
expected, but there may be a dusting across northern MO.

Tuesday into Wednesday next week, a stronger shortwave will move
across the middle of the country. Much better moisture will advect
north into the region, ahead of the shortwave trough. This will
bring a chance of precipitation to the area. It will depend on the
timing of the precipitation, but there is low probability (5-10%),
for freezing rain and a 15-50% chance for accumulating snow in a
gradient from southwest to northeast. It`s also possible that when
the precipitation is falling, the air temperatures, and temperatures
aloft, are above freezing. The one caveat here is if that will be
enough to warm ground temperatures, given the prolonged well below
normal temperatures we`ve experienced recently. If ground
temperatures are slow to warm above freezing, freezing rain is
possible. These timing and temperature details will continue to
fluctuate through the weekend into early next week. So this
system will need to be watched close for the possibility of
mixed/ freezing precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected overnight into tomorrow morning. By
late in the morning to early in the afternoon, lower clouds will
build into the area with potential for MVFR ceilings. Ceilings
look lower further west and KIXD may see low MVFR ceilings for
period of time tomorrow afternoon, along with a period of light
snow leading to some visibility reduction. Winds will generally
be from the east-northeast overnight into tomorrow, then trend
to the north behind the front that lowers ceilings and brings
the chances for light snow to eastern KS.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB