St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

570
FXUS63 KEAX 021121
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
621 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026


...12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, fall-like, temperatures expected this weekend.
Temperatures trend back above normal mid-late next week.

- Dry conditions are expected through the entire forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Ascent is quickly fading away this morning as the the upper-level
wave shifts to the east and cooler, drier air moves southward in the
lower-levels. This will result in continued weakening of the already
weak radar returns showing up as of 07Z. In fact, anticipate
precipitation to have completely wound down by 12Z. With
increasing subsidence, skies should clear out quickly as well,
and this can already be seen upstream across Nebraska and Iowa
in the Nighttime Microphysics RGB satellite imagery. At the
surface, that cooler and drier air is being ushered into the
region with a 1025mb surface high sliding south out of Canada
and into the Plains. That high pressure will be primary
influence on our weather through Saturday, leading to highs
today in the mid 60s, about 10 degrees below normal, with some
recovery for Saturday as the high shifts into the eastern Great
Lakes. Saturday evening/night, another shortwave will track
across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This will move
another cold front south through the area with another push of
slightly cooler but continued drier air south into the region.
It really isn`t until the later half of the week, when low-level
flow turns southerly again, that we see a rebound back to above
normal temperatures. Normal high temperatures for mid to late
next week are in the lower 70s and we`ll see highs about 10
degrees above normal for this time of year, based on the
available guidance.

With little or no moisture return into the area, as well as an
absence of any shortwave moving through the area, precipitation
chances are slim to none for the next week at least. We have a dry
forecast going right now and based on available guidance, there is
nearly no chance for rain over the next week. The one caveat,
at this point, would be Wednesday, when a weak front moves into
the area. Still, the probability of even seeing a hundredth of
an inch is only around 5-10%.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with light
northerly to northeasterly winds. There may be a few gusts
around 15kts this morning but overall trend will be for
weakening northeasterly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB