St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

702
FXUS63 KEAX 281132
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
532 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...Updated 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy Snow North-Central to Northeast Missouri

- Rain-Snow Mix in Central Missouri

- Rain, Non-Accumulating Snow Western Missouri to Eastern Kansas

- Colder Weather, More Wintry Precipitation Possible Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

H5 trough of interest for the next 36 hours is currently moving
across the Pacific Northwest and digging toward the Rockies and
Front Range, while a deep trough is moving through the Great Lakes
Region. This is allowing a subtle ridge to move across the region
and push a surface anticyclone eastward. Strong dCVA is
occurring over the Front Range and will allow for deep enough
lift for Lee Cyclogenesis as the morning progresses into the
afternoon. This will gradually shift our lower tropospheric
flow more southerly and allow a transport of better moisture
into the region. With the warmer air pushing ahead of the
developing cyclone, increasing isentropic ascent arrives in
eastern Kansas by early to middle of the afternoon and from
there should see an increase in lower-level clouds across the
area. Around this time the ridge axis pushes eastward, starting
a period of mid- level height falls and stronger vorticity
advection that should provide forcing for initial rain/sprinkle
activity during the afternoon. Southwest portions of the
forecast area may see temperatures reach the lower to mid 40s.
Areas in the northeast of our forecast area are only expected to
reach the mid 30s, as the warm front stalls somewhere over
Central Missouri. As the mid-level wave propagates across the
Plains and the cyclone deepens, convergence increases heading
into the evening hours, and so will the precipitation. Far
northwest Missouri may see some snow start with the onset of
precipitation depending on temperatures, while areas south and
southwest should be warm enough to remain rain. Eventually the
forcing spreads into our northeast where temperatures should be
cool enough for snow. The main question remains across Central
Missouri with in the transition zone, as temperatures will hover
right around 31-34F, roughly aligning with where the warm front
will stall.

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for a our
three northeasterly counties, as this area will solidly be in the
sub-freezing temperatures for most of the time that forcing is
present for precipitation. For this area, most of the enhanced
lift and forcing is occurring in the 700-500mb layer, with the
short-wave driving much of it. There will be some low-level
convergence present with the approaching cyclone, but currently
there is not a strong signal for any robust FGEN processes that
we often typically see with stronger mid-latitdue cyclone
systems. Both synoptic scale models and CAMs are showing some
lower static stability in their cross-sectional analysis through
the DGZ that will help to increase the dendrite size. Current
25-75th percentile spread in Putnam, Schuyler, and Adair
Counties is between 4-8". Due to the lack of signal for any kind
of FGEN processes as well as lift over a shallow layer, would
expect it be difficult to reach the 75th percentiles. Profiles
of omega indicate that lift will be fairly shallow, however, it
is present through the DGZ, which is the reason why accumulating
snowfall can be produced. The 00z HREF 1-hr mean snowfall
indicates the onset of this snow between 06-08z. The greatest
hourly snowfall rate depicted by the 00z HREF is around
0.75"/hour. This may be enough to lower visibility to less than
one mile at times. However will point out this is not an overly
robust snowfall rate. With plenty of moisture and stronger warm
conveyor belt with this system, snow to liquid ratios will be
on the lower side, perhaps as low as 8:1. This will also help to
limit snowfall, as well as limit blowing even as winds increase
above 20 MPH. The system should exit late Saturday Night. For a
full view of snowfall probabilities, visit
weather.gov/eax/winter. As of 10z, the probability exceedance
of 4 inches and 6 inches was roughly used as the outline for the
winter weather issuance on this shift.

For areas in Central Missouri along the transition zone and in the
Winter Weather Advisory will be right along a tight wet-bulb
temperature gradient. There is still quite a bit of lift through the
DGZ, but within the lowest 1km of the boundary layer, temperatures
look like they will be fairly warm for a longer duration of when
forcing is available for precipitation. Thus, a mixture of rain-snow
before a transition to over to all snow will be key in the final
snowfall accumulations. A tight gradient is expected in this
area. Even the deterministic models that have insanely high
snowfall amounts from southeast Iowa to Central Illinois also
depict this tight gradient. The 00z HREF has a realistic
picture of this, going from 2" of snowfall to rain only in a
span of only 15-20 miles. It`s a pretty steep drop off as you
move southwest away from the heaviest snow axis. The 00z HREF
did try to produce some light freezing rain within this
transition zone in central Missouri. This could be possible on
some elevated surfaces, but overall pavement temperatures should
remain warm enough to prevent travel impacts. The NBM
probabilities seemed a bit too high, therefore official
forecast has lowered those thus removing the NBM`s ice
accumulations. At this time, no expected ice accumulations in
central Missouri within the transition zone. For the western
portions of the forecast area including Kansas City Area, most
of Friday will see rainfall. If there is enough wrap around
moisture of the exiting cyclone by Saturday Night, a rain-snow
mix is possible. However, during the timing of available forcing
for precipitation, surface temperatures are not much lower than
35F, and could be above 40F. Therefore, it will be tough to
accumulate. Lift through the DGZ will be the main component
producing any kind of snow.

The system exits by mid-day Sunday into the Great Lakes Region, but
another trough moves across the western third of the CONUS. For
Sunday afternoon, this forces a weak mid-level ridge and surface
anticyclone that brings in an polar airmass into the central CONUS.
This will keep high temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s with
overnight lows in the teens. That next trough could bring more
wintry precipitation to the area on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 528 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

High level clouds will be present through most of the day. Winds
will slowly shift toward the south as the high exits. Lower
level cloud cover increases late this afternoon and evening.
Rain showers develop late and continue through most of Saturday.
A period of IFR conditions is expected at STJ and KC metro
terminals with rainfall. Wintry precipitation is forecast over
Central Missouri with IFR conditions, with heavy snow expected
for portions of north-central and northeast Missouri.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
     Saturday night for MOZ003-005-006-015-016-024-025-033.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to midnight CST
     Saturday night for MOZ007-008-017.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull