Springfield, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

844
FXUS63 KSGF 131705
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1205 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and windy conditions will occur today, with wind gusts of
  around 35 to 50 mph at times.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for areas along and west of an
  Osceola to Buffalo to Marshfield to Ozark to Cassville
  Missouri line from 8 am to 5 pm today where the strongest
  winds will occur.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return during the middle of
  the week and again next weekend. Still questions on the exact
  timing of the system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

An area of surface low pressure is located across the central
Plains early this morning. Ahead of the low, gusty southerly
winds are occurring across the area. Warm air advection will
also continue to occur today with 850 mb temperatures warming
into the lower 20C today. This will allow highs to warm into
the lower to middle 80s with some upper 80 readings possible.

The low will continue to move east today across Kansas and into
northern Missouri this afternoon, then into central Illinois
tonight. The pressure gradient will continue to tighten across
the area this morning as the low moves east. Winds will increase
this morning from west to east. Gusts of 45 to 50 mph will
occur at times west of an Osceola to Buffalo to Marshfield to
Ozark to Cassville line this morning as early as 8 AM through
midday. There is some potential for a few isolated gusts up to
around 55 mph at times across these areas. East of the advisory
area, gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will occur at times. The
pressure gradient will start to weaken this afternoon as the low
moves east. Winds will start to gradually weaken this afternoon
into early this evening. Looking at forecast soundings, they
show the potential for mixing to continue through the afternoon.
Even through winds will start to gradually weaken, a few higher
gusts will remain possible at times through the afternoon hours
today. Therefore have issued a Wind Advisory from 8 am this
morning through 5 pm this afternoon. Overall the strongest
winds will be this morning through midday but an occasional
higher gust will remain possible at times through the afternoon
hours.

The warm and windy conditions will also combine with a drier
air mass today as afternoon humidity values drop into the 30 to
35% range with some locations across extreme southeastern Kansas
could drop as low as 25%. Overall the strongest winds will be
prior to the driest RH, but gusty winds will continue through
the afternoon hours to create an elevated fire risk for fuels
that have not greened up yet this spring.

As the low moves east tonight a cold front will move south
through the area into Monday morning. A drier air mass and a
cap will keep the frontal passage mostly dry but cannot rule out
a few sprinkles. Highs will warm into the middle 60s to near 70
Monday afternoon. An upper level trough will move south through
the area Monday night into early Tuesday. A dry air mass will
be in place so not expecting any rain chances with the trough
passage. Highs will again warm into the lower to middle 60s
Tuesday afternoon. A dry air mass will also be in place with
afternoon RH values dropping to 20 to 30% Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will not be as strong but could see a few gusts up to 15
to 25 mph at times. This could lead to some elevated fire
conditions on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

An upper level ridge will move east into the plains on Wednesday
with a warmer air mass starting to advect into the area. Highs
will warm into the 70s Wednesday afternoon. The ensemble model
members show an upper level shortwave trough moving east
through the region ahead of the ridge Wednesday into Thursday
morning. There could be some scattered showers and a few storms
with the trough. A dry air mass will be in place and the better
lift will be to the north of the forecast area with the trough,
so the better rain chances will be north with them decreasing to
the south. Some models keep all of the area dry while others
bring rain chances further south. Overall there is a 30 to 60%
chance for rain during this time mainly north of Highway 60 with
the better chances north of Highway 54.

The ridge and a warmer air mass will move back into the area on
Thursday with highs warming into the 80s. The ensemble models
show a cold front moving towards the area later Friday into the
weekend, but ahead of the front models show that highs warm into
the 80s across much of the area. The models show the front
moving through the area Friday night into Saturday then stalling
somewhere from southern Missouri to northern Arkansas on
Saturday. Showers and storms will be possible with the front.
Models continue to differ from run to run so there is still
uncertainty on the timing and where the front stalls and when it
lifts back north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Gusty surface winds will continue through much of the afternoon
before diminishing this evening as the surface front begins to
move into the area. Winds overnight will become northwesterly.
There will be an increase in cloud cover, but it should remain
VFR. Maybe a few sprinkles or a light shower, but confidence is
pretty low and will not be including in the TAFS.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ066>068-
     077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg