Springfield, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

683
FXUS63 KSGF 251132
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
532 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Nocturnal fog again this morning, with a Dense Fog Advisory in
  effect until 10 AM in the Eastern Ozarks and portions of west-
  central Missouri into southeast Kansas. Fog will also be dense
  in low-lying areas and river valleys, but stay patchy
  elsewhere. Patchy fog again tonight into Friday.

- Gusty winds this afternoon, with sustained southwest winds of
  15-20 mph and gusts up to 20-30 mph, with areas along and west
  of Hwy 65 being windiest.Gusty winds will continue into the
  late evening hours.

- Record highs in the lower to middle 70s are expected through
  Saturday. Clouds may result in temperatures being a little
  cooler than forecasted at times.

- 40-60% rain chances across the area Sunday will precede a
  cooler and drier airmass that moves in early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 415 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Very similar conditions to yesterday, which influenced decision
to err towards persistence forecast for many forecast elements.
Broad but potent upper-level ridging over the central CONUS
maintains its strong grip on the synoptic pattern. In the low-
levels, an anticyclonic circulation is centered over a high
pressure center over the Gulf, with southwesterly flow and
associated warm air advection getting a boost from a 25-30kt
nocturnal LLJ. At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary is
sagging southward through Missouri, identifiable through low-
level water vapor satellite and located right along the
northern edge of the forecast area as of 230 AM. Fog, a low
stratus deck, and some intermittent high clouds are scattered
across the forecast area early this morning.


Fog/Drizzle This Morning:
Drizzle has been taken out of the forecast for the remainder of
the overnight/early morning hours due to lack of sufficient
lift. However, fog is still a concern, especially in the Eastern
Ozarks, where a Dense Fog Advisory is again in effect this
morning until 10 AM due to visibility below a quarter mile. The
cool temperatures in these areas of lower terrain is helping the
saturated layer deepen through these overnight hours, which
should help persistent fog stick around for several hours after
sunrise.

Meanwhile to the north, Nighttime Microphysics RGB imagery shows
the southernmost extent of a widespread fog deck is collocated
with the boundary knocking at the door of our northernmost
counties. Some streaks of dense fog are scattered just north of
the Truman Lake/Lake of the Ozarks reservoirs due to
southwesterly surface winds advecting warm, moist air off the
lakes, with Lake of the Ozarks water temp still 51-53 degrees(!)
which is quite close to the dew points, which are in the mid to
upper 50s. Whether or not the dense fog area to our north sags
far enough south to bring widespread fog to our northwest
counties is still be seen; however, 00Z HREF guidance (and
several other deterministic CAMs) indicates the fog may expand
southward along the plain containing Vernon, St.Clair, Benton,
and Morgan (MO) and Bourbon (KS) counties. HREF provides a
50-70% chance of visibility falling below a quarter mile in
those counties around 6-8AM this morning. These areas may need
to be added to the Dense Fog Advisory if fog begins expanding
outside the river valley.

Beyond these two main areas of concern, there will still be risk
of localized areas of dense fog, especially in the typical low-
lying and river valley areas. However, overall, any fog would be
short-lived, generally only result in marginal visibility
reductions, and cause no impacts.

Fog Tonight:
These same areas will likely experience fog again tonight
(Eastern Ozarks and northwestern counties/Osage River valley).
There are still some questions on whether the front will remain
far enough south to actually impact the northwestern threat
area, or whether the fog in the Eastern Ozarks will be dense
enough and widespread enough to necessitate a DFA again tonight.

Temperatures/Clouds:
More record-setting temperatures will be on the table today (see
Climate section below). We are again looking at highs in the low
to mid 70s, with overnight lows in the low 50s in the far
northwest counties and upper 50s to low 60s elsewhere. While
there is still some uncertainty, generally expecting cloud cover
to be scattered early in the day, with high clouds becoming more
prolific as the day goes on. However, considering the persistent
forecast/conditions this week, opted to keep temperatures
similar to yesterday instead of bumping them up a few degrees
because model soundings suggest similar to slightly cooler
925mb/850mb temperatures compared to the Dec 24 (yesterday`s)
observed KSGF sounding. These temperatures are so beyond the
scope of the climatology that even local research that typically
guides temp forecasts when cloud cover is uncertain can`t
capture the extent of warming.

Winds:
Again looking at breezy conditions this afternoon, with
sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 20-30 mph
again. Areas along and west of Hwy 65 will be windier than areas
east of Hwy 65, though some areas on the top of the plateau/just
north of the top of the plateau may see some local increases in
wind speeds as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Temperatures:
Temps are forecast to stay in the same range as the rest of this
week (low to mid 70s) through Saturday, maybe a degree or two
warmer on Saturday than previous days. Low temps in the low 50s
Friday night and mid to upper 50s Saturday night. Come Sunday
with cold frontal passage, temperature forecast becomes much
more uncertain, with the timing of the front still up in the air
causing uncertainty in timing of high/low temperatures for the
day. Monday will be SIGNIFICANTLY cooler than the weekend,
dropping 30 degrees into the upper 20s/low 30s for highs and
lows into the low 20s/upper teens.

40-60% Rain Chances Sunday, and Maybe Thunder?
The timing of when the synoptic trough will sweep through the
area and send a surge of that cold air across the eastern US has
stabilized a bit, with a slight increase in PoPs during the day
Sunday (40-60%) indicating increased confidence and model
agreement. LREF clusters still indicate uncertainty regarding
both amplitude of the incoming trough as well as differences in
timing, which is leading to lingering uncertainty on frontal
passage timing... may be overnight Saturday into Sunday at
absolute earliest, or late Sunday night at latest. With several
hundred J/kg of CAPE anticipated with the frontal passage, we do
have showers and thunderstorms as the current weather forecast
for Sunday.

The Extreme Forecast Index suggests that unusually high values
of CAPE (index of 0.77 on a scale of 0.0-1.0) as well as
unusually high CAPE/Shear combination (0.68 on the same scale)
for this time of year will be present on Sunday. Paired with a
low (0) Shift of Tails value, confidence among EPS members is
high in an unusual CAPE/shear setup for the end of December, but
that an extreme event is unlikely. NBM mean SBCAPE values are
around 100-200 J/kg and concentrated along a narrow corridor;
LREF mean MUCAPE values are 400-500 J/kg along the same
corridor, which suggests that these storms may be elevated and
constrained to along the front. Some ML algorithms do still
highlight this area for a 5% chance of severe thunderstorms, so
some severe thunderstorms still can`t be ruled out, but overall
confidence in severe storms occurring remains very low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Despite dense fog across much of Missouri and Kansas, the
terminals should remain free of impacts from dense fog this
morning, though there could be some scattered low clouds and/or
some VFR BR visibility reductions, with the saturated near-
surface layer being fairly shallow.

Winds will be southwesterly again today sustained 10-15 kts with
gusts up to 25 kts, remaining gusty into this evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025


December 24 Temperature Records Broken:

New Record High Temperatures:
KSGF: 75 (previously 74/1955)
KJLN: 77 (previously 75/2021)
KUNO: 75 (previously 74/1955)

New Record Warm Low Temperatures:
KSGF: 57 (previously 54/1889)
KJLN: 62 (previously 58/2021)
KVIH: 53 (previously 52/1982)



Record High Temperatures:

December 25:
KSGF: 74/1889
KJLN: 72/2016
KVIH: 71/1971
KUNO: 74/2021

December 26:
KSGF: 68/2008
KJLN: 75/2021
KVIH: 72/1971
KUNO: 73/1971

December 27:
KSGF: 71/2005
KJLN: 70/2008
KVIH: 69/2008
KUNO: 74/1971

December 28:
KJLN: 69/1984
KVIH: 62/2019
KUNO: 69/1984


Record Warm Low Temperatures:

December 25:
KSGF: 58/1889
KJLN: 52/2016
KVIH: 46/2019
KUNO: 47/2021

December 26:
KSGF: 54/1942
KJLN: 56/1954
KVIH: 55/1971
KUNO: 50/2019

December 27:
KSGF: 71/2005
KJLN: 70/2008
KVIH: 69/2008
KUNO: 74/1971

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ073.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ055-056-
     066-067-082-092-096>098-105-106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden