Rolla, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

848
FXUS63 KSGF 242302
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
602 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances return Tuesday (30-70%) with additional chances through
  the end of next week. There will be periods of dry weather
  during this time between rounds of rain.

- The area is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
  Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Localized flooding will be a
  concern for locations that see multiple rounds of rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows an upper level trough east of the area with
another disturbance over Texas. 12z KSGF sounding continues to
show plentiful low level moisture and visible satellite shows a
cumulus field over the southeast half of the area. Surface high
pressure was moving into the area with light north winds and
temps in the 70s.

Dry and Mild Conditions through Memorial Day: No hazardous
weather is expected as surface high pressure remains in control
with upper level energy remaining south of the area. Winds
should gradually turn southeasterly tonight through Memorial Day.
Latest REFS guidance keeps fog potential much lower than
previous nights however wouldn`t be surprised to see some
patchy fog out near West Plains. Abundant sunshine and slightly
warmer 850mb temps will allow for highs to reach the upper 70s
and lower 80s on Memorial Day. It should be an ideal day for
outdoor activities.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Increasing Rain Chances Tuesday Onward: Latest ensemble guidance
is in decent agreement early/mid week but then diverges by the
end of week/weekend. There is decent agreement that the energy
south of the area will lift north into the area on Tuesday. This
is likely due to a stronger low moving into the western US.
Latest REFS guidance lifts rain chances through the area during
the afternoon and evening hours during peak heating. Mean CAPE
is currently less than 1000j/kg and mean 0-6km shear is less
than 25kts therefore not seeing a severe threat at this time.
Mean PW values however look to climb to around 1.5in which could
allow for efficient rainfall rates. Highs on Tuesday will
likely be coolest across the south and warmest northwest of
Springfield.

Beyond Tuesday, it appears that the western US trough will be
slow with spokes of energy occasionally ejecting out into the
central US, giving us periodic rain chances. One such wave
appears to move into the central US on Wednesday and another on
Thursday. However ensembles really diverge towards the end of
the week as there is considerable spread on what happens with
the western US trough and energy sliding south through the Great
Lakes region. This looks like a decent blocking pattern which
makes it difficult to pin down exact time periods of
rainfall chances. Currently the highest rain chances are
Thursday and Friday (70-80%) however expect additional changes
as we get a better handle on the upper level pattern. Given the
multiple chances for rainfall, the area is in a broad marginal
risk for excessive rainfall. This generally equates to
localized flooding chances if locations experience repeated
rounds of rainfall. Temperatures will also be impacted by these
rain chances with Wednesday looking like the warmest day of the
week with many areas in the 80s. Temps may drop back into the
70s for late week if the daily rain chances materialize.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

For the 00z TAFS, high pressure has moved into the area behind
the frontal boundary which brought showers and thunderstorms to
the area yesterday afternoon and evening. Drier air associated
with the air mass will keep a mostly clear sky over the area
during the TAF period. Have added a tempo group for MVFR fog at
BBG towards sunrise. Winds should be light and veer around to
the east on Monday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Lindenberg