Rolla, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

306
FXUS63 KSGF 230848
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
248 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through the weekend, with highs near to above
  normal. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected Sunday.

- Rain chances increase next Wednesday and Thursday. Uncertainty
  remains on the timing of highest rain chances.

- High confidence on below normal temperatures returning mid
  next week lasting into early December.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: A large mid level mid
ridge could be seen stretching from the Rockies into the Central
Plains which will begin to transition our area out of the
northwest flow pattern. An upper level low continues to spin off
the west coast. Moisture remains scarce all the way south into
the Gulf of Mexico where dewpoints remained below 50. However a
very narrow corridor of higher dews was seen beginning to curl
up the western Gulf. This will be important for the Sunday night
system. A high pressure axis was currently sliding through with
many areas reporting calm winds this morning. Other than some
passing high clouds, most areas were clear with temps ranging
from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

Today through Tonight: As high pressure continues to slide east,
winds will become increasingly southerly however speeds will
remain light. 850mb temps will increase through the day and even
with passing high clouds we should see highs ranging from the
middle 50s northeast of Springfield to the lower 60s west of
Springfield. A low level jet will develop tonight across Kansas
and Oklahoma. This jet will begin to nose into the area and will
keep wind speeds up across areas west of Springfield. This will
likely lead to a wide range in low temps tonight. Locations east
of Springfield will drop into the middle to upper 30s while
areas west of Springfield will stay in the upper 40s to around
50.

Sunday through Sunday Night: Shortwave energy will move
northeast into the Rockies during the day with low pressure and
a cold front located across Kansas. A 50kt 850mb low level jet
looks to remain over the area during the day. This will
transport warmer air into the area with mean 850mb temps of
12-14C. Conditional climatology studies would suggest highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s depending on cloud cover which
matches latest NBM guidance. HREF guidance continues to indicate
the increasing probability for a narrow corridor of low level
clouds to move up into the area during the day which will be a
factor for high temps and wind gusts. Given the low level jet
overhead during the day, gusty winds look likely to mix down.
Latest HREF guidance continues to suggest a greater than 80%
chance for wind gusts over 30mph during the day with 50% probs
for gusts at least 40mph. We will need to monitor for any
additional increases in these wind gusts. Highest gusts will
occur along and west of Highway 65.

The cold front looks to enter the area late Sunday night into
early Monday morning. Models may be too strong with the moisture
return (suggesting dewpoints reach the middle 50s) and thinking
a narrow corridor of low level moisture will make it into the
area as the front moves through. Inspection of ensemble model
soundings shows this potential for a saturated low level layer
with drier air aloft. Therefore patchy drizzle may be the player
here as the front moves through with the highest chances east
of Springfield. Frontal interaction with the Ozark Plateau may
also allow for drizzle along the I-44 corridor. The chance of
measurable precipitation remains less than 30 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Monday through Tuesday: Much cooler temps are expected behind
the cold front that will have cleared the area Monday morning.
Low level cold air advection seems likely Monday with temps
falling through the day with breezy north winds. Surface high
pressure looks to slide over the area late Monday night into
Tuesday with a cold night expected as lows fall well into the
20s with highs on Tuesday remaining in the middle to upper 40s.

Wednesday through Friday: A more active pattern will occur as
shortwave energy moves through the Rockies towards the Central
Plains. Inspection of ensembles continues to show differences in
the timing of this shortwave however the overall track and
structure seems to be in decent agreement. The progressive/open
wave nature of this system will likely limit the amount of
moisture/precip chances however strong upper level support will
be present. Precip chances (rain) look to increase during the
day Wednesday as a front moves through. These rain chances will
linger into Wednesday night. The main question is how long
precip chances linger for Thanksgiving day. If the system does
indeed remain fairly progressive then a quicker exit of precip
would occur before colder air aloft moves in and changes things
over to any snow. The chance of any rain mixing in with or
changing over to snow on Thanksgiving remains less than 20
percent and confined to areas along and north of Highway 54.
Warm air and ground temperatures will also be a limiting factor
for snow with highs in the 40s to around 50 Wednesday and
Thursday. That being said, the system will not get sampled by
the upper air network until early next week therefore additional
updates are likely.

Cold air still looks to drop south behind this system and
ensembles are suggesting a split flow regime setting up for
several days after Thursday with a dry and cold northwest flow
aloft across our area and a warmer, southern jet stream located
well south of the area. This also fits the latest CPC outlooks
of below average temperatures going into early December.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Upper level northwesterly flow will allow surface high pressure
to build into the region this evening and into Saturday
afternoon. This will allow for light and variable winds through
Saturday morning with a shift to light southerly winds by the
afternoon. With clear skies, VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Hatch