Raytown, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

594
FXUS63 KEAX 212306
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers possible this afternoon and evening. Some
isolated thunderstorms possible overnight across west-central MO.

- Below normal temperatures continue for the next few days.

- Rain returns for the weekend. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms expected Friday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

A fairly dynamic forecast in store although there may not be too
much to see of it as much of these dynamics will result in generally
mild conditions over the area. A pair of lows one sitting across the
Great Lakes and another developing across the OK/KS border define a
kinematic boundary sitting across southern NE extending through
southwest MO. Overnight LLJ action across the northern Plains drags
in cooler drier air along with general height rises which has
resulted in much of the day being fairly sunny with some cloud cover
thanks to moisture transport at higher levels. As the day has
progressed, the baroclinic and kinematic boundaries between these
two lows has become more defined setting up for the potential for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon
and evening into the overnight. This boundary has been slowly
sagging southward through the day. Isentropic charts showing weak
ascent and vertical profiles showing decent moisture transport at
upper levels which could facilitate the development of
sprinkles/showers this afternoon. The primary challenge is that low
levels remain relatively dry creating some skepticism that rain will
fully manifest to the surface. Chances for showers and storms
increase after sunset for areas south of I-70; however, the drier
low levels still pose a challenge through the night. That said, it
would not be surprising to see a few showers develop overnight.
Confidence is higher for showers and a few isolated thunderstorms
across the far southern portions of the CWA (Linn (KS), Bates, and
Henry counties) where convective variables are a bit more favorable.
Strong to severe potential is more favored south of the CWA
congruent with the latest SPC Day 1 outlook issued at 1130AM;
however, an isolated strong gusty winds and small hail is possible
given the favorable shear profile and lapse rates. The severe
potential remains a bit farther to the south and west.

Ridging builds in tomorrow as a surface high pressure moves in from
the north. This pushes clouds out behind the overnight activity
bringing forth sunny and cool conditions for Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures remain below normal with highs ranging from the mid
60s to 70 degrees Thursday. Persistent NW flow keeps temperatures
below normal through the next 5 days.

The weekend outlook continues to remain wet. While upper level
ridging looks to dominated the central CONUS, a upper level trough
settles across the western CONUS. This trough ejects multiple
shortwaves into the central CONUS developing multiple lee troughs
which traverse the region. Midlevel flow primarily out of the south
advects ample warm air and moisture across the area setting up the
potential for multiple rounds of widespread showers and storms.
Model guidance has been generally keeping the baroclinic zones along
and south of I-70, primarily the warm front. This looks to keep the
stronger to potentially severe storms well to our south; however, it
sets up a potential for training storms which could lead to
flooding, especially given recent rain totals. This slow moving
system keeps rain chances around through the day Monday. The
extended outlook keeps the pattern more or less status quo
suggesting another break mid next week before the potential for
another expansive storm system in the 10-14 day outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Showers coming out of SE NE/NRN KS are diurnally driven and are
weakening already so have opted for a VCSH thru 03Z-05Z in the
poss that they may make it as far east as the TAF sites. Otrw,
conds should remain VFR with sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds thru 15Z
aft which sct-bkn cu around 5kft is fcst. Winds will be out of
the N btn 5-10kts thru 15Z when they will increase out of the
NNW to around 10kts with gusts around 20kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...73