Ozark, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

694
FXUS63 KSGF 201945
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15-30% chance for the southern edge of a thunderstorm complex
  to bring a few thunderstorms to far northern parts of our
  forecast area in central MO tonight.

- 15-20% chance for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms
  across south-central Missouri Monday afternoon.

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through 7 PM Thursday.
  Daily Heat Index values in excess of 100 degrees and warm
  overnight lows will result in an extended period of heat
  danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Synoptic pattern is, and will continue to be, a copy-paste
picture with a pronounced mid- and upper-level ridge sitting
over the south-central and southeast CONUS with enhanced zonal
flow and embedded shortwaves across the northern CONUS. This is
allowing mostly clear skies to be in place across southern
Missouri. A belt of rain is noted on radar imagery across
north- central Missouri within the enhanced flow north of the
ridge and along a surface baroclinic boundary. This is expected
to stay north of the area for much of today.


Heat Index values in excess of 100 degrees to continue:

Observed temperatures are currently in the lower 90s,
which is just above normal for this time of year. However,
observed dewpoints in the middle 70s are above the 90th
percentile for this time of year, according to the SPC Sounding
Climatology. This is allowing Heat Index values to climb into
the middle 100s across the region, with some stations reading
above 105, which is above normal climatology. The lower Heat
Index values (95 to 100) are across the Ozark Plateau where
drier air aloft mixing to the plateau surface is keeping
humidity a bit lower. Other areas off the Plateau, observed Heat
Index values are upwards of 105-110. This pattern is expected
to stick around for the foreseeable future, prompting the
Excessive Heat Warning for multiple days.

A contributing factor to the heat risk is consistently warm
nighttime temperatures. Tonight, lows are expected to stay in
the lower to middle 70s.


15-30% chance for a few thunderstorms north of Hwy 54 tonight:

Along the front and current belt of rain, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop, potentially
into a thunderstorm complex during the overnight hours. If
thunderstorm activity stays relatively scattered, chances of
rain should stay north of our area. If cold pools from the
thunderstorms can sufficiently conglomerate into a thunderstorm
complex overnight, models bring low-end chances (15-30%) for
lingering showers and thunderstorms to enter our far northern
CWA (north of Hwy 54) late tonight, generally after midnight. A
Marginal (1 of 5) Risk clips Morgan, Miller, Maries, and Benton
counties to accommodate this chance as the thunderstorm complex
will bring a low-end chance (5%) for wind gusts up to 60 mph.


15-20% chance for isolated storms in south-central MO Monday:

The east-west oriented baroclinic boundary across north-central
Missouri will take on a more NW-SE orientation Monday as the
mid-level ridge axis amplified across MO. Given the weak nature
of the boundary, some slight deviations in the position will be
possible based on strength and track of overnight storms, but
current short-term model guidance suggests it will be just
northeast of our area. That being said, convergence ahead of the
front may be enough to force some isolated showers and
thunderstorms across south-central MO Monday afternoon,
especially around the Lake of the Ozarks, Rolla-Vichy, and Salem
areas (15-20% chance). In this area, the Ozarks Pulse (Severe)
Thunderstorm Index is highlighting medium to high potential for
pulse thunderstorms that could produce wind gusts up to 40-60
mph thanks to elevated instability, vertical totals, and low-
level lapse rates. These will likely need some environmental
convergence to develop due to convective temperatures from our
latest balloon soundings trending in the 95-100 F range, which
will be difficult to achieve. These storms would be isolated and
small in nature and dissipate after sunset.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Extreme Heat Warning continues through at least Thursday:

The discussion for the Short Term forecast is valid through at
least Thursday as the ridge stays in place, allowing highs in
the middle 90s and unseasonably moist dewpoints creating Heat
Index values consistently in the 100-110 range. Once again,
while mid-90 temperatures are not too far above normal for this
time of year, the unseasonable moisture is allowing for above
normal Heat Index values contributing to the risk.

There may be a slight decrease in Heat Index values during the
middle of this weak as the ridge begins to flatten to our east,
and slightly drier air filters in. However, the longevity of
the high Heat Index values paired with lows in the lower to
middle 70s will steadily increase Heat Risk, especially to
people most vulnerable to heat (elderly, outdoor workers, and
those without proper cooling). Make sure to have ways to stay
cool this week!


Potential for additional Heat Headlines in the extended forecast:

The CPC continues to highlight potential above normal
temperatures and Heat Index values into this weekend and next
week as cluster analysis is in great agreement of a deep and
pronounced upper-level high building in from the west. They
continue to place our area in a 40-70% chance for >105 Heat
Index values which correlates to a 40-70% chance for Heat
Headlines at least one of the days in the extended range (July
26 to August 3rd).


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VFR conditions to prevail through the entire TAF period with
10-15 kts southwesterly winds and SCT high clouds. Through 00Z,
a 4 kft cu field will be present, along with periodic gusts up
to 20-25 kts at SGF and JLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price