Ozark, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

812
FXUS63 KSGF 040441
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1041 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy southwest winds increase Wednesday morning. Wind gusts
  of 25-35 mph are likely.

- Warmer temperatures briefly return for Wednesday before colder
  air moves in on Thursday. Wind chills will drop into the
  single digits across central MO early Thursday morning.

- Precipitation chances are very low (less than 20 percent)
  through Sunday morning. Precip chances increase by Monday
  however confidence remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows the northwest flow pattern locked in place
across the central US with a upper level low cutoff across
California. Surface high pressure, which brought us the very
cold morning, has slid southeast of the area. Southerly winds
have returned however temps have only risen into the upper 30s
to lower 40s which is 10-15 deg below normal. Another batch of
cold air was moving southeast across western/central Canada.
Skies were mostly clear across the area however a small batch of
clouds was located on the leading edge of low level warm air
advection across southeast Kansas, moving east.

Through Wednesday: The 850mb flow will become westerly through
tonight with increasing low level warm air advection. The low
levels will become mixed overnight with southwest winds
gradually increasing. This will keep low temps about 10-15
degrees warmer than last night. Locations east of Springfield
will drop into the middle to upper 20s with lower to middle 30s
expected elsewhere.

Latest HREF and NBM data continues to suggest wind gusts of
25-35 mph beginning very late tonight and continuing through
Wednesday morning. The highest gusts will likely be during the
mid to late morning Wednesday as clear skies allow us to mix
down some of the stronger 850mb winds. This is supported by
model soundings/momentum transfer potential. Mean 850mb temps
look to climb into the 6-8C range (was -1C this morning) which
will allow us to warm into the middle to upper 50s under clear
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Shortwave energy and
that next batch of cold air will be quickly moving southeast on
Wednesday with a cold front moving into our area as early as
late Wednesday evening. This will be a dry front with strong
cold air advection. 850mb temps will drop well below freezing
with Thursday morning temps in the teens to lower 20s. Gusty
north winds of 15-25 mph, combined with the cold air temps will
create windchill values in the single digits Thursday morning.

Even with sunshine, strong cold air advection looks to keep
highs in the middle to upper 20s north of Springfield with lower
to middle 30s elsewhere. Wind chills of 15-25F will likely last
through the day. Much like this morning, surface high pressure
(while perhaps not as strong) will move overhead by early
Thursday morning. This will allow for low temps to again drop
into the teens.

Friday through the weekend: Surface high will then slide southeast of the area
Friday with temps slowly warming back into the 40s. Ensembles
continues to suggest a gradual warmup this weekend as the low
level flow becomes increasingly southwesterly. Mean 850mb temps
from the ensembles continues to be in the 5-8C range which would
promote high temps reaching back to or above average. Latest
NBM temp spreads continue to decrease which increases confidence
that highs will reach the middle to upper 50s Saturday and
Sunday.

Ensemble variance continues to increase by late in the weekend
as there remains uncertainty with the progression of shortwave
energy across the southwest US. There does seem to be an
increasing amount of ensemble members that shows the upper level
energy moving northeast towards Oklahoma and Texas Sunday. This
seems to be in response to stronger energy that will move
through the western US. This stronger energy will likely be what
is needed to kick out the southwest US energy however it remains
uncertain when and where this occurs. Precip chances for Sunday
night and Monday have increased over 30%, especially east of
Springfield. However, additional changes are likely in the
Sunday/Monday timeframe as the overall system structure becomes
more clear. Beyond this system, AO teleconnections continue to
remain unclear with a high spread in variance. This leads to
low confidence on when the next round of cold air moves south
towards the central US.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period, but look for
strengthening wind fields. This will result in LLWS tonight into
Wednesday morning and gusty SW to W winds on Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Titus