Nixa, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

199
FXUS63 KSGF 171917
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
214 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions today through tonight with southerly wind
  gusts up to around 30-40 mph with localized gusts to 45 mph
  west of Springfield.

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Friday night through the
  weekend. Large hail and damaging winds are the most likely
  hazards.

- A Flood Watch is now in effect Friday night through the
  weekend. Between 2-4 inches of rainfall is likely across most
  areas this weekend due to multiple rounds of rainfall. This
  will cause an increase in creek and river levels. Flooding of
  low water crossings may occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows the beginnings of an extended period of
southwest flow aloft as upper level energy moves into the
Rockies. After a morning round of elevated thunderstorms, skies
have mostly cleared as a north/south oriented warm front was
oriented across the area. Temps have rebounded into the upper
70s and low level moisture was also increasing with a ribbon of
55-60 degree dewpoints now across the area. A higher area of
850mb temps (>18C) was located back across northeast Oklahoma.
Wind gusts are increasing as well with most gusts in the
25-35mph range out of the south.

This afternoon through tonight: Low level cumulus will move
through at times as moisture increases however dry conditions
are expected as warm air aloft inhibits any precip development.
Gusty south winds will continue as low pressure strengthens
across Kansas with a cold front stretching northeast into
Nebraska. The low level airmass will remain mixed tonight with
southerly winds keeping temps well above average (low to mid
60s).

Friday into Friday night: A cold front will slowly move
southeast during the day however given the parallel flow aloft
it will not be moving fast. Therefore given a warm start, capped
airmass and southerly winds, expect another warm day with highs
around 80. 850mb temps will be much higher than today (around
18-20C), therefore if skies are not as cloudy then temps could
climb further into the lower or middle 80s.

By Friday evening, the cold front will be sliding into our
southeast Kansas counties and a look at forecast soundings shows
inhibition weakening along the front after 6-7pm. This is likely
due to large scale lift increasing and allowing for development
along the front. A look at the latest HREF composite
reflectivity paintball plots shows a good consensus of an
increase in showers and storms after 00z, especially increasing
after 03z as the low level jet strengthens to the south and
forces lift over the front. Forecast MU CAPE around 1000j/kg and
50kts of 0-6km shear will allow for organized storms. The
orientation of the front and flow will tend to favor storms
along or just behind the front (elevated storms). This would
favor large hail and damaging winds as the main concerns. Some
CAMS do indeed show bowing segments which would favor damaging
winds. A few rounds of thunderstorms do look likely overnight
Friday night into early Saturday morning.

A moist airmass will be advecting into the area with this system
with PW Values in the 1.3-1.5in range which is around 200% of
normal. Therefore they will be efficient rainfall producers and
will pose a risk for flooding if storms move over the same
areas. We are just now beginning to get into the range of the
high res guidance and the latest HREF LPMM forecast shows a
ribbon of 1-3 inches of rainfall with this overnight round from
southeast Kansas into west central Missouri, mainly along and
just northwest of I-44 with amounts dropping off behind that.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Saturday through Sunday: A round of showers and thunderstorms
will likely be ongoing across southwest Missouri before the low
level jet briefly weakens during the day. Flash flooding will
continue to be a concern during the morning as storms move over
the same areas. The big question during the day will be with the
location of the surface front. If overnight thunderstorms have
strong enough cold pools then it could nudge the front a little
further south which would keep the instability lower across the
area during the day, leading to mainly a long period of light to
moderate rain across southern Missouri through the afternoon
and evening hours. However if the front can remain closer then
areas south of I-44 could see a risk for severe thunderstorms
during the evening along with heavier rainfall rates. Confidence
is low with the severe threat Saturday. It does look cloudy and
wet with temps ranging from the 50s north of I-44 to the 70s
southeast of I-44 however the front will ultimately decide where
this gradient sets up.

The low level jet looks to ramp back up Saturday night into
Sunday morning from Texas into Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
The apparent shortwave also looks to begin to pivot more
east/northeast and turn neutral to eventually negatively tilted
during the day Sunday. A round of showers and thunderstorms
will likely develop across Oklahoma and move into the area by
Sunday morning. Currently it looks like areas along the I-44
corridor and perhaps just north will experience this heavy batch
which again could lead to flooding. Depending on the evolution
of this batch, a final round of showers and storms will develop
east of Springfield as the low pressure begins to lift northeast
through Missouri. Any severe weather threat Sunday
afternoon/evening remains uncertain due to instability however
areas east of Highway 63 have the highest chances at this time.

A Flood Watch has been issued for Friday night through Sunday
evening due to the multiple rounds of rainfall. Latest NBM and
WPC guidance has trended slightly higher with rainfall totals
just west of Springfield due to the overlap in rounds of
rainfall. NBM probs of 3 inches or greater are around 60% west
of Springfield which leads to high confidence in the heaviest
amounts setting up somewhere either side of the I-44 corridor
from Tulsa to Joplin to perhaps Lake of the Ozarks. See
hydrology section below for potential impacts due to this
rainfall.

Monday through Wednesday: Ensembles suggest that a mostly zonal
upper level flow pattern will develop early next week which
will lead to disturbances moving close to the area, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall chances from the NBM remain in
the 30-40% range Tuesday and Wednesday and expect these chances
to increase as ensembles continue to come into better agreement
on the overall disturbance timing. Temps look to remain
seasonable with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period with passing mid clouds at times. Southerly winds
will increase this afternoon with gusts around 30kts likely.
These winds will linger overnight with a slight turn to the
southwest Friday. Low level wind shear is likely at the TAF
sites tonight through Friday morning. No additional rainfall is
expected until Friday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Rainfall this month helped boost 28-day streamflow averages
which now range from normal to above normal across most of the
CWA. Although the recent rainfall has helped to improve the
drought situation, the latest US Drought Monitor still shows
abnormally dry conditions extending across nearly half of the
CWA.

The WPC excessive rain outlook has a slight risk across the CWA
for Friday and a moderate risk for Saturday roughly extending
along the I-44 corridor. HEFS stream forecasts show rises at
nearly all river forecast points with at least a 25% chance of
reaching flood stage (minor stage) at locations along the
Spring, Jack`s Fork, Current, Osage, Little Osage, Marmaton, and
Big Piney rivers. The Little Osage, Marmaton, Big Piney, Jack`s Fork, and
Spring rivers have a 10%-20% chance of reaching Moderate flood
stage at some locations. Currently, official RFC forecasts don`t
include all of the QPF associated with this event and as such
caution should be used when viewing the official river forecasts
until we get closer to the event.

In addition to riverine flooding, with the heaviest rain bands
expected Friday night into Saturday morning, some minor flash
flooding may affect urban areas and low water crossings. For
those who may be visiting or camping near area waterways this
weekend, expect elevated streamflows and be prepared to move to
higher ground if necessary.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
HYDROLOGY...Grout