Nixa, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

998
FXUS63 KSGF 122000
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-50% rain chances today with cooler temperatures in the mid
  80s to low 90s. Slightly lower chances for rain Wednesday (15-30%)
  mainly in the eastern Ozarks.

- Temperatures increase back into the mid to upper 90s Friday
  and through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows a very weak but wavy pattern
across the CONUS, with intrusions of dry air within each of
these waves. RAP analysis portrays the strongest mid- and
upper-level trough traversing MN/WI, with a weaker extension of
the trough slowly moving through KS and west MO. At the surface,
there is a weak cold front draped across SE MO. Cooler
temperatures reside behind the front across our forecast area
with high temperatures only forecast to reach the middle to
upper 80s today.


20-50% rain chances today, slightly lower chances Wednesday:

Radar imagery shows bands of slow-moving showers and
thunderstorms along the weak cold frontal boundary just east of
our CWA, and another band ahead of the mid-level trough axis NW
of our CWA in east KS/west MO. These areas will be the main
focus for scattered showers and storms this afternoon. While the
main line of storms in the eastern Ozarks has slowly progressed
east of the Shannon/Oregon County lines, cumulus behind the
line are getting increasingly puffy, suggesting a continued
chance for development of showers and storms through the
afternoon and evening along and east of Highway 63.

The other band of showers and storms in east KS/west MO is
slowly moving into the area ahead of the leading edge of the
trough. These showers and storms will pose a risk for SE KS/west
MO late this afternoon and evening.

These storms have exhibited very slow storm motions. This
combined with well-established moisture through the atmospheric
column contributing to tall-skinny CAPE profiles at 1000-1500
J/kg will bring the potential for localized areas of nuisance
flooding. Otherwise, the main threats will be lightning and
brief periods of wind gusts up to 40-50 mph as the Ozarks Pulse
Thunderstorm Index shows a medium to high risk for initiation
and subsequent descending cores of pulse thunderstorms.

The main initiating boundaries and areas of mid-level lift will
translate to SE MO by Wednesday. This should keep any shower and
thunderstorm chances (15-30%) confined to our south-central
counties Wednesday afternoon and evening.


Relatively cooler temperatures in the middle to upper 80s:

Due to the trough axis traversing the area Wednesday, near
normal temperatures are expected again with highs in the middle
to upper 80s. Some locations along the MO/AR border may reach 90
F. Lows are forecast to be in the middle to upper 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Warming trend into the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 90s:

After the trough exits the area, global ensemble cluster
analysis is in agreement with a ridge building over the area. In
fact, the GFS and Euro both put the center of a 500 mb high
right over Missouri. This pattern will slowly increase
temperatures back to the middle to upper 90s by Friday and into
the weekend. The current NBM mean has Heat Index values across
the region at 100-105 F. Given that this is the mean, as we draw
closer to the weekend, there is a near equal chance that
guidance could increase to where a Heat Advisory may be needed,
or decrease to where temperatures just stay "very warm".

Thanks to the stronger ridge during this period, chances for
rain will be very low (<10%), but nonzero due to August ridge
airmasses generally still being favorable for stray pop-up
showers and thunderstorms.


Signal for cooling trend and return of rain chances next week:

Cluster analysis is in agreement that the ridge will retrograde
westward after the weekend, bringing in northwesterly flow
aloft. This should gradually cool temperatures early next week.
NBM spreads trend downward, but also stretch out during this
period with temperature spreads ranging from the mid-80s to
mid-90s.

The northwest flow aloft should also bring back higher chances
for rain as little wiggles in the jet stream allow for more
large-scale lift and forcing. Details of each of these wiggles,
however, are very uncertain and low confidence. Therefore, only
15-20% chances are present each day Monday through Wednesday,
but any one day could increase chances as we draw closer to the
designated time period.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Medium-high confidence in VFR conditions through the entire TAF
period. A 3-4 kft cu field will be present between 18-02Z.
During this time, winds will be NNW`ly at 3-8 kts, slowly
shifting to NE`ly between 02-14Z.

There is a low-end chance for a stray shower through the period
(<15% chance), especially near SGF and BBG. Confidence is low in
this as the main front is off to the east of the TAF sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price