Cape Girardeau, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

645
FXUS63 KPAH 141757
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1257 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well below normal temperatures will continue through Monday
  night, with readings moderating back to seasonable values by
  Wednesday.

- Small chances (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms are
  expected Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, followed by
  very breezy conditions Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Shower and storm chances will gradually spread from north to
  south while increasing Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
  morning, with the best chances (70-80%) Thursday afternoon
  into Thursday evening.

- Precipitation will end from northwest to southeast late
  Thursday night into Friday morning, followed by slightly
  cooler and less humid air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Northwest to north winds will give our region cooler temperatures
and decreasing humidity today, with these conditions persisting
through Monday night. Winds will shift back to the south
Tuesday, resulting in a warming trend and increasing humidity
through Wednesday, with these more seasonable conditions
continuing into Thursday. Wednesday will become very breezy as
the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold
front. South winds at 15-25mph with gusts to around 35mph are
expected Wednesday afternoon and evening.

A few showers and storms are possible Tuesday with a weakening
surface boundary moving into our region and washing out. Much
better chances will spread south across the PAH forecast area
(fa) with the lifting north of a warm front and the subsequent
approach of the aforementioned cold front Wednesday. 20-30%
chances will move into northern portions of the PAH fa Wednesday
afternoon, spreading south Wednesday evening and increasing to
40% south to 85% north by late Wednesday night. Chances will
peak at 70-90% Thursday through Thursday evening as the cold
front pushes through the area. Chances will end from northwest
to southeast late Thursday night through Friday morning.
Precipitation forecast totals Tuesday through Friday are
currently in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range, with localized higher
amounts possible. SPC includes northern portions of the PAH fa
in a Day 4 Severe 15% probability. Based on current timing of
the cold front, this would be primarily Wednesday night.

Chances of showers and storms return to the forecast late in the
weekend. The model blend produces 20-40% chance in the Saturday
night to Sunday time frame. Models solutions vary quite a bit
over the weekend, and confidence is not very high at this time,
so future adjustments are likely.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Any lingering MVFR cigs or isolated showers will dissipate by
21z. Low VFR cigs will become SCT, with VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period. Wind from the northwest at 7-12kts with
gusts of 17-23kts will gradually become light north to northwest
between 00z-03z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST