Cape Girardeau, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

533
FXUS63 KPAH 111807
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
107 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- River flooding continues to impact most of the area. Most
  river points will see crests in moderate to major categories.

- A Frost Advisory is in effect early Saturday morning for most
  of the region east of the Mississippi River.

- Generally quiet weather with seasonable temperatures is
  forecast through the next seven days, with a small chances of
  showers and thunderstorms Monday, and higher chances on
  Thursday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

An upper-level disturbance over the eastern CONUS will gradually
shift eastward away from the region overnight, with increasing
H5 heights and surface high pressure arriving in its wake. This
will bring clearing skies and light winds. NBM ensemble guidance
gives over an 80% chance of both overnight lows below 36F and
winds under 3 mph mainly east of the Mississippi River. Have
issued a Frost Advisory for this area (save for far west KY and
the far southern tip of IL) from 06-13z Saturday.

Rest of the forecast period looks rather benign, with a warming
trend in temperatures expected this weekend into Monday. A
moisture-starved cold front will pass through the region Monday
afternoon and evening, associated with surface low pressure
passing through the northern Great Lakes. This looks to initiate
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, but the
better chance of organized convection looks to remain east of
the region in south-central IN and central and northern KY.
Rainfall amounts should be very light, which is good news for
allowing river levels to continue falling. The NBM ensemble
gives only a 10-20% chance of locations in the region seeing
more than a tenth of an inch of rain by Tuesday morning.

Quiet and seasonably mild conditions will return Tuesday and
Wednesday as surface high pressure becomes centered across the
Mid-South. A turn to a more unsettled pattern is expected for
the second half of the week beginning Thursday. This will be
driven by another keep surface low pressure passing through the
northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front will initiate showers
and thunderstorms Thursday into next Friday, though confidence
on timing is low at this range. The progged slow progression of
the front may allow for more robust rainfall amounts, but still
below a level of concern that would result in new flooding
issues. The NBM ensemble gives a 40-60% of the region seeing
more than a quarter inch of rain during this period, but only a
10-30% of seeing more than half of inch of rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

As an upper-level disturbance moves east of region, widespread
MVFR decks will gradually lift to VFR late this afternoon or
early this evening. Clear skies are forecast thereafter. Winds
will be steady from the N to NE around 8-12 kts, becoming light
and variable or calm overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ075>078-
     080>091-094.
MO...None.
IN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ to 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/
     Saturday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KYZ007-
     010>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS