Cape Girardeau, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

846
FXUS63 KPAH 070546
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1146 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of thunderstorms will move through the region Saturday
  morning into the early afternoon. A few strong to severe
  storms are possible, with damaging wind gusts being the main
  threat.

- Another disturbance will bring widespread showers and
  thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.
  Heavy rain, flooding, and severe thunderstorms are all
  possible, but the details remain vague.

- Quiet but breezy weather returns late next week, with
  temperatures cooling closer to normal values.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

It is feeling more like early May rather than early March, as
temperatures this afternoon have soared well into the 70s (and
even the 80s in the KY Pennyrile and southwest IN). Dew point
temperatures have also climbed into the lower to middle 60s. The
driver of this warmth and humidity is surface low pressure that
is deepening across the central Great Plains this afternoon.
Thunderstorms will erupt along an associated dry line across
the southern/central Plains and grow upscale into an MCS that
will march through our region Saturday morning, mainly between
10 and 18z.

The MCS will likely be in a weakening mode with mostly elevated
convection due to a stable layer inversion and limited
instability. On the other hand, the latest CAM guidance
indicates about 250-750 J/kg of SBCAPE will be present, along
with about 100-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. Forecast hodographs
look to be elongated in the 0-3 km layer as well. However, lapse
rates will be weak to modest, around 5-6C/km in the mid-levels.
Still thinking that a few strong/severe level wind gusts will
the the main threat, and some trees in soggy soils could be
uprooted with sub-severe level gusts. Cannot completely rule out
a brief tornado, but confidence is this is very low. This line
of thunderstorms will exit the region by late morning or early
afternoon.

Additional development may fire near the Ohio River during the
mid-afternoon along the surface cold front, but whether this
activity would reach severe levels would be highly conditional
on how widespread and intense the morning convection is.
Rainfall amounts will range from 0.25-0.75" due to the
progressive nature of the line of storms, which will keep
flooding concerns low. Following the passage of the cold front,
quiet and cooler conditions are expected on Sunday as high
pressure becomes centered across the Ohio Valley.

Temperatures will again warm to near-record levels and humidity
values will jump as the surface high shifts east of the area.
Southerly return flow will again yield high temperatures in the
middle to upper 70s and dew point temperatures around 60 degrees
Monday. Another, potentially deeper/stronger, H5 trough and
surface low will organize over the southern Great Plains Monday
into Tuesday morning. The surface low will deepen quickly as it
moves NE from the southern/central Great Plains Tuesday morning into
the Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon.

The associated surface warm front will lift through the forecast
area Monday afternoon and evening, kicking off scattered shower
and thunderstorm development. Some of these storms could produce
heavy rain and flooding issues Monday night. A complex of
thunderstorms will develop Tuesday afternoon and evening in
central MO and northern AR and move through the area from west
to east through Wednesday morning. These storms will pose both a
risk of severe thunderstorms and more heavy rain and flooding
issues.

Right now, SPC has placed much of southeast MO into its Day 5
outlook for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Expecting
some severe probabilities to be extended eastward with later
updates. Additionally, the risk of training convection along the
warm front followed by one or more rounds of heavy rain from
thunderstorms will create the potential for flash flooding,
especially Tuesday afternoon and night. The latest NBM QPF has a
broad brush of 1.75-2.25" across the region during the Tuesday-
Wednesday period. These amounts will likely fluctuate given we
are still five days out. However, it is possible that corridors
of significantly high rainfall could occur as well, enhancing
the flash flood potential (and prolong/worsen ongoing main stem
river flooding).

For the latter half of next week, it appears a few days of
cooler, but seasonably mild weather is in store as the active
zonal H5 flow pattern shifts north of the area. Ensemble
guidance does show a pretty strong pressure gradient with high
pressure over the southeast CONUS, so gusty winds may be
something to watch Thursday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Not much change from previous thinking other than to delay the
arrival of the convection an hour or so at most locations. There
is a better signal for gusty winds with the leading line,
especially at KPAH. Also, there is a better signal for some
convection near the cold front, primarily at KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DRS