Belton, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

157
FXUS63 KEAX 202010
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
310 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms with periods of heavy rainfall expected. Strong winds
  and flooding are possible.

- Dangerous heat continues. Even though storms may keep
  temperatures lower; elevated dew points will make conditions
  feel much muggier after storms pass. Overnight lows still
  remain >= 75F.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Showers and storms continue to maneuver along a line from Macon
through Leavenworth. These storm are expected to continue for the
next several hours. The good news is that rainfall rates have been
fairly tame with radar estimated accumulations over the past 3 hours
of around 1 inch across portions of Atchison (KS), Leavenworth,
and Platte counties. Storms have been initiating along an
elevated warm front across central KS and progressing eastward
into the region. Storms have been gradually weakening as they
enter the region thanks in part to slight more stable lower
level across northern and NE MO from an MCS that passed through
earlier in the morning. Remnant boundaries from earlier
convection have also stabilized some of the environment and
residual boundaries from earlier have not progressed as quickly
as initially anticipated.

Radar imagery over the past few hours has shown the line of showers
and storms slowly sink further south. Mesoanalysis shows a more
favorable low level CAPE and shear environment; however,
vertical profiles show just enough of an inversion to keep
storms from fully rooting to the surface. If storms are able to
mix down and tap into the surface instability, chances for
heavier downpours increase. Probabilities for strong to severe
storms remains marginal at best.

The forecast remains consistent for a second round of storms during
the overnight hours initially starting across the US-36 corridor.
These storms once again bring chances for overnight heavy
rainfall keeping chances for river and areal flooding above 0
percent. Several uncertainties remain with this and subsequent
rounds of convection as overnight activity is highly dependent
on how this afternoon/evening`s activity pans out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

The weather can be fickle sometimes. Especially in a pattern like
this where we find ourselves on the periphery of a large high
pressure system across the SE CONUS. More progressive zonal flow to
the north introduces multiple disturbances from MCSs within the
interior of the flow to shortwaves along the edges. These systems
and perturbations interact with the hot, moist, unstable environment
currently over us bringing heat, humidity, and storms all of which
interact and produce two very different outcomes.

Pivoting becomes the theme as these weather disturbances manifest
themselves. An overnight MCS cruised through the area this morning
leaving a large pocket of slightly more stable air across northern
MO. This also left an outflow boundary which has washed out and has
slowed across the Ozark Plateau. The low level remnants of the
overnight MCS combined with upper level shortwaves fostering the
development of an MCV across NE KS. This MCV is currently working
its way to the area bringing chances for heavy rainfall and flooding
potential. An isolated storm with strong winds cannot be ruled out.

Surface observations and satellite imagery show the MCV following a
broadscale 925mb warm front across northern MO. More convection is
developing along a kinematic boundary stretching from Topeka through
Emporia to Wichita. To further complicate things, the outflow
boundary mentioned previously is expected to lift back northward
guided by the majority southerly surface flow. This southerly flow
has also pushed warmer and more moist air back northward receiving a
small boost from pockets of sunshine this morning. All of this looks
to converge across northern MO from the US-50/I-70 corridor north.
Heavy rainfall and flooding are the primary concerns as the air is
quite saturated and PWAT values exceed 2 inches. Storm motions
parallel to the warm frontal boundary open up opportunities for
training storms which we have already seen hints of across the US-36
corridor. Storm motions are expected to slow through the afternoon
and evening resulting in rain sitting over spots of long periods of
time further increasing flooding concerns. Isolated strong storms
are possible with potentially damaging winds gusts and torrential
rainfall. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, but overall
probabilities remain marginal. Of course, all of this could change
as upstream waves may encourage these systems to move a little
faster. Faster storm motions may reduce chances for higher
accumulations, but storm strength could be increased; everything is a
trade off.

The good news is that the storms will bring some relief from the
anticipated heat. Rainfall may cause high temperatures to
underperform; however, conditions in the post storm environment may
feel worse as the sun quickly reheats the air, evaporating water,
and making the air feel quite muggy and thick. Dangerous heat is
still expected, even though temperatures may not reach as high as
anticipated. Unobstructed southerly flow aided by the nocturnal LLJ
keep overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s bringing little relief
from the hot and muggy conditions.

This pattern is expected to persist for the next several days. It
would not be surprising to see relatively large swings in
temperatures and precipitation probabilities in the short term. An
atmosphere that is very warm, humid, and unstable is ripe for
convection if there is something to initiate it; which there is
plenty of. The pattern is expected to quell slightly midweek making
things a little less chaotic. However, that does mean higher
likelihoods and coverage for dangerous heat across the region. It is
important to remain weather aware and frequently check for forecast
updates. Please check in on friends, family, and neighbors who may
be susceptible to the heat and heat related illnesses.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger through the
remainder of the afternoon north of IXD. Guidance shows this
line gradually weakening before reinvigorating during the
overnight hours. This may bring a break in the rainfall after
sunset. CIGs remain VFR; however, RA/TSRA will lower VIS with
+RA possible. Winds remain generally from the south; however,
they will temporarily turn in the direction storms are moving as
they approach (mostly from the N or NW). Winds revert back
southerly after storms pass. Gusts return after sunrise
tomorrow. Guidance paints some chance at RA near sunrise;
however, too much uncertainty remains to include precip at this
time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.
     Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MOZ007-008-016-017-
     024-025.
KS...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for KSZ025-102.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Pesel
DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel