Petal, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

029
FXUS64 KJAN 201958 CCA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
246 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

This afternoon through Saturday night:

In terms of the heat, the forecast confidence continues to be
high in the details through mid week. Significant heat is now
showing up more prominently in the guidance as the subtropical
ridge strengthens over our region during what is climatologically
the hottest time of the year. The thermal ridge will support
anomalously warm low level temperatures (e.g., H850 T in the lower
20s deg C), and these will correspond with a greater chance for
us to observe 100 deg F high temperatures, but if it`s any
consolation, record highs are not being threatened. Between now
and Wednesday, each day is forecast to be a little hotter with
peak heat stress expected Wednesday. In terms of warnings/
advisories, a heat advisory has been issued for the entire area
for Monday with the exception of upper portions of the Delta
region where an extreme heat warning is in effect, and in the HWO
graphics, elevated/significant impacts are being message
accordingly.

Where the heat stress forecast gets less clear is later in the week
as westerlies over the northern CONUS get pulled clockwise around
the east side of the ridge. This would lead to a couple of changes,
including the increase in convective rainfall chances, especially
over southeast portions of the area where convective rainfall
coverage could be considerable, and with reducing heat stress by
disrupting the ridge some. Having said this, we would not count on
there being a big pattern change as it still looks to remain hot and
humid and expect some sort of heat related messaging to be required
through the end of the forecast.

Another thing to monitor for could be the potential for a few
strong/severe multicell storms as the easterly low/mid level flow
around the ridge will likely increase and become more cyclonic late
this week. Also, while there is a similar signal to last week for a
disturbance to potentially gain at least some hybrid tropical
characteristics over the northern gulf, TC development is not
currently expected, and the greatest impact we might see is locally
heavy rainfall developing as far north as the Highway 84 corrdor.
/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VFR conditions and a southerly wind will prevail through the TAF
period./KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  96  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      75  96  74  98 /   0  10  10  20
Vicksburg     76  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   77  99  77  99 /  10  10   0  20
Natchez       74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    76  96  75  98 /   0  10   0   0
Greenwood     77  96  75  98 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-
     034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ026>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

EC/KP/