Oxford, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

378
FXUS64 KMEG 191645
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1145 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1137 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

- Dangerous heat will continue today and tomorrow. Heat indices
  will range between the mid to upper 100s in the afternoons
  across eastern Arkansas, southeast Missouri, and portions of
  West Tennessee and north Mississippi.

- Triple digit heat indices will persist through the weekend,
  though scattered showers and thunderstorms will provide
  localized relief from the oppressive heat.

- The heat will intensify starting on Monday through at least
  midweek, with dangerous heat indices in excess of 110 expected
  over much of the Mid-South by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Weak surface boundary is currently moving through portions of the
Mid-South, with some scattered thunderstorms firing across NE MS
and along the TN River. This coverage will likely persist along
this boundary over similar areas into the afternoon hours, with
brief periods of heavy rainfall. Some strong winds (30 to 40 mph)
can`t be ruled out, but thunderstorms should remain below severe
criteria. Any convection through the afternoon will wane after
sunset. As for the heat this afternoon, will continue with our
heat headlines across portions of the Mid-South. Still looks like
these locations will climb above 105 by the afternoon, with some
locations approaching 110.

Similar conditions are expected again tomorrow, with some isolated
to scattered convection over a similar area. Temperatures will
warm a few more degrees, bringing highs into the mid 90s for some
locations. Have gone ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for
tomorrow covering a similar area as the heat products we have for
today. Decided against an Extreme Heat Warning for now across
western portions of our area, but depending on additional model
runs this evening it isn`t out of the question for tomorrow. I am
more confident in heat index values remaining in the 105-109
range, with NBM 50% keeping the area below the 110 mark.

Starting on Monday, through at least the middle of next week,
dangerous heat is expected across the Mid-South. As the upper-
level ridge builds over the region, high temperatures are expected
to tick up even further with dew point temps remaining in the mid
70s. This will bring daily high temperatures into the mid to
upper 90s across the Mid-South with afternoon heat index values
likely exceeding 105. By Tuesday and Wednesday, those heat index
values will likely exceed 110 for several locations. If there were
to be a day that we made a run at a high of 100 degrees, it would
likely be Tuesday or Wednesday. This can be difficult to achieve
in our area with dew points remaining in the mid 70s and any
afternoon convection, but current NBM probabilities do show around
a 60% chance of this occurring for Memphis both days. Think the
extreme heat will persist into Thursday, but there is some
question once we reach Friday. Most guidance suggests that we will
not break out of this oppressive pattern until the end of next
week, but that is even uncertain at this point. As for our
precipitation chances next week, won`t rule out some isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoons, but do think coverage will remain
over the far eastern portions of the area. This could bring some
brief respite to the heat, but I wouldn`t bank on it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Remnant Gulf moisture in addition to a small scale boundary has
given way to scattered showers near TUP. Do think there will be
some additional diurnal development for the other sites (except
maybe JBR) this afternoon, warranting PROB30s, but confidence is
certainly highest over north Mississippi. Otherwise very similar
surface conditions to what we`ve seen recently with light
southwest winds during the day going calm overnight. Not expecting
any low clouds to develop again overnight, so have kept VFR for
all sites barring any brief periods of TSRA.

CAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. Daily,
isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances will continue, with
minRH values remaining above 40%.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>005-007-
     008-010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-010-011.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ003-004-020-021-
     049>052-088-089.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CAD