Natchez, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

780
FXUS64 KJAN 122012
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
312 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Dangerous heat will be the primary weather hazard concern as we
go through the next seven days. There is enough forecast
confidence to go ahead with another heat advisory for Wednesday
along/west of the MS River. The hottest conditions are expected
this weekend when low level thermal anomalies should peak (e.g.,
H850 T > 21 deg C). By that time, most of the area will likely
need a heat advisory, and significant heat may become more of a
concern. Looking well down the road, there are some increasing
signals for a drier and less hot airmass per discussion below.

In the meantime, fo this afternoon, we`re seeing sub-severe
storms with locally heavy downpours focus on the outer periphery
of the weak central Gulf Coast disturbance where deep moisture is
interacting with a seasonably hot and humid airmass. Unimpressive
mid level lapse rates are helping to mitigate the severe
microburst risk, and expect storms to diminsh with sunset. For
the overnight, a few showers and storms could linger. /EC/

Wednesday through next Monday...The forecast remains on track,
with heat continuing to be the primary hazard. Our area remains
under the influence of a subtropical ridge, which will gradually
propagate westward along the southern CONUS. A surge of tropical
moisture on its western flank will increase rain chances Wednesday
(30-50%), with highest chances in the southeast (60-80%). Heat
indices will steadily increase, while rain chances steadily
decrease through late week as the subtropical ridge propagates and
builds over our area. Dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 70s
while temperatures climb to the mid to upper 90s. Confidence is
increasing on the need for expanded heat headlines to more
portions of the area, with perhaps a targeted extreme heat warning
in the west. Will maintain the HWO graphic depicting this for
late week.

The good news is this heat looks to be short lived thanks to a
tropical system in the western Atlantic. Thanking a tropical system?
Yes. We will not be impacted by this system and it will aid in
breaking the heat, especially in the east, and will usher drier air
into the area. There is still uncertainty regarding how far offshore
in the Atlantic the tropical system will be at this time, drier
conditions overall look to set up over the area towards the back end
of the period. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Multiple sites are showing a mixture of VFR and MVFR ceilings to
start off the TAF period. Ceilings will improve to VFR by 17Z with
VFR ceilings prevailing through much of the afternoon. Winds will be
from the south around 5-8 knots. Scattered SHRA and TSRA will
develop across mainly across east and southeast MS later this
afternoon. Categories could briefly drop down MVFR status this
afternoon/early evening. Rain chances will diminish later this
evening with a slight chance of scattered SHRA across east and
southeast MS. VFR ceilings will prevail across the forecast area
through 05Z. By 06Z multiple TAF sites will see ceilings drop down
to MVFR/IFR. Some sites could see ceilings drop down to LIFR
conditions due to a low stratus cloud deck. Low ceilings will
prevail across east/southeast MS through 14Z Wednesday. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  93  74  93 /  20  50  30  60
Meridian      73  90  73  92 /  40  60  30  70
Vicksburg     74  95  74  94 /  20  50  30  60
Hattiesburg   74  90  75  94 /  30  70  20  60
Natchez       74  93  73  93 /  20  60  20  60
Greenville    74  95  74  93 /  40  40  30  40
Greenwood     74  95  74  94 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041-047-053-059-060.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ018-019-
     025-034-035-040-041-047-053-059-060.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

EC/SAS/CR/