Madison, 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

563
FXUS64 KJAN 151120
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
620 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - There is an increasing threat for thunderstorms this weekend,
   and we are monitoring for the potential for severe weather.

 - Before then, dry weather with above normal temperatures will
   continue to be the general rule.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Today through Friday: The primary concern for this forecast will
be with the increased thunderstorm threat this weekend, but before
then, it will be more of the same through the remainder of the
week with an unusually strong subtropical ridge remaining fixed
over the Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley region. This will
continue a long stretch of above normal temperatures and dry
conditions, and it`s not out of the question for a few locations
to reach 90 deg F in the next few days. /EC/

Global models continue to indicate a window of opportunity from late
Saturday afternoon into at least the first half of Saturday night,
where some potential for severe storms will exist across mainly the
Delta region.  This specific area is currently where the better
conglomeration of wind shear, instability, and forcing is forecast
to reside as a cold front moves into the forecast area. Damaging
wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary concern with such storms.
There still remains some uncertainty in the exact evolution of
this system and timing, in addition to the track of some key
features, and whether or not there will be enough adequate level
of instability in place ahead of the front. Therefore, please
continue to monitor the latest forecast for the most up-to-date
information concerning this severe potential this weekend. For now
we continue to advertise a marginal/slight risk over
northwest/northern portions of the area.

Rainfall totals across the forecast area during this time look to
generally hover between 0.50-1.50 inches, with locally higher
amounts possible. The higher QPF amounts continue to exist across
the northern half of the CWA. This would be some much welcomed
and needed rainfall for the area, but it won`t put much of a dent
in the ongoing dry conditions.

The front will exit the region Sunday afternoon, and then a
return to quiet conditions is expected for the remainder of the
day and into the new work week. Conditions will be slightly cooler
across the forecast area as we begin the week, with drier air and
high pressure building into the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
/19/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Quiet conditions will persist through the TAF period with VFR
conditions prevailing. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  59  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      87  57  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     86  59  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   90  58  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       88  59  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    86  57  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     87  58  89  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/EC/CR