Madison, 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

553
FXUS64 KJAN 201742
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Have made some minor adjustments to the heat advisory for today
and expanded it eastward in south central MS. Overall, the hot
near term forecast is on track and no immediate changes are
planned in the heat messaging, but will reassess in the next few
hours with the new guidance coming in. In terms of convective
potential, there is a moisture plume on the periphery of the
subtropical high that continues to linger over northern portions
of the area and this will support isolated tstms with continued
heating and destabilization. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Today and tonight: Heat and high humidity leading to increased heat
stress will remain the main forecast concern. As high pressure
surface and aloft continue to strengthen over the region, the chance
for rain will become more limited and temperatures will top out a
degree or two warmer. Normal afternoon highs run in the lower 90s.
Temperatures are forecast to top out in the mid 90s at most
locations today. Wl maintain a moist tropical airmass with PWATs
greater than two inches. The high temperatures will combine with the
high humidity to result in heat index values between 105 and 110
especially over the western half of the CWA where a Heat Advisory
remains in effect until this evening. /22/

Monday through Saturday...The primary focus during this time will be
the heat that`ll grip the region for much of the period, as strong
high pressure aloft takes control of the weather across the forecast
area.  Nearly each day through the week, highs will steadily warm
from the middle 90s to the upper 90s, with some locations
potentially reaching the century mark come mid-week.  No change in
the very humid airmass across the region is expected, as dew points
each afternoon struggle to mix out of the middle 70s at best. This
will yield afternoon heat index values climbing to and above 106F
each day across much of the area, with little relief from the heat &
oppressive humidity expected at night.

It`s likely each day during the time period that a "Heat Advisory"
will be in effect for much of, if not all of, the forecast area.
It`s also possible that some portions of the area could see
significant heat stress come mid-week, with heat indices potentially
climbing above 110F.  As a result, an "Excessive Heat Warning" could
be hoisted for portions of the area as well during the week.

Rain chances will remain diurnally driven, but will overall lessen
across the forecast area through Wednesday.  Eventually these will
become confined to mainly eastern and southeastern portions of the
area, on the outer periphery of the aforementioned high. Otherwise,
only isolated showers and storms will be possible elsewhere.
Currently, rain chances look to rebound Thursday through Saturday as
a weak disturbance embedded in easterly flow moves along the central
gulf coast.  If this scenario pans out, it could bring some needed
relief from the oppressive heat that`ll grip the forecast area
through much of the period. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VFR conditions and a southerly wind will prevail through the TAF
period./KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  96  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      75  96  74  98 /   0  10  10  20
Vicksburg     76  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   77  99  77  99 /  10  10   0  20
Natchez       74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    76  96  75  98 /   0  10   0   0
Greenwood     77  96  75  98 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-
     034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

EC/19/KP/22