Hattiesburg, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

219
FXUS64 KJAN 160927
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
427 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 426 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Today and Tonight: After a rather chilly start this morning; well
below normal, temperatures will rebound rapidly and begin a warming
trend that will continue through the end of the week. Early morning
surface analysis had a 1022mb high centered over our western zones.
This surface high will continue shifting to the east through tonight
and result in a light return flow this afternoon. Tonight ridging
aloft will move over our CWA from the west. The pressure gradient
between the surface high shifting east of Mississippi and a <1000mb
low over the central Plains will help keep a southerly wind up and
help hold temperatures up closer to normal. /22/

Thursday through early next week...

The remainder of the week is quiet with very warm temperatures into
the mid to upper 80s. We could knock on the door of 90 some spots
Friday with the peak of an 850mb thermal ridge. a tight pressure
gradient 7 to 8mb will set up over the area Friday and will lead to
gustier winds, especially in the afternoon with deep boundary layer
mixing. A wind graphic may eventually be needed for Friday.

Moisture will begin to recover later this week with southerly
trajectories becoming established. Our area will remain under the
western periphery of the surface high/upper ridge into the weekend
in advance of a stalled frontal boundary to our northwest. A stout
shortwave will eject across the southern plains and will force this
front across our area Sunday into Monday, forcing the high pressure
to break down. In response, chances for showers and storms will
steadily increase across the area, some of which could be strong.
There is a slight risk in the HWO to capture this possibility, but
the threat looks conditional with some limiting factors working
against a greater severe threat. High heights result in weak lapse
rates and height falls are delayed and/or weak. By the time the
front arrives and the high actually breaks down, upper forcing is
ejecting out of the area.

Next weeks looks to host a whole range of scenarios. While the
GFS pushes the front all the way to the coast, the Euro stalls it
just north of our area. These differences are responsible for the
very different depictions of our weather for next week. GFS pushes
the front through, introducing an airmass change with building
ridging in its wake, while the Euro keeps rain chances with the
stalled boundary. Ensemble data is also variable, but generally
keeps the ridge weak enough to keep some rain chances for next week.
I will say, it does seem probable that the frontal boundary stalls
as the upper forcing is lifting out. What plays out may very well be
something in between. All this said, low pops are maintained into
next week. I`m sure refinements will be made to future forecasts as
data comes into clearer focus./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

GLH was reporting IFR vsby due to HZ at 530Z. This reduced vsby
may continue until after 12Z before improving. Otherwise, VFR
conditions wl prevail areawide through the end of the TAF period.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  54  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      78  50  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     78  55  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   79  51  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       78  56  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    75  55  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     76  56  82  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/SAS20/22