Greenville, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

927
FXUS64 KJAN 070547 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1147 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - There is a slight to marginal risk for severe weather on
    Saturday with wind and hail being the primary threats.

  - The most widespread and significant rainfall event since
    January is expected for the entire area.

  - There is potential for storms during the middle of next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms currently moving north
through the ArkLaMiss Delta region are the last remnants of spotty
afternoon convection we observed. The focus of the forecast
remains on expected storms developing along and ahead of a cold
front to our northwest overnight and into tomorrow. Short-term
forecast elements and POPs were updated through tomorrow night.
Hi-res models indicate most storm activity will fill in along a
line and push into our northwestern zones around Noon tomorrow.
Storms will build south through unstable air mass and mostly be
out of the area by around midnight tomorrow night. Rain could
linger in its wake, and additional showers or thunderstorms could
develop in the lingering frontal zone Sunday. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The southeast ridge will be the predominant feature that will
influence our weather over the next week with continued southerly
flow supporting above normal temperatures and moist conditions. This
will precondition the thermal environment ahead of a trailing cold
front progged to push through Saturday. Activity initiates along
this boundary in the vicinity of central Arkansas and grows upscale
as it pushes south into the moist unstable air over our area. Given
the weak forcing, this is more similar to a warm season set up,
rather than what is typical of early spring. So, the line should be
primarily forced by the cold pool. Now that we are solidly in the
CAM window however, there is increasing confidence for a prefrontal
discrete mode amid a favorable hail environment. The deep shear is
on the weaker side, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong -10C -
-30C CAPE raise concerns for greater hail threat. Shear only needs
 to be sufficient in this thermal environment, which likely looks
 to be the case. Considering this, have opted to increase
 emphasis on messaging hail threat. High cloud bases and weak low
 level shear look to limit tornado threat. However, if a low level
 shear vector lines up just right with sufficient low level
 moisture, as can sometimes happen in our area, wouldn`t rule out
 a tornado either, particular in any supercells that can become
 established. Considering the limitations of the low level
 environment, would expect a primarily wind/hail threat. A
 slight/marginal risk is being maintained and has been expanded to
 capture the prefrontal discrete mode.

Now that we are more firmly in the near term CAM window with more
guidance agreement, there is some concern for a localized heavy
rainfall threat to materialize, especially where stronger low level
moist transport vectors intersect the convective boundary over
northwest portions of the area Saturday. It seems to be this area
where cell motion/propagation vectors will potentially have the most
balance for a slower convective system speed, resulting in a few
hours of heavy rainfall rates. Even with the recent dry weather,
these rates may be sufficient for at least minor low-land flooding.
This of course assumes that a convective system is maintained, which
as of now looks very likely. Later in the day, the cold pool will
likely overwhelm the system motion as the weak shortwave trough
shears eastward leaving behind diminished lift. With all of this in
mind, will continue to message limited flood risk in our northwest
to align with WPC messaging and recent HREF guidance.

Not much airmass change is expected in the wake of the front as a
cut off upper low over Baja reinforces ridging over our area once
again early next week. Southerly flow, and therefore moisture, is
maintained. The aforementioned upper low becomes the focus of our
next weather maker around middle of next week. As of this morning,
guidance has shown a less phased, more southern solution for this
feature, and thus a more suppressed convective environment. This
introduces uncertainty regarding the magnitude of severe weather.
Despite SPC`s introduction of a slight risk for this time frame,
will refrain from introducing a local graphic at this time. Expect
future updates regarding this potential event.
/SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR/MVFR conditions as low stratus migrates northward from the Gulf.
Southerly winds between 10-15 kts are expected overnight. Around 18Z
Saturday, flight conditions expected to further deteriorate as
TSRA/SHRA storms moves into the region ahead of a frontal boundary.
/SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       88  68  84  63 /  20  20  90  80
Meridian      78  64  83  62 /  50  10  70  80
Vicksburg     88  67  84  62 /  20  30  90  80
Hattiesburg   82  68  84  66 /  50  10  70  70
Natchez       87  69  85  64 /  20  30  90  80
Greenville    83  67  78  61 /  10  40  90  80
Greenwood     88  67  81  62 /  20  40  90  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS20/SW