Columbus, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

611
FXUS64 KJAN 121736
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Today and Tonight...Under south to southwest flow aloft and south to
southeast flow at the surface, deep moisture continues to subtly
pool across the forecast area through the period.  This, in addition
to a weak disturbance meandering about the central gulf coast, will
result in increasing chances of diurnally driven afternoon and
evening showers and storms across the forecast area.

In addition to these increasing chances of convection, mainly across
east and southeast Mississippi, humidity levels will also be higher
overall today compared to previous days.  This is especially the
case across western portions of the area, where afternoon heat index
values will be at to above 105F for a few hours and where lesser
chances for afternoon convection exist.  As a result, I`ve hoisted
another "Heat Advisory" much of the western half of the CWA
from 11 AM until 7 PM.

While the bulk of convection will dissipate during the evening
hours, an isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled out during the
overnight hours into early Wednesday morning.  With some lingering
cloud cover through the night, lows will only drop into the low and
middle 70s. /19/

Wednesday through next Monday...The forecast remains on track,
with heat continuing to be the primary hazard. Our area remains
under the influence of a subtropical ridge, which will gradually
propagate westward along the southern CONUS. A surge of tropical
moisture on its western flank will increase rain chances Wednesday
(30-50%), with highest chances in the southeast (60-80%). Heat
indices will steadily increase, while rain chances steadily
decrease through late week as the subtropical ridge propagates and
builds over our area. Dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 70s
while temperatures climb to the mid to upper 90s. Confidence is
increasing on the need for expanded heat headlines to more
portions of the area, with perhaps a targeted extreme heat warning
in the west. Will maintain the HWO graphic depicting this for
late week.

The good news is this heat looks to be short lived thanks to a
tropical system in the western Atlantic. Thanking a tropical system?
Yes. We will not be impacted by this system and it will aid in
breaking the heat, especially in the east, and will usher drier air
into the area. There is still uncertainty regarding how far offshore
in the Atlantic the tropical system will be at this time, drier
conditions overall look to set up over the area towards the back end
of the period. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Multiple sites are showing a mixture of VFR and MVFR ceilings to
start off the TAF period. Ceilings will improve to VFR by 17Z with
VFR ceilings prevailing through much of the afternoon. Winds will be
from the south around 5-8 knots. Scattered SHRA and TSRA will
develop across mainly across east and southeast MS later this
afternoon. Categories could briefly drop down MVFR status this
afternoon/early evening. Rain chances will diminish later this
evening with a slight chance of scattered SHRA across east and
southeast MS. VFR ceilings will prevail across the forecast area
through 05Z. By 06Z multiple TAF sites will see ceilings drop down
to MVFR/IFR. Some sites could see ceilings drop down to LIFR
conditions due to a low stratus cloud deck. Low ceilings will
prevail across east/southeast MS through 14Z Wednesday. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  93  74  93 /  20  50  30  60
Meridian      73  90  73  92 /  30  60  30  70
Vicksburg     74  95  74  94 /  10  50  30  60
Hattiesburg   74  90  75  94 /  40  70  20  60
Natchez       74  93  73  93 /  20  60  20  60
Greenville    74  95  74  93 /  10  40  30  40
Greenwood     74  95  74  94 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041-047-053-059-060.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

19/19/CR