Clarksdale, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

505
FXUS64 KMEG 050439
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1139 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for eastern Arkansas, the Missouri
  Bootheel, northwest Mississippi, and portions of West Tennessee
  through Sunday at 8 PM CDT.

- Hot and humid conditions will remain through much of next week,
  though heat indices may linger closer to 100F as our heat dome
  continues to push east.

- Daily thunderstorm chances will remain each day across the
  Mid-South, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.
  The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds and heavy
  downpours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

After an afternoon of strong thunderstorms, NQA`s scope now seems
peaceful in comparison to just 6 hours ago with only a handful of
shallow thunderstorms across West Tennessee. A weakening trend in
regards to convection will continue through tonight as an
overnight capping inversion strengthens. Some additional storms
could advect their way into northern West Tennessee, but the
passage of outflow from storms north of the region this afternoon
will limit the overall threat for severe winds and flooding.
Given the coverage and amount of rain, some fog could develop
near sunrise, but clouds and leftover winds from outflow will
keep any fog potential limited as well.

After sunrise Sunday, a humid air mass will remain in place
across the Mid-South with temperatures once again soaring into
the 90s by early afternoon. Once again, heat indices will top out
above 100 F across much of the region. However, the upper ridge
will have begun to erode in lieu of weak troughing building in
with today`s convection. Highs will therefore be unable to rise
enough to bring some portions of the region above 105 F,
particularly across portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee
River and northeastern Mississippi. Elsewhere, guidance still has
enough confidence to warrant the extension of the Heat Advisory
through 8 PM CDT Sunday. There is some potential for outflow to
modify portions of the Heat Advisory and bring maximum heat index
values below 105 F, but confidence in this solution is too low to
make any changes to the current Heat Advisory.

With the heat and humidity, instability will return to the region
with 2000 - 2500 J/kg MLCAPE through Sunday afternoon. Remnant
outflow boundaries are likely to remain across the region through
the morning and afternoon and will act as triggers for afternoon
thunderstorm development. RAP/HRRR guidance suggests that low and
mid level lapse rates will be slightly lower than today, leading
to lower DCAPE (750 - 1000 J/kg). Regardless, afternoon
convection will be capable of damaging wind gusts from
microbursts and very heavy downpours in the presence of 2.00"
PWATs. Convection will lessen in intensity and coverage near
sunset.

The upper ridge responsible for our heat wave will become almost
nonexistent by Monday. As such, highs begin to cool into the low
90s, but heat indices will still reach into the triple digits.
Some portions of the Mississippi River Delta may still see
maximum heat index values above 105 F, but guidance has trended
cooler in conjunction with the threat of more afternoon showers
and storms. Therefore, have opted to not extend the Heat Advisory
into Monday within this package. That being said, heat indices
will continue to be oppressive in the triple digits through much
of next week.

Ensembles paint a pattern shift by the end of next week with an
amplifying ridge across the western CONUS with troughing over the
Mississippi River Valley and areas east. This troughing will
bring precipitation chances back to the region after a relative
lull from Tuesday through Thursday. However, there is still
enough spread amongst guidance regarding the evolution of this
troughing to limit confidence in exact hazards. There is still
general agreement that the troughing will begin to move east,
increasing upper heights into next weekend with heat index values
beginning to rise above 100 F by Friday and continuing to rise
through the weekend to end the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Mainly rain-free conditions are expected overnight with a
potential for patchy fog to develop at MKL and TUP towards
sunrise. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on
Sunday, especially during peak heating warranting PROB30 groups
at all sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low across the Mid-South through at
least early next week as minimum relative humidity values remain
at or above 40 percent. 20ft wind speeds will remain generally
light. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
remain in the forecast each day.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001-007-008-010>012-
     020.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>003-019-020-
     048>051-088-089.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC