St. Cloud, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

105
FXUS63 KMPX 111913
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
213 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming up this weekend, with highs in the 60s and 70s.

- Weather system to bring scattered rain and thunderstorm
  chances Sunday, followed by lingering shower chances Monday.

- Cooler early next week. Up and down temperatures through the
  extended period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Stubborn morning stratus is finally eroding across southeastern
Minnesota, with widespread diurnal Cu developing in its wake.
Temperatures have been slower to warm across SE Minnesota due to
the cloud cover. Skies will clear this evening and winds will
increase out of the south. The winds should limit another round
of dense fog tonight.

500mb analysis depicts a broad ridge over the western
CONUS/High Plains and troughing over eastern CONUS/Deep South.
The ridge axis will translate east this weekend, opening the
door for more pronounced warm advection out of the Plains into
the Upper Midwest. This process will yield a mild Saturday, with
highs in the 60s (eastern MN/western WI) to the low to mid 70s
(western MN). Southerly wind gusts between 20-30 mph will assist
in pushing temperatures to these values, though may be too
strong to call it "perfect" outdoor weather, especially across
southern MN. Warm advection continues into Sunday, supporting
another day of mild temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

A shortwave trough over the northwest CONUS will spawn broad
surface low pressure over the central CONUS Saturday, followed
by expected maturation into a low pressure system across the
Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday. This will bring chances for
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to close the weekend.
Guidance has trended drier in the Saturday night timeframe,
likely due to dry air captured within the profile. Warm
advection driven showers and a few storms look a more likely
towards daybreak Sunday, as convection develops on the nose of
the low-level jet. SPC has included the region in a general
thunder mention, due to the forecast of a few hundred J/kg of
CAPE and steep lapse rates aloft. Latest NBM continues to look
quite reasonable, with 40-50% PoPs across eastern Minnesota and
western WI, and lower PoPs (20-30% or so)across western MN. For
those with outdoor aspirations on Sunday, do not let the rainy
icon fool you -- we do expect plenty of dry hours with only a
few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of QPF where the
showers/storms develop early in the day. Confidence is lower in
additional convective development ahead of a front Sunday
afternoon. The best chances appear to be across western WI.

The passage of the aforementioned weather system will bring cooler
air into the region to open the work week. Monday will be windy,
with gusts between 30-40 mph. The strong northwesterly flow will
advect in a much cooler airmass that will yield highs in the
low 50s Monday afternoon. Scattered rain showers are possible
throughout the day, though again rainfall amounts are expected
to be light. Winds are forecast to relax a bit Tuesday, though
little airmass change will support highs in the 50s yet again.
The wavy, unsettled upper-level pattern aims to support a quick
warm up into the 60s (and possibly 70s) on Wednesday as a
thermal ridge builds into the Upper Midwest. However, the
passage of a cold front and return to northwesterly flow will
drop temperatures back into the 50s to close the week. NBM
illustrates 40-50 PoPs ahead of the frontal passage. Looking
further into the extended, deterministic and ensemble solutions
show another possible round of wet weather next weekend. The
usual timing differences are present and overall predictability
is low, however the pattern appears to remain active to open the
second half of April.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

MVFR ceilings should continue to lift this afternoon, resulting
in VFR conditions this evening and overnight. Southerly winds
will develop from west to east, which should limit the fog
development again overnight, but did include a mention of 6sm at
KEAU. Otherwise expect breezy conditions on Saturday with some
high/mid level clouds.

KMSP...
A few MVFR stratus at the start, but then VFR conditions settle
in later this afternoon and last throughout the TAF period.
Southerly winds will develop Saturday morning, with gusts of 20
to 25 kts during the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind S 10-15kts becoming W/NW
late.
MON...VFR/MVFR cigs. Slight chc -RA. Wind NW 15-25G30-35kts.
TUE...VFR. Winds NW at 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...JRB