Shakopee, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

069
FXUS63 KMPX 121710
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1210 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke is moving out this morning, but another short round
  will arrive late tonight and Wednesday.

- The pattern will become more active late week into early next
  week. A stalled front will support multiple rounds of showers
  and thunderstorms, capable of heavy rainfall totals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Showers and storms just west of the metro into southwestern MN
continue to decay early this morning as they outrun any
lingering instability farther to the west. A cold front from
northeast to west central MN will continue to the southeast this
morning. Some lingering smoke ahead of the front has reduced
visibilities to 4 to 6 miles, and in areas with low Td
depressions, some fog is mixing in as well. The smoke will exit
to the east with the cold front this morning, leading to better
air quality today. Mild and drier air will push into the region
today, accompanied by high pressure. Dew points this afternoon
will only be in the 50s to low 60s.

A secondary cold front will drop south into northern MN
tonight and stall across central MN and central WI Wednesday.
Another band of smoke will accompany the front. While the band
will be fairly narrow, the HRRR and RAP near surface smoke
products show a greater concentration than Monday`s round.
Visibilities could be reduced to 3 or 4 miles with it before the
front lifts back north as a warm front Wednesday night.

A short wave trough will send a disturbance east across the
northern Plains to the Upper Midwest Wednesday night and
Thursday morning. A 40-50 kt LLJ will develop across the Plains
Wednesday evening and foster a cluster of thunderstorms over SD
that will progress east. By late evening the cluster will begin
reaching western MN, but despite the strong LLJ, limited
instability and poor mid level lapse rates should allow it to
weaken. PoPs remain around 40 percent through Thursday morning.
Pwats do increase to as high as 1.75 inches, and with the LLJ
persisting through Thursday, there could still be pockets of
locally heavy rain.

Another cold front will drop south and stall over the Upper
Midwest Thursday night. Several disturbances rippling along it
and on the northern periphery of a building ridge to the south
will bring several chances for thunderstorms through early next
week. A persistent LLJ, potentially very high pwats in excess of
2 inches, a reservoir of steep mid level lapse rates, and MBE
velocities less than 5 kts with the LLJ and cloud bearing winds
of similar direction and magnitude are all favorable for rounds
of heavy rainfall. However, despite the LLJ, relatively dry air
at 850 mb will limit the moisture flux and the EML could provide
strong capping at times. There is potential for many rounds of
thunderstorms with some stationary, training, or backbuilding
potential that could lead to an elevated flood risk. PoPs remain
in the chance category for now. Total QPF through early next
week vary for each ensemble system with the GFS on the lighter
side and the ECMWF/CMC on the heavier side. Some members of the
latter camp are greater than 4 inches, including the
deterministic 00Z ECMWF with a very large area exceeding 3
inches across the southern half of MN and northern and central
WI, and greater than 4 inches centered along the I-94 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

A cold front has moved east of all terminals to the west of EAU
and should be actively moving through EAU to open the 18z TAF
period. Have observed notable improvements to the cigs/vis
following the frontal passage. Relatively quiet forecast period,
with WNW winds around ~10kts and the occasional gust upwards of
20 kts possible. Diurnal Cu ~3k feet will dissipate as mixing
ceases this evening. Clear and calm night ahead will support the
development of ground fog. Included TEMPOs at STC/MKT/EAU where
confidence in MVFR vis reductions is the greatest.

KMSP...No additional concerns at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Strus