Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

343
FXUS63 KARX 070534
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1134 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential (25-50%) for freezing drizzle Saturday morning along
  and northwest of a Mason City IA to Rochester to Medford arc.

- Warmer temperatures return for Sunday and Monday with
  daytime highs from the 50s into low 60s.

- Precipitation potential (30-45%)returns Tuesday night into
  Wednesday night. Some snow may occur with this precip, but
  impactful amounts appear doubtful (10% chance for 3"+).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Freezing rain/drizzle possible Saturday morning

Large positively upper trough is seen over the northern and central
Plains on 03z WV satellite with a strong southwesterly upper jet
over eastern NE toward western Lake Superior. At the surface,
associated cold front is starting to push through our western zones
with northwesterly winds seen at Dodge Center and Austin. With an
axis of robust 850/925mb frontogenesis just behind the surface front
and ascent via ageostrophic response to the right entrance region of
the upper jet, some convection is occurring atop the 850mb warm nose
behind the front over northwest IA and south central MN leading to
freezing rain in Estherville IA where surface temps are 31F. The
good news is that in our CWA, HRRR/RAP suggest surface temps will
not fall as quickly compared to farther west so should this batch of
post-frontal convection reach our area, rain would result. However,
progged profiles at RST do eventually drop below freezing at
Rochester while the warm nose erodes at the same time. With this
near surface layer remaining saturated while the DGZ remains dry
through around 10am, any low level ascent could lead to freezing
drizzle. Have therefore moved the forecast tomorrow morning - where
precip is possible (15-40%) along and northwest of a Mason City IA
to Rochester to Medford ac - toward rain transitioning to freezing
drizzle, retaining a slight chance (15%) for snow in case the DGZ
saturates.

Warm temperatures return Sunday and Monday

After a cool post frontal Saturday with slowly clearing skies,
partly to mostly sunny conditiosn return Sunday and Monday.
Additionally, a pair of northern stream disturbances will lead to
lightly breezy southwesterly surface winds during both days. This
should lead to warmer temperatures with highs in the 50s and 60s.
07.01z NBM interquartile ranges are 4-5 degrees F so confidence is
good this warm up will occur.

Next chance for precip Tuesday into Wednesday

Slow moving upper trough looks to slide over the northern Plains and
upper Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday with this feature amplifying
roughly overhead Wednesday into Thursday. Given favored positive
tilt to this trough as it approaches, best forcing for ascent and
moisture look to be displaced to our southeast. However, as the main
body of the upper trough passes overhead, could (30-45%) get some
light precip and, given progged 850/700mb temps below 0C, snow would
be possible as well. Amounts at this do not look to favor impacts,
with only a 10-15% chance to reach 3" of accumulation per 07.01z NBM
and 06.12z LREF, in line with the overall pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

IFR/LIFR conditions continue on the whole over the next 12 hours
with improvement to MVFR Saturday morning before skies scatter
out to VFR through the day. Sporadic TS occurring around the
area at issuance time but probability of occurrence at RST/LSE
is less than 30% so did not include it. Ongoing showers are
paradoxically leading to VFR conditions as ongoing fog and low
clouds are disrupted via turbulence so have include prevailing
LIFR/IFR conditions with VFR TEMPO groups. Moving ahead to
Saturday morning, still looking at a 30% chance for FZDZ at RST
and may need to move toward a TEMPO or even prevailing mention
via an amendment overnight. Beyond the end of this TAF period,
VFR conditions should prevail Sunday and Monday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Ferguson