Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

833
FXUS63 KARX 221108
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
508 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- At or above normal temperatures are favored into early next
  week with highs mainly in the 40s Sunday through Wednesday.

- A dry weekend is expected, but an unsettled weather pattern
  next week will bring periodic chances for rain or snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Turning warmer through at least Wednesday:

08z WV satellite reveals northwesterly flow aloft over the CWA with
a few disturbances within this upstream to the Canadian Rockies. A
jet streak is beginning to advance eastward over the Pacific
Northwest with broad upper ridging to the south of this over much of
the west coast. At the surface, high pressure is present in the
TN/OH valley, allowing for southwesterly winds to set up across the
CWA.

For the weekend, expect good conditions for a warming trend as
heights aloft subtly build. Additionally, with the surface high to
the southeast remaining in place today and, for Sunday, cyclogenesis
associated with the left exit region of the Pacific NW jet streak
occurs in the Canadian Prairies to our northwest, winds should
continue to be southwesterly in our forecast area, advecting in
warmer air from underneath the building ridge to our west.
Additionally, while upper waves Saturday and Sunday morning should
reduce insolation periodically, the afternoon hours look to be
mostly clear as moisture through the column remains low. Thus,
expect highs to reach close to freezing this afternoon and
potentially reach 40 (10-80% chance, favoring areas along the
Mississippi River) Sunday afternoon, with overall warming limited by
the effects of snow cover.

Monday through Wednesday, with flow aloft trending toward a quasi-
zonal pattern, warming trend should stabilize with highs returning
to the 40s and possibly 50s (20-40%) each afternoon. That said,
uncertainty does begin to tick up for Wednesday, when interquartile
temperature ranges reach 8-10 degrees F as heights aloft fall due to
the influence of a longwave positively tilted trough.

For the latter half of the week, temperatures should tend to fall a
bit as ridge aloft to the west weakens and flow over the CWA becomes
northwesterly once again. The good news is that, while potential for
a stray high in the 50s goes down, probability is good (30-95%,
lowest in Clark/Taylor and highest in NE IA) that highs will remain
in the 40s.

Periodic chances for precip:

Overall flow pattern described above will allow for a series of
upper disturbances to translate downstream over the region across
the next week.

Upper waves this morning and Sunday morning, while favored to
generate a good amount of mid/upper level sky cover, should (95%)
largely fail to produce precip or even flurries for that matter as
conditions below the mid-levels remain dry.

Monday, good agreement across GFS/CMC/EC that an initial wave in the
morning will likely remain to our northeast, bringing low (15%)
precip potential to Clark/Taylor Counties. A second wave Monday
evening may (20-30%) bring precip to the CWA with this largely
dependent on if dynamics will be strong enough to overcome lack of
moisture in the mid and lower levels. Cluster analysis on members
across the 21.12z and 22.00z LREF runs suggest that around 40% of
members have a strong enough wave to manage to get at least 0.01",
so have raised NBM PoPs slightly using other consensus blends. In
concordance with the warming trend described above, favored precip
type would be rain with this round.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, next round of potential precip arrives
as a longwave trough slides over the central CONUS. Latest trend
across much of guidance has been toward a highly positively titled
trough, which tends to mute enthusiasm for precip coverage, instead
favoring a relatively narrow axis of precip wherever additional
forcing for ascent, usually via fgen, is present. Across the suite
of guidance, little agreement is seen on placement of any axes of
fgen during this period. NBM PoPs largely reflect the trend toward
lower coverage, with values decreasing compared to previous values,
dropping into the 20s and 30s. Until confidence increases in
placement of precip, will continue to use NBM values during this
period. As for precip type, progged lack of a notable warm nose
continues to point toward mainly a rain event with some chance for
snow in the northern CWA.

Thursday and Friday, guidance suggests at least another couple shots
at precip across the Great Lakes with our neck of the woods at the
western edge of the best moisture. Thus, while mentions for precip
are in the forecast, largely as snow as temperatures trend colder,
would need deeper moisture to trend westward to get anything truly
impactful during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. A regionalized deck
of stratus has formed across portions of west-central Wisconsin
generally in the 6000-9000 ft range over the last 3 hours.
Otherwise, a large swath of high clouds will continue to
overspread the area in the coming hours from the northwest. As
these high clouds move overhead, this should limit the extent of
the mid level clouds and they should mix out through the
morning. Winds are expected to stay in a general southwesterly
direction between 6-12 kts with the higher speeds across
southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa. There is a chance
the KRST terminal could see some sub-20 kt gusts today but did
not have enough confidence to include with this package. Winds
are expected to diminish again tonight to less than 10 kts.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Barendse