Ramsey, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

768
FXUS63 KMPX 290520
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1220 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers into this evening, with additional showers
  tomorrow, then dry through Monday.

- Warming trend still on track to start tomorrow and continue
  through Monday, topping out with highs around 90 on Monday.

- Cooler and more unsettled for the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Surface analysis this afternoon depicts sprawling 1020+mb high
pressure from the Northern-Central Plains across much of the
Mid-Upper Mississippi River Valley and the Great Lakes, with a
stalled weak frontal boundary over the Rockies and a cold front
offshore the PacNW. Aloft, a colder-core upper level low
continues to slowly rotate eastward atop the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes, with a sharp ridge aligned over the windward side
of the Rockies.

Weak mid-level lift and sufficient deep layer moisture under the
large low are all combining to produce scattered sprinkles and
rain showers over much of the WFO MPX coverage area into the
afternoon hours. Broad-scale motion of the precipitation shield
is east to west, so rain showers will try to penetrate drier air
over western MN while continuing over eastern MN and western
WI. That said, dewpoint depressions are still 15-ish degrees
over the MN portion of the coverage area so intensity is not
expected to be much, producing only a few hundredths of an inch
of rainfall. The bigger issue is the potential for cold air
funnels, mainly in western-central- southern MN thru the rest of
this afternoon. Stable near-surface air, owing to high
pressure, will aid in preventing any funnels from reaching the
ground but the weak easterly flow aloft combined with lift from
the deep upper low may allow turning of winds to form weak/brief
funnels through early evening. In addition, a few weak
thunderstorms are also possible given the instability but these
will also be short-lived and diminish altogether with loss of
daylight.

The precipitation will diminish this evening, but one more day
of late morning thru afternoon scattered showers is expected
for Thursday as the center of the upper low, while shifted east,
will still be broadly over MN/WI. Similarly, a few t-storms and
possibly the potential for funnel clouds exists, but this time
for eastern MN into western WI. Too early to determine the
specifics for those types of dynamics; the 12z MPX RAOB will
likely tell the story as will CAM model soundings for tomorrow
morning.

Once past tomorrow, a drier and warmer pattern will develop,
mainly due to the western ridge shifting across the Rockies
slowly moves over the Northern-Central Plains through the
weekend. At the surface, the cold front over the Pacific will
move as far east as the eastern slopes of the Rockies before
washing out. Thus, with no cold air advection and the Upper
Midwest squarely within a developing warm sector, dry conditions
with temperatures increasing through the 70s and 80s will be
the story for the end of this workweek and through the weekend.
Temperatures look to peak during this warming stretch on Monday
with highs around 90 for much of our coverage area.

This pattern will break down for the middle of next week as the
Pacific front gains impetus from a developing western trough,
dragging Baja moisture then Gulf moisture well north into the
Upper Midwest, likely producing multiple periods of rain and
thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This will
also coincide with a drop in temperatures midweek, with highs
dropping back to the mid 70s to lower 80s, which all things
considered is not too bad for the start of June.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Continued VFR with high clouds overnight clearing as we head
into the daytime. Winds calm to light and variable overnight
increasing to a light wind from the northwest during the day.
Can`t rule out the chance for some precipitation in the
afternoon, but chances are to low for TAF inclusion.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S/SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...NDC