Prior Lake, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

771
FXUS63 KMPX 141717
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures though most of the next week with expected
  warming next weekend.

- Dry today, but chances for rain Monday afternoon into early
  Tuesday, Wednesday into Thursday, and near the end of the week.
  The best overall chance is Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Generally high pressure today will keep rain chances away and
will promote clear skies during the day. There has been a
persistent stratus layer this morning that should dissipate
later this morning as we warm and mix. This will also be another
day of mixing and gusty winds just like Saturday was. Today will
be the same air mass as Saturday with similar temperatures.
Monday however will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s
as we get a brief break in our northwesterly flow to a more
westerly one. This shift is also associated with a shortwave
that will provide for some lift for a rain chance Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning. The challenge for rain for this
first chance will be dry air. Forecast soundings show a
substantial dry layer in the lower atmosphere. Whatever rain
develops will need to make it through this dry layer to reach
the surface. So light rain will struggle to make it to the
ground. This also keeps LCLs very high and instability very
elevated. Isolated thunderstorms could occur, but with elevated
and limited instability coverage and strength will be limited.

The main impact period for this week looks to be mid week as
another shortwave moves down over the Upper Midwest. This wave
is associated with the same upper low over the Hudson Bay that
brings our Monday system. This is all based on deterministic
guidance, but looking towards ensemble solutions this mid week
system is also the highest probability of the next week. The
spread for this event is more how much rain could fall rather
than if it will fall. Also some spread in the timing as
mentioned in the previous discussion. This higher confidence is
tied both to better forcing and better moisture overall with
dew points 10 to 20 degrees higher than Monday. Looking for
forecast soundings the profiles do look moist as expected, but
instability is low which will limit thunderstorm chances.
Honestly it looks like a winter sounding just about 30 degrees
warmer. These profiles favor stratiform rain rather than
convection. This could shift some, as we get close enough for
CAMs as some sneaky instability could be hiding in the coarser
model resolution. Looking towards the end of the week into next
weekend a lot of spread remains. It does look likely that there
will be another system moving into the central CONUS, but how
far south it gets varies a lot between models. On a temperature
front there does still appear to be a warm up with more WAA, but
over the past day more ensemble members have been showing the
chance for the cooler temperatures continuing. This is related
to how far south the aforementioned system digs into CONUS. The
cooler solutions are still the minority, but still something to
keep in mind as future runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

High resolution guidance has been slow to catch up on the
abundant cumulus at all of the terminals, so the main forecast
deviation was to keep the cumulus around through 00-02z.
Generally they should remain between the 040-050 level and
remain VFR throughout, with little reason to think even a brief
blip into MVFR is possible. Winds will remain blustery with
gusts up to or just above 25kts from 300-330, falling back
overnight and shifting towards 250-270 before returning to
280-300 after 12z. Upper level clouds begin to fill in towards
the end of the period with -SHRA chances arriving after period`s
end that will begin to be mentioned within the next few TAF
periods.

KMSP...-SHRA is possible towards the end of the period with
-TSRA possible, however confidence was too low to include for
 now given the timing. Expect to see mentions pop up within the
 next few periods, with scattered showers and weak -TSRA
 possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
WED...MVFR/SHRA likely, chc -TSRA/IFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...TDH