Prior Lake, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

378
FXUS63 KMPX 142033
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
333 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers this afternoon and evening, potentially
  enhancing strong wind gusts across SW Minnesota.

- Warming back to above average by Weds/Thurs, ahead of another
  surface low and rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Tonight...Strong northwest winds continue this afternoon in the
wake of a deep cyclone exiting to our northeast. Expect
sustained speeds to remain around 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to
40 mph through the early evening. A broad area of scattered
showers and a few storms is tracking southeast into portions of
southwest Minnesota this afternoon. Given the already well-mixed
boundary layer, any stronger showers that are able to develop
could further enhance the gust potential. An extra 10 to 15 mph
on top of our already windy conditions would allow surface gusts
to approach or briefly exceed severe limits (58 mph). The
general consensus among the latest CAMS is for these to track
along and south of the MN river valley in SW and S Minnesota. At
the same time, more stratiform light rain will spread through
east-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. As temperature
profiles cool down overnight, it is not out of the question for
some flakes to mix in, primarily over Wisconsin. Some hi-res
models, such as the 14.18z HRRR suggest some more narrow
corridors of locally enhanced snow showers could impact western
Wisconsin Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through Thursday...Clouds clear out from west to east,
making for a mostly sunny Tuesday with highs in the 50s. It`ll
remain breezy until the pressure gradient weakens by the
evening. Winds shift out of the south again, rising highs into
the 60s and 70s for Wednesday and Thursday. This will set the
stage for another surface low to bring showers and storms
across the region Thursday into Friday. The strength and extent
of any convection will largely be tied to LLJ Thursday evening.
Right now, southern Minnesota has the best shot to get in on any
action.

This Weekend...Temperatures will cool down back to around
normal to end the week, with ensembles continuing to hint at the
potential for another system to move through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Strong winds will be the immediate concern for the upcoming TAF
period, with 20-23kt sustained gusting to 35kts at 310-330 until
at least 03-06z. There will also be a period of roughly 6-8
hours of -SHRA potential beginning at roughly 22z through 06z,
with MVFR CIGS/VIS expected as showers move through. IFR
CIGS/VIS are possible with stronger showers, however stronger
showers would last less than 30 minutes individually and are not
expected to persist long enough to maintain within the primary
TAF. Winds will weaken after 06z but continue gusting to
18-22kts until the end of the period.

KMSP...The window for -SHRA will be roughly 23-06z, with MVFR
expected with any showers that move through. There is a slim
chance of IFR with stronger showers, with less than 10% expected
chance of occurrence as the better forcing will be southwest of
MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR late. Wind SE 10-15kts.
FRI...MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...TDH