Oakdale, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

803
FXUS63 KMPX 191941
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
241 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant weather continues into Sunday.

- Active but uncertain thunderstorm pattern sets of for much of
  next week.

- Warm and humid conditions return by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

A rather significant pattern change is underway across the
Central US this weekend as we transition out of cool and rainy
troughing to deep upper-level ridging by Tuesday. The transition
between these two patterns is yielding quite a pleasant
weekend with high pressure keeping things dry while
northerly/easterly flow keeps temperatures below average with
highs in the mid/upper 70s both today and Sunday.

Things will start to heat up by early next week as a deep upper
ridge builds into much of the central US. This "heat dome" will
bring a prolonged period of excessive heat to much of the
Central Plains and Midwest, the worst of which will stay mostly
south of here. Still, afternoon temperatures will return to the
mid/upper 80s across this region by Tuesday and likely stay that
way through the remainder of the week (pending any clouds/rain).
This pattern will also put the Upper Midwest in a "ring of
fire" type pattern with multiple weak waves riding the northern
periphery of the upper ridge, resulting in several thunderstorm
chances throughout the work week. The first of these waves could
arrive as early as early Monday morning with several more
thunderstorm chances each day through Thursday. The transient
and ill-defined nature of these waves will make timing difficult
to pinpoint. Severe potential will be even harder to assess due
to these timing questions, plus the potential for one round of
convection to significantly impact airmass stabilization ahead
of the next round. The potential for strong storms and/or heavy
rain certainly could be there given the warm and humid airmass
that will be in place, but the number of complicating factors
will make it difficult to predict severe potential beyond 24-48
hours out, and even that may be optimistic.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Low-level moisture is gradually scattering out and allowing cigs
to lift into MVFR/VFR, but this moisture is thick enough that
clouds will likely stay broken into the afternoon/early evening.
Conditions should be widespread VFR by 21Z, with several
locations seeing this already. These clouds should scatter out
altogether by 02Z or so. Winds will remain light from the north
this afternoon gradually shifting to easterly overnight and
Sunday morning.

KMSP...Ceilings currently borderline MVFR/VFR and will continue
lifting into solid VFR over the next 1-2 hours. Light north
winds will become NEerly and then easterly later this evening
and early Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...Mainly VFR. Slight chc A.M. MVFR/SHRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/SHRA/TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/SHRA/TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...DPH