Oakdale, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

989
FXUS63 KMPX 050524
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1224 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scatted thunderstorms are forecast through
  9PM/10PM this evening. A few thunderstorms could become strong
  to severe with the main threats being heavy rain, lightning,
  gusty winds, and a few instances of hail up to 1 inch.

- Quiet and warm weather is expected Sunday through at least
  Monday night. The next best chance for showers and
  thunderstorms arrives late Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

19Z satellite shows partly cloudy skies across central and
southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A muggy afternoon and
evening is expected with temperatures continuing to warm into
the 80s and dew points rising into the upper 60s and 70s. The
muggy conditions will also allow the atmosphere to continue to
destabilize with SBCAPE values peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg
range this afternoon. This instability combined with a weak
passing overhead disturbance will support some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and
evening. However, expect thunderstorms to be more pulse-like
due to rather weak 0-6km shear values around 20 kts at best,
mid-level lapse rates around 6.4 C/km, DCAPE values of 800 to
900 J/kg, and overall weak ascent. Should a thunderstorm be able
to last long enough to become strong to severe, the threat
looks to be gusty winds and instances of hail up to 1 inch.
Periods of heavy rainfall are also possible with PWATs right
around 1.5-1.6 inches. Because of the over pulse-like nature of
thunderstorms, it will be difficult to pin point exactly where
they will develop. That being said, the greatest coverage,
timing, and chances (up to 60%) of thunderstorms looks to be
across central Minnesota through 6PM. This is due to being in
closer proximity to better upper-level support. There is
generally a 30% to 40% chance of a shower or thunderstorm across
Minnesota and western Wisconsin through 9PM/10PM this evening.
Chances quickly decrease after sunset but an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for southern portions through
2AM.

Upper-level flow is forecast to be more northerly on Sunday as a
ridge begins to build into the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
This means that height rises aloft will suppress most convection
chances to close out the holiday weekend. That being said, a
stray shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon hours cannot
be ruled out for far southeastern Minnesota. Chances of this
occurring are only around 15% at best. There is a reasonable
amount of consensus that the positively aligned ridge axis will
move over the area on Monday. So Monday`s forecast calls for a
warm day with highs in the mid 80s and mostly sunny skies. By
Monday evening, shower and thunderstorm chances return as a weak
shortwave traverses the area. Because the wave passes over
later in the day/closer to sunset, overall coverage is forecast
to be on the lower end. If the shortwave traverses the area
earlier in the afternoon and around peak heating on Monday, more
areas could see showers and thunderstorms.

A more potent shortwave and an associated front looks to
approach the forecast area late Tuesday into Wednesday. This is
currently the next best chance (60% to 70%) for showers and
thunderstorms across the area. For Thursday and Friday, a
largely zonal pattern looks to set up with embedded shortwaves
passing through. There is a reasonable amount of uncertainty on
timing and strength of the shortwaves which will influence the
shower and thunderstorm chances to end the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

There will be two concerns within the TAF period with slowly
lowering visibility as a layer of fog becomes trapped beneath
the nocturnal inversion, due to the moisture from the rain
earlier in the day as well as calm winds overnight. We may see
periods of IFR visibility due to the fog, with improvement after
12z. The second concern being isolated showers or weak storms
generally east of I-35. Elected to handle the -TSRA chances with
a prob30 group although the overall chance is likely lower than
30 percent, with a peak period from 20 to 00z. After 00z, the
clouds should generally begin to dissipate quickly with FEW250
to SKC and VFR for all sites to end the period.

KMSP...Elected to add a prob30 group for afternoon to early
evening -TSRA as guidance has trended a bit higher in
probability with the most recent runs. Realistically, coverage
will be spotty enough that the chance is lower than a prob30
group would normally specify, with the better chance farther
east towards RNH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR, chc pm -SHRA. Wind SW 5-10kts.
WED...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chance IFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH