Minneapolis, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

240
FXUS63 KMPX 152340
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
640 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather risk Wednesday.

- Showers and a few storms likely Thursday/Thursday night.
  Level 1 out of 5 severe weather risk across southern
  Minnesota.

- Next chance (30%-50%) for showers comes Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Northwest winds are still breezy this afternoon, but they are
finally starting to settle down some as high pressure moves in
from the Dakotas. This high will be centered over Wisconsin
Wednesday morning. So clear skies and light winds will allow
temperatures to really drop in our eastern CWA, with lows near
20 expected out near Ladysmith.

On Wednesday, the high will move into the Great Lakes as low
pressure moves into the Dakotas. This will lead to increasing
southeast winds through the day, with 15-25 mph winds across MN
by the afternoon, with afternoon humidities falling to between
25% and 35%. This will result in elevated fire weather
conditions, with us approaching Red Flag conditions, especially
southwest of the MN River, where highs will run back up into the
lower 70s. For now, it looks like we should stay below critical
fire weather conditions, but it will something to keep an eye
on.

Thursday and Friday. This will bring our next chance for rain as
a surface front and positively trough work across the area. We
should see scattered thunderstorms develop Thursday morning as
isentropic ascent increases with the arrival of the LLJ. These
scattered showers will continue through the afternoon ahead of
an advancing cold front, that by the end of the day on Thursday
will extend from southwest MN up to western Lake Superior. The
stronger moisture/instability and signs for thunderstorms is
really south of I-80, though with thunderstorms around, low
freezing levels, and bulk shear around 40kts, some instances of
large hail can`t be ruled out, which is covered by the Marginal
(1 out of 5) Risk over southern MN in the SPC Day 3 outlook.
After the cold front passes Thursday night, shower chances will
continue into Friday for eastern MN and western WI as the
positively h5 trough works through, though by then the severe
risk will have shifted off into the Great Lakes.

Cold and dry high pressure will come in behind the system to
start this weekend, which will bring the threat for more sub-
freezing temperatures this weekend. On average, the Twin Cities
south sees their last freeze of the season the week of the 20th
of April, so there`s nothing out of ordinary of still seeing
sub-freezing lows at this point in April.

Sunday into next week. The wheels start to fall off quickly in
the world of model agreement. The trough moving through Friday
will see an h5 low develop at the southwest end of the
positively tilted trough over the 4-corners region. How this
feature travels to the northeast Sunday into early next week
continues to have wide spread in both the track and strength of
a potential system. You have everything from a deep low bringing
rain and even snow into eastern MN/western WI Sunday into
Monday, to a weaker low passing harmlessly into the Great Lakes.
Given the spread, we left the NBM PoPs as is, which increased
to 30% (western MN) to 50% (western WI) Sunday night. And this
system won`t be it, with the ensembles continuing to show
multiple chances for rain through the rest of April. Nothing big
at this point, just lots of chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

VFR conditions for all TAF sites expected throughout this
duration. Passing high cirrus at initialization will give way to
SKC conditions overnight, then high cirrus is expected to return
later morning through the afternoon hours Wednesday. Breezy NW
winds will quickly settle down a few hours after initialization,
dropping to light/variable overnight, then picks up from the SE
around daybreak with speeds becoming breezy/gusty late morning
through the afternoon hours.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, then MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 10-15kts.
FRI...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...JPC