Fridley, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

387
FXUS63 KMPX 241151
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
651 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active wet pattern set for tonight through Thursday with
  several rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

- Still some uncertainty regarding where and when the heaviest
  rain will fall as model spread remains high.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Today is looking to be the driest of the next few days, but that
doesn`t mean totally dry. A near-stationary surface front has
stalled across central and northern Iowa early this morning.
This boundary is highly sloped, with the 850 hPa front near I-90
and the 700-hPa boundary over central Minnesota. This broad
baroclinic zone has resulted in a wide area of potential lift
across the southern half of the forecast area this morning
despite a lack of organized forcing aloft. This has led to an
area of isolated to scattered showers across southern Minnesota
overnight, which a lot of model guidance struggled to resolve.
While this activity should push east through the morning, latest
CAMs guidance has been more aggressive with shower
redevelopment across the southern half of the area later this
afternoon while global models keep things mostly dry. Since CAMs
guidance resolved the overnight activity along the elevated
boundary better than the global models, their depiction of
scattered showers this afternoon can`t be disregarded as an
outlier so PoPs were increased for this afternoon accordingly.

A much more active pattern gets underway overnight tonight and
will last through Thursday night as a parade of weak upper waves
interacts with the boundary as it lifts northward into the
area. Very deep moisture return through this period, combined
with thermal profiles favorable for heavy rain rates, are likely
to favor pockets of heavy rainfall which could exceed 3" to 5"
in spots. However, models are still all over the place regarding
if, where and when the heaviest rain will fall as they struggle
to pinpoint the exact timing of these weak upper waves. At this
time about the most specific we can get with the heavy rain
threat is that a broad swath of 1" to 2" amounts seem likely
through Thursday night with some pockets of 3" to 5", possibly
even more if training storms develop. Where and when the highest
amounts will occur, and any resulting flooding impacts, remain
uncertain.

Models do agree that most of the rain should clear out overnight
Thursday leading to a mostly dry Friday with temperatures
rebounding into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Model spread then
reemerges for the weekend as the airmass continues to warm and
destabilize with another round of weak upper level disturbances
passing through. This could lead to one or more rounds of
thunderstorms across the area Saturday and/or Sunday, but
uncertainty on where and when is high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

VFR conditions with mainly passing high clouds through the early
morning hours, although a small batch of showers may develop
over far southern MN late this afternoon which could move near
KMKT. Otherwise, no precipitation is expected through the early
morning hours, then chances for precipitation increase over
southern MN during the hours leading up to 12z. Held off mention
of CB/TS due to uncertainty, but would not be surprised if
thunderstorms are embedded within the precipitation shield
expected to develop early Wednesday morning. Winds will
generally come from a northeast to east direction during this
period, with speeds at or under 10kts.

KMSP...No issues through the early morning hours Wednesday, then
chances for precipitation ramp up prior to and through sunrise,
with prevailing rainfall expected during the latter portion of
the morning push. MVFR conditions are expected as the
precipitation shield lifts north, including sub-1700ft ceilings
for much of the day tomorrow and visibilities dropping below
6sm. No CB/TS mention at this time but that may be a different
story this time tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...SHRA/MVFR. Chc TSRA. Wind E 5-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind VRB 5 kts.
SAT...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. MVFR/SHRA. Winds SSW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...JPC