Eagan, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

807
FXUS63 KMPX 140751
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
251 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and blustery today, with gusts to 40-45 mph possible in
  stronger showers, mainly in SW MN.

- Warming back to above average by Weds/Thurs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

The cold front that swept across the area Sunday evening has
set the stage for a cooler and gusty day today. Deep low-level
cold air advection behind the front will result in rather steep
lapse rates to as high as 10 kft later this afternoon. With
winds throughout this layer maxing out around 40-45 kts,
surface gusts should generally remain below wind advisory
criteria (45 mph). However, convective showers associated with a
potent secondary shortwave will overspread parts of western and
southern Minnesota later this afternoon. Given the depth of
steep lapse rates, a few of these showers could be accompanied
by gusty winds to 45 mph and perhaps even some small hail.
Further north and east, an area of more stratiform light rain
will spread from central Minnesota into western Wisconsin this
afternoon and evening, which could mix with a few flakes over
Wisconsin before tapering off toward midnight.

Cooler temperatures will remain in place on Tuesday although
still close to average for mid April. Return flow on Wednesday
will bring temperatures back into the 60s and maybe even lower
70s for Weds and Thurs. Another surface low and trailing cold
front will track across the area late Thursday into Friday with
another round of rain and possibly some elevated thunderstorms
Thursday night.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

MVFR cigs are moving into western Minnesota and will overspread
the area through the next few hours. Northwest wind gusts have
already begun to increase to 20-25kts and are expected to reach
30-35kts by mid morning. Transitioned most PROB30 groups for
-SHRA to prevailing lines as models continue to highlight
 scattered showers developing this afternoon on the backside of
 this system as it moves over Lake Superior. Brief bouts of IFR
 conditions are possible with heavier showers through this
 evening. VFR cigs return by this evening, but winds will remain
 elevated.

KMSP...Still don`t quite have the confidence to transition the
PROB30 for MSP, so left it as is for now. Otherwise, gusty
northwest winds will set in before sunrise and continue through
much of Monday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts, decreasing toward evening.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR/MVFR. RA likely with -TSRA possible. Wind SE 10-15G20
kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...Dye