Duluth, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

044
FXUS63 KDLH 111837
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
137 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm on Saturday with highs in the 60s and a 20-30% chance for
  showers for parts of northeast Minnesota.

- Rain, some thunder, and some light snow are expected Saturday
  night through Monday night.

- More rain or mixed precipitation is possible late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

It is a pleasant afternoon out there with temperatures in the
40s and 50s. There are plenty of diurnal cumulus, but not enough
to prevent sunshine for most places.

As surface high pressure moves off to the southeast, upper level
ridging will set in with southerly flow at the surface and
plenty of southwesterly warm air advection aloft. Some embedded
shortwaves embedded in the ridge is expected to result in some
clouds tonight into Saturday. Some frontogenesis over the
Canadian Border into the Arrowhead may result in some light rain
showers developing Saturday, though they will have to work
against dry air at the surface. Any showers are not expected to
much accumulation...maybe a few hundredths of an inch.

Another minor concern for Saturday is some potentially dry and
breezy conditions with relative humidity falling between 30 and
40 percent and winds gusting to around or slightly higher than
20 mph. Fire weather conditions may be elevated a bit, but are
not expected to be critical or near-critical at this time.

A Colorado low will move in going into Sunday, bringing more
widespread chances for rain (40-80% chance). Enough instability
may be in place (~300-800 J/kg or so) to support some embedded
thunder, but severe parameters are absent with an inversion
keeping any isolated storms elevated, and instability likely
not being enough to produce hail. A secondary low will move in
from Canada Sunday night into Monday, keeping precipitation
chances going, but also bringing in some colder air. Rain may
mix with snow from north to south Sunday night through Monday
night. At this point, there is decent agreement that while
temperatures may cool enough for a mix or changeover to snow,
surface temperatures are likely to be slow to fall below
freezing. Thus, accumulations will likely be minor and largely
limited to grassy/elevated surfaces. If temperatures trend
cooler, a few inches of localized accumulation cannot be ruled
out along the Canadian border, but even if that case ended up
proving true, any accumulations shouldn`t top a few inches due
to warm temperatures and low SLRs.

From Saturday night through Monday night, we can expect some
fairly decent rainfall amounts especially north of US-2 in
northeast Minnesota. In general, up to around half an inch to an
inch of rain and any melted snow. Some locally higher amounts
are possible (~30% chance for amounts exceeding one inch).
Expect lesser amounts further south.

The low moves off to the east going into Tuesday, and a bit of
residual light lake-effect snow is possible along the South
Shore going into Tuesday before precipitation ends everywhere.
We may sit in-between systems going into Wednesday with some
warmer weather, then another system could bring some rain or
mixed precipitation later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Light southwest winds becoming south later tonight. Aside from
some diurnal cumulus clouds around the region, plenty of
sunshine is expected this afternoon. Ceiling heights are
expected to remain VFR. Wind speeds pick up from the south
Saturday morning with a 20 percent chance for light rain
showers at HIB/INL late Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Light south winds tonight. Speeds increase to around 5-10 kt
with gusts to 15 or locally 20 kt Saturday. A low pressure
system will bring some rain chances Sunday into Monday. Wind
direction becomes northeasterly on Sunday with gusts to 20 kt,
then northwesterly on Monday with more blustery conditions. Wind
gusts from 20 to 30 kt are expected through Tuesday morning.
There is a 10-20% chance for some localized gales during this
period as well. Expect winds to gradually decrease Tuesday
afternoon.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS