Cottage Grove, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

274
FXUS63 KMPX 011142
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
642 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Degraded air quality due to Canadian wildfire smoke across MN
  through Monday.

- Warming trend continues, topping out with highs in the lower
  90s on Monday.

- A few strong to severe storms possible Monday night into
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

High pressure which has trailed a backdoor cold front will
continue to make its way SSE`ward over the Ohio River Valley
today. As this occurs, surface flow will shift southerly
allowing for warmer temperatures to advect in. Forecast highs
today are expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday
with much of Minnesota reaching the upper 80s to near 90 across
western Minnesota. Western Wisconsin will be slightly cooler
with temps around the 80 degree mark.

A challenge with the forecast over the past couple of days has
been the vertical depth of the Canadian wildfire smoke. Smoke
continues to remain prevalent aloft however surface observations
showing only infrequent and isolated visibility impacts. Based
off of these less impactful trends, decided to reduce wording
for coverage and extent of near-surface smoke in the grids.
Despite that most smoke remains aloft, an Air Quality Alert
remains in effect through Monday evening for all of Minnesota.

Monday will be a near repeat of todays forecast with high
temperatures even warmer with 90 degrees being common. By Monday
night into Tuesday, low pressure remains on track with
providing our next shot of showers and thunderstorms. Low
pressure over the PacNorthwest is expected to deepen as it makes
its way eastward across the Canadian Prairies. Southwesterly
winds will increase to 20- 25 kts especially across southwestern
Minnesota. As of now, instability for any convective activity
is best over western Minnesota near the right rear entrance of a
~125 kt jet streak. This factor as well as 25kt Shear and
~2,500 J/kg of MLCAPE will allow for a few strong to severe
multicellular clusters capable of produce large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Thus a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe storms has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center. As
for QPF through Tuesday night, most areas could see at least
three quarters of an inch to an inch with locally higher amounts
possible.

Once the cold front moves through, temperatures return to the
mid 70s for most. Zonal flow will become the primary regime
aloft allowing for a few chances of showers and thunderstorms
throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Some slight visibility reductions are being observed from mist
and/or smoke. Dew point depressions at RWF suggest smoke there.
As mixing begins this morning, models indicate smoke thinning at
the surface, so only have a tempo until 14Z there. Otherwise,
smoke aloft will continue with light south winds.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.
TUE...MVFR/RA, chc IFR w/-TSRA. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR cigs. Wind N to NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Borghoff