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Burnsville, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Burnsville MN
National Weather Service Forecast for: Burnsville MN
Issued by: National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen, MN
Updated: 1:48 pm CDT Aug 12, 2025
 
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 80. West northwest wind around 10 mph.
Sunny

Tonight

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 59. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light west  after midnight.
Mostly Clear

Wednesday

Wednesday: Areas of smoke between 3pm and 4pm. Sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph.
Areas Smoke

Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph after midnight.
Partly Cloudy

Thursday

Thursday: A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 4pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 78. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Slight Chance
Showers then
Slight Chance
T-storms
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. South southeast wind around 10 mph.
Chance
T-storms

Friday

Friday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10am, then a slight chance of showers between 10am and 1pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. South wind 5 to 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Slight Chance
Showers
Friday
Night
Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. South southeast wind around 5 mph.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Chance
T-storms
Saturday

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 87. East southeast wind around 5 mph.
Chance
T-storms

Hi 80 °F Lo 59 °F Hi 80 °F Lo 62 °F Hi 78 °F Lo 67 °F Hi 86 °F Lo 70 °F Hi 87 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Air Quality Alert
 

This Afternoon
 
Sunny, with a high near 80. West northwest wind around 10 mph.
Tonight
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light west after midnight.
Wednesday
 
Areas of smoke between 3pm and 4pm. Sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph.
Wednesday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph after midnight.
Thursday
 
A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday Night
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. South southeast wind around 10 mph.
Friday
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10am, then a slight chance of showers between 10am and 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Night
 
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. South southeast wind around 5 mph.
Saturday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. East southeast wind around 5 mph.
Saturday Night
 
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind around 5 mph.
Sunday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. East wind around 5 mph.
Monday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Burnsville MN.

Weather Forecast Discussion
069
FXUS63 KMPX 121710
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1210 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke is moving out this morning, but another short round
  will arrive late tonight and Wednesday.

- The pattern will become more active late week into early next
  week. A stalled front will support multiple rounds of showers
  and thunderstorms, capable of heavy rainfall totals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Showers and storms just west of the metro into southwestern MN
continue to decay early this morning as they outrun any
lingering instability farther to the west. A cold front from
northeast to west central MN will continue to the southeast this
morning. Some lingering smoke ahead of the front has reduced
visibilities to 4 to 6 miles, and in areas with low Td
depressions, some fog is mixing in as well. The smoke will exit
to the east with the cold front this morning, leading to better
air quality today. Mild and drier air will push into the region
today, accompanied by high pressure. Dew points this afternoon
will only be in the 50s to low 60s.

A secondary cold front will drop south into northern MN
tonight and stall across central MN and central WI Wednesday.
Another band of smoke will accompany the front. While the band
will be fairly narrow, the HRRR and RAP near surface smoke
products show a greater concentration than Monday`s round.
Visibilities could be reduced to 3 or 4 miles with it before the
front lifts back north as a warm front Wednesday night.

A short wave trough will send a disturbance east across the
northern Plains to the Upper Midwest Wednesday night and
Thursday morning. A 40-50 kt LLJ will develop across the Plains
Wednesday evening and foster a cluster of thunderstorms over SD
that will progress east. By late evening the cluster will begin
reaching western MN, but despite the strong LLJ, limited
instability and poor mid level lapse rates should allow it to
weaken. PoPs remain around 40 percent through Thursday morning.
Pwats do increase to as high as 1.75 inches, and with the LLJ
persisting through Thursday, there could still be pockets of
locally heavy rain.

Another cold front will drop south and stall over the Upper
Midwest Thursday night. Several disturbances rippling along it
and on the northern periphery of a building ridge to the south
will bring several chances for thunderstorms through early next
week. A persistent LLJ, potentially very high pwats in excess of
2 inches, a reservoir of steep mid level lapse rates, and MBE
velocities less than 5 kts with the LLJ and cloud bearing winds
of similar direction and magnitude are all favorable for rounds
of heavy rainfall. However, despite the LLJ, relatively dry air
at 850 mb will limit the moisture flux and the EML could provide
strong capping at times. There is potential for many rounds of
thunderstorms with some stationary, training, or backbuilding
potential that could lead to an elevated flood risk. PoPs remain
in the chance category for now. Total QPF through early next
week vary for each ensemble system with the GFS on the lighter
side and the ECMWF/CMC on the heavier side. Some members of the
latter camp are greater than 4 inches, including the
deterministic 00Z ECMWF with a very large area exceeding 3
inches across the southern half of MN and northern and central
WI, and greater than 4 inches centered along the I-94 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

A cold front has moved east of all terminals to the west of EAU
and should be actively moving through EAU to open the 18z TAF
period. Have observed notable improvements to the cigs/vis
following the frontal passage. Relatively quiet forecast period,
with WNW winds around ~10kts and the occasional gust upwards of
20 kts possible. Diurnal Cu ~3k feet will dissipate as mixing
ceases this evening. Clear and calm night ahead will support the
development of ground fog. Included TEMPOs at STC/MKT/EAU where
confidence in MVFR vis reductions is the greatest.

KMSP...No additional concerns at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Strus
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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